WE, THE YOUTH Tart summaryJus It t
YOUTH FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Effects, Consequences and Mitigation
2009
"In every deliberation, we must consider the impact on the seventh generation... even if it requires having skin as thick as the bark of a pine"‐Great Law of the Iroquois
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INDEX TOPIC
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Introduction
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History of the problem
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Changes and effects
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A case study: India
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India centric effects
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Mitigation
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Conclusion
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Exhibit 1
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References
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Introduction Climate Change: “Change in the state of climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or by the variability in its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity”. (Source IPCC climate change 2007: synthesis report) We, the fortunate ones have a life of luxury – a car for our travels, air‐conditioning for the heat and cold, television for entertainment, cosmetics to look good and many such things. How many of us realize that our fortitude is a bane for the environment and for the less privileged amongst us? Such small activities that might look harmless to the user are, in fact, adding on to degrade the world around us. Many of us have heard of changes in the weather patterns, natural disasters‐ hurricanes, cyclones‐that have killed many. It wouldn’t be completely wrong to say our earth is undergoing a state of such rapid climatic change over such short span of time that it hasn’t seen in years. One could argue, by saying that the earth has been through various climatic changes for ages and that’s how the ages like the ice, platonic etc occurred. What is pertinent here is the span of time encompassed by them. One occurred naturally and over millions of years whereas the other over a very short period in time. In the following sections, the true nature of the present climatic change will be discussed. The catastrophic outcomes, ways to overcome them will be detailed in addition to a brief historical perspective.
History The Climate change, as we know today has been observed and noted from the early 1990s.Since then a lot of studies have been conducted in the direction which have helped us to know the changes, causes, effects and consequences of the climate change. We have a lot of direct and indirect evidences documented that point in this direction. For instance, the change in the mean temperature of the earth has been confirmed from studies on the annual rings of tree trunks. The rings which are a pointer to the growth of the trees suggest higher temperatures and increased 4
moisture levels. For example, researchers studying trees in Mongolia have found unusually high growth rates during the last century indicating that temperatures were higher in this period. There are two reasons that contribute to the change in the climate. One being the natural changes that include volcanic eruptions change in orbital inclination of the earth, energy received from the sun and other such causes. The second is the anthropogenic or the man‐made causes which comprise mainly of the emission of green house gases (GHG) methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide are emitted particularly by burning the fossil fuels whereas methane and nitrous dioxide are mainly through agriculture.1 It is naturally not in our hands to undo or stop the natural variables that affect the climate. But, what we can do to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic agents is quiet varied. In order for policy makers, experts and students to understand scientifically and theoretically the changes happening around us the Intergovernmental Panel For Climate Change (IPCC) was established under the aegis of the world meteorological organization (WMO) and united nations environment programme (UNEP).It was established in view to make people aware of the scientific reasons and observations pertaining to the climatic changes. To take a step further, let us analyze the changes that have occurred in the past few decades and their causes. This would in turn help us in devising ways and means to mitigate their effects.
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IPCC (2007). “Fourth Assessment Report. Working group I report.” p2, “Summary for Policy Makers”.
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The Changes and its Effects The effects of a climate change can be seen on a small (primary, regional) level and on a larger (long range) scale. Let us see the long range changes that have been observed and recorded. Table 1. Changes due to excess GHG and their effects Climatic Changes •
Increasing temperatures in the Himalayas
Consequences • Increasing ground instability in
and its surroundings since the 1970s and other major mountain ranges and
permafrost regions. • Increasing rock avalanches in mountain
(decreasing) snow‐covered peaks • Melting glaciers and polar ice caps
regions.
•
Alarmingly more number of larger glacial lakes.
•
Run‐offs and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier and snow‐fed rivers.
•
Rise in the sea water levels at various places, are resulting in cities below the sea levels, being submerged - a sure possible scenario
• •
The ocean temperatures have risen and still are rising, as they have been absorbing close to 80 percent of heat, added to the global climatic system.
This temperature rise is affecting the frequency and intensity of phenomenon like El‐Niño affects, causing hurricanes.
•
The salinity of the sea water and the oxygen content/level are being affected.
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•
There has been an increase of 0.74 °C in the
•
Rainfall and snowfall pattern have changed on the global scale and have been bordering on an extreme, more often than not.
•
Changes in ecosystems/biological species
global temperature in the last 100 years. This is more than 0.6°C from the third assessment report. Since 1850, eleven of the twelve warmest periods on earth have
algae, plankton, fish and zooplankton.
been between 1995‐2006. •
The percentage of greenhouse gases has
•
increased drastically over the last few
Besides being the major cause for all the above changes.
years. Their recorded percentage has been higher than their percentages in the last
•
650,000 years. (Refer table 2)
Ocean has become more acidic, on account of it having absorbed the man‐made and manufactured carbon dioxide. Ocean pH has dropped by 0.1
Table 2.GHG and their amount in the atmosphere GHG
Amount in 2005
Amount in the past 65,000 years
Carbon dioxide
379 ppm
180‐300 ppm
Methane
1774 ppb
320‐790 ppb
Nitrous oxide
319 ppb
270 ppb
ppm‐ parts per million ppb‐parts per billion (Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) Data shown in Table 1 and 2 have had an overall negative effect on employment, health, social security, economic development and other parameters of human development dependent on geography. In the next section a specific region is used as a case study. India is chosen as the region
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A case study: INDIA INDIA, a developing country is a vast country in many aspects and areas. It occupies an area of 3,287,240 km2 (seventh largest nation) with a coastal line of 7.517 km, has 17% of the world’s population (second most populous). Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing account for 16.6% of the GDP in 2007, employed 60% of the total workforce. Industry accounts for 27.6% of the GDP and employ 17% of the total workforce. With an average annual GDP (gross development product) growth rate of 5.8% for the past two decades, the economy is one of the most stable and the fastest growing in the world. It has some of the world's most bio‐diversity based regions. It has a range of ecozones as in desert, high mountains, highlands, tropical and temperate forests, swamplands, plains, grasslands, reverie areas as well as island archipelago. It hosts three biodiversity hotspots: the Western Ghats, the Eastern Himalayas, and the hilly ranges that straddle the India‐Myanmar border. These hotspots have numerous endemic species. India's 3,166,414 square km shows a notable diversity of habitats, with significant variations in rainfall, altitude, topography, and latitude. The region is also heavily influenced by summer monsoons that cause major seasonal changes in vegetation and habitat. Many of these species are in danger. It has more than 500 wildlife sanctuaries and 13 biosphere reserves. It has a forest area of 23 percent.75.5 million hectares of wasteland that can be brought under cultivation with external efforts. It also has the Sunderbans, which are the largest single block of tidal halophytic mangrove forest in the world. There are 24 rivers in INDIA. Many of these rivers are snow‐fed vis‐à‐vis the Ganges from the Himalayas. These rivers are impetuses to a large number of dams, embankments etc., which again provide, amongst others, employment too. The water from these rivers or outlets, are used for variety of other activities, including power generation, irrigation, cultivation etc. Most of India’s power comes from coal with significant contributions from the solar and the wind energy sectors. The emission of GHG on a global scale from India is 4.9%. Besides, energy
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conservation has emerged as a major policy objective as a result of which, the Energy Conservation Act 2001, was passed by the Indian Parliament in September 2001. India has various government and non government organizations trying to make a difference to the climate and mitigate the effects of the not so positive but rapid changes, . However, we have not been able to tap the optimum potential of alternative sources of energy on account of poverty, illiteracy and rising population. This is causing disparities across various cross sections of the society, including its various regions and communities. This has avoidably added to the stress on the economy of our country.
Effects of climate change on India: The present and future As seen already the three main categories of impacts include •
Rise in sea level
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Impact on agriculture and related resources
•
Occurence of extreme events.
According to the IPCC, the sea level in India is expected to rise at the rate of 2.4 mm per year. A quick calculation tells us how that by 2050 the rise will be almost 38 cms.This would inundate low lying areas, drown coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches, increase salinity of bays, rivers and groundwater. I conducted an online survey and a sample of 250 people from diverse backgrounds – students, professors, common man, was considered (see Exhibit 1). This sample was asked to answer basic questions on climate change to judge their awareness levels. Of the 250 who were asked about the most obvious change that had occurred around them concerning climate,220 replied that the summers were getting hot and the winters spanned for shorter time and also that the monsoons were erratic.
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Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe droughts in some areas and intense flooding in other parts of India. And the pattern would not be consistent. Besides, the areas experiencing intense flooding in one season, could experience draught, the next season., as has been the case in Rajasthan !! Scientists predict that by the end of this century the country will experience a 3 to 5 degree Centigrade temperature increase, in addition to experiencing a 20% rise during summer monsoon. As an example, the year 2005‐2006 saw excessive rainfalls in Mumbai. The rainfall recorded was 3214 mm in 2005‐2006 which is a 50 percent increase from the earlier monsoon seasons. Mumbai (which is group of islands interconnected by bridges) was and still is, an island, with quite an amount of reclaimed land in almost all zones (i.e. Southern, Northern, Eastern and Western coastal areas). Citing another classic example of the negative effects of a climatic change… a category 5 cyclone, as in, Cyclone 05B struck Orissa in 1999 displacing around 20 million people. A similar cyclone struck Andhra Pradesh, in 1996, causing wide spread damage and destruction to property and life.. In the east with the bordering country Bangladesh which has 46.4% of its population in the low‐ lying areas. If a flooding of higher magnitude than that has already occurred (bhola cyclone in 1970, 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, cyclone sidr in 2007) in the Ganges delta, there will be a large influx of displaced people/refugees from the country inwards to India to the already densely populated state of West Bengal. This would in turn out to be a security issue, apart from leading to loss of lives, economic downturns, social and structural instability in addition to causing further problems of rehabilitation and rebuilding of the affected area and people. 10
High flooding
Decrease in agricultural yield
Increased morbidity and mortality
More than a Billion people and varied ecosystems affected by 2050
Reduced water availability
Another area of concern on account of adverse climatic changes are the quantity and quality of the crops, the livestock productivity, affected by floods, droughts and abnormal rise in mercury.This has resulted in huge losses to the concerned identified growth sectors. To cite a not so pleasant example, in the recent past, the erratic monsoons, have also lead to the suicide by farmers in the district of vidarbha in Maharashtra. Another area of major concern is Health, which this country has to tackle. With the growing population, inadequate rural health centres, absence of dedicated para medical staff apart from the inadequate sewage system, the percentage of people living below poverty line, have either little or no means of getting proper health care facility, available to them. And, in the case of areas which get flooded impact translates into the populace being affected by diseases like diarrhea, malaria, leptosiclosis, to name a few. Getting added to the list of misery, are the unpleasant effects of hot temperature, post floods, hitting the workforce heavily due to heat stress, cramps, exhaustion and stroke. With possible in‐adequate or lack of proper food, the populace would be devoid of required energy in their bodies / sturdy immune systems, to fight deceases. And yes, 11
this would also mean, chances of their contracting diseases viz., , respiratory problems and skin diseases due to UV radiations, would be high. Faunas and floras find it difficult to adapt to the rapid change. From studies conducted by the central marine research institute (CMFRI) it is found that as many as 19 algae blooms have been found in Indian waters in 1998‐2006, which are quite toxic. This has caused mass mortality in fishes like the old saradines. In Orissa (satyabhaya beach under gahir matha sanctuary) hundreds of olive ridley sea turtles were found dead. The changing weather and climatic patterns affect the migration patterns of certain species of birds and animals. Their fertility too is affected thus causing a decrease in their population. This ultimately, would lead to the extinction of migratory birds !! The foregoing was the statistics and the repercussions of the adverse climatic changes, on the humans and the animal live stock. Another sector which would get impacted directly, due to the foregoing, would be the tourism industry !! Detailing further, the tourism industry which contributes heavily to the GDP of the nation is already undergoing a setback, due to the world recession. And if such a negative trend continues, there would be a loss of 1,963,500 crores of rupees by 2050. We might wonder as to how tourism would be impacted by the climatic changes, across the globe !! Well, to put it simply, the melting of snow has hampered winter/snow tourism in many places like the Himalayas coupled with the increasing probability of avalanches (rock or otherwise). The natural disasters are affecting the infrastructure, cultural heritage both tangible and intangible. E.g. the taj mahal is losing its sheen due to the acid rain that is caused due to excessive amount of sulphur and carbon oxides in the atmosphere. The damage to infrastructure like roads, railways due to landslides will also hamper mobility of goods, raw materials, people etc. thus affecting production and growth. This has increased the level of run offs in high tropical areas and has decreased in the low tropical regions.
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“There is no doubt that young people today are more aware of Environmental problems than my generation ever was. As this new Generation comes of age; it faces the enormous challenge of solving Global warming. … In order to fix this crisis, everyone needs to be Involved. I have faith that young people have both the ability and The enthusiasm to put a stop to global warming.” Al Gore, Former U.S. VicePresident, Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize
“If you want to see a change, be the change” M.K.Gandhi Father of our Nation (India) 13
CLIMATE CHANGES
(Earth systems)
Climate process drivers
Impacts and vulnerabi lity
HUMAN SYSTEMS
Social economic perspective and
Development
MITIGATION ADAPTION
Table 2 (SOURCE: IPCC climate change 2007: synthesis report)
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Mitigation Mitigation is the reduction of the GHG gases produced anthropogenically. The task ahead of us is not only to reduce the present release of GHG’s but also stabilize the effect of gases that have been accumulated through years. According to the stern review, it is seen that GHG emissions are directly proportional to the GDP of the nation under consideration.Since, India being a developing nation its GHG emission is extremely low compared to the developed countries. It is impossible to nullify the effects of GHG gases or to reduce their release in the atmosphere to zero but what can be done is reduce it to a safe level, wherever possible. A level of sustenance has to be reached. The development of a countries economy is based on the development of its industries. And this is directly proportional to the availability of generous amount of fossil fuels, coal burnt to produce energy. Thus GHG emission and GDP have a linear co relation. According to the Kaya identity;
C =(C/E) * (E/Y) * (Y/N) * N
C‐Carbon emissions E‐Energy use Y‐Gross domestic Product N‐Population (C/E=Carbon Intensity of Energy Systems) (E/Y=Energy Intensity of Density) (Y/N=GDP Per Capita)
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It is seen that population decrease or GDP decrease is not technically possible for a country as vast and developing as India. Thus the only option is decreasing of carbon intensity and energy density of GDP to compensate for the increase in GDP and population. It would be considered wise to check the rate of growth of carbon emission. India would have to first decrease the rate to zero such that the emission remains constant then decrease it further so that carbon emission decreases. It would be pertinent here to note that it is not enough that India checks her carbon emission but the developed nations whose emissions are much higher than the developing countries should attach greater value to the need to reduce it. Otherwise, the burden of carbon emission now will affect the future generations, across the world. This would only cause India’s poverty scenario to worsen because of the add‐on effect due to the emissions of other countries. Also, while some of the energy savings are due to conscious utilization of resources the negative side has to do with human drudgery. These include compulsory energy savings” by the poor due to deprivation. If India is committed to human development, poverty eradication should take place. This may result in an increased energy use. This may be considered a due right of the poor, even if it increases India’s GHG emissions. So this increase should not be accounted for in the inclusion of unnecessary GHG emission Regardless of the choices we make to mitigate climate change, some warming will still occur and we will have to find ways to adapt to the adverse effects it imposes. It is estimated by the UNFCCC that “tens of billions of dollars” of additional investment and financial flows would be required for adaptation by 2030, with some researchers placing the figure as high as US$50‐170 billion. The action plan is to, draw up adaptation strategy and roadmap and practices specifically focused on desertification, alpine environments, and protected areas need to be improved. The mitigation can take place in three stages; the primary, secondary and tertiary stages. The primary stage is of the highest importance and consists of Government policies, laws; inter governmental co‐operation, international climate organizations and the other governing bodies. This will have a long term benefit which may or may not be found as soon as they are implemented. 16
The secondary stage consists of the influential public figures, mass media and other NGOs and fractions like the policy framers and the heads of various industries. A fantastic example here would be the noble peace prize winner Al Gore. In, India a public figure respected by everyone like DR.A.P.J.Abdul Kalam could be included into mass campaigns. The tertiary stage is the change which has to be brought about by the individuals of the societies. One must not consider it as “just” an individual contribution. When millions around the country and the world make even a small change to their lifestyle, it adds up to a lot in the long run. One must not forget, the earth is our home and our only home.
Economic reforms, subsidy removal and joint venture in capital goods
Forestation and development of wastelands
Government policies
Promotion of renewable energy sources (befouls like atrophy) Emphasis on energy conservation
Abatement of air pollution
Fuel substitution policies
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As youth of the country, we are the freshest and the most active of the minds inhabiting the nation. As of 2001 the youth population formed 42 percentage of the population. We are strong quantitatively but we must become qualitatively smart and effective towards our home‐the earth. Though, the required dynamism is there in the form of young energetic minds, ever ready to go for the action, the experience of elders and the seasoned players would help us getting to the ultimate goal!!
The 3 R’s Theory: Let us begin with the three R’s of personal mitigation of climate change: Realize, React and Reach. This must be the three‐point agenda that must become the dictum of every youth in the country and around the world. Realize One must realize the changes that are happening around us and reflect on why these changes occur. Reading and analyzing reports by various government/non‐government organizations is the key here. Once we realize the level of changes that are occurring around us and their long and short term effects it would inspire us into making our home a better place for us, our future and for people around us. React Once the analysis is done, it is time to get into action on a personal level first and then subsequently convert these into mass movement with the desired effect. There is no such thing as a free lunch. We won’t get a change if we don’t make a change or ask for it. And this is a collective action problem. The best way to tackle this is by introducing a policy change i.e. influencing policies of the government. But before that one of the most difficult things that have to be done, is to spread awareness amongst the populace. Once we make people aware of the problems, effects and inspire them, collectively we can do a lot of good. 18
Reach Youth – For a youth movement of this magnitude, it is time for the youth to get going and make the opening statement. A group of individuals can get together to reach out and make banners, short movies, hold peaceful protests and publicize the issue on a national scale. They will help you connect and go public. Formal and informal events can be conducted across the city by youths. A day a month could be dedicated as the toxic waste (electrical, chemical etc) that could be dumped by an individual to the youth centers which will then be handed to the government for safe disposal. A marathon like a “running for a change” could be introduced where the need for change and for promotion of going green should be promoted. Promotion of ideas like Usage of public transport, walking or cycling, flying infrequently or only when required. Eat less meat, use (livestock gives 18% of GHG emissions), organic food. Media ‐ The media is one of the main tools for mass communication as its reach is far‐flung. A public figure that connects to people could be used as the face of the campaign. Alternatively, a mascot or an influential cartoon‐guy could preach the messages of saving our climate like Popeye did to influence us as kids into eating spinach!! (an example is given below)
Calvin and Hobbes (Cartoon strip) by Bill Watterson
Lobbying and challenging the government to act in a particular manner and inspiring policy changes pertaining to nature is a very effective way. Initiate peaceful marches across the country on a single day forming a network that would force the government to make changes. This also includes Engaging with policy makers and in the decision making 19
process. A request to include a youth into major government policy forming team so as to connect to what the society at large wants is a fantastic way to get going. Selecting a project idea like planting of a 100 samples on a day ,maintaining and caring for them, conducting awareness classes in schools, universities (catch them young!!), implement it and celebrate its success. On a personal level, one of the strongest ways of informing fellow youths and making a change through innovation in technologies and making a difference was by keeping the theme of our college yearly festivals/techfests to be climate change. It made an extreme difference as new innovative low‐cost methods were installed in the college and nearby facilities. Conducting concerts from high‐profile bands, performers in promoting the message like the live 8 concert. Message through music through people we grow up idolizing is a psychologically very effective way to make a difference. As a team we must be motivated by each other, given equal rights and opportunities, should be open to changes, be brave to accept criticisms and work on the shortcomings, understanding of goals, transparent system of operation, be creative, have the ability to wipe out the problem by making an impact on the emotional side of the people rather than the technical aspect alone, keen sense of love for nature and humanity and a sense of responsibility. Keep a timeline for your projects and ideally get an elder experienced mentor who would help you in the technical aspects and would externally monitor your progress. Monitor and evaluate your personal and groups progress. It is not just a onetime effort, make sure the changes you have made continues and has the desired effect. Else, it is of not much use, in driving projects, without the required support. Networking forms another major part. It includes getting together with like‐minded people to become a larger more powerful medium. Coalitions with other similar organizations are extremely helpful. Forming a nationwide grid where ideas, plans are discussed and implemented and which would get you support from a wide variety of people will be useful to spread your message. This
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would help you in overcoming any difficulties that might have cropped up at any juncture in your fight for the earth. Since India is a land of varied languages and regional difference, the group must essentially consist of people from different economic, social backgrounds. We must transcend all differences and work as one to save the world around us.
Charity Begins at Home As they say, a good start is half the work done. Do you know that every person in this world has a carbon footprint on the face of the earth? And do you know that more than 50% of that footprint is either because of carelessness or due to lack of awareness? Presented below is a checklist which every common man can follow at home to reduce his carbon footprint by more than 50% • Unplug your mobile phone as soon as it is charged. We all have a tendency to leave our phones on charge for a considerable period of time and that is silently killing Mother Earth • Defrost your refrigerator regularly. According to a study, refrigerators’ contribution to household carbon emission is one of the highest • Always use the washing machine in full load • Use power saving lamps wherever possible (http://www.carbonfootprint.com) Efforts are already on in other countries to make people aware of carbon emissions and their effect on climate change. In fact, the following website http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx allows every person to calculate the damage he/she is causing every day and provides ways to neutralize it. Conclusion 21
The consequences of our ignorance at first and then the inertia to change has brought us to a pedestal where climate changes can no more be denied as a myth. It is there and we are seeing and feeling the repercussions, day in and day out. Now, instead of playing the blame games and also instead of basking in the glory of short‐term comforts in lieu of long‐term safety we must act right now. We must act just like how we would if our own homes were on fire. Get inspired and inspire others to follow the path of sustainable development. Now is the chance, and the only change, to rebuild our homes so that what we leave behind is something our future generations will be proud of.
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Exhibit 1: QUESTIONNAIRE: 1) What according to you is climate change? 2) What do you think are the causes of climate change? 3) Which medium has been most useful in making you aware of the above? Print media Electronic media Friends/family/people in general Educational syllabus Others (please specify) 4) Have you seen/felt/been affected by the effects of climate change. If yes, please elaborate. 5) Have you seen a change in the environment in general around yo?If yes, please elaborate. 6) Given a chance what would you do for the environment at large? 7) On a personal level have you done anything in this direction? 8) Do you know what green economy is? 23
9) Do you care about the various environmental organizations? Are you aware of the change they bring about to the world? 10) Which mass campaign, according to you, has been the most successful in the last decade? (the campaign need not necessarily be an environmental one)
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References: o
www.wikipedia.org
2) http://www.docm.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/english.html 3) http://www.whyfiles.org/080global_warm/4.html" 4) http://envfor.nic.in 5) IPCC fourth assessment report (2007) , IPCC climate change 2007 (synthesis report) 6) Climate change: youth guide to action (www.climate.takingitglobal.org) 7) India’s GHG emission scenarios (P.R.shukla) 8) Current science 9) OECD Climate change: India’s perceptions, positions, policies and possibilities (jyoti.j and kirith Parikh) 10) climate change and national security (Joshua.w.busby) 11) Economic impact of climate change on Mumbai (rakesh kumar, parag jawale and shalini tandon) 11) Greenpeace.org
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