Energy Demand And Emissions From Transportation Sector In Malaysia From 2003 To 2025

Assignment Title:

ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA FROM 2003 TO 2025

Edited by:

Emad Sadeghinezhad KGH080002

Lecturer:

T.M.I. Mahlia

Academic Year-(Semester): Session 2008/2009-(Sem. 2)

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Contents

List of Tables List of Figures Abstract Nomenclature 1. Introduction 3. Survey Data 4. Methodology 5. Results and Discussions 6. Conclusions Reference

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 13 18 19

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List of tables

Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector

7

Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (ktoe)

7

Table 3, emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector 8 Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe)

10

Table 5, emissions produced by fuels

15

2

List of Figures Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit 11 Figure 2, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe)

12

Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe)

12

Figure 4, demand of energy with today’s policy

13

Figure 5, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2005

14

Figure 6, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2030

16

Figure 7, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia

17

Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 25 years

17

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Abstract: Malaysia as a developing country is reported to perform well in economy and industrialization. As the same time, the usage of energy is increasing year by year. Energy is a key component in Malaysia’s economy, as the development and utilization of energy resources have contributed and will continue to contribute to the industrialization of the economy and the socio economic welfare of the people. This study will focus on the road transport in Malaysia. There is a need to focus on this sector as rapid industrialization, high economic and population growth have accelerated the ownership of motorised vehicle.we will show in this study energy demand and emissions from transportation sector in malaysia from 2003 to 2025.

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Nomenclature c, k

constant values

Emi

total emission for a unit of transportation sector in year i (kg, ton)

TFin Type of Fuel n in year i (ktoe) EFpn

Emission p from fossil Fuel type n (kg/GJ)

x

year predicted–year start

y

predicted value

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1. Introduction: As all are aware, in Malaysia, the transport sector is the largest consumption of the petroleum products. It is because of the use of the petrol as a source to move their vehicles. A study conducted by Pusat Tenaga Malaysia estimated that the share of final energy use by the transport sector will decline from 36.2% in 2000 to about 28% of total energy use by the year 2020. It is anticipated that the market for private vehicles will reach saturation point and at the same time there will be an increase in the use of public transport. The share of freight transport is also expected to increase. As a whole, consumption of fuel by the transport sector will still increase but at a slower phase. The transportation sector not only consumes a big portion of petroleum products, it is also the largest polluter. Emissions from vehicles contain carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur oxide (SOx), particulate matter (PM) and other chemicals. Aside from the emissions of SOx and PM, mobile sources dominate the emissions of NOx, HC and particularly CO. The explosion in demand for the transportation of both people and goods is one of the causes that led to high growth rates in demand for oil products. In most Asian countries this growth can be expected to be more rapid than growth of the economy as a whole. There has been little success in reducing energy consumption and emissions by mobile sources. It is important to plan and undertake various steps to prevent future adverse impacts of transport energy use on the environment and public health.

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2. Survey data: The data used for this study are the final energy used by transportation sector data, types of fuels that were used in previous years and CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel which use by transportation sector. All of the survey data are shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3. To change the units of data together we can use this term :{ 1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.868 GJ} Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Total(Ktoe) 2398 3477 5387 7827 8951 10201 9793 11393 12071 13137 13442

(Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector) petrol diesel ATF fuel oil NG 1296 847 250 0 2057 1032 386 0 2889 1826 628 41 0 4477 2168 1158 17 5 5161 2417 1333 32 4 5574 3106 1437 75 5 5849 2311 1618 9 4 6778 3174 1423 13 0 6378 4103 1574 4 7 6820 4534 1762 5 14 6940 4680 1785 4 28 (Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (Ktoe)

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Elect 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 4 5.17 4

Fuel PETROL DIESEL ATF NG

CO2 (kg/GJ) 73.00 74.00 72.00 53.90

Emission SO2 (g/GJ) NOx (g/GJ) 2.28 1368.76 2.34 284.55 2.30 310.16 0.00 488.00

CO (g/GJ) 3490.86 102.66 132.06 214.00

(Table 3, CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel per GJ )

3. Methodology: This analysis is generally based on modelling methodologies to figure out the potential emissions from transportation in Malaysia in the future. For this purpose, firstly, the energy demand and types of fuels use in transportation sector should be recognized. Some of the data are already available but other data have to be calculated with admiration to the country energy consumption trend. Transport infrastructure in Malaysia has been growing at a phenomenal rate. The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve fitting. The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between variable x as a function of available data and a response y, which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fits the data, but does not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the following form [5]: (1) The common gases include CO2, SO2, NOx and CO. The emission pattern of transportation can be calculated by the following equation: EMi = (TFi1 * EFp1+ TFi2 * EFp2+ TFi3 * EFp3+...+ TFin * EFpn) (2) Whit these two initially equations the needed data can be extracted.

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4. Data Analysis: There are three types of data to be analysed for instance energy demand data, consumption of different fuels and amount of GHGs emissions from each fuel. Demand of energy data is from about 3 decade ago till now, so I must anticipate future demand of energy with considering to the previous data. Based on the data shown in Table 1, using Eq. (1), the total energy demand in Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.9925 Y = - 0.0515x 3 + 20.084x 2 + 97.07x + 2426.9 (3) Based on the data shown in Table 2, using Eq. (1), the fuel use in transportation of Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted. The amount of petroleum used for transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.9849 Y = 0.576 x 3 + 26.036 x 2 33.303x + 1380 (4) The amount of diesel used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.9407 Y = 0.761x 3 15.431x 2 + 154.82 x + 782.93 (5) The amount of ATF used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.9688 Y = 1.5752 x 2 + 40.729 x + 194.46 (6) The amount of fuel oil used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.4233 Y = 0.0494 x 3 + 1.3062 x 2 8.7561x + 39.207 (7)

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The amount of Natural gas (NG) used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.7469 Y = 0.0119 x 3 0.3075 x 2 + 2.0084 x 1.0856 (8) The amount of electronic engine used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation: R²=0.8468 Y = 0.0012 x 3 0.0174 x 2 + 0.0148 x + 0.0776 (9) The results of the predicted data based on Eqs. (3) to (9) from the years 2005 to 2030 are tabulayed in !!!!! !! M $% , 9 , ( , , 9 9 1 M , , ( , , ( , , 9 , , ( % , 9 1 1 % , 1 1 2 , 1 %

2 55 55! 55# 55' 55* 5555/ 5$5 5$$ 5$ 5$ 5$! 5$# 5$'

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8 D 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

"3 D * # ! # ' *# -/ $5! $ 5 $ $#$*/ 5 -

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

30905 32291 33705 35148 36619 38116 39642 41194 42772

6615 6104 5514 4841 4083 3234 2293 1254 116

23933 26141 28492 30990 33640 36446 39413 42546 45848

3858 4017 4179 4344 4512 4684 4858 5036 5217

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

255 284 315 349 385 422 463 506 551

38 41 45 50 54 59 64 69 75

(Table 4, predicted data for the years 2003 to 2025- Fuel Type (ktoe) ) 100%

80%

Electricity NG

60%

Fuel Oil ATF 40%

Diesel Petrol

20%

0% 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

(Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit (ktoe))

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7000

70

6000

60

5000

50

4000

40

3000

30

2000

20

1000

10

0

Electricity, NG (Ktoe)

80

Petrol Diesel ATF Fuel Oil NG Electricity

0 0

5

10

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

(Figure 2, the curves of fuels-unit (ktoe)) 6

80 70

5 60 4 50 3

40 30

2

(electricity) Ktoe

fuel used(fuel oil,NG) Ktoe

Diesel, petrol, ATF (Ktoe)

8000

20 1 10 0

0 1990

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

year

(Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe))

12

Fuel Oil NG Electricity

2000

7000

1800 1600

6000

1400

5000

1200 1000

4000

800

3000

ATF (Ktoe)

Petrol, Diesel (Ktoe)

8000

Petrol Diesel ATF

600

2000

400

1000

200

0

0 1980

1985

1990

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

(Figure 4, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe))

5. Results and Discussions After extracting new data from the primary data now must discuss about them and obtain useful information from them to fide what we should do in the future. Energy demand, fuels types and emissions are three objects that are important to consider in this study.If we look to the table (4) and suppose to grow up of the consumption of energy in the future years it is obviously this huge amount of energy which use consume just in transportation has some very unsuitable efficiency on the environment and human. If today’s policy continue in future the demand of energy for transportation sector increase about 3 times-from 14657 (ktoe) in 2003 to 42777 (ktoe) in 2025. The diagram of energy demand shown in fig. (4). As it is shown the slope of increasing of energy demand is approximately constant and we know the best way to decrease this slope is optimising the consumption of energy. It folloes that a deep change must accure in the model of consuming energy in this country.

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Total (ktoe) 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000

Total (ktoe)

20000 15000 10000 5000 2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0

(Figure 5, demand of energy with today’s policy)

In these days the fuels are used by the transportation devices consist of 6 types but only three types of them are major-Petroleum and Diesel. This study show till 2025 the consumption of petroleum increase 3 times in compare of 2003 and consumption of diesel grow about 5 times. One of the !!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!! !!!! !! !!! !!!! !!!! !!! !!!!! !! , 1 1 ( , , %& M $ 9 , 1 1 + , ; 7 0 ) % & 9 1 , 1 1 55 5 #9 M , , 1 1 0 N 9 , 1 ) , 1 1 %& ( 1 , , ( , , 1 9 ( 1 1 9 , ( , , 1 1 , @ %K 9 , , 9 ( , , 9 , ,1 2 + % 3@3 , 1 , 0( , 0 1 0 ( %K , , 1 , 1 % # , 9 , 1 ( 3@3 14

from 2003 to 2025. As a result of , ( 9 , , , , ( , 9 8 , , , , , 1 1 % , , 2 8 % " 9 1 9, 1 2 + % Year

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*$ !

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gas emission from fossil and fuel (Ton) 8

%

*

!#-/

$$!'-'

2017

106573262

3348 719521

1093294

2018

112398304

3531 719217

1029276

2019

118437292

3720 716155

954324

2020

124693973

3917 710191

867953

2021

131172090

4120 701184

769677

2022

137875389

4330 688992

659013

2023

144807614

4548 673473

535475

2024

151972511

4773 654483

398578

2025

159373824

5005 631882

247838

(Table 5, emissions produced by fuels)

CO2

1400000

180000000

Nox

160000000

1200000

CO

140000000

800000

80000000

600000

60000000

400000

40000000 200000

20000000

2024 2025

2023

2021 2022

2020

2018 2019

2017

2015 2016

2014

2012 2013

2011

2009 2010

2008

2006 2007

0

2005

0

2003 2004

CO2 (Ton)

100000000

CO , NOx (Ton)

1000000

120000000

(Figure 6, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia)

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SO2

6000 5000 4000 SO2

3000 2000 1000

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0

(Figure 7, Pattern of SO2 production by transportation in Malaysia)

CO2 180000000 160000000 140000000 120000000 100000000

CO2

80000000 60000000 40000000 20000000 2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0

(Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 22 years)

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6. Conclusions By evaluating the various data of consuming energy by transportation systems and effects of that we are able to plan and develop new policy for future system of transportation. It is very important for us to think about the future world, our environment and health of human. Emissions from transportation sector make up one of the largest emissions for the country. Government intervention to abate these emissions is urgently needed now. The study also shows that switching from transportation fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as Fuel cell and Hybrid engines offers a solution and multiple benefits to the utilities, society and most importantly to protect the environment. The Malaysian government has to find ways to reduce these emissions, such as by introducing emissions taxation which can be used to finance renewable energy research projects or to replant trees in the rain forest of the country. The data from the study can be used as a basis for calculating cost benefit analysis for implementation of new renewable technologies for transportation and developing an emission abatement program in Malaysia.

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Reference 1. T.M.I. Mahlia,(2001) Emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia, Renewable 2.

Energy 27 (2002) 293–300. Deborah Gordon, Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the Environment,NY, Dorling Kindersley, 1998. NOx Removal. Branch Environmental Corp. Retrieved on 2007-12-26.

3. 4. Schwartz P. The art of the long view: planning in an uncertain world. New York:

Doubleday, 1996. 5. Klienbaum DG. Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. USA: ITP Co., 1998

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