Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Report, December
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Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index December 2009 Table 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Seasonally Adjusted* 112.5 92.0 Trend** 108.7 89.1 See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Nov 2009
% change on Dec 2008
118.3 117.8
113.8 116.0
-3.8 -1.5
23.7 30.2
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index decreased by 3.8 per cent to 113.8 in December from 118.3 in November. This is the second month the index fell. But, the number optimists still dominate pessimists.
Consumer sentiment fell for the second month
All five component indices fell in December (see Table 2) with the largest decrease of 7.2 per cent registered by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 12 months, followed by 6 per cent decline in family finances next 12 months. Overall, the expectations index declined by 4.9 per cent to 117.0 and the current conditions index fell by 2.1 per cent to 109.0.
…with further declines in all five component indices
Decreases in consumer sentiment were recorded in most groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics (see Table 3) except for the age group between 18 and 24 years, the home rental group, and the occupation group of labourers and operators. This month’s survey was conducted in the week where the RBA increased the official cash rate by 0.25 per cent. The top news recall in December was ‘economic conditions’, followed by ‘interest rates’, while the news heard index decreased for all topics except for ‘employment’ (see Table 5). Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index
20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 Dec-03
Trend Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Index
10
0
-10
-20 Dec-03
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * In June 2006 we moved to reporting seasonally unadjusted series after we conducted a series of tests on the data which indicated no statistical evidence of seasonality. However, further research showed that the January monthly changes were, in general, significantly larger than the average monthly changes for the rest of the year. Consequently, we have adopted a new methodology to filter the raw data for the regular large monthly movements in January. This new filtered series is our new seasonally-adjusted (SA) CSI. **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA) Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Nov 2009
% change on Dec 2008
Family finances vs a year ago
103.0
74.3
92.8
91.0
-1.9
22.5
Family finances next 12 months
112.4
111.1
117.6
110.6
-6.0
-0.5
Economic conditions next 12 months
124.1
71.4
128.1
118.9
-7.2
66.5
Economic conditions next 5 years
104.5 118.3
97.6 105.4
123.2 129.9
121.5 126.9
-1.4 -2.3
24.5 20.4
Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index*
110.6 89.9 111.3 109.0 -2.1 113.7 93.4 123.0 117.0 -4.9 Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions. Expectations Index**
21.3 25.3
Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender By age
By home ownership
By Fed. voting intention By occupation
By household income p.a.
By area
Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Nov 2009
% change on Dec 2008
Male
116.2
96.3
123.3
120.6
-2.1
25.3
Female
108.9
87.8
113.7
107.3
-5.6
22.1
18-24
127.1
100.3
123.7
131.8
6.5
31.5
25-44
112.5
95.8
119.9
113.3
-5.5
18.3
Over 45
108.8
86.7
115.8
110.1
-4.9
27.0
Tenant
116.6
99.7
115.5
117.4
1.6
17.7
Mortgagee
108.0
93.1
119.7
109.1
-8.9
17.2
Wholly owned
113.4
87.0
120.8
115.9
-4.1
33.2
Coalition
104.2
84.8
111.2
108.5
-2.4
28.0
ALP
121.0
98.9
124.4
122.5
-1.6
23.8
Manager/prof.
115.2
93.3
122.2
120.0
-1.8
28.6
Paraprof./trades
116.4
87.5
119.3
115.4
-3.3
31.9
Sales/clerical
111.1
101.1
120.8
112.9
-6.6
11.7
Lab./operator
101.9
94.3
114.2
116.6
2.1
23.7
Not working
110.6
88.8
115.1
107.1
-7.0
20.6
Up to $20K
103.0
92.3
106.0
97.6
-7.9
5.7
$20 to $40K
106.9
90.4
114.6
113.2
-1.2
25.2
$40 to $60K
113.8
91.5
118.2
103.8
-12.2
13.4
Over $60K
116.7
95.1
124.1
121.3
-2.3
27.6
Metropolitan
114.5 109.7
93.7 89.6
119.3 115.9
115.4 110.6
-3.2 -4.5
23.2 23.5
Non- Metro.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04 prices
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months 120
% change, 1 quarter lead
Index
120
2.4 17 12
1.4
100
100
80
80
7 2
0.4
-3 -8
-0.6
Trend
Retail sales growth (LHS)
-1.6
60 Dec-03
-18
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Index
140
120
120
100
100
60 Dec-09
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
Trend
80 Dec-05
Trend
Dec-07
Dec-09
40 Dec-03
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years Index
120
120
100
100
80
80
Dec-05
Dec-07
40 Dec-09
Index
60 Dec-09
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
SA Dec-07
Dec-05
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items 140 160
Trend
60
SA
SA
80
60 Dec-03
Dec-07
Index
140
140
Dec-05
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months
Dec-03
SA
-13
Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
60 Dec-03
Trend Dec-05
80
SA Dec-07
60 Dec-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index
Index Optimists - pessimists +100
140 130
110
90
SA 70 Dec-03
Trend
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
120
100
SA
Trend
80 Dec-03
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Index
Index
Index
140
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80 Less than $20,000
Mortgage 60 Dec-03
140
Dec-05
60 Dec-09
Dec-07
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
120
100
100
Metro Non metropolitan
80
60 Dec-03
Dec-05
$60,000+
Home owner
Dec-07
80
60 Dec-03
160
Dec-05
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA) Index
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80 Coalition
60 Dec-09
60 Dec-09
Dec-07
60 Dec-03
Dec-05
ALP
Dec-07
60 Dec-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 4
Table 4: Time to buy a Dwelling and Car Indices
Time to Buy a Dwelling Index Time to Buy a Car Index
Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Sep 2009
% change on Dec 2008
81.0 121.2
136.8 118.6
144.9 139.1
127.0 132.7
-12.3 -4.6
-7.2 11.9
200
Chart 8: Time to B uy a Dw elling and D welling Approvals* Number, Index , 3 quarter seasonally adjusted lead 60000
160
50000
120
40000
80
30000 Time to buy a dwelling (LHS)
40
Chart 9 : Time to Buy a Car 160
Inde
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
20000
Private sector dwelling approvals (RHS) 0 D ec 99
Dec 01
Dec 03
D ec 05
Dec 07
80 Dec 99
10000 Dec 09
Dec 01
Table 5: News Heard Indices – by topic News Recall Level**
Dec 03
Dec 05
Dec 07
News Heard Index***
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
3.6
4.6
5.9
63.6
124.1
82.1
Budget & Taxation
11.8
21.5
19.9
71.3
125.9
53.2
Inflation
15.6
12.0
15.6
63.1
98.4
63.2
Politics
Employment
9.3
12.9
9.2
15.3
75.1
86.5
Interest rates
56.5
32.6
43.2
89.4
93.8
62.4
8.0
3.7
4.8
51.5
110.2
92.6
90.2
69.2
54.7
33.8
137.5
100.5
25.9
16.3
19.3
26.1
112.9
86.3
Australian Dollar Economic conditions International conditions
80 Dec 09
**Proportion of respondents recalling each news topic. ***Percentage who reported that the news was favourable minus percentage unfavourable plus 100.
*Source: ABS Catalogue No. 8731.0, Building Approvals: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 5
Chart 10b: News Heard Index
Chart 10a: News Recall Level - June 2008 140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
International conditions Economic conditions Australian Dollar Interest rates Employment Inflation
20
20 Budget & Taxation
Budget & Taxation
0 Dec-01
Politics 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Inflation
Dec-05
Dec-06
Interest rates
Dec-07
Dec-08
0 Dec-09
90
Chart 10d: News Heard Index
Chart 10c: News Recall Level - September 2008 160
160
140
140
120
120
International conditions Economic conditions Australian Dollar
100
100
Interest rates
80
80
Employment
60
60
Inflation
40
40
20
Budget & Taxation
0 Dec-01
Politics 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Employment
Dec-02
Dec-03
Australian Dollar
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Economic conditions
Dec-07
Dec-08
20
0 Dec-09
80
Chart 10f: News Heard Index
Chart 10e: News Recall Level - December 2008 140
140
120
120
100
100
International conditions Economic conditions Australian Dollar
80
80
60
60
40
40
Interest rates Employment Inflation
20
Politics
Budget & Taxation
0 Dec-01
Politics 0
10
20
30
40
50
20
International conditions
0
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
60
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 6
Table 6: Wisest place for savings (per cent of respondents) Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Sep 2009
% change on Dec 2008
Banks
22.3
36.9
26.7
29.0
2.3
-7.8
Building societies
1.8
1.0
2.2
2.0
-0.2
1.0
Bonds
1.4
1.3
1.0
1.2
0.2
-0.1
Shares
14.6
8.1
13.4
10.5
-2.9
2.4
Real estates
21.1
13.4
15.6
18.5
2.9
5.1
Credit union
1.0
2.0
1.8
2.3
0.5
0.4
Cash management trust
2.0
1.3
1.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
Pay debt
12.9
23.0
25.5
20.7
-4.8
-2.3
Superanuation
7.2
2.6
5.0
5.1
0.1
2.5
Spend it
4.9
3.8
5.6
5.6
-0.1
1.7
Other
9.3
5.1
1.7
4.0
2.3
-1.2
Don't know Total
1.5 100
1.4 100
0.4 100
0.2 100
-0.1 0
-1.2 0
Released: 9 December 2009 Interview period: 30 November - 6 December 2009 Sample size: 1200
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 7
Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment index has been designed as a trend-less variable that provides an indication of the level of and shifts in consumer sentiment over time. The index is an average of five component indexes which in turn reflect the balance of favourable and unfavourable responses to five survey questions. These questions relate to family finances a year ago and in the next 12 months, economic conditions in the next 12 months and next 5 years, and good or bad time to buy major household items. An index level of 100 indicates that the balance of confidence or optimism is equally weighted, while an index of greater than 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The consumer sentiment index has been found to be a good predictor of economic activity.
Disclaimer: Westpac Banking Corporation, the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne Institute give no representation, make no warranty, nor take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein and will not be liable in contract tort, for negligence or for any loss or damage arising from reliance on any such information. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment report presents the results of a survey of more than 1200 households, together with the professional analysis and views of the Melbourne Institute. These views and findings do not necessarily coincide with those of the Westpac Banking Corporation. For information on the data contained in the report contact the Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne, on (03) 8344 2196. 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research This report is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced without written permission.
ISSN 1836-4217 (Online)
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 8
Dec 2008
Seasonally Adjusted* 112.5 92.0 Trend** 108.7 89.1 See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Nov 2009
% change on Dec 2008
118.3 117.8
113.8 116.0
-3.8 -1.5
23.7 30.2
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index decreased by 3.8 per cent to 113.8 in December from 118.3 in November. This is the second month the index fell. But, the number optimists still dominate pessimists.
Consumer sentiment fell for the second month
All five component indices fell in December (see Table 2) with the largest decrease of 7.2 per cent registered by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 12 months, followed by 6 per cent decline in family finances next 12 months. Overall, the expectations index declined by 4.9 per cent to 117.0 and the current conditions index fell by 2.1 per cent to 109.0.
…with further declines in all five component indices
Decreases in consumer sentiment were recorded in most groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics (see Table 3) except for the age group between 18 and 24 years, the home rental group, and the occupation group of labourers and operators. This month’s survey was conducted in the week where the RBA increased the official cash rate by 0.25 per cent. The top news recall in December was ‘economic conditions’, followed by ‘interest rates’, while the news heard index decreased for all topics except for ‘employment’ (see Table 5). Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index
20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 Dec-03
Trend Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Index
10
0
-10
-20 Dec-03
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * In June 2006 we moved to reporting seasonally unadjusted series after we conducted a series of tests on the data which indicated no statistical evidence of seasonality. However, further research showed that the January monthly changes were, in general, significantly larger than the average monthly changes for the rest of the year. Consequently, we have adopted a new methodology to filter the raw data for the regular large monthly movements in January. This new filtered series is our new seasonally-adjusted (SA) CSI. **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA) Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Nov 2009
% change on Dec 2008
Family finances vs a year ago
103.0
74.3
92.8
91.0
-1.9
22.5
Family finances next 12 months
112.4
111.1
117.6
110.6
-6.0
-0.5
Economic conditions next 12 months
124.1
71.4
128.1
118.9
-7.2
66.5
Economic conditions next 5 years
104.5 118.3
97.6 105.4
123.2 129.9
121.5 126.9
-1.4 -2.3
24.5 20.4
Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index*
110.6 89.9 111.3 109.0 -2.1 113.7 93.4 123.0 117.0 -4.9 Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions. Expectations Index**
21.3 25.3
Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender By age
By home ownership
By Fed. voting intention By occupation
By household income p.a.
By area
Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Nov 2009
% change on Dec 2008
Male
116.2
96.3
123.3
120.6
-2.1
25.3
Female
108.9
87.8
113.7
107.3
-5.6
22.1
18-24
127.1
100.3
123.7
131.8
6.5
31.5
25-44
112.5
95.8
119.9
113.3
-5.5
18.3
Over 45
108.8
86.7
115.8
110.1
-4.9
27.0
Tenant
116.6
99.7
115.5
117.4
1.6
17.7
Mortgagee
108.0
93.1
119.7
109.1
-8.9
17.2
Wholly owned
113.4
87.0
120.8
115.9
-4.1
33.2
Coalition
104.2
84.8
111.2
108.5
-2.4
28.0
ALP
121.0
98.9
124.4
122.5
-1.6
23.8
Manager/prof.
115.2
93.3
122.2
120.0
-1.8
28.6
Paraprof./trades
116.4
87.5
119.3
115.4
-3.3
31.9
Sales/clerical
111.1
101.1
120.8
112.9
-6.6
11.7
Lab./operator
101.9
94.3
114.2
116.6
2.1
23.7
Not working
110.6
88.8
115.1
107.1
-7.0
20.6
Up to $20K
103.0
92.3
106.0
97.6
-7.9
5.7
$20 to $40K
106.9
90.4
114.6
113.2
-1.2
25.2
$40 to $60K
113.8
91.5
118.2
103.8
-12.2
13.4
Over $60K
116.7
95.1
124.1
121.3
-2.3
27.6
Metropolitan
114.5 109.7
93.7 89.6
119.3 115.9
115.4 110.6
-3.2 -4.5
23.2 23.5
Non- Metro.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04 prices
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months 120
% change, 1 quarter lead
Index
120
2.4 17 12
1.4
100
100
80
80
7 2
0.4
-3 -8
-0.6
Trend
Retail sales growth (LHS)
-1.6
60 Dec-03
-18
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Index
140
120
120
100
100
60 Dec-09
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
Trend
80 Dec-05
Trend
Dec-07
Dec-09
40 Dec-03
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years Index
120
120
100
100
80
80
Dec-05
Dec-07
40 Dec-09
Index
60 Dec-09
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
SA Dec-07
Dec-05
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items 140 160
Trend
60
SA
SA
80
60 Dec-03
Dec-07
Index
140
140
Dec-05
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months
Dec-03
SA
-13
Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
60 Dec-03
Trend Dec-05
80
SA Dec-07
60 Dec-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index
Index Optimists - pessimists +100
140 130
110
90
SA 70 Dec-03
Trend
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
120
100
SA
Trend
80 Dec-03
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Index
Index
Index
140
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80 Less than $20,000
Mortgage 60 Dec-03
140
Dec-05
60 Dec-09
Dec-07
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
120
100
100
Metro Non metropolitan
80
60 Dec-03
Dec-05
$60,000+
Home owner
Dec-07
80
60 Dec-03
160
Dec-05
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA) Index
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80 Coalition
60 Dec-09
60 Dec-09
Dec-07
60 Dec-03
Dec-05
ALP
Dec-07
60 Dec-09
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 4
Table 4: Time to buy a Dwelling and Car Indices
Time to Buy a Dwelling Index Time to Buy a Car Index
Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Sep 2009
% change on Dec 2008
81.0 121.2
136.8 118.6
144.9 139.1
127.0 132.7
-12.3 -4.6
-7.2 11.9
200
Chart 8: Time to B uy a Dw elling and D welling Approvals* Number, Index , 3 quarter seasonally adjusted lead 60000
160
50000
120
40000
80
30000 Time to buy a dwelling (LHS)
40
Chart 9 : Time to Buy a Car 160
Inde
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
20000
Private sector dwelling approvals (RHS) 0 D ec 99
Dec 01
Dec 03
D ec 05
Dec 07
80 Dec 99
10000 Dec 09
Dec 01
Table 5: News Heard Indices – by topic News Recall Level**
Dec 03
Dec 05
Dec 07
News Heard Index***
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
3.6
4.6
5.9
63.6
124.1
82.1
Budget & Taxation
11.8
21.5
19.9
71.3
125.9
53.2
Inflation
15.6
12.0
15.6
63.1
98.4
63.2
Politics
Employment
9.3
12.9
9.2
15.3
75.1
86.5
Interest rates
56.5
32.6
43.2
89.4
93.8
62.4
8.0
3.7
4.8
51.5
110.2
92.6
90.2
69.2
54.7
33.8
137.5
100.5
25.9
16.3
19.3
26.1
112.9
86.3
Australian Dollar Economic conditions International conditions
80 Dec 09
**Proportion of respondents recalling each news topic. ***Percentage who reported that the news was favourable minus percentage unfavourable plus 100.
*Source: ABS Catalogue No. 8731.0, Building Approvals: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 5
Chart 10b: News Heard Index
Chart 10a: News Recall Level - June 2008 140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
International conditions Economic conditions Australian Dollar Interest rates Employment Inflation
20
20 Budget & Taxation
Budget & Taxation
0 Dec-01
Politics 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Inflation
Dec-05
Dec-06
Interest rates
Dec-07
Dec-08
0 Dec-09
90
Chart 10d: News Heard Index
Chart 10c: News Recall Level - September 2008 160
160
140
140
120
120
International conditions Economic conditions Australian Dollar
100
100
Interest rates
80
80
Employment
60
60
Inflation
40
40
20
Budget & Taxation
0 Dec-01
Politics 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Employment
Dec-02
Dec-03
Australian Dollar
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Economic conditions
Dec-07
Dec-08
20
0 Dec-09
80
Chart 10f: News Heard Index
Chart 10e: News Recall Level - December 2008 140
140
120
120
100
100
International conditions Economic conditions Australian Dollar
80
80
60
60
40
40
Interest rates Employment Inflation
20
Politics
Budget & Taxation
0 Dec-01
Politics 0
10
20
30
40
50
20
International conditions
0
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
60
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 6
Table 6: Wisest place for savings (per cent of respondents) Dec 2007
Dec 2008
Sep 2009
Dec 2009
% change on Sep 2009
% change on Dec 2008
Banks
22.3
36.9
26.7
29.0
2.3
-7.8
Building societies
1.8
1.0
2.2
2.0
-0.2
1.0
Bonds
1.4
1.3
1.0
1.2
0.2
-0.1
Shares
14.6
8.1
13.4
10.5
-2.9
2.4
Real estates
21.1
13.4
15.6
18.5
2.9
5.1
Credit union
1.0
2.0
1.8
2.3
0.5
0.4
Cash management trust
2.0
1.3
1.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
Pay debt
12.9
23.0
25.5
20.7
-4.8
-2.3
Superanuation
7.2
2.6
5.0
5.1
0.1
2.5
Spend it
4.9
3.8
5.6
5.6
-0.1
1.7
Other
9.3
5.1
1.7
4.0
2.3
-1.2
Don't know Total
1.5 100
1.4 100
0.4 100
0.2 100
-0.1 0
-1.2 0
Released: 9 December 2009 Interview period: 30 November - 6 December 2009 Sample size: 1200
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 7
Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment index has been designed as a trend-less variable that provides an indication of the level of and shifts in consumer sentiment over time. The index is an average of five component indexes which in turn reflect the balance of favourable and unfavourable responses to five survey questions. These questions relate to family finances a year ago and in the next 12 months, economic conditions in the next 12 months and next 5 years, and good or bad time to buy major household items. An index level of 100 indicates that the balance of confidence or optimism is equally weighted, while an index of greater than 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The consumer sentiment index has been found to be a good predictor of economic activity.
Disclaimer: Westpac Banking Corporation, the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne Institute give no representation, make no warranty, nor take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein and will not be liable in contract tort, for negligence or for any loss or damage arising from reliance on any such information. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment report presents the results of a survey of more than 1200 households, together with the professional analysis and views of the Melbourne Institute. These views and findings do not necessarily coincide with those of the Westpac Banking Corporation. For information on the data contained in the report contact the Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne, on (03) 8344 2196. 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research This report is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced without written permission.
ISSN 1836-4217 (Online)
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
Page 8
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