What Is Global Warming In General Sense

Group Members Name Name: Roll no. Anuja Desai

3

Komal Gupta Divya Kabra

5 7

Nitin Aashiwal

14

Nasrulla Adamji

15

Kunal Chehria Ankit Jain

20 28

Pratik Kapadia

35

Vikas Vyas

38

Neel Mehta

39

Index Sr. No.

Particulars

Remark s

What is GLOBAL WARMING in general sense? Global warming in general sense means a change in the atmosphere. As the word itself suggests that it is due to large amount of heat produced on the earth surface which causes change in temperature. Now the question to be asked is that is this because of human or due to nature?

GLOBAL WARMING

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Definitions of Global Warming: 1) Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation. 2) According to World Web Dictionary An increase in the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere (especially a sustained increase that causes climatic changes). 3) According to MSN Encarta-Dictionary global warming means increase in the world's temperatures, believed to be caused in part by the greenhouse effect. 4) According to Merriam-Webster an increase in the earth's atmospheric and oceanic temperatures widely predicted to occur due to an increase in the greenhouse effect resulting especially from pollution.

Introduction: Global Warming was thought to be a new hot topic in the science world, and for the most part this is true. The concentrated research on "Global Warming" began after the very hot and dry summer of 1988 in parts of the world

(U.S., Europe, Asia). However scientists and paleoclimatologists have been studying past climates and the climate changes for over 100 years. Global Warming is not only a meteorological issue. Oceanographers are concerned with the increase of the sea surface height and glaciers. Economists are concerned with change in crops and commodities caused by the warming. Environmentalists are concerned how plant and animals habitats may be altered from the warming. Global Warming is also very much political. Treaties are developed to attempt to control the warming, and global efforts are beginning to develop. Global Warming is one of the most controversial scientific issues of the twenty-first century. This is a problem that has serious economic, sociological, geopolitical, political, and personal implications. A warmer Earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. When scientists talk about the issue of climate change, their concern is about global warming caused by human activities. A warmer Earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. When scientists talk about the issue of climate change, their concern is about global warming caused by human activities. Three of the four methods of measuring global temperature show no signs of global warming Proxy measurements (Tree rings, sediments etc) for the past 1000 years. Weather balloons (radio sondes) for the past 44 years.

Satellites (MSU Units) for the past 21 years. The fourth method, surface measurement at weather stations, gives an averaged mean global rise of a mere 0.6°C over 140 years, but is intermittent and irregular. Individual records are highly variable, regional, and sometimes, particularly in remote areas, show no change, or even a fall in temperature. It is concluded that temperature measurements carried out away from human influence show no evidence of global warming.

Globe getting hotter

CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING: The Earth's climate changes in response to external forcing, including variations in its orbit around the Sun (orbital forcing), volcanic eruptions, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The detailed causes of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the scientific consensus is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human activity caused most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era. One hypothesis proposes that warming may be the result of variations in solar activity. None of the effects of forcing are instantaneous. The thermal inertia of the Earth's oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that the Earth's current climate is not in equilibrium with the forcing imposed. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur. A warmer Earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. When scientists talk about the issue of climate change, their concern is about global warming caused by human activities.

1)Greenhouse Effect:

          The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warm a planet's lower and surface. The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature that the Earth experiences because certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy from the sun. Without these gases, heat would escape back into space and Earth’s average temperature would be about 60ºF colder. Because of how they warm our world, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases. A schematic representation of the exchanges of energy between outer space, the Earth's atmosphere, and the Earth surface. The ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy emitted by the Earth surface is the defining characteristic of the greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is important. Without the  greenhouse effect, the Earth would not be warm enough for  humans to live. But if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, it  could make the Earth warmer than usual. Even a little extra  warming may cause problems for humans, plants, and animals.

2) Climate and Weather:

Weather: Weather describes whatever is happening outdoors in a given place at a given time. Weather is what happens from minute to minute. The weather can change a lot within a very short time. For example, it may rain for an hour and then become sunny and clear. Weather is what we hear about on the television news every night. Weather includes daily changes in precipitation, barometric pressure, temperature, and wind conditions in a given location.

Climate : Climate describes the total of all weather occurring over a period  of years in a given place. This includes average weather  conditions, regular weather sequences (like winter, spring,  summer), and special weather events (like tornadoes and floods).  Climate tells us what it's usually like in the place where you live.

3)Carbon Dioxide Power Plants: In 2002 about 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions stem

from the burning of fossil fuels for the purpose of electricity generation. Coal accounts for 93 percent of the emissions from the electric utility industry. Coal emits around 1.7 times as much carbon per unit of energy when burned as does natural gas and 1.25 times as much as oil. Natural gas gives off 50% of the carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, released by coal and 25% less carbon dioxide than oil, for the same amount of energy produced. Coal contains about 80 percent more carbon per unit of energy than gas does, and oil contains about 40 percent more. For the typical U.S. household, a metric ton of carbon equals about 10,000 miles of driving at 25 miles per gallon of gasoline or about one year of home heating using a natural gas-fired furnace or about four months of electricity from coal-fired generation. 4)Cars: About 20% of U.S carbon dioxide emissions comes from the burning of gasoline in internal-combustion engines of cars and light trucks (minivans, sport utility vehicles, pick-up trucks, and jeeps). Vehicles with poor gas mileage contribute the most to global warming. In other words for each gallon of gas a vehicle consumes, 19.6 pounds of carbon dioxide are emitted into the air. A new Honda Insight that gets 61 miles to the gallon will only emit about 161 pounds of carbon dioxide over the same distance of 500 city miles. Sports utility vehicles were built for rough terrain, off road driving in mountains and deserts. When they are used for city driving, they are so much overkill to the environment. If one has to have a large vehicle for their family, station wagons are an intelligent choice for city driving, especially since their price is about half that of a sports utility. The United States is the largest consumer of oil, using 20.4 million barrels per day. In his debate with former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, during the 2000 Presidential campaign,

Senator Joseph. Lieberman said, "If we can get 3 miles more per gallon from our cars, we'll save 1 million barrels of oil a day. If car manufacturers were to increase their fleets' average gas mileage about 3 miles per gallon, this country could save a million barrels of oil every day, while US drivers would save $25 billion in fuel costs annually. 4)Airplanes: The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that aviation causes 3.5 percent of global warming, and that the figure could rise to 15 percent by 2050. 5)Buildings: Buildings structure account for about 12% of carbon dioxide emissions. This also gives an helping hand to global warming . 6)Methane: While carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, methane is second most important. According to the IPCC, Methane is more than 20 times as effective as CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Levels of atmospheric methane have risen 145% in the last 100 years. Methane is derived from sources such as rice paddies, bovine flatulence, bacteria in bogs and fossil fuel production. 7)Nitrous oxide : Another greenhouse gas is Nitrous oxide (N2O), a colourless, non-flammable gas with a sweetish odour, commonly known as "laughing gas", and sometimes used as an anaesthetic. Nitrous oxide is naturally produced by oceans and rainforests. Man-made sources of nitrous oxide include nylon and nitric acid production, the use of fertilisers in agriculture, cars with catalytic converters and the burning of organic matter. Nitrous

oxide is broken down in the atmosphere by chemical reactions that involve sunlight. 8)Deforestation : After carbon emissions caused by humans, deforestation is the second principle cause of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Deforestation is responsible for 20-25% of all carbon emissions entering the atmosphere, by the burning and cutting of about 34 million acres of trees each year. We are losing millions of acres of rainforests each year. The destroying of tropical forests alone is throwing hundreds of millions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. We are also losing temperate forests. The temperate forests of the world account for an absorption rate of 2 billion tons of carbon annually. In the temperate forests of Siberia alone, the earth is losing 10 million acres per year.

Effects of global warming: 1) What is Acid Rain and What Causes It? "Acid rain" is a broad term used to describe several ways that acids fall out of the atmosphere. A more precise term is acid deposition, which has two parts: wet and dry.

Wet deposition refers to acidic rain, fog, and snow. As this acidic water flows over and through the ground, it affects a variety of plants and animals. The strength of the effects depend on many factors, including how acidic the water is, the chemistry and buffering capacity of the soils involved, and the types of fish, trees, and other living things that rely on the water. Dry deposition refers to acidic gases and particles. About half of the acidity in the atmosphere falls back to earth through dry deposition. The wind blows these acidic particles and gases onto buildings, cars, homes, and trees. Dry deposited gases and particles can also be washed from trees and other surfaces by rainstorms. When that happens, the runoff water adds those acids to the acid rain, making the combination more acidic than the falling rain alone. Acid rain occurs when these gases react in the atmosphere with water, oxygen, and other chemicals to form various acidic compounds. Sunlight increases the rate of most of these reactions. The result is a mild solution of sulfuric acid and nitric acid. 

Effects of Acid Rain: Acid rain causes acidification of lakes and streams and contributes to damage of trees at high elevations (for example, red spruce trees above 2,000 feet) and many sensitive forest soils. In addition, acid rain accelerates the decay of building materials and paints, including irreplaceable buildings, statues, and sculptures that are part of our nation's cultural heritage. Prior to falling to the earth, SO2 and NOx gases and their particulate matter derivatives, sulfates and nitrates, contribute to visibility degradation and harm public health.

We’re not suggesting that global warming is going to be all puppies and rainbows.

Here are the top 5 alleged “positive” effects of global warming. 1.

Less dead people

Assuming there aren’t any wars over scarce resources, food production stays ok, sea levels don’t drown people, and basically nothing else bad happens, we can expect less people to die in the winter. Global warming would cause winter temperatures to rise. In addition to saving us money on our heating bills, this could literally save billions in health care costs and mean less dead people during the colder months. One study said that warmer winters could save up to 40,000 lives a year in the US alone, mostly the young and elderly, with the reductions mostly in things like pneumonia deaths and other cold weather diseases.

2. More food

This one’s related a bit to the longer summers. Those hotter temperatures would also translate into a longer growing season. Plus, plants love CO2! It’s like food for them. All that global warming causing CO2 would act like a fertilizer. With free airborne plant fertilizer and longer growing seasons, food production will skyrocket. Of course, this is assuming that global warming doesn’t cause massive droughts or floods that destroy the crops. As long as that doesn’t happen we’re golden!

3.

More summer fun! WOOOOOOOO!: Summer itself won’t technically last longer, as the dates

are based on sunlight instead of temperature. But if you define summer by warm temperatures, you’re in luck. It’ll stay hot for much longer, so stock up on bathing suits now.

Florida trailer parks will finally be safe: 4.

For years scientists have been quick to claim that global warming will cause more severe storms and a rise in hurricanes and all that sort of severe weather. But a brand new study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests that it might actually be the opposite. The researchers suggest that warmer temperatures will actually decrease the amount of hurricanes that hit the US each year. So feel free to drive your RV down near Miami and just hang out for a while. You’re safe from everything except alligators and high murder rates!

Booming businesses….in the Arctic 5.

The world economy needs a shot in the arm. I know the feds just cut interest rates by .75, but that’s nothing compared to what a melted Arctic circle could do. Without all that pesky ice in the way, the Arctic ocean would be completely open, creating a brand new trade route from the Atlantic to Asia. It’s only traversable in the summer now, but global warming could open it year round, saving money for everyone. It might kill the polar bears, but business would boom in the north, which it sorely needs. Plus you’d save fuel on shipping, so if you think about it a melted Arctic circle is almost “green”.

The 5 deadliest effect of global warming:

1)Spread of disease :

As northern countries warm, disease carrying insects migrate north, bringing plague and disease with them.

2)Warmer waters and more hurricanes

As the temperature of oceans rises, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes. We saw in this in 2004 and 2005.

3) Increased probability and intensity of droughts and heat waves

Although some areas of Earth will become wet due to global warming, other areas will suffer serious droughts and heat waves. Africa will receive the worst of it, with more severe droughts also expected in Europe. Water is already a dangerously rare commodity in Africa, and

according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming will exacerbate the conditions and could lead to conflicts and war.

4) Economic consequences

Most of the effects of anthropogenic global warming won’t be good. And these effects spell one thing for the countries of the world: economic consequences. Hurricanes cause do billions of dollars in damage, diseases cost money to treat and control and conflicts exacerbate all of these.

5) Polar ice caps melting

The ice caps melting is a four-pronged danger. * First, it will raise sea levels. There are 5,773,000 cubic miles of water in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, if all glaciers melted today the seas would rise about 230 feet. Luckily, that’s not going to happen all in one go! But sea levels will rise. *Second, melting ice caps will throw the global ecosystem out of balance. The ice caps are fresh water, and when they melt they will desalinate the ocean, or in plain English - make it less salty. The

desalinization of the gulf current will “screw up” ocean currents, which regulate temperatures. The stream shutdown or irregularity would cool the area around north-east America and Western Europe. Luckily, that will slow some of the other effects of global warming in that area! *Third, temperature rises and changing landscapes in the artic circle will endanger several species of animals. Only the most adaptable will survive. *Fourth, global warming could snowball with the ice caps gone. Ice caps are white, and reflect sunlight, much of which is relected back into space, further cooling Earth. If the ice caps melt, the only reflector is the ocean. Darker colors absorb sunlight, further warming the Earth.

Other effects of Global Warming: Methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs:

1)

Western Siberia is the world's largest peat bog, a one million square kilometer region of permafrost peat bog that was formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The melting of its permafrost is likely to lead to the release, over decades, of large quantities of methane. As much as 70,000 million tonnes of methane, an extremely effective greenhouse gas, might be released over the next few decades, creating an additional source of greenhouse gas emissions. Similar melting has been observed in eastern Siberia.

2)

Effects on weather

Global warming is responsible in part for some trends in natural disasters such as extreme weather. Increasing temperature is likely to

lead to increasing precipitation but the effects on storms are less clear.

Extratropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region warms more than the rest of the Over the course of the 20th century, evaporation rates have reduced worldwide this is thought by many to be explained by global dimming. As the climate grows warmer and the causes of global dimming are reduced, evaporation will increase due to warmer oceans. Because the world is a closed system this will cause heavier rainfall, with more erosion. This erosion, in turn, can in vulnerable tropical areas (especially in Africa) lead to desertification due to deforestation. On the other hand, in other areas, increased rainfall lead to growth of forests in dry desert areas. Many scientists think that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses. The IPCC Third Annual Report says: "...global average water vapor concentration and precipitation are projected to increase during the 21st century. By the second half of the 21st century, it is likely that precipitation will have increased over northern mid- to high latitudes and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases over land areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is projected".

Glacier retreat and disappearance

3)

A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, thickening in blue.

Lewis Glacier, North Cascades, WA USA is one of five glaciers in the area that melted away In historic times, glaciers grew during a cool period from about 1550 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age. Subsequently, until about 1940, glaciers around the world retreated as the climate warmed. Glacier retreat declined and reversed in many cases from 1950 to 1980 as a slight global cooling occurred. Since 1980, glacier retreat has become increasingly rapid and ubiquitous, and has threatened the existence of many of the glaciers of the world. This process has increased markedly since 1995. Excluding the ice caps and ice sheets of the Arctic and Antarctic, the total surface area of glaciers worldwide has decreased by 50% since the end of the 19th century. The loss of glaciers not only directly causes landslides, flash floods and glacial lake overflow, but also increases annual variation in water flows in rivers. Glacier runoff declines in the summer as glaciers decrease in size, this decline is already observable in several regions. Glaciers retain water on mountains in high precipitation years, since the snow cover accumulating on glaciers protects the ice from melting. In warmer and drier years, glaciers offset the lower precipitation amounts with a higher melt water input. Of particular importance are the Hindu Kush and Himalayan glacial melts that comprise the principal dry-season water source of many of the major rivers of the South, East and Southeast Asian mainland. Increased melting would cause greater flow for several decades, after which "some areas of the most populated regions on Earth are likely to 'run out of water'" as source glaciers are depleted. According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan glaciers that are the sources of Asia's biggest rivers - Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow - could disappear by 2035 as temperatures

rise. Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers. India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.

4)

Oceans

The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include largescale changes in ocean circulation.

5)

Sea level rise

Sea level has been rising 0.2 cm/year, based on measurements of sea level rise from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable environments With increasing average global temperature, the water in the oceans expands in volume, and additional water enters them which had previously been locked up on land in glaciers, for example, the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets. An increase of 1.5 to 4.5 °C is estimated to lead to an increase of 15 to 95 cm (IPCC 2001). The sea level has risen more than 120 metres since the peak of the last ice age about 18,000 years ago. The bulk of that occurred before 6000 years ago. From 3000 years ago to the start of the 19th century, sea level was almost constant, rising at 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr; since 1900, the level has risen at an average of 1.7 mm/yr; since 1993, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a rate of about 3 mm/yr.

6)

Temperature rise

From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10°C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-toyear and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007. The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole. As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.

7)

Acidification

The world’s oceans soak up much of the carbon dioxide produced by living organisms, either as dissolved gas, or in the skeletons of tiny marine creatures that fall to the bottom to become chalk or limestone. Oceans currently absorb about one tonne of CO2 per person per year. It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed around half of all CO2 generated by human activities since 1800 (120,000,000,000 tonnes or 120 petagrams of carbon). But in water, carbon dioxide becomes a weak carbonic acid, and the increase in the greenhouse gas since the industrial revolution has already lowered the average pH (the laboratory measure of acidity) of seawater by 0.1 units, to 8.2. Predicted emissions could lower it by a further 0.5 by 2100, to a level not seen for millions of years.

There are concerns that increasing acidification could have a particularly detrimental effect on corals (16% of the world's coral reefs have died from bleaching caused by warm water in 1998, which coincidentally was the warmest year ever recorded) and other marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells.

Tundra region effected by global warming

8)

A name very suited to the environs of the arctic and subarctic, tundra means 'treeless plain' in Finnish. The tundra is a biome (a major segment of a particular region having distinctive vegetation, animals and microorganisms adapted to a unique climate), home to about 1700 kinds of plants, including shrubs, mosses, grasses, lichens and 400 kinds of flowers. About 50 billion tons of carbon are estimated to be held in a frozen state in the tundra, and now the tundra is beginning to become a source of carbon dioxide. In the 1970's University of California biologist Walter Oechel studied carbon dioxide emissions in the tundra, which until this time had been thought of as a carbon sink. Doing further tests in the 1980's, Oechel discovered that this was no longer the case, that warming temperatures had changed the tundra to a net emitter of carbon dioxide. Says Oechel, "We found to our great surprise that the tundra was already losing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. So that by the start of these experiments, which was in 1982, the tundra had already warmed and dried enough, that its historic role as a carbon sink had reversed and changed. It was now losing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. That was totally unexpected."

9)

Forest fires

Rising global temperature might cause forest fires to occur on larger scale, and more regularly. This releases more stored carbon into the atmosphere than the carbon cycle can naturally re-absorb, as well as reducing the overall forest area on the planet, creating a positive feedback loop. Part of that feedback loop is more rapid growth of replacement forests and a northward migration of forests as northern latitudes become more suitable climates for sustaining forests. There is a question of whether the burning of renewable fuels such as forests should be counted as contributing to global warming.

10)

Other Consequences

As recent estimates of the rate of global warming have increased, so have the financial estimates of the damage costs.

11)

Effects on agriculture

For some time it was hoped that a positive effect of global warming would be increased agricultural yields, because of the role of carbon dioxide in photosynthesis, especially in preventing photorespiration, which is responsible for significant destruction of several crops. In Iceland, rising temperatures have made possible the widespread sowing of barley, which was untenable twenty years ago. Some of the warming is due to a local (possibly temporary) effect via ocean currents from the Caribbean, which has also affected fish stocks. While local benefits may be felt in some regions (such as Siberia), recent evidence is that global yields will be negatively affected. "Rising atmospheric temperatures, longer droughts and side-effects of both, such as higher levels of ground-level ozone gas, are likely to bring about a substantial reduction in crop yields in the coming decades, large-scale experiments have shown".

Moreover, the region likely to be worst affected is Africa, both because its geography makes it particularly vulnerable, and because seventy per cent of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the areas that usually get two rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season will get far less. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maize—the country's staple crop— will be grown. Climate change may be one of the causes of the Darfur conflict. The combination of decades of drought, desertification and overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict, because the Arab Baggara nomads searching for water have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming peoples. "The scale of historical climate change, as recorded in Northern Darfur, is almost unprecedented: the reduction in rainfall has turned millions of hectares of already marginal semi-desert grazing land into desert. The impact of climate change is considered to be directly related to the conflict in the region, as desertification has added significantly to the stress on the livelihoods of pastoralist societies, forcing them to move south to find pasture," the UNEP report states

12)

Transport

Roads, airport runways, railway lines and pipelines, (including oil pipelines, sewers, water mains etc) may require increased maintenance and renewal as they become subject to greater temperature variation. Regions already adversely affected include areas of permafrost, which are subject to high levels of subsidence, resulting in buckling roads, sunken foundations, and severely cracked runways.

13)

Flood defense

For historical reasons to do with trade, many of the world's largest and most prosperous cities are on the coast, and the cost of building better coastal defenses (due to the rising sea level) is likely to be considerable. Some countries will be more affected than others — low-lying countries such as Bangladesh and the Netherlands would be worst hit by any sea level rise, in terms of floods or the cost of preventing them.

In developing countries, the poorest often live on flood plains, because it is the only available space, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dykes and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack the insurance, savings or access to credit needed to recover from disasters.

14)

Migration

Some Pacific Ocean island nations, such as Tuvalu, are concerned about the possibility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may become economically inviable for them. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc agreement with New Zealand to allow phased relocation. In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees at around 25 million. (Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugees, which only includes migrants fleeing persecution.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises the world’s governments under the auspices of the UN, estimated that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption (150 million means 1.5% of 2050’s predicted 10 billion world population).

15)

Northwest Passage

Arctic ice thicknesses changes from 1950s to 2050s simulated in one of GFDL's R30 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model experiments Melting Arctic ice may open the Northwest Passage in summer, which would cut 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km) from shipping routes between Europe and Asia. This would be of particular relevance for supertankers which are too big to fit through the Panama Canal and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in Canada's

eastern Arctic Archipelago decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004. In September 2007, the Artic Ice Cap retreated far enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable to shipping for the first time in recorded history. While the reduction of summer ice in the Arctic may be a boon to shipping, this same phenomenon threatens the Arctic ecosystem, most notably polar bears which depend on ice floes. Subsistence hunters such as the Inuit peoples will find their livelihoods and cultures increasingly threatened as the ecosystem changes due to global warming.

16)

Development

The combined effects of global warming may impact particularly harshly on people and countries without the resources to mitigate those effects. This may slow economic development and poverty reduction, and make it harder to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development and environment NGOs, issued a report Up in Smoke on the effects of climate change on development. This report, and the July 2005 report Africa - Up in Smoke? predicted increased hunger and disease due to decreased rainfall and severe weather events, particularly in Africa. These are likely to have severe impacts on development for those affected.

17)

Ecosystems

Unchecked global warming could affect most terrestrial ecoregions. Increasing global temperature means that ecosystems will change; some species are being forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others are flourishing. Secondary effects of global warming, such as lessened snow cover, rising sea levels, and weather changes, may influence not only human activities but also the ecosystem. Studying the association between Earth climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years, scientists from University of York write, "The global temperatures

predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new ‘mass extinction event’, where over 50 per cent of animal and plant species would be wiped out." Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears and emperor penguins. Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and snowy owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be hit hard. Marine invertebrates enjoy peak growth at the temperatures they have adapted to, regardless of how cold these may be, and cold-blooded animals found at greater latitudes and altitudes generally grow faster to compensate for the short growing season. Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout. Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds, and butterflies have shifted their ranges northward by 200 km in Europe and North America. Plants lag behind, and larger animals' migration is slowed down by cities and highways. In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago. In the Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice. Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce, and this is especially true with Salmon and Cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food source for aquatic mammals such as the Blue whale. Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased freshwater inputs from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the worlds oceans, may impact existing fisheries upon which humans depend as well.

18)

Forests

Pine forests in British Columbia have been devastated by a pine beetle infestation, which has expanded unhindered since 1998 at least in part due to the lack of severe winters since that time; a few days of extreme cold kill most mountain pine beetles and have kept outbreaks in the past naturally contained. The infestation, which will have killed 50% of the lodgepole pines by 2008 has passed to Alberta and will spread further East and eventually into America given continued milder winters. Besides the immediate ecological and economic impact, the huge dead forests provide a fire risk as well. Forests in some regions potentially face an increased risk of forest fires. The 10-year average of boreal forest burned in North America, after several decades of around 10,000 km² (2.5 million acres), has increased steadily since 1970 to more than 28,000 km² (7 million acres) annually. This change may be due in part to changes in forest management practices. In the western U. S., since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from 1970 to 1986. A similar increase in wildfire activity has been reported in Canada from 1920 to 1999. Also note forest fires since 1997 in Indonesia. The fires are started to clear forest for agriculture. These occur from time to time and can set fire to the large peat bogs in that region. The CO2 released by these peat bog fires has been estimated, in an average year, to release 15% of the quantity of CO2 produced by fossil fuel combustion.

19)

Mountains:

Mountains cover approximately 25 percent of earth's surface and provide a home to more than one-tenth of global human population. Changes in global climate pose a number of potential risks to mountain habitats. Researchers expect that over time, climate change will affect mountain and lowland ecosystems, the frequency and intensity of forest fires, the diversity of wildlife, and the distribution of water. Studies suggest that a warmer climate in the United States would cause lower-elevation habitats to expand into the higher alpine zone. Such a shift would encroach on the rare alpine meadows and other high-altitude habitats. High-elevation plants and animals have limited space available for new habitat as they move higher on the mountains in order to adapt to long-term changes in regional climate. Changes in climate will also affect the depth of the mountains snowpacks and glaciers. Any changes in their seasonal melting can have powerful impacts on areas that rely on freshwater runoff from mountains. Rising temperature may cause snow to melt earlier and faster in the spring and shift the timing and distribution of runoff. These changes could affect the availability of freshwater for natural systems and human uses.

Ecological productivity

20)

Increasing average temperature and carbon dioxide may have the effect of improving ecosystems' productivity. In photorespiration, carbon dioxide that oxygen can enter a plant's chloroplasts and take the place of carbon dioxide in the Calvin cycle. This causes the sugars being made to be destroyed, suppressing growth. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations tend to reduce photorespiration. Satellite data shows that the productivity of the northern hemisphere has increased since 1982 (although attribution of this increase to a specific cause is difficult). IPCC models predict that higher CO2 concentrations would only spur growth of flora up to a point, because in many regions the limiting

factors are water or nutrients, not temperature or CO2; after that, greenhouse effects and warming would continue but there would be no compensatory increase in growth. Research done by the Swiss Canopy Crane Project suggests that slowgrowing trees only are stimulated in growth for a short period under higher CO2 levels, while faster growing plants like liana benefit in the long term. In general, but especially in rain forests, this means that liana become the prevalent species; and because they decompose much faster than trees their carbon content is more quickly returned to the atmosphere. Slow growing trees incorporate atmospheric carbon for decades.

Environmental

21)

Secondary evidence of global warming — reduced snow cover, rising sea levels, weather changes — provides examples of consequences of global warming that may influence not only human activities but also ecosystems. Increasing global temperature means that ecosystems may change; some species may be forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others may flourish. Few of the terrestrial ecoregions on Earth could expect to be unaffected. Increasing carbon dioxide may increase ecosystems' productivity to a point. Ecosystems' unpredictable interactions with other aspects of climate change makes the possible environmental impact of this is unclear, though. An increase in the total amount of biomass produced may not be necessarily positive: biodiversity can still decrease even though a relatively small number of species are flourishing.

Water scarcity

22)

Positive eustasy may contaminate groundwater, affecting drinking water and agriculture in coastal zones. Increased evaporation will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. Increased extreme weather means more water falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it, leading to flash floods instead of a replenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water supply. The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of

different impacts. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are filled almost exclusively by glacial melt. Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower. Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water for the purposes of cooling and hydration. In the Sahel, there has been on average a 25% decrease in annual rainfall over the past 30 years.

Health Direct effects of temperature rise

23)

The most direct effect of climate change would be the impacts of hotter temperatures themselves. Extreme high temperatures increase the number of people who die on a given day for many reasons: people with heart problems are vulnerable because one's cardiovascular system must work harder to keep the body cool during hot weather, heat exhaustion, and some respiratory problems increase. Global warming could mean more cardiovascular diseases, doctors warn. Higher air temperature also increase the concentration of ozone at ground level. In the lower atmosphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant. It damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases. Rising temperatures have two opposing direct effects on mortality: higher temperatures in winter reduce deaths from cold; higher temperatures in summer increase heat-related deaths. The distribution of these changes obviously differs. Palutikof et al calculate that in England and Wales for a 1 °C temperature rise the reduced deaths from cold outweigh the increased deaths from heat,

resulting in a reduction in annual average mortality of 7000. The European heat wave of 2003 killed 22,000–35,000 people, based on normal mortality rates. Peter A. Stott from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research estimated with 90% confidence that past human influence on climate was responsible for at least half the risk of the 2003 European summer heat-wave. In the United States, more than 1000 people die from the cold each year, while twice that number die from the heat. The 2006 United States heat wave has killed 139 people in California as of 29 July 2006. Deaths of livestock have not been well-documented. Fresno, in the central California valley, had six consecutive days of 110 degree-plus Fahrenheit temperatures.

Other Impacts of Global Warming Global warming will have serious impacts on the environment and on society. Higher temperatures will cause a melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. This will accelerate the rise of sea level. The speed at which global warming is expected to occur in the 21st century is faster than most plant and animal species will be able to cope with. Some will adapt but others will suffer and may become extinct. Global warming will affect agriculture. New crops will be able to be grown in areas that are currently too cold to support them. However, more pests and diseases may offset any benefits higher temperatures may have. Water resources will also be affected. Some reservoirs may dry up if temperature increases, especially if rainfall also decreases. Rising sea levels may pollute fresh groundwater supplies with salt water. Global warming will also affect human health. There may be more heat-related illnesses in hotter summers, and increased breathing problems as higher temperatures increase air pollution in cities, reducing air quality. The malaria mosquito may also be able to spread to other regions of the world where it is currently too cold to survive and breed. More extreme weather, for example storms, floods and droughts will have severe impacts on the environment and on society. The poorest

people in society will unfortunately be those least able to cope with the impacts of global warming.

 How to prevent?

Switch to energyefficient lighting*

Replace the familiar incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs. For each CFL bulb replacement, you'll lower your energy bill and keep nearly 700 pounds of carbon dioxide out of the air over the bulb's lifetime. CFL bulbs last much longer and use only a quarter of the energy consumed by conventional bulbs. LED bulbs are also energysaving, but have a narrower range of application. Advances in LED bulb technology, however, are leading to more applications for these bulbs in the home. LEDs are more efficient than CFLs and do not have issues surrounding disposal, as do the CFLs.

Improve the efficiency of home appliances -Home appliances vary greatly in *

terms of energy-efficiency and operating costs. The more energyefficient an appliance is, the less it costs to run. You can lower your utility bill and help protect the environment.

Buy energy-efficient appliances – *

When shopping for a new appliance - especially a major appliance such as a refrigerator, dishwasher, or air-conditioner - select the one with the highest energy efficiency rating. By opting for a refrigerator with the Energy Star label -- indicating it uses at least 15 percent less energy than the federal requirement -- you can reduce carbon dioxide pollution by nearly a ton in total.

Reduce energy needed for heating – *

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, heating and cooling systems in the U.S. emit over a half billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. Much of the energy used for heating our homes is wasted, and yet the prevention is, in many cases, simple and inexpensive.

Reduce energy needed for cooling – *

Air conditioners alone use up to 1/6th of the electricity in the U.S. and, on hot summer days, consume 43% of the U.S. peak power load. You can reduce much of the need for air conditioning, and enjoy a cost savings benefit, by using 'passive' techniques to help cool your home.

Improve vehicle fuelefficiency- The second largest source of greenhouse gases is transportation. Motor vehicles are responsible for about a third of all carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. and Canada.

Recycle air conditioner coolant - If your *

car has an air conditioner, make sure you recycle its coolant whenever you have it serviced. You can save thousands of pounds of carbon dioxide each year by doing this.

*

Drive less - You'll save energy by taking

the bus, riding a bike, or walking. Try consolidating trips to the mall or longer routine drives. Encourage carpooling.

Reduce lawn size

* - Lawn size can be reduced by adding shrubs, beds, ground covers and mulched areas. Try creating a lawn area small enough to be mowed using an efficient reel (push) mower. Lawn edging can be set low enough to mow over, reducing or eliminating the need for a weed-eater.

Recycle whenever possible - aluminum cans, newspapers, magazines, *

cardboard, glass - anything recycled reduces the energy needed to create new products. To find the recycling center nearest you, call: 1 800CLEANUP.

Eat locally produced food - Today, the food choices available in *

supermarkets come from all over the world. All of this 'traffic' in food requires staggering amounts of fuel generally by refrigerated airplanes or transport trucks. Food transportation is one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. *

Eat vegetarian meals -

Vegetarian food requires much less energy to produce. Enjoying vegetarian meals once or twice a week results in significant CO2 savings.

Choose clean energy options - If you can choose your electricity *

supplier, pick a company that generates at least half its power from wind, solar energy and other renewable sources.

Buy clean energy certificates and carbon offsets - Help spur the *

renewable energy market and cut global warming pollution with "wind certificates" or "green tags," which represent clean power you can add to the nation's energy grid in place of electricity from fossil fuels.

Conserve energy in the home and yard *

Yard maintenance contributes significantly to greenhouse emissions. Per hour of operation, a power lawn mower emits 10-12 times as much hydrocarbon as a typical auto. A weed eater emits 21 times more and a leaf blower 34 times more.

“Making energy conservation a part of our daily awareness is essential to the goal of reducing global warming.”

Scientists fear global warming higher than expected New scientific modelling suggests the earth's average temperature could rise by 7.8°C by 2300 if fossil fuel consumption remains unchanged, with polar ice caps melting and seas rising by seven meters.

Brief News:

New climate modelling by researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California suggest the magnitude of global warming could be much higher than expected, with dire consequences for the economy. The researchers' simulations show that, if humans use the entire planet's available fossil fuels by the year 2300, the polar ice caps will be depleted, sea levels will rise by seven meters and median air temperatures will soar to 7.8°C warmer than the present day. The Arctic and Antarctic would be hardest hit with temperatures there rising more than in the tropics, by more than 20°C, forcing the land in the region to change from ice and tundra to boreal forests. Separate research performed by scientists at the Harvard Medical School of Public Affairs point to significant impact of climate change on human health with dire costs for the economy and significant impact on the insurance industry. Rates of vector-borne and infectious diseases such as lyme and malaria are expected to increase as ticks and mosquitoes responsible for their transmission proliferate. These are expected to affect African countries most but also other regions such as North America, the researchers pointed out. Rising incidence of asthma is also expected as emissions of carbon dioxide rises. The study was co-sponsored by Reinsurance firm Swiss Re and the United Nations Development Programme (UNEP). As a reinsurance company, our goal is to evaluate and plan for the long-term," said Jacques Dubois, Chairman of Swiss Re America Holding Corporation. "This report provides a crucial look at physical and economic aspects of climate change. It also assesses current risks and potential business opportunities that can help minimise future risks.

Chilling global forecast Global warming could disrupt the world's sea currents, sending Europe into a chill within 100 years and devastating tropical ocean life, a CSIRO scientist says. Richard Matear, a Hobart-based marine researcher, said the oxygen content of deep ocean water between Australia and Antarctica had fallen 3 per cent since 1968. If new research confirmed the decline was happening throughout the world's southern oceans, it would be a strong sign global warming was interfering with sea

currents. According to NASA "the thawing of sea ice covering the Arctic could disturb or even halt large currents in the Atlantic Ocean. "Without the vast heat these currents deliver comparable to the power generation of a million nuclear power plants - Europe's average temperature would likely drop 5 to 10 degrees." While North America would not be as severely hit, the space agency said "such a dip in temperature would be similar to global average temperatures toward the end of the last ice age roughly 20,000 years ago". While NASA said many scientists were sceptical, it quoted Dr Robert Gagosian, director of the private Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts, as saying such a change in ocean currents could happen within 20 years.

Conclusion: Global temperature measurements remote from human habitation and activity show no evidence of a warming during the last century. Such sites include “proxy” measurements such as tree rings, marine sediments and ice cores, weather balloons and satellite measurements in the lower atmosphere, and many surface sites where human influence is minimal. The small average and highly irregular individual warming displayed by surface measurements is therefore caused by changes in the thermal environment of individual measurement stations over long periods of time, and not by changes in the background climate.

Bibliography: www.epa.gov www.wikipedia.com www.ecobridge.org www.environmentalgraffiti.com www.eartheasy.com www.managementparadise.com