Consumer Sentiment May 2009
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Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index May 2009 Table 1: Consumer Sentiment Index
Seasonally Adjusted* Trend**
May 2007
May 2008
Apr 2009
May 2009
% change on Apr 2009
123.9 120.2
89.8 87.3
92.7 89.0
88.8 90.7
-4.3 1.9
% change on May 2008
-1.1 3.9
See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 4.3 per cent in May to 88.8 from 92.7 in April, reversing some of the positive gains made last month.
Consumer sentiment fell in May
Three of the five component indices fell in May (see Table 2) with a decrease of 13.6 per cent recorded by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 5 years. Decreases of 7.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent were also recorded by the two component indices about family finances (for the next 12 months and vs a year ago). However, the component index reflecting good or bad time to buy major household items rose by 7.3 per cent. Overall, the current conditions index rose by 1.1 per cent, but the expectations index fell by 8.0 per cent.
…with decline in the expectations index
Decreases in consumer sentiment were recorded in most groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics (see Table 3). This month’s survey was conducted in the week which includes the presentation of the Federal Budget for 2009/10 as well as the projected government budget deficits over the next few years. Interestingly, the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the ALP was up by 2.6 per cent while the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the Coalition was down by 5.7 per cent. Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index
20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 May-03
Trend May-05
May-07
May-09
Index
10
0
-10
-20 May-03
May-05
May-07
May-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * In June 2006 we moved to reporting seasonally unadjusted series after we conducted a series of tests on the data which indicated no statistical evidence of seasonality. However, further research showed that the January monthly changes were, in general, significantly larger than the average monthly changes for the rest of the year. Consequently, we have adopted a new methodology to filter the raw data for the regular large monthly movements in January. This new filtered series is our new seasonally-adjusted (SA) CSI. **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA)
Family finances vs a year ago Family finances next 12 months Economic conditions next 12 months Economic conditions next 5 years Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index* Expectations Index**
May 2007
May 2008
Apr 2009
May 2009
% change on Apr 2009
% change on May 2008
99.1 124.1 137.9 112.8 145.8
76.9 100.0 87.0 97.7 87.2
82.0 110.6 62.2 101.6 107.4
76.3 102.5 62.2 87.8 115.2
-7.0 -7.3 0.0 -13.6 7.3
-0.8 2.4 -28.6 -10.1 32.1
122.5 124.9
82.0 94.9
94.7 91.4
95.7 84.1
1.1 -8.0
16.7 -11.4
Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions.
Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender
Male Female
By age
18-24 25-44 Over 45
By home ownership
Tenant Mortgagee Wholly owned
By Fed. voting intention
Coalition ALP
By occupation
Manager/prof. Paraprof./trades Sales/clerical Lab./operator Not working
By household income p.a.
Up to $20K $20 to $40K $40 to $60K Over $60K
By area
Metropolitan Non- Metro.
May 2007
May 2008
Apr 2009
May 2009
% change on Apr 2009
% change on May 2008
130.8 117.3 126.3 127.6 120.3 128.4 123.0 123.2 142.7 113.6 135.3 121.7 131.1 108.6 116.0 108.4 110.8 127.1 132.6 128.8 114.8
97.9 82.1 112.3 90.3 84.2 96.6 83.6 91.1 80.3 98.9 86.4 108.3 83.4 92.0 88.0 89.3 80.6 91.3 92.2 94.1 80.7
96.3 89.3 96.4 97.6 87.8 99.2 93.1 90.1 84.6 95.3 97.1 93.2 96.4 98.7 87.1 89.6 90.8 87.5 96.3 90.0 96.7
94.2 83.4 96.5 90.3 85.7 92.6 87.9 88.1 79.7 97.8 87.1 96.7 84.4 92.3 87.5 86.1 85.1 93.6 90.1 89.6 87.5
-2.2 -6.5 0.1 -7.4 -2.4 -6.7 -5.7 -2.3 -5.7 2.6 -10.3 3.7 -12.4 -6.5 0.4 -3.9 -6.3 7.0 -6.5 -0.4 -9.4
-3.8 1.7 -14.1 0.1 1.8 -4.1 5.2 -3.3 -0.7 -1.1 0.8 -10.7 1.3 0.3 -0.6 -3.6 5.5 2.5 -2.3 -4.7 8.5
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth* % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04 prices
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months 120
% change, 1 quarter lead
Index
120
12
2.4
7 1.4
100
100
80
80
2 -3
0.4
-8 -0.6
Retail sales growth (LHS)
Trend
-13
Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
-1.6
60 May-03
-18
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Index
140 140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
120
120
100
100 60
Trend
80 May-05
Trend
May-07
May-09
40 May-03
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years Index
120
120
100
100
80
80
May-05
May-07
40 May-09
Index 160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
SA May-07
May-05
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items 140
Trend
60
SA
SA
80
60 May-03
60 May-09
May-07
Index
140
140
May-05
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months
May-03
SA
60 May-09
60 May-03
Trend May-05
80
SA May-07
60 May-09
*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No. 6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index
Index Optimists - pessimists +100
140 130
110
90
SA 70 May-03
Trend
May-05
May-07
May-09
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
120
100
SA
Trend
80 May-03
May-05
May-07
May-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index Index
Index
Index
140
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80 Less than $20,000
Mortgage 60 May-03
140
May-05
Home owner 60 May-09
May-07
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
120
100
100
80
60 May-03
Metro Non metropolitan
May-05
$60,000+
May-07
Released: 20 May 2009 Interview period: 11 May – 17 May 2009 Sample size: 1200
80
60 May-03
160
May-05
60 May-09
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA) Index Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80 Coalition
60 May-09
May-07
60 May-03
May-05
ALP
May-07
60 May-09
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 4
Seasonally Adjusted* Trend**
May 2007
May 2008
Apr 2009
May 2009
% change on Apr 2009
123.9 120.2
89.8 87.3
92.7 89.0
88.8 90.7
-4.3 1.9
% change on May 2008
-1.1 3.9
See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 4.3 per cent in May to 88.8 from 92.7 in April, reversing some of the positive gains made last month.
Consumer sentiment fell in May
Three of the five component indices fell in May (see Table 2) with a decrease of 13.6 per cent recorded by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 5 years. Decreases of 7.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent were also recorded by the two component indices about family finances (for the next 12 months and vs a year ago). However, the component index reflecting good or bad time to buy major household items rose by 7.3 per cent. Overall, the current conditions index rose by 1.1 per cent, but the expectations index fell by 8.0 per cent.
…with decline in the expectations index
Decreases in consumer sentiment were recorded in most groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics (see Table 3). This month’s survey was conducted in the week which includes the presentation of the Federal Budget for 2009/10 as well as the projected government budget deficits over the next few years. Interestingly, the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the ALP was up by 2.6 per cent while the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the Coalition was down by 5.7 per cent. Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index
20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 May-03
Trend May-05
May-07
May-09
Index
10
0
-10
-20 May-03
May-05
May-07
May-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * In June 2006 we moved to reporting seasonally unadjusted series after we conducted a series of tests on the data which indicated no statistical evidence of seasonality. However, further research showed that the January monthly changes were, in general, significantly larger than the average monthly changes for the rest of the year. Consequently, we have adopted a new methodology to filter the raw data for the regular large monthly movements in January. This new filtered series is our new seasonally-adjusted (SA) CSI. **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA)
Family finances vs a year ago Family finances next 12 months Economic conditions next 12 months Economic conditions next 5 years Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index* Expectations Index**
May 2007
May 2008
Apr 2009
May 2009
% change on Apr 2009
% change on May 2008
99.1 124.1 137.9 112.8 145.8
76.9 100.0 87.0 97.7 87.2
82.0 110.6 62.2 101.6 107.4
76.3 102.5 62.2 87.8 115.2
-7.0 -7.3 0.0 -13.6 7.3
-0.8 2.4 -28.6 -10.1 32.1
122.5 124.9
82.0 94.9
94.7 91.4
95.7 84.1
1.1 -8.0
16.7 -11.4
Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions.
Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender
Male Female
By age
18-24 25-44 Over 45
By home ownership
Tenant Mortgagee Wholly owned
By Fed. voting intention
Coalition ALP
By occupation
Manager/prof. Paraprof./trades Sales/clerical Lab./operator Not working
By household income p.a.
Up to $20K $20 to $40K $40 to $60K Over $60K
By area
Metropolitan Non- Metro.
May 2007
May 2008
Apr 2009
May 2009
% change on Apr 2009
% change on May 2008
130.8 117.3 126.3 127.6 120.3 128.4 123.0 123.2 142.7 113.6 135.3 121.7 131.1 108.6 116.0 108.4 110.8 127.1 132.6 128.8 114.8
97.9 82.1 112.3 90.3 84.2 96.6 83.6 91.1 80.3 98.9 86.4 108.3 83.4 92.0 88.0 89.3 80.6 91.3 92.2 94.1 80.7
96.3 89.3 96.4 97.6 87.8 99.2 93.1 90.1 84.6 95.3 97.1 93.2 96.4 98.7 87.1 89.6 90.8 87.5 96.3 90.0 96.7
94.2 83.4 96.5 90.3 85.7 92.6 87.9 88.1 79.7 97.8 87.1 96.7 84.4 92.3 87.5 86.1 85.1 93.6 90.1 89.6 87.5
-2.2 -6.5 0.1 -7.4 -2.4 -6.7 -5.7 -2.3 -5.7 2.6 -10.3 3.7 -12.4 -6.5 0.4 -3.9 -6.3 7.0 -6.5 -0.4 -9.4
-3.8 1.7 -14.1 0.1 1.8 -4.1 5.2 -3.3 -0.7 -1.1 0.8 -10.7 1.3 0.3 -0.6 -3.6 5.5 2.5 -2.3 -4.7 8.5
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth* % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04 prices
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months 120
% change, 1 quarter lead
Index
120
12
2.4
7 1.4
100
100
80
80
2 -3
0.4
-8 -0.6
Retail sales growth (LHS)
Trend
-13
Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
-1.6
60 May-03
-18
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Index
140 140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
120
120
100
100 60
Trend
80 May-05
Trend
May-07
May-09
40 May-03
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years Index
120
120
100
100
80
80
May-05
May-07
40 May-09
Index 160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
SA May-07
May-05
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items 140
Trend
60
SA
SA
80
60 May-03
60 May-09
May-07
Index
140
140
May-05
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months
May-03
SA
60 May-09
60 May-03
Trend May-05
80
SA May-07
60 May-09
*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No. 6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index
Index Optimists - pessimists +100
140 130
110
90
SA 70 May-03
Trend
May-05
May-07
May-09
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
120
100
SA
Trend
80 May-03
May-05
May-07
May-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index Index
Index
Index
140
140
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80 Less than $20,000
Mortgage 60 May-03
140
May-05
Home owner 60 May-09
May-07
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
120
100
100
80
60 May-03
Metro Non metropolitan
May-05
$60,000+
May-07
Released: 20 May 2009 Interview period: 11 May – 17 May 2009 Sample size: 1200
80
60 May-03
160
May-05
60 May-09
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA) Index Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80 Coalition
60 May-09
May-07
60 May-03
May-05
ALP
May-07
60 May-09
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 4
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