Natural Gas Da - Scholars

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

1 Natural Gas DA

Natural Gas DA Index Natural Gas DA Index......................................................................................................................1 Natural Gas DA 1NC.......................................................................................................................2 UQ- Stable Now...............................................................................................................................3 Flat Prices= Flat Production............................................................................................................4 UQ- Demand High...........................................................................................................................5 UQ- Demand High...........................................................................................................................6 UQ- Demand stay High...................................................................................................................7 A2: Consumer Demand Down.........................................................................................................8 Link- Alternative Energy Trades-off................................................................................................9 Link-Demand Key to Flaring.........................................................................................................10 Link-Demand key to Flaring..........................................................................................................11 Link-Decreasing Oil Prices Decreases Gas...................................................................................12 Perception Link..............................................................................................................................13 Flaring Impact- Warming...............................................................................................................14 Flaring Impact-Acid Rain..............................................................................................................15 Flaring Increases Acid Rain...........................................................................................................16 Flaring Impact- Species ................................................................................................................17 Flaring Impact- Oceans .................................................................................................................18 Ozone Impact Extension................................................................................................................19 A2: Not Enough Flaring to Matter.................................................................................................20 Low Prices Decrease Production...................................................................................................21 Low Prices Hurt Businesses...........................................................................................................22 A2: Low Prices Good for Consumers............................................................................................23 A2: Negative Feedbacks/Backstopping.........................................................................................24 A2: Status Qou Decrease Natural Gas...........................................................................................25 Aff-UQ- Demand Low...................................................................................................................26 Aff-Econ Turn................................................................................................................................27 Aff- Econ Turn...............................................................................................................................28 Aff- Econ Turn...............................................................................................................................29 Aff- Flaring Link turn....................................................................................................................30 Aff- A2: Other Bad Chemicals in Flares........................................................................................31 Aff- Empirically Denied................................................................................................................32 Aff- No Warming Impact...............................................................................................................33 Aff- Gas Flaring Good...................................................................................................................34 Aff- Negative Feedbacks...............................................................................................................35 Aff- Impact Inevitable....................................................................................................................36

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

2 Natural Gas DA

Natural Gas DA 1NC 1. Natural gas demand is high now. Marketwatch July 15, 08 (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/summer-natural-gas-costsunprecedented/story.aspx?guid={EA0206D0-1238-4213-A198-1A0D37E4141C}&dist=hppr) In prior years, the price of gas has dropped significantly in the summer as the use of natural gas for space heating decreased. This pattern afforded utilities the opportunity to refill their storage fields at lower prices, which led to lower prices in the following winter (compared to the daily spot market) when the gas was used by customers.

Now that more electric utilities are turning to natural gas to produce electricity, year-round demand for natural gas is more constant, and this increase in demand has led to unprecedented summer costs. 2. Alternative energy incentives decrease the demand for natural gas and increase flaring. Gerner et al 4 (Franz Gerner, Bent Svensson, and Sascha Djumena Franz Gerner is an energy specialist,Bent Svensson program manager, ad Sascha Djumena a senior energy specialist, with the World Bank Group’s Oil and Gas Policy Division, Gas Flaring and Venting, Public Policy for the Private Sector, “A Regulatory Framework and Incentives for Gas Utilization,” October 2004, http://rru.worldbank.org/Documents/279-Gerner-Svensson-Djumena.pdf)

Where operators have the right to sell associated gas, they will decide in favor of that option rather than flaring or venting only if they have access to domestic or international energy markets and if energy prices are favorable. Many developing countries lack both a domestic gas market and the infrastructure (liquefied natural gas facilities, export-oriented pipelines) for selling associated gas in international markets. Moreover, domestic sales are often hindered by distorted energy pric-ing, monopolistic behavior by vertically inte-grated state-owned utilities, and lack of a transparent legal and regulatory framework allow-ing third parties to build and own a network for selling gas to industries and power generators. In many developing countries the relatively low financial returns developers can expect from investing in the construction of a gas net-work have undermined the prospects for devel-oping a gas market. Part of the

subsidies for competing energy sources (oil, coal, nuclear, hydropower), which lead to low prices for competing fuels. But in many oil-producing countries the per-ceived value of associated gas has problem is often

changed with the rise in international natural gas prices since the early 1970s and as economic and budgetary pressures have led

Higher gas prices have encouraged many governments and companies to develop gas infrastructure, eventually providing opportunities to market associated gas governments to abolish energy subsidies. domestically or interna-tionally.

3. Flaring leads to extinction from ozone depletion Osai 2 (Jason, Faculty of the Social Sciences of the University of Port Harcourt, “A Niger Deltan Denounces Shell's False Public Relations in Its Community Outreach In Niger Delta,” " http://www.waado.org/Environment/OilCompanies/Shell-Communities/ShellsFalsePR.html) Talking of the impact of gas flaring on the environment, in 1984/85, I was part of a team of professors and graduate students from the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Port Harcourt that undertook a field trip to what is now called the Orashi Region. I guided the team to the gas flare site at Obagi, Obrikom, Ebocha, Ukwugba and Izombe. From one site to another, we took sample of cassava and other crops; we observed the plantains, palm trees and the general vegetation within a certain radius of the gas flared racks and we noted that though the cassava stems and leaves looked unaffected, their tubers were rotten. We also observed a pathetic degeneration from the lush vegetation with giant trees that used to be a rustic meadow; giant racks, spewing roaring flames into the sky had taken the place of the giant trees. These findings were published in Newswatch. It is, therefore, an insult on the collective intellect of the peoples of the Niger Delta for Shell to aver that "gas flaring is not detrimental to the immediate environment." Matter-of-factly, the statement

humanity, which is facing imminent extinction as a result of the depletion of the ozone layer - a phenomenon that gas flaring contributes immensely to. Incidentally, I did my administrative internship in 1977 at the Cleveland Division of Air Pollution Control, Cleveland, Ohio, USA is an insult on the collective intellect of

and I think I learned quite a bit about pollution and its negative impact on the environment - immediate or otherwise.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

3 Natural Gas DA

UQ- Stable Now Gas flaring is stable now EOS 7 (Weekly newspaper published by the American Geophysical Union, Vol 88., No 37, 359, “Satellite study of natural gas flaring,” September 11, http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007EO370003.shtml)

Global flaring of natural gas remained largely stable from 1995 through 2006, according to the first globally consistent survey of gas flaring, conducted using low-light imaging data from the U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. Flaring is a widespread method of disposing of natural gas when oil production and processing occurs in remote areas or in areas that lack infrastructure to make use of the gas.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

4 Natural Gas DA

Flat Prices= Flat Production Current flat prices have created flat production. Federal Reserve 7 (Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, The Beige Book, http://www.federalreserve.gov/Fomc/BeigeBook/2007/20070725/FullReport.htm) Oil and gas producers reported production levels were flat to increasing since late May and on a year-over-year basis. On balance, prices received for oil were flat to rising year-over-year while natural gas prices were flat to declining. Material and equipment costs were stable during the past six weeks but increased since last year. Limited hiring was reported with little workforce expansion anticipated in the near future. More than half our contacts said they have difficulty finding skilled field personnel. Almost all producers told us that wages are continuing to rise.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

5 Natural Gas DA

UQ- Demand High Demand and natural gas prices are high now. Portland Business Journal July 16, 8 (http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2008/07/14/daily22.html) And Cascade Natural Gas, with customers in central Oregon, expects prices to be 15 percent to 20 percent higher than a year ago. Any change in customer rates would take effect Nov. 1 if approved.

Growing demand, tighter supplies and international market pressures this year are driving the cost increases, according to the PUC. "This is very much the opposite of what we saw last year," Ken Zimmerman, the PUC's gas analyst, said in a news release. "Demand year ago."

is robust while supplies remain tight. As a result, wholesale prices are significantly higher than a

Demand is rising now. OPB News July 15, 2008 (Natural Gas Prices Expected To Skyrocket This Winter, http://news.opb.org/article/2600-natural-gasprices-expected-skyrocket-winter/) Dan Kirschner is director of the industry group Northwest Gas Association, which represents utilities in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. Dan Kirschner: “Natural

gas costs have tripled over the last seven years, and rising global demand for natural gas as well as regional demand will only intensify this trend.” The Northwest imports nearly all of its natural gas from either Canada or the Rocky Mountain states. The utilities say they’ll be stepping up efforts to promote energy-efficient home improvements in advance of the rate hike.

Demand is high and draining storage levels. Inside F.E.R.C. 8 (Guide to gas pipeline regulation and the agency's role in reshaping the electric utility industry, “ Analyst says US gas storage will not be full by end of summer without more imports,” May 12, Lexis)

If imports of liquefied natural gas stay at record-low levels, the nation's storage inventories are unlikely to fill by the end of the summer cooling season, Goldman Sachs said last week. Domestic gas demand has strengthened even as LNG imports have hovered below 1 Bcf/d, the investment bank said in a report. Gas output has had to increase to meet rising demand. Inside F.E.R.C. 8 (Guide to gas pipeline regulation and the agency's role in reshaping the electric utility industry, “ Analyst says US gas storage will not be full by end of summer without more imports,” May 12, Lexis)

Helping to mitigate some of the supply/demand crunch created by the lack of LNG receipts is an "impressive" increase in domestic gas output, it said. "Even though we remain skeptical of such high levels for US domestic production, the overall growth trend seems stronger than we had anticipated," Goldman Sachs said. It therefore raised its March-December 2008 US natural gas production outlook by 300,000 Mcf/d to 54.4 Bcf/d, a 1.6 Bcf/d increase from 2007 levels.

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6 Natural Gas DA

UQ- Demand High Natural gas prices and demand are rising now. Greenwire 8 ( July 2, Oil and Gas: LNG Prices could soon catch up with crude--- energy ministers,” Lexis) Natural gas, which is currently trading at about a 40 percent discount to oil, may reach the record-high prices of crude as demand for the cleaner-burning fuel increases, the energy ministers from Qatar, Algeria and Iran said. Natural gas in Britain sells for £0.7135 per therm, or the equivalent of $85 per barrel based on energy content. Brent crude, by comparison, traded at $141 today. Natural gas prices in the United Kingdom rose 38 percent this year, lagging behind the 50 percent advance in oil. But natural gas use increased this year by 3.1 percent. Oil increased only 1.1 percent, according to BP PLC data. Global demand for natural gas is rising. Oilgram News 8 (May 14, “Qatar says unable to meet new natural gas demand,” Lexis) Qatar cannot meet any further demand for its natural gas?from either domestic or international buyers?until a moratorium on further North field developments is lifted, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah was quoted as saying May 13. "We have demands for extra gas supplies from consumers around the world [but] we cannot meet their demand due to the moratorium on additional North Field gas extraction," the Gulf Times newspaper quoted Attiyah as saying. "Even our own projects have been asked not to seek extra gas until the North Field moratorium is lifted," he said.

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7 Natural Gas DA

UQ- Demand stay High Natural gas demand will continue to grow through 2025. American Petroleum Institute 8 (May 16, Meeting Future Natural Gas Demand, http://www.naturalgasfacts.org/factsheets/meeting_demand.html) The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that consumption of natural gas will increase by more than one-third between now and 2025. Demand will grow because natural gas is a versatile, clean and, historically, economical fuel. It heats and cools homes, provides fuel for cooking, generates electricity (with lower emissions than any other fossil fuel), and serves as the raw material for petrochemicals used to make everything from contact lenses to fertilizers. Natural gas demand will remain high through 2009. Targeted News Service 8 ( June 10, “Rising Natural Gas Prices And Lower Hydroelectric Power Supplies Expected To Increase Electricity Costs,” Lexis)

Starting in October 2008, these factors are expected to increase electricity costs to PG&E customers by approximately $482 million, resulting in a roughly 4.5 percent rate increase, to be collected over a 15 month period through December 2009. In 2009, high demand for natural gas - one of the cleanest fossil fuels available to generate electricity - is expected to continue upward pressures on the price of natural gas and in turn lead to further increases in customer electricity rates. As a result, electricity costs in 2009 are anticipated to increase by approximately $340 million. This will result in a less than 2 percent increase over the rates projected to be in effect this October. Natural gas demands will grow through 2009. Targeted News Service 8 ( June 10, “Rising Natural Gas Prices And Lower Hydroelectric Power Supplies Expected To Increase Electricity Costs,” Lexis)

In 2008, natural gas prices have increased by 30 percent and are forecasted to remain high in 2009. Soaring natural gas prices are caused by a tight supply-demand balance in the national market, lower imports of liquefied natural gas, and the rising cost of crude oil. Because much of the nation's electric supply is generated by plants using natural gas, increased gas costs are also affecting electric prices.

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8 Natural Gas DA

A2: Consumer Demand Down Industry demand has been more than offset weakened consumer consumption. Inside F.E.R.C. 8 (Guide to gas pipeline regulation and the agency's role in reshaping the electric utility industry, “ Analyst says US gas storage will not be full by end of summer without more imports,” May 12, Lexis)

On the demand side, lower-than-expected consumption by residential and powergeneration customers has been more than offset in recent months by higher industrial demand, the report said. In addition, demand for gas in Mexico continues to be strong, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its March-December pipeline export forecast by 200,000 Mcf/d.

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9 Natural Gas DA

Link- Alternative Energy Trades-off Alternative energy competes with natural gas prices. Matsuyama 6 (W. Brian, CEO of Cascade Natural Gas Corp, http://sec.edgaronline.com/2006/12/08/0001104659-06-080246/Section4.asp) The market price of alternative energy sources such as coal, electricity, oil and steam is the primary competitive factor affecting the demand for the Company's gas transportation services. Certain large industrial customers have, or may acquire, the capacity to be able to use one or more alternative energy sources or shift production to facilities outside the Company's service area if the price of natural gas and delivery services increases significantly. Natural gas has typically been less expensive than these alternative energy sources. However, generally over the past four years, natural gas prices have been higher and more volatile, making some of these alternative energy sources more economical or, for other reasons, more attractive than natural gas. The Company cannot predict the future stability of natural gas prices. Should these customers convert their requirements to another form of energy, the Company's revenues, earnings and cash flow would be adversely affected. Alternative energy displaces natural gas demand. Gas Market Report 8 (April 4, Inside F.E.R.C.'s, “Gas-fired generation needs may decline this year following hefty 2007 demand,” Lexis/

"If 2008 hydro generation simply equals 2006 levels, hydro power would displace the equivalent of 1.2 Bcf/d of natural gas demand versus 2007 levels," he said, adding that decreased nuclear capacity should shave off about 200,000 Mcf/d of that displaced gas on a nationwide level. Alternative energy sources compete with natural gas. Composites World, 8 (June 30, “Market Trends: Alternative energy growth creating secular demand for composites,” http://www.compositesworld.com/columns/market-trends-alternative-energy-growth-creating-secular-demand-for-composites.aspx)

Alternative energy sources, such as solar, wind, and geothermal, are finally emerging as contenders alongside our primary electric-power-producing fossil fuels, natural gas and coal (but not oil), primarily because these technologies are ready for widespread distribution and adoption, based on average pricing for electricity. To help these alternatives compete in the growing energy marketplace, governments in some areas of the world, at least, are offering significant incentives that make investments in alternative energy attractive. Germany and Japan, for example, have funded developmental programs in solar energy that have been largely successful. China, simply based on need, is bankrolling various government investments in alternative energy, as are Italy and Spain. In the U.S., the growth of alternative energy sources, particularly wind power, is strong thanks to individual state renewable portfolio standards. Yet the federal government continues to drag its feet on long-term extensions of the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and the wind/geothermal production tax credit (PTC) — both of which are set to expire in December of this year.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

10 Natural Gas DA

Link-Demand Key to Flaring 1. High natural gas demand reduces global flaring. Baca 2 (Vice President of Affiliation: Health, Safety& Environment, British Petroleum, “Capital Hill Hearing Testimony Committee: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Headline: Technology and Transfer Programs Testimony, September 18, http://energy.senate.gov/hearings/testimony.cfm?id=412&wit_id=1109)

One potential solution to global gas flaring exists in the form of the North American natural gas market where demand is expected to grow substantially in the coming decade (to @30 TCF/YR). It is generally agreed that traditional supply sources in North America will be insufficient and therefore, other supply sources will have to be tapped in order to meet growing demand. Supply sources include Canadian and Alaskan natural gas and LNG from Trinidad and West Africa. We believe that these LNG supply sources can compete in the US market and will play a role in meeting demand. However, post-September 11 safety and security issues have complicated the LNG debate and have forced governments to re- examine policies related to sighting and expansion of LNG facilities.

2. Strong natural gas markets key to stop flaring Baca 2 (Vice President of Affiliation: Health, Safety& Environment, British Petroleum, “Capital Hill Hearing Testimony Committee: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Headline: Technology and Transfer Programs Testimony, September 18, http://energy.senate.gov/hearings/testimony.cfm?id=412&wit_id=1109) However, substantial reductions in flaring during the next 20 years may be possible if current national and corporate policies and strategies designed to reduce flaring continue. These reductions can be achieved by greater gas utilization in international and domestic

single most important step that can be taken to address gas flaring on an international scale is the further development of international and domestic natural gas markets. If these markets develop, incentives will be in place to encourage local governments to monetize their natural gas resources, rather than allowing them to be vented. Further development of international markets, site use and re-injection. The key challenge is developing markets for this resource. From BP’s perspective, the

gas markets will create positive social and economic benefits including lower GHG emission, poverty reduction and cost-effective, reliable, clean fuels through greater energy supply diversity.

3. Natural gas market key to reducing flaring GAO 4 (Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04809.pdf) Although the role of the federal government in this area is limited, especially at the international level, GAO did see opportunities to contribute. An important first step would be better data reporting, which would clarify the scope of the problem and allow targeting of areas where flaring and venting are most significant. Another step would be improved oversight to reduce venting of methane on federal

"a robust natural gas market, along with a supporting infrastructure, would have the most significant impact on the reduction of flaring and venting." Accordingly, "changes to natural gas markets, and to the transportation infrastructure for moving gas to these lands and offshore areas leased for oil or gas production. Overall,

markets, will likely be needed to offer producers an economic incentive to sell the associated gas rather than flare or vent it."

4. Natural gas utilization is key to preventing flaring Gerner et al 4 (Franz Gerner, Bent Svensson, and Sascha Djumena Franz Gerner is an energy specialist,Bent Svensson

program manager, ad Sascha Djumena a senior energy specialist, with the World Bank Group’s Oil and Gas Policy Division, Gas Flaring and Venting, Public Policy for the Private Sector, “A Regulatory Framework and Incentives for Gas Utilization,” October 2004, http://rru.worldbank.org/Documents/279-Gerner-Svensson-Djumena.pdf) Developing countries account for more than 85 percent of gas flaring and venting, with Nigeria, Iraq, and the Islamic Republic of Iran each flaring or venting 10–20 bcm of associated gas annually (figure 1). The Russian Federation flares about 16 bcm a year. Conversely,

the uti-lization of associated gas tends to be low in devel-oping countries, as shown by the volume of gas flared and vented relative to oil production. It is particularly low in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Iraq, which flare or vent 31–61 cubic meters of associated gas for every barrel of oil produced. In contrast, gas utilization is much higher in such countries as Norway, the United States, and the United Kingdom, which flare or vent less than 2 cubic meters for every barrel of oil.

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11 Natural Gas DA

Link-Demand key to Flaring 5. High gas prices key to prevent flaring GAO 4 (Opportunities to Improve Data and Reducing Emissions Requestor: Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, July 14, http://www.gao.gov/htext/d04809.html) Although most natural gas production involves extracting gas from wells drilled into underground gas reservoirs, some natural gas is generated as a by-product of oil production. Gas produced during oil production is called associated gas. During oil and gas production, it may be necessary to burn or release natural gas for a number of operational reasons, including lowering the pressure to ensure safety. Burning natural gas is known as flaring, while releasing natural gas directly into the atmosphere is called venting. In addition to the operational reasons for flaring and venting,

in areas where the primary purpose of drilling is to produce oil, producers flare or vent associated natural gas because no local market exists for the gas and transporting it to a market may not be economically feasible.2 Natural gas prices are a major determinant of whether associated gas is flared and vented or sold. Associated natural gas would be sold if prices were high enough over a long enough period to justify building the infrastructure--pipelines and ports--to transport the gas to a market. In the United States, there are well-developed natural gas markets and infrastructure to reduce the flaring and venting of associated natural gas.

6.

High gas prices stop flaring.

New Scientist Environment 7 (July 12, Rising prices could end wasteful gas flaring, http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/energy-fuels/dn12250-rising-prices-could-end-wasteful-gas-flaring.html)

Dwindling energy supplies and rising gas prices could soon make gas flaring unprofitable, say researchers, saving billions of dollars' worth of natural gas from going up in smoke. Historically, producers have simply burned gas found alongside oil if it was too difficult and costly to recover and sell it. In recent years, concerns about global warming have added to pressure to end the practice. But analysts say harsh economic reality is the factor that really concentrates minds. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that 168 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas were flared in 2006 – equivalent to 27% of the US natural gas consumption (read NOAA's gas flaring report). NOAA says the flared gas could have fetched $69 billion if sold. "Until you start to put real value into gas prices, you might as well flare. But now gas prices are getting to the point where it's worth collecting," says Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in the UK.

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12 Natural Gas DA

Link-Decreasing Oil Prices Decreases Gas Decreased oil prices decrease the use of natural gas. Brown 3 (Stephen, Director of Energy Economics and Microecnomic Policy Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "U.S. Natural Gas Markets in Turmoil Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on The Scientific Inventory of Oil and Gas Resources on Federal Lands The Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources Committee on Resources U.S. House of Representatives Thursday, June 19, http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/108cong/energy/2003jun19/brown.htm)

For some industries and electric utilities, natural gas and residual fuel oil (a petroleum product) are good substitutes. Although declining in number, these energy users are able to switch back and forth between these fuels quickly, depending upon which is cheaper. Rising oil prices push these energy users toward natural gas, and falling oil prices attracts them back to residual fuel oil. Consequently, economic research finds that oil and natural gas prices have tended to track each other over long periods of time.

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13 Natural Gas DA

Perception Link The price of natural gas is determined by the perception of policies, not necessarily supplies. Houston Geological Society 6 (November 8, http://www.hgs.org/en/articles/printview.asp?1011) In the case of natural gas, sentiment guides what suppliers believe that gas is worth and are willing to pay today, and a few months into the future. The fact that the is awash in natural gas supply, at least for the near-future of several years, is less important than the perception that sufficient gas is immediately available to be sent on its way to end users.

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14 Natural Gas DA

Flaring Impact- Warming Flaring contributes to global warming. GAO 4 (July, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04809.pdf)

Although gas is sometimes flared or vented because it has too little economic value to justify its capture, flaring or venting this gas into the atmosphere has an environmental cost. In general, flaring emits carbon dioxide, while venting releases methane. 3 These and other chemical compounds found in the earth’s atmosphere create a greenhouse effect. Under normal conditions, when sunlight strikes the earth’s surface, some of it is reflected back towards space as infrared radiation or heat. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane impede this reflection by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Methane is 23 times more potent than carbon dioxide in its ability to warm the atmosphere. While these gases occur naturally on earth and are emitted into the atmosphere, the expanded industrialization of the world over the last 150 years has increased the amount of emissions from human activity (known as anthropogenic emissions) beyond the level that the earth’s natural processes can handle. Scientists generally agree that these increased greenhouse gases are contributing to global warming, which can have detrimental effects on the climate. In general, the environmental costs of flaring and venting are not borne by the responsible parties because there are no restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. However, nations have proposed international agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions, including those released during flaring and venting. Flaring and venting lead to global warming. Elvidge et al 7 (Christopher D., Earth Observation Group, NOAA National Geophysical Data, Kimberly E. Baugh, Benjamin T. Tuttle, Ara T. Howard  Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences University of Colorado, Boulder, Dee W. Pack, The Aerospace Corporation, Cristina Milesi,  Foundation of California State University, Monterey, Edward H. Erwin, NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, “A Twelve Year Record of National and Global Gas  Flaring Volumes Estimated Using Satellite Data,” Final Report to the World Bank, May 30, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/interest/DMSP_flares_20070530_b.pdf)

Gas flaring is a widely used practice for the disposal of natural gas in petroleum producing areas where there is no infrastructure to make use of the gas. The companion procedure called venting is the release of gas without combustion. Venting is not only dangerous, but releases gases known to absorb thermal radiation much better that carbon dioxide, contributing to the greenhouse affect. Gas flaring is widely recognized as a waste of energy and an added load of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Because the flaring combustion is incomplete, substantial amounts of soot and carbon monoxide are produced, contributing to air pollution problems. Information on the spatial and temporal distribution of gas flaring have been available previously due the sparse and unverifiable nature of the reporting done by countries and petroleum companies..

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15 Natural Gas DA

Flaring Impact-Acid Rain 1. Flaring leads to acid rain Environment Canada 1 (http://www.ec.gc.ca/cleanairairpur/caol/OGEB/oilgas/flaring/flaring_general2_e.htm)

Acid deposition is the combination of nitrogen, sulphur oxides (released from flaring), and water in the atmosphere to form acids that are deposited either directly or with precipitation. The acids can fall near flaring activities or be carried for hundreds or thousands kilometers before being deposited. Acid deposition can lead to lakes and streams becoming acidified and it is harmful to the environment.

2. Acid Rain kills forests Energy Educators of Ontario 93 (http://www.iclei.org/EFACTS/ACIDRAIN.HTM) In Quebec, for example, sugar maple forests have been heavily damaged by acid rain. Similarly, there are forests in Poland and Czechoslovakia where 40% of the trees are dead or dying, as a result of acid rain. It has been estimated that acid rain causes $197 million in damage to commercial forests in Canada each year. Acid rain can also result in human health concerns and damage to buildings. Acid rain can aggravate respiratory ailments such as bronchitis and asthma. Humans may also be affected by drinking water which contains higher levels of toxic metals which have been dissolved from soils and pipes by the increased acidity of drinking water supplies. Construction materials such as limestone, marble and sandstone can also be damaged by acid rain, resulting in eroded buildings and monuments.

3. Terminal impact is extinction St. Petersburg Times 87 (August 12, Lexis) Yes - but human suffering, poverty, hunger and disease will only increase as the world's forests are stripped away. Trees and forests are a vital link in the chain of life. Human life cannot exist on Earth without the other kinds of animals, plants and bacteria the interdependent biological diversity that sustains life. As human activities reduce that biological diversity, we squander one of our greatest natural resources. The forests produce foods, medicines, clothing, energy and building materials. They clean our water and air. Their peaceful beauty restores our spirits. But their role in human survival has not been appreciated. Half the world's people still use wood to cook their meals. In industrial nations like the United States, the forests are blasted and bulldozed to make way for development, scraped bare by strip miners, clear cut to the ground by loggers, killed by acid rain, drowned behind dams and paved over for highways and cities.

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16 Natural Gas DA

Flaring Increases Acid Rain Flaring increases acid rain. Caliber Planning No Date Given ( Gas Flare Emergency Response Systems Corporation, “What if Flaring,” https://www.proactiver-fn.com/index.php?content=faq§ion=flaring)

Nitrogen and Sulphur Oxides may combine with water in the atmosphere to form acids. These are eventually deposited on the earth's surface. Flaring and incineration account for the majority of upstream Sulphur Oxide emissions and a significant portion of the Nitrogen Oxides. Emissions may fall rapidly or be carried for many kilometers before being deposited. The amount of acid disposition to any given area depends on the height of the flare or incinerator stack, the wind and its direction and the precipitation patterns. In most sour gas producing areas, soils are resistant to acidification because they contain a lot of fine particles (mainly, clay and silt). In Alberta, the dry climate and the amount of alkaline dust in the air also moderates the impact of SO2 emissions.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

17 Natural Gas DA

Flaring Impact- Species 1. Flaring puts sagebrush species at risk Seattle Times 4 (For good or ill, Bush clears path for energy development, October 4) The Wyoming state Department of Environmental Quality recently warned pollution from companies that "flare" rigs to burn off natural gas was getting out of hand. Federal officials overseeing Green River Valley gas drilling were so worried a mass of new wells would lead to unhealthy air they talked about how they someday may need to keep hikers or hunters off public land, according to internal Bureau of Land Management e-mails. This summer, a report by the Wyoming Game and Fish Department, the state agency that manages everything from deer to trout for hunters and anglers, was blunt about the risks: "Impending, large-scale development of these domestic energy reserves is placing sagebrush communities and wildlife at risk." 2. Sagebrush is a vital ecosystem. Bureau of Land Management 5 (Budget Justifications, http://www.blm.gov/budget/2005just/2005generalstatement.pdf) Sagebrush habitat is also home to 300 other species of plants and animals that are at risk and in need of additional conservation efforts. For this reason, the BLM is also focusing on restoration of the sagebrush ecosystem, as this is key to preventing future listing of threatened or endangered species. 3. We must reverse species extinction or put human survival at risk: California Academy of Sciences 7 (http://www.calacademy.org/research/library/biodiv.htm) Currently, more than 10,000 species become extinct each year and while precise calculation is difficult, it is certain that this rate has increased alarmingly in recent years. The central cause of species extinction is destruction of natural habitats by human beings. Human survival itself may depend upon reversing this accelerating threat to species diversity. Among the millions of undescribed species are important new sources of food, medicine and other products. When a species vanishes, we lose access to the survival strategies encoded in its genes through millions of years of evolution. We lose the opportunity to understand those strategies which may hold absolutely essential options for our own future survival as a species. And we lose not only this unique evolutionary experience, but emotionally, we lose the unique beauty, and the unique spirit, which mankind has associated with that life form.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

18 Natural Gas DA

Flaring Impact- Oceans 1. Flaring leads to massive marine ecological damage Patin 99 (Russian Ocean-environment specialist, Waste Discharges during the offshore oil and gas activity, “Environmental Impact of the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry", http://www.offshore-environment.com/discharges.html)

In spite of the fact that some countries now prohibit flaring of oil-associated gases, it remains one of the major sources of atmospheric emissions in the world. These gases are dissolved in the crude produced oil. As the pressure goes down, they bubble out in amounts up to 300 m3 for each ton of extracted oil. The associated gases give about 30% of the gross world production of gaseous hydrocarbons. However, because of the undeveloped technology and lack of required capacities and equipment on many field developments, up to 25% of all associated gases are flared. In Russia alone, the volumes of annually burned (flared) oil-associated gases reach up to 10-17 billion cubic meters [VNIIP, 1994]. Astronauts have witnessed that the view of the gas-burning torches, for example above Western Siberia or the Persian Gulf, is an impressive proof of the large scale of human economic activity and, we would add, of its bad management as well. Components of atmospheric pollution caused by oil and gas development include gaseous products of hydrocarbon evaporation and burning as well as aerosol particles of the unburned fuel. From the ecological perspective,

the most hazardous components are nitrogen and sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, and the products of the incomplete burning of hydrocarbons. These interact with atmospheric moisture, transform under the influence of solar radiation, and precipitate onto the land and sea surfaces to form fields of local and regional pollution. Clear evidence of the impact of atmospheric emissions on the marine environment from the offshore flaring was found, in particular, during well testing in the Canadian zone of the Beaufort Sea. Here, the ice surface around the test site where intensive flaring of combustible wastes occurred was polluted by atmospheric fallout of heavy oily residue. The chemical composition of the residue was similar to one of the higher-molecular-weight fractions of produced oil [GESAMP, 1993]. According to some estimates [Kingston, 1991], up to 30% of the hydrocarbons emitted into the atmosphere during well testing precipitate onto the sea surface and create distinctive and relatively unstable slicks around the offshore installations. The results of the aircraft observations in the North Sea indicate that such slicks are found with an average frequency of 1-2 cases per every hour of flight [ICES, 1995]. Technical means to rectify and prevent atmospheric pollution during offshore oil and gas production are practically identical to the analogous methods that are widely and often effectively used on land and in other industries. However, offshore atmospheric emissions thus far have not gotten the deserved attention, probably due to the remoteness of these developments from densely populated places.

2. Damaging marine systems makes extinction inevitable. NOAA 98 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Year of the Ocean Report, Prespectives on Marine Environmental Quality Today, http://www.yoto98.noaa.gov/yoto/meeting/mar_env_316.html) "It does not matter where on Earth you live, everyone is utterly dependent on the existence of that lovely, living saltwater soup. There's plenty of water in the universe without life, but nowhere is there life without water. The living ocean drives planetary chemistry, governs climate and weather, and otherwise provides the cornerstone of the lifesupport system for all creatures on our planet, from deep-sea starfish to desert sagebrush. That's why the ocean matters. If the sea is sick, we'll feel it. If it dies, we die. Our future and the state of the oceans are one."

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

19 Natural Gas DA

Ozone Impact Extension Ozone holes lead to disease and famine and represent a threat to human survival. Tarasova 5 (March 2, Natalia, Russian Mendeleev University, http://www.owl.ru/eng/womplus/1997/ecol_e.htm) Ozone hole is an atmospheric area with ozone concentration reduced by 10—15%. The hazard associated with ozone hole comes from high levels of hard ultra-violet radiation coming through and reaching the surface wherever the ozone layer has thinned. It badly affects human health and is harmful to other species as well. The first surge of diseases associated with exposure to hard ultra-violet was observed in 80s in Australia. Unlike aborigines, white Australians could not properly adapt to relatively high levels and fluctuation of radiation intensity; two centuries are not enough for a population to adjust to new environments.

Ozone holes result even in harvested crops reduction! For example, one per cent decrease of ozone concentration leads to 2% fall in output of barley, corn, cucumber, beans, etc. The reason is that, once exposed to ultraviolet rays, plants stop growing and begin synthesizing protective chemical compounds to compensate negative effects of exposure. All these plants had existed billion years before humans evolved. Actually, they had existed before the ozone stratum formation completed. That is why they successfully adjust to changing levels of ultraviolet radiation. And we lack such instruments.

Ozone holes are dangerous to the extent that in 70s military laboratories considered projects of ‘the most clean’ mass weapon which would kill by destroying the ozone layer over target areas...

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

20 Natural Gas DA

A2: Not Enough Flaring to Matter Even though the amount of gases released aren’t very large, they still devastate the environment. GAO 4 (July, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04809.pdf)

On the basis of the limited data available, the amount of gas emitted through flaring and venting worldwide is small compared with global natural gas production and represents a small portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, flaring and venting have adverse environmental impacts and result in the loss of a significant amount of energy. Annually, over 100 billion cubic meters of gas are flared or vented worldwide—enough to meet the natural gas needs of France and Germany for a year. While flaring and venting do occur in the United States, less than 1 percent of global production is flared and vented.

The amount of gas flared is enough to power two major world powers for a year- reducing flaring reduces energy demand. GAO 4 (July, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04809.pdf)

While flaring and venting represent only 3 percent of the total natural gas production, the natural gas flared and vented—about 100 billion cubic meters a year—is enough to meet the annual natural gas consumption of both France and Germany. In general, the amount of flaring and venting emissions is related to the amount of oil produced: the higher the production, the more gas flared and vented. Since 1990, the quantity of oil produced has increased, but because of various global reduction initiatives, the quantity of natural gas flared and vented has remained constant. Consequently, natural gas emissions as a percentage of oil production have decreased.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

21 Natural Gas DA

Low Prices Decrease Production Lower prices decrease production. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment 87 (U.S. Oil Production: The Effect of Low Oil Prices, http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ota/Ota_3/DATA/1987/8732.PDF)

Congress’ attention became focused on U.S. domestic oil production as a result of the largely unexpected plunge in world oil prices that began in December 1985. The price plunge began when Saudi Arabia attempted to recapture lost oil markets by increasing production and offering new and more attractive contract terms, throw- ing world oiI supply and demand out of balance. One effect of the lower prices— which dropped from $28 per barrel in 1985 to below $15 per barrel for much of 1986—was to quickly force a portion of existing U.S. production out of service and to sharply reduce drilling and other exploration and production-oriented activity, guaran- teeing that U.S. production would decline still further in the future. The Department of Energy and others have projected that the decline in production, coupled with in- creases in (pricesensitive) oil demand, will drive U.S. oil imports past the 50 percent mark by the early 1990s at the latest. Congress asked OTA to provide an independent assessment of these postulated effects.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

22 Natural Gas DA

Low Prices Hurt Businesses High natural gas prices are key to small business profitability- empirically proven. The New York Times 92 (March 2, Collapse in Prices for Natural Gas Shakes Produces, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE7DD1538F931A35750C0A964958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all)

The collapse of natural gas prices in the last three months, to the lowest winter level in more than a decade, is giving the nation's weakened oil and gas industry its worst jolt since oil prices fell by more than half in early 1986. Many giant companies have announced layoffs or reduced spending for new wells, and hundreds of smaller companies, many of them family-run, are going out of business. As oil companies increase their investments overseas, where costs are lower and potential discoveries more promising, the nation's reliance on imported energy increases.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

23 Natural Gas DA

A2: Low Prices Good for Consumers Natural gas price reductions don’t help consumers. The New York Times 92 (March 2, Collapse in Prices for Natural Gas Shakes Produces, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE7DD1538F931A35750C0A964958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all)

Many giant companies have announced layoffs or reduced spending for new wells, and hundreds of smaller companies, many of them family-run, are going out of business. As oil companies increase their investments overseas, where costs are lower and potential discoveries more promising, the nation's reliance on imported energy increases. And the lower prices have scarcely benefited residential customers. Retail prices have not fallen, and only big manufacturers and electric utilities that burn gas have enjoyed large savings, consumer groups say. A Postwar Ebb

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

24 Natural Gas DA

A2: Negative Feedbacks/Backstopping The link only goes one way- alternative energy isn’t increased by high natural gas prices. New York Times 4 (May 29, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9507E7DE1E3EF93AA15756C0A9629C8B63 Alternative energy - solar, wind, geothermal and a grab bag of other sources - is doing better than ever. But the main reason is not the increase in oil and natural gas prices. When the cost of fossil fuels rose and fell in past years, the fate of many alternative energy projects rose and fell with them. But that is no longer true. Indeed, even if prices eventually recede from their current level of about $40 a barrel to something in the $30 to $35 range, as many expect, analysts predict that most renewable energy projects will not suffer as badly as they once did. Demand for gas is so strong that higher prices don’t decrease its usage. Foster Natural Gas Report 5 (“Supply Uncertainty, Infastructure are Top Concerns in Report on North American Gas Industry,” March 3) Natural gas has become the fuel of choice for industrial users and power generators. The authors note that U.S. gas-fired generation capacity is overbuilt, and adding more coal, nuclear or other generation capacity in the short-to-medium term is "extremely difficult." Thus, gas demand for power "is expected to be very strong, even if natural gas prices are high."

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

25 Natural Gas DA

A2: Status Qou Decrease Natural Gas Natural gas is here to stay without major policy changes. The Straits Times 6 (September 1, Alternative fuels won't fully replace fossil ones, Lexis) There is consensus that fossil fuels - oil, natural gas and coal - will continue to be the dominant fuels that will meet the bulk of the world's energy needs. They are more economical than many alternative energy sources, and there are adequate reserves to meet global energy demand for at least the next 40 years (longer for coal). The US Energy Information Administration has projected that fossil fuels will still account for some 86 per cent of total world energy demand in 2030.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

26 Natural Gas DA

Aff-UQ- Demand Low Buyers are overstretched with natural gas prices now, demand and prices will slide for the coming years. Greenwire 8 (February 5, Utilities turning away from coal eye gas, risk increased prices, Lexis) But North American supplies of natural gas will be flat or declining in coming years, according to the Energy Information Administration. Because natural gas prices are already high in the United States, some experts fear a boom in natural gas demand for electricity generation will send prices even higher. Demand for natural gas is low now. Federal Reserve 7 (Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, The Beige Book, http://www.federalreserve.gov/Fomc/BeigeBook/2007/20070725/FullReport.htm) International tensions pushed up crude oil prices to the highest level in 10 months. While strong, demand was restrained by low rates of refinery utilization that caused crude inventories to swell above 5-year averages. Wholesale gasoline prices fell after the Memorial Day holiday, but picked up with rising crude prices and the July 4 holiday. Gasoline inventories are well under five-year averages. Weak demand and high inventories pushed down prices for natural gas to near $6.50 per million Btu in early July. Natural gas inventories are 18-20 percent above the 5-year average. Prices increased for some petrochemicals. Production expansion has canceled out high demand Federal Reserve 7 (Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, The Beige Book, http://www.federalreserve.gov/Fomc/BeigeBook/2007/20070725/FullReport.htm) Domestic drilling remained at high levels, but there was little growth. With 85 percent of domestic activity geared to natural gas, bearish inventories and lackluster pricing provide limited incentives to expand drilling. Many rigs have been moved from the Gulf of Mexico to earn better rates and avoid the hurricane season. The supply of rigs, drill pipe and equipment has caught up with domestic demand, slowing new orders and easing price pressure. New orders and margins are much better for international work, which has remained strong despite slowing in Canada.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

27 Natural Gas DA

Aff-Econ Turn 1. High natural gas prices destroy the economy Downes 5 (Laurence M., Federal Congressional Testimony, Febrary 16, “Energy Policy Act of 2005”) Since the beginning of 2003, the circumstances in which our industry finds itself have become plainly evident through significantly higher natural gas prices. Natural gas prices have consistently hovered in the range of $5-6 or more per MMBtu in most wholesale markets. In some areas where pipeline transportation constraints exist, prices have skyrocketed for short periods of time to $70 per MMBtu. Simply put, natural gas prices are high and volatile, and the marketplace is predicting that they will stay high. At this point there is no significant debate among analysts as to this state of affairs. Changing the current supply/demand balance requires continuing efforts aimed at energy efficiency as well as initiatives to provide more natural gas supply. As this Committee well knows, energy is the lifeblood of our economy. More than 60 million Americans rely upon natural gas to heat their homes, and high prices are a serious drain on their pocketbooks. High, volatile natural gas prices also put America at a competitive disadvantage, cause plant closings, and idle workers. Directly or indirectly, natural gas is critical to every American.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

28 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Econ Turn High natural gas prices ensure recession Industrial Energy Consumers of America 3 (December 3, 2003 41 Month Natural Gas Crisis has Cost U.S. Consumers Over $111 Billion http://www.iecaus.com/downloads/natgas/$111bilion.doc) Every U.S. economic recession has been preceded by high energy prices and this recession was no different. IECA believes the natural gas crisis started in June 2000. Government officials say the U.S. recession officially began in March 2001. High sustained natural gas prices are a hidden tax on consumers, depressing disposable personal income and savings, and ultimately consumer spending which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. Sustained high natural gas prices impede economic growth and severely impacts competitiveness of industry. Sustained high gas process will wreck the economy Brown 3 (Stephen, Director of Energy Economics and Microecnomic Policy Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "U.S. Natural Gas Markets in Turmoil Testimony Prepared for a Hearing on The Scientific Inventory of Oil and Gas Resources on Federal Lands The Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources Committee on Resources U.S. House of Representatives Thursday, June 19, http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/108cong/energy/2003jun19/brown.htm)

Sustained high natural gas prices are likely a drag on U.S. economic activity. Higher energy prices are indicative of increased scarcity of natural gas which is a basic input to production. (7) As such, rising natural gas prices can result in a classic supply-side shock that reduces potential output. Consequently, output and productivity growth are slowed. The decline in productivity growth lessens real wage growth and increases the unemployment rate at which inflation accelerates. (8) If market participants expect the near-term effects on output to be greater than the long-term effects, they will attempt to smooth their consumption by saving less or borrowing more, which boosts the interest rate. With slowing output growth and an increase in the real interest rate, the demand for real cash balances falls, and for a given rate of growth in the monetary aggregate, the rate of inflation increases. Therefore, rising natural gas prices reduce GDP growth and boost real interest rates and the measured rate of inflation. (9) High natural gas prices hurt the entire economy. Sun 04 (Sun Microsystems, High Natural Gas Prices Drive U.S. Manufacturers—and Jobs—Overseas, http://www.sun.com/br/0304_ezine/man_gas.html)

Natural gas use is widespread. This raw material accounts for 38 percent of industrial energy use, 15 percent of commercial building use, and 16 percent of electric generation use. Increases in gas prices ripple throughout the economy. For example, as average gas prices rose by 303 percent at the end of 2000, fertilizer prices increased by 144 percent. Without offsetting cost savings from other farming expenses, farmers would have curtailed production to boost corn prices to recoup expenses. Higher corn prices lead to higher prices for corn syrup and grain feed, ultimately forcing up prices for hundreds of consumer products such as soft drinks, breakfast cereals, burgers, and ethanol used in gasoline.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

29 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Econ Turn If gas prices don’t drop, the US economy is at risk. Sun 04 (Sun Microsystems, High Natural Gas Prices Drive U.S. Manufacturers—and Jobs—Overseas, http://www.sun.com/br/0304_ezine/man_gas.html)

Companies using gas for feedstock, such as nitrogen fertilizer producers, have been among the first to feel financial pain. High gas prices, which account for up to 90 percent of fertilizer costs, have forced nine nitrogen fertilizer plants to close or cease operations since January 2001. The remaining facilities have only operated at 50 percent capacity. Where U.S. firms cannot survive when costs triple.

are farmers getting their fertilizers? According to the U.S. Government Accounting Office, the 25 percent decline in U.S. fertilizer sales has been accompanied by a 43 percent increase in imports and a 7 percent decrease in agricultural consumption. Job losses follow plant closures. Russell Gold, staff reporter for The Wall Street Journal, recently wrote, "U.S. chemical makers have lost an estimated 78,000 jobs since natural gas prices began to rise in 2000." Theo H. Walthie, business group president, Hydrocarbons and Energy and EO-EG at The Dow Chemical Company, recently confirmed this pessimistic statistic when he spoke at the February 2004 CERAWEEK conference. According to Walthie, sustained high natural gas prices forced Dow to shutter U.S. plants, and focus investments overseas, accounting for some of the 3,500 jobs Dow lost globally in 2003. Walthie said

more U.S. manufacturing jobs are at risk unless U.S. natural gas prices become globally competitive in the near-term. High natural gas prices crush the manufacturing sector which is key to the economy Industrial Energy Consumers of America 3 (December 3, 2003 41 Month Natural Gas Crisis has Cost U.S. Consumers Over $111 Billion http://www.ieca-us.com/downloads/natgas/$111bilion.doc)

The impact of high energy costs on manufacturing is significant and it contributed greatly to reduce manufacturing after-tax profits during the 41 month natural gas crisis. According to Bureau of Census data, manufacturing profits fell 47.7 % during the time period of the natural gas crisis versus the previous 41 months. Manufacturing plays an important role in the economic health of our country and we must recognize that affordable energy, including natural gas, is essential. In the past, the affordability of U.S. energy was a key factor in manufacturing building their factories here. Now, the non-globally competitive price of natural gas and natural gas feedstock is forcing manufacturing companies to produce their products elsewhere. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, manufacturing accounts for 22 % of GDP growth, contributes one-third of the economy’s productivity growth, creates more business activity and jobs in other sectors than any other industry, performs 62 % of U.S. private sector R&D, pays the highest wages –18 % higher than the national average and makes two-thirds of all U.S. exports.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

30 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Flaring Link turn High oil production increases flaring GAO 4 (Opportunities to Improve Dada and Reduce Emissions, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, July 14) While flaring and venting represent only 3 percent of the total natural gas production, the natural gas flared and vented--about 100 billion cubic meters a year--is enough to meet the annual natural gas consumption of both France and Germany. In general, the amount of flaring and venting emissions is related to the amount of oil produced: the higher the production, the more gas flared and vented. Since 1990, the quantity of oil produced has increased, but because of various global reduction initiatives, the quantity of natural gas flared and vented has remained constant. Consequently, natural gas emissions as a percentage of oil production have decreased.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

31 Natural Gas DA

Aff- A2: Other Bad Chemicals in Flares The chemicals released from flares are no different than those from cars, fires, or anything other combustion process. Caliber Planning No Date Given ( Gas Flare Emergency Response Systems Corporation, “What if Flaring,” https://www.proactiver-fn.com/index.php?content=faq§ion=flaring)

It has been assumed that flares burn at 99% efficiency. However,1% of incomplete combustion can produce Carbon Monoxide (CO), unburned hydrocarbons, particulate matter (soot and ash), volatile organic compounds (Benzene, Toluene, Xylene), other organic compounds known as Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and small quantities of Sulphur compounds such as Carbon Disulphide (SO2) and Carbonyl Sulphide (COS). Benzene is known as a cancer causing compound and Carbon Disulphide is also classified as a poison affecting the central nervous system. The effects of these depend on the magnitude, duration and frequency of exposure. Many of these compounds are not unique to flaring and are common products of incomplete combustion in emissions from automobiles, forest fires, stubble burning, barbecues and cigarettes.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

32 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Empirically Denied High gas prices don’t decrease flaring- empirical evidence. GAO 4 (Opportunities to Improve Dada and Reduce Emissions, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, July 14) Since 1995, the average price of natural gas in the United States has almost tripled as demand has grown faster than supply. Natural gas prices increased from $1.93 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 1995 to $5.15 per mmBtu in 2003—an average annual rate of increase of over 13 percent (see fig. 1). 1 Despite this increase in its price, natural gas is regularly burned and released into the atmosphere during the production of oil and gas. While the exact amount of gas lost in this way is uncertain, given the vast extent of oil and gas production throughout the world, it could be significant. In addition to resulting in the loss of a potentially valuable resource, the burning and release of natural gas into the atmosphere contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, which are generally considered to be warming the earth’s atmosphere.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

33 Natural Gas DA

Aff- No Warming Impact Even completely eliminating flaring is not enough to contribute to ending global warmingthe plan overwhelms. GAO 4 (July, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04809.pdf) By itself, the reduction of natural gas flaring and venting will not solve the problem of meeting increasing natural gas demands or eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions; however, it would be a helpful step in that direction. Although the emissions from flaring and venting are small in comparison with those from other sources, such as fossil fuel combustion, reducing flaring and venting from oil and gas production would help eliminate harmful emissions and possibly preserve an energy resource that is currently being lost. Flaring doesn’t release enough greenhouse gases to matter. GAO 4 (July, Natural Gas Flaring and Venting, Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04809.pdf) Worldwide flaring and venting is estimated to contribute, respectively, about 4 percent of the total methane and about 1 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activity. Despite these small contributions, several countries have undertaken efforts to reduce flaring and venting emissions that have the potential to reduce greenhouse gases while saving an energy resource. Specifically, many countries have imposed requirements on oil and gas producers to eliminate emissions of gas within the next few years. For example, Norway no longer allows the burning of petroleum in excess of the quantity needed for normal operational safety without the approval of the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, and in 2003 Canada reported having achieved, through monitoring and regulation, a 70 percent reduction in flaring and venting emissions. In addition, corporations in several countries, in order to market their associated natural gas, either have constructed or are planning LNG plants to liquefy the gas for export or have developed on-site and local uses for the gas. For example, corporations operating in Nigeria currently have six LNG projects in development and have also begun using gas that otherwise would have been flared or vented to operate the platform equipment as well as to produce cement and fertilizer and gas that is usable as fuel for automobiles. Finally, some countries are exploring the potential of reinjecting carbon dioxide into wells instead of emitting it into the atmosphere. According to an oil company official, carbon dioxide reinjection in Algeria has prevented over one million tons of emissions— the equivalent of taking 200,000 cars off the road.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

34 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Gas Flaring Good Flaring decreases the amount of greenhouse gases emitted. Department of Energy 7 (Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Report Documents Massive Flaring of Natural Gas Worldwide, September 19, http://www.eere.energy.gov/news/news_detail.cfm/news_id=11285)

Natural gas is often released during oil production and processing, and it is flared to dispose of it. Oil producers flare the gas rather than sell it because of the lack of natural gas infrastructure or markets in the areas where oil is produced. The gas is flared for safety reasons, plus the greenhouse gas impact of the natural gas is lowered by burning it. The World Bank's Global Gas Flaring Reduction (GGFR) partnership aims to encourage a reduction in flaring by means such as re-injecting the natural gas into the oil reservoir, using it onsite for power generation, piping it to nearby markets, or liquefying it for shipment to distant markets. According to the World Bank, the natural gas flared each year generates roughly 400 million tons of carbon dioxide and would be worth about $40 billion in the United States. See the World Bank press release, the GGFR Web page, and the full NOAA report (PDF 9 MB). Download Adobe Reader.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

35 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Negative Feedbacks High gas prices will increase the incentives for alternative energy, feeding into their impacts. Matsuyama 6 (W. Brian, CEO of Cascade Natural Gas Corp, http://sec.edgaronline.com/2006/12/08/0001104659-06-080246/Section4.asp) Higher natural gas prices have eroded or, in some cases, eliminated the competitive price advantage of natural gas over alternative energy sources. If the higher gas price environment is sustained, our ability to attract new customers could be significantly affected, which could have a negative impact on our customer growth rate and results of operations. Volatility in the price of natural gas could result in large industrial customers switching to alternative energy sources and reduced revenues, earnings and cash flow. High natural gas prices will inevitably shift consumers to alternative energy- biting their impacts. Natural Gas Week 6 (June 12, Wind Could Seize Greater Market Share if High NatGas Cost Persist, Lexis)

The high price of natural gas is helping clear the way for alternative power sources to increase their market share. Investment in wind power for electricity generation has been growing steadily over the last few years. With President Bush's initiative announced in February that seeks to have 20% of the nation's electricity, up from a mere 1% today, come via wind generation, the wind power sector is starting to feel that it has a chance to eventually go head-tohead with natural gas and coal. Alternative energy increases the price for natural gas. Styles 6 (Geoffrey, Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC, an energy and environmental strategy consulting firm, EnergyOutlook, http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2006_01_01_archive.html)

The increased attractiveness of alternative energy stocks is clearly attributable to the dramatic increases in the prices of oil and natural gas, and the growing environmental challenges facing coal. To the degree these energy sources face long-term problems, alternative energy seems on secure footing. The sector includes some very promising technologies, in addition to the obvious wind and solar power segments. Gasification and sequestration, next-generation biofuels, advanced batteries, and stationary fuel cells will likely all be applied at material scales within the next decade. That means selling real products to real buyers, and generating real BTUs and kilowatts. In this light, analogies to the Tech Bubble begin to look silly.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

36 Natural Gas DA

Aff- Impact Inevitable The impact is inevitable- alternative energies are here to stay and are already trading off with natural gas- wind power proves. Natural Gas Week 5 (November 14, Tax Credits, High Fuel Prices Seen Behind Advance of Renewables, Lexis) The US wind energy industry will set an annual growth record of 35% this year, with expected installations of 2,500 MW, bringing total US wind capacity to 9,200 MW. The American Wind Energy Association said that total could displace about 500 MMcf/d, or more than 182.5 Bcf of natural gas, in 2006, based on the assumption that about 10 cubic feet of natural gas generates 1 kWh of electricity and, on average, 80% of wind generation ultimately replaces gas-fired electricity. By comparison, another yardstick estimates it takes 160 Mcf/day to get 1 MW, not one MWh, using efficient combined-cycle technology. Opponents of wind power point to lowcapacity output of wind farms, estimated at an average of 35%, but that varies depending on wind speeds, location and technology. Regardless, the alternative energy industry is expected to continue strong growth through at least 2007 when tax credits are set to expire. Southern California Edison and Stirling Energy Systems will build a major solar facility on a 4,500-acre plot 70 miles northeast of Los Angeles, with partial operations set for January 2009.