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Natural Gas DA Index Natural Gas DA Index................................................1 1NC Natural Gas DA (1/3).........................................3 1NC Natural Gas DA (2/3).........................................4 1NC Natural Gas DA (3/3).........................................5 Ext. Demand High......................................................6 Brink...........................................................................7 Link- General (1/2)....................................................8 Link- General (2/2)....................................................9 Link- Solar...............................................................10 Link- RPS.................................................................11 Link- Wind...............................................................12 Link- Biofuels..........................................................13 Link- Nuclear Power (1/2).......................................14 Link- Nuclear Power (2/2).......................................15 Ext. US Key to Qatar...............................................16 Ext. LNG Key to US/Qatar......................................17 Heg ! 2NC................................................................18 Ext. Heg Internal Link.............................................19 Middle East War !....................................................20 Ext. Middle East War Internal Link.........................21 AT: Qatar Corrupt/Econ not liberalized...................22 AT: Domestic Reserves Solve..................................23 AT: Offshore Drilling Solves...................................24 AT: Canada Solves...................................................25 US-Q atar Relations Strong......................................26 Dependence ! 2NC...................................................27 Econ ! 2NC...............................................................28 AT: Impact Turns......................................................29 AT: Natural Gas Unsafe...........................................30 AT: Terrorism Turn...................................................31 AT: Hurst Turns........................................................32 AT: Iran LNG...........................................................33 Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (1/2). .34 Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (2/2). .35 No Link- No Tradeoff..............................................36 No Link- Alt Cause..................................................37

SDI 2008 WHAM! Aff ! T/- Economy Module......................................38 Ext. Economy ! T/ Internal Link..............................39 Aff ! T/- Terrorism Module......................................40 Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (1/2).....................41 Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (2/2).....................42 Aff ! T/ Safety..........................................................43 Aff ! T/- Environment Module.................................44 Ext. Environment ! T/ Internal Link........................45 Aff AT: Levene.........................................................46 AT: The Coastguard can Solve.................................47

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1NC Natural Gas DA (1/3) A. US demand for natural gas is high and increasing causing higher prices The Associated Press State & Local Wire, Newswire, June 3, 2008, lexis, Natural gas reps. tell Mo. regulators demand causing spikes, nna Natural gas and utility industry representatives tell regulators increasing demand could fuel higher energy prices. Chris McGill with the American Gas Association says there are now two peak periods for natural gas demand. There's the traditional winter heating season, and one in summer because more electrical plants use natural gas. Besides demand, the trade groups point to weaker U.S. currency, increasing foreign competition for liquefied natural gas and hurricanes as contributors for higher prices. The Public Service Commission last week allowed three utilities to charge an extra $100 to $200 for natural gas. The bump can be adjusted as gas prices change, and it factors only market prices and doesn't account for profits.

B. This demand is met by increasing imports of LNG for Qatar- the US is the primary market for Qatar The Hindustan Times“Qatar aims to raise LNG output to 77 million tons in two years,” 4-9-2008, Proquest Nicosia, April 9 -- Qatar has aimed to raise production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from 31 million tons a year to 77 million tons a year by 2010, the country's Minister of State for Energy and Industry Affairs, Dr. Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada, told the 16th Annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in Doha. Qatar is already the biggest LNG exporter in the world and with a number of huge projects that will cost billions of dollars, mainly the two LNG processing trains - where gas is liquefied - it will add by the end of the year another 8 million tons to its LNG output. Recently, a four billion dollars deal to build natural gas processing facilities in Qatar was reached between Qatar Liquefied Gas Co. and Japan's Chiyoda. The two companies agreed to build two LNG processing trains to the Qatargas-3 and Qatargas-4 projects in the Ras Laffan Industrial city. The United States will be a primary market for the gas produced by the new units. America will cover 30 per cent of its total LNG needs from Qatar. As from next year, it will buy more than 15 million tons of LNG a year from Qatar. The country's first markets were Japan and Korea. India followed soon. The country's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah told journalists that Qatar's investment in the hydrocarbon sector would exceed 60 billion dollars.

C. Renewable energy reduces natural gas demand from Qatar Union of Concerned Scientists, 8/27/07, “Clean Energy”, AB, http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/clean_energy_policies/the-renewable-electricity-standard.html#6 Much of the U.S. energy system—power plants, dams, refineries, pipelines, tankers, and the electricity transmission grid—presents significant safety and security risks. Renewable energy facilities are small, geographically dispersed, and do not require transporting or storing radioactive or combustible materials. Increasing renewable energy would reduce the number of vulnerable facilities over time. Renewable energy can also reduce the need to expand imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG imports from non-NAFTA countries, including some OPEC members—Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, and Qatar —are projected to grow from less than 1 percent of gas supply today to up to 12 percent by 2010. Renewable fuels can also displace oil. Among the experts calling for a federal RES to increase energy security are James Woolsey, former head of the CIA, Robert McFarland, former national security advisor to President Reagan, and Admiral Thomas Moorer, former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

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1NC Natural Gas DA (2/3) D. US LNG imports key to maintaining US-Qatar relations. Michael Klare – professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2006 The Nation, “The Geopolitics of Natural Gas,” 1-23-2006, www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Oil_watch/Geopolitics_NaturalGas.html) // JMP The rising worldwide demand for gas is also influencing relations between the major consuming nations and their principal suppliers. A key factor in the geopolitics of natural gas is the heavy concentration of reserves in a relatively small number of producing countries. All told, the top ten gas producers harbor 76 percent of the world's proven reserves, while the top five-Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates-hold nearly 67 percent. This means, of course, that these countries are in a very strong position to control the global flow of gas and to influence market forces.Russia, which owns 26.7 percent of the world's proven gas supplies (compared with 2.9 percent for the United States), will play a dominant role in the energy field for many decades to come. Although the United States and Russia produced similar amounts of gas in 2004-05 (543 billion and 589 billion cubic meters, respectively), America's output was about 10 percent of its total reserves while Russia's output was only 1 percent. Russia already supplies a large share of Europe's natural gas, and when new pipelines are constructed, it will be capable of supplying vast amounts to China, Korea and Japan-even the United States, eventually. Until now, the Russians have been very careful to avoid giving the impression that they intend to exploit their dominant position in Europe for political advantage. Nevertheless, Moscow has been accused of engaging in such practices in the past: In December 2000, for example, it temporarily suspended gas deliveries to Georgia in a move perceived by many Georgians as punishment for the failure of its leaders, notably then-President Eduard Shevardnadze, to defer to Russia on key regional issues. The current blockage of gas to Ukraine can be seen as another instance of the same tactic. Officials of the European Union are worried about the growing role of Gazprom in the delivery of natural gas to Europe. At present, Gazprom supplies approximately 40 percent of Europe's natural gas, and its share is likely to grow as gas fields in the North Sea are exhausted. Fearing that Moscow may someday exploit its role as Europe's major gas supplier to wring political concessions from its customers, EU officials have called for greater diversity in the procurement of energy-so far, to little avail. Iran is also a major producer of natural gas. Under increasing diplomatic pressure from the Bush Administration to halt its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons, Tehran has been eager to establish joint production and export projects with friendly nations in Europe and Asia. In the past two years alone, it has signed several multibillion-dollar deals with companies from France, Italy, Norway, Turkey, Japan and India for joint development of offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf and the construction of new pipelines to Europe and Asia. Capping this drive was the signing in October 2004 of a $100 billion, twenty-five-year contract with the China National Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) for the joint production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which will ultimately go to China. While all this makes perfect commercial sense, given Iran's need for foreign partners in the management of these ambitious projects, it is safe to assume Tehran is also seeking to increase the number of allies it can turn to in case of a showdown with the United States. Qatar has

tacked the opposite way, using its huge gas reserves to establish close ties with Washington and to insinuate itself beneath the US defense umbrella. Under a $10 billion, twenty-five-year agreement signed in 2003, ExxonMobil will build the world's largest LNG shipping facility in Qatar. Much of the resulting liquid will go to the United States to be converted back into gas. This will entail the construction of new LNG terminals at ports on the US Gulf Coast, a major undertaking. Like Qatar's, many of the world's largest deposits of natural gas are located far from the areas where demand is greatest. The most efficient and economical way to transport gas to distant markets is by pipeline. As a result, vast natural gas pipeline networks have been built in North America, Europe and the former Soviet Union, and many more such conduits are under construction. These networks are easiest to construct on land or in relatively shallow, enclosed bodies of water like the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, both of which are now traversed by gas pipelines.

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1NC Natural Gas DA (3/3) E. US/Qatar relations are key to counterterrorism efforts Christopher Blanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, 1/24/08 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdf The U.S.Department of State has characterized Qatar’s counterterrorism support since September 11, 2001 as “significant.”41 Qatar’s Combating Terrorism Law, passed in March 2004, established definitions of terrorism and terrorist financing and broadened the government’s power to detect and prevent terrorist threats and to investigate and prosecute terrorists and their supporters. Qatar also established the Qatar Authority for Charitable Activities (QACA) in March 2004 to monitor the activities of all Qatari domestic and international charitable organizations, including prominent organizations such as the Qatar Charitable Society and the Shaikh Eid bin Mohammed Al Thani Charitable Association. All international financial charity transfers and project verification fall within the jurisdiction of the new QACA. 42 However, Article 24 of the law establishing the Authority allows the Emir to grant an exemption from QACA oversight to any organization at any time. Qatar’s central bank operates a financial intelligence unit (FIU) which monitors activity Qatar’s banking system and serves as a liaison office to similar units in the United States and around the world.

F.Extinction Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1 2004 , Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.hml A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and this is far from certain -- the weapons used are less harmful than those used then, Japan, at the time, with no knowledge of nuclear technology, had no choice but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret for nobody. So far, except for the two bombs dropped on Japan, nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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Ext. Demand High Demand for natural gas has increased and gained a more prominent role on the international market. Steven Gabriel, Weekly Policy Commentary, Why Natural Gas Matters in Today’s Energy and Environmental Picture; March 10, 2008; LC http://www.rff.org/Publications/WPC/Pages/03_10_08_Natural_Gas_Gabriel.aspx In recent years, the environmental and economic value of natural gas has soared, making it an everimportant fuel for power generation, industrial operations, as well as residential and commercial use. Natural gas holds a favorable environmental position relative to coal and oil, all the more important given the current move towards a low-carbon world. In the United States, demand for natural gas has risen over 33 percent in the period 1986-2006, driven by a multitude of factors. In Europe, geopolitical issues are more pronounced since almost half of the European Union's imports of gas come from Russia. Additionally, there is now competition in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from exporting countries. The overall picture then is one of a global competition for this important fuel source. Two other trends have emerged over the last 20 years that have helped to spur both domestic and international natural gas consumption. The first was the enactment of regulations geared at liberalizing gas markets. In the United States, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission required interstate pipeline companies to unbundle, or separate, their sales and transportation services in order to promote competition and mitigate their potential market power. Similar legislative measures were enacted in the European Union that promoted third-party access and legal splitting of gas sellers and network operators. The second trend is the rise of liquefied natural gas trading. LNG is the liquid form of this fuel, achieved by cooling the normally gaseous substance to about -260 degrees (Fahrenheit) and removing certain components. By using specialized cryogenic tankers, natural gas can be moved much more easily around the world, but this process is costly. While there is not yet a common "world gas price" as in the case with oil, there are some very large producers. Nearly 75 percent of the world's natural gas reserves can be found in the Middle East and Eurasia, with reserves in Russia, Iran, and Qatar combined accounting for nearly 60 percent of this total, resulting in geopolitical market power. For example, the influence of Russian production and control of key pipelines was felt in Ukraine and Western Europe in the winter of 2005-2006, when Russia temporarily cut off gas to Ukraine over a price dispute, which affected downstream Europe. In the United States, dependence on natural gas from other countries has been rising over time. In the last 20 years, imports of natural gas as a percentage of total consumption have risen from just over 4 percent in 1986 to almost 16 percent in 2006. Colleagues and I have created detailed game theoretic models of market equilibria in which producers (or their marketing arms) may withhold production in order to achieve higher profits. The resulting simulations indicate that market power can raise natural gas prices considerably. Compared with an assumption of perfectly competitive producers in Europe (that is, producers not having the ability to influence market prices by withholding production), the effects of market power raise European prices by some 27 percent. This is further exacerbated if a major supplier such as Algeria is shut down or gas from Russia is curtailed through a transit country such as Ukraine.

Demand for natural gas is high and rising. Diane Lindquist, staff writer, 15 Jul 2008, The San Diego Union Tribune, “A liquid diet”, Lexis Nexis, AB Last week, when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that natural gas shortfalls are a serious problem that could erode the nation's economic recovery, he also endorsed projects such as the liquefied natural gas receiving terminals proposed for Baja California. Shrinking supplies, Greenspan said, mean the United States must build LNG receiving terminals to create a safety valve that would help stabilize gas prices. "Without the flexibility such facilities will impart, imbalances in supply and demand must inevitably engender price volatility," he said. If the Mexican projects get built, they will be the first liquefied natural gas, or LNG, receiving terminals on North America's West Coast. As such, they would add a new dynamic to global trading of the super-cooled, ocean-borne fuel just as LNG is undergoing a worldwide resurgence. Other developed countries, in addition to the United States, are seeing natural gas supplies diminish. That, along with economic growth and environmental concerns about coal and oil, is pushing greater demand for LNG.

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Brink Now is the key time for the gas market Global Power Report, December 21, 2006, FINANCE; Pg. 4 LC http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4157357044 &format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4157357047&cisb=22_T41573570 46&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8146&docNo=1 While the 2007 outlook for the US power and natural gas industry is "generally stable," the sector faces "escalating credit challenges" in the intermediate to long term as "capital markets will eventually turn less accommodating," Fitch Ratings said December 18. The rating agency based its stable outlook for next year on the fact that natural gas and wholesale power prices, while below recent highs, remain at "elevated levels," lending favorable credit implications to many companies in the sector, particularly merchant generators and gas gathering, processing and storage companies. Fitch, however, added that high energy prices combined with other "rising cost elements, form a challenging environment for the regulated gas and electric utility sector." Fitch said that while some utilities such as public power utilities, gas distributors, and most traditionally regulated integrated investor-owned electric utilities are better positioned to recover rising costs, other IOUs face "a more contentious regulatory and political environment." In the intermediate or longer term, Fitch said it expects the power and gas sector will eventually face escalating credit challenges. "Capital market conditions that are currently positive for this sector will eventually turn less accommodating. Companies that form growth plans and financial structures without considering the potential for a shift in the capital market environment or downturn in valuations can run into financial problems down the road," Fitch said, adding that "easy and liberal financing has accelerated merger and acquisition activity, and it would be unsurprising to witness some fallout from the lofty prices being paid for power and gas assets and/or companies." In addition, Fitch cautioned there is "a possibility that sustained higher prices for gas and electric power and public programs for demand management will eventually lead to reduced consumption, at the same time that costly new facilities come online."

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Link- General (1/2) Energy diversification reduces demand of natural gas Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

With the recent run-up in natural gas prices, and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices for at least the mid-term future, a growing number of voices are calling for increased diversification of electricity supplies. Such diversification holds the prospect of directly reducing our dependence on a fuel whose costs are highly uncertain, thereby hedging the risk of natural gas price volatility and escalation. In addition, as I will describe in a moment, by reducing natural gas demand, increased diversification away from gas-fired generation can indirectly suppress natural gas prices.

Renewable Energy will have a large impact on natural gas UCS 05 (Union of Concerned Scientists, "Renewable Energy Can Help Ease Natural Gas Crunch", August 26, Implementing effective energy efficiency measures can be the fastest and most cost effective approach to balancing gas demand and supply, with renewable energy providing a critical mid-term to long-term supplement. A recent study by the American Council for An Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) confirms that modest near-term reductions in gas and electricity consumption through efficiency measures coupled with increased renewable energy use could significantly impact natural gas prices and availability, while saving consumers more than $75 billion on their natural gas bills over the next five years.4 The model used in ACEEE’s analysis also demonstrates that the near-term natural gas price response and consumer savings from increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy could be much greater than projected in EIA’s NEMS model.

Renewable energy will have an impact on natural gas UCS 05 (Union of Concerned Scientists, "Renewable Energy Can Help Ease Natural Gas Crunch", August 26, Because increased renewable energy use reduces the demand for natural gas, and creates new competitors to traditional power plants, increasing renewable energy would reduce natural gas prices. Achieving the 10 percent RES could reduce gas prices by 1.9 percent ($0.12 per million Btu) compared to business as usual in 2020. A 20 percent standard could reduce natural gas prices by as much as $0.25/million Btu, resulting in cumulative gas bill savings of $15 billion (Fig. 5) through 2025. Under current EIA forecasts, renewable energy begins to displace new coal-fired power plants (which become economically competitive) instead of natural gas facilities after 2020. As a result, renewable energy has less of an impact on natural gas prices in these later years, but it continues to provide total energy bill savings to consumers from lower electricity prices, and even greater air pollution reduction benefits.

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Link- General (2/2) Alternative energy will reduce demand by 10% Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

The level of demand and price reduction depends in large part on the level of renewable energy and energy efficiency deployment. Those studies that review the impact of more aggressive national renewable energy deployment efforts have found that such efforts could reduce demand for natural gas by as much as 3 to 4 quadrillion BTU (Quads) a year by 2020, or 10% of projected national gas consumption, with a mean reduction across studies of approximately 2 Quads (7%). Less aggressive levels of national deployment are found to reduce gas consumption by as much as 1.5 Quads, or 4% of total projected demand in 2020, with a mean reduction across studies of 0.7 Quads (2%).

Energy efficiency will reduce LNG use Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

As shown in our full report, these studies consistently find that renewable energy and energy efficiency deployment will reduce natural gas demand, thereby putting downward pressure on gas prices.

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Link- Solar Solar energy reduces use of natural gas James Mason, 12/17/07, Scientific American, “A Solar Grand Plan”, AB, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=asolar-grand-plan The federal government would have to invest more than $400 billion over the next 40 years to complete the 2050 plan. That investment is substantial, but the payoff is greater. Solar plants consume little or no fuel, saving billions of dollars year after year. The infrastructure would displace 300 large coal-fired power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the fuels they consume. The plan would effectively eliminate all imported oil, fundamentally cutting U.S. trade deficits and easing political tension in the Middle East and elsewhere. Because solar technologies are almost pollution-free, the plan would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by 1.7 billion tons a year, and another 1.9 billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be displaced by plug-in hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. In 2050 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would be 62 percent below 2005 levels, putting a major brake on global warming.

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Link- RPS RPS would significantly reduce natural gas usage Foster Electric Report, 9-19-2007, “EIA FINDS THAT FEDERAL 25% RPS WOULD CAUSE DRAMATIC SHIFT AWAY FROM COAL GENERATION,” SS, Lexis. Meeting twin 25% national renewable portfolio standards for electricity and transportation fuels by 2025 would require nearly a 13-fold increase from 2005 levels in non-hydropower renewable generation, and cause a "dramatic shift" away from coal and natural gas generation, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report released Sept. 11. "This analysis suggests that, to comply with the twin 25by-25 mandates, it will be necessary for electricity and motor fuel producers to dramatically increase their use of technologies that play a relatively small role in today's energy markets," the report said. For instance, EIA said the 13-fold increase in renewable electricity generation from 2005 levels would be accompanied by more than a 12-fold increase in the amount of ethanol and biodiesel needed.

RPS would remove the need for natural gas. Jim Madden, Jim Madden is the president of Chesapeake Renewable Energy, Times Dispatch guest columnist, 1/17/2007 , “Support for RPS Legislation Is a Stand for Clean Energy”, jlk, http://www.chesapeakeclimate.org/news/news_detail.cfm?id=247 Virginia has an important choice to make, but it's a no-brainer. The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) bill sponsored by Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple would require that all retail electric utilities in Virginia obtain 12 percent of their electricity from renewable sources -- such as wind, solar, and biomass -- by 2020. It would also require these utilities to enact energy efficiency programs to save an additional 5 percent of electric usage by 2020. These limits are attainable and implementing them is unlikely to increase our electric rates. If the General Assembly passes this bill, Virginia would join 23 other states in taking a stand in support of clean energy. Every megawatt-hour of clean energy produced removes the need to generate a megawatt-hour of electricity from other sources, such as coal and natural gas.

More evidence EIA Special Report, 10-11-2001, eia.doe.gov, “Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts,”SS. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/epp/chapter_4.html The imposition of new, more stringent emission caps on electricity power plants would affect coal consumption, national and regional production, and prices. (Figure 22) In general, the revised caps and the consequent need for introducing control technologies and other measures necessary to achieve compliance with the caps would raise the cost of electricity from coal-fired power plants relative to those using other fuels, encourage fuel switching, and cause the level of coal-fired generation to be reduced. The impacts on national coal industry production levels are projected to be negative relative to the reference case. The overall impacts on coal production depend on both the extent of the projected decline in coal demand and the types of coal expected to be used in the future mix of coal-burning capacity. In the RPS cases, all the nonhydroelectric renewable generation technologies are projected to increase their market share of total generation, and the electricity generation shares of both coal and natural gas are projected to be lower than in the reference case. The effective price premium associated with using renewable fuels declines over time relative to nonrenewable sources, because the cost of the RPS credits that nonrenewable electricity generators must hold increases as the renewable share target becomes more stringent. In the RPS 10% case, the projected impacts on coal markets fall roughly midway between the results in the reference and RPS 20% cases.

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Link- Wind Wind trades off with natural gas Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. 01-07, June, 2007 A similar study conducted by the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) found that renewable generators fueled by wind and landfill gases offered the cheapest forms of electricity—2.8 and 3.0 cents per kWh, respectively—compared to all other generators including advanced coal, natural gas, and nuclear reactors.

Wind power could viably replace natural gas Steve Hargreaves, 7/22/08, CNN Money, “Wind Power: A reality check”, AB, http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/pickens_wind/?postversion=2008072214 Despite these challenges, wind power's ability to produce 21% of the nation's electricity needs isn't out of the question. While wind currently only makes up 0.8% of the country's total electricity production, and would need to grow well over 20 times that to replace gas, it's worth noting that wind capacity has increased 12 fold since 1990, according to EIA.

Wind power could replace natural gas Loren Steffy, Reporter, 7/10/08, Houston Chronicle, “Pickens' plan is bold — too bad it won't work”, AB, http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5882292.html Pickens argued that wind technology will improve as more farms are built, and as commodity prices rise, it will become a cost-effective power source. "As it moves in, the natural gas will move out," he said. "The price of natural gas will still be better for vehicles and still be cheaper than foreign oil."

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Link- Biofuels Biofuels replace natural gas demand Jerrold E Rudie, staff writer, 7/22/08, red Orbit, “integrated biomass technologies”, AB, http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1488981/integrated_biomass_technologies/ One of the primary principles of IBT is the conversion of biomass to heat or electrical energy. It is usually less expensive to generate bio-based electrical energy locally and distribute it regionally than to transport the biomass to larger regional electrical generation facilities. The need for energy, especially bio-based energy, is growing. Recent interest in distributed small- and medium-scale electrical generation from biomass and woody waste provides new opportunities to use low- or currently no-value biomass from sorting yard operations. The forest products industry in the United States uses almost 100 million dry tons of wood waste annually for energy. A number of companies have begun, or are contemplating, installation of wood waste or hog fuel gasifiers. The producer gas resulting from this thermal decomposition can replace natural gas or be further processed to produce syngas (synthesis gas), used to manufacture other chemicals such as methanol, higher alcohols, or hydrocarbons. All logging operations leave forest residues that are unsuitable or too small to meet sawmill, pulp mill, panel product mill, or pole plant raw material feedstock specifications. Targeting these biomass residues for their optimal economic use will maximize the value of aJl currently nonmerchantable material. A number of direct conversion biomass-to- energy combustors (i.e., electrical generators) are being re- engineered to make them economical for smaller scale and even semiportable operations. These smaller biomass-to-energy units are now available and becoming profitable alternatives to using fossil fuels. As smaller units have become available, they are being adopted by some rural communities and small businesses. Depending on size and design of the combustors, the biofuels used can be shredded material, hammer milled material, chips or pellets, but direct conversion of biomass to energy requires knowing optimal fuel sizes, moisture levels, and energy contents. In addition, some of the biofuels can be processed into pellets to meet a growing home-use market for wood pellets.

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Link- Nuclear Power (1/2) Nuclear energy trades off with natural gas Nicholas Loris, reporter, 7/2/8, The Heritage Foundation, “Nuclear Energy: What We Can Learn From Other Nations”, AB, http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/wm1977.cfm U.S. electricity demand is projected to increase up to 40 percent by 2030, and other countries are projecting similar increases.[4] The rapid industrial development of both China and India is already placing great pressure on global energy supplies. And because energy sources, especially fossil fuels, are global commodities, growing demand in one part of the world affects the global economy. As a result, higher prices and tightened supply have some nations, such as China, experiencing power shortages.[5] While the U.S. has, for the most part, been able to keep the lights on, with the price of gas breaking the $4 barrier and natural gas prices increasing, every American knows full well the pain of increasing global energy demand. Nuclear energy can help meet this growing demand. Most directly, nuclear energy can be used to generate electricity. If that demand were not met by nuclear power, then it would likely be met with natural gas. This would put additional pressure on natural gas reserves, driving up the price for electricity as well as all the other goods that use natural gas in their production.

Nuclear energy reduces natural gas dependence Ronnie Dubs, staff reporter, St. Petersburg Times, “WE WILL NEED POWER FROM NUCLEAR PLANTS”, AB, Lexis Nexis The first thing we need to seriously consider is the avoidance of new power generation capacity using natural gas. Although natural gas is the energy resource of choice for new power generation plants, we are now facing a downturn in domestic natural gas production capacity. Energy companies are drilling more holes than ever but they have been unable to increase domestic production of natural gas for a number of years. The addition of nuclear power plants will mitigate our dependence on costly domestic natural gas and imported LNG to replace domestic production.

Nuclear energy reduces natural gas demand. The Nuclear Energy Institute, 1/24/05, “Nuclear Energy’s Role in Reducing Demand for Natural Gas Through Diversification of Energy Sources Used for Electricity Generation”, AB, http://www.nei.org/filefolder/white_paper_reducing_demand_natural_gas_1-24-05.pdf What nuclear energy did for U.S. electricity supply in the 1970s and 1980s with respect to oil, it can do for natural gas over the next 10-20 years. To produce the same amount of yearly electricity as a single 1,000-megawatt nuclear plant operating at 90 percent capacity factor requires approximately 54 billion cubic feet of natural gas. This is equivalent to the usage of approximately 660,000 residential gas customers, or about one percent of the total residential customers in the U.S. Clearly, improving nuclear production—through efficiency gains and building new nuclear power plants—relieves pressure on the natural gas supply and enhances the nation’s energy diversity.

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Link- Nuclear Power (2/2) Nuclear energy decreases natural gas prices. Barbara Shook, Houston Bureau Chief, Energy Intelligence Dec. 10, 2007, Natural Gas Week, “Power for Oil Sands Projects Might be From Nukes, NatGas,” Lexis VF

Alberta 's massive oil sands production and upgrading facilities require enormous quantities of electricity to power the giant shovels and other equipment and generate steam and hydrogen for converting the bitumensand mixture into synthetic crude or finished products. With the exception of some coal-fired electricity purchased off the grid, natural gas fuels the cogeneration plants that serve the projects. Natural gas production in Alberta is declining as the conventional fields that have been the life blood of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin go into permanent decline. Western Canada lacks the extensive unconventional resources that have allowed US production to remain relatively flat for the past three decades. Calgary-based investment bank FirstEnergy Capital predicts that Alberta 's gas output could fall by 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day by the end of 2008 from current production of about 16.4 Bcf/d, followed by a similar supply drop in 2009. The Nexen-OptiCan Long Lake project is dealing with the challenge by constructing a gasifier that will convert asphaltenes, a byproduct extracted from bitumen, as fuel. Other project developers are considering gasifiers

that would burn another waste product, petroleum coke, in place of natural gas. One proposed solution gaining a lot of attention recently is nuclear energy. On the surface, nuclear power seems to be an attractive option. Natural gas prices are higher than anticipated and likely to become more expensive as supplies diminish. Uranium fuel has a fixed price for as long as 30 to 50 years, noted speakers at the Canadian Institute's Oil Sands conference. Nuclear plants also emit no carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas. Coal and heavy hydrocarbons produce large volumes of CO2. While natural gas yields lesser amounts, it still is a source.

Nuclear power would reduce natural gas demand Ryan Wiser, scientists and Policy Group at Lawrence, 2005 "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversificatio Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on Power Generation Resource Incentives & Diversity Standards" Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

Our report confirms that the natural-gas-price reductions projected by earlier modeling studies are consistent with economic theory. Increased renewable energy and energy efficiency will cause an inward shift in the natural gas demand curve, leading to lower natural gas prices than would have been realized under the higher-demand conditions. Similar natural gas price reductions would likely result from increased use of other non-natural-gas energy sources that displace natural gas consumption (e.g., coal, nuclear).

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Ext. US Key to Qatar US imports of LNG Are key to Qatar’s market TDS 08 “ECONOMY”, Qatar Asia, 6.06.08. http://www.traveldocs.com/qa/economy.htm Qatar's natural gas liquefaction facilities and related industries are located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, site of the world's largest LNG exports of more than 31 million metric tons per year. Qatar's heavy industrial base, located in Messaieed, includes a refinery with a 140,000 bpd capacity, a fertilizer plant for urea and ammonia, a steel plant, and a petrochemical plant, and several new petrochemical plants will be built in the coming years. All these industries use gas for fuel. Most are joint ventures between U.S., European, and Japanese firms and the state-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP). The U.S. is the major equipment supplier for Qatar's oil and gas industry, and U.S. companies are playing a major role in the development of the oil and gas sector and petrochemicals. The country's economic growth has been stunning. Qatar's nominal GDP, currently $63.8 billion, had recently been growing at an average of 15%, and the 2007 growth rate was 12.5%. Qatar's per capita GDP is $67,000, and projected to soon be the highest in the world. The Qatari Government's strategy is to utilize its wealth to generate more wealth by diversifying the economic base of the country beyond hydrocarbons.

US it the vital market for Qatar natural gas. Energy Bulletin, 4 (Hector Igbikiowubo, "2020 Scenario: OPEC May Be Replaced," 1-12-2004, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/145) // JMP It's 2020, and the energy ministers of the Organization of Gas-Exporting Countries, known as OGEC, the umbrella for the dozen or so nations which dominate the market, gather in Madrid for their annual get-together to determine production quotas and price levels for the new primary energy source that fuels the global economy , natural gas, or more specifically, liquefied natural gas, known as LNG. That scenario may seem somewhat fanciful right now, but the emergence of a partner, possibly even a successor, to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which has dominated the world"s energy market since the 1970s, is on the cards as the natural gas business, particularly the Gulf-based LNG sector, is set to expand into a global boom with the US as the dominant market. The worldwide shift toward LNG will bring in its wake profound political and economic changes in many parts of the world, providing a lifeline for the economies of some Gulf states whose oil production is sliding into decline as fields are exhausted. "The international trade in gas delivered by pipeline and tanker, will rival the scale and complexity of today's petroleum market," said Edmund O"Sullivan, editor-in- chief of the Middle East Economic Digest."The world gas price will then become as important to Middle East economies as the world oil price. Logic suggests that exporters will want to coordinate strategies to prevent a gas price collapse. Whisper it those who dare: an OPEC for gas may soon be on the world energy agenda," he added. In December, some of OPEC's most important member states shifted their attention from crude oil to LNG exports at a conference convened by the administration of the US President George W. Bush to boost US imports of the refrigerated fuel. The United States is without doubt the key market for LNG, currently accounting for one-quarter of the natural gas consumed in the world every day. The Americans are increasingly concerned about the security of their energy supplies, and have long sought to undermine OPEC's influence in the oil market. While OPEC largely controls global oil supplies and prices, the Bush administration would like to see competition blossom among LNG exporters. NonOPEC producers like Russia, Norway, Trinidad, Australia and Oman, are looking at LNG exports to generate new revenue. "It's in our interest to develop as many international sources as possible" for US imports of LNG, US Energy Secretary, Spencer Abraham, said at the conference in Washington. "LNG is clearly going to be a large factor in the world's future energy equation," he said.

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Ext. LNG Key to US/Qatar LNG is the vital internal link to US-Qatar relations. AME Info, 3 (AME Info is the ultimate Middle East business resource, "Is Doha the next Dubai? Qatar's billiondollar deals with big oil make it an economic heavyweight. Inside the Gulf's next energy superpower whose ambitions shadow those of Dubai," 12-3-2003, www.ameinfo.com/31790.html) // JMP In the space of four days in October, Qatar became an energy superpower. It signed natural gas megadeals with ExxonMobil and Shell worth $17 billion, and has other projects worth an estimated $20 billion with US and European energy giants in the pipeline. All this will make the tiny emirate OPEC's smallest oil producer - the world capital of the gas-to-liquids industry by 2010 and the single largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the United States, a huge energy market that is ready to undergo rapid and vast expansion in the coming years. Qatar, which has been assuming a more assertive role in Gulf affairs, is on target to become the world's biggest LNG exporter by 2010 with an annual output of 30 million tons and is pushing to raise production to 45 million tons a year. Current LNG production is 15 million tons a year, mainly to Japan, Spain and the US. Qatar's success in forging these new contractual connections, particularly with the United States, will provide it with the kind of stability and security that its neighbors can only dream about. It also gives the emirate a huge head start on the other Gulf producers, which are increasingly looking to gas as the energy and export-driver of the future. LNG - natural gas supercooled and condensed for transportation by ship - is viewed by Washington as vital to the long-term fuel supply. The ExxonMobil deal, worth $12 billion, is the centerpiece of these glittering prizes, but it has deep political implications as well. Qatar has emerged unscathed from the political strains the events of September 11th placed on the United States' relations with the Gulf states. It proved itself a trusted Arab ally through its support for US policy and military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, particularly by allowing the US Central Command to set up its operational headquarters in the emirate when other Gulf states refused. Centcom is a vital element in President George W. Bush's war against terrorism and the most active military command in the US defense establishment. According to the Texas-based security think tank Stratfor, this has meant that Doha has been given 'access to some top-shelf technology. In addition to de facto security guarantees that serve both countries' interests, and the economic benefits of having a few thousands soldiers kicking around their country, having Centcom in Doha gives Qatar a say in how, where and when US forces operate and policy is implemented - massively magnifying the small state's geopolitical punch.'

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Heg ! 2NC A. US/Qatar relations are key basing, power projection and hegemony Christopher Blanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, 1/24/08 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdf The Al Udeid airbase south of Doha, the Qatari capital, serves as a logistics, command, and basing hub for U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraqi. Nearby Camp As Sayliyah is the largest pre-positioning facility of U.S. military equipment in the world. Qatar invested over $1 billion to construct the Al Udeid air base during the 1990s: it did not have an air force of its own at the time. Qatar’s financing and construction of the state-of-the-art air force base at Al Udeid was widely interpreted to be a tacit invitation to deeper cooperation with U.S. military forces, and U.S. access to the base there was formalized in late 2000. In April 2003, the U.S. Combat Air Operations Center for the Middle East moved from Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia to Qatar’s Al Udeid. Qatar is contributing $400 million to U.S. efforts to upgrade and construct facilities there, including a new air operations command center. 34 From FY2003 to FY2007, Congress appropriated and authorized $126 million for U.S. military construction activities in Qatar. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (H.R. 4986) authorizes $81.7 million in FY2008 spending to build new Air Force and Special Operations facilities in Qatar.

B. Nuclear war Zalmay Khalilzad, Senior Analyst at RAND, 1995 Washington Quarterly, Spring, Lexis Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

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Ext. Heg Internal Link Qatar is key to US power projection and hegemony. MEMRI Middle East Media Research Institute, 7/22/08 http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP199608 "Qatar is the Largest U.S. Military Base, With the Exception of NATO Member Countries" "Last night, an article appeared in the Qatari daily Al-Sharq, authored by one Fawaz Al-'Ajami. Al-'Ajami condemns the Arab leaders for their eagerness to respond to invitations extended by foreign leaders, who seek to promote their own and their allies' interests - France's invitation to the Mediterranean Union is a case in point. [Al-'Ajami] claims that France hopes to achieve economic development by opening up markets in the Arab countries - 'they export [goods], while we [i.e. the Arab countries] import [them].' "The columnist points out that instead of helping to promote foreign interests, the Arabs should demand [the establishment of] a union to deal with their own issues, such as Palestine, the Golan Heights, Sudan, Ethiopia-occupied Somalia, and the independence of Lebanon. While stressing the urgency of [establishing] an Arab union, brother Fawaz Al-'Ajami forgets that his own country - Qatar - is doing the least for the Arabs, and there are numerous examples to that effect. Qatar is the largest U.S. military base, with the exception of NATO member countries. The Al-'Udaid air base [in Qatar] is [a source of] power for the U.S. army in the Gulf, providing the American occupying forces in Iraq with air cover and logistical aid."

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Middle East War ! A. LNG allows Qatar to secure its influence in Middle East peace. The Economist, Jun 5th 2008, Economist.com, “Small country, big ideas,” http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11506776 IN 1952, the year that Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani was born, Qatar had fewer than 40,000 people, most of them barefoot nomads and fishermen, and not a single school. The emirate he rules now hosts Education City, a complex of branch campuses from some of the world's most prestigious colleges. According to IMF figures, the country's 950,000 residents this year surpassed those of Luxembourg to become the world's richest. They enjoy an income per person of $80,870. Yet that plump figure belies the far greater private wealth of native Qatari citizens, who number fewer than 200,000 but who own nearly all the emirate's assets, as opposed to the army of foreign guest workers who serve them. Most of that wealth came easily, from oil. But Sheikh Hamad has succeeded in achieving something that other petro-despots have not. Qatar's emir has stamped this Jamaica-sized patch of flat, scorched desert, which sticks out of Saudi Arabia into the Gulf like a sore thumb, firmly on the map of international diplomacy. Last month he coaxed Lebanon's viciously bickering politicians into ending a crippling 18-month power struggle, flying them to his capital, Doha, to thrash out an agreement. Qatar has

also mediated between insurgent clansmen and the government of Yemen, and acted as an increasingly well-trampled bridge between the Middle East's polarised camps: America and its pro-Western Arab allies on the one hand, and the “resistance” block that includes Iran, Syria and the Islamist parties Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon on the other. The talk now is of Sheikh Hamad healing the rift between Hamas and Fatah, the secular party of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and fostering a rapprochement between Syria and its estranged Arab brothers. Qatar's oil money has certainly helped to make peace. A free week spent in one of Doha's six-star hotels would dull the meanest fighting spirit, and there are wags in Lebanon, for instance, who contend that their politicians pocketed other, bigger sweeteners. But there has been plenty of fast Qatari footwork too. Since Sheikh Hamad ousted his father in a bloodless coup in 1995, observers have questioned the apparently erratic course of Qatari foreign policy. But under the guidance of his distant cousin, Sheikh Hamad bin Jasim, the long-serving foreign minister, and more recently also prime minister, Qatar has cut the apron strings that traditionally tie smaller Gulf states to bigger, older regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and adopted a firmly independent line. The emirate has assiduously wooed the United States, inviting its Central Command to set up its forward headquarters at al-Udeid, an airbase near Doha, in time for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The base has one of the biggest stocks of American military supplies anywhere in the world. Qatar has also pleased America by regularly hosting Israeli officials, and by sending a generous $100m in aid to help those hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Yet the country has reached out to America's enemies, too. As host of the annual summit of Gulf Arab leaders this year, Sheikh Hamad broke with tradition to invite Iran's controversial president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to attend. Following Hamas's election victory in 2006, the sheikh publicly scolded America for working to undermine the results of the democratic process in Palestine. He has sent aid to help Gazans under Israeli siege, and millions more to help reconstruct the mostly Shia parts of Lebanon that Israel bombed in its war in the summer of 2006 with Hizbullah, whose leader, Hassan Nasrallah, he is said to admire. Qatari property investment has also helped to bolster Syria's sagging economy. Meanwhile, both Sheikh Hamads have generously sponsored the Qatar-based satellite channel, al-Jazeera, whose lively, critical coverage and reform-Islamist leanings continue to attract high audience ratings, while annoying both pro-Israeli Americans as well as religiously conservative Saudis. But the apparent contradictions in Qatar's policy are now paying off. Other mediators failed in

Lebanon, for instance, because they were not seen as neutral. And even if it is just Qatar's money that wins friends, there is plenty more of that coming. The emirate's output of liquid natural gas, its biggest export, is set to double in the next five years.

B. Global war. Reuters 2007“Middle East turmoil could cause world war: U.S. envoy.” 8/27. http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL2719552620070827 Upheaval in the Middle East and Islamic civilization could cause another world war, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was quoted as saying in an Austrian newspaper interview published on Monday. Zalmay Khalilzad told the daily Die Presse the Middle East was now so disordered that it had the potential to inflame the world as Europe did during the first half of the 20th century. "The (Middle East) is going through a very difficult transformation phase. That has strengthened extremism and creates a breeding ground for terrorism," he said in remarks translated by Reuters into English from the published German. "Europe was just as dysfunctional for a while. And some of its wars became world wars. Now the problems of the Middle East and Islamic civilization have the same potential to engulf the world," he was quoted as saying.

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Ext. Middle East War Internal Link Qatar’s economic stability is key to peace in the Middle East. Nicholas Blanford Beirut correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor 5/23/08 “Why Qatar is emerging as Middle East peacemaker http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0523/p06s02-wome.html?page=1 Doha, Qatar - This tiny Gulf state emerged this week at the forefront of regional diplomacy, successfully shepherding the negotiations between feuding Lebanese factions to end months of political turmoil and violence. With regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, aligned behind rival players in Lebanon, Qatar is uniquely suited to help mediate Lebanon's crisis. It's seen as charting an unashamedly independent path in the maze of Arab politics, "Just a year ago, Saudi Arabia was trying to do this [mediation], but Saudi Arabia is considered an interested party. But Qatar is somewhat in between," says Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Center in Beirut. "Qatar, on the Lebanon issue, is the only country with good relations on both sides and has the money to back it up."Qatar's intense mediation bore fruit Wednesday in a last-minute deal on the composition of the next Lebanese government, an electoral law, the election of a new president, and a future dialogue on the fate of the militant Shiite Hezbollah's weapons. In a highly factionalized Middle East, where the US and Iran and their respective regional allies are struggling for dominance, Qatar is in the unusual position of having a foot in both camps. It remains a key ally of Washington, hosting the Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military facility in the region. It enjoys economic ties to Israel, and Israeli officials often participate in meetings and conferences in Doha. Yet Qatar also is Syria's closest Arab friend, investing millions of dollars in major property development projects and providing diplomatic support. The Damascus regime is viewed with hostility by other key Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, for its close ties to Iran and influence in Lebanon. According to Qataris, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife, Asma, are often seen wandering through Doha's gleaming shopping malls as guests of Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani. A thumb-shaped peninsula jutting into the Persian Gulf, Qatar possesses the third-largest gas deposits in the world and last year became the world's largest liquefied natural gas exporter. Oil and gas amount to more than 60 percent of gross domestic product, making it one of the higher per-capita income states in the world. While many Arab Gulf countries fret about Iran's regional ambitions, Qatar enjoys genial relations with the Islamic Republic. In December, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first Iranian head of state to attend the annual summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Doha. "Qatar is a tiny fish stuck between giants – Iran and Saudi Arabia," says Hady Amr, director of the Brookings Doha Center. "It simply tries to balance all those interests with those of the US. So it does have the US military base, but it actively balances this with deeper relations with Iran." Despite its limited size, Qatar is "rising in regional and even international prominence as a convener of vital conferences," Mr. Amr adds, citing the World Trade Organization's Doha Round and the Asian Games among others.

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AT: Qatar Corrupt/Econ not liberalized Qatar has a transparent and liberalized economy capable of increased investment. BuyUsa.Com 08 (U.S. Commercial service "Market of the Month – Qatar" Doha Qatar SkylineQatar - Market of the Month January 2008, http://www.buyusa.gov/sacramento/qatarmarket.html) //DG Doing Business in Qatar There is great optimism and excitement among the business community in Qatar. By transforming hydrocarbon wealth into modern health facilities, tourism infrastructure, and western-style education institutions, the Qatari Government aims to engender a forward-looking and highly skilled population. The Qatari Government has established credibility among the population and the business community. When plans and projects are announced, they are usually realized, and contracts are awarded in a generally efficient and transparent manner. Qatar is very amenable to western visitors, and security experts consider Qatar one of the lowest crime countries on earth. U.S. Commercial Service Director General Israel Hernandez at U.S. Commercial Service Doha Opening Ceremony In the last five years, Qatar has liberalized its trade and investment climate in line with its WTO obligations by reducing tariffs, removing unnecessary restrictions and barriers to trade, and providing foreign investors more opportunities. There are many positive aspects to Qatar’s business framework. U.S. companies report that the customs clearing process is generally problem-free. Qatari companies and customers are highly interested in working with Americans and buying U.S. products and services. Doing business with Qatar Petroleum and the public sector is in general transparent and efficient. When disputes do arise, it is possible to resolve commercial disputes in Qatari courts, though the process is more time-consuming than in the United States. U.S. firms also report that industrial standards that are applied in Qatar are favorable to U.S. exports. Qatar has a stable currency and the country imposes no foreign exchange controls. There are well-capitalized financial institutions in Qatar. Furthermore, the government permits up to 100% of foreign ownership in agriculture, manufacturing, health, education, tourism, power, and projects involved in Qatar’s natural resources. However, with all of this tremendous growth and development comes some expected growing pains. In some cases, the country’s economy is growing faster than the evolution of necessary laws and procedures affecting business to keep up. Sometimes regulations are not widely published and are at times enforced with little or no consultation with the private sector. Shortages in materials and labor are common in this red-hot economic environment. In addition, rent is increasing rapidly given the growth of the economy and the influx of foreign workers into Qatar, and high overall inflation continues to be a concern throughout the region. The US Commercial Service has recently opened an office in Qatar, and stands ready to assist US firms in their market development efforts in this dynamic country. Business dealings in Qatar, and throughout the Middle East rely on personal interaction and business relationships take time to cultivate. American firms considering Qatar as a market are encouraged to visit and avail themselves of the counseling and customized services available from the Commercial Section of the American Embassy in Doha. Why Qatar?

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AT: Domestic Reserves Solve Domestic supply isn’t enough- Qatar and foreign suppliers are key Michael Klare – professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2006 The Nation, “The Geopolitics of Natural Gas,” 1-23-2006, www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Oil_watch/Geopolitics_NaturalGas.html) // JMP Item. Ever since India announced plans more than a year ago to build a natural gas pipeline from fields in Iran to its own territory via Pakistan, the Bush Administration has been applying pressure on New Delhi to cancel the project, claiming it will undermine US attempts to isolate Tehran and curb its nuclear efforts. "We have communicated to the Indian government our concerns about the gas pipeline cooperation between Iran and India," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced after meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh on March 16. But the Indians have continued talks with Islamabad and Tehran over the pipeline plan. The United States is becoming increasingly dependent on natural gas. This country now relies on natural gas for approximately one-fourth of its total energy supply, more than from any source except oil. As a result, the economy has become more and more vulnerable to fluctuations in gas supply and pricing-a vulnerability that should be especially evident this winter as gas prices hit record levels, with painful effects on the poor. Natural gas provides approximately 14 percent of the energy used to generate electricity in this country, 45 percent of home heating fuel and 31 percent of the energy and petrochemicals consumed by agriculture and industry. Gas is also used as a feedstock for the manufacture of hydrogen, a promising new entrant in the race to develop alternative fuels. The United States currently relies on

North American supplies for most of its gas, but with those reserves being depleted at a rapid pace and few untapped fields available for exploitation, need for gas from other regions is growing and energy plants seek more gas from foreign suppliers like Qatar, Nigeria and Russia. As with oil, America could become heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for essential energy needs, a situation fraught with danger for national security. Many of America's key allies, including the NATO powers and Japan, are dependent on imports.

North American LNG won’t be enough to keep up. Hil Anderson 16 Junnn 2008, United Press International, “Natural Gas economics turn international”, Lexis Nexis, AB Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Tuesday dumped icy cold water on the notion that natural gas will be able to keep the U.S. economy humming without the uncertainty that accompanies dependence on foreign oil imports. Testifying before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Greenspan said the nation appeared destined -- or doomed -- to include not only gas produced in North America in its energy mix for the 21st century, but also on increasing volumes of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from overseas.

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AT: Offshore Drilling Solves Oil drilling in the U.S. is not enough to make the country independent of foreign oil. Ford Gunter, Houston Business Journal; November 26, 2007 http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2007/11/26/daily10.html Even so, according to a model built by the Baker Institute, opening restricted areas in the Outer Continental Shelf and Rocky Mountains to drilling and resource development "will not render the United States energy independent nor will it even lower U.S. dependence on LNG imports in 2015 by a significant volume."

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AT: Canada Solves Canada doesn’t have the needed resources for natural gas Spero News 6/3008 “Is Liquified Natural Gas an Economic Target?” http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=15596&t=Is+Liquified+Natural+Gas+an+Economic+Target%3F The natural gas industry has an excellent safety record. However, the 9/11 attacks have changed the threat profile. If the U.S. is to continue increasing its appetite for natural gas, it will inevitably increase its imports of LNG because Canada cannot provide enough natural gas to meet U.S. future requirements.

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US-Qatar Relations Strong US-Qatar relations high- security cooperation and economic links U.S. Department of State, June 2008 Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “Background Note: Qatar,” http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5437.htm U.S.-QATARI RELATIONS Bilateral relations are strong and expanding. The U.S. embassy was opened in March 1973. The first resident U.S. ambassador arrived in July 1974. Ties between the U.S. and Qatar are excellent. Amir Hamad last visited Washington in 2004, and President Bush visited Qatar in 2003. Qatar and the United States coordinate closely on regional diplomatic initiatives, cooperate to increase security in the Gulf, and enjoy extensive economic links, especially in the hydrocarbons sector. Qatar sees the development of a world-class educational system as key to its continued success. As a result, hundreds of Qataris study in the United States. Cornell University has established a degree-granting branch medical school campus in Doha, and other universities including Texas A&M, Carnegie Mellon University, the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Design, the Georgetown School of Foreign Service, and Northwestern also have branch campuses in Qatar's "Education City" complex.

US-Qatar relations high- defense cooperation Christopher Blanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, 1/24/08 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL31718.pdf The United States promptly recognized the assumption of power by Shaikh Hamad in June 1995 and has welcomed Qatar’s defense cooperation, as well as Qatari political, economic, and educational reform efforts since that time. Qatari- U.S. defense relations have expanded over the last 15 years to include cooperative defense exercises, equipment pre-positioning, and base access agreements, although Qatari officials have been, at times, critical of U.S. military operations in the Persian Gulf. 32 U.S. concerns regarding alleged material support for terrorist groups by some Qataris, including members of the royal family, have been balanced over time by Qatar’s counterterrorism efforts and its broader, long-term commitment to host and support U.S. military forces being used in ongoing operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the global war on terrorism. Today, Qatari-U.S. relations remain cordial and close. Since September 2005, Qatar has donated $100 million to victims of Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. Gulf states.

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Dependence ! 2NC A. Natural gas is the only way to break oil dependence AgWeb.com, 7-9-08, “Pickens Plan: Creating an Energy-Secure Future”, LexisNexis, CM Pickens says the U.S. has several fuel options, with some being better than others. Coal : "Coal is just not going to do it," he says. Natural Gas : Pickens believes natural gas is the best option for a transportation fuel source. He says it burns cleaner, is cheaper and is domestic. Additionally, he says nearly 8 million vehicles in the world are capable of running on natural gas. Ethanol : Pickens admits ethanol is not going to be the energy solution in the U.S., but says he likes it better than foreign oil. "Ethanol is an ugly baby, but it's our baby." Hydro power : "It works great," he says. But, he doesn't see it as a feasible option due to the lack of resources. Wind/Solar : Pickens applauds the use of both wind and solar as renewable energy sources. He says they haven't been developed as they should because foreign oil was too cheap for too long. Nuclear : "Nuclear will work," he says. "But, it will take a long time." The Plan Pickens believes the best candidate for breaking the addiction to foreign oil is natural gas . "Natural gas is the second largest natural resource in the country," he says. "It is the only resource in America we have that can make a difference." He also says the country has to develop more wind farms and that the U.S. has a better potential for large-scale wind power than any country in the world. He also believes building wind farms in rural America is a fabulous opportunity to turn a local economy around. By taking advantage of the U.S.'s natural gas resources and building new wind-generation facilities, as outlined in his plan, Pickens says more than one-third of foreign oil imports will be replaced within 10 years.

B. Oil dependence causes terrorist attacks. RJ Eskow, Huffington Post 8/16/06 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/a-national-securityiniti_b_27355.html Our dependence on foreign oil greatly increases our susceptibility to terrorism, by forcing us to continue supporting widely-hated, non-Democratic regimes in the Middle East. A sister initiative to reduce oil dependence would go a long way toward easing the terrorist threat, by allowing us to become more neutral brokers in the Arabian peninsula.We also need to face some hard facts about terrorists: In many ways, they've adopted far more advanced 21st Century techniques in this struggle than we have. They use blogs, websites, emails, pop music, video, art, poetry ... even video games ... to build support and find recruits.

C. Extinction Sid-Ahmed ’04 (Mohamed,- political analyst for Al-Ahram weekly “Extinction!” http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm What would be the

consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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Econ ! 2NC A. Low gas prices kill the economy Tavia Grant, 12-22-07, The Globe and Mail, December 22, 2007 Saturday Numbers give the lie that slowdown fears; Factories are being shuttered, shoppers abandoning malls and growth has hit the skids, or so we're told. The data say otherwise, lexis, bc The conventional wisdom goes like this: Manufacturers are crumbling, consumers crossing the border are denting domestic retail sales, and economic growth has withered.Thing is, that may all be wrong. Economic growth once again topped forecasts, rising 0.2 per cent in October in a month when a strong currency was supposed to have battered exports and sent shoppers on U.S. spending sprees. Instead, the effect of border shopping has been muted. Consumer spending and factory output were key drivers of growth - while the energy sector, of all things, drooped. Annual growth is now running at 2.8 per cent, the fastest in more than a year, Statistics Canada said yesterday. That pace has accelerated from just 1.8 per cent at the start of the year, representing an extra $13-billion in the economy. Of that, a full $10-billion stems from a turnaround in manufacturing, according to Philip Cross, chief of current economic analysis at Statscan. Of that, a full $10-billion stems from a turnaround in manufacturing, according to Philip Cross, chief of current economic analysis at Statscan. "The big turnarounds this year have been in manufacturing and wholesale," he said. "If there's one sector that's collapsing, it's not retailers, or manufacturers - it's natural gas, which is clearly the weak part of the economy." Low natural gas prices are the key reason, though high commodity prices elsewhere are still benefiting Canada.

B. Nuclear war. Walter Russel Mead, fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 1992 New perspectives quarterly, summer pp. 28 But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates - or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

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AT: Impact Turns LNG is safe – the environmentalists are wrong Alex Epstein (Providence Journal, November 16, 2004; Washington Times, November 18, 2004) “Environmentalism's Dangerous Campaign for "Safety"” The Ayn Rand Center for Individual Rights http://www.aynrand.org/site/News2?news_iv_ctrl=1077&page=NewsArticle&id=10421 OZ America's domestic shortage of natural gas is, as Alan Greenspan has observed, "a very serious problem." Fortunately, there is a proven technology that could enable Americans to access plentiful natural gas stores from overseas: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)--natural gas cooled and condensed into a portable liquid, 1/600th its original volume. Given these facts, one might expect energy-short state governments to eagerly approve corporations' proposals for new LNG facilities; instead, bowing to pressure from environmentalists, they are repeatedly rejecting them. Environmentalists level many objections against LNG--for example, that LNG facilities would displace "plant and animal life" or that LNG tankers may require harbors to be dredged--but one objection has been more effective than all the rest combined: the claim that LNG is catastrophically unsafe. The Sierra Club calls LNG "extremely volatile," and labels LNG tankers and storage facilities an "enormous risk" that "endanger our health and safety." A documentary popular among opponents of LNG claims that an LNG mishap or a terrorist attack on an LNG facility could incinerate an entire city. Is LNG a disaster waiting to happen? Consider its history. In the last 60 years in the United States, only one person has died in an LNG-related accident. Countries like Japan use LNG accident-free to get nearly all of their natural gas. In 1995, LNG facilities in Kobe, Japan, went undamaged in an earthquake that registered 6.8 on the Richter scale! LNG's admirable safety record is the result of two fundamental factors. First, contrary to environmentalist propaganda, LNG is not an especially volatile, hazardous material--it is far less hazardous than many commonly used substances, such as propane, since it can become explosive and flammable only under rare conditions. Second, LNG producers protect against these conditions by using advanced safety technologies and procedures--such as double-hull tankers, safety-systems with automatic shutdown, and the use of offshore facilities far removed from population centers. But what about the claim that the risk of infiltration by terrorists justifies banning LNG--such as Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's statement, in response to a proposed facility, that there "is simply no way that it makes sense to site an LNG [facility] in this location in the post-9/11 world"? This is no more valid than saying that because terrorists can do massive damage by crashing planes into buildings, planes and buildings should be banned. Would environmentalists accept the argument that since arsonists can do massive damage by burning trees-witness the California forest fires--trees should be banned? The fact that something can be misused to harm others is an argument only for forbidding that misuse (where possible)--not for depriving individuals of the many beneficial uses of trees, planes, or LNG. (And in the case where the danger comes from a foreign aggressor, it is the aggressor, not one of his unlimited potential targets, that must be eliminated.) The fallacious technique of arguing against the "safety" of a technology by citing some potential misuse is not unique to LNG--it is used by environmentalists to oppose other life-promoting technologies, such as nuclear power and biotechnology. And this technique itself is just one of the many pseudo-logical, pseudo-scientific methods environmentalists use to condemn technologies as "unsafe." Environmentalists got the pesticide DDT and the apple preservative Alar off the market with claims that each causes cancer--based on studies using mice fed the equivalent of over 100,000 times normal human consumption. To "prove" that fossil fuels cause cataclysmic climate change--first, global cooling in the 1970s, now, global warming--environmentalists cite the predictions of wildly inaccurate computer models that, according to climatologist Dr. Patrick Michaels, perform "worse than a table of random numbers when applied to U.S. temperatures." The environmentalists' proclamations of danger and doom are not honest errors based on an overzealous concern for human safety and well-being--they are a dishonest scare-tactic to make their anti-industrial policies appealing to those who do not share the environmentalist belief that nature should be preserved at human expense. Observe that environmentalists are utterly indifferent to the human toll of abandoning "unsafe" technologies--of natural gas shortages, of the $200 million lost by apple-growers over the Alar scare, of the energy crises created by anti-nuclear, anti-fossil fuel policies, of the millions who continue to die unnecessarily due to the DDT ban. Safety in the pursuit of technology is a valid concern, but only within the context of a preeminent regard for human well-being and its greatest benefactor: industrial civilization. Given their track record of dishonest arguments and the anti-industrial goals that motivate them, environmentalists' screams about "safety" should be dismissed out-of-hand and not be permitted to further thwart technological progress.

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AT: Natural Gas Unsafe It is unlikely that a large impact would result from LNG explosions Council on Foreign Relations, written by Eben Kaplan 2/27/06 “Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?” http://www.cfr.org/publication/9810/ OZ But an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. The most attractive targets are the boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold. A report, put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of 20,000 injuries. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so large, in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an explosion."

The effects of any safety problem will not spread- no terminal impact Dr. G. A. Melhem, PHD Professor of Structural Engineering 2006 “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths” updated 2006, http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf) In summary, then, it is clear that there is a significant resurgence in proposed projects to import LNG into the United States. Along with this renewed interest it is understandable that there is increasing concern regarding the safety associated with large scale LNG importation. It is legitimate for an inquiring and concerned public to ask pertinent questions and by the same token it is legitimate for those well versed in LNG safety to answer those questions. It is totally inappropriate for segments of the media and groups of citizens to engage in fear-mongering and initiate campaigns of misinformation. In this paper we have drawn upon the vast amount of field measurements and data, operational and engineering information regarding LNG gathered over the last 60 years to candidly address the safety issues associated with large scale LNG importation. We have taken into account the new threats that have emerged in the form of terrorism in our evaluations as well. The overall conclusion is straightforward. In the highly unlikely event of a very large scale release of LNG on land or water, significant impact will be felt in the vicinity of the release. The zone of impact will be moderate but will not extend anywhere close to the 30 miles predicted by some illinformed groups. As long as the LNG vapor cloud is unconfined, it will not explode. If the cloud encounters populated areas it will quickly find an ignition source before covering large populated areas and burn back to the spill site. If mass casualty is the goal of any terrorist group, then LNG facilities and tankers are not good targets. Finally, since the Cleveland accident of 1944, the LNG industry has amassed 60 years of transportation and operational experience world wide without a single casualty being inflicted on the general public.

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AT: Terrorism Turn There are precautions in place Council on Foreign Relations, written by Eben Kaplan 2/27/06 “Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?” http://www.cfr.org/publication/9810/ OZ What safety precautions are taken to prevent such attacks? LNG tankers approaching U.S. waters must provide ninety-six hours' notice, allowing the Coast Guard to provide a small flotilla to safely escort the boat to its destination. Added security detail includes local police boats, divers, firefighting tugboats, and a helicopter. Bridges along the tanker's route are closed and nearby airports suspend flights. Any private vessels that drift too close are sternly turned away. Tankers are inspected and screened for explosives before they are allowed to approach land, and tanker crews must pass a security check before being allowed to board the vessels. At LNG terminals, there is also a heavy security presence; access to the terminals is controlled, and security personnel perform regular threat-response drills. Because of its low cost and high impact, a U.S.S. Cole-style attack remains an important security concern for defense planners. "It's not a difficult thing to do if you're determined to do it," Fay says. "It doesn't require trained experts to evade the Coast Guard." When a passenger jet enters restricted airspace over a nuclear plant, it is the U.S. president, Knake says, who must decide whether to repel the plane with force. Yet when a private craft drifts too close to an LNG tanker, "you could have a petty officer in the Coast Guard making this call," he says.

The risk of a terrorist attack because of LNG is not likely. (Dr. G. A. Melhem, Dr. A. S. Kalelkar, Dr. S. Saraf "Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths" updated 2006, http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf) AP After the terrorist attacks of 9/11, government agencies and the public became more concerned about chemical storage and transportation facilities that are close to populated areas. Facilities handling large quantities of hazardous materials, such as LNG terminals and tankers, were initially identified as attractive terrorist targets. The scenario feared by all involves a terrorist using an explosive charge (or flying an airplane) to breach and possibly detonate one or more storage tanks on a ship containing up to 125,000 m3 of LNG in a heavily populated area. The same scenario is feared for large LNG storage tanks. As a result, security and surveillance of LNG terminals/facilities and ships coming to port to unload LNG cargo have increased considerably. In 2002, the city of Boston denied permission to an LNG tanker from entering port and unloading its much needed LNG cargo at an Everett LNG terminal, during the winter. In addition, there is significant opposition to proposals for LNG terminal expansions, and as well as proposals to build new LNG terminals. The opposition comes from both the general public as well as politicians. There is a lot of debate surrounding the potential for an LNG explosion. Let us examine the issue of possible LNG explosion when the liquid and vapor are not confined. First, LNG has to be vaporized and then mixed in the right proportions with air in order to obtain a composition that can burn. Furthermore, methane is relatively insensitive to initiation as compared to heavier hydrocarbons. Available data and good understanding of explosion dynamics indicate that it is not possible to detonate LNG vapors, even with the use of an explosive charge (that is large enough) on a storage tank, unless the LNG vapors contain high fractions of ethane and propane (more than 20%). Explosion test data on methane/ethane mixtures in the vapor phase support these statements1. The likelihood of this scenario is equivalent to each of the authors of this paper winning the power ball or megabucks lottery several times, simultaneously. The most likely outcome of a terrorist attack will be a large pool fire and possibly a low order deflagration/flash fire of finely divided LNG liquid droplets aerosolized by the blast force of the explosive charge. LNG pool fire hazards are localized and as a result thermal radiation effects (2nd degree burns) are typically confined to within one or two pool diameters from the edge of the flame. This significantly limits the extent of impact. As a result, LNG tankers and bulk storage tanks are not attractive targets for terrorists who seek to achieve mass casualties.

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AT: Hurst Turns Hurst is wrong and biased – empirical evidence & testaments show Maritime Accident Casebook was created by Bob Couttie in June 2007. It quickly established itself as an authoritative, credible source, popular among both seafarers and maritime accident investigators. It is a voluntary, free resource for seafarers and those who train them and support is always welcome. 6/25/08 http://www.maritimeaccident.org/2008/06/25/lng-terrorism-al-quaida-is-winning/ OZ Sharp eyes picked up on a headline in Maritime Safety News for 16th June: “The LNG Threat:Liquefied Natural Gas Tankers Remain Giant Terror Targets on the extremist American website The Cutting Edge,. We would have ignored it except that the report was based on a paper,.The Terrorist Threat to Liquefied Natural Gas: Fact or Fiction? from a political analyst with the US military’s Foreign Military Studies Office, Cindy Hurst, a Lieutenant Commander in the US Navy Reserve, and is, therefore, likely to be cited in other news reports and academic papers and may ‘inform policy’ as the saying goes. The paper originates with the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security,IAGS, a grouping of politicians, rightwing activists and religious organisations and associated with the ‘Make American Free Coalition”‘ which tells us it is “spearheading a global effort to transition the transportation sector to next-generation fuels and vehicles that can utilize them, the United States can deny its adversaries the wherewithal they use to harm us.” The assumption of the paper is that LNG carriers are manned by non-American crews and flagged under non-US registries and until they are, America won’t be safe: “…members of the public remain adamantly opposed to bringing LNG with its foreign ships and crews into their “backyards,” perhaps rightly so.” Or, more likely, wrongly so. A sniffy person might point out that American men, women and children are more at risk from other American men, women and, sadly, children than from Al Quaida. Eight times more Americans are killed by American bullets every year than died in the 9/11 attack at ‘foreign’ hands. Every American president subject to actual or attempted assassination has been the victim of an American with the sole exception of William Kinley in 1901. Says Hurst: “The rest of the world does not seem to share the same security and safety concerns as Americans regarding LNG. This could be a potential problem..” Of course, it may be that the rest of the world has a far better idea of the real potential for using an LNG carrier as a weapon and whther or not one is likely explode if attacked.” One of MAC’s correspondents, in command of an LNG tanker, criticised the Cutting Edge version of the Hurst report: “Yet another article by partisan authors scaring the pants off the American public. I am master of one of these potential LNG bombers they seem so worried about and it distresses me beyond words to be slandered in front of Congress. My crime is to be non-American. The union delegate speaking to congress has alternate motives, he’s looking for jobs for his members, terrorism is the red herring being used to convince the American public I am a threat. “As for all this rot about flags of convenience, where does the author get her information from? In case anyone really is interested many of the new LNG ships, including the one I am master of is registered in the Marshall Islands, which I believe is US territory and a US second register. “Cut out this nonsense and scaremongering. Tell the truth for a change. Anyone who knows anything about LNG tankers knows it’s almost impossible to blow such a ship up.” The mechanism posited by Hurst is a boiling-liquid-expanding-vapor-explosion or BLEVE and suggests, based on a report citing a DNV executive, that Moss-type tanks are particularly at risk. She does not suggest any means by which this could occur. Indeed, one of Hurst’s sources, Scott Conway who has served eight years onboard LNG tankers and who is intimately familiar with the construction of the Moss spherical tanker, asks: ““Where is the BLEVE going to occur in this tank? Where are you going to direct the flames back at this tank to heat up the liquid? How are you going to build up the pressure so that it overcomes the safety release? When you can explain this all logically as per the ship’s construction, then we’ll talk seriously.” Neither Hurst, nor The Cutting Edge provide a practical scenario for creating a BLEVE in a Moss tank, or any other LNG tank, logically or illogically.

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AT: Iran LNG Iran isn’t capable of supplying the US- Sanctions and lack of technology and infrastructre AME Info, 3 (AME Info is the ultimate Middle East business resource, "Is Doha the next Dubai? Qatar's billiondollar deals with big oil make it an economic heavyweight. Inside the Gulf's next energy superpower whose ambitions shadow those of Dubai," 12-3-2003, www.ameinfo.com/31790.html) // JMP Qatar is ideally positioned to become the leading gas supplier to its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Demand has been rising at 6.5 percent a year and some of these states are already finding themselves hard put to meet it. By 2005, the GCC's overall deficit is expected to hit 4.5 billion cubic feet per day, and 6 billion cubic feet per day by 2010. Collectively, the GCC's current gas reserves are estimated at 975 trillion cubic feet. But with the exception of Qatar these are mostly what is known as 'associated gas' linked to oil production and not capable of meeting the rising demand for gas. Saudi Arabia has an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet of oil-associated gas and is in the process of opening up its upstream gas sector to foreign investment, the first time that has happened since the oil industry was nationalized in 1975. But that is proving to be a laborious process and it will take years before production begins. Even then, the gas will be used for domestic consumption rather than export. Iran is the only regional state that can rival Qatar's gas reserves. Its big offshore South Pars field in the Gulf, for instance, is ripe for foreign investment. But Iran is having to struggle to attract sufficient technology and funds to develop its massive reserves and lags far behind Qatar's breakneck development program over the last 10 years or so. Unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States prevent American companies from providing investment. The GCC has long talked about building a regional gas grid based in Qatar's North Field to supply the alliance's member states. Recurring power shortages in the region have given the project some urgency, yet the idea, like many others involving collective GCC participation, has foundered because of a lack of political will. Another Gulf-wide project - an oil pipeline starting in Kuwait to link all the GCC countries - would provide export terminals for tankers on the Arabian Sea coast, rather than inside the Gulf. Shipping routes out of the Gulf have to pass through the chokepoint Strait of Hormuz, which is vulnerable to blockage. The idea has been kicking around for decades, and is trotted out with every regional crisis, but always winds up getting shelved - as it did when the GCC oil ministers met in Doha in early November. Perhaps the prospects for the gas grid will fare better as regional demand for Qatar's abundance of this source of energy inexorably mounts.

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Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (1/2) Gas is the only viable way to reduce emissions- alternative energy will fail. Foster Natural Gas Report, 10-5-07, Report No. 2663; Pg. 8, “No Restraint: Chesapeake Energy CEO Continues Offensive To Promote Natural Gas Over Coal”, LexisNexis, CM Aubrey McClendon is pushing natural gas as clean, abundant, and affordable, the best solution for global warming and national energy security. The chief executive officer (CEO) of Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy Corp. distributed a "Gas Manifesto" at the Natural Gas Roundtable on September 27 making the case for each of his claims. Chesapeake, which boasts former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (R) and former U.S. Senator Don Nickles (R) as board members, grew from an initial investment of $50,000 to become one of the largest gas producers in the United States and the largest independent gas producer. The company has been exploring or acquiring assets in the Mid-Continent, Forth Worth Barnett Shale, Fayetteville Shale, Permian Basin, Delaware Basin, South Texas, Texas Gulf Coast, Ark-La-Tex and Appalachian Basins. Chesapeake is gas-heavy, with only about 8% of its holdings in oil. After the 19981999 price collapse, McClendon and partners bet that unconventional gas formations like tight sands and shale would become more economic, given the "structural increase" in gas prices and improvements in horizontal directional drilling (HDD) and well-completion technologies. From 2000 to 2006, they launched an aggressive leasing program to acquire proven developed and undeveloped reserves and, later, possible and probable reserves. The company now has a 10-year inventory of drilling sites, 12.2 million onshore acres under lease, 3-D seismic data for 17.7 million acres, and 10 Tcf of estimated proved reserves - all east of the Rockies. Production growth is at 19% this year, and Chesapeake expects 18-22% in 2007, 14-18% in 2008, and 12-16% in 2009. "There's a lot more gas out there than anyone realizes," McClendon told the Roundtable, and one big reason is that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) employs a definition of "proven" gas reserves that he considers obsolete. The current definition, he told FNGR, captures reserves in vertical but not horizontal plays, which can be substantial. The latest Potential Gas Committee study by the Colorado School of Mines estimates a 75-year supply of natural gas, McClendon reminded the group of energy insiders, and U.S. and Canadian studies together promise over 120 years of North American supply. Recent shale discoveries, the CEO claimed, "change everything we know about gas supply in the U.S. and the world." The prospects are equally sunny for gas prices. McClendon insists that gas is comparatively cheap - priced at roughly 50% of the Btu equivalent price of oil. Prices are, indeed, higher than five years ago, but milk prices are up 110%, most metals are up 400-500%, and oil is up 100-150% over the same period. Meanwhile, Chesapeake's costs have at least doubled in the past five years, and independents "are now producing at a loss," despite what is assumed on Capitol Hill. In any case, the developing global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) "virtually assures" that the days of $10+ price spikes "are over in the U.S." On the demand side, "it's a great time" to be a gas consumer because the 1 Bcf/d rise in gas demand for power is "more than offset" by a 1 Bcf/d drop in industrial and space heating demand. On environmental grounds, gas is and should remain the preferred fuel for new power plants, McClendon went on. In addition to being cleaner, gas plants have predictable construction costs and time lines, and fuel prices can be hedged for 15-20 years. Gas is produced in 22 of 50 states, which disperses the benefits of greater production and use. Gas should even begin to back out gasoline and diesel usage. "Want to reduce OPEC's power and reduce U.S. trade deficit? It's simple: Use natural gas instead of oil in the transportation sector." According to McClendon, switching to gas as a primary fuel would spare Detroit a return to the "econobox" cars manufactured in the 1970s and 1980s.

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Natural Gas Solves the Aff Better- Warming (2/2) Natural gas is better to solve global warming than alternative energy M2 Presswire, 1-17-08, “Omnitek Engineering, Corp.: Omnitek Engineering, Corp. Announces New Chinese Language Website”, LexisNexis, CM As the price of crude oil continues to increase and the thread of global warming and air pollution remains, the search for an alternative fuel becomes increasingly important. Natural gas has emerged as a perfect solution to these challenges. Readily available in many countries from indigenous sources, natural gas is inexpensive and clean burning. Diesel engines have been the backbone of the transportation industry. Valued for their power, fuel economy and durability, diesel powered trucks and buses are used worldwide, however, they are heavy polluters and significantly contribute to global warming. Omnitek has developed a system to convert any existing diesel engine to a clean-burning natural gas engine at a fraction of the cost of a new engine. Omnitek estimates the population of heavy-duty diesel vehicles and stationary engines around the world which can be converted using the Omnitek Diesel-to-Natural Gas Conversion System and offer the best ROI approaching ten million engines.Prevailing economic factors, rising oil prices and the real threat of global warming make abundantly available and inexpensive natural gas the fuel for the future.

More evidence The Boston Globe, 11-11-07, BUSINESS section; Pg. C1, “As oil prices spike, natural gas utilities find opportunity For gas utilities, spiking oil prices offer opportunity”, LexisNexis, CM Natural gas delivery companies say they have the answer: Convert to gas. The companies say that the price of natural gas is significantly lower than heating oil right now and that switching to "green natural gas technologies" will help prevent climate change. Steve Holliday, the chief executive of National Grid PLC, the British company that recently purchased Keyspan Energy Delivery, the state's largest gas utility, says his company's 53 percent market share in the Greater Boston area should be closer to 90 percent. "Natural gas is way out there as the cleanest fossil fuel there is," Holliday said. "There's a huge opportunity here to clean things up by burning natural gas." In the struggle for supremacy in New England between heating oil dealers and natural gas utilities, everything right now is going the way of natural gas. Gas is cheaper, more versatile, more secure, and, by some measures, more environmentally friendly.

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No Link- No Tradeoff No tradeoff between natural gas and forms of renewable energy Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. 01-07, June, 2007 Despite the rapid growth projected for biofuels and other non-hydroelectric renewable energy sources … oil, coal, and natural gas still are projected to provide roughly the same 86-percent share of the total U.S. primary energy supply in 2030 that they did in 2005.

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No Link- Alt Cause Weather conditions are central to the demand placed on the natural gas sector. Melanie Tatum; Global Power Report, Section: North America: Forecasts; Pg. 23; January 31, 2008 http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4226453779 &format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4226453782&cisb=22_T42264537 81&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8146&docNo=5 Assuming normal weather, gas demand should rise by about 1.3 Bcf/d this year, thereby placing even more pressure on domestic production and imports to keep up with demand, the analyst predicted. Near-normal weather should increase both air-conditioning load and space-heating demand, while several coal-fired plants amounting to around 20,000 MW are expected to have extended outages for installation of environmental control equipment this year.

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Aff ! T/- Economy Module A. High gas prices devastate the economy Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. 01-07, June, 2007 Natural-gas induced price spikes have been devastating to the U.S. economy. Because natural gas accounts for nearly 90 percent of the cost of fertilizer, escalating natural gas prices in 2005 created significant economic hardships for U.S. farmers. As well, some manufacturing and vindustrial consumers that relied heavily on natural gas moved their facilities overseas. The U.S. petrochemical industry, for example, relies on natural gas as a primary feedstock as well as for fuel. On February 17, 2004, the Wall Street Journal reported that the petrochemical sector had lost approximately 78,000 jobs to foreign plants where natural gas was much cheaper.76

B. Nuclear war. Walter Russel Mead, fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 1992 New perspectives quarterly, summer pp. 28 But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates - or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

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Ext. Economy ! T/ Internal Link High energy costs kill the US economy Alan Lammey, Natural Gas Week, April 2, 2007, FEATURE STORIES; LC http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/returnTo.do?returnToKey=20_T4167316719 Alarm bells are going off everywhere regarding the state of the economy, from the crumbling subprime mortgage market to growing concern from the US Federal Reserve over stout energy prices. And a sluggish economy could take a toll on oil, and ultimately natural gas prices in the near future. "There's been a lot of concern that troubles in the US housing sector could infect the broader domestic economy and dent demand for energy," a gas futures trader in Houston said. "Historically, when the country slips into recession, the price for oil and natural gas tends to fall." A direct link exists between energy costs and the economy. When prices go up, businesses and consumers put more of their money into keeping the lights on and keeping their gas tanks filled. That leaves less to spend on other goods and services, stifling growth. Currently, high energy costs, growing consumer indebtedness, and now big troubles in the US housing market are the main catalysts of concern. The most recent signal: A huge fallout in the mortgage industry, as alarming numbers of subprime mortgage foreclosures were reported. While some economists think that the economy will weather this storm, others think recession is now inevitable; but almost all view recent economic events and intractably high energy costs with trepidation. "Last year, we saw prompt-month gas futures fall down to the $4 area, and we weren't even in recession during that time. So if a full-blown recession emerges, then that would seem reasonable. However, supply and demand issues for natural gas will ultimately drive prices just like we've seen over years; but now we just have to add the recession element to the equation."

More evidence Matthew Warren, 9-29-07, Weekend Australian, The hottest of topics, lexis, bc ''If you put a cap in America ... on the electrical utility sector today, and it's very substantial, the only choice the utility has actually is to go to natural gas and expand their renewable portfolio, but that will be relatively incremental,'' Connaughton told journalists in Washington. ''America gobbling up even more natural gas on the global marketplace is not just bad for our economy, it's bad for the global economy, especially in countries many of which import a lot of natural gas and rely on that for their economic growth because they don't have coal. What we need to do on power generation in America ... is pursue the research agenda and with massive incentives.''

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Aff ! T/- Terrorism Module A. LNG could potentially lead to terrorism in the U.S. Cindy Hurst, political military research analyst with the Foreign Military Studies Office and Lieutenant Commander in the United States Navy Reserve, June 30, 2008; LC Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is more than just a potential weapon of mass destruction in the right locale. It also offers terrorists an awesome economic target wherever in the world it can be found--even on the high seas. During a March 21, 2007 hearing, Congressman Bennie G. Thompson, of the second district of Mississippi, observed that although it is important to consider the dangers of LNG, it is equally important to try to assess the economic impacts that an LNG incident might incur. “…Terrorists would just as well like to keep a port out of business for a week or two and that would be an absolutely significant incident… So, I think part of our challenge is how we look at all the consequences associated with the handling of LNG. Clearly, we want to know the hazards initially, but we also want to look at economic conditions that relate to it.” The variables that would affect the economic impact are too numerous to make such a predetermined calculation possible. Additionally, as time passes and the role of LNG grows worldwide, the potential impact of a terrorist attack on these tankers or terminals increases. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), LNG imports comprised only three percent of overall natural gas consumption in the U.S. in 2005. Energy analysts expect LNG imports into the U.S. to increase by 8.7 percent annually through 2030. Emotion, whether positive or negative, can sway the stock market and affect global pricing of energy and the economy. It is impossible to measure anticipated human emotion. A small scale LNG leak could cause natural gas prices to spike temporarily before returning to normal. A large-scale leak or attack that leads to human-casualties could cause prices to spike severely and not return back to their original rates. Despite the unknown outcomes of human emotion, it is critical and cannot be omitted from any potential calculation. Experts don’t agree fully on safety boundaries. Empirical data demonstrating what would happen if there were to be an attack are virtually non-existent. Because of this uncertainty, members of the public remain adamantly opposed to bringing LNG with its foreign ships and crews into their “backyards,” perhaps rightly so. More studies are needed to bring about sound conclusions and ensure the greatest possible degree of public safety, as well as to ensure the security of an important commodity. Building a terminal offshore will certainly mitigate a possible attack, as will enhanced security measures. However, despite the myriad security measures in place, it would be difficult to thwart people willing to die to carry out an attack.

B. Extinction Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1 2004 , Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.hml A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and this is far from certain -- the weapons used are less harmful than those used then, Japan, at the time, with no knowledge of nuclear technology, had no choice but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret for nobody. So far, except for the two bombs dropped on Japan, nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (1/2) Terrorism Likely With Natural Gas—Spiking Prices David Wood, 5-7-07, Oil and Gas Journal, Supply diversity cuts risk exposure, lexis, bc Events such as vessel collisions or terrorist attacks on LNG shipping in the Straits of Hormuz could also have short-term effects on LNG supplies, causing price spikes for natural gas customers. Such scenarios are not difficult to develop and suggest that dependence on a few very large LNG suppliers would provide only limited security of supply for consumers. The US belief that building tens of new regasification facilities in North America (Canada, US, and Mexico) will, on its own, solve the security of supply issue misses part of the problem. Inadequate access to LNG shipping and strategic stocks of LNG could cause future supply interruptions even with extensive onshore LNG regasification capacity in place.

LNG sites could be terrorist targets – the danger is real Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds, staffwriter, "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004, www.projo.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng.134600.html AMK Governor Romney, meanwhile, is asking for more time to study a proposed liquefied natural gas facility in Fall River, saying federal regulators haven't adequately studied potential dangers posed by a terrorist attack on a tanker. Romney sent a letter to FERC Secretary Magalie Salas yesterday, saying terrorism must be considered as a possible threat. "There is simply no way that it makes sense to site an LNG facility in this location in the post-911 world," Romney wrote. "A thorough review would confirm this conclusion."

LNG is very dangerous and can be a WMD Hurst, 8 – political-military research analyst with the Foreign Military Studies Office and a Lieutenant Commander in the United States Navy Reserve (Cindy, Spero News, "Terrorism threatens natural gas supply; Liquified natural gas tankers on the world's oceans remain as giant terror targets. A weapon of mass destruction? Maybe," 6-17-2008, Can Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) be used as a lethal weapon of mass destruction? That question lies at the heart of the debate about increasing use of this important energy resource. The answers are not reassuring. Nor are the questions. Certainly, security measures currently in place make LNG terminals and ships extremely hard targets for terrorists. However, it would be imprudent to believe that terrorists are either incapable or unwilling to attack such targets. It would be equally imprudent to assume that these targets are impenetrable. A number of known vulnerabilities exist within the LNG industry. These vulnerabilities lie in the human factor. In other words, LNG ships and tankers are structurally sound. The potential for problems lies within the people who are somehow involved in the industry. Inadequate vetting of crews LNG shipments often originate from politically unstable and unfriendly countries and regions. Some of the locations in which LNG originates include Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt. “It’s the location of the ports, and where the LNG is loaded, and who gets on the vessel [that is important]," said William Doyle, Deputy General Counsel of the Marine Engineers’ Beneficial Association (MEBA). Many ships operate under grossly unregulated “open registry” or “flags of convenience” registries and often originate from ports with poor security systems in place. Due to a lack of any meaningful international regulatory oversight, it would be possible for someone to work under a different identity on board one of these tankers and avoid detection. Under the current system, no completely trustworthy and uniform system is in place for vetting foreign mariners. Background checks are conducted on Americans by the Coast Guard and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). However, these same background checks are not performed on foreign crews. The Coast Guard does, on the other hand, require crew lists from all vessels entering U.S. ports. Unfortunately, no method is in place to ensure these crews are who they claim to be. Although this is an issue of security for all cargo ships, it is even more critical for ships carrying potentially

dangerous cargo, such as LNG.

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Ext. Terrorism ! T/ Internal Link (2/2) LNG provides a target for terrorist attacks. Kaplan, 6- Associate Editor of the Council on Foreign Relations February 27, 2006. Eben, "Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?", http://www.cfr.org/publication/9810/. AP. Are LNG ships and terminals potential terrorist targets? Yes, because of LNG's explosive potential, experts say. Al-Qaeda, for example, has specifically cited LNG as a desirable target, says Rob Knake, senior associate at Good Harbor Consulting, LLC, a homeland-security private consulting firm. Pipelines are not as attractive because the flow of gas can quickly be cut off and an explosion easily contained. Terminals make better targets because an attack could result in a massive fire that could potentially kill scores of people. They are also good targets because "if you take out those terminals, you could have a significant disruption [in the U.S. gas supply,]" Knake says. But an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. The most attractive targets are the boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold. A report, put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of 20,000 injuries. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so large, in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an explosion." The Sandia National Laboratories report assesses four potential ways terrorists may target an LNG tanker and the worst potential outcomes: Ramming: Terrorists may attempt to drive another vessel into an LNG tanker or to divert a tanker into a stationary object. Unless the tanker is struck at a very high speed or the object striking it is very sharp, it is unlikely that a breach of the hull will occur. However, if such a breach did occur, there is a

chance LNG would spill out and cause a massive fire. Triggered Explosion: Explosives, such as mines, may be placed in the path of an LNG tanker or on the tanker itself. If powerful enough, such an explosion could cause the cargo to spill and ignite. External Attack: There are several ways terrorists may attempt to assault an LNG tanker. The 2000 U.S.S. Cole attack, in which terrorists detonated explosives after pulling alongside the warship in a small vessel, is often cited as an example of such an attack. Other possible methods of attack include firing missiles or rocket-propelled grenades at a tanker and or air strikes. Tankers are particularly vulnerable as they traverse inland waterways en route to their destinations. The impact of an assault would vary depending on the size and location of the attack, the worst-case scenario being a massive explosion. Hijacking: The most catastrophic scenario involving an LNG tanker involves terrorists taking control of an LNG tanker, sailing it toward a major population area and detonating the cargo.

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Aff ! T/ Safety Accidents will occur and are highly dangerous Ewall, 07 – founder and director of Energy Justice Network. (Mike, "FACT SHEET:Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)" November 2007. http://www.energyjustice.net/naturalgas/lngfact sheet.pdf) //DG Accidents Terrorism isn’t the only risk. LNG carries an inherent risk of accidents, as do all industrial facilities. LNG’s properties make it uniquely dangerous if there were to be a spill or fire. According to a December 2004 report by Sandia National Laboratory,14 an accident or terrorist attack on a liquefied natural gas tanker could cause “major injuries and significant damage to structures” a third of a mile away and could cause second-degree burns on people more than a mile away. A “worst case scenario” could set structures aflame out to 2,067 feet and burn people as far as 6,949 feet away. The report’s idea of “worst case” didn’t include the actual worst case, failing to study larger ships that are planned and assuming that only some of the LNG tanker contents are released. FERC allows damaging thermal radiation beyond the site boundary as long as its level is below 5 kilowatts per square meter. However, it is not until the thermal radiation intensity falls below 1.6 kilowatts per square meter that there is no damage to exposed humans.15

An LNG attack would be like a nuclear bomb going off, injuring many Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds, staffwriter, "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004, www.projo.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng.134600.html AMK A terrorist attack on an LNG tanker "would have the force of a small nuclear explosion," according to the chairman of Lloyd's, a British insurer of natural gas port facilities like the ones being proposed in Fall River and Providence. The assertion, which is contested by industry experts, was in a speech that the chairman, Peter Levene, delivered last night to business leaders in Houston. Levene described Texas as a "state at risk" and said that securing its remote oil facilities is a "particular challenge." "Gas carriers too, whether at sea or in ports, make obvious targets," said Levene. "Specialists reckon that a terrorist attack on an LNG tanker would have the force of a small nuclear explosion."

LNG explosions could lead to massive fires and intense burns, even from far distances Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds, staffwriter, "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004, www.projo.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng.134600.html AMK One report does describe hypothetical fires that might erupt if gas leaks from a tanker in its liquid form changes into a gaseous form and ignites when it comes into contact with a flame. In one instance, the blaze, in less than a minute, would be capable of inflicting third-degree burns a little less than a mile away. Bryan Lee, a spokesman for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said federal regulators have not changed their analysis. "Just about any expert will come up with a different assessment regarding LNG depending on the parameters and assumptions they have," said Lee, who emphasized the LNG shipping industry's safe track record. Regulators, he said, will review the safety of different LNG proposals on a caseby-case basis. "We stand by all of our analysis on this matter," he said.

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Aff ! T/- Environment Module A. LNG hurts environment through reducing innovation and causing ecosystem destruction Greenparty, 4 ("LNG: The Next Battle Line," Reprinted from Synthesis/Regeneration #35, Fall 2004, www.greenparty.org/LNG.html) Opposition to LNG terminal construction is more than "not-in-my-backyard." Any increase the United States' dependency on foreign fossil fuels can only intensify the nation's existing imperialistic politics. Furthermore, the greatly stepped-up pace of natural gas extraction outside the US envisioned by LNG proponents threatens native ecosystems around the world. In Bolivia ( with gas reserves of 52.3 trillion cubic feet ), two in-the-works projects, Yabog and Gasyrg, will open forest ecosystems to commercial exploitation and Pacific LNG (a consortium made-up of British Gas Group, BP-Amoco, Bridas, and Spain's RepsolYPF) plans to construct a 700 km pipeline from Bolivia to a port in Chile from which LNG will be shipped to a Baja California terminal proposed by the American corporation Sempra, a project hardly popular with the Bolivian people. On October 17, 2003, Bolivia's

President, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, was forced to resign from office and flee to Miami after tens of thousands of workers, farmers and indigenous people marched on the Capital in protest of Lozada's give-away of Bolivian resources. 74 protesters were killed. Bolivia's unemployment rate is 30% and 70% of Bolivians live in poverty. Some Greens have hesitated to come out strongly against LNG for fear this will slow down conversion of "dirty" coal-fueled to "clean" gas-fueled power plant. Here we see the shallowness of Green reformism. Aside from the issue of how clean mass methane-fueled generation really is-or how large the world's fossil gas reserve really is-not to oppose LNG construction is to forego one of the few opportunities available to move society to the mass conversion to solar energy that Greens have supposedly always as a principal goal. The new role for LNG forced on the ruling class by the depletion of US domestic wells in fact offers the same leverage for activism that opposition to nuclear power did in the 1970s. With fossil fuel reserves moving towards peak and decline around the world ( whatever time frame one accepts ), resistance to anything less than full conversion to democratically controlled renewable energy will, in effect, eat up the time global corporations have to work out plans for conversion to mass coal burning, plutonium breeder reactors, or ( if it is ever possible ) fusion power, all of which are intrinsically centralized, exploitative technologies. Here, in other words, is an area where decentralized, peoples' resistance-such as the Green movement has pioneered-can have an effect on a much wider social field than that of the immediate points of confrontation, in fact on the nature of our total future society. In this sense, the LNG issue has the

potential to be the next major battle line.

B. Extinction David N. Diner (Judge Advocate General’s Corps of US Army) 1994 Military Law Review, Lexis No species has ever dominated its fellow species as man has. In most cases, people have assumed the God-like power of life and death -extinction or survival -- over the plants and animals of the world. For most of history, mankind pursued this domination with a singleminded determination to master the world, tame the wilderness, and exploit nature for the maximum benefit of the human race. n67 In past mass extinction episodes, as many as ninety percent of the existing species perished, and yet the world moved forward, and new species replaced the old. So why should the world be concerned now? The prime reason is the world's survival. Like all

animal life, humans live off of other species. At some point, the number of species could decline to the point at which the ecosystem fails, and then humans also would become extinct. No one knows how many [*171] species the world needs to support human life, and to find out -- by allowing certain species to become extinct -would not be sound policy. In addition to food, species offer many direct and indirect benefits to mankind. n68 2. Ecological Value. -- Ecological value is the value that species have in maintaining the environment. Pest, n69 erosion, and flood control are prime benefits certain species provide to man. Plants and animals also provide additional ecological services -- pollution control, n70 oxygen production, sewage treatment, and biodegradation. n71 3. Scientific and Utilitarian Value. -- Scientific value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of the world. n72 Without plants and animals, a large portion of basic scientific research would be impossible. Utilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw from plants and animals. n73 Only a fraction of the [*172] earth's species have been examined, and mankind may someday desperately need the species that it is exterminating today. To accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew n74 could save mankind may be difficult for some. Many, if not most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect role, because their extirpations could affect a directly useful species negatively. In a closely interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species affects other species dependent on it. n75 Moreover, as the number of species decline, the effect of each new extinction on the remaining species increases dramatically. n76 4. Biological Diversity. -- The main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. n77 As the current mass extinction has progressed, the world's biological diversity generally has decreased. This trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and

Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems within species by reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carry serious future implications.

inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." n79 By causing widespread extinctions, humans

have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

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Ext. Environment ! T/ Internal Link Natural gas production results in loss of ecosystems Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. 01-07, June, 2007 In addition to the environmental damage caused by fossil fuel combustion, the production o fossil fuels and uranium – the drilling, mining, processing and transportation – produces substantial amount of pollution and toxic waste. In the United States, there are more than 150 refineries, 4,000 offshore platforms, 410 underground gas storage fields, 125 nuclear waste storage facilities, 160,000 miles of oil pipelines, and1.4 million miles of natural gas pipelines. Each can degrade their surrounding environment and negatively impact the health and safety of Americans.

More evidence Dr. Benjamin Sovacool, Senior Research Fellow for the Network for New Energy Choices in New York Christopher Cooper Executive Director of the Network for New Energy Choices Renewing America: The Case for Federal Leadership on a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), Network for New Energy Choices • Report No. 01-07, June, 2007 Oil and natural gas storage facilities, in addition to significantly adding to the cost of natural gas and oil infrastructure, are susceptible to serious accidents that can pollute the air and water of local communities. One report from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory noted that leaks can occur due to improper well design, construction, maintenance, operation.320 The report cautioned that leakage from natural gas storage structures can be especially hazardous when they cause natural gas to migrate into drinking-water aquifers or escape to the surface, creating a “significant safety risk.” Leaked natural gas can significantly endanger life and property, water resources, vegetation, and crops.321

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Aff AT: Levene Their expert Levene is denied – his evidence is false and biased Providence Journal 4 (Mark Reynolds, staffwriter, "Lloyd's executive likens LNG attack to nuclear explosion" 9-21-2004, www.projo.com/massachusetts/content/projo_20040921_ma21lng.134600.html AMK Levene did not name the specialists in his remarks, although a text of his speech contains a footnote. The footnote attributes the observation to the author of an article posted, in an abbreviated form, on the Web site of Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor in July. The same abstract, apparently authored by the same person, Dr. J.C.K. Daly, was also posted on the Internet weblog Talk Show American. Levene also did not specify Texas LNG port facilities and tanker ships that might be at risk. Records kept by federal regulators show that several LNG port facilities have been proposed in Texas. They do not show any existing facilities. Levene's company, Lloyd's, is the world's second-largest commercial insurer. The chairman could not be reached for comment yesterday. Some critics of the proposal in Fall River have spoken in apocalyptic terms of potential LNG disasters. But to date, no official reports by government regulators have made comparisons between the various LNG catastrophes that experts have hypothesized and destruction from an atomic bomb.

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AT: The Coastguard can Solve The Coast Guard will not be able to protect the natural gas imported to the U.S. Natural Gas Week, 8 (John A. Sullivan, "GAO Report: LNG Tankers Remain Vulnerable; CG Said Unprepared," January 14, 2008, lexis) –CMM The seaborne supply chain bringing natural gas to the US is becoming even more exposed to terrorist attack and disruptions and the very agency charged with defending the nation's ports and harbors is getting stretched dangerously thin. That was the conclusion of a US Government Accountability Office report released last week that challenged the nation's ability to protect its energy supply chain. In particular, the GAO report said the Coast Guard cannot meet its own requirements for protecting either LNG carriers or oil tankers entering US waters. "A lack of resources has hindered some Coast Guard units from meeting their self-imposed requirements for security activities, such as escorts and boardings ," according to the GAO report. For fiscal year 2006, the Coast Guard allocated four new ships for LNG security, but no requests were made for additional resources in 2007 or FY 2008. According to the federal Energy Information Administration, two LNG-laden tankers arrive at one of five US terminals every three days, but that number is expected to quadruple by 2015 as demand grows and more receiving capacity opens. The Department of Energy predicts that the US will have to increase natural gas imports by 600% over the next 25 years to meet demand. LNG is expected to play a large role in that, with imports projected to increase eight-fold to 4.4 trillion cubic feet per year. "These increased demands could cause the Coast Guard to continue to be unable to meet the standards it has set for keeping US ports secure," the GAO said. "We have received the report and are currently reviewing it," Coast Guard spokeswoman Angela Hirsch told Natural Gas Week . "LNG tankers are some of the most heavily regulated and closely guarded vessels that come into any port in the US ," Hirsch said. "There are already very strong protocols that the Coast Guard has. These are in place and are being followed." Some of those security measures include the LNG tankers being escorted from the harbor entrance to the terminal by armed Coast Guard vessels. Other security measures include shutting down the port to any other traffic hours before the LNG carrier arrives and keeping an exclusion zone around the vessel while it is offloading its cargo. According to the GAO, the fact that new LNG terminals -- particularly along the US Gulf Coast -- are being built and scheduled to begin coming online in several years, is the main reason that red flags are being raised about the Coast Guard. "Some units' workloads are likely to grow as new liquefied natural gas facilities are added," according to the GAO. "Coast Guard headquarters has not developed plans for shifting resources among units." The GAO said that while there are multiple response plans in place to deal with an attack on a vessel or LNG facility, stakeholders face three main challenges in making them work. The first is dealing with a spill and a terrorist threat. Ports, facilities and emergency service agencies plan and prepare for both, but not together. The second is strictly economic, as "ports generally lack plans for dealing with economic issues, such as prioritizing the movement of vessels after a port reopens." The third challenge is "some ports report difficulty in securing response resources" needed to respond to either a manmade or natural disaster. A similar GAO report in March led to a hearing by the congressional Committee on Homeland Security. During that hearing, USCG Rear Adm. Brian Salerno testified that of the 40,000 LNG shipments delivered worldwide since 1959, no breaches of cargo tanks have occurred and of the 30 LNG tanker incidents that have happened since 2002, all were minor and none involved the loss of the ship or its cargo.