Energy Demand And Emissions From Transportation Sector In Malaysia

Energy Efficiency Assignment No. 1

Assignment Title:

ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM 2005 TO 2030 Edited by:

SAJJAD NAGHAVI

Lecturer:

T.M.I. Mahlia

Academic Year-(Semester): Session 2007/2008-(Sem. 2)

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Contents

List of Tables List of Figures Abstract Nomenclature 1. Introduction 1.1. Background 1.2. Significance to the study 1.3. Scope of the study 2. Literature Review 2.1. Features of GHGs 2.2. Types of GHGs 2.3. Summery 3. Survey Data 4. Methodology 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Study Procedure 4.3. Data Analysis 4.4. Summery 5. Results and Discussions 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Finding of the study 5.3. Summery 6. Conclusions Reference

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List of tables

Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector

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Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (ktoe)

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Table 3, emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector 10 Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe)

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Table 5, emissions produced by fuels

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List of Figures

Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit

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Figure 2, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe)

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Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe)

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Figure 4, demand of energy with today’s policy

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Figure 5, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2005

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Figure 6, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2030

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Figure 7, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia

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Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 25 years

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Abstract In this report I am going to estimate the increase of consumption energy and the effect of that on the environment because of producing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and emission of that in the atmosphere of earth. Emissions in the process of transportation is one of the main source which produce adverse effects on the environment that influence human health, organism growth, climatic changes and so on. These data are not exactly correct but we can calculate approximately from the information of past years. In order to calculate the potential emissions produced by these activities, the types of fuels use should be identified. This study attempts to predict the pattern of emissions from 2005 to 2020 due to increaese the mount of transportation types and numbers. The study found that the petrol,diesel and ATF will produce huge emissions in this country if doesn’t happen any development in the kind of engine and new the source of energy like renewable anergy.

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Nomenclature c, k

constant values

Emi

total emission for a unit of transportation sector in year i (kg, ton)

TFin Type of Fuel n in year i (ktoe) EFpn

Emission p from fossil Fuel type n (kg/GJ)

x

year predicted–year start

y

predicted value

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1. Introduction: 1.1.Background Increasing the rate of development in the all countries grow the need of transportation rapidly. It causes the need of energy increase and in order of that the emission of not suitable gas make greater in amount. Malaysia is one of the developing countries that because of improving in transportation the rate of the demand of energy is escalading swiftly. In this case it is very important to know about the influence of this huge amount of energy. Transportation is the fastest-growing source of GHGs and the largest end-use source of CO2, NOx, SO2 and CO, which are the most prevalent GHGs Estimates of GHGs emissions do not include additional "lifecycle" emissions related to transportation, such as the extraction and refining of fuel and the manufacture of vehicles, which are also a significant source of domestic and international GHG emissions [2]. The problem that we am going to study is predicting grow of demand of energy in case of transportation and determination of influence of the GHG emission in our life. So we must evaluate the trend of GHGs emissions between years of 2005 to 2030. Finally with the compare of result the strategies that country should consider in the future will obtain. Although the values of the report for future years are anticipated, they are good estimation to achieve to the target of this report. 1.2.Significance to the study As we know about Kyoto Protocol by the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in December 1997, which prescribed legally binding GHG emission target about 5% below their 1990 level, it is necessery to estimate the situation of demand of energy in this country. About 160 countries including Malaysia now adopt this protocol and it’s very necessery to analyze the situation of GNGs emissions in the transportation sector as one of the main source of GNGs emissions. 1.3.Scope of the study The scope of this study is the data of energy demand and emissions of transportation sector in previous years and the ratio of different type of fuels consumption in those years. Next from the charts of data we can extract new data and results.

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2. Literature Review 2.1. Features of GHGs GHGs differ in their ability to trap heat. For example, one ton of emissions of CO2 have a different effect than one ton of emissions of methane. As a GHG, it is well known that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is one of the key reasons for the degradation of the environment. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is observed have been increased rapidly over the past decades. A common features of this gas is it does not impede the passage of short wave radiation through the atmosphere, and absorb most of the thermal infrared radiation emitted from the surface of the earth. This absorbed radiation is re-emitted, both back to the earth and out to space. The role of the trace gases is analogous to the glass in a greenhouse, and hence calls this gas as GHG and the temperature rise engender the global greenhouse effect. The global greenhouse effect may be one of the greatest challenges ever to face humankind[1]. 2.2. Types of GHGs CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas and produced when any form of carbon is burned in an excess of oxygen. Due to this reason, CO2 greenhouse effect in the world has been enhanced. This means that the atmosphere is trapping more heat that has to escape to space. This enhancement has linked the greenhouse effect is causing global warming. CO2 is the largest contributor of greenhouse effect out of all the gasses produce by human activities. Emissions of Sulphur oxides are the result of oxidization of the available sulphur in the fuels. Sulphur oxides are a health hazard and are important contributors to acid rain [3]. These emissions are primarily linked to power plants to generate electricity with coal. The most important part of the SOx is SO2. This emission could increase significantly, however, if high-sulphur coal is used to produce alternative transportation fuels such as methanol or electricity for electric vehicles in the future. The major source of NOx production from nitrogen-bearing fuels such as certain coals and oil is the conversion of fuel bound nitrogen to NOx during combustion. During combustion, the nitrogen bound in the fuel is released as a free radical and ultimately forms free N2, or NO. Fuel NOx can contribute as much as 50% of total emissions when combusting oil and as much as 80% when combusting coal. Although the complete mechanism is not fully understood, there are two primary paths of formation. The first involves the oxidation of volatile nitrogen species during the initial stages of combustion. During the release and prior to the oxidation of the volatiles, nitrogen reacts to form several intermediaries which are then oxidized into NO. If the volatiles evolve into a reducing atmosphere, the nitrogen evolved can readily be made to form nitrogen gas, rather than NOx. The second path involves the combustion of nitrogen contained in the char matrix during the combustion of the char portion of the fuels. This reaction occurs much more 8

slowly than the volatile phase. Only around 20% of the char nitrogen is ultimately emitted as NOx, since much of the NOx that forms during this process is reduced to nitrogen by the char, which is nearly pure carbon. Carbon monoxide, with the chemical formula CO, is a colorless, odorless, and tasteless gas. It is the product of the partial combustion of carbon-containing compounds, notably in internal-combustion engines. Carbon monoxide forms in preference to the more usual carbon dioxide when there is a reduced availability of oxygen present during the combustion process. Carbon monoxide has significant fuel value, burning in air with a characteristic blue flame, producing carbon dioxide. Despite its serious toxicity, CO plays a highly useful role in modern technology, being a precursor to a myriad of products. It consists of one carbon atom covalently bonded to one oxygen atom. 2.3. Summery In this chapter we tried to define the title of study completely and with all necessary pointes that relevant to the subject. It is necessary to describe and understand topic absolutely before start to carry out it. So we need to define the relation between these parts completely and make the borders of research obvious.

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3.

Survey Data

The data used for this study are the final energy used by transportation sector data, types of fuels that were used in previous years and CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel which use by transportation sector. All of the survey data are shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3. To change the units of data together we can use this term :{ 1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.868 GJ}

Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Total(kt oe) 2398 3477 5387 7827 8951 10201 9793 11393 12071 13137 13442

(Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector)

Year petrol diesel ATF 1980 1296 847 1985 2057 1032 1990 2889 1826 1995 4477 2168 1996 5161 2417 1997 5574 3106 1998 5849 2311 1999 6778 3174 2000 6378 4103 2001 6820 4534 2002 6940 4680

fuel oil 250 386 628 1158 1333 1437 1618 1423 1574 1762 1785

NG

41 17 32 75 9 13 4 5 4

Elect 0 0 0 5 4 5 4 0 7 14 28

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 4 5.17 4

(Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (ktoe))

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Fuel PETR OL DIES EL ATF NG

CO2 (kg/GJ)

Emission SO2 NOx (g/GJ) (g/GJ)

CO (g/GJ) 3490.8 1368.76 6

73.00

2.28

74.00

2.34

284.55

102.66

72.00 53.90

2.30 0.00

310.16 488.00

132.06 214.00

(Table 3, CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector)

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4. Methodology 4.1.Introduction This section discusses the methodology of the study. The main purpose of the study is to demonstrate the visual diagrams of the obtained values. Schwartz [4] states that scenarios are tools for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments and the end result might not be an accurate picture of tomorrow, but can give a better decision about the future.

4.2.Study Procedure This analysis is generally based on modelling methodologies to figure out the potential emissions from transportation in Malaysia in the future. For this purpose, firstly, the energy demand and types of fuels use in transportation sector should be recognized. Some of the data are already available but other data have to be calculated with admiration to the country energy consumption trend. The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve fitting. The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between variable x as a function of available data and a response y, which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fits the data, but does not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the following form [5]: (1) The common gases include CO2, SO2, NOx and CO. The emission pattern of transportation can be calculated by the following equation: EMi = (TFi1 * EFp1+ TFi2 * EFp2+ TFi3 * EFp3+...+ TFin * EFpn) (2) Whit these two initially equations the needed data can be extracted.

4.3.Data Analysis There are three types of data to be analysed for instance energy demand data, consumption of different fuels and amount of GHGs emissions from each fuel. Demand of energy data is from about 3 decade ago till now, so I must anticipate future demand of energy with considering to the previous data. Based on the data shown in Table 1, using Eq. (1), the total energy demand in Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted by the following equation: Y1 = -77.15x2 + 2033.x + 261.7 R² = 0.983

(3)

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Based on the data shown in Table 2, using Eq. (1), the fuel use in transportation of Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted. The amount of petroleum used for transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: Y2 = 6.286x2 + 139.3x + 1204. R² = 0.979 (4) The amount of diesel used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: Y3 = 10.66x2 - 73.24x + 1015. R² = 0.918 (5) The amount of ATF used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: Y4 = 1.575x2 + 40.72x + 194.4 R² = 0.968 (6) The amount of fuel oil used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: Y5 = -0.320x2 + 7.591x - 9.638 R² = 0.346 (7) The amount of Natural gas (NG) used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: Y6 = 0.101x2 - 1.563x + 2.550 R² = 0.613 (8) The amount of electronic engine used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: Y7 = 0.025x2 - 0.359x + 0.458 R² = 0.821 (9) The results of the predicted data based on Eqs. (3) to (9) from the years 2005 to 2030 are tabulayed in Table (4) and ilustrated in figure (1). Figure (2) and (3) show the curves of fuels but they shown in two separate figure because the masure of the values of them have big diffrent and if they shown in one figure the flactuation of them are not visible. The fuel amount trend will be used to predict future potential emissions. The emissions produced from fuel burden for trasportation is calculated in terms of (ktoe) that is a type of unit of energy.

4.4.Summery In this chapter we defined the method of calculations of this study and we found

the procedure of carrying out extracting new data from limited data for past. Responds of these equation are our source to obtain appropriate conclusion for this study.

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Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Total Petrol Diesel ATF Fuel oil NG Elect 16664.75 8615.25 5846.5 2196.775 0 26.6 7.108 17710.96 9075.136 6316.92 2317.82 0 30.188 8.024 18793.79 9547.594 6808.66 2442.015 0 33.978 8.99 19913.24 10032.62 7321.72 2569.36 0 37.97 10.006 21069.31 10530.23 7856.1 2699.855 0 42.164 11.072 22262 11040.4 8411.8 2833.5 0 46.56 12.188 23491.31 11563.15 8988.82 2970.295 0 51.158 13.354 24757.24 12098.46 9587.16 3110.24 0 55.958 14.57 26059.79 12646.35 10206.8 3253.335 0 60.96 15.836 27398.96 13206.82 10847.8 3399.58 0 66.164 17.152 28774.75 13779.85 11510.1 3548.975 0 71.57 18.518 30187.16 14365.46 12193.7 3701.52 0 77.178 19.934 31636.19 14963.63 12898.7 3857.215 0 82.988 21.4 33121.84 15574.38 13624.9 4016.06 0 89 22.916 34644.11 16197.71 14372.5 4178.055 0 95.214 24.482 36203 16833.6 15141.4 4343.2 0 101.63 26.098 37798.51 17482.07 15931.6 4511.495 0 108.248 27.764 39430.64 18143.1 16743.2 4682.94 0 115.068 29.48 41099.39 18816.71 17576 4857.535 0 122.09 31.246 42804.76 19502.9 18430.2 5035.28 0 129.314 33.062 44546.75 20201.65 19305.7 5216.175 0 136.74 34.928 46325.36 20912.98 20202.5 5400.22 0 144.368 36.844 48140.59 21636.87 21120.7 5587.415 0 152.198 38.81 49992.44 22373.34 22060.1 5777.76 0 160.23 40.826 51880.91 23122.39 23020.9 5971.255 0 168.464 42.892 53806 23884 24003 6167.9 0 176.9 45.008 (Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe) )

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(Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit (ktoe))

(Figure 2, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe))

(Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe)) 15

5. Results and Discussions 5.1.Introduction After extracting new data from the primary data now must discuss about them and obtain useful information from them to fide what we should do in the future. Energy demand, fuels types and emissions are three objects that are important to consider in this study.

5.2.Finding of the study If we look to the table (4) and suppose to grow up of the consumption of energy in the future years it is obviously this huge amount of energy which use consume just in transportation has some very unsuitable efficiency on the environment and human. If today’s policy continue in future the demand of energy for transportation sector increase about 3 times-from 16664 (ktoe) in 2005 to 53806 (ktoe) in 2030. The diagram of energy demand shown in fig. (4). As it is shown the slope of increasing of energy demand is approximately constant and we know the best way to decrease this slope is optimising the consumption of energy. It folloes that a deep change must accure in the model of consuming energy in this country.

(Figure 4, demand of energy with today’s policy) In these days the fuels are used by the transportation devices consist of 6 types but only three types of them are major-Petroleum and Diesel. This study show till 2030 the consumption of petroleum increase 3 times in compare of 2005 and consumption of diesel grow about 5 times. One of the most important pointes that we can find from the Table (4) is 16

the proportion of fuels and variation of them in duration of these 25 years. In figure (1) we can see that composition of fuels in system of transportation in Malaysia is consist of three item; Petroleum, Diesel and ATF. If we compare the proportion of fuels in stage of 2005 and stage of 2030 we find that the pattern of consumption of fuels is not different, just we can see the percentage of using Diesel increase and eight percent decrease in using petroleum (As we can see in the figure (5) and (6)). It is very important that the government change the business as usual policy to a new and developed policy by using new technologies of engine for vehicles and other part of transportation sector such as Hybrid engine and Fuel cell and electrical engine. Because we are confident that this amount of fuels will not be available in those years so cost of them will be too high-priced for any country like Malaysia.

(Figure 5, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2005)

(Figure 6, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2030) 17

GHGs emissions are the product of combustion in the engine of motorcycles, vehicles, airplanes, locomotives and etc. By using table (2) and (3) the amount of emissions that produce from the fuels in sector of transportation is calculated. Table (5) show the predicted values of four GHGs from 2005 to 2030. As a result of this table we find the amount of CO2 has big variation with other gases and the mortal effect of that is more than others. The variations of emissions are shown in figure (7). On the other hand this huge amount of emissions just in the transportation sector is not acceptable for today and it is worth for near future. The other gases like SO2 are so destroyer. So it’s one potential for acid rain. New policy is necessary for whole of the countries that have similar transportation system like Malaysia.

Year r 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CO2 (kton)

SO2 (kton) NOx (kton) 1.60673317 592.439053 51127.35062 2 7 54363.3865 626.043392 1.70837722 8 1 57713.8529 1.81361345 660.667226 8 7 3 1.92244188 696.310556 61178.7498 3 1 64758.0770 2.03486249 732.973381 5 8 6 68451.8347 2.15087530 770.655702 2 2 9 72260.0228 2.27048029 809.357519 3 5 8 76182.6413 2.39367747 849.078832 6 7 5 80219.6903 2.52046684 889.819640 1 8 9 2.65084840 931.579944 84371.1697 8 9 88637.0795 2.78482215 974.359744 1 7 7 93017.4197 2.92238809 1018.15904 5 5 97512.1904 3.06354622 1062.97783 2 2 1 102121.391 3.20829653 1108.816118 5 8 3.35663904 106845.023 1155.673901 3 111683.085 3.50857373 1203.551179

CO (kton) 1296.67841 1366.61656 1438.50304 1512.33784 1588.12098 1665.85244 1745.53223 1827.16035 1910.7368 1996.26157 2083.73467 2173.15611 2264.52586 2357.84395 2453.11037 2550.32511 18

7 2021 116635.5774

3.66410062

121702.500 2 126883.853 4

3.82321969 1 3.98593095 2 4.15223440 2 4.32213004 1 4.49561786 9 4.67269788 6 4.85337009 2 5.03763448 6

2022 2023 2024

132179.637

2027 2028 2029 2030

1405.25525 2958.66737

1458.23000 7 1512.22425 143114.4956 9 148753.570 1567.23800 6 8 154507.075 1623.27125 9 2 1680.32399 160375.0117 2 1738.39622 166357.378 5.22549107 7 (Table 5, emissions produced by fuels)

2025 137589.8511 2026

1252.44795 2649.48819 3 1302.36422 2750.59959 3 1353.29998 2853.65932 9

3065.62376 3174.52847 3285.38151 3398.18288 3512.93258 3629.63061

(Figure 7, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia)

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(Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 25 years) From the figure (8) it is shown that the carbon dioxide increase is a function of the energy consumption multiplied by the percentage of fuel mix on and the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by the fossil fuel from every unit of energy consumption in transportation sector. The potential CO2 reduction by gradually introducing fuel substitutions for transportation machines is only way to decrease the greenhouse effects on environment.

5.3.Summery In this chapter all need data extract from the primary data. These data which were about the energy demand in transportation sector and the fuel types and emissions from fuels are used to illustrate the situation of future in transportation and huge effect of GHGs emissions.

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6. Conclusions By evaluating the various data of consuming energy by transportation systems and effects of that we are able to plan and develop new policy for future system of transportation. It is very important for us to think about the future world, our environment and health of human. Emissions from transportation sector make up one of the largest emissions for the country. Government intervention to abate these emissions is urgently needed now. The study also shows that switching from transportation fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as Fuel cell and Hybrid engines offers a solution and multiple benefits to the utilities, society and most importantly to protect the environment. The Malaysian government has to find ways to reduce these emissions, such as by introducing emissions taxation which can be used to finance renewable energy research projects or to replant trees in the rain forest of the country. The data from the study can be used as a basis for calculating cost benefit analysis for implementation of new renewable technologies for transportation and developing an emission abatement program in Malaysia.

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References:

1. T.M.I. Mahlia,(2001) Emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia, Renewable 2. 3. 4. 5.

Energy 27 (2002) 293–300. Deborah Gordon, Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the Environment,NY, Dorling Kindersley, 1998. NOx Removal. Branch Environmental Corp. Retrieved on 2007-12-26. Schwartz P. The art of the long view: planning in an uncertain world. New York: Doubleday, 1996. Klienbaum DG. Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. USA: ITP Co., 1998.

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