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6 Consum er M ega trends
2009 Ralf Matthaes managing director TNS Vietnam
MARCOM February 18, 2009
6 Megatrends for Vietnam... 1. Credit & Crisis
2. Consumer Concerns
3. Shift in Advertising
4. Branding & Social Recognition
5. Evolving Technology
6.Socio-Economic Shift
3 Megatrends for Vietnam... 1. Credit &Concerns Crisis 2. Consumer 3. Shift in Advertising
Credit & Crisis
GDP per capita evolution - USD In USD 1,200
1,024
1,024
1,075
2008
2009 Est.
1,000
835 800
725 552
600
402
440
2000
2002
400
289 200
0
1995
2004
2006
2007
Vietnam’s GDP has doubled in 4Economic yearsTimes – KINH TE 2007-2008 Source: Vietnam Source: GSOVN
Growth of Finance Instruments 87%
38% 29% 20% 9% 2% Bank accounts
ATM usage of bank ccount owners 2006
Credit card ownership
2008
Modern western style banking is on its way, creating faster spend Source: TNS VietCycle – 1999-2008
Personal investments 2007-2008 15
14%
14%
12
9
6% 6
5%
3
0
Invested in Stock market (Jun 07 - Jun 08) Total Household HCMC/HN
Bank Loan (Jun 07 - Jun 08) Wealthly AB household HCMC/HN
Due to downturn in the stock and real estate markets, consumer will be looking for new avenues spending, saving and investing Source: TNS VoP
Self Protection from Economic Downturn 50
Save my money
Hold off on purchase of big ticket items
19
Look for new money making opportunities
Home improvements and not buy new home
Other protection
27
24
15
25 1st stprotention
1 Priority 2nd 2ndprotection priority 4
7
12
17
Saving money, reducing spend on big ticket items and looking for new money making opportunities are the main ways consumers intend to protect themselves from the global recession Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Credit & Crisis Summary Though GDP is at an all time high, due to the declining stock and real estate markets, saving money will help banks reduce the impact of the financial crisis and speculation , but overall spend shall reduce substantially in 2009.
Consumer Concerns
Quality of product and value for money
The Chinese Milk scare could be felt for years and will make consumers more quality conscious
The forecast in the next 12 months Far better
Worse
A little better
Same
Environmental pollution
5
Value of the VND
6
Employment
6
The cost of living
6
Vietnam's Economy Roads and transportation infrastructure
Better
A little worse 22
9
13 20
14
34
Foreign investment
12
38
WTO compliance Telecommunication
18 12
12 0 14
33 16
3
46
21
50
9
21
1 0
6 2 10 18
45
3
16 26
42
60
16
22
39
34
6 2
18
34
27
16
7 1
29
33
18
9 1
33
43
Electric Power
Vietnam's International Image
37
35
9
11 1
31
15
0
43
22
13
Vietnam's intellectual property compliance
36
28
10
Don't know
27
25
Water Treatment
My personal standard of living
Far worse
51 6
51 16
16 312
Pollution, the value for the VND, employment, cost of living shall become worse in the next 12 months. Transportation infrastructure, telecoms, WTO & intellectual property compliance, VN’s international image appears to becoming much better Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Employment forecast in the next 12 months Far better
TNS Consumer Poll Jan. 09
TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08
TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06
A little better
6
Same
Far worse
28
20
12
10
A little worse
37
42
36
Don't know
9
36
35
8
16
1
11
21
Vietnamese unemployment fears have risen substantially in 4 months from 9% in September 2008 to 46% in January 2009 Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
My personal standard of living forecast Far better
TNS Consumer Poll Jan. 09
TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08
TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06
A little better
9
Same
A little worse
27
16
18
Far worse
Don't know
46
54
48
16
25
32
10
41 0
20
Vietnamese personal standard of living forecast for the next 12 months has dropped from 70% forecasting a better living standard in September 2008 to only 36% in January 2009 Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Will you reduce spending in 2009? Don’t know 2% No 46% Yes 52%
Over half of consumers shall reduce their monthly spending in 2009
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
2009 Consumer spend reduction? Less
Same
Entertainment & dining out
Don't know
82
15
31
decrease
Home appliances (Wash machine, TV Hifi, etc)
53
44
3
Household utilities
52
45
31
Personal equipment (mobile phone, laptop ,Etc)
51
43
45
Communications telephone/ fax/ email
51
47
8 1
Personal care products
43
50
70
Transportation
43
51
6
House hold care products
43
51
51
29
Food & beverages products
Same
More
23
Health care products/ services Education
65
7
7
55 49
21 43
1 2
Entertainment, Dining out, home appliances, household utilities & Personal equipment shall see decreases in spending, while education seems to be the only sector to experience increases in spending Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Consumer concerns Unemployment, personal standard of living, value for money and quality of product will be main concerns for consumers in 2009. The value of the VND and cost of living are also key concerns.
A Shift in Advertising
Advertising spend breakdown 2008 A-T-L advertising spend = US $542,693,846 Internet (est.) 0.4%
Magazines 8% Newspapers 16%
,
Radio 0.6%
Ad spend growth 2007-2008 Radio Magazines TV Newspapers Total
= 54% = 35% = 18% = 10% 18.2%
TV 75%
TV
Radio
Newspapers
Magazines
Internet (est.)
Though still very small, radio & internet hold great potential for advertisers Source: TNS Media Co.
Vietnam online Advertising Market ($M) 10%
80
9% Online Advertising
70
Internet Users
60
% of ATL Advertising
50
8% 7% 6% 5%
40
4%
30
3% 20
2% 10
1%
0
2014E
2013E
2012E
2011E
2010E
2009E
2008E
2007E
0%
Internet provides a new and cheap source of advertising Source: VinaGames Projections
Mobile music usage – By country 59 55 42 43
47
50 47
45
43
50
47
46 39
35 42
32 31
39
36 16
22
32 28
33
35
24
23
20 25
28
28
13
Using digital MP3 player on phone
Using AM/FM radio on phone
M
ex ic
o, n= 29
9
=2 45 Br az il , n
n= 50 0 Ru ss i a,
=4 85 UK ,n
n= 86 7 US A,
=2 45 ,n
Vi et na m
n= 45 7
Th ail an d,
es ia, n= 37 6
2
In do n
n= 48 In di a ,
=6 97 ,n Ch i na
Gl ob al ,n
=1 34 68
5
Nett - Using mobile music
Huge opportunities exist for Radio in Vietnam via Mobile Source: TNS 2007 GTI
A shift in media mediums summary Ad spend is slowly but surely moving more towards Internet and the radio, though TV is still King. In time of recession you need to ensure you ad spend works for you
2008 - 2009
Why we need your help? TNS Vietnam shall donate all proceeds of the sale of this book, save for production costs, to UNICEF’s Ninh Thuan Province Child Protection Program. The intent is to raise at least US $40,000 from the sale of TNS Pink Pages. Please help the Children of Ninh Thuan Province.
Thank You / Cam On
[email protected]
[email protected]
2009 Ralf Matthaes managing director TNS Vietnam
MARCOM February 18, 2009
6 Megatrends for Vietnam... 1. Credit & Crisis
2. Consumer Concerns
3. Shift in Advertising
4. Branding & Social Recognition
5. Evolving Technology
6.Socio-Economic Shift
3 Megatrends for Vietnam... 1. Credit &Concerns Crisis 2. Consumer 3. Shift in Advertising
Credit & Crisis
GDP per capita evolution - USD In USD 1,200
1,024
1,024
1,075
2008
2009 Est.
1,000
835 800
725 552
600
402
440
2000
2002
400
289 200
0
1995
2004
2006
2007
Vietnam’s GDP has doubled in 4Economic yearsTimes – KINH TE 2007-2008 Source: Vietnam Source: GSOVN
Growth of Finance Instruments 87%
38% 29% 20% 9% 2% Bank accounts
ATM usage of bank ccount owners 2006
Credit card ownership
2008
Modern western style banking is on its way, creating faster spend Source: TNS VietCycle – 1999-2008
Personal investments 2007-2008 15
14%
14%
12
9
6% 6
5%
3
0
Invested in Stock market (Jun 07 - Jun 08) Total Household HCMC/HN
Bank Loan (Jun 07 - Jun 08) Wealthly AB household HCMC/HN
Due to downturn in the stock and real estate markets, consumer will be looking for new avenues spending, saving and investing Source: TNS VoP
Self Protection from Economic Downturn 50
Save my money
Hold off on purchase of big ticket items
19
Look for new money making opportunities
Home improvements and not buy new home
Other protection
27
24
15
25 1st stprotention
1 Priority 2nd 2ndprotection priority 4
7
12
17
Saving money, reducing spend on big ticket items and looking for new money making opportunities are the main ways consumers intend to protect themselves from the global recession Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Credit & Crisis Summary Though GDP is at an all time high, due to the declining stock and real estate markets, saving money will help banks reduce the impact of the financial crisis and speculation , but overall spend shall reduce substantially in 2009.
Consumer Concerns
Quality of product and value for money
The Chinese Milk scare could be felt for years and will make consumers more quality conscious
The forecast in the next 12 months Far better
Worse
A little better
Same
Environmental pollution
5
Value of the VND
6
Employment
6
The cost of living
6
Vietnam's Economy Roads and transportation infrastructure
Better
A little worse 22
9
13 20
14
34
Foreign investment
12
38
WTO compliance Telecommunication
18 12
12 0 14
33 16
3
46
21
50
9
21
1 0
6 2 10 18
45
3
16 26
42
60
16
22
39
34
6 2
18
34
27
16
7 1
29
33
18
9 1
33
43
Electric Power
Vietnam's International Image
37
35
9
11 1
31
15
0
43
22
13
Vietnam's intellectual property compliance
36
28
10
Don't know
27
25
Water Treatment
My personal standard of living
Far worse
51 6
51 16
16 312
Pollution, the value for the VND, employment, cost of living shall become worse in the next 12 months. Transportation infrastructure, telecoms, WTO & intellectual property compliance, VN’s international image appears to becoming much better Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Employment forecast in the next 12 months Far better
TNS Consumer Poll Jan. 09
TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08
TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06
A little better
6
Same
Far worse
28
20
12
10
A little worse
37
42
36
Don't know
9
36
35
8
16
1
11
21
Vietnamese unemployment fears have risen substantially in 4 months from 9% in September 2008 to 46% in January 2009 Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
My personal standard of living forecast Far better
TNS Consumer Poll Jan. 09
TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08
TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06
A little better
9
Same
A little worse
27
16
18
Far worse
Don't know
46
54
48
16
25
32
10
41 0
20
Vietnamese personal standard of living forecast for the next 12 months has dropped from 70% forecasting a better living standard in September 2008 to only 36% in January 2009 Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Will you reduce spending in 2009? Don’t know 2% No 46% Yes 52%
Over half of consumers shall reduce their monthly spending in 2009
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
2009 Consumer spend reduction? Less
Same
Entertainment & dining out
Don't know
82
15
31
decrease
Home appliances (Wash machine, TV Hifi, etc)
53
44
3
Household utilities
52
45
31
Personal equipment (mobile phone, laptop ,Etc)
51
43
45
Communications telephone/ fax/ email
51
47
8 1
Personal care products
43
50
70
Transportation
43
51
6
House hold care products
43
51
51
29
Food & beverages products
Same
More
23
Health care products/ services Education
65
7
7
55 49
21 43
1 2
Entertainment, Dining out, home appliances, household utilities & Personal equipment shall see decreases in spending, while education seems to be the only sector to experience increases in spending Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Consumer concerns Unemployment, personal standard of living, value for money and quality of product will be main concerns for consumers in 2009. The value of the VND and cost of living are also key concerns.
A Shift in Advertising
Advertising spend breakdown 2008 A-T-L advertising spend = US $542,693,846 Internet (est.) 0.4%
Magazines 8% Newspapers 16%
,
Radio 0.6%
Ad spend growth 2007-2008 Radio Magazines TV Newspapers Total
= 54% = 35% = 18% = 10% 18.2%
TV 75%
TV
Radio
Newspapers
Magazines
Internet (est.)
Though still very small, radio & internet hold great potential for advertisers Source: TNS Media Co.
Vietnam online Advertising Market ($M) 10%
80
9% Online Advertising
70
Internet Users
60
% of ATL Advertising
50
8% 7% 6% 5%
40
4%
30
3% 20
2% 10
1%
0
2014E
2013E
2012E
2011E
2010E
2009E
2008E
2007E
0%
Internet provides a new and cheap source of advertising Source: VinaGames Projections
Mobile music usage – By country 59 55 42 43
47
50 47
45
43
50
47
46 39
35 42
32 31
39
36 16
22
32 28
33
35
24
23
20 25
28
28
13
Using digital MP3 player on phone
Using AM/FM radio on phone
M
ex ic
o, n= 29
9
=2 45 Br az il , n
n= 50 0 Ru ss i a,
=4 85 UK ,n
n= 86 7 US A,
=2 45 ,n
Vi et na m
n= 45 7
Th ail an d,
es ia, n= 37 6
2
In do n
n= 48 In di a ,
=6 97 ,n Ch i na
Gl ob al ,n
=1 34 68
5
Nett - Using mobile music
Huge opportunities exist for Radio in Vietnam via Mobile Source: TNS 2007 GTI
A shift in media mediums summary Ad spend is slowly but surely moving more towards Internet and the radio, though TV is still King. In time of recession you need to ensure you ad spend works for you
2008 - 2009
Why we need your help? TNS Vietnam shall donate all proceeds of the sale of this book, save for production costs, to UNICEF’s Ninh Thuan Province Child Protection Program. The intent is to raise at least US $40,000 from the sale of TNS Pink Pages. Please help the Children of Ninh Thuan Province.
Thank You / Cam On
[email protected]
[email protected]
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