Double Exponential Smoothing

FORECAST BY DOUBLE EXPONEN

When a trend exists, the forecasting technique must consider the trend as well as the serie be below (with an increasing trend) or above (with a decreasing trend) actual demand. Dou average and the trend. Constant for smoothing averages:

0.36

Constant for smoothing trend:

t

D(t)

period

actual

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

200 250 175 186 225 285 305 190 210 245 185 254 135 189 240 261 275 210 165 211 202 197 192 187 183 178 173 400 163

A(t)

0.5

CT(t)

avg.of series current trend

200.00 250.00 255.00 247.76 246.05 262.77 284.67 260.94 240.19 234.07 210.53 215.70 183.07 172.97 187.75 214.18 244.56 246.08 224.36 216.34 207.00 198.32 190.73 184.30 179.23 174.87 170.84 250.37 242.88

200.00 50.00 5.00 -7.24 -1.71 16.72 21.90 -23.72 -20.75 -6.12 -23.55 5.17 -32.63 -10.10 14.78 26.43 30.38 1.52 -21.72 -8.03 -9.34 -8.68 -7.59 -6.43 -5.07 -4.37 -4.03 79.53 -7.49

T(t)

F(t)

avg.trend

forecast

50.00 50.00 27.50 10.13 4.21 10.46 16.18 -3.77 -12.26 -9.19 -16.37 -5.60 -19.12 -14.61 0.09 13.26 21.82 11.67 -5.02 -6.53 -7.93 -8.30 -7.95 -7.19 -6.13 -5.25 -4.64 37.45 14.98

200.00 250.00 300.00 282.50 257.89 250.26 273.23 300.85 257.17 227.93 224.89 194.16 210.10 163.95 158.36 187.84 227.43 266.38 257.75 219.34 209.81 199.07 190.02 182.79 177.11 173.10 169.62 166.20 287.81

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

185 245 185 254 135 189 240 261 275 210 165 211 202 197 192 187 183 178 173 400 163 185 192 187 183 178 173 400 163 185 155

231.63 237.64 221.21 229.01 195.67 182.85 194.11 217.14 244.81 244.56 221.97 213.82 204.86 196.81 189.89 184.04 179.39 175.27 171.32 250.81 243.22 231.85 218.65 203.61 189.55 177.58 168.19 244.77 236.40 225.75 200.80

-11.25 6.01 -16.43 7.81 -33.35 -12.82 11.26 23.03 27.67 -0.25 -22.58 -8.15 -8.96 -8.05 -6.92 -5.85 -4.65 -4.13 -3.95 79.50 -7.59 -11.38 -13.19 -15.04 -14.06 -11.98 -9.39 76.58 -8.37 -10.65 -24.95

1.86 3.94 -6.25 0.78 -16.28 -14.55 -1.65 10.69 19.18 9.46 -6.56 -7.35 -8.16 -8.10 -7.51 -6.68 -5.67 -4.90 -4.42 37.54 14.97 1.80 -5.70 -10.37 -12.21 -12.09 -10.74 32.92 12.27 0.81 -12.07

257.86 233.49 241.57 214.96 229.79 179.39 168.29 192.46 227.83 263.99 254.02 215.41 206.47 196.70 188.70 182.38 177.36 173.73 170.37 166.89 288.35 258.20 233.64 212.95 193.24 177.34 165.48 157.45 277.68 248.67 226.56

LE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

end as well as the series average ignoring the trend will cause the forecast to always nd) actual demand. Double exponential smoothing smooths (averages) both the series erage and the trend.

Forecast m periods ahead Forecast period

75 using the data up to period

Forecasted value: by F(t+m) = A(t) + m.T(t)

60 19.78

Data - Forecast Chart 400 375 350

Unit

325 300

Observed Data Forecast

275 250 225 200 175 150 125

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Time

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Follow the steps to enable your Double Exponential Smoothin >>

Your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast is ready to use. Following steps are for online use.

1)

Visit the site below: http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/getting_started.htm You will only need the username and password to create your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast.

2)

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3)

Click "Add Web Application" to upload this file. Your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast will be created You can simply use the Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast from that link or place it on your website.

>>

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http://www1.spreadsheetweb.com/SpreadSheetWeb/Output.aspx?ApplicationId=677b7a9d-0e80-43bd-a1c >>

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ential Smoothing Forecast.

for online use.

Smoothing Forecast.

g Forecast will be created automatically.

place it on your website.

677b7a9d-0e80-43bd-a1c4-1a9358ac2e35