Exponential Smoothing

FORECAST BY EXPONENTIAL SMOOT

This forecast model is used for one step ahead forecasting. Forecast of next time unit is observed data and previous forecast. The smoothing constant you have entered is the w Smoothing Constant:

0.2

Forecast

MAPE Mean absolute percent MSE The mean squared erro MAD Mean absolute deviatio 200 250 175 186 225 285 305 190 210 245 185 254 135 189 240 261 275 210 165 211 202 197 192 187 183 178 173 400 163 185

Error

200.00 0.00 200.00 -50.00 210.00 35.00 203.00 17.00 199.60 -25.40 204.68 -80.32 220.74 -84.26 237.60 47.60 228.08 18.08 224.46 -20.54 228.57 43.57 219.85 -34.15 226.68 91.68 208.35 19.35 204.48 -35.52 211.58 -49.42 221.47 -53.53 232.17 22.17 227.74 62.74 215.19 4.19 214.35 12.35 211.88 14.88 208.91 16.91 205.52 18.52 201.82 18.82 198.06 20.06 194.04 21.04 189.84 -210.16 231.87 68.87 218.09 33.09 211.48

Data - F

Unit

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Data Forecast

400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0

12 34567891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0123 4567890123 456789

Ti

Error In 100 75 50 25 0

Unit

Period

-25 -50 -75 -100 -125 -150 -175 -200 -225

123456 7891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 01234567890123456789

-100 -125 -150

33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

-175 -200 -225

123456 7891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 01234567890123456789

T

NTIAL SMOOTHING

ecast of next time unit is done according to the previous ou have entered is the weight of previous forecast value. Forecast Evalution Mean absolute percentage error The mean squared error Mean absolute deviation

0.1853 3,209.7475 40.9739

Data - Forecast Chart

Observed Data Forecast

4567891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 0123 4567890123 45678901234 56789012345 67890123456 7890

Time

Error In Forecast Chart

Error In Forecast

456 7891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 01234567890123456789012345678901234567 8901234567890

e^2 0 2500 1225 289 645.16 6451.3 ### 2265.3 326.75 421.85 ### ### ### 374.31 ### ### ### 491.62 ### 17.56 152.58 221.47 285.8 343.15 354.17 402.23 442.87 ### ### ###

e/d 0 0.2 0.2 0.09 0.11 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.09 0.08 0.24 0.13 0.68 0.1 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.38 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.1 0.11 0.12 0.53 0.42 0.18

456 7891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 01234567890123456789012345678901234567 8901234567890

Time

1 0 1 50 1 35 1 17 1 25.4 1 80.32 1 84.26 1 47.6 1 18.08 1 20.54 1 43.57 1 34.15 1 91.68 1 19.35 1 35.52 1 49.42 1 53.53 1 22.17 1 62.74 1 4.19 1 12.35 1 14.88 1 16.91 1 18.52 1 18.82 1 20.06 1 21.04 1 210.16 1 68.87 1 33.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

%3c%3fxml+version%3d%221.0%22+encoding%3d%22utf-16%22%3f%3e%0d%0a%3cWizardSettin %3cAllowRounding%3efalse%3c%2fAllowRounding%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++%3cText 3e%0d%0a++++++++++++%3cGroupSeparator+%2f%3e%0d%0a+++++++++ +++++++++%3cType%3e0%3c%2fType%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++ lse%3c%2fPSCFormated%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3 +++++++++++++%3cPSCFormated%3efalse%3c%2fPS 3e15%3c%2fHeight%3e%0d%0a+++++++++++ 3cVerticalAlign+%2f%3e%0d%0a+++++ 0a++++++++++++++++%3c %3cFormat%3eGeneral%

UEsFBgAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA%3d%3d

+++++%3cHeight%3e15%3c%2fHeight%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cAlign%3eLeft%3 ++%3cWidth%3e48%3c%2fWidth%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cText%3eMAD+ +++++%3cRowSpan+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cColSpan+%2 +++++++++%3cTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cPSCForma +++++%3cMerge%3eFalse%3c%2fMerge%3e%0d%0a+++++++ ++++++%3c%2fTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++% ame%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cW 0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cStyl ++++++%3cGrid+%2f%3e%0d rmula%3e%0d%0a++++

%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cPSCFormated%3efalse%3c%2fPSCFormated%3e%0d%0a +++++%3cImages+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFormControls+%2f%3e rapText%3eFalse%3c%2fWrapText%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFontS ++++%3cWidth%3e48.75%3c%2fWidth%3e%0d%0a+++++++++++++ +++++%3cX%3e10%3c%2fX%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++%3cFontName%3eCalibri%3c%2fFon a++++++++++++++++%3cFormat%3eGenera Text%3e%0d%0a+++++++++++++++ %3c%2fStyle%3e%0d%0a++++ %3cExport+%2f%3e%0d

ame%3eCalibri%3c%2fFontName%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cWrapText%3eFalse%3c Formated%3efalse%3c%2fPSCFormated%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cStyle%3 +++%3cFormControls+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cGrid+%2f% d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFontSize%3e11%3c%2fFontSize%3e%0 %2fTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3cTD%3e%0d%0a+++ +++++++++%3cY%3e45%3c%2fY%3e%0d%0a++++++ 3c%2fFontName%3e%0d%0a+++++++++++++ e51%3c%2fWidth%3e%0d%0a+++++++ f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++ 3e11%3c%2fFontSize%3

d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cAlign%3eLeft%3c%2fAlign%3e%0d%0a+++++++++++++++ t+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3c%2fTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3 %0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cImages+%2f%3e%0d%0a+++++++++++ 3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFontSize%3e11%3c%2fFontSize% +++++++++++++++%3cHeight%3e15%3c%2fHeight%3e%0d% cGrid+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cExp +++++++++%3cY%3e59%3c%2fY%3e%0d%0a cVerticalAlign+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++ 0d%0a++++++++++++++++ +%2f%3e%0d%0a++++

+++++++%3cX%3e21%3c%2fX%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cY%3e64%3c%2fY%3e% %3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++++%3cValueType+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++ c%2fTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3cTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++%3cFormControls+%2f%3e%0d%0a+++++++++ fCellHasFormula%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFontNa ++++++++++++%3cStyle%3eClass106%3c%2fStyle%3 %2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3c%2fTD a++++++++++++++++%3cImages+% wSpan+%2f%3e%0d%0a+++++ efalse%3c%2fPSCForma

+++++++++++%3cFormat%3eGeneral%3c%2fFormat%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3c n+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFormat%3eGeneral%3c%2fFormat%3e%0

eral%3c%2fFormat%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cWidth%3e48%3c%2fWidth%3e%0d%0a+++++

Width%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cText+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cHeight%3

++++++++%3cHeight%3e15.75%3c%2fHeight%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cAlign%3eLeft%3c%

++%3cAlign%3eLeft%3c%2fAlign%3e% 0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cVerticalAlign+%2f%3e%0d%0a+

lAlign+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cCellHasFormula%3eFalse%3c%2fCellHasFormula%3e%0

%2fCellHasFormula%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFontName%3eCalibri%3c%2fFontName%3e%0d%

%3c%2fFontName%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cWrapText%3eFalse%3c%2fWrapText%3e%0d%0a

%2fWrapText%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3 cFontSize%3e11%3c%2fFontSize%3e%0d%0a++++++

Size%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cX%3e7%3c%2fX%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cY%

++++++++++++%3cY%3e79%3c%2fY%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cImages+%2f%3e%0d%0a+

mages+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFormControls+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++

%0a++++++++++++++++%3cGrid+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cE xport+%2f%3e%0d%0

3cE xport+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3c%2fTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++%3cTD%3e%

++++++++%3cTD%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cPSCFormated%3efalse%3c%2fPSCFormated%3

se%3c%2fPSCFormated%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cStyle%3eClass144%3c%2fStyle%3e%0d%0a

4%3c%2fStyle%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cMerge%3eFalse%3c%2fMerge%3e%0d%0a++++++

rge%3e%0d%0a++++++++ ++++++++%3cRowSpan+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cColSp

++++++++++%3cColSpan+%2f%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cFormat%3eGeneral%3c%2fForm

t%3eGeneral%3c%2fFormat%3e%0d%0a++++++++++++++++%3cWidth%3e24.75%3c%2fWidth%3e%0d%

Follow the steps to enable your Exponential Smoothing Forec >>

Your Exponential Smoothing Forecast is ready to use. Following steps are for online use.

1)

Visit the site below: http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/getting_started.htm You will only need the username and password to create your Exponential Smoothing Forecast.

2)

Visit the site below: http://trial.spreadsheetweb.com/spreadsheetweb/ Login to page with your new account information.

3)

Click "Add Web Application" to upload this file. Your Exponential Smoothing Forecast will be created autom You can simply use the Exponential Smoothing Forecast from that link or place it on your website.

>>

Your Exponential Smoothing Forecast will look like:

http://www1.spreadsheetweb.com/SpreadSheetWeb/Output.aspx?ApplicationId=f6f1582f-ecda-4188-b607>>

In order to see more online applications created with PSW you can check the link below: http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/demos.htm

Copyright (c) 2009 Pagos, Inc. http://www.pagos.com/

moothing Forecast.

hing Forecast.

ast will be created automatically.

on your website.

6f1582f-ecda-4188-b607-259771b7d889