Verdict 2004
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HINDU
THE
HOW INDIA VOTED V E R D I C T
Thursday, May 20, 2004
2 0 0 4
A special eight-page supplement on the what, how and why of Verdict 2004 at both the national and the State levels. Based on an exclusive nationwide post-poll survey conducted by a team of political scientists from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and its Lokniti network. Seats
Goa
2 Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies
Turnout Votes (%)
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
28 24 4
18 18 0
36.7 34.8 1.9
Total BJP JD(U)
2 2
1 1
46.8 46.8
BJP & Allies
Total Congress NCP
2 1 1
1 1 0
45.8 29.8 16.0
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress
28 28
8 8
Others
Total JD(S)
28 28
2 2
Seats
Haryana
Turnout
Orissa
28 66.8%
Total BJP
Delhi
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
10
1
17.2
Cong. Congress & Allies
10
9
42.1
Total INLD HVP
19 10 9
0 0 0
28.6 22.4 6.2
66% Votes (%)
Total BJP BJD
21 9 12
18 7 11
49.3 19.3 30
36.8 36.8
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
21 21
2 2
40.4 40.4
20.4 20.4
Others
Total JMM
1 1
1 1
1.5 1.5
BJP & Allies
Uttaranchal
Seats won
Votes (%)
BJP
29
25
48.1
Cong. Congress & Allies
29
4
34.1
Seats
Turnout
5
48.1%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & BJP Allies Cong. Congress & Allies Others
SP
Votes (%)
5
3
41.0
5
1
38.3
5
1
7.9
West Bengal
Seats
Turnout
42
78%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Total BJP TRMC
42 13 29
1 0 1
29.1 8.1 21.0
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
37 37
6 6
14.6 14.6
Total CPI (M) CPI RSP FBL
42 32 3 4 3
35 26 3 3 3
50.8 38.6 4 4.5 3.7
29 48.1%
Seats Parties contested
BJP & Allies
Turnout
21
Turnout
Seats
Madhya Pradesh
Seats
Seats Seats Parties contested won
10 65.7% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Others
Turnout
Seats
Karnataka
58.7%
BJP & Allies
Left
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Seats
Turnout
1
63.7%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Seats
Punjab
Maharashtra
BJP+ Left Others
Turnout
48
54.4
Seats Parties contested
Bombay
Cong+
Seats
219 Seats
Total BJP Shiv Sena
48 26 22
25 13 12
42.7 22.6 20.1
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress NCP RPI (A) PRBP RPI
47 26 18 1 1 1
23 13 9 1 0 0
44.4 23.8 18.3 1 0.7 0.4
Total JD (S) BBM BSP
61 1 17 43
0 0 0 0
4.2 0.6 1.3 2.9
Others 10
70 Seats
21
Not held
Seats
Himachal Pradesh Pondicherry Parties
Turnout
13 3 10
11 3 8
44.8 10.5 34.3
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
11 11
2 2
34.2 34.2
Left
Total CPI CPI (M)
2 1 1
0 0 0
4.3 2.5 1.8
Others
Total SAD (M) BSP
19 6 13
0 0 0
11.5 3.8 7.7
Seats Seats contested won
BJP
Cong. Congress & Allies
4
1 3
Rajasthan
Votes (%)
BJP
25
21
49.0
Cong. Congress & Allies
25
4
41.4
BJP & Allies
51.9
Seats
Bihar Seats
Andhra Pradesh Parties
BJP & Allies
Total BJP TDP Total
Cong. Congress & Allies TRS INC (Ind)
Left Others
42 9 33 41* 34 6 1
Turnout
5 0 5 34 29 5 0
Votes (%)
41.5 8.4 33.1 48.8 41.5 6.5 0.8
Total CPI CPI (M)
2 1 1
2 1 1
2.3 1.3 1
Total MIM
2 2
1 1
1.2 1.2
Arunachal Pradesh
BJP & Allies
Seats
2
Votes (%)
Total BJP
53.8 53.8
Total
Congress
Seats Seats Parties contested won
2 2
2 2
2 1
0 0
29.9 10
1
0
19.9
Seats
Assam
Turnout
14 69.1% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
14 12 1 1
3 2 0 1
30.7 22.9 1.2 6.6 35.1 35.1 20.9 19.9 1.0
BJP & Allies
Total BJP JD (U) BJP (Ind)
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress
14 14
9 9
Others
Total AGP CPIML (L)
15 12 3
2 2 0
37 14 23
11 5 6
37.1 14.2 22.9
Total Congress RJD LJNSP NCP
36 4 23 8 1
26 3 19 4 0
44.3 4.8 29.8 8.7 1
Total CPI CPI (M)
6 5 1
0 0 0
1.9 1.1 0.8
BJP & Allies
Cong. & Allies
Left
Graphics by Varghese Kallada
Seats
Chhattisgarh
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies
BJP Congress
11 11
Delhi
10 1
BJP
Cong. Congress & Allies
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies Others
7 7
Gujarat
23.0 23.0
Total Congress PDP INC (Ind)
6 2 3 1
4 2 1 1
39.9 25.0 11.9 3.0
Total NC
6 6
2 2
22.0 22.0
Seats
Seats Parties contested
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total
47.8
RJD
13 6 5 2
12* 6 4 2
37.7 17.9 16.3 3.5
40.2
Total CPI CPI (M) MCC
3 1 1 1
1 1 0 0
5.8 3.8 0.4 1.6
Seats
Turnout
Votes (%)
Left
Kerala
54.8
Turnout
Parties
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total BJP IFDP
20 19 1
1 0 1
12.1 10.4 1.7
Total Cong. Congress MUL & Allies KC (M)
20 17 2 1
1 0 1 0
38.4 32.1 4.9 1.4
Total CPI (M) CPI KEC Ind. (LF)
20 13 4 1 1
18 12 3 1 1
46.0 31.5 7.9 2.3 2.1
JD (S)
1
1
2.2
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
Total BJP
26 26
14 14
47.4 47.4
Total Cong. Congress & Allies NCP
26 25 1
12 12 0
45.1 43.9 1.2
20 75.6% Seats contested
40.7
Left
Others
Meghalaya
Seats
Turnout
2
52.6%
Seats Parties contested
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total BJP TRMC
2 1 1
1 0 1
36.9 8.6 28.3
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
2 2
1 1
45.5 45.5
BJP & Allies
Turnout
14 55.6%
Cong. Congress JMM & Allies
Votes (%)
26 45.2% Seats Seats Parties contested won
0 0
SSP
1
69.8
1
0
27.4
1
0
1.5
Seats
Mizoram Seats Parties contested
BJP & Allies
Seats
Turnout
1
63.4%
Seats won
Votes (%)
MNF
1
1
52.5
Cong. INC (Ind) & Allies
1
0
45.7
Seats
Turnout
2
56.2%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Total BJP
2 2
0 0**
16.0 16.0
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress NCP
2 1 1
1 1
37.0 37.0
**
**
1 1 1
**
Others
Total MPP FPM
0
** ** 21.2
Seats
Turnout
1
91.7%
BJP & Allies
Nagaland Seats Parties contested
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies
NPF Congress
1 1
**
Seats won
1 0
39 6 33
0 0 0
34.9 5.1 29.8
Total PMK MDMK
35 10 16 5 4
35 10 16 5 4
51.5 14.4 24.6 6.7 5.8
Total CPI CPI (M)
4 2 2
4 2 2
5.9 3 2.9
Seats
Turnout
Left
Tripura
Votes (%)
Total BJP TRMC
2 1 1
0 0 0
12.9 7.8 5.1
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
2 2
0 0
14.3 14.3
Total CPI (M)
2 2
2 2
68.8 68.8
Seats
Turnout
80
48.2
Left
Uttar Padesh
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Total BJP JD (U)
80 77 3
11 10 1
23 22.2 0.8
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress LJNSP INC (Ind)
79 73 3 3
9 9 0 0
12.6 12.0 0.3 0.3
Others
649 Total SP+RLD 68+10 80 BSP 2 SJP (R) 7 NLP 481 Ind.
BJP & Allies
73.1
0
35.9
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
1
55.8
Chandigarh
Seats
Turnout
1
50.9%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
1
0
35.2
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
1
52.1
Seats
Turnout
1
69%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
1
0
15.6
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
0
25.7
Others
1
1
40.9
BNP
Daman & Diu
Seats
Turnout
1
70.2%
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
1
0
48.4
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
1
49.5
Lakshadweep
Seats
Turnout
1
81.5%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
JD (U)
1
1
49.0
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
0
48.8
Seats
Turnout
1
76%
BJP & Allies
Pondicherry
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
BJP & Allies
BJP
1
0
35.6
Cong. & Allies
PMK
1
1
49.9
Note: Wherever partners of an alliance have contested against each other in a constituency, the votes of the larger party have been included in the alliance vote share.
2 66.9% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
25.8
Votes (%)
Total BJP AIADMK
Cong. & Congress DMK Allies
BJP & Allies
Manipur
Turnout
39 60.8%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
1
Tamil Nadu
Votes (%)
33.0 33.0
47.1
Seats
6 6
Seats won
1 1
Turnout
6
Seats contested
Jharkhand
BJP & Allies
35.2%
14 14
7 1
Total BJP
Turnout
6
Total BJP
Turnout
Seats Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Parties
11 52.1%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
Total BJP JD(U)
Turnout
56.3%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Cong. Congress & Allies Arunachal
40 58.7%
42 69.9%
Seats Seats contested won
Turnout
Seats
Turnout
1 77.9%
BJP & SDF Allies Cong. Congress & Allies
1
Seats Seats Parties contested won Seats
Others
Jammu & Kashmir
25 49.9%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
44.2
Turnout
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Nicobar 4
Seats
Sikkim
59.7% Andaman &
BJP & Allies
Lakshadweep
4
Votes (%)
BJP & Allies
189 Seats 61 Seats
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total BJP SAD
BJP & Allies
BJP
Turnout
13 61.6% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
60 60.9 35+3 26.7+4.5 19 24.7 1 0.5 1 0.6 1 3.8
Inside 2
Overview by Yogendra Yadav; Methodology of the Survey
3
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Delhi & Kerala
4 5 6 7 8
Karnataka, Orissa, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh & Goa Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Gujarat & Uttaranchal Bihar, Assam / Northeast, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand & Haryana Voting behaviour & Social background; Aggregate data analysis Voter turnout; Guest columns
THE
HOW INDIA VOTED V E R D I C T
Thursday, May 20, 2004
2 0 0 4
A special eight-page supplement on the what, how and why of Verdict 2004 at both the national and the State levels. Based on an exclusive nationwide post-poll survey conducted by a team of political scientists from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and its Lokniti network. Seats
Goa
2 Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies
Turnout Votes (%)
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
28 24 4
18 18 0
36.7 34.8 1.9
Total BJP JD(U)
2 2
1 1
46.8 46.8
BJP & Allies
Total Congress NCP
2 1 1
1 1 0
45.8 29.8 16.0
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress
28 28
8 8
Others
Total JD(S)
28 28
2 2
Seats
Haryana
Turnout
Orissa
28 66.8%
Total BJP
Delhi
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
10
1
17.2
Cong. Congress & Allies
10
9
42.1
Total INLD HVP
19 10 9
0 0 0
28.6 22.4 6.2
66% Votes (%)
Total BJP BJD
21 9 12
18 7 11
49.3 19.3 30
36.8 36.8
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
21 21
2 2
40.4 40.4
20.4 20.4
Others
Total JMM
1 1
1 1
1.5 1.5
BJP & Allies
Uttaranchal
Seats won
Votes (%)
BJP
29
25
48.1
Cong. Congress & Allies
29
4
34.1
Seats
Turnout
5
48.1%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & BJP Allies Cong. Congress & Allies Others
SP
Votes (%)
5
3
41.0
5
1
38.3
5
1
7.9
West Bengal
Seats
Turnout
42
78%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Total BJP TRMC
42 13 29
1 0 1
29.1 8.1 21.0
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
37 37
6 6
14.6 14.6
Total CPI (M) CPI RSP FBL
42 32 3 4 3
35 26 3 3 3
50.8 38.6 4 4.5 3.7
29 48.1%
Seats Parties contested
BJP & Allies
Turnout
21
Turnout
Seats
Madhya Pradesh
Seats
Seats Seats Parties contested won
10 65.7% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Others
Turnout
Seats
Karnataka
58.7%
BJP & Allies
Left
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Seats
Turnout
1
63.7%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Seats
Punjab
Maharashtra
BJP+ Left Others
Turnout
48
54.4
Seats Parties contested
Bombay
Cong+
Seats
219 Seats
Total BJP Shiv Sena
48 26 22
25 13 12
42.7 22.6 20.1
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress NCP RPI (A) PRBP RPI
47 26 18 1 1 1
23 13 9 1 0 0
44.4 23.8 18.3 1 0.7 0.4
Total JD (S) BBM BSP
61 1 17 43
0 0 0 0
4.2 0.6 1.3 2.9
Others 10
70 Seats
21
Not held
Seats
Himachal Pradesh Pondicherry Parties
Turnout
13 3 10
11 3 8
44.8 10.5 34.3
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
11 11
2 2
34.2 34.2
Left
Total CPI CPI (M)
2 1 1
0 0 0
4.3 2.5 1.8
Others
Total SAD (M) BSP
19 6 13
0 0 0
11.5 3.8 7.7
Seats Seats contested won
BJP
Cong. Congress & Allies
4
1 3
Rajasthan
Votes (%)
BJP
25
21
49.0
Cong. Congress & Allies
25
4
41.4
BJP & Allies
51.9
Seats
Bihar Seats
Andhra Pradesh Parties
BJP & Allies
Total BJP TDP Total
Cong. Congress & Allies TRS INC (Ind)
Left Others
42 9 33 41* 34 6 1
Turnout
5 0 5 34 29 5 0
Votes (%)
41.5 8.4 33.1 48.8 41.5 6.5 0.8
Total CPI CPI (M)
2 1 1
2 1 1
2.3 1.3 1
Total MIM
2 2
1 1
1.2 1.2
Arunachal Pradesh
BJP & Allies
Seats
2
Votes (%)
Total BJP
53.8 53.8
Total
Congress
Seats Seats Parties contested won
2 2
2 2
2 1
0 0
29.9 10
1
0
19.9
Seats
Assam
Turnout
14 69.1% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
14 12 1 1
3 2 0 1
30.7 22.9 1.2 6.6 35.1 35.1 20.9 19.9 1.0
BJP & Allies
Total BJP JD (U) BJP (Ind)
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress
14 14
9 9
Others
Total AGP CPIML (L)
15 12 3
2 2 0
37 14 23
11 5 6
37.1 14.2 22.9
Total Congress RJD LJNSP NCP
36 4 23 8 1
26 3 19 4 0
44.3 4.8 29.8 8.7 1
Total CPI CPI (M)
6 5 1
0 0 0
1.9 1.1 0.8
BJP & Allies
Cong. & Allies
Left
Graphics by Varghese Kallada
Seats
Chhattisgarh
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies
BJP Congress
11 11
Delhi
10 1
BJP
Cong. Congress & Allies
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies Others
7 7
Gujarat
23.0 23.0
Total Congress PDP INC (Ind)
6 2 3 1
4 2 1 1
39.9 25.0 11.9 3.0
Total NC
6 6
2 2
22.0 22.0
Seats
Seats Parties contested
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total
47.8
RJD
13 6 5 2
12* 6 4 2
37.7 17.9 16.3 3.5
40.2
Total CPI CPI (M) MCC
3 1 1 1
1 1 0 0
5.8 3.8 0.4 1.6
Seats
Turnout
Votes (%)
Left
Kerala
54.8
Turnout
Parties
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total BJP IFDP
20 19 1
1 0 1
12.1 10.4 1.7
Total Cong. Congress MUL & Allies KC (M)
20 17 2 1
1 0 1 0
38.4 32.1 4.9 1.4
Total CPI (M) CPI KEC Ind. (LF)
20 13 4 1 1
18 12 3 1 1
46.0 31.5 7.9 2.3 2.1
JD (S)
1
1
2.2
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
Total BJP
26 26
14 14
47.4 47.4
Total Cong. Congress & Allies NCP
26 25 1
12 12 0
45.1 43.9 1.2
20 75.6% Seats contested
40.7
Left
Others
Meghalaya
Seats
Turnout
2
52.6%
Seats Parties contested
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total BJP TRMC
2 1 1
1 0 1
36.9 8.6 28.3
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
2 2
1 1
45.5 45.5
BJP & Allies
Turnout
14 55.6%
Cong. Congress JMM & Allies
Votes (%)
26 45.2% Seats Seats Parties contested won
0 0
SSP
1
69.8
1
0
27.4
1
0
1.5
Seats
Mizoram Seats Parties contested
BJP & Allies
Seats
Turnout
1
63.4%
Seats won
Votes (%)
MNF
1
1
52.5
Cong. INC (Ind) & Allies
1
0
45.7
Seats
Turnout
2
56.2%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Total BJP
2 2
0 0**
16.0 16.0
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress NCP
2 1 1
1 1
37.0 37.0
**
**
1 1 1
**
Others
Total MPP FPM
0
** ** 21.2
Seats
Turnout
1
91.7%
BJP & Allies
Nagaland Seats Parties contested
BJP & Allies Cong. & Allies
NPF Congress
1 1
**
Seats won
1 0
39 6 33
0 0 0
34.9 5.1 29.8
Total PMK MDMK
35 10 16 5 4
35 10 16 5 4
51.5 14.4 24.6 6.7 5.8
Total CPI CPI (M)
4 2 2
4 2 2
5.9 3 2.9
Seats
Turnout
Left
Tripura
Votes (%)
Total BJP TRMC
2 1 1
0 0 0
12.9 7.8 5.1
Total Cong. & Allies Congress
2 2
0 0
14.3 14.3
Total CPI (M)
2 2
2 2
68.8 68.8
Seats
Turnout
80
48.2
Left
Uttar Padesh
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Total BJP JD (U)
80 77 3
11 10 1
23 22.2 0.8
Cong. & Allies
Total Congress LJNSP INC (Ind)
79 73 3 3
9 9 0 0
12.6 12.0 0.3 0.3
Others
649 Total SP+RLD 68+10 80 BSP 2 SJP (R) 7 NLP 481 Ind.
BJP & Allies
73.1
0
35.9
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
1
55.8
Chandigarh
Seats
Turnout
1
50.9%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
1
0
35.2
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
1
52.1
Seats
Turnout
1
69%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
1
0
15.6
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
0
25.7
Others
1
1
40.9
BNP
Daman & Diu
Seats
Turnout
1
70.2%
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
BJP
1
0
48.4
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
1
49.5
Lakshadweep
Seats
Turnout
1
81.5%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
JD (U)
1
1
49.0
Cong. Congress & Allies
1
0
48.8
Seats
Turnout
1
76%
BJP & Allies
Pondicherry
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
BJP & Allies
BJP
1
0
35.6
Cong. & Allies
PMK
1
1
49.9
Note: Wherever partners of an alliance have contested against each other in a constituency, the votes of the larger party have been included in the alliance vote share.
2 66.9% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
25.8
Votes (%)
Total BJP AIADMK
Cong. & Congress DMK Allies
BJP & Allies
Manipur
Turnout
39 60.8%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
1
Tamil Nadu
Votes (%)
33.0 33.0
47.1
Seats
6 6
Seats won
1 1
Turnout
6
Seats contested
Jharkhand
BJP & Allies
35.2%
14 14
7 1
Total BJP
Turnout
6
Total BJP
Turnout
Seats Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Parties
11 52.1%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
BJP & Allies
Votes (%)
Total BJP JD(U)
Turnout
56.3%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Cong. Congress & Allies Arunachal
40 58.7%
42 69.9%
Seats Seats contested won
Turnout
Seats
Turnout
1 77.9%
BJP & SDF Allies Cong. Congress & Allies
1
Seats Seats Parties contested won Seats
Others
Jammu & Kashmir
25 49.9%
Seats Seats Parties contested won
44.2
Turnout
Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
Nicobar 4
Seats
Sikkim
59.7% Andaman &
BJP & Allies
Lakshadweep
4
Votes (%)
BJP & Allies
189 Seats 61 Seats
Seats won
Votes (%)
Total BJP SAD
BJP & Allies
BJP
Turnout
13 61.6% Seats Seats Parties contested won
Votes (%)
60 60.9 35+3 26.7+4.5 19 24.7 1 0.5 1 0.6 1 3.8
Inside 2
Overview by Yogendra Yadav; Methodology of the Survey
3
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Delhi & Kerala
4 5 6 7 8
Karnataka, Orissa, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh & Goa Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Gujarat & Uttaranchal Bihar, Assam / Northeast, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand & Haryana Voting behaviour & Social background; Aggregate data analysis Voter turnout; Guest columns
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