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US Treasury Yields Comex Gold and Nymex Crude Oil The US Dollar vs the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and British Pound The Major Equity Averages The ValuEngine Stock of the Day

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Market Overview October 27, 2009 Daily 10/26/2009 10/23/2009 Daily Chg 12/31/2008 YTD Change Supports

10-Year

Gold

Crude Oil

Euro

3.554 3.473 0.081 2.227 1.327 3.677 M 4.000 S 4.176 S

1039.2 1055.3 -16.1 870.1 169.1 991.7 S 978.8 M 891.0 A

78.66 79.78 -1.12 40.42 38.24 72.71 W 68.81 A 66.51 A

1.4864 1.4997 -0.0133 1.4384 0.048 1.4787 Q 1.4036 A

Five-Week Five- Month Int Sent LT Sent

The Dow

Nasdaq

9,868 9,972 -104 8,776 1092 9,750 A 9,306 M 6,546 Q

2142 2154 -12 1577 565 1938 M 1635 Q 1506 A

1043.3 D

Pivots Resistances

Japanese Yen 92.17 92.07 0.1 87.45 4.72 88.49 W 82.72 Q

3.466 D 3.332 W 2.753 Q 2.640 A 3.425 3.318 7.1 / 6.8 4.7 / 4.4

2144 D

1091.9 W 1094.4 Q 1101.9 S

82.98 M 83.16 Q 83.46 D

1017.8 943.8 8.1 / 8.3 7.4 / 7.7

73.24 67.23 7.3 / 7.6 2.7 / 3.1

1.4956 D 1.5022 M 1.5129 W 1.5394 S 1.4669 1.4068 8.4 / 8.6 4.2 / 5.1

93.23 D 99.80 M 105.58 A 105.85 S 91.53 94.80 1.9 / 2.2 3.5 / 3.3

9,969 D 9,973 W 10,012 A

2183 M 2188 W 2227 S

9,699 9,089 9.0 / 9.0 3.2 / 3.9

2093 1895 8.9 / 8.8 3.8 / 4.7

Supports – Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots – Levels that could be tested as magnets. Resistances – Levels that are likely to restrain strength (D-Daily, W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual) Five-Week – The five-week modified moving average. Five-Month – The five-month modified moving average. Int Sent – 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 and 10.0. LT Sent – 12x3x3 monthly slow stochastic reading. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative) Weekly Chart Profiles – Above the Five-Week with rising Int Sent is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Int Sent is negative. Monthly Chart Profiles – Above the Five-Month with rising LT Sent is positive. Below the FiveMonth with declining LT Sent is negative.

ValuEngine Sector Overview Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12MReturn

P/E Ratio

Basic Industries

-1.38%

6.22%

68.68%

17.33% overvalued

75.07%

26.97

Capital Goods

-1.34%

5.88%

39.73%

16.76% overvalued

32.71%

20.94

Consumer Durables

-1.12%

5.94%

65.43%

3.52% overvalued

42.88%

28.38

Consumer Non-Durables

-1.00%

4.92%

50.03%

12.93% overvalued

40.65%

22.28

Consumer Services

-1.57%

4.84%

62.50%

7.68% overvalued

51.34%

22.64

Energy

-1.92%

8.65%

45.16%

20.86% overvalued

33.03%

19.82

Finance

-0.83%

1.97%

25.37%

3.97% overvalued

15.92%

19.16

Health Care

-1.35%

2.05%

58.55%

8.26% undervalued

41.92%

19.77

Public Utilities

-1.22%

3.74%

21.11%

2.39% undervalued

35.90%

15.81

Technology

-1.00%

3.37%

67.09%

2.21% undervalued

48.55%

26.64

Transportation

-2.01%

2.76%

23.71%

10.00% overvalued

19.82%

16.94

ValuEngine Universe Valuation Stocks Undervalued

52.2%

Stocks Overvalued

47.8%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

27.07%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

26.95%

The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 4500 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded on US markets. “Normal” ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically run between 3565%. Of course, readings in excess of this range are no guarantee that a correction is imminent and extreme conditions may persist for a very long time.

10-Year Note – Monthly and semiannual supports are 3.677, 4.000 and 4.176 with daily and weekly resistances at 3.466 and 3.332.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – Semiannual and monthly supports are $991.7 and $978.8 with a daily pivot at $1043.3, and weekly, quarterly and semiannual resistances at $1091.9, $1094.4 and $1,101.9.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – Weekly and annual supports are $72.71, $68.81 and $66.51 with monthly, quarterly and daily resistances at $82.98, $83.16 and $83.46.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – Quarterly and annual supports are 1.4787 and 1.4036 with daily, monthly, weekly and semiannual resistances at 1.4956, 1.5022, 1.5129, and 1.5394.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Dollar versus Japanese Yen – Weekly and quarterly supports are 88.49 and 82.72 with daily and monthly resistance at 93.23 and 99.80.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The British Pound – Weekly support is 1.6182 with daily and monthly resistances at 1.6822 and 1.6833.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Major Equity Averages 26-Oct

YTD

2008

52 Wk

Cycle

Date of

% High

% Off

% Off

Price

Gains

Closes

Lows

Highs

Highs

To Lows

Lows

Highs

The Dow

9,868.00

12.4%

8,776.00

6,469.95

14,198.10

Oct-07

-54.4%

52.5%

30.5%

S&P 500

1,067.00

18.1%

903.30

666.92

1,576.06

Oct-07

-57.7%

60.0%

32.3%

Nasdaq

2,142.00

35.8%

1,577.00

1,265.52

2,861.51

Oct-07

-55.8%

69.3%

25.1%

Utilities

372.71

0.5%

370.76

288.66

555.71

Jan-08

-48.1%

29.1%

32.9%

3,773.00

6.7%

3,537.00

2,134.21

5,536.57

May-08

-61.5%

76.8%

31.9%

Russell 2000

593.68

18.9%

499.45

342.59

862.00

Jul-07

-60.3%

73.3%

31.1%

Semis (SOX)

317.44

49.6%

212.17

167.55

549.39

Jul-07

-69.5%

89.5%

42.2%

Market

Transports

Dow – Annual, monthly and quarterly supports are 9,750, 9,306 and 6,546 with daily, weekly and annual resistances at 9,969, 9,973 and 10,012. S&P 500 – Monthly support is 1033.3 with daily and weekly resistances at 1077.1 and 1085.6. Annual supports are 967.1 and 910.8. Quarterly support is 688.9 with semiannual resistance at 1237.6. NASDAQ – Monthly support is 1938 with a daily pivot at 2144, and weekly and monthly resistances at 2188 and 2183. Annual and quarterly supports are 1506 and 1408 with semiannual resistances at 2227 and 2296. Dow Utilities – Monthly and quarterly supports are 337.79 and 336.94 with a weekly pivot at 374.16 and daily resistance at 382.60. Dow Transports – Monthly and quarterly supports are 3615 and 3158 with daily, weekly, and annual resistances at 3816, 3994, 4037 and 4199. Russell 2000 – Monthly support is 589.03 with a daily pivot at 594.28, and weekly annual and semiannual resistances at 618.79, 670.80 and 695.55. The SOX – Daily support is 311.69 with weekly, semiannual and monthly resistances at 325.97, 337.39 and 343.37.

Bear Tracks Dow: The Dow is well below its 200-week simple moving average at 11,212 with overbought momentum. The weekly chart stays POSITIVE but OVERBOUGHT on a close this week above its 5-week modified moving average at 9,730. Note the ascending wedge on the weekly chart, as that pattern typically is broken to the downside. The Dow is well below its 120-month simple moving average at 10,478, which is a multi-year Bear Market. The monthly chart is POSITIVE with the 38.2% Retracement line as a pivot at 9,389.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

ValuEngine Stock of the Day Ryland Group (RYL)

Ryland Group (RYL) – is rated a SELL according to ValuEngine with fair value at $20.43, which makes the stock slightly undervalued. The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company also provides mortgage-finance and related services. Analysis – The daily chart for Ryland shows declining MOJO, with the 21-day simple moving average at $21.08 and the 200-day as support at $18.89. My weekly value level is $19.55 with a monthly pivot at $22.26 and quarterly risky level at $23.46. Ryland is a short position in the ValuTrader model portfolio from $24.09 on September 17th.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters Ticker

Company Name

RYL

RYLAND GROUP

Mkt Price 20.08

Fair Value 20.43

Forecast 1Mon Retn(%) -1.69

Forecast 1Yr Retn(%) -16.33

Last 12-Mon Retn (%) 33.35

5-Yr Avg Retn (%) -14.09

P/E Ratio n/a

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