American Elections 2008

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AmericanElections2008: Theforeignpolicypositionsoftheleading candidatesforPresident ipprCommissiononNationalSecurity,BackgroundBriefingNote2 byKenGude February2008 ©ippr2008

InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch Challengingideas– Changingpolicy

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ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

Aboutippr TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank,producing cutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticandsustainableworld. Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakingintheUK.Through ourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeandprovidepractical solutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues. WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedaspossible, whileourinternationalandmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextendourpartnerships andinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch. ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:[email protected] www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065 ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinFebruary2008.©ippr2008

ipprCommissiononNationalSecurity ThisbriefingnoteformspartoftheongoingactivitiesoftheipprCommissiononNationalSecurity. Thisisanall-partyCommissionpreparinganindependentnationalsecuritystrategyfortheUK.Itis co-chairedbyLordRobertsonofPortEllenandLordAshdownofNorton-sub-Hamdon.Thefull Commissionmembershipincludes: •Lord(Paddy)Ashdown,Co-Chair,formerleader oftheLiberalDemocraticPartyandformer HighRepresentativeforBosnia. •Lord(George)Robertson,Co-Chair,former SecretaryofStateforDefenceandformer SecretaryGeneralofNATO. •DrIanKearns,DeputyChair,DeputyDirector, ippr. •SirJeremyGreenstock,DirectoroftheDitchley FoundationandformerBritishAmbassadorto theUnitedNations. •SirDavidOmand,formersecurityand intelligencecoordinatorintheCabinetOffice andformerPermanentSecretaryintheHome Office. •Lord(Charles)Guthrie,formerChiefofthe DefenceStaff. •ShamiChakrabarti,DirectorofLibertyand formerHomeOfficelawyer. •Lord(Martin)Rees,PresidentoftheRoyal SocietyandMasterofTrinityCollege, Cambridge. •SirChrisFox,formerChiefConstableof NorthamptonshireandformerPresidentofthe AssociationofChiefPoliceOfficers. •ProfessorMaryKaldor,CentreforGlobal Governance,LondonSchoolofEconomics.

•ProfessorMichaelClarke,Director,Royal UnitedServicesInstitute,andProfessorof DefenceStudiesatKing’sCollegeLondon. •FrancescaKlug,ProfessorialResearch FellowattheLondonSchoolofEconomics andacommissionerontheCommissionfor EqualityandHumanRights(CEHR). •ProfessorTariqModood,Directorofthe LeverhulmeProgrammeonMigrationand Citizenship,BristolUniversity. •SenatorTomDaschle,formerMajority LeaderoftheUnitedStatesSenate. •ConstanzeStelzenmüller,Directorofthe BerlinofficeoftheGermanMarshallFund. •DavidMepham,DirectorofPolicyatSave theChildrenandformerlyHeadofthe InternationalProgrammeatippr. •ProfessorJimNorton,formerchief executiveoftheRadioCommunications AgencyandnowattheInstituteof Directors. •IanTaylorMP,ChairoftheConservative PartyPolicyTask-forceonScience, Technology,EngineeringandMathematics, ConservativeMPforEsherandWaltonand formerministerforScienceandTechnology attheDepartmentofTradeandIndustry.

ipprwouldliketothankEDS,RaytheonSystemsLtd,DeLaRueandBoozAllenHamiltonfortheir generoussupportoftheCommission’sactivities.FormoreinformationontheworkoftheCommission pleasegotowww.ippr.org/security Theviewsinthisbriefingnotearethoseoftheauthoraloneandarebeingpublishedhereinthe hopeofadvancingpublicdebate.TheydonotrepresenttheviewsoftheCommissionpanelorthe viewsofanysponsoringorganisation.ThebriefingnoteserieseditorisIanKearns. Abouttheauthor:KenGudeisaSeniorAdvisertotheCommissiononNationalSecuirty.Hehas workedinWashingtonforseveralleadingAmericanthinktanks,includingtheCenterforAmerican Progress,theCenterforNationalSecurityStudiesandtheCouncilonForeignRelations.

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ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

AmericanElections2008: TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident Europeansarewatchingthe2008presidentialelectionintheUnitedStatesmorecloselythananyin recentmemory.FewAmericanleadershavebeenasunpopularinEuropeasGeorgeW.Bush,and manyacrossthecontinentarehopingforbigchangesfromthenextAmericanpresident. Thisshortbackgroundbriefingpaperintroducestheemergingforeignpolicypositionsoftheleading candidatesfortheWhiteHouseandhighlightskeypointsofdifferencebetweenindividualcandidates ontheonehand,andbetweenoverallDemocraticandRepublicanoutlooksontheother. PeeringintoacrystalballinanattempttoascertainpreciselyhowacandidatewouldactasPresident isextremelydifficultespeciallyduringtheroughandtumblefightforthenominationnowgoingonin bothparties.Observerswouldbewisetopaylittleattentiontomostofthebellicoserhetoriconshow duringthecampaign,andtoavoidgettingwrappedupinthebackandforthofdebateoverany particularissue.Thecandidates’immediateprioritiesareimportant,butitisdifficulttopredictwhich issueswilldominatetheinternationalagenda,andapresidency,yearsintothefuture.Castingbackto the2000campaignforexample,candidateGeorgeW.Bush’stopnationalsecurityprioritywasmissile defence,anissuethathasreturnedtotheforefrontrecentlybutwhichcouldhardlybedescribedas amongtheleadingforeignpolicyconcernsofhisadministration. Conversely,andwithhindsight,welearnedalotmorefromcandidateBush’sforeignpolicyadviser andcurrentSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRice,whowroteintheinfluentialjournalForeignAffairs, that‘foreignpolicyinaRepublicanadministrationwill…proceedfromthefirmgroundofthenational interest,notfromtheinterestsofanillusoryinternationalcommunity’(Rice2000,emphasisadded). Againstthisbackdrop,thoselookingforsignalsoffuturebehaviourshouldfocusonthephilosophical andstrategicapproachesofferedbythecandidates.

Twodifferentvisions InthecurrentcampaignforPresident,votersarebeingpresentedwithtwoverydifferentvisionsof Americanforeignpolicy.AlltheleadingDemocraticcandidatescallforamajorstrategicshiftinpolicy builtaroundasustainedefforttorestoretheUS’smoralauthority.TheyalsocallfortheUStoleada revitalisedandexpandedglobalalliance,believingthecountryanditsalliestobemoresecureand abletomeetabroadersetofchallengeswhenworkingtogetherthanwhenworkingalone.The remarkableunityoftheDemocraticcandidatesstemsfromafirmbeliefthatboththecausesand consequencesofthefailureofGeorgeW.Bush’sforeignpolicyarereadilyapparenttovotersandthat theDemocraticelectorateishungryforchange.Withinthisframe,however,eachoftheleading candidatesputsforwardadistinctpersonalapproachtointernationalpolicywithdifferingramifications andimpactsforalliesinEurope. AmongleadingRepublicancandidates,althoughthereismorediversityofviewthanamongtheir Democraticcounterparts,thereisalsoaclearunderlyingRepublicanbeliefthatthepower,position andsecurityoftheUSaredependentonthestrengthofitsmilitaryandthatonlythroughsustained investmentinthearmedforceswilltheUSachieveitsforeignandsecuritypolicygoals.Aswiththe Democrats,theleadingcandidatesdifferintheirindividualphilosophies,butwithonenotable exception(JohnMcCain),theycanbegenerallyclassifiedasfavouringeitherthemoreaggressive approachofGeorgeW.Bush’sfirstterm,ortherelativelymorepragmaticbutstilllessthanfully multilateralstyleofhissecond.Itisunclearwhethereitherofthesemodelswouldbecompatiblewith theneedtorepairafragmentedandstillstrainedtransatlanticalliance.

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TheDemocrats1 TheDemocraticcontest2 hasbeennarroweddowntothreecandidates,ofwhichtwoofthem,Hillary ClintonandBarackObama,arepittedinaback-and-forthbattleforthenominationthathasgrown increasinglybitter,whileJohnEdwards3 remainsindistantthirdplace.HillaryClinton,inhersecond termasaNewYorksenatorafterservingasFirstLadyduringBillClinton’seightyearsinoffice,was oncetheclearfrontrunner.Shewasknockedoffthatperchquiteforcefullyafterathird-placefinishin theIowacaucusbehindbothEdwardsandthewinner,Obama,surprisingmanyobserverswithhowfar sheappearedtohavefallensoquickly.Hercampaignseemedalmostatanendbeforesherightedthe shipwithastunningnarrowwininNewHampshire,followedbyanotherslimvictoryinNevada. BarackObama,afirst-termsenatorfromIllinois,appearedtoberollingtoanearlyknockoutblowin NewHampshireafterhisunexpectedlywidemarginofvictoryinIowa,whenyetanothertwistwas thrownintothiscampaignasClintonstunnedthepoliticalworldbycapturingtheNewHampshire primary.HetoohasregainedhisfootingandscoredablowoutwininSouthCarolina. JohnEdwards3’roleinthisracefromhereonislikelyeithertobeasaspoilerorkingmaker,butfor whomitisunclear.Hischancesofwinningthenominationareextremelyremote,butheisunlikelyto abandontheracebeforethe5Februaryprimaries.HelikelyhelpedObamaintheSouthCarolina primary,butcomeSuperTuesdayon5February,when22states(andtwoadditionalraces)hold primariesandcaucuses,itisbelievedthathehelpsClintonmore,peelingsomeofthechangevoters awayfromObama.AllsignspointtowardsatitanicbattleonSuperTuesdaybetweenthetwo heavyweightsatthetopoftheDemocraticrace,andthebattleforthenominationmaywellextend throughallofFebruaryandintoMarch. ThewarinIraq,theforgottenwarinAfghanistan,theBushAdministration’spoliciesondetaineesat GuantanamoandAbuGhraib,thelackofactiononclimatechange,thefactthatOsamabinLadenis stillatlarge,andthefailuretostopthegenocideinDarfurallriletheDemocraticelectorateand politiciansalikeandprovideaclearmandatetowhomeverwillbetheDemocraticnomineetopursuea policyofsignificantchangefromthelastsevenyears.WhenaddressingthestateoftheUnitedStates’ internationalpolicy,theleadingcandidatesallheedthiscallandusevirtuallythesamelanguageto describetheirvisionoftheUSintheworld. Clintonargues:‘thenextUSpresidentwillhaveamomentofopportunitytoreintroduceAmericato theworldandrestoreourleadership’(Clinton2007a).ObamachoosestolinkittothewarinIraq whenhesays:‘wemustbringthewartoaresponsibleendandthenrenewourleadership–military, diplomatic,moral–toconfrontnewthreatsandcapitalizeonnewopportunities’(Obama2007a). EdwardsalsotiesAmericanrecoverytoendingthewarinIraqandclaims:‘inthewakeoftheIraq debacle,wemustrestoreAmerica’sreputationformoralleadershipandreengagewiththeworld’ (Edwards2007a). Itisnotjustinthesecallsforrestoration,renewal,andreengagementthattheinternationalpostureof theseleadingcandidatesissimilar.Severalothercommonthemesareapparentamongthem.The Democraticcandidatesidentifysimilarthreatsandchallengesintoday’sinternationalsecurity

1.EachoftheleadingcandidateshaspreviewedtheirforeignpoliciesintheUS’sleadinginternational affairsjournalForeignAffairs.Thisseriesprovidesathoroughexplanationoftheirvisionandintentions andcoupledwithseveralmajoraddressesonforeignandsecuritypolicy,formsthebasisfortheforegoing analysis.Thearticlesandspeechesare:Clinton2007a,b,2006;Obama2007a-c;Edwards2007a-d(see Referencessectionofthispaperforfulldetails). 2.TheDemocraticraceoriginallyhadafieldofeightcandidates:Clinton,ObamaandEdwardsalong withNewMexicoGovernorBillRichardson,SenatorsJoeBiden(Delaware)andChrisDodd(Connecticut), andtwowhoheldnorealisticchanceofevercontendingforthenomination,CongressmanDenis KucinichofOhioandformerAlaskaSenatorMikeGravel.Richardson,BidenandDoddhaveall withdrawnfromtheracebutKucinichandGravelcontinuetheirquixoticpursuitofthenomination. 3.JohnEdwardsunexpectedlywithdrewfromtheraceafterthispaperhadgonetopublication.Hewill notbeactivelycompetingforvotesintheremainingprimaries,butwhichcandidatehissupporters choosetobackcouldverywellbedecisiveinaveryclosebattleforthenomination.

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environment,fromnuclearterrorismtothecomingclimatecatastrophe.Thereisbroadagreement abouttheneedtorebuildthealliancestructurethathasservedAmericanandEuropeaninterestsso wellandtoimprovethemultilateralinstitutionsthatsupportthatsystem.Thereisagreement,too,on theneedtoendtheover-relianceonthemilitaryandtousealloftheinstrumentsofnationalpower toachievetheUS’sglobalobjectiveswhilefosteringgreatercooperationinthefightagainstterrorism, bolsteringtheflaggingNATOeffortinAfghanistan,andreturningtoactiveandconsistent engagementintheMiddleEastPeaceProcess.Takingseriousactiontoreducegreenhousegas emissions,reinvigoratingaflounderingnuclearnon-proliferationregimeandworkingtowardsnuclear disarmamentallalsocommandwidesupport. GlobalisationandtradehavedividedtheDemocraticPartyfordecades,althoughthereisnowmore recognitionthroughoutthePartythatseriousactionmustbetakentomanagethenegative consequencesoffreetrade,andallthemajorcandidatesreflectthisgrowingconsensus.Evena majorityofRepublicans,accordingtoarecentpollintheWallStreetJournal,believethatfreetrade hasharmedtheAmericaneconomy(WallStreetJournal2007).Lookfortradeandglobalisationto becomemoreprominentcampaignissuesinthegeneralelectionparticularlyiftheAmericaneconomy continueswhatappearstobeaslidetowardsrecession.Thereissomepolicydisagreement,principally overthedirectionofAmericanpolicyinIraqandoverhowbesttodealwithIran,yetthemostserious divisionsamongthecandidatesaredifferencesintoneandoverallapproach. HillaryRodhamClinton HillaryClinton’sforeignpolicypositionsdrawheavilyontheexperienceofhertimeasFirstLady duringthe1990sandprojectanAmericaninternationaloutlookthatconformstothepoliciespursued duringthepresidencyofherhusband.Democratsatthattimewereconstantlyfightingaperception thattheywereweakonnationalsecurityanditisbecauseofthatexperienceratherthantheoftencitedconcernsabouthergender,thatHillaryClintonfocusesmoreonissuesofhardsecuritythanthe othertopcontenders.Sheusesemotivelanguagelike‘powerandprinciple’and‘astrongerAmerica’ andsteersasteady,practicalcourseinanefforttoburnishhercredentialsasalegitimatecommander inchief. Butitisnotjustthewordssheusestodescribeherpoliciesthatsetherapartfromtheother Democraticcandidates.Someofherpositionsonpressingissuesaredifferent,perhapsthemost obviousbeingonIraq.Asasenator,shevotedtogivePresidentBushauthoritytousemilitaryforce againstSaddamHussein,andwhileshehasbeenastrongcriticoftheBushAdministration’s implementationofthatauthority,shehasconsistentlyrefusedtoadmitheroriginalvotewasa mistake. Lookingforward,shewillnotprovideatimetableforwithdrawal,thoughpromisesonewithin60days oftakingoffice,andsupportsamuchmoregradualredeploymentofforcesoutofIraqthatcould leavesignificantnumbersofUStroopsinthecountrythroughtheendofherfirstterm.Becauseof this,shefocuseslessonIraqthantheothercandidatesandavoidsdrawingparallelsbetweenthe situationinIraqandthatinIran.ShehasprudentlynotruledoutmilitaryactionagainstIran,but clearlyprefersamorerobustdiplomaticefforttopersuadetheIraniansthatitisintheirintereststo forgotheirnuclearambitions.Sheismorecautious,however,withregardstodirectnegotiationswith Iranthanherrivals. BarackObama Befittinghisbroadercampaignforthepresidencyandhisrelativeyouth,BarackObamabringsa senseoffreshnesstohisapproachtointernationalpolicyandarticulatesavisionofpositive Americanengagementwiththeworld.ThatvisiondrawsontheAmericanexperienceof responsiblegloballeadershipbutarguesthatthethreatsandchallengeswefaceinthemodern worldrequirenewideasandnewthinking.Nowhereisthismoreevident,orcontroversial,thanin hisproposaltostartdirectnegotiationswithIran,evenmeetingwithPresidentMahmoud Ahmadinejadifnecessary,inanefforttohaltIran’snuclearprogramme.TheUShasnothadany directbi-lateralcontactswiththeIranianssince1979.AttheendoftheClintonadministration therewassomemovementtowardsbeginninganinformaldialogue,butnothingthatrepresents

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suchasignificantbreakwithestablishedpolicyasObama’sproposal.Hiscriticspointtothis proposalasevidenceofhisinexperience.ButforObama,eventhiscriticismfitsintohisvisionof breakingthrougholdboundariesandfindingnewsolutionstothechallengeshewouldfacein office. Anotheraspectofhiswillingnesstoseekoutnovelsolutionsisanewemphasisontheimportanceof theUSactingbeyonditsownnationalinterestandtowardsacommongood.Hehasanewapproach to‘softpower’asanunderusedpartofthecountry’sinternationalpolicy.Hewouldreorganisethe instrumentsofAmericangovernmentthatdeliverforeignassistanceandbetterintegratethose programmesintooverallgovernmentpolicytomoreeffectivelyachievethecountry’sinternational objectives.Heproposesamassiveincreaseinaidandanewoutlookthatviewsforeignassistanceas aninvestmentindevelopingsocieties,improvingeducation,healthcareandotherciviland governmentservicestohelpbreakthecycleofsystemicpoverty.And,ofcourse,ifBarackHussein ObamabecamePresident,hisphotograph,hisname,andhislifestoryalonewouldbeapowerfulnew symboloftheUnitedStatesofAmerica. JohnEdwards IfaprizewereavailableforbeingthemostcriticalofPresidentGeorgeW.Bush’spoliciesamongthe leadingDemocraticcandidates,thenJohnEdwardswouldwinit.Edwardshaschosenamorepopulist approachtohisoppositiontothePresident,particularlyinIraq,Iran,andthebroaderwaronterrorism. HewouldhaveallcombattroopsoutofIraqwithinhisfirstyearinoffice.Hedrawscloseparallels betweenthebuild-uptowarwithIraqin2002-03andthecurrentsituationinIranandrejectsapreemptivestrikeonIraninfavourofastrongerdiplomaticapproach.Hegoessquarelyafterthe terminologyofthe‘waronterrorism’andcallsforthemostsignificantoverhaulofinternationalpolicy onterrorismofallthecandidates. Edwards,morethaneitheroftheotherleadingDemocraticcandidates,defineshisinternationalpolicy asanegativereactionagainsttheBushAdministration’spoliciesratherthanbypushingan independent,positiveagendaofhisown.

TheRepublicans4 TheRepublicanfieldhasbeenmuchmorewideopenandfluidthantheDemocrats’,withfive differentcandidatesattimesclaimingthemantleoffrontrunner.5 Theracehasfinallysettleddownto athree-waycontestheadedintoSuperTuesdaywiththerecentdeparturesofFredThompsonand RudyGiuliani. EarlyleaderMcCainsawhiscampaignnearlydisintegrateduring2007buthascomebackstrongly afterwinsintheNewHampshire,SouthCarolina,andFloridaprimariesandistheclosestthingtoa legitimatefrontrunnerthisracehashad.ItisnotallsmoothsailingforMcCain,however,asitremains tobeseenifhehasenoughsupportamongactualRepublicanstoultimatelywinthenominationifthe racenarrowstoasmallerfield.MuchofMcCain’ssupportcomesfrommoderateRepublicansand registeredIndependents.FredThompson’srecentwithdrawalfromtheracenarrowsthefieldof candidatescompetingforthevotesofconservativeRepublicanstojustMittRomneyandMike Huckabee.YetthedepartureofRudyGiulianiclearsthefieldofanychallengertoMcCainamong moderateRepublicans.TheNewHampshireandSouthCarolinaprimariesareconsidered‘open’ primariesandallowIndependentstovoteinthem.Mostoftheupcomingprimariesare‘closed’and

4.FouroftheleadingcandidateshavepreviewedtheirforeignpoliciesintheleadingAmerican internationalaffairsjournalForeignAffairs:McCain,Romney,Huckabee,andGiuliani.Thisseries providesathoroughexplanationoftheirvisionandintentionsandcoupledwithseveralmajoraddresses onforeignandsecuritypolicy,formsthebasisfortheforegoinganalysis.Thearticlesandspeechesare: McCain2007a-d,Romney2007a-c,Huckabee2007a-b,2008(seeReferencesforfulldetails). 5.ThefirstfrontrunnerwasJohnMcCain,followedbyRudyGiulianiwhofellbehindFredThompson, whosuccumbedtoMittRomney,whowasbeateninIowabyMikeHuckabee.Outoftheninecandidates thathavebeenintheraceinall,fournowremain:JohnMcCain,MittRomney,MikeHuckabeeandRon Paul.RudyGiuliani,FredThompson,TomTancredo,DuncanHunterandSamBrownbackhavewithdrawn.

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onlyallowpreviouslyregisteredRepublicanstovote.Forexample,inSouthCarolina,MikeHuckabee wonamongRepublicans,withMcCain’smarginofvictorybeingprovidedbyIndependentswhovoted intheRepublicanprimary.McCainhasclearedthefirsthurdle,winningtheFloridaprimary,andnow carriessignificantmomentuminSuperTuesday. Romneyonceenjoyedwideleadsinthefirsttwostatesonlytolosethemboth,butrecoveredwitha campaign-savingwinoverMcCaininMichiganandremainsviableduetohisvastfinancialresources andreservationsaboutMcCainamongconservatives.Hecantakethecontesttoall21statesholding Republicanprimariesorcaucuseson5February,butnowlimpsintoSuperTuesdayneedingamajor reversaloffortunetosecurethenomination. InsurgentMikeHuckabee,aformerBaptistpreacher,hascapturedtheevangelicalbaseandusedtheir supporttosurgetovictoryinthefirsttestatthepollsinIowa,buthasstruggledtobroadenhis appealbeyondreligiousconservativesandremainswinlessinallofthecontestssincethen.Henow hasnorealhopeofwinningthenominationbarringsomethingstrangehappening,butcanstillbea factorintherace,peelingoffsomeconservativevotersfromRomneyandfurtherclearingthepathto thenominationforMcCain. IftheDemocraticprimaryelectorateisgivingitscandidatesamandateforchange,Republicanprimary voterswantmoreofthesame,andperhapsanevenmoreaggressiveapproachthanPresidentBushis currentlypursuing.TheRepublicanelectoratestronglybacksaggressiveprosecutionofthewaron terrorismandthewarinIraq.Consequently,thewaronterrorismandAmericanmilitarypowerarethe dominatingthemesofeverymajorRepublicancandidate’sforeignandsecuritypolicypositions. WheretheDemocratscriticiseanAmericanforeignpolicytooreliantonthemilitary,theRepublicans callforanevenbiggerinvestmentinmilitarypersonnelandequipment.AllRepublicansview Reagan’sdefencebuild-upduringthe1980sastheprimaryfactorthatbroughtaboutthedemiseof theSovietUnionandcastigatethedefencepoliciesoftheClintonadministration,ridiculingthepostColdWardrawdowninforcesandshrinkingofdefencebudgets.Forthem,itwasthisnaïvepursuitof a‘peacedividend’andacostly‘holidayfromhistory’thathascausedsomanyoftheUS’scurrent problems.Itisclear,then,thatnoRepublicancandidatecouldespouseamajorchangeinpolicyfrom theBushAdministrationonIraqorterrorismandhaveanyhopeofwinningthenominationanditis thisbackdropthatexplainsMittRomney’spledgeto‘doubleGuantanamo’(SouthCarolinaGOP Debate2007). ThoughtheleadingcontendersfortheRepublicannominationarecertainlylesssimilartooneanother thantheirDemocraticcounterparts,afewcommonthemesdoexist.Befittinganapproachthat emphasisesthemilitary,itisthemilitaryallianceNATOthatreceivesthemostattention,whilethe UnitedNationscomesinforheavycriticism.ThelatterisnotoverlysurprisingastheUNisheldinvery lowesteembymostRepublicans,butitisthenatureoftheapproachtoNATOthatisofgreat interest.Eachofthemajorcandidatescallsforsomesortofexpansionofthealliance,whetheritisto includenationsbeyondEuropeandtheNorthAtlantic,ortobecomethemilitaryforcebehindanew LeagueofDemocracies.Eachalsoagreesthatchangeisnecessaryintheorganisationofcivilian agenciesresponsibleforinternationalpolicy6,thoughevenheretheRepublicanpreferenceforthe militaryapproachshinesthroughwithacallforareorganisationofcivilianorganisationsalong Pentagonlines. Nevertheless,thecommonthemesdonotobscuresomerealdifferencesinthecandidates’experience ininternationalpolicy,theirapproachtoforeignaffairs,andthebreadthoftheirforeignpolicyvisions andpriorities.

6.TheseagenciesincludetheStateDepartment,theEnergyDepartment,andtheAgencyfor InternationalDevelopment,alongwithportionsofotherdepartmentsincludingJusticeandHomeland Security.

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JohnMcCain ArizonaSenatorJohnMcCainisbyfarthemostexperiencedoftheRepublicancandidates.AfivetermsenatorservingonboththeArmedServicesandForeignRelationsCommittees,hehashonedhis outlookonforeignandsecuritypolicyatthehighestlevelsofthelegislature.Itisnot,however,just thisWashingtonexperiencethatdefineshisvisionoftheUSintheworld,asheisoneofthemore prominentPrisonersofWarinAmericanhistory,servingmorethanfiveyearsattheinfamousHanoi Hiltonwherehewassubjectedtotortureandabuse. ThisisMcCain’ssecondbidfortheRepublicannomination,duellingwithGeorgeW.Bushin2000, duringwhichheearnedareputationassomethingofamaverick,andheisnotpopularwithmany conservatives.Overthelastsevenyearshehascourtedsomeofthoseright-wingRepublicansbut retainsareputation,particularlywiththemedia,asamanofclearconvictionthatdoesnotoften bendtopublicopinion.ThetwobestexamplesofthisarehispoliciesonIraqandimmigration.Heis theearliestandstrongestproponentofthecurrentUSmilitarysurgeinIraqandhasmaintainedthis positiondespiteclearoppositiontoitoutsidetheRepublicanelectorate.Itcouldbearguedthathe tailoredthatstancetocurryfavouramonghisparty’sbase,butthatdoesnotexplainhispositionon immigration,anissueatleastasimportantasIraqtoRepublicanprimaryvoters.Buckingthewaveof anti-immigrationsentimentsweepingthecountry,McCainhassteadfastlysupportedaplantoprovide apathwaytocitizenshipforthoseillegalimmigrantsalreadyintheUSandimprovethebroader immigrationsystemtogivemorepeopleachancetoenterthecountrylegallyinsearchof employment.ThisisveryunpopularwithRepublicanvoters,andMcCain’ssupportforthisproposal promptedhiscampaign’sstrugglesin2007andcouldendupcostinghimthenomination. McCain’sforeignpolicyvisionunderscoresthebreadthofhisexperience.HeistheoneRepublican candidateforwhomitisappropriatetodiscussawideseriesofforeignpolicypriorities,because leavingasidehispositionsonIraqandtheroleofthemilitary(andthoseareabigissuestoleave aside),hisforeignpolicyagendamorecloselyresemblestheDemocraticcandidates’thanthe Republicans’.McCaincallsforarevitalisationofthetransatlanticalliance,arestorationoftheUS’s moralauthoritybyclosingGuantanamoandrenouncingtorture,acap-and-tradesystemtoreduce greenhousegasemissions,arenewedemphasisontheMiddleEastPeaceProcess,andarecognition that‘powerintheworldtodayismovingeast’,necessitatinganewapproachtoChinaandtheentire Asia-Pacificregion. McCain’sbiggestproposalistoestablishaLeagueofDemocraciesthatwouldbebetterequipped thantheUNtoaddressthecrisisinDarfur,combatHIV/AIDS,andconfrontenvironmentaldisasters. TheseprioritiesaresomarkedlydifferentfromtheotherRepublicancandidatesthattheycannotbe reconciledwithaone-dimensionalforeignpolicyfocusedontheUSmilitary.Hiscommitmentto maintainingalargeUStrooppresenceinIraqmayhavetheconsequenceofforcinghisotherpriorities tothesidelines. MittRomney FormerMassachusettsGovernorMittRomneyisrelativelyinexperiencedinforeignaffairs,servingjust onetermasgovernorafteralong,extremelysuccessfulandlucrativecareerinprivateequity management.Yet,lookingbeyondRomney’shighlychargedrhetoricintheprimarycampaign,he presentsaforeignandsecuritypolicymoreakintotheBushAdministrationofthelastfewyearsthan tothebravadoofitsearlierdays.HeheavilyemphasisesthepowerandroleoftheUSmilitaryand callsforstaggeringincreasesinthesizeandbudgetofthecountry’sarmedforces,buthealso emphasisestheimportanceoftheWesternalliancestructureandcontributionsthatcanandmustbe madebythecountry’sallies.Romney’svisionistobuildastrategytounitetheUSanditsallies ‘aroundasharedunderstandingofhowtomeetanewgenerationofchallenges’(Romney2007a). ThesetofnewchallengesthatRomneyidentifiesisstillfocusedprimarilyonhardnationalsecurity issuesandheleavesoutsomeofthemosturgentissuesfacingtheinternationalcommunity.Heison recordasdescribingwhathecalls‘thejihadistthreat’as‘thedefiningchallengeofourtime’,andhe recommendsexpandingNATOorcreatinganewNATOdesignedtodefeatradicalIslamism(Romney 2007a).Heiscertainlykeeneronnon-proliferationthanothercandidates,butrestrictshisproposals

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towhathewouldlikeothercountriestodoandmakesnomentionofthegrowingmovementinsome quarterstowardssignificantreductionsintheUSnucleararsenal.7 RomneywoulddirectalargediplomaticeffortintheMiddleEast,focusingonboostingPalestinian economicprospectsratherthananemphasisontheIsraeli-Palestinianpeaceprocess.Climatechange ishardlyaddressedinanenergypolicymorefocusedonendingtherelianceonforeignoilthrough greaterdomesticenergyproduction.Romney’sviewsarevirtuallyunknownonthechangingpower dynamicsofthemodernworldsymbolisedbytherisingpowerofChinaandtherenewedpowerof Russia.HisattentiontopovertyalleviationandHIV/AIDSislimitedtoacallforareorganisationofthe civilianagencieswithforeignpolicyresponsibilitiesalongaPentagonmodel.Hedoesappeartohave learnedsomeofthelessonsofthelastsixyears,butisstillinexperiencedinforeignaffairsandwhile hisfocusisbroaderthansomecandidates’single-mindeddevotiontothewaronterrorism,hestill lacksclarityonanumberofimportantissuesthatwillfacethenextPresident. MikeHuckabee FormerArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabeeisbyfarandawaytheleastexperiencedininternational affairsofanyoftheleadingcandidatesfromeitherparty.Healsohasbeenviewedasunlikelytowin thenominationasarelativelyunknowngovernorfromasmallSouthernstatewithnonational exposureandlittlemoneyinacontestfullofwell-financedcandidateswithnationalreputations.But atthetimeofwriting,noothercandidatehastakenfirmholdoftheraceandwithhiswininIowaand narrowdefeatinSouthCarolina,hemustbecountedasarealcontender. WithHuckabee’slackofexperienceandhisfocusonthesocialissuesthatareprioritiesforhis evangelicalconservativebase,hisforeignpoliciesareextremelyunderdeveloped.Hismostdetailed efforttodatetolayouthisforeignpolicyintheJanuary/February2008editionofForeignAffairs grabbedheadlines– andcriticismfromhisopponent– forhisassertionthattheBushadministration’s foreignpolicysufferedfroman‘arrogantbunkermentality’(Huckabee2008).ItistruethatHuckabee pledgestochangethetoneofAmericanforeignpolicy,amovethatwouldnodoubtbewelcomedin Europe.ButwhatisalsoevidentfromhisForeignAffairs pieceisthathehasalimitedgraspon internationalrelations,literallyequatingitwithahighschoolpopularitycontestinhisopening paragraph.Furtheroninthepiece,asomewhatdizzyingconstructionmasksafewdecentideas,such astheemphasisonalternativeenergysourcesstrangelyplacedinthefirstparagraphofasection aboutusingoverwhelmingmilitaryforceonthebattlefield. Basedonthecampaignsofar,itishardtoenvisionaHuckabeepresidencydominatedbyhisvirtually non-existentforeignpolicystrategy.Intheextremelyunlikelyeventthathewinsthenomination,a betterpredictivetoolwouldbetoobservetheteamofforeignpolicyexpertsthathebroughtontohis campaignandintohisadministration.

Conclusion TheUnitedStateshascometoaforkintheroad.InNovember2008,theAmericanpeoplewillchoose fromtwodivergentvisionsofforeignpolicy.Nootherelectiondatingbackintothelastcenturyhas presentedsuchaclearchoice.The2000electionsetinmotionamajorstrategicshiftinAmerican foreignpolicy,butthatelectionwascertainlynotdecidedonit,andalthoughhindsightallowsusto seethatthesignswerethere,foreignpolicywasnotamajoraspectofthe2000campaign.Thefirst post-ColdWarelectionin1992wasnotaboutforeignpolicyeither,andnoelectionduringtheCold Warofferedsuchastarklydifferentchoice. Thisyear,theRepublicancandidates,withthenotableexceptionofJohnMcCain,wouldleadtheUS downasimilarpathtothatofthecurrentadministration.AnewRepublicanpresidentwould,by instinct,emphasisethemilitaryastheprimaryengineofAmericansecurity,wouldworkwithallieson

7.ThemajorproponentsofsignificantreductionsinUSnuclearweaponsareHenryKissinger,former SecretaryofStateGeorgeSchultz,formerSecretaryofDefenseBillPerry,andformerSenatorSamNunn.

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anadhocbasiswhiledevaluingformalalliancesandinstitutions,andwouldfocusonterrorismand militarythreatswhilesideliningsomeoftherapidlydevelopingchallengeslikelytodominatethe securitylandscapeinthecomingdecades.OnlyJohnMcCainwouldbroadenthescopeofRepublican foreignpolicyprioritiestoincludemajoremergingissueslikeclimatechangeandapowershifttowards Asia.ButevenMcCainbelievesinthecentralroleoftheUSmilitaryinAmericanforeignandsecurity policyandhisapproachtointernationalaffairswouldnotdeviatefromtheotherRepublican candidatesinthatcriticalarea. Ontheotherpath,theDemocraticcandidateswouldsteeraverydifferentcourse.AnewDemocratic presidentwouldseektorestoretheUS’spositionattheheartofathrivingsystemofinternational alliances,wouldinvesteffortandpoliticalcapitalacrossabroadersetofexistingandemergingthreats andwouldemphasisealltheinstrumentsofnationalpower,notjustthemilitary,toachievecommon objectives. Giventhestarknatureofthechoice,itislikelythatAmerica’sroleintheworld,andEuropean perceptionsofit,maybeshapedforagenerationbytheoutcomeofthisyear’scampaign.

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