Global Warming - So What?

Global Warming

So What? . November 2007 .

Droughts Worsen. Deserts Spread. The Culprit?

Evaporation . .

Catastrophe in Slow Motion materializes slowly. Emissions today cause warming that Damages from our actions so far will intensify for decades to come. The more stuff we put in the air now,

.

Droughts Worsen .

Road Map of the Show How Earth Warms Signs of Warming Droughts Are THE Problem Emission Reduction Paths Warmer = More Damages $ Costs: Damages & Mitigation Solutions Conclusion & Mini-References

Oil Imports • Oil is getting expensive, recently above $80 a barrel. • Gasoline recently topped $3 a gallon for weeks in the US. • The era of cheap gasoline in America is over. • The US imports 60% of its oil. That’s up from 53% in 2000, when George W. Bush was elected, and up from 38% when his father took office. • The US imports twice as much oil as any other nation uses. Texas uses 3.1 times as much oil as it “produces”, Louisiana 4.1 times as much. • US oil production peaked in 1970. Alaska gave us an uptick, but it’s been downhill since 1985.

Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity goes on with business as usual, climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of today's children. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said “I think that is a correct assessment.” He added carefully “If we take action today, it may not be too late.” September 24, 2007 UN Chief on Climate Change

The Tipping Point •

Report to US & British Legislators - January 2006 in the US, to Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

What would make climate change accelerate? •

Disappearance of sea ice means more heat is absorbed by the water below.

•

Carbon sinks fade & fail in oceans & forests.

3 Methane release from permafrost revs up warming in a vicious circle.

Greenhouse Effect Dark Earth absorbs sunlight. Earth warms up and radiates heat. Greenhouse gases in the air (GHGs) intercept some outgoing radiation and re-radiate it back down. This warms Earth more. More GHGs = warmer still. Cyclic changes in solar output have warmed and cooled Earth modestly. By now, human GHGs warm Earth much more than solar changes do. Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Those surfaces don’t warm Earth much. Changing a light surface (ice) to a dark one (water) warms Earth. Changing a dark surface (forest) to a lighter one (desert) cools Earth.

Greenhouse Gases • GHGs warm Earth by 32°C (58°F). Earth would average 0°F without them.

• Water vapor (H2O) does 66-85% of this warming. But H2O stays up for only 2-3 weeks, on average. Concentrations vary many-fold over time and space. As Earth warms up, evaporation increases H2O in the air. This amplifies warming from other GHGs considerably. So, scientists often treat H2O not as a GHG, but a feedback for other GHGs.

• Carbon dioxide (CO2) does 55% of the remaining net warming. Almost all US CO2 comes from burning coal, oil & natural gas. Per unit of energy, coal emits 4 units of CO2, oil 3, natural gas 2. •

Methane (CH4, natural gas - wetlands, cows, rice, landfills, coal mines) does 16%.

•

CFCs (old air conditioners, ozone hole) do 11%.

•

Ozone (O3) does 10%, net. Nitrous oxide (N2O - fertilizers) does 5%.

•

Vostok Ice Core Data For hundreds of thousands of years, temperatures have tracked the levels of GHGs CO2 and CH4 in the air. The difference between 190 and 280 ppm of CO2 was 10°C (18°F) and ice almost a mile deep covering Chicago. ∆

Thousand Years before Present ppm = parts per million ppb = parts per billion

+

2006 temperature

Vimeux, Cuffey & Jouzel, Earth and Planetary Science Vostok Ice Core Letters 203: 829-843 (2002)Data

•

CO2 Levels in Earth's Atmosphere 390 Up 36%

370

350 Acceleration began. 330

310 300 ppm(ppm) (maximum between ice ages) parts per million 290 Annual Averages 270 1750

1790

1830

1870

1910

1950

1990

So far, half the CO2 emitted has stayed in the air. The rest has been sinking - into the oceans, into trees, into soils, and so forth. But the ocean sink seems to be fading fast. Disappearing forests weaken another sink. The difference between 280 and 380 ppm of CO2 remains to be seen. We’ve seen some of it so far. But much of the effect is delayed. It materializes slowly.

C

How Solar Changes Affect Climate Satellites confirm that solar output waxes and wanes with sunspots, by ~ ±0.1%, over periods of ~ 11 years. Longer-term variations may be twice that. A brighter sun warms oceans. Gases are less soluble in warmer water. CO2 un-dissolves, weakening ocean carbon sinks. More H2O evaporates. The added GHGs warm Earth more and amplify solar cycle (& human GHG) effects. A brighter sun has a stronger magnetic field. It shields Earth from more cosmic rays, so they create fewer ions to become cloud condensation nuclei. Less cloudy. Less shade. Warming. This too amplifies solar cycle effects. The reverse occurs when the sun dims. The Medieval Optimum stayed as warm as the 1970s. Vikings colonized Greenland. Sand dunes spread across Nebraska. During 3 Little Ice Ages (with few or no sunspots - a dimmer sun), climates averaged 0.5°C colder than 1970’s climate. Greenland Viking colonies died out in the first Little Ice Age. The Medieval Optimum averaged 0.5°C warmer than a Little Ice Age, but today’s climate is another 0.7°C warmer still. Human GHGs already warm Earth 5-6 times as much as solar maximum effects. But solar cycles warm, then cool. Human warming is growing fast. In 25 years, human GHGs could warm Earth 10 times as much as solar maxima.

• Half the sunlight reaching our atmosphere makes it to the surface. Barriers include blue sky (not black), clouds, haze & the ozone layer.

Clouds • Clouds reflect some sunlight away, cooling Earth. They also keep outbound heat in, warming Earth, esp. at night. • Low clouds cool Earth more than they warm it. High clouds do the reverse. • Clouds cover a little more than half of Earth. On balance, clouds cool Earth. • Changes in cloud cover affect global temperature. So do changes in % high clouds vs low clouds. • Many factors affect cloud formation & distribution. At night & going up over mountains, air cools. Cool air holds less H2O, so it will often cloud up & rain. Clouds

Sulfates & Cooling • Dark sulfates in the air block sunlight. That cools Earth. • Sulfates make haze & become cloud condensation nuclei. More sulfates = cloudier = cooler. • Most sulfates come from burning coal, some from volcanoes. SO2 goes up the smokestacks. It changes to SO4 (sulfate) up in the air.

• GHGs stay in the air many years, sulfates usually for days. • GHG levels keep rising. Sulfate levels don’t. • Sulfates currently offset 40% of warming from human GHGs.

Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming NASA GISS

at Land Surface

fa ll.

w

0.6

7,000 weather stations - adjusted for urban heat island effects

sulfates still 3x 1880 levels

Global Air Temperatures

in g

0.8

ar m

∆°C

fa te s

Æ¡C

Su l

0.4

0.2 es at

f

l al

a

cool

w l u u bo m s ked s fa e WW I: r fro as vel m e more SO2 n- O4 l u up the stacks S

US SO2 cuts start

Expansion: more SO2

-0.4 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 Great Sulfates rise. Depression Cooling 1880 40 offsets 61 89 77 116 GHG warming. Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice Warming

El Chichón

Sulfates r ise, big t major coo ime. ling

f ul S 0.0 it. b + Sulfates rise g in WW II some more. rm th from 1951-80 Baseline a Temperature Krakatoa Difference more SO2, w rm Cooling a ht G w n so cooling -0.2 GH nd nlig he JFK-LBJ l

Mt. Pinatubo

US Clean Air Act

5-year mean 1980

162

2000

118

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2002)

2000

•

Land warms more (faster) than oceans.

It warms more when & where it’s coldest: in winter, at night, & especially toward the poles.

Earth Is Heating Up • Earth now absorbs 440 million MW more than it emits: our carbon emissions at work - the greenhouse effect. This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960. immense momentum! 440 million MW = 100 x global electric supply: big time heating! • Air at the land surface is 1.0°C warmer than 100 years ago. The last two decades brought 0.17°C, then 0.35°C warming. Another 0.6°C warming (so far) is “in the pipeline.” That is, Earth will warm another 0.6°C, so it emits enough heat to balance absorption.

• Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than 100 years ago. • The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than ALL theseveral energy humans One MW can power hundred US homes. have EVER used. ~ means “approximately, roughly, is about equal to”

1°C = 1.8°F.

So? Water Hurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains. Intense hurricanes are becoming more common. Higher hurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming. Mountain glaciers and snowpacks are dwindling ever faster. Greenland’s ice-melt rate rose 150% over the past decade. Its net melt-water now exceeds US water use. Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast. In 2007 it was 20% below the old record, down 40% in 25 years. Summer ice will be gone in 5-50 years. Thawing permafrost holds 2-4 x MORE carbon than humans have emitted, EVER. Big potential warming The area covered by permafrost has shrunk by 7% since 1900. With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic. Shells dissolve easier. Oceans warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004, so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2. From the mid-1990s to 2002-05, CO2 uptake in the N Atlantic fell by half.

Is That All?. No Water .. Desert belts expanded 70 miles toward the poles, 1979-2004. Forest fires now burn 6 x as much area / year as before 1986. The Amazon drought is the worst in decades, Australia’s the worst on record.

With more evaporation & irrigation, many water tables fall 3-20 feet/year.

Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai (China) vanished. 92% in Hebei (Beijing).

Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper. Water prices rise. Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur), Lake Eyre dry up & vanish. More rivers fail to reach the sea - Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Darling.

Turning Wheat into Cactus In October 2006, the Union of Concerned Scientists calculated how climate would change for 9 Northeast states in 2 scenarios: #1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or #2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions). By 2085, averaged across 9 states, the climate change would be like moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use). Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country. 330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City. 650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Stockton, Texas. 2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there. Mesquite & sagebrush too.

No wheat

By 2059, “Once a Century” Drought Can Cover 45% of Earth. Supply-Demand Drought Index

1969

1999

.

Business as Usual Emissions in 2059 2 x CO2 +4.2°C +14% rain 2029

2059

Climate Model: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) DRY

WET 0

1

5

16

36

36

16

5

1

% Occurrence in Control Run

0

••

Fig. 1 in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, “Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Droughts,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004.

. . .

Projected Drought Conditions 70

•

Land Surface, except Antarctica June-August, Business as Usual Emissions

2x CO2

Based on Supply-Demand Drought Index 60 50

Dry 16% Drought 5% Extreme Drought 1%

}

Occurrence in Control Run

40 30

Occurence (%) 20 10 0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Fig. 2 in Rind et al., 1990

“Once a century” drought can cover 45% of Earth’s land by 2059.

2060 2x CO2

Over 2000-04, the average frequencies are 18% for “Drought” and 33%Projected for “Dry”.Droughts by Year . A weighted average for “as dry as 11% of the time” drought is ~ 27%.

Thanks for the crystal ball. BUT Is any of this actually happening?

YES. .

Remember forest fires, falling water tables, disappearing lakes and rivers? (Please also remember “11% of the time” drought was projected to increase to 27% of the time over 2000-2004.)

Now for the BIG

PICTURE

Droughts Are Spreading Already, Ahead of Schedule. •      

25 -3.0 <

Very Dry Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60¡S - 75¡N precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming

Compare 2002 to 1979.

Drought 20 Index 15 Extreme

or

Severity

co ef mb 10 fec ine d sq mil t ua lio re n m m o i l e re s

.  -    30

11% of the time during 1951-80

Area where rain is scarce increased by quite a bit: 3-4 million square miles.

10

, ed s a re 87. c in 19 n e tio inc a or ot s p l a Ev by a

Drought

Severe 5

Palmer with 0 . %

-5 1950

1960

1970

from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NOAA], "A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130

1980

1990

2000

Compare 30% actual severe drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide. Droughts spread, as projected or faster.

Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979.

Evaporation at work Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.

OK, So Warming Produces More Dry Areas.

What about Wet Areas? Won’t rainfall increase elsewhere? Won’t wet areas increase as much as dry areas? After all, what goes up must come down. Right?

•

Very Wet Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60¡S - 75¡N

20

precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming

15 +3.0

Rainy area shrank & grew.

10 - Palmer

Wet 5

During 1950-1980, the precipitation effect made 11.2% of areas very wet. Cooling (1957, ‘66, ‘77, ‘79) kicked that up to 11.5%.

Compare 2002 to 1979.

Severity Index >

combined effect: decrease 2-6% (1-3 million square miles) ed

Very %

s rea

inc n o ati

or

0

ap Ev

Drought -5 1950

.

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

from Fig. 9 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, 2004

The combined decrease was 6% from 1979 to 2002 alone, but only 3% from the 1950-80 mean to the 1992-2002 average. Over 23 years, the soggy area shrank by the size of India, more or Very less.Wet Areas

Wet Areas vs Dry Areas

Sparse precipitation made 14-22% of Earth very dry [bottom] with PDSI < -3.0 for 1982-2002. average 17.3%, up 6.4% from baseline Rain-poor areas grew much more than rainy ones. In particular, rainy areas grew by 0.7% (0.4 million sq miles), while rain-poor areas grew by 6.4% (3.3 million sq miles).

precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming

Rainy area shrank & grew.

15

- Palmer 10

Wet During> 1951-1980, Severity Index %

Baseline Compare 2002 to 1979.

Drought 0

-5 1950

1960

25 -3.0

During 1951-80, 10.9% of the area was rain-poor

Severity

or

8% of Earth’s land was very wet,

10

but 30% was very dry.

Drought Severe

with0 % Palmer .

-5 1950

2000

carce in is s it: a r e r b he Area w d by quite a es. e il s m a are incre d, on squ li il m se . 3-4 a re 87 inc 19 n tio ce ra t sin o ap lo Ev by a

Baseline

5

With more evaporation,

1990

Compare 2002 to 1979.

Drought 20

Extreme

1980

inc on i t ora ap v E

precipitation effect warming effect precipitation + warming

     

15

1970

. ed

s rea

Very Dry Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60¡S - 75¡N

.  30 -   

Index <

Moreover, increased evaporation from warming dried out wet areas. It dried out dry areas even more.

combined effect: decrease 2-6% (1-3 million square miles)

rain made 11.2% very wet.

Very5

co m bin 10 ed m sq il ef ua lio fe re n m ct m o ile re s

Heavy precipitation made 10-15% of Earth very wet [top graph] with PDSI > +3.0 for 1982-2002. average 11.9%, up 0.7% from baseline

•

Very Wet Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60¡S - 75¡N

20

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

RECAP Severe drought has arrived, as projected or faster. Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of Asia. So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation.

From 1979 to 2002

(+0.5°C) .

1) The area where rain is scarce increased by the size of the United States. Add in more evaporation.

.

2) The area with severe drought increased by the size of North America. 3) The area suffering severe drought tripled. 4) The similarly wet area decreased by the size of India.

What Drives Drought? • The water-holding capacity of air rises exponentially with temperature.

• Air 4°C warmer holds 33% more moisture at the same relative humidity.

(That’s the flip side of “air cools. It holds less H2O, so it clouds up & rains.”) .

More moisture in the air does not equal more clouds. To maintain soil moisture, 10% more rain is required to offset each 1°C warming. Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), so less goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams). More water is stored in the air, less in soils. Satellites are already showing more water vapor in the air. Not all the water that goes up comes back down.

Droughts - Why Worry? 2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions)

Rind et al., 1990

• More moisture in the air, but 15-27% less in the soil. • Average US stream flows decline 30%, despite 14% more rain.

• Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%. • More dry climate vegetation: savannas, prairies, deserts The change in vegetation means

• Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%. SWITCH TO ACTUALS. .

• Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994. Fung 2005 Droughts - Why Worry?

Crop Yields Fall.

Rind et al., 1990.

United States: 2059 Projections - doubled CO2 - Business as Usual – Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great Plains • Corn, Wheat, Soybeans - 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th) 2 Climate Models (Scenarios)

• NASA GISS Results

(based on +4.2°C, +14% rain)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

–Yields fall 30%, averaged across regions & crops. • GFDL Results (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab) (based on ~ +4.5°C, -5% rain) –Yields fall 50%, averaged across regions & crops. CO2 fertilization not included . So things won’t be quite this bad, at least this soon. The temperature effect of doubled CO2 will continue to grow, to 4.2 or 4.5°C, but over the rest of the century (and beyond). CO2 fertilization boosts yields 6-30% in experiments, where water and other nutrients are well supplied, and weeds and pests are controlled. That won’t happen as well in many fields. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation are growing scarcer in many areas. Thus CO2 fertilization benefits in fields may be less.

Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to

[like blood] .

(1) get it up to leaves, where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates, (2) pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves, and

[like sweat] .

(3) cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues & proteins aren’t damaged. When water is scarce, nutrient transport suffers. •

For wheat, corn & rice, photosynthesis in leaves slows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F).

•

Warming (above 35 or 40°C) hurts warm, tropical areas harder & sooner.

•

Rule of thumb: Warming above the norm cuts corn, rice & soybean yields by 10% / °C.

•

1°C warming cut corn & soybean yields 17% in 618 or more US counties.

•

2°C warming cut yields by 37-58% for irrigated wheat in India, but only 8-38% with CO2 fertilization. Photosynthesis, Warming & CO2

.

World Grain Production

2400

Food & Agriculture Organization; Worldwatch Institute, 2006

400

•

350

2000

300

1600

250

1200

200 150

800

Millon Tons

Million Tons per capita

400

100 50

0

0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

80% of human food comes from grains. • World grain production barely rose from 1992 to 2006 (mainly in 2004). Production per capita peaked in 1985, at 343 kilograms per person. It has since fallen to 305. • The Green Revolution is stagnating. Growing water scarcity is one factor. • Insects, fungi and other pests are spreading northward. World Grain Production . • Pests consume 40% of crops and rising - 50% in many tropical areas.

kg

Major Crops: US, China & India Produce Half of World Total Corn

300 250

200

200

160

150

120 80

100

Million 50

US Metric Tons China India

0 1990

1994

Million 40 1998

2002

2006

US China MetricIndia Tons

0 1990

1994

Wheat

120

75

80

60

60

45

40

30

US China Metric IndiaTons

0 1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Soybeans

90

100

Million 20

Rice

240

US China India

Million Metric Tons 15

1998

2002

2006

0 1990

1994 1998Rice, Soy 2002 2006 Corn, Wheat, - US, China, India

• •

• •

Researchers studying impacts of climate change project world food production to rise 110% by 2080, up 0.9%/year. Production actually rose only 0.7%/year since 1990. All the increase will occur away from the tropics. In the tropics, food production will fall. These researchers do not mention eroding soils, nor the problems of finding water to irrigate crops as glaciers and snowpacks fade away, and as water tables fall. Satellites show that, since 1994, hot, dry summers outweigh warm, wet springs. A world that was turning greener is now turning browner. Crop production (2 slides ago) & stocks (below) don’t show faster crop yield increases.

World Grain Stocks 140 120 100 80 60 40

Days 20 of Consumption

Earth Policy Institute, 2006

0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

World Grain Stocks

With less food, feed fewer animals. Eat less meat.

Farm Adaptations to Drought • Plant more drought-resistant crops. • Plant smarter, like System for Rice Intensification. More space between the roots cuts fertilizer & pests, hikes yields & raises drought tolerance.

• Plant crops (food or not) that rebuild soil carbon.

• Use much more drip irrigation. • Cover reservoirs and irrigation canals to retard evaporation. • Plant more wheat, less rice. Rice is water-hungry.

• Go North, young man! Mexicans to the US, Americans to Canada, Italians to Sweden, Pakistanis to Britain, Algerians to France, Turks to Germany, Chinese to Siberia,

Arabs to Russia.

Bengalis to Greenland?

• Increasing crop production may no longer be possible, except briefly - by degrading soils faster, on marginal lands, as Soviets & Chinese did.

•

Deserts Are Already Spreading. 50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1950-2002 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 -180 Fig. 7 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Dec. 2004

-120 -6.0

-60 -4.0

0 -2.0

More negative is drier.

0.0

60 +2.0

120 +4.0

180 +6.0

More positive is wetter.

The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. See Spain, Italy, Greece. The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing. Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. The USA has lucked out so far.

80

.

•

CO2 Emission Paths to

90

Business as Usual 550 ppm CO2e 450 ppm CO2e

70 60 e/yr 2

CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes warming from CO2 & other GHGs, less the cooling effect of sulfates.

50 40

Total Warming

30

Billion Tons CO Global Emissions 20 10

+3°C

-67% -78%

Stern Review, British Government, October 2006

0 2000

2020

+2°C 2040

2060

2080

2100

Holding eventual warming to 2°C, above 1750 levels, will be challenging. We are already at 430 ppm CO2e (including 380 of CO2). 450 is not far. (Feb. 2007 IPCC projections OMIT warming before 1990 and after 2099. That’s almost as much as they include. They understate total warming.) 430 ppm CO2e = 380 CO2 + 310 other GHGs - 260 sulfate cooling.

CO2 Stabilization Paths

World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels

International Energy Agency, 2007

28.2 Billion Tons in 2005 MidEast & C Asia

China’s 2,284 increase ~ US + Europe + Mid East + Russia + misc Asia + Latin America + Japan

Changes, 1997-2005

Million %/ Europe Tons Year 17.6% 413 0.90 US 2,284 7.11 China 191 0.49 Europe 661 4.62 Middle East 503 3.72 misc. Asia 214 1.70 Russia 206 1.87 Latin America 93 0.98 Japan 303 3.84 India 182 2.43 Africa 88 1.89 Canada 85 2.60 Australia+ 5,224 2.59 World +23% over 8 years

China 19.2%

China passed the US in 2006.

Misc* Asia 7.0%

Russia 6.0%

* Misc. = Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.

Latin America 5.3% Japan 4.4%

Other 11.7%

India 4.1%

Africa 3.7% Canada 2.2% Oceania 1.6%

United States 21.1%

Emissions of other GHGs are not shown. In the US, fossil fuel CO2 comes 44% from oil, 36% from coal, 20% from natural gas. 40% comes from electricity, 33% from transportation, 17% from industry.

•

•

US CO2 Reduction Paths: Bills in Congress 11

ual

Us s as

+5°C

es usin

), tri (H e P / l Udal rice cap with p

B

10 9 8

Bingaman (S), no price cap

7

+4°C

6

Emissions 2 5 COBillion Tons /

McCain / Lieberman (S)

4 3 2

Sa Wa

rs /

Bo x n (H er (S) )

xma

early 2007: New York Times, World Resources Institute

Olver / Gilchrest (H)

nde

now e (S

80% Reduction

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

+2.8°C

Kerr y/S

)

+2.2°C +2°C

1 2005

+3°C

2035

2040

2045

2050

Please contact your US Senators and Representative. Ask them to support a US carbon cap & trade system that reduces caps steadily, to 20% of 2007 levels by 2050. Limit warming to 2°C.

CO2 Cap Bills in Congress .

+1°C is here. 0.6° more is in the pipeline.

Plus, emissions continue.

2°C warming is unavoidable, but it is manageable. Holding warming to 2°C, not 4°, prevents these losses:

Gross World Product ($45 Trillion) 1/5 of the World’s Food Amazon Rainforest 1/5 of the world’s oxygen supply

Gulf Stream + West Antarctic Icecap

much of Florida, Long Island, Norfolk area, Cape Cod

1/2 of All Species +4°C threatens civilization itself.

5°C warming is worse.

Details to follow: first 2, next 3, then 4, finally 5°C.

2° vs 4° Warming

2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e .

. (Waxman bill or Sanders-Boxer bill) (selected effects - Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006) (unavoidable damages)

.

• Hurricane costs double. Many more major floods • Major heat waves are common. Forest fires worsen. • Droughts intensify. Deserts spread. • Civil wars & border wars over water increase: more Darfurs.

CNA Corp. - 11 retired US Generals & Admirals, April 2007

• Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics. • Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible. If we play it right, melting takes ~3,000 years. If we play it wrong, ~400 years.

• Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh. The invasion lasts for centuries. We choose now how fast and how far.

3°C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e (McCain-Lieberman bill, watered down) additional damages - avoidable

Stern Review & CNA Corp. .

• Droughts & hurricanes get much worse. • Hydropower and irrigation decline. Water is scarce. • Crop yields fall substantially in many areas. • More water wars & failed states. Terrorists multiply. • The Amazon rainforest begins to collapse. • Tropical diseases spread farther and faster. • 15-50% of species face extinction.

.

4°C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e (double pre-industrial levels)

(Bingaman bill, no price cap) additional damages - avoidable

•

Stern Review & CNA

Water shortages afflict almost all people.

• Crop yields fall in all regions, by 1/3 in many. • Entire regions cease agriculture altogether. • Water wars, refugee crises & terrorism become intense. • Methane release from permafrost accelerates. • The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail. • The West Antarctic ice sheet begins to collapse. “Gulf Stream” is shorthand for the world ocean thermohaline circulation, to which it’s connected.

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• 5°C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e (Business as Usual Emissions)

extrapolations

Deserts GROW by 2-4 x the size of the US. World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2. Human population falls a lot,. to match the reduced food supply. Other species fare worse. Act now to avoid this.

5°C Warming

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Costs

Stern Review

(Business as Usual Emissions: +5°C)

Damages

(inflation-adjusted $)

$74 Trillion (present value) = 175% of GWP by 2100, $20 Trillion per year (~1.5 x US GNP) by 2100, 11-14% of GWP each year $85 / Ton of CO2

To Avoid Most Damages Spend 1% of GWP, each year, ± 2%. Damages fall to $20 - $30 / Ton of CO2. Savings ~ $2.5 Trillion, net from each year’s spending. Annual benefits ~ 7 x $420 Billion annual expenses. Use Low-Carbon Products: ~ $500 Billion/Year Market by 2050.

Geo-Engineering Solutions 1 Mirrors in Space - to block sunlight We’d need 1.25 million sq km of mirrors now, twice the size of Texas. Add that much in 30 years, and again in 50. Even if the mirrors are as thin as Saran Wrap, we’d need 100 space shuttle-sized cargo launches every day this century.

2 Sulfates in the Stratosphere - to block sunlight We’d need 500-1,000 flights every day to the stratosphere by big cargo planes. The sulfates will fall out eventually, so we will breathe them in. Breathing sulfates already kills more than 1 million people a year.

3 Farm the Oceans

- take carbon out of the air.

Add iron filings to iron-poor areas of ocean. Algae bloom & suck CO2 from the air. Algae must suck 8 x as much carbon from the air as the food we harvest contains. Just to break even. Oceans may be too small, even if fertilization works perfectly. Algae may not sink. Tiny creatures eat them. Soon carbon can re-enter the air. Additional fertilizers (K, P, N) may be needed. Other problems will pop up.

Solutions are out there, ready for a carbon cap. •

In January 2007, 10 companies called for a carbon cap & trade system to cut US CO2 emissions 60-80% by 2050. General Electric BP America Caterpillar Alcoa Duke Energy DuPont PNM Resources Florida P&L Pacific G&E Lehman Brothers

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In May 2007, 12 companies joined them: General Motors Shell Johnson & Johnson AIG ConocoPhillips Pepsi John Deere Siemens Dow Chemical Alcan Boston Scientific Marsh Inc.

• More than 40 other big companies are supportive. Examples: Boeing Wal-Mart Staples National Grid Ford Whirlpool Exelon Texas Utilities (revamped) Chevron Chrysler Cinergy American Electric Power Xerox IBM NRG Energy Bank of America

Companies are set to cash in on green technologies. For example, • • • • •

GE Wind Evergreen Solar (PV) Entergy (nuclear power) Bechtel (IGCC coal plants) Wheelabrator (landfill gas)

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Philips Electronics (CFL lighting) Archer Daniels Midland (ethanol & biodiesel) Johnson Controls (energy management) Magna International (lightweight auto parts) Southwestern Energy (natural gas).

Meanwhile, the insurance industry has begun to act. • Re-insurers - Lloyd’s of London, Swiss Re, and Munich Re look to cut their losses by urging governments to mitigate climate change. • Direct insurers - like Allstate, State Farm, MetLife, Hartford - are cutting back coverage in vulnerable areas, such as Florida. • Nebraska insurance commissioners require planning for drought risk. • Large investors are pushing many companies to disclose their climate-related risks to shareholders. • The investors include Merrill Lynch, Dreyfus, the California Retirement System, and the Investor Network on Climate Risk ($3 Trillion in managed assets). Companies pushed include GM, Ford, Dominion Resources and ExxonMobil. PV = photovoltaic.

IGCC = integrated gasified combined cycle.

CFL = compact fluorescent light.

* Trucks, airlines, railroads, buses, pipelines, ships

US CO2 Emissions, by Use

Other Transportatio n

Gas & Oil for . Electricity 7%

• Cars & Other Personal Transportatio n

Industry 17% Coal for Electricity . 33% Home Heat . 6%.

Commercial Buildings 3%

2005: USDOE - EIA (US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration)

Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity (with a carbon cap) & personal transportation.

US CO2 by Source

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US Electricity, 2006 4.06 Trillion kWh Wood 1.0%

US DOE ­ EIA

Hydro 7%

Natural Gas 21%

Nuclear 19% Wind .63%*

Oil 1.6%

Other .

Waste .59% Geothermal .37%

Solar .01% Coal 49%

* Wind: 0.82% for 1st 6 months of 2007

US MWh by Source

Solutions - Electricity • Price it right retail, for everyone: low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons. • Coal: Use less. Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process. Store the liquid CO2 far underground. There’s room for over 100 years of output.

• Natural Gas & Oil follow loads up & down all day, but are getting expensive. Store energy to follow loads in water uphill, batteries, flywheels, compressed air, hydrogen.

• Wind - Resource easily exceeds total use, esp. on US Plains & NC-MA coast. Growing 30%/year, it’s now cheaper than coal in many places. 1.2% of US MW

• Solar - Resource dwarfs total use.

Load shape matches cooling needs well.

Growing 30%/yr. PV costs 30¢/kWh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢. Most is used overseas.

• Nuclear - new plants in China, India, US Southeast. • Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle.

Pump water uphill at night.

More forest fires limit growth.

• Geothermal - big potential in US West, Ring of Fire, Italy.

Make hydrogen at night.

Solutions - Personal Vehicles US cars get 23 mpg. Pickups, vans & SUVs get 16. Average 20. Detroit is now nearly bankrupt. Toyota has begun to outsell Ford (in the US) & GM (around the world). . Hybrid sales are soaring. Up to 56 mpg New cars average 44 mpg in Europe, 45 in Japan. To cut US vehicle CO2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. . GM already did it in Europe. Lighten up, downsize, don’t over-power engines.

HOW? . Ditch SUVs..

Use 5-speeds, Hybrid-Electric, Diesel, Regenerative Braking.

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Use pickup trucks & vans only for work that requires them. . Store wind on the road with plug-in hybrids. Charge them up at night.

Solutions - Other Transportation • Fuels - Cut CO2 emissions further with low-carbon fuels. – Save ethanol & biodiesel for airplanes, ships & trucking. – Get ethanol from sugar cane (energy out / in ratio = 8:1). Use cellulose? BUT corn ethanol’s ratio is only 0.8:1, up to 1.7:1. US corn prices rose 75% in 2 years. Wheat rose 90% this year, soybeans 40%. Biodiesel & prairie grass ratio estimates = 0.7:1, up to 6:1. Better microbes?

Hydrogen is extremely tricky to use for transportation. • Trains, Boats, and Planes Use high-speed maglev railroads (RRs) for passengers. Shift long distance freight from trucks to electric RRs. Shift medium-haul (150 - 800 miles) passengers from airplanes to maglev RRs (faster than TGV, bullet trains). – Big cargo ships use biodiesel & dual 2 MW wind turbines.

Solutions - Efficient Buildings + • At Home

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Use ground source heat pumps.

Better lights - compact fluorescents (CFLs) & LEDs. Turn off un-used lights. Energy Star appliances - front load clothes washers, refrigerators, air conditioners Insulation - high R-value in walls & ceiling, honeycomb window shades, caulking Low flow showerheads, microwave ovens, trees, awnings, clotheslines, solar roofs

• Commercial

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Use ground source heat pumps.

Don’t over-light. Use day-lighting, occupancy sensors, reflectors. Use LCD Energy Star computers. Ventilate more with Variable Speed Drives.

Use free cooling (open intakes to night air). Green roofs, solar roofs Make ice at night. Melt it during the day - for cold water to cool buildings.

• Industrial

- Energy $ impact the bottom line. Check % IRRs.

Efficiency is generally good already. Facility energy managers do their jobs. Case-specific process changes as energy prices rise. Use more cogeneration.

Solutions - Personal Make your home & office efficient. Don’t over-size a house. Drive an efficient car. Don’t super size a vehicle. Don’t drive much over 55 mph. Combine errands. Keep tire psi up. Walk. (Be healthy!) Park farther away. Carpool. Use bus, RR. Bicycle.

Buy things that last. Fix them when they break. Eat less meat. 1 calorie of beef = 7-10 of grain. It’s healthier! Reduce, re-use, recycle. Minimize packaging. Use cloth bags.

“We are crossing natural thresholds that we cannot see and violating deadlines that we do not recognize. These deadlines, determined by nature, are not politically negotiable.” Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute - October 2, 2007 .

With business as usual emissions, climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization, in the lifetime of today's children. If we take action today, it may not be too late. The Stakes

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WRITE to CONGRESS. www.senate.gov US Senate, DC 20510 202-224-3121

www.house.gov US House, DC 20515 202-225-3121

Find your people at www.house.gov/writerep/ or www.visi.com/juan/congress/.

Ask for a carbon cap, falling steadily to 20% of today’s level by 2050. Pass this show on to your friends & relatives. Urge them to seek a declining carbon cap.

Cut your own carbon use. Cut your coal-electric use. Cut your gasoline use. Contact

Questions?

Dr. Gene Fry for more details, citations & references. [email protected] http://web.mac.com/gene.fry/iWeb/Global/Warming.html

Mini-References •

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% greenhouse effect by gas - IPCC; www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/#more-142 CO2 levels - 1958-2005 - Keeling et al., 2005; 1740-1960, see e.g., IPCC CO2 un-dissolves as H2O warms: HS chemistry text; CH4 source: http://www.radix.net/~bobg/faqs/scq.methane.html UCS study for climate change analogies is at www.climatechoices.org/ne/. 440 million MW warming = area of Earth x 0.85 W/m2 (Hansen 2005); 0.6°C “in the pipeline” - Hansen 2005 Temperature increases, land surface & land-ocean - NASA GISS Ocean heat gain: 0.35°C µ heat gain in top 300 m x volume. world Btu ~ US 2006 Btu x 50 yr x 4 (US = 25%) Intense category 4/5 hurricanes - Webster 2005; hurricane energy tracks SSTs - Emanuel 2005 Greenland km3 icecap melting - Rignot 2006; Arctic ice area - www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm – Arctic Ocean icepack volume & thickness - Rothrock 1999, Yu 2004. (USS Nautilus data, 1960s) Permafrost carbon 3-5 x the C humans ever emitted - e.g., Schurr 2006; shrank 7% from 1900 - IPCC Feb. 2007. Ocean CO2 uptake fell 7%, 50% - Behrenfeld, Nature 2006 & Schuster 2007, news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7053903.stm Desert belts expanded 70 miles. - Reichler 2006 US forest fires up 6 x since 1986 - Westerling 2006. Siberian fires: Tchebakova 2006. Canada fires: Stock 2006 Falling water tables, disappearing lakes & rivers - Lester Brown, Plan B v 2.0, 2006 Ocean pH - Turley 2005; plankton CO2 intake down 7% with warming - Behrenfeld 2006 33% > H2O in air at = relative humidity - Rind 1990 – 10% > rain needed to offset 1°C warmer - M. Parry, UCS movie, ~ 2005 Tree biomass falls 40%: Overpeck & Bartlein, 1989 (in Rind 1990). Simulation: species not allowed to migrate north. Browning of Earth began in 1994 - I. Fung at Berkeley, 2005 Crop yields fall 30-50% - Peart et al., Ritchie et al., Rosenzweig et al., all 1989 (in Rind et al., 1990) CO2 fertilization in greenhouses - e.g., Wittwer 1992; Idso 2001 Photosynthesis above 35°C & crop yields fall 8-58% with 1°C or 2°C rise - Lester Brown, Plan B v 2.0, 2006 Grain: production: FAO, Worldwatch Institute; Use: Climate Change Futures: Swiss Re & Harvard S Public Health Damages for 2°, 3°, 4°C - most from Stern Review, 2006. Wars: CNA, 2007. Oxygen: www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm $74 trillion damages - Watkiss 2006; $20 trillion/year - Kemfert 2005 – Damages 11-14% GWP / yr & $85, $30, $20/T CO2 - all Stern Review 2006 Green Companies - Smith Barney/Citigroup (2007); CERES (2005, ‘06); Carbon reduction costs - Stern Review 2006 Coal oxyfuel process, 100 years of emissions storable underground - Metz et al. (IPCC) 2005; Herzog, MIT, 2006 US wind MW & kWh % - USDOE-EIA; Wind & solar growth %/yr - e.g., USDOE (distributed energy - wind tech)