Water, Water Everywhere-pakistan

Water and Population: Water may be the resource that defines the limits of sustainable development. It has no substitute, and the balance between humanity's demands and the quantity available is already precarious. Only about 2.5 per cent of all water on the planet is fresh water—essential for most human purposes—and only about 0.5 per cent is accessible groundwater or surface water. Rainfall quantities vary greatly around the world. Portions of Northern Africa and Western Asia receive very small amounts of rain. Income is related to the availability of water between and within nations. The more developed regions have on average substantially higher rainfall than those less and least developed. Additionally, richer countries can better afford the investments needed to develop reservoirs, dams and other technologies to capture fresh water run-off and available groundwater. The World population is the total number of humans on Earth at a given time. In the year 1950 the world population was approximately 2.52 billion. In February 2008, the world's population is believed to have reached over 6.70 billion In line with population projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that were unprecedented before the 20th century, although the rate of increase has almost halved since its peak, which was reached in 1963, of 2.2 percent per year. The world's population, on its current growth trajectory, is expected to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2050. Global population has tripled over the past 70 years and water use has grown six-fold as the result of industrial development and increased use of irrigation. More recently, per capita use of water has leveled off, so total water consumption is growing at about the same pace as population. Satisfying the water needs of 77 million additional people each year has been estimated as requiring an amount roughly equal to the flow of the Rhine. But the amount of available fresh water has not changed. Worldwide, 54 per cent of the annual available fresh water is being used. If consumption per person remains steady, by 2025 we could be using 70 per cent of the total because of population growth alone. If per capita consumption everywhere reached the level of more developed countries we could be using 90 per cent of the available water by 2025. Such extrapolations assume no change in the efficiency of water use. It has been estimated, however, that relatively low-cost technologies could double agricultural productivity per unit of available water. In the past 50 years, industrialized countries have significantly increased efficiencies in industrial and agricultural water use. Many of the same technologies—for example, drip irrigation instead of flood irrigation—are increasingly available in developing countries, but cost and cultural issues (like educational outreach to facilitate behaviour change) must be addressed.

PAKISTAN is already in a state of water crisis— particularly in southern Punjab, Sindh and its capital Karachi. It is high time that the people are made fully aware of the grave implications of the water disaster, likely to occur in a decade or two. Such a disaster would threaten not only the environmental existence of the country but the very security of lives of those who live in these areas. The crying need of the hour is to galvanize people on the issue. These conclusions are based on the findings of a long- term research programme to improve the empirical basis of water availability in 118 countries of the world, by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). The first abstract was published in 1998. The forecast then made, proved to be correct and these days scarcity of water is almost a national crisis. At present the worst sufferers are southern Punjab, Sindh and its capital Karachi. The NWFP will also face serious water problem, in case, India succeeds in building a dam on Kabul River upstream. There has been almost 50 per cent reduction in agricultural production in Sindh. Its water bodies are drying up. Sea intrusion is accelerating; the sea has intruded almost 40 kilometer in Badin district. The mangroves in the whole Indus delta are fast vanishing. The water supply problem in Karachi is so acute that many areas go dry even for a week and after great hue and cry, the people get water in trickles. For Karachites, water has become a rare and expensive commodity. For instance a middle class family with a households of five persons spends every month Rs. 3,000 to 4000 on tankers, in addition Rs9000 are paid to the Water Board per annum. The IWMI researchers concluded in 1998 that Pakistan was a water scarce country in the same category as Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East and North African countries and that the scarcity of water would accentuate in the near future. They had defined ‘water scarcity’ either in term of the existing and potential supply of water or in terms of the present and future demands or needs of water or both. In pioneering studies on water scarcity, the IWMI researchers took a supply side approach by ranking countries according to percapita amount of annual water resources (AWR). The study took into account the present and future demands or need for water by simulating the demand for water in relation to the supply of water over the period 1990 to 2025. In the water balance analysis for Pakistan the estimates of water supply and demand were made. Pakistan’s population, even conservatively estimated is expected to be around 280 million in 2025 the AWR, remaining constant, water availability on a per

capita basis will be substantially reduced. The estimates were adjusted to take explicit account of return flow and water recycling whose importance is often neglected in studies of water scarcity. The study warned that the water scarcity would be a major constrain on food production, human health and environmental quality many of the countries in this category, including Pakistan, will have to divert water from irrigation to supply their domestic and industrial needs and will need to import more food. However the study concluded that around 50 per cent of the increase in demand for water by the year 2025 can be met by increasing the effectiveness of irrigation. While some of the remaining water development needs can be met by small dams and conjunctive use of aquifers. In some cases medium and large dams may also be needed. The productivity of irrigation water can be increased in four ways: (i) increasing the productivity per unit of transpiration; (ii) reducing flows of usable water to sinks and converting this into productive use; (iii) controlling salinity and pollution and (iv) reallocating water from lower valued to higher valued crop. In his whirlwind tour of the country and particularly in Sindh in connection with referendum, President Musharraf has, time and again, touched upon the issue of water crisis. In his Sukkur speech he emphasized that he would not allow Sindh to become barren and waste land. The process of desertification in Sindh would be prevented. It is in this context, an action plan is suggested on a national basis as well s for Sindh and Karachi for implementation as soon as possible. The Pakistani government is currently combating numerous political, economic, and social problems—conflicts with India over Kashmir, refugees from Afghanistan, high population growth, and severe poverty problems. While not necessarily front-page news, water scarcity is growing in Pakistan. Though heavily dependent on one river system, the Indus River, Pakistan has not always suffered from water scarcity. During the country’s infancy, water availability was quite high at 5,600 cubic meters per person. This abundance of five decades ago plummeted to just 1,000 cubic meters water availability per person today. The water crisis in Pakistan is of particular concern, according to Naser Faruqi, because water plays an integral role in the country’s economy—ninety percent of the agricultural output, representing one-quarter of the GDP, is reliant upon irrigation water while almost half of Pakistan’s energy is hydroelectric. Additionally, Pakistan’s water crisis has several serious health, social, and political implications. Health implications: The serious water shortages in Pakistan have had a great impact on the health of the general population. Today 12 percent of Pakistanis have no access to improved water sources while 39 percent are without sanitation facilities. Dr. Faruqi noted that these shortcomings force people to consume polluted drinking water, which will increase the incidence of waterborne diseases. More pressing, perhaps, is the lack of water for irrigation purposes. Grain production is expected to fall short 11 million tons by 2010 and nearly 16 million tons by 2020. If the economy continues to falter, importing food to make up for agricultural shortfalls will not be an option—famine-like conditions may very well become a harsh reality.

Social implications: As the water supply in the Indus River continues to dwindle, seawater has begun to make its way into the delta, spoiling irrigated land and aquifers. Such water degradation and shortages decimate farms and spur mass migrations to major Pakistani cities. Most problematic, according to Dr. Faruqi, has been the pressure such population movement places upon urban infrastructure. Similar to the situation in China, such migrants in the cities are often subject to discrimination and economic hardships. Political Implications: Eco-refugees, those citizens who have fled drought or infertile farmland for major urban areas, potentially contribute to an already unstable political situation in Pakistan. Massive population movements are, Dr. Faruqi noted, almost inherently unstable. In the case of Pakistan, however, the fight over ever decreasing water resources may prove even more threatening. During a severe drought in 2001, for example, rioters protesting drinking water shortages smashed windows and overturned cars in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi. In light of growing discontent over government cooperation with the United States in the “war against terror,” not to mention the questionable means employed by Perez Musharraff in his effort to secure another presidential term, conflict caused by the water crisis is a destabilizing force that the present regime cannot afford. As evidence of the government’s awareness of the far-reaching implications of the water crisis, Dr. Faruqi cited some examples of Pakistani government initiatives: • Two of the fourteen core areas of activities within the broad National Conservation Strategy (established in 1992) focus on water: irrigation efficiency and watershed protection; • In 2001, the Pakistan Environmental Protection Council approved a National Environmental Action Plan that included a major focus on clean water; • Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities were formed in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan to improve irrigation management; and, • The national-level Water and Power Development Authority has focused on building new canals and dams, extending irrigation networks, and reclaiming land damaged by water logging or salinity. Though this growing government attention on the water crisis is commendable, Naser Faruqi is disappointed by the “gap between rhetoric and reality.” The government continues to ignore the great depth of the problem, and therefore the initiatives put into action are shortsighted and often misguided. Most disturbing to Dr. Faruqi is the reluctance to employ true water conservation measures to reduce overall demand and change water consumption patterns. Instead the government simply “is just dreaming of more water to tap.” Integral for alleviating the water crisis in Pakistan is the need for education of the populous and involvement of the key stakeholders within the government, landlord, and religious communities who oppose water conservation. In short, Pakistan will need to undergo a broad paradigm shift to move onto a sustainable water use path. Drought situation in Pakistan:

Pakistan is facing acute drought conditions in certain areas of Sindh and most of Balochistan. Apart from loss of precious human lives, this has resulted in considerable loss to livestock and natural resources, squeezing livelihood opportunities and resources for sustenance. It is the need of the hour to help the affected population and vulnerable communities through both long and short-term rehabilitation plans. Data Module: Water & Population:

Years 1950 1995 2025 2050

Average Water Availability in Cubic Meter 16000 7000 5000 4000

World Population in Billions 2.50 5.75 8.00 9.50

Sufficiency, Stress & Scarcity: Years 1950 1995 2025 2050

Sufficiency in %

Stress in %

97 92 64 58

Scarcity in %

3.00 5.00 26.00 24.00

0.00 3.00 10.00 18.00

Relative Sufficiency = more than 1700 m3 per capita Freshwater Stress = 1000-1700 m3 per capita Freshwater Scarcity = less than 1000 m3 per capita The above data clearly explains that by 2050, per capita availability of fresh water will be drastically reduced by four folds from the availability in 1950. As the per capita availability is inversely proportional to the world’s total population. Per Capita Availability of Fresh Water = Total Water Available World’s total Population Further; in the second table it is clearly observed that the sufficiency percentage is inversely proportional to Stress % and Scarcity %. First of all the stress level increases and affect the sufficiency level and then this stress increases up to the extent that some of it percentage converts itself into the scarcity. As per the given table it is clearly anticipated that in comparison to the 1950 the sufficiency level will drop by 33% where as the scarcity will increase from zero to 18%. Stress level of 24% in 2050 indicates the

considerably increased consumption of contaminated and substandard water that will surely trigger water borne diseases and will cause fatalities. Answers to the Questions asked: 7. Country’s climate is of mixed type. At some places it is dry and at some cities it is aired and rainy. Lack of dams and water reservoirs and poor management of funds to invest in these causes mainly affect the water availability. 8. High Growth rate compared to other countries. Since the availability of fresh water is not growing as the population so the growth in population is adversely affecting the water availability in Pakistan. 9. Main concerns are: 10. Increase in the productivity of irrigation water. 11. Increasing the productivity per unit of transpiration; 12. Reducing flows of usable water to sinks and converting this into productive use 13. Controlling salinity and pollution and 14. Reallocating water from lower valued to higher valued crop. 15. strengthening and revitalizing of Mangla and Tarbela watershed management projects. 16. Priority public sector investments in restoring / upgrading productivity of the reverine areas affected by changes in the river hydrology due to storage and deterioration of catchment areas; and 17. Remedial measures to protect the mangroves in the Indus delta, affected by increased saline intrusion, which will destroy the province of Sindh. 18. Water Re-cycling, Improper and nonproductive allocation of irrigation water and sufficiency in drinkable water to all the households of Pakistan are the major problems country is facing these days. 19. At present the Govt. of Pakistan is not arguing with any other country about the water usage.

Answers to Handout Questions: 20. Population is predicted to increase by 280%. 21. It is predicted to decline by 75%. 22. The relationship is inverse. With the rise in population the availability of water will decline. 23. The case is such because the water sources are not increasing with the rapid increase in population. So the consumption of the available water will increase as the population increases. Thus the decline is per capita availability of water is a result if the situation and we see the inverse relation ship. 24. The world would be different in a way that there would be numerous water borne diseases, fatalities, highest prices of drinkable water, wars for water and various hopeless conditions are predicted. 25. The developing countries and countries near dessert areas would be most affected ones. Because there are already less money and natural resources of water there. 26. Yes! the drinking water is scarce in our community and we purchase the same with a good amount of money spent every month. Action Plan for Pakistan. The proposed action plans are outlined in the following paragraphs. (i) First of all, the backlog of following works must be completed and maintained; (a) strengthening and revitalizing of Mangla and Tarbela watershed management projects, including effective measures for monitoring and impact-evaluation with a view to prolonging the life of the storage reservoirs; (b) priority public sector investments in restoring / upgrading productivity of the reverine areas affected by changes in the river hydrology due to storage and deterioration of catchment areas; and (c) remedial measures to protect the mangroves in the Indus delta, affected by increased saline intrusion, which will destroy the province of Sindh. President Musharraf should note that his dream will remain unfulfilled, if the above works are not completed and results published in major dailies to inform the people. (ii) A comprehensive law should be enacted within six months to ‘Save the Indus’. Such a law should substantively cover environmental protection of its overall ecology, protection of all the rivers and their banks, their catchment areas, deltas, protection against discharge of pollutants and industrial wastes into the river, speedy enforcement procedures and severe punishment involving both imprisonment and fine. Pakistan would be in the category of a modern country if we establish exclusive environmental courts in all key districts situated on the banks of the Indus, its tributaries and major canals. (iii) There is an urgent need to establish an ‘Indus Commission’ on the pattern of the ‘Ganges Commission’ of India. This commission should be a fully autonomous body

directly under the responsibility of the President or PM The scope of this organization should be comprehensive enough to include all the water related roles of WAPDA and IRSA. This Commission should deal with all matters purtaining to Indus and its tributaries. The existing functions of WAPDA and IRSA together with functions of environmental control should be transferred to this Commission. It must be adequately staffed and funded. International cooperation should be sought. The Head Office of the Commission should be at Panchnad, the confluence of our rivers, or at Sukkur or Hyderabad. A detailed proposal can be prepared in this regard. (iv) We must develop a crash programme for drainage facilities primarily in Punjab and Sindh. (v) A set of physical measures need to be developed on a priority basis. This essential of these measures are the following: (a) A number of embankment schemes, particularly in the critical areas, must be undertaken. This will also serve as flood control device. Together with embankment, river revetments works would need to be taken at many places. (b) Desiltation schemes in areas where the river has been fordable are urgently required to be prepared and implemented. These schemes should include dredging of the rivers in critical areas. In other words, we must increase the water retention capacity of the rivers by deepening or broadening its longitudinal profile. All these will restore the year-round navigability of the Indus. (c) Prevention of soil-erosion works. (d) Establishment of a widespread network of lakes and ponds. The country has many depression areas and swamps. We can convert these into big lakes. (e) Similarly, we must dig ponds and tanks, through Social Action Programme. Can there be a better social action programme than providing safe drinking water to our teeming millions? The overwhelming majority of the people of Pakistan do not have access to potable water. Lakes, ponds and tanks can play a major role in improving our national water balance. During the Mughal days, more than seven lakh tanks and ponds existed only in Bengal. They were built by the Mughals mainly for drinking and irrigation purposes. (vi) The impact of all the preventive and curative measures in the plain and deltaic regions would be temporary unless we solve the root of the problem at the source, emanating from the catchment areas of the Indus. (vii) Intensify activities through on-farm water management projects in Punjab and Sindh. The scale and magnitude of warabandi approach should be enlarged as much as possible. As regards Sindh, it may be said that the implementation of the above action programme will certainly have positive impact on the water balance and ecology of the province. In addition, a two-pronged action programme is specifically needed for Sindh and Karachi to solve water crisis. (i) Immediate rehabilitation and enlargement of its lakes and water bodies. In addition the enlargement of the Hub Dam and its watershed is necessary to supply water to Karachi. (ii) Immediate rehabilitation and rejuvenation of the mangroves of the Indus Delta. The

mangroves of the Indus Delta have been disappearing. Mangroves play crucial role in protecting our coastal areas from the adverse effects of storms and high waves and provide the best environments for the breeding of fisheries and crustaceans like shrimps. They also provide a cheap source of fuel wood and fodder for camels and other animals. While the forests of Sindh are being destroyed mainly by human beings mostly in the name of law and order, the mangroves are being destroyed because of insufficiency of water and reckless cutting of mangroves. Today only one fourth (4 lakh acres) of mangrove exists out of a total 1.5 million acres in 1947. Before independence, there used to be about ten varieties of mangroves, now only four species remain. Before, the mangroves used to be tall now they are becoming shorter and dwarf. The main reason for this is that the deposit of silt (which provides the nutrients for the mangroves) is decreasing in the deltaic plain. Lack of safeguard measures by steel mill, refineries, power stations, oil spills at Port Qasim and discharge of polluted water and industrial effluents and sewerage into the Indus river, and fresh water lakes of Sindh and other water bodies are gradually dying. The water supply problem of Karachi is critical indeed. Ad hoc approach to solve Karachi water supply did provide part-time relief but it is not a long term solution. Such adhocism must be discarded. In the seventies Jeddah had worst water problem than Karachi. The writer in 1975-76 was sent on deputation to the Islamic Development Bank as Operational Advisor from ADB. In course of discussion he advised Saudi officials to undertake desalinization projects. They did. Today Jeddah is becoming a green city and there is no scarcity of water. It is not understood why such schemes were not undertaken by Pakistani planners. Lack of funds can not be a reason as more than Rs.100 billions have been spent on motorways. Can motorways have a higher priority over water supply? How long the Karachi people will continue to suffer in silence? The people of Karachi and Sindh will certainly consider President Musharraf a great ‘Quaid’ if he solves Karachi’s water supply problem through desalinization technology by transferring funds from motorway projects to Karachi water supply projects.