Xac Suat
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Y A B C
Xs xay ra x trong dieu kien X SmallAverage Important P(XПY) SmallAverage Important P(X/Y) Small 900 163 622 115 1 0.18 0.69 0.13 3 0.51 270 27 189 54 A 0.3 0.03 0.21 0.06 A 1 0.1 180 33 124 23 B 0.2 0.04 0.14 0.03 B 1 0.18 450 103 309 38 C 0.5 0.11 0.34 0.04 C 1 0.23
ra x trong dieu kien y Average Important 2.08 0.41 0.7 0.2 0.69 0.13 0.69 0.08
Xs Y xay ra trong dieu kien X P(Y/X) SmallAverage Important 3 1 1 1 A 0.94 0.17 0.3 0.47 B 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 C 1.46 0.63 0.5 0.33
Defaulting 0.4 Non-Defaulting 0.6 Công thức
Credit High Medium Low 0.79 0.38 0.83 Defaulting 1 0.04 0.15 0.81 Non defautling 1 0.75 0.23 0.02
Xs X/Y X
High Medium Low Y 0.79 0.38 0.83 Defaulting 1 0.04 0.15 0.81 Non defautling 1 0.75 0.23 0.02 Xs Y/X
XsY/X X
High Medium Low Y 1 1 1 Defaulting 1.42 0.05 0.39 0.98 Non defautling 1.58 0.95 0.61 0.02
Y Defaulting Non defautling
X
High Medium Low 0.68 0.77 0.99 1.3 0.03 0.3 0.96 1.13 0.64 0.46 0.02
P(X/Y) X Y 0 1 2 3 4
100 23 36 25 13 3
22 15 2 6 4 2 1
30 25 5 10 8 1 1
38 30 10 15 4 1 0
46 20 5 3 5 7 0
54 10 1 2 4 2 1
X Y
5 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4
22 0.9 0.09 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.33 0.15
30 1.23 0.22 0.28 0.32 0.08 0.33 0.25
38 1.09 0.43 0.42 0.16 0.08 0 0.3
P(Y/X) X Y 0 1 2 3 4
5 1.02 1.65 1.37 0.76 0.21
P(XПY) X Y 1 0 0.23 1 0.36 2 0.25 3 0.13 4 0.03
22 30 38 1 1 1 0.13 0.2 0.33 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.27 0.32 0.13 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.04 0
22 0.15 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01
30 38 0.25 0.3 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0
Mx 46 1.04 0.22 0.08 0.2 0.54 0 0.2
54 0.75 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.15 0.33 0.1
X Y ### 0 22 1 ### 2 5.2 3 ### 4 ### Mx 36.8
22 ### 1.91 3.67 3.52 3.38 7.33 3.3
30 38 46 ### ### ### 4.78 9.57 4.78 8.33 15.83 3.83 0.64 0.32 0.4 2.31 2.92 24.77 10 0 0 7.5 11.4 9.2
54 ### 0.96 3 0.32 8.31 18 5.4
My 46 1 0.25 0.15 0.25 0.35 0
54 1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
46 0.2 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.07 0
54 0.1 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.01
Y 0.23 0.36 0.25 0.13 0.03
бy^2 X 22 30 38 46 7.49 1.6 1.32 0.87 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1.65 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.15 2 2.74 0.53 0.64 0.27 0.5 3 2.27 0.4 0.12 0.1 1.05 4 0.83 0.27 0.16 0 0
54 My 2 1.37 0 0 0.2 0.36 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.39 0.4 0.12
X Y 0 1 2 3 4
5.3 2.06 0.47 0.38 1.32 1.07
бy 22 1.17 0.34 0.14 0.04 0.26 0.38
30 0.94 0.35 0.04 0.15 0.11 0.29
38 0.58 0.25 0.01 0.17 0.15 0
46 1.41 0.72 0.07 0.02 0.59 0
54 бy^2 1.2 1.13 0.4 0.43 0.2 0.05 0 0.1 0.2 0.35 0.4 0.21
X Y 0 1 2 3 4
2.3 1.44 0.68 0.62 1.15 1.04
22 1.08 0.58 0.38 0.21 0.51 0.62
30 0.97 0.59 0.2 0.38 0.34 0.54
38 0.76 0.5 0.09 0.41 0.39 0
46 1.19 0.85 0.27 0.15 0.77 0
54 1.1 0.63 0.45 0 0.45 0.63
бy 1.06 0.66 0.22 0.32 0.59 0.46
i X Y X^2 Y^2 XY X-Mx Y-My sum -0.2 -0.05 0.29 0.03 -0.04 0 0 E=average -0.04 -0.01 0.06 0.01 -0.01 0 0 1 0.1 -0.1 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.14 -0.09 2 -0.5 0.05 0.25 0 -0.03 -0.46 0.06 3 0.15 0 0.02 0 0 0.19 0.01 4 0.05 -0.1 0 0.01 -0.01 0.09 -0.09 5 0 0.1 0 0.01 0 0.04 0.11
V(x)=E(x2)-E(x)2 V(y)=E(y2)-E(y)2 Cov(x,y)=E(xy)-E(x)E(y) a=cov(x,y)/Vx b=E(y)-a(E(x) 0.06
0.01
-0.01
-0.15
-0.02
P(x/y) x y 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5
100 26 18 14 17 11 14
M(vny) x y 1 2.5 0.26 7.5 0.18 12.5 0.14 17.5 0.17 22.5 0.11 27.5 0.14
5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3
15 28 0 0 1 5 11 11
25 23 0 1 10 12 0 0
35 30 12 15 3 0 0 0
45 15 13 2 0 0 0 0
55 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
x y 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5
6 1 1 1 1 1 1
5 0.21 0 0 0 0 0 0.21
15 2.15 0 0 0.07 0.29 1 0.79
25 1.48 0 0.06 0.71 0.71 0 0
M(x/y) 5 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 0.03
15 25 35 45 55 0.28 0.23 0.3 0.15 0.01 0 0 0.12 0.13 0.01 0 0.01 0.15 0.02 0 0.01 0.1 0.03 0 0 0.05 0.12 0 0 0 0.11 0 0 0 0 0.11 0 0 0 0
xy*P
x 5 15 25 y 27.9 0.15 4.2 5.75 2.5 ### 0 0 0 7.5 ### 0 0 1.39 12.5 ### 0 1.07 17.86 17.5 ### 0 4.41 17.65 22.5 15 0 15 0 27.5 ### 1.07 11.79 0 6(x/y)
x 5 15 25 y ### 29.46 ### ### 2.5 ### 0 0 0 7.5 ### 0 0 10.42 12.5 ### 0 13.39 ### 17.5 ### 0 77.21 ### 22.5 337.5 0 337.5 0 27.5 ### 29.46 ### 0
Cov -91.1 Coefficient -0.91 a -1.18 b 43.35
35 45 55 ### 93.75 5.29 40.38 56.25 5.29 ### 37.5 0 93.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
x 5 15 25 y ### 2.5 32.1 0 0 0 7.5 ### 0 0 6.19 12.5 ### 0 9.33 1.46 17.5 ### 0 14.65 6.11 22.5 0 0 0 0 27.5 ### 13.23 3.61 0
y
6r^2 6e^2 Var ### ### ### 2.5 8.35 43.06 51.41 7.5 2.94 10.55 13.49 12.5 3.71 0.3 4.02 17.5 3.53 5.8 9.33 22.5 0 18.31 18.31 27.5 2.36 31.68 34.04
6 ### 7.17 3.67 2 3.05 4.28 5.83
P(y/x) 35 45 55 1.51 0.61 0.04 0.46 0.5 0.04 0.83 0.11 0 0.21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
x
35 45 1 1 0.4 0.87 0.5 0.13 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
55 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
x 5 15 25 35 45 y ### 27.5 ### ### 6 3.17 2.5 0.65 0 0 0 1 2.17 7.5 1.35 0 0 0.33 3.75 1 12.5 1.75 0 0.45 5.43 1.25 0 17.5 2.98 0 3.13 9.13 0 0 22.5 2.48 0 8.84 0 0 0 27.5 3.85 27.5 10.8 0 0 0
55 2.5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0
y 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5
6 2.27 0.68 0.57 0.7 0.39 1.39
5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
15 25 1 1 0 0 0 0.04 0.04 0.43 0.18 0.52 0.39 0 0.39 0
M(y/x) 35 45 55 10.5 6.75 0.55 16.15 22.5 2.12 29.17 5 0 7.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6(x/y) 35
45
55
15.36 8.95 7.79 0.26 9.91 0 15.74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ng(x/y)^2 0.84
x y 38.9 2.5 5.29 7.5 6 12.5 10.81 17.5 9.38 22.5 0.2 27.5 7.22
5 15 25 35 45 0 ### 8.41 ### 2.89 0 0 0 4.9 0.39 0 0 2.38 1.13 2.5 0 4.1 2.49 4.23 0 0 5.83 3.55 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.22 0 0 0
x 5 15 25 6r^2 10.3 0 4.86 1.93 6e^2 ### 6.26 28.93 0.78 Var ### 6.26 33.78 2.71 6 8.77 2.5 5.81 1.65 ng(y/x)^2 0.87
35 3.08 14.91 17.99 4.24
55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
45 55 0.43 0 14.65 1.11 15.09 1.11 3.88 1.06
Sum S 40000 40000 Cost of placement -600 -600 Term 3 3 Rate of interest annual 1% 1% P hoàn vốn= P tại đó Gp=-Co+prs+t(1-t)rs=0 0.75 0.75 P1 0 0 GP1 600 600
Xs xay ra x trong dieu kien X SmallAverage Important P(XПY) SmallAverage Important P(X/Y) Small 900 163 622 115 1 0.18 0.69 0.13 3 0.51 270 27 189 54 A 0.3 0.03 0.21 0.06 A 1 0.1 180 33 124 23 B 0.2 0.04 0.14 0.03 B 1 0.18 450 103 309 38 C 0.5 0.11 0.34 0.04 C 1 0.23
ra x trong dieu kien y Average Important 2.08 0.41 0.7 0.2 0.69 0.13 0.69 0.08
Xs Y xay ra trong dieu kien X P(Y/X) SmallAverage Important 3 1 1 1 A 0.94 0.17 0.3 0.47 B 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 C 1.46 0.63 0.5 0.33
Defaulting 0.4 Non-Defaulting 0.6 Công thức
Credit High Medium Low 0.79 0.38 0.83 Defaulting 1 0.04 0.15 0.81 Non defautling 1 0.75 0.23 0.02
Xs X/Y X
High Medium Low Y 0.79 0.38 0.83 Defaulting 1 0.04 0.15 0.81 Non defautling 1 0.75 0.23 0.02 Xs Y/X
XsY/X X
High Medium Low Y 1 1 1 Defaulting 1.42 0.05 0.39 0.98 Non defautling 1.58 0.95 0.61 0.02
Y Defaulting Non defautling
X
High Medium Low 0.68 0.77 0.99 1.3 0.03 0.3 0.96 1.13 0.64 0.46 0.02
P(X/Y) X Y 0 1 2 3 4
100 23 36 25 13 3
22 15 2 6 4 2 1
30 25 5 10 8 1 1
38 30 10 15 4 1 0
46 20 5 3 5 7 0
54 10 1 2 4 2 1
X Y
5 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4
22 0.9 0.09 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.33 0.15
30 1.23 0.22 0.28 0.32 0.08 0.33 0.25
38 1.09 0.43 0.42 0.16 0.08 0 0.3
P(Y/X) X Y 0 1 2 3 4
5 1.02 1.65 1.37 0.76 0.21
P(XПY) X Y 1 0 0.23 1 0.36 2 0.25 3 0.13 4 0.03
22 30 38 1 1 1 0.13 0.2 0.33 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.27 0.32 0.13 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.04 0
22 0.15 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01
30 38 0.25 0.3 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0
Mx 46 1.04 0.22 0.08 0.2 0.54 0 0.2
54 0.75 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.15 0.33 0.1
X Y ### 0 22 1 ### 2 5.2 3 ### 4 ### Mx 36.8
22 ### 1.91 3.67 3.52 3.38 7.33 3.3
30 38 46 ### ### ### 4.78 9.57 4.78 8.33 15.83 3.83 0.64 0.32 0.4 2.31 2.92 24.77 10 0 0 7.5 11.4 9.2
54 ### 0.96 3 0.32 8.31 18 5.4
My 46 1 0.25 0.15 0.25 0.35 0
54 1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
46 0.2 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.07 0
54 0.1 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.01
Y 0.23 0.36 0.25 0.13 0.03
бy^2 X 22 30 38 46 7.49 1.6 1.32 0.87 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1.65 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.15 2 2.74 0.53 0.64 0.27 0.5 3 2.27 0.4 0.12 0.1 1.05 4 0.83 0.27 0.16 0 0
54 My 2 1.37 0 0 0.2 0.36 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.39 0.4 0.12
X Y 0 1 2 3 4
5.3 2.06 0.47 0.38 1.32 1.07
бy 22 1.17 0.34 0.14 0.04 0.26 0.38
30 0.94 0.35 0.04 0.15 0.11 0.29
38 0.58 0.25 0.01 0.17 0.15 0
46 1.41 0.72 0.07 0.02 0.59 0
54 бy^2 1.2 1.13 0.4 0.43 0.2 0.05 0 0.1 0.2 0.35 0.4 0.21
X Y 0 1 2 3 4
2.3 1.44 0.68 0.62 1.15 1.04
22 1.08 0.58 0.38 0.21 0.51 0.62
30 0.97 0.59 0.2 0.38 0.34 0.54
38 0.76 0.5 0.09 0.41 0.39 0
46 1.19 0.85 0.27 0.15 0.77 0
54 1.1 0.63 0.45 0 0.45 0.63
бy 1.06 0.66 0.22 0.32 0.59 0.46
i X Y X^2 Y^2 XY X-Mx Y-My sum -0.2 -0.05 0.29 0.03 -0.04 0 0 E=average -0.04 -0.01 0.06 0.01 -0.01 0 0 1 0.1 -0.1 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.14 -0.09 2 -0.5 0.05 0.25 0 -0.03 -0.46 0.06 3 0.15 0 0.02 0 0 0.19 0.01 4 0.05 -0.1 0 0.01 -0.01 0.09 -0.09 5 0 0.1 0 0.01 0 0.04 0.11
V(x)=E(x2)-E(x)2 V(y)=E(y2)-E(y)2 Cov(x,y)=E(xy)-E(x)E(y) a=cov(x,y)/Vx b=E(y)-a(E(x) 0.06
0.01
-0.01
-0.15
-0.02
P(x/y) x y 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5
100 26 18 14 17 11 14
M(vny) x y 1 2.5 0.26 7.5 0.18 12.5 0.14 17.5 0.17 22.5 0.11 27.5 0.14
5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3
15 28 0 0 1 5 11 11
25 23 0 1 10 12 0 0
35 30 12 15 3 0 0 0
45 15 13 2 0 0 0 0
55 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
x y 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5
6 1 1 1 1 1 1
5 0.21 0 0 0 0 0 0.21
15 2.15 0 0 0.07 0.29 1 0.79
25 1.48 0 0.06 0.71 0.71 0 0
M(x/y) 5 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 0.03
15 25 35 45 55 0.28 0.23 0.3 0.15 0.01 0 0 0.12 0.13 0.01 0 0.01 0.15 0.02 0 0.01 0.1 0.03 0 0 0.05 0.12 0 0 0 0.11 0 0 0 0 0.11 0 0 0 0
xy*P
x 5 15 25 y 27.9 0.15 4.2 5.75 2.5 ### 0 0 0 7.5 ### 0 0 1.39 12.5 ### 0 1.07 17.86 17.5 ### 0 4.41 17.65 22.5 15 0 15 0 27.5 ### 1.07 11.79 0 6(x/y)
x 5 15 25 y ### 29.46 ### ### 2.5 ### 0 0 0 7.5 ### 0 0 10.42 12.5 ### 0 13.39 ### 17.5 ### 0 77.21 ### 22.5 337.5 0 337.5 0 27.5 ### 29.46 ### 0
Cov -91.1 Coefficient -0.91 a -1.18 b 43.35
35 45 55 ### 93.75 5.29 40.38 56.25 5.29 ### 37.5 0 93.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
x 5 15 25 y ### 2.5 32.1 0 0 0 7.5 ### 0 0 6.19 12.5 ### 0 9.33 1.46 17.5 ### 0 14.65 6.11 22.5 0 0 0 0 27.5 ### 13.23 3.61 0
y
6r^2 6e^2 Var ### ### ### 2.5 8.35 43.06 51.41 7.5 2.94 10.55 13.49 12.5 3.71 0.3 4.02 17.5 3.53 5.8 9.33 22.5 0 18.31 18.31 27.5 2.36 31.68 34.04
6 ### 7.17 3.67 2 3.05 4.28 5.83
P(y/x) 35 45 55 1.51 0.61 0.04 0.46 0.5 0.04 0.83 0.11 0 0.21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
x
35 45 1 1 0.4 0.87 0.5 0.13 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
55 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
x 5 15 25 35 45 y ### 27.5 ### ### 6 3.17 2.5 0.65 0 0 0 1 2.17 7.5 1.35 0 0 0.33 3.75 1 12.5 1.75 0 0.45 5.43 1.25 0 17.5 2.98 0 3.13 9.13 0 0 22.5 2.48 0 8.84 0 0 0 27.5 3.85 27.5 10.8 0 0 0
55 2.5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0
y 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5
6 2.27 0.68 0.57 0.7 0.39 1.39
5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
15 25 1 1 0 0 0 0.04 0.04 0.43 0.18 0.52 0.39 0 0.39 0
M(y/x) 35 45 55 10.5 6.75 0.55 16.15 22.5 2.12 29.17 5 0 7.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6(x/y) 35
45
55
15.36 8.95 7.79 0.26 9.91 0 15.74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ng(x/y)^2 0.84
x y 38.9 2.5 5.29 7.5 6 12.5 10.81 17.5 9.38 22.5 0.2 27.5 7.22
5 15 25 35 45 0 ### 8.41 ### 2.89 0 0 0 4.9 0.39 0 0 2.38 1.13 2.5 0 4.1 2.49 4.23 0 0 5.83 3.55 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.22 0 0 0
x 5 15 25 6r^2 10.3 0 4.86 1.93 6e^2 ### 6.26 28.93 0.78 Var ### 6.26 33.78 2.71 6 8.77 2.5 5.81 1.65 ng(y/x)^2 0.87
35 3.08 14.91 17.99 4.24
55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
45 55 0.43 0 14.65 1.11 15.09 1.11 3.88 1.06
Sum S 40000 40000 Cost of placement -600 -600 Term 3 3 Rate of interest annual 1% 1% P hoàn vốn= P tại đó Gp=-Co+prs+t(1-t)rs=0 0.75 0.75 P1 0 0 GP1 600 600
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