Budget Scenario Analysis
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Scenario 2 (Average case)
Scenario 3 (Worst case)
98%
95%
90%
Number of building permits released within last 6 months
25,000
30,000
35,000
Regional economic growth
3.50%
3.20%
2.00%
7
8
9
99%
95%
90%
Scenario 1 (Best case)
Scenario 2 (Average case)
Scenario 3 (Worst case)
Probability of shipping on time
2.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
Number of building permits released within last 6 months
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
Regional economic growth
2.0%
0.0%
-4.0%
Competitive strength (products, pricing, promotion, placement)
2.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
Probability of key supplier performance
2.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
Results
Base Case Variance
Variance Percentage
Scenario 1: Best case
$36,160,000
$4,160,000
11.50%
Scenario 2: Average case
$32,000,000
—
—
Scenario 3: Worst case
$24,320,000
($7,680,000)
-31.58%
Budget Drivers Probability of shipping on time
Competitive strength (products, pricing, promotion, placement) Probability of key supplier performance
Revenue Impact
Budgeted Annual Revenue Using Base Case Scenario Budget Scenarios
$32,000,000
Scenario Comparison - Annual Revenue
$37,500,000 $35,000,000 $32,500,000 $30,000,000 $27,500,000 $25,000,000 $22,500,000 $20,000,000 $17,500,000 $15,000,000 $12,500,000 $10,000,000 $7,500,000 $5,000,000 $2,500,000 $0 Scenario 1: Best case Scenario 2: Average case Scenario 3: Worst case
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