Climate

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (1750 to present) 370

parts per million volume

360 350 340

Mauna Loa (1958-present)

330

Siple Station (1750-)

320 310 300 290 280 270 1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm

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Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations

1800

parts per billion volume

1700 1600 1500

Law Dome (1841-1978)

1400

Cape Meares (1979-1991)

1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800

1840

1890

1940

1990

Data Source: D.M. Etheridge et al. Concentrations of CH4 from the Law Dome (East Side, "DE08" Site) Ice Core(a), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia. September 1994. Available: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/methane/lawdome.259. M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen, and F. Moraes. "Atmospheric methane at Cape Meares: Analysis of a high resolution data base and its environmental implications." Journal of Geophysical Research 98:14,753-14,770. 1993. Available: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/db1007/cmeares.mon

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How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions? Business-as-usual Kyoto Protocol scenario

Billion tons of carbon

8 6

8.0 7.6

6.4

5.8

4 2 0 1990

1995

2000

2005

Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.

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Greenhouse gas emission scenarios 14

Annual Emissions (GtC)

12

Stabilization Targets

10 8 6 4

450 ppmv

550

650

750

2 0 1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250 WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE

Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996 15,715

China

11,651

Germany

8,504

J apan

7,415

United Kingdom India

4,235

Canada

4,054

South Africa

2,331

Mexico

2,118

Australia

2,080

Brazil

1,557

Korea, Rep.

1,361 966

Indonesia

50,795

United States

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Million tons of carbon Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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Per capita emissions of carbon from industrial sources, 1996 4.63

Australia

2.91

Russian Federation

2.87

Germany

2.59

United Kingdom

2.54

J apan

2.46

Korea, Rep.

2.10

Ukraine

1.88

South Africa

1.02

Mexico

0.76

China

0.46

Brazil Indonesia

0.33

India

0.29 5.37

United States

0

1

2

3 4 Thousand tons of carbon

Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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