Consumer Sentiment, September
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Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index September 2009 Table 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Aug 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Aug 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Seasonally Adjusted
115.7
92.2
113.4
119.3
5.2
29.4
Trend**
114.0
86.8
114.1
116.4
2.0
34.1
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 5.2 per cent to 119.3 in September 2009 from 113.4 in August, continuing the improvement which began in June 2009. The index is now 29.4 per cent higher than the value one year ago.
Consumer sentiment index continues to improve
All five component indices improved in September (see Table 2) with the largest improvement of 9.8 per cent recorded by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 12 months. The component indices reflecting family finances (vs a year ago and next 12 months) increased by 8.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively. The component index reflecting economic conditions next 5 years improved by 6.7 per cent while the component index representing good or bad time to buy major household items improved by 2.0 per cent. Overall, the current conditions index rose by 4.5 per cent and the expectations index increased by 5.6 per cent.
…with improvements in all five component indices
Increases in consumer sentiment were recorded in all groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics except for the group with an annual household income below $20K and for the occupation group - labourers/operators (see Table 3). This month’s survey was conducted in the wake of good news that the Australian economy grew by a solid 0.6 per cent in the three months to June 2009. The top news recall in September was (not surprisingly) “economic conditions” (see Table 5), while the news heard index improved significantly for all topics except for ‘interest rates’ and the ‘Australian Dollar’. Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index 20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 Sep-03
Trend
Index
10
0
-10
SA
Trend
-20
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA) Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Aug 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Aug 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Family finances vs a year ago
106.2
77.8
82.8
89.6
8.3
15.1
Family finances next 12 months
113.4
112.1
121.1
121.9
0.7
8.8
Economic conditions next 12 months
124.6
86.3
113.3
124.4
9.8
44.2
Economic conditions next 5 years
110.2 124.2
96.4 88.4
123.1 126.9
131.3 129.4
6.7 2.0
36.2 46.4
115.2 116.1
83.1 98.3
104.8 119.2
109.5 125.9
4.5 5.6
31.7 28.1
Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index* Expectations Index**
Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions.
Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender By age
By home ownership
By Fed. voting intention By occupation
By household income p.a.
By area
Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Aug 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Aug 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Male
121.8
100.8
118.1
123.9
4.9
23.0
Female
110.0
84.3
108.9
115.1
5.7
36.6
18-24
129.4
98.9
110.9
122.0
10.0
23.3
25-44
116.3
96.3
119.0
124.2
4.3
28.9
Over 45
111.7
87.2
109.4
114.7
4.9
31.5
Tenant
120.2
103.3
104.7
127.9
22.2
23.9
Mortgagee
114.5
90.1
116.2
121.3
4.4
34.6
Wholly owned
114.6
88.4
114.0
114.3
0.3
29.3
Coalition
132.7
82.4
111.7
115.5
3.4
40.2
ALP
107.6
100.0
119.9
123.6
3.1
23.6
Manager/prof.
119.7
97.7
115.1
124.6
8.3
27.6
Paraprof./trades
122.8
90.6
113.8
130.0
14.2
43.5
Sales/clerical
114.5
88.9
110.8
126.2
13.9
41.9
Lab./operator
112.7
89.4
122.5
107.7
-12.1
20.6
Not working
112.1
90.4
111.0
110.3
-0.7
22.0
Up to $20K
103.7
89.4
110.8
109.3
-1.4
22.2
$20 to $40K
112.1
89.9
99.9
120.0
20.1
33.5
$40 to $60K
115.8
95.0
109.3
118.0
8.0
24.2
Over $60K
120.2
94.2
119.4
122.9
3.0
30.6
Metropolitan
118.9 109.0
93.8 88.5
112.8 115.1
120.2 118.0
6.5 2.6
28.1 33.3
Non- Metro.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth* % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04
3.4
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months
% change, 1 quarter lead
120
Index
120
17 12
2.4
100
7 1.4
2
0.4
-3
100
80
80
-8 -0.6
Trend
SA
Retail sales growth (LHS)
-13 Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
-1.6 Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
-18 Sep-09
60 Sep-03
Index
140
60 Sep-09
140
Index
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
120
120
100
100
Trend 80 Sep-03
60
SA
Sep-05
Sep-07
80 Sep-09
Index
Trend
40 Sep-03
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years 140
Sep-07
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months 140
Sep-05
60
SA
Sep-05
40 Sep-09
Sep-07
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items Index
140
160
120
120
140
140
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
Trend 60 Sep-03
Sep-05
80
SA Sep-07
60 Sep-09
60 Sep-03
Trend
Sep-05
160
80
SA
Sep-07
60 Sep-09
*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No. 6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index Index
Optimists - pessimists +100
140
130
110
90
SA 70 Sep-03
Trend Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
120
100
SA 80 Sep-03
Index
Trend Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
Index
Index
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
140
Mortgage 60 Sep-03
140
Home owner
Sep-05
Sep-07
$60,000+ 60 Sep-09
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
100
100
80
Metro 60 Sep-03
60 Sep-03
160
Sep-07
Sep-07
Index
60 Sep-09
60 Sep-09
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
Non metropolitan Sep-05
Sep-05
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA)
120
80
80
Less than $20,000
60 Sep-03
Coalition Sep-05
ALP Sep-07
80 60 Sep-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 4
Table 4: Time to buy a Dwelling and Car Indices
Time to Buy a Dwelling Index Time to Buy a Car Index
Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Sept 2008
84.8 130.4
98.2 92.0
145.8 137.4
144.9 139.1
-0.6 1.2
47.6 51.1
Chart 8: Time to Buy a Dwelling and Dwelling Approvals* Number,
Index, 3 quarter lead
Chart 9 : Time to Buy a Car Index
seasonally adjusted
Index
60000
160
160
160
50000
140
140
120
40000 120
120
80
30000 100
100
200
40 0 Sep 99
Time to buy a dwelling (LHS)
20000
Private sector dwelling ( S) Sep 01
Sep 03
Sep 05
10000 Sep 09
Sep 07
80 Sep 99
Sep 01
Table 5: News Heard Indices – by topic News Recall Level**
Sep 03
Sep 05
Sep 07
80 Sep 09
News Heard Index***
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
Politics
3.2
3.8
4.6
28.2
85.8
124.1
Budget & Taxation
11.0
22.1
21.5
67.1
66.3
125.9
Inflation
33.8
6.2
12.0
38.5
39.2
98.4
Employment
6.8
18.4
12.9
49.8
22.7
75.1
Interest rates
54.2
23.9
32.6
101.5
96.5
93.8
Australian Dollar
6.6
1.9
3.7
65.6
135.4
110.2
Economic conditions International conditions
44.1
77.5
69.2
45.7
70.7
137.5
16.1
19.2
16.3
38.7
51.8
112.9
**Proportion of respondents recalling each news topic. ***Percentage who reported that the news was favourable minus percentage unfavourable plus 100.
*Source: ABS Catalogue No. 8731.0, Building Approvals: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 5
Chart 10b: News Heard Index Chart 10a: News Recall Level - March 2009 140
140
120
120
Australian Dollar
100
100
Interest rates
80
80
60
60
International conditions Economic conditions
Employment Inflation
40
Budget & Taxation
40
Budget & Taxation Inflation
20
Politics
20 Interest rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
0
Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09
Chart 10d: News Heard Index
C ha rt 10 c : N e ws R e c a ll Le v e l - J un 2 0 0 9 160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
Int ernat ional condit ions Economic condit ions Aust ralian Dollar Interest rates Employment Inflat ion 40
40
Employment
Budget & Taxat ion
Australian Dollar
20
Politics
20
Economic conditions 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sep-01
Chart 10e: News Recall Level - Sept 2009
0 Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Chart 10f: News Heard Index 140
140
Economic conditions
120
120
Australian Dollar
100
100
Interest rates
80
80
60
60
40
40
International conditions
Employment Inflation Budget & Taxation
20
Politics
20 Politics
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
International conditions
0
Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 6
Table 6: Wisest place for savings (per cent of respondents) Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Banks
17.2
27.9
27.1
26.7
-0.4
-1.1
Building societies
1.1
2.7
2.0
2.2
0.3
-0.4
Bonds
1.2
0.9
1.1
1.0
-0.1
0.2
Shares
15.4
11.2
12.3
13.4
1.1
2.2
Real estates
22.0
14.9
16.1
15.6
-0.5
0.7
Credit union
0.3
2.2
1.5
1.8
0.3
-0.4
Cash management trust
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.0
-0.3
Pay debt
15.0
22.9
23.2
25.5
2.3
2.7
Superanuation
11.2
5.4
4.9
5.0
0.1
-0.3
Spend it
6.8
4.6
6.3
5.6
-0.7
1.0
Other
6.7
5.1
4.2
1.7
-2.5
-3.4
Don't know Total
2.0 100
1.1 100
0.4 100
0.4 100
0.0 0
-0.7 0
Released: 09 Sept 2009 Interview period: 31 Aug -6 Sept 2009 Sample size: 1200
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 7
Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment index has been designed as a trend-less variable that provides an indication of the level of and shifts in consumer sentiment over time. The index is an average of five component indexes which in turn reflect the balance of favourable and unfavourable responses to five survey questions. These questions relate to family finances a year ago and in the next 12 months, economic conditions in the next 12 months and next 5 years, and good or bad time to buy major household items. An index level of 100 indicates that the balance of confidence or optimism is equally weighted, while an index of greater than 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The consumer sentiment index has been found to be a good predictor of economic activity.
Disclaimer: Westpac Banking Corporation, the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne Institute give no representation, make no warranty, nor take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein and will not be liable in contract tort, for negligence or for any loss or damage arising from reliance on any such information. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment report presents the results of a survey of more than 1200 households, together with the professional analysis and views of the Melbourne Institute. These views and findings do not necessarily coincide with those of the Westpac Banking Corporation. For information on the data contained in the report contact the Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne, on (03) 8344 2196.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research This report is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced without written permission.
ISSN 1836-4217 (Online)
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 8
Sept 2008
Aug 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Aug 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Seasonally Adjusted
115.7
92.2
113.4
119.3
5.2
29.4
Trend**
114.0
86.8
114.1
116.4
2.0
34.1
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 5.2 per cent to 119.3 in September 2009 from 113.4 in August, continuing the improvement which began in June 2009. The index is now 29.4 per cent higher than the value one year ago.
Consumer sentiment index continues to improve
All five component indices improved in September (see Table 2) with the largest improvement of 9.8 per cent recorded by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 12 months. The component indices reflecting family finances (vs a year ago and next 12 months) increased by 8.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively. The component index reflecting economic conditions next 5 years improved by 6.7 per cent while the component index representing good or bad time to buy major household items improved by 2.0 per cent. Overall, the current conditions index rose by 4.5 per cent and the expectations index increased by 5.6 per cent.
…with improvements in all five component indices
Increases in consumer sentiment were recorded in all groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics except for the group with an annual household income below $20K and for the occupation group - labourers/operators (see Table 3). This month’s survey was conducted in the wake of good news that the Australian economy grew by a solid 0.6 per cent in the three months to June 2009. The top news recall in September was (not surprisingly) “economic conditions” (see Table 5), while the news heard index improved significantly for all topics except for ‘interest rates’ and the ‘Australian Dollar’. Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index 20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 Sep-03
Trend
Index
10
0
-10
SA
Trend
-20
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA) Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Aug 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Aug 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Family finances vs a year ago
106.2
77.8
82.8
89.6
8.3
15.1
Family finances next 12 months
113.4
112.1
121.1
121.9
0.7
8.8
Economic conditions next 12 months
124.6
86.3
113.3
124.4
9.8
44.2
Economic conditions next 5 years
110.2 124.2
96.4 88.4
123.1 126.9
131.3 129.4
6.7 2.0
36.2 46.4
115.2 116.1
83.1 98.3
104.8 119.2
109.5 125.9
4.5 5.6
31.7 28.1
Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index* Expectations Index**
Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions.
Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender By age
By home ownership
By Fed. voting intention By occupation
By household income p.a.
By area
Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Aug 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Aug 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Male
121.8
100.8
118.1
123.9
4.9
23.0
Female
110.0
84.3
108.9
115.1
5.7
36.6
18-24
129.4
98.9
110.9
122.0
10.0
23.3
25-44
116.3
96.3
119.0
124.2
4.3
28.9
Over 45
111.7
87.2
109.4
114.7
4.9
31.5
Tenant
120.2
103.3
104.7
127.9
22.2
23.9
Mortgagee
114.5
90.1
116.2
121.3
4.4
34.6
Wholly owned
114.6
88.4
114.0
114.3
0.3
29.3
Coalition
132.7
82.4
111.7
115.5
3.4
40.2
ALP
107.6
100.0
119.9
123.6
3.1
23.6
Manager/prof.
119.7
97.7
115.1
124.6
8.3
27.6
Paraprof./trades
122.8
90.6
113.8
130.0
14.2
43.5
Sales/clerical
114.5
88.9
110.8
126.2
13.9
41.9
Lab./operator
112.7
89.4
122.5
107.7
-12.1
20.6
Not working
112.1
90.4
111.0
110.3
-0.7
22.0
Up to $20K
103.7
89.4
110.8
109.3
-1.4
22.2
$20 to $40K
112.1
89.9
99.9
120.0
20.1
33.5
$40 to $60K
115.8
95.0
109.3
118.0
8.0
24.2
Over $60K
120.2
94.2
119.4
122.9
3.0
30.6
Metropolitan
118.9 109.0
93.8 88.5
112.8 115.1
120.2 118.0
6.5 2.6
28.1 33.3
Non- Metro.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth* % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04
3.4
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months
% change, 1 quarter lead
120
Index
120
17 12
2.4
100
7 1.4
2
0.4
-3
100
80
80
-8 -0.6
Trend
SA
Retail sales growth (LHS)
-13 Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
-1.6 Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
-18 Sep-09
60 Sep-03
Index
140
60 Sep-09
140
Index
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
120
120
100
100
Trend 80 Sep-03
60
SA
Sep-05
Sep-07
80 Sep-09
Index
Trend
40 Sep-03
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years 140
Sep-07
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months 140
Sep-05
60
SA
Sep-05
40 Sep-09
Sep-07
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items Index
140
160
120
120
140
140
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
Trend 60 Sep-03
Sep-05
80
SA Sep-07
60 Sep-09
60 Sep-03
Trend
Sep-05
160
80
SA
Sep-07
60 Sep-09
*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No. 6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index Index
Optimists - pessimists +100
140
130
110
90
SA 70 Sep-03
Trend Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
120
100
SA 80 Sep-03
Index
Trend Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
Index
Index
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
140
Mortgage 60 Sep-03
140
Home owner
Sep-05
Sep-07
$60,000+ 60 Sep-09
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
100
100
80
Metro 60 Sep-03
60 Sep-03
160
Sep-07
Sep-07
Index
60 Sep-09
60 Sep-09
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
Non metropolitan Sep-05
Sep-05
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA)
120
80
80
Less than $20,000
60 Sep-03
Coalition Sep-05
ALP Sep-07
80 60 Sep-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 4
Table 4: Time to buy a Dwelling and Car Indices
Time to Buy a Dwelling Index Time to Buy a Car Index
Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Sept 2008
84.8 130.4
98.2 92.0
145.8 137.4
144.9 139.1
-0.6 1.2
47.6 51.1
Chart 8: Time to Buy a Dwelling and Dwelling Approvals* Number,
Index, 3 quarter lead
Chart 9 : Time to Buy a Car Index
seasonally adjusted
Index
60000
160
160
160
50000
140
140
120
40000 120
120
80
30000 100
100
200
40 0 Sep 99
Time to buy a dwelling (LHS)
20000
Private sector dwelling ( S) Sep 01
Sep 03
Sep 05
10000 Sep 09
Sep 07
80 Sep 99
Sep 01
Table 5: News Heard Indices – by topic News Recall Level**
Sep 03
Sep 05
Sep 07
80 Sep 09
News Heard Index***
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
Politics
3.2
3.8
4.6
28.2
85.8
124.1
Budget & Taxation
11.0
22.1
21.5
67.1
66.3
125.9
Inflation
33.8
6.2
12.0
38.5
39.2
98.4
Employment
6.8
18.4
12.9
49.8
22.7
75.1
Interest rates
54.2
23.9
32.6
101.5
96.5
93.8
Australian Dollar
6.6
1.9
3.7
65.6
135.4
110.2
Economic conditions International conditions
44.1
77.5
69.2
45.7
70.7
137.5
16.1
19.2
16.3
38.7
51.8
112.9
**Proportion of respondents recalling each news topic. ***Percentage who reported that the news was favourable minus percentage unfavourable plus 100.
*Source: ABS Catalogue No. 8731.0, Building Approvals: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 5
Chart 10b: News Heard Index Chart 10a: News Recall Level - March 2009 140
140
120
120
Australian Dollar
100
100
Interest rates
80
80
60
60
International conditions Economic conditions
Employment Inflation
40
Budget & Taxation
40
Budget & Taxation Inflation
20
Politics
20 Interest rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
0
Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09
Chart 10d: News Heard Index
C ha rt 10 c : N e ws R e c a ll Le v e l - J un 2 0 0 9 160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
Int ernat ional condit ions Economic condit ions Aust ralian Dollar Interest rates Employment Inflat ion 40
40
Employment
Budget & Taxat ion
Australian Dollar
20
Politics
20
Economic conditions 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sep-01
Chart 10e: News Recall Level - Sept 2009
0 Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Chart 10f: News Heard Index 140
140
Economic conditions
120
120
Australian Dollar
100
100
Interest rates
80
80
60
60
40
40
International conditions
Employment Inflation Budget & Taxation
20
Politics
20 Politics
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
International conditions
0
Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 6
Table 6: Wisest place for savings (per cent of respondents) Sept 2007
Sept 2008
Jun 2009
Sept 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Sept 2008
Banks
17.2
27.9
27.1
26.7
-0.4
-1.1
Building societies
1.1
2.7
2.0
2.2
0.3
-0.4
Bonds
1.2
0.9
1.1
1.0
-0.1
0.2
Shares
15.4
11.2
12.3
13.4
1.1
2.2
Real estates
22.0
14.9
16.1
15.6
-0.5
0.7
Credit union
0.3
2.2
1.5
1.8
0.3
-0.4
Cash management trust
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.0
-0.3
Pay debt
15.0
22.9
23.2
25.5
2.3
2.7
Superanuation
11.2
5.4
4.9
5.0
0.1
-0.3
Spend it
6.8
4.6
6.3
5.6
-0.7
1.0
Other
6.7
5.1
4.2
1.7
-2.5
-3.4
Don't know Total
2.0 100
1.1 100
0.4 100
0.4 100
0.0 0
-0.7 0
Released: 09 Sept 2009 Interview period: 31 Aug -6 Sept 2009 Sample size: 1200
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 7
Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment index has been designed as a trend-less variable that provides an indication of the level of and shifts in consumer sentiment over time. The index is an average of five component indexes which in turn reflect the balance of favourable and unfavourable responses to five survey questions. These questions relate to family finances a year ago and in the next 12 months, economic conditions in the next 12 months and next 5 years, and good or bad time to buy major household items. An index level of 100 indicates that the balance of confidence or optimism is equally weighted, while an index of greater than 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The consumer sentiment index has been found to be a good predictor of economic activity.
Disclaimer: Westpac Banking Corporation, the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne Institute give no representation, make no warranty, nor take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein and will not be liable in contract tort, for negligence or for any loss or damage arising from reliance on any such information. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment report presents the results of a survey of more than 1200 households, together with the professional analysis and views of the Melbourne Institute. These views and findings do not necessarily coincide with those of the Westpac Banking Corporation. For information on the data contained in the report contact the Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne, on (03) 8344 2196.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research This report is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced without written permission.
ISSN 1836-4217 (Online)
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 8
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