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US Treasury Yields Comex Gold and Nymex Crude Oil The US Dollar vs the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and British Pound The Major Equity Averages The ValuEngine Stock of the Day
[email protected]
Market Overview October 27, 2009 Daily 10/26/2009 10/23/2009 Daily Chg 12/31/2008 YTD Change Supports
10-Year
Gold
Crude Oil
Euro
3.554 3.473 0.081 2.227 1.327 3.677 M 4.000 S 4.176 S
1039.2 1055.3 -16.1 870.1 169.1 991.7 S 978.8 M 891.0 A
78.66 79.78 -1.12 40.42 38.24 72.71 W 68.81 A 66.51 A
1.4864 1.4997 -0.0133 1.4384 0.048 1.4787 Q 1.4036 A
Five-Week Five- Month Int Sent LT Sent
The Dow
Nasdaq
9,868 9,972 -104 8,776 1092 9,750 A 9,306 M 6,546 Q
2142 2154 -12 1577 565 1938 M 1635 Q 1506 A
1043.3 D
Pivots Resistances
Japanese Yen 92.17 92.07 0.1 87.45 4.72 88.49 W 82.72 Q
3.466 D 3.332 W 2.753 Q 2.640 A 3.425 3.318 7.1 / 6.8 4.7 / 4.4
2144 D
1091.9 W 1094.4 Q 1101.9 S
82.98 M 83.16 Q 83.46 D
1017.8 943.8 8.1 / 8.3 7.4 / 7.7
73.24 67.23 7.3 / 7.6 2.7 / 3.1
1.4956 D 1.5022 M 1.5129 W 1.5394 S 1.4669 1.4068 8.4 / 8.6 4.2 / 5.1
93.23 D 99.80 M 105.58 A 105.85 S 91.53 94.80 1.9 / 2.2 3.5 / 3.3
9,969 D 9,973 W 10,012 A
2183 M 2188 W 2227 S
9,699 9,089 9.0 / 9.0 3.2 / 3.9
2093 1895 8.9 / 8.8 3.8 / 4.7
Supports – Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots – Levels that could be tested as magnets. Resistances – Levels that are likely to restrain strength (D-Daily, W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual) Five-Week – The five-week modified moving average. Five-Month – The five-month modified moving average. Int Sent – 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 and 10.0. LT Sent – 12x3x3 monthly slow stochastic reading. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative) Weekly Chart Profiles – Above the Five-Week with rising Int Sent is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Int Sent is negative. Monthly Chart Profiles – Above the Five-Month with rising LT Sent is positive. Below the FiveMonth with declining LT Sent is negative.
ValuEngine Sector Overview Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12MReturn
P/E Ratio
Basic Industries
-1.38%
6.22%
68.68%
17.33% overvalued
75.07%
26.97
Capital Goods
-1.34%
5.88%
39.73%
16.76% overvalued
32.71%
20.94
Consumer Durables
-1.12%
5.94%
65.43%
3.52% overvalued
42.88%
28.38
Consumer Non-Durables
-1.00%
4.92%
50.03%
12.93% overvalued
40.65%
22.28
Consumer Services
-1.57%
4.84%
62.50%
7.68% overvalued
51.34%
22.64
Energy
-1.92%
8.65%
45.16%
20.86% overvalued
33.03%
19.82
Finance
-0.83%
1.97%
25.37%
3.97% overvalued
15.92%
19.16
Health Care
-1.35%
2.05%
58.55%
8.26% undervalued
41.92%
19.77
Public Utilities
-1.22%
3.74%
21.11%
2.39% undervalued
35.90%
15.81
Technology
-1.00%
3.37%
67.09%
2.21% undervalued
48.55%
26.64
Transportation
-2.01%
2.76%
23.71%
10.00% overvalued
19.82%
16.94
ValuEngine Universe Valuation Stocks Undervalued
52.2%
Stocks Overvalued
47.8%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
27.07%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
26.95%
The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 4500 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded on US markets. “Normal” ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically run between 3565%. Of course, readings in excess of this range are no guarantee that a correction is imminent and extreme conditions may persist for a very long time.
10-Year Note – Monthly and semiannual supports are 3.677, 4.000 and 4.176 with daily and weekly resistances at 3.466 and 3.332.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – Semiannual and monthly supports are $991.7 and $978.8 with a daily pivot at $1043.3, and weekly, quarterly and semiannual resistances at $1091.9, $1094.4 and $1,101.9.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil – Weekly and annual supports are $72.71, $68.81 and $66.51 with monthly, quarterly and daily resistances at $82.98, $83.16 and $83.46.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – Quarterly and annual supports are 1.4787 and 1.4036 with daily, monthly, weekly and semiannual resistances at 1.4956, 1.5022, 1.5129, and 1.5394.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Dollar versus Japanese Yen – Weekly and quarterly supports are 88.49 and 82.72 with daily and monthly resistance at 93.23 and 99.80.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The British Pound – Weekly support is 1.6182 with daily and monthly resistances at 1.6822 and 1.6833.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Major Equity Averages 26-Oct
YTD
2008
52 Wk
Cycle
Date of
% High
% Off
% Off
Price
Gains
Closes
Lows
Highs
Highs
To Lows
Lows
Highs
The Dow
9,868.00
12.4%
8,776.00
6,469.95
14,198.10
Oct-07
-54.4%
52.5%
30.5%
S&P 500
1,067.00
18.1%
903.30
666.92
1,576.06
Oct-07
-57.7%
60.0%
32.3%
Nasdaq
2,142.00
35.8%
1,577.00
1,265.52
2,861.51
Oct-07
-55.8%
69.3%
25.1%
Utilities
372.71
0.5%
370.76
288.66
555.71
Jan-08
-48.1%
29.1%
32.9%
3,773.00
6.7%
3,537.00
2,134.21
5,536.57
May-08
-61.5%
76.8%
31.9%
Russell 2000
593.68
18.9%
499.45
342.59
862.00
Jul-07
-60.3%
73.3%
31.1%
Semis (SOX)
317.44
49.6%
212.17
167.55
549.39
Jul-07
-69.5%
89.5%
42.2%
Market
Transports
Dow – Annual, monthly and quarterly supports are 9,750, 9,306 and 6,546 with daily, weekly and annual resistances at 9,969, 9,973 and 10,012. S&P 500 – Monthly support is 1033.3 with daily and weekly resistances at 1077.1 and 1085.6. Annual supports are 967.1 and 910.8. Quarterly support is 688.9 with semiannual resistance at 1237.6. NASDAQ – Monthly support is 1938 with a daily pivot at 2144, and weekly and monthly resistances at 2188 and 2183. Annual and quarterly supports are 1506 and 1408 with semiannual resistances at 2227 and 2296. Dow Utilities – Monthly and quarterly supports are 337.79 and 336.94 with a weekly pivot at 374.16 and daily resistance at 382.60. Dow Transports – Monthly and quarterly supports are 3615 and 3158 with daily, weekly, and annual resistances at 3816, 3994, 4037 and 4199. Russell 2000 – Monthly support is 589.03 with a daily pivot at 594.28, and weekly annual and semiannual resistances at 618.79, 670.80 and 695.55. The SOX – Daily support is 311.69 with weekly, semiannual and monthly resistances at 325.97, 337.39 and 343.37.
Bear Tracks Dow: The Dow is well below its 200-week simple moving average at 11,212 with overbought momentum. The weekly chart stays POSITIVE but OVERBOUGHT on a close this week above its 5-week modified moving average at 9,730. Note the ascending wedge on the weekly chart, as that pattern typically is broken to the downside. The Dow is well below its 120-month simple moving average at 10,478, which is a multi-year Bear Market. The monthly chart is POSITIVE with the 38.2% Retracement line as a pivot at 9,389.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
ValuEngine Stock of the Day Ryland Group (RYL)
Ryland Group (RYL) – is rated a SELL according to ValuEngine with fair value at $20.43, which makes the stock slightly undervalued. The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company also provides mortgage-finance and related services. Analysis – The daily chart for Ryland shows declining MOJO, with the 21-day simple moving average at $21.08 and the 200-day as support at $18.89. My weekly value level is $19.55 with a monthly pivot at $22.26 and quarterly risky level at $23.46. Ryland is a short position in the ValuTrader model portfolio from $24.09 on September 17th.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters Ticker
Company Name
RYL
RYLAND GROUP
Mkt Price 20.08
Fair Value 20.43
Forecast 1Mon Retn(%) -1.69
Forecast 1Yr Retn(%) -16.33
Last 12-Mon Retn (%) 33.35
5-Yr Avg Retn (%) -14.09
P/E Ratio n/a
[email protected]
Market Overview October 27, 2009 Daily 10/26/2009 10/23/2009 Daily Chg 12/31/2008 YTD Change Supports
10-Year
Gold
Crude Oil
Euro
3.554 3.473 0.081 2.227 1.327 3.677 M 4.000 S 4.176 S
1039.2 1055.3 -16.1 870.1 169.1 991.7 S 978.8 M 891.0 A
78.66 79.78 -1.12 40.42 38.24 72.71 W 68.81 A 66.51 A
1.4864 1.4997 -0.0133 1.4384 0.048 1.4787 Q 1.4036 A
Five-Week Five- Month Int Sent LT Sent
The Dow
Nasdaq
9,868 9,972 -104 8,776 1092 9,750 A 9,306 M 6,546 Q
2142 2154 -12 1577 565 1938 M 1635 Q 1506 A
1043.3 D
Pivots Resistances
Japanese Yen 92.17 92.07 0.1 87.45 4.72 88.49 W 82.72 Q
3.466 D 3.332 W 2.753 Q 2.640 A 3.425 3.318 7.1 / 6.8 4.7 / 4.4
2144 D
1091.9 W 1094.4 Q 1101.9 S
82.98 M 83.16 Q 83.46 D
1017.8 943.8 8.1 / 8.3 7.4 / 7.7
73.24 67.23 7.3 / 7.6 2.7 / 3.1
1.4956 D 1.5022 M 1.5129 W 1.5394 S 1.4669 1.4068 8.4 / 8.6 4.2 / 5.1
93.23 D 99.80 M 105.58 A 105.85 S 91.53 94.80 1.9 / 2.2 3.5 / 3.3
9,969 D 9,973 W 10,012 A
2183 M 2188 W 2227 S
9,699 9,089 9.0 / 9.0 3.2 / 3.9
2093 1895 8.9 / 8.8 3.8 / 4.7
Supports – Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots – Levels that could be tested as magnets. Resistances – Levels that are likely to restrain strength (D-Daily, W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual) Five-Week – The five-week modified moving average. Five-Month – The five-month modified moving average. Int Sent – 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 and 10.0. LT Sent – 12x3x3 monthly slow stochastic reading. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative) Weekly Chart Profiles – Above the Five-Week with rising Int Sent is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Int Sent is negative. Monthly Chart Profiles – Above the Five-Month with rising LT Sent is positive. Below the FiveMonth with declining LT Sent is negative.
ValuEngine Sector Overview Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12MReturn
P/E Ratio
Basic Industries
-1.38%
6.22%
68.68%
17.33% overvalued
75.07%
26.97
Capital Goods
-1.34%
5.88%
39.73%
16.76% overvalued
32.71%
20.94
Consumer Durables
-1.12%
5.94%
65.43%
3.52% overvalued
42.88%
28.38
Consumer Non-Durables
-1.00%
4.92%
50.03%
12.93% overvalued
40.65%
22.28
Consumer Services
-1.57%
4.84%
62.50%
7.68% overvalued
51.34%
22.64
Energy
-1.92%
8.65%
45.16%
20.86% overvalued
33.03%
19.82
Finance
-0.83%
1.97%
25.37%
3.97% overvalued
15.92%
19.16
Health Care
-1.35%
2.05%
58.55%
8.26% undervalued
41.92%
19.77
Public Utilities
-1.22%
3.74%
21.11%
2.39% undervalued
35.90%
15.81
Technology
-1.00%
3.37%
67.09%
2.21% undervalued
48.55%
26.64
Transportation
-2.01%
2.76%
23.71%
10.00% overvalued
19.82%
16.94
ValuEngine Universe Valuation Stocks Undervalued
52.2%
Stocks Overvalued
47.8%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
27.07%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
26.95%
The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 4500 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded on US markets. “Normal” ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically run between 3565%. Of course, readings in excess of this range are no guarantee that a correction is imminent and extreme conditions may persist for a very long time.
10-Year Note – Monthly and semiannual supports are 3.677, 4.000 and 4.176 with daily and weekly resistances at 3.466 and 3.332.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – Semiannual and monthly supports are $991.7 and $978.8 with a daily pivot at $1043.3, and weekly, quarterly and semiannual resistances at $1091.9, $1094.4 and $1,101.9.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil – Weekly and annual supports are $72.71, $68.81 and $66.51 with monthly, quarterly and daily resistances at $82.98, $83.16 and $83.46.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – Quarterly and annual supports are 1.4787 and 1.4036 with daily, monthly, weekly and semiannual resistances at 1.4956, 1.5022, 1.5129, and 1.5394.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Dollar versus Japanese Yen – Weekly and quarterly supports are 88.49 and 82.72 with daily and monthly resistance at 93.23 and 99.80.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The British Pound – Weekly support is 1.6182 with daily and monthly resistances at 1.6822 and 1.6833.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Major Equity Averages 26-Oct
YTD
2008
52 Wk
Cycle
Date of
% High
% Off
% Off
Price
Gains
Closes
Lows
Highs
Highs
To Lows
Lows
Highs
The Dow
9,868.00
12.4%
8,776.00
6,469.95
14,198.10
Oct-07
-54.4%
52.5%
30.5%
S&P 500
1,067.00
18.1%
903.30
666.92
1,576.06
Oct-07
-57.7%
60.0%
32.3%
Nasdaq
2,142.00
35.8%
1,577.00
1,265.52
2,861.51
Oct-07
-55.8%
69.3%
25.1%
Utilities
372.71
0.5%
370.76
288.66
555.71
Jan-08
-48.1%
29.1%
32.9%
3,773.00
6.7%
3,537.00
2,134.21
5,536.57
May-08
-61.5%
76.8%
31.9%
Russell 2000
593.68
18.9%
499.45
342.59
862.00
Jul-07
-60.3%
73.3%
31.1%
Semis (SOX)
317.44
49.6%
212.17
167.55
549.39
Jul-07
-69.5%
89.5%
42.2%
Market
Transports
Dow – Annual, monthly and quarterly supports are 9,750, 9,306 and 6,546 with daily, weekly and annual resistances at 9,969, 9,973 and 10,012. S&P 500 – Monthly support is 1033.3 with daily and weekly resistances at 1077.1 and 1085.6. Annual supports are 967.1 and 910.8. Quarterly support is 688.9 with semiannual resistance at 1237.6. NASDAQ – Monthly support is 1938 with a daily pivot at 2144, and weekly and monthly resistances at 2188 and 2183. Annual and quarterly supports are 1506 and 1408 with semiannual resistances at 2227 and 2296. Dow Utilities – Monthly and quarterly supports are 337.79 and 336.94 with a weekly pivot at 374.16 and daily resistance at 382.60. Dow Transports – Monthly and quarterly supports are 3615 and 3158 with daily, weekly, and annual resistances at 3816, 3994, 4037 and 4199. Russell 2000 – Monthly support is 589.03 with a daily pivot at 594.28, and weekly annual and semiannual resistances at 618.79, 670.80 and 695.55. The SOX – Daily support is 311.69 with weekly, semiannual and monthly resistances at 325.97, 337.39 and 343.37.
Bear Tracks Dow: The Dow is well below its 200-week simple moving average at 11,212 with overbought momentum. The weekly chart stays POSITIVE but OVERBOUGHT on a close this week above its 5-week modified moving average at 9,730. Note the ascending wedge on the weekly chart, as that pattern typically is broken to the downside. The Dow is well below its 120-month simple moving average at 10,478, which is a multi-year Bear Market. The monthly chart is POSITIVE with the 38.2% Retracement line as a pivot at 9,389.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
ValuEngine Stock of the Day Ryland Group (RYL)
Ryland Group (RYL) – is rated a SELL according to ValuEngine with fair value at $20.43, which makes the stock slightly undervalued. The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company also provides mortgage-finance and related services. Analysis – The daily chart for Ryland shows declining MOJO, with the 21-day simple moving average at $21.08 and the 200-day as support at $18.89. My weekly value level is $19.55 with a monthly pivot at $22.26 and quarterly risky level at $23.46. Ryland is a short position in the ValuTrader model portfolio from $24.09 on September 17th.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters Ticker
Company Name
RYL
RYLAND GROUP
Mkt Price 20.08
Fair Value 20.43
Forecast 1Mon Retn(%) -1.69
Forecast 1Yr Retn(%) -16.33
Last 12-Mon Retn (%) 33.35
5-Yr Avg Retn (%) -14.09
P/E Ratio n/a
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