Dinamika Persaingan Industri Jasa Telekomunikasi

Dinamika Persaingan Industri Telekomunikasi Kuliah Umum

Mas Wigrantoro Roes Setiyadi Ketua Masyarakat Telematika Indonesia (MASTEL)

[email protected] Jakarta, 31 Oktober 2007

Profile MasWig Pendidikan • Sarjana Teknik Informatika, Univesitas Budi Luhur (d/h STMIK Budi Luhur), 1992 •

Sarjana Ekonomi, Universitas Indonesia, 1996

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Master in Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 2000

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Magister Sains Akuntansi, Universitas Indonesia, 2002

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Kandidat Doktor, Program Studi Ilmu Manajemen, PPS-FEUI

Profesi / Jabatan • Wakil Direktur Utama, PT Pratama Jaringan Nusantara •

Direktur Institute for Technology and Economic Policy Studies <>

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Ketua MASTEL

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Dosen Pasca Sarjana: –

Universitas Prof. Dr. Moestopo (Beragama): Perkembangan TI & Komunikasi

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Universitas Budi Luhur: Ethics & Cyberlaws; Strategi Sistem Informasi / TI

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Agenda • • • • • •

Scope of Telecommunication Discourse Current business environment Industry Competitive Analysis Competitive Dynamics Strategy to Win Competition Q&A

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Lingkup Kajian Telekomunikasi Telekomunikasi

Teknologi

Ekonomi

Hukum

Kebijakan & Regulasi

Implikasi Sosial

Jaringan

Struktur

UU

Lisensi

Internasional

Media Transmisi

Conduct

PP.

USO

Digital Divide

Kinerja

PerMen

Tarif

Teledensitas

Investasi

Perda.

BHP

Manfaat

Layanan

KepDirjen

Standar

Perilaku

Modulasi

Nilai Ekonomi

Dll.

Interkoneksi

Dll.

Signaling

Dll.

Transmiter Receiver Protokol

Landing Right

Interkoneksi

VAS

VoIP

Mobilitas

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Dll.

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The Operators business environment

• Threats and opportunities • Shifts in consumers behavior

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Confusion in both media and telecom markets Business dynamic that impact operators business strategy

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Changes in consumer behavior • • • • •

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Always on Call Forwarding -> Mobile -> Internet -> Mobile TV Presence based services - How to be reachable Mobility - Roaming, WiFi handover, Service Portability Service usage - e/M-commerce, data, multimedia Payment models changing - Point Of Sales, Realtime Charging, Prepaid Combinations

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The service ecosystems… • Consumers … – Wants: simplicity, usability and access to the “Net” and cool things. – Consumption is rapid and instant – Access is just expected wherever I am

• Application (service) providers … – Communication network is simple the channel to reach customers. – Target to keep customers always on, regardless of network, location or terminal. – Advertising is a vital source of revenues.

• Operators … – Keep customer loyal and increase service usage, ARPU. – Consolidation of production environments to lower OPEX in an increasing competitive market. – The true challenge is to move towards a common strategy for service delivery towards; Broadband, Fixed and Mobile networks.

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Convergence from a users perspective Terminal: The terminal at hand present the service I want to access. Access: Best possible network resource is engaged to access the service. Service: Based on the service type, bandwith, method of presentation set the rules how to present the service Subscription, Authentication, Accounting… 11/17/09

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Technology shift and uncertainties • Web 2.0 – True personalization impacts the expectation of communication – RSS and bloggs are used over any media – Communities and IM replace traditional communications – New business models (mainly advertising driven)

• Telco – – – –

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An all IP-based world will create new business models New communication providers change the business models The business model is threatening traditional telecoms For many subscribers, price combined with presence is currently more important than quality. maswig for UI

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“Coverage is king” regardless of access technology

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Telco Business trends Convergence aspects • Terminal – Multi network access, multimedia • Network – Converged network for any service • Services – Mashups, service Portability • Access – Core network must support different access methods Convergence is more than an aggregated bill • Combination of services that adds value to the customer • Operational synergies • New market opportunities • Play higher in the value chain 11/17/09

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Telco Business Challenge • Captive Market • Relatively homogeneous portfolio • Thick margin • Sole player • Supporting roles • Passive business approach

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• Competitive market • Relatively heterogeneous product • Thin margin •Multi players •Creative partnership • Leading roles • Proactive business developer maswig for UI

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Short term issues and key business objectives Short term issues • Core production systems reaches its “end of life” • Long process to introduce changes customizations in today’s production environment. • Different service platforms for different networks, Fixed, Mobile and IP networks Key objective in business decisions • Supports and enhance core business and then operators competitive edge. • Supports migration towards NGN architecture • Allow for flexible and open service development environment • Having the ability to introduce new service rapidly 11/17/09

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Alternative revenue stream’s impact on my business Advertising and new business models will constantly impact operator’s traditional business model. Example: Starbucks – iPhone – iTune concept will compete with traditional download bus

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Structure - Conduct - Performance

• Industry Competitive Analysis

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Industry Structure

S-C-P

•Number of competing firms •Homogeneity of product •Cost of entry and exit

Firm Conduct

The Structure Conduct Performance

•Price taking •Product differentiation •Tacit Collusion •Exploiting market power

Model (Barney, 2007)

Performance •Firm Level: normal, below normal, above normal preference •Society, productive and allocative efficiency, level of employment, progress 11/17/09

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Market Structure The ways in which the structure of an industry react to, and reflect, the underlying influences of technology and preferences

Types Industry Structure, Firm Conduct Option, Firm Performance, and Social Welfare Implications (Barney,2007) Type of Industry

Industry Attributes

Perfect Competition

Example

Firm Conduct Option

Large number of computing firm Homogenous products Low-cost entry and exit Monopolistic Large number of Competition computing firm Homogenous products Low-cost entry and exit

Stock market Price Taking Crude oil

Oligopoly

U.S steel and Collution autos in the (see Chapter 1950s 10) U.S breakfast sereal

Monopoly

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Small number of computing firm Homogenous or Heterogenous products Costly-entry and exit One firm Costly entry

Tooth Paste Shampoo Golf ball Automobiles

Tooth Paste Shampoo

Social Expected Firm Welfare Performance Implcation Normal Social welfare maximal

Product Above Normal Less than Differentiation perfect (see Chapter 8) competition

Above Normal Less than monopolistic competition

Product Above Normal Less than Differentiation Oligopoly

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Indonesia Telco - Market Structure IN D U S T R Y S E G M E N T

LEG AL STATU S

S E R V IC E S

IN T E R N A T IO N A L G A T E W A YK o m p e tis i P U B L IC S W IT C H F ix W ire lin e D u o p o ly TELEPHONE NETW ORK F ix W ire le s s K o m p e tis i D O M E S T IC C D M A -4 5 0R e g io n a l L ic e n s e M o b ile G S M 3G CDMA L o n g D is ta n c e IN F R A S T R U C T U R E T E R R E S T R IA L S A T E L L IT E V A L U E A D D E D S E R V IC E SD a ta C o m , IS P , P a y p h o n e , e tc . (N e tw o rk ) S P E C IA L N E T W O R K V S A T , T ru n k in g P R IV A T E N E T W O R K T e le p h o n e S w ic th T ra n s m is s io n M A N U F A C T U R IN G B ro a d b a n d S w itc h CPE

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O P E R A T O R (S )

K o m p e tis i K o m p e tis i M o n o p o ly K o m p e tis i K o m p e tis i C o m p e titio n

In d o s a t, T e lk o m , E s ia T e lk o m , B a ta m -B in ta n T e lk o m T e lk o m , In d o s a t, E s ia S a m p o e rn a T e le k o m u n ik a s i T e lk o m s e l, S a te lin d o , E x c e lc o m , NTS, 3 T e lk o m s e l, S a te lin d o , E x c e lc o m , NTS, 3 M o b ile -8 , S m a rt T e lk o m S e m u a O p e ra to r S a te lin d o , P S N , C S M , T e lk o m L ic e n s e d o p e ra to rs

C o m p e te titio n N o R e s a le

L ic e n s e d o p e ra to rs A n y P riv a te C o m p a n ie s

C o m p e te titio n

A n y C o m p a n ie s

K o m p e tis i

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Penyelenggara Telekomunikasi Pelanggan kartu pra bayar menurut Operator Telekomunikasi pada Tanggal 25 Juli 2007 Bakrie Telecom; 1.997.127; 2% Mobile-8; 2.175.731; 2%

Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia; 198.000; 0%

Natrindo; 9.590; 0% Hutchinson; 1.057.338; 1% Telkom; 13.301.000; 15%

XL; 9.743.245; 11%

Indosat; 19.636.990; 22%

Sumber: Dirjen Postel

Telkomsel; 41.001.000; 47%

Competitive Dynamics

• • • •

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Actions - Reactions Strategic Moves Make profit > Competitors Sustainable Competitive Advantage

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Telco Business Character FUND

TECHNOLOGY REGULATORY

BUSINESS STRATEGY Adopted from: Rudiantara, 2003 11/17/09

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Network Externalities • the value of a unit of the good increases with the number of units sold • the value of a unit of the good increases with the expected number of units to be sold • externalities arise in the act of exchanging assets or goods. • externalities may arise in the array of vertically related services that compose a financial transaction.

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The Five Force Model of Environmental Threat of Entry

Threat of Supplier

Threat of rivalry

Level of threat in an industry

Threat of Buyer

Threat of Substitutes 11/17/09

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What do we want to be? Not, What do we want to do?

Competitive Advantage

Profits above average regional countries. Adopted from Coff (1999) & Powell (2001).

Distinctive competence Core competence

Products and services better than country-competitors do Adopted from Ansoff (1965), Andrew (1971).

Resources create variety of products, gain higher revenue. Adopted from Prahalad & Hamel (1990).

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Strategic decisions

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Dynamics of Competition (1) • Process of competition over time • Erosion of competitive advantage – Changes in five forces – Competitors overcoming adverse forces

• Cycles of competitive response – Slow: long periods of established pattern of competition – Fast: hyper competition, constant disequilibrium and change 11/17/09

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Dynamics of Competition (2) • Implications of speed of competitive cycle: – Slow-moving - build and sustain competitive advantages which are difficult to imitate – Fast-moving - advantage is temporary, disrupt status quo, sequence of short-lived moves

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Cycles of Competition

Source: Adapted with the permission of the Free Press, a Division of Simon & Schuster, from R.A. D’Aveni with Robert Gunther, Hyper – Competitive Rivalries: Competing in a Highly Dynamic Environment © 1994, 1995 by Richard A.D’Aveni, All rights resvered.

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Competitive Strategy

• • •

Industrial Organization (Outside In) Resource-based Theory (Inside Out) Austrian School (Hypercompetition)

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The business idea

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Layers of the business environment

Defining the strategy • Who is my prime customer target? – Business, Residential, Age group, ethnic groups… • What network resources do I have that bring me competitive edge? – Single network operator or – Multiple network operator • Prime services that must be protected? – Services with limited competition – Service that generate significant revenue – Service that prevent churn

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Membangun Strategi Bisnis Menciptakan Nilai Bagi Konsumen

Usaha bangun keunggulan daya saing Strategi R&D

Strategi Bisnis

gi te ra St ng Fu

Strategi supply chain management Strategi service/

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Strategi Keuangan Sumber: Thompson & Strickland (2003)

Kolaborasi, kemitraan, aliansi strategik

n sio

Strategi Pemasaran Manufacturing Strategi SDM

Menanggapi perubahan lingkungan politik, ekonomi dan industri Menjangka u ekspansi Geografis

Moves proaktif ungguli pesaing maswig for UI

35 Dr. Albert Widjaja, FEUI, p. 8.

Telecommunication Value Chain Equipment Supply Competitive Market

Telecomm Infrastructure Monopoly / Duopoly / Oligopoly

Service Development Competitive Market Internet

Telecom Equipment

VAS

Computer H/W

PTOs Databases

Software Consumer Electronic

Network Management

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Strategic Groups Strategic groups are organisations within an industry with similar strategic characteristics, following similar strategies or competing on similar bases

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Some characteristics for identifying strategic groups

Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategic groups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.

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Identification of Strategic Groups (1) • Scope of activities – Product/service diversity – Geographical coverage – Number of market segments served – Distribution channels

Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategic groups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.

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Identification of Strategic Groups (2) • Resource commitment – Extent of branding – Marketing effort – Extent of vertical integration – Product/service quality – Technological position (leader, follower) – Size of organisation Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategic groups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.

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Uses of Strategic Group Analysis • To understand who are the most direct competitors of an organisation • To establish the different bases of competitive rivalry within and between the strategic groups • To assess if an organisation could move from one group to another

– Depends on barriers to entry • To identify opportunities and threats

– Changes in the macro-environment may create strategic space

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Cellular Industry Cluster Users

Content Providers Dealers

Mobile Network Operators

Contract Manufacturers Component And Equipment Suppliers

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Mobile Handset Manufactures

Mobile Infrastructure Manufacturers

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Mobile Application Providers Specialized Services Banking, Accounting, Legal

Specialized Risk Capital

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?

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Q&A

Contact: Mas Wigrantoro Roes Setiyadi Email: [email protected] Mobile: +6281876006 URL: http://maswig.blogspot,com & http://maswigrs.wordpress.com

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