Tugas Besar
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Bulan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
112106 8 2 6 8 4 1 7 3 4 2 7 2 3 3 4 9 5 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 9 8 3 5 2 8 6 6 7 7 5 8 2 4 3 10 3 10 5 2 5 2 5
261181 27 41 32 36 38 32 36 31 40 35 37 29 34 34 39 35 35 36 47 25 31 44 34 38 36 34 30 45 41 28 32 35 33 37 28 27 32 33 25 34 34 36 30 35 28 29 35
531550 34 26 25 26 35 38 19 27 15 26 29 34 30 33 28 26 28 34 26 28 25 39 27 18 36 35 25 24 29 28 24 25 26 35 25 24 35 32 31 24 33 22 25 33 25 25 23
510039 12 15 5 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 10 9 8 5 6 10 7 10 8 8 5 7 6 6 5 8 5 13 7 8 7 6 8 5 11 12 8 9 10 11 8 7 5 7 12 15 5
48
Kelompok Suku Cadang Alat Bantu Umum Material Konstruksi Bahan Baku Total
6
33
Stok Terakhir Nilai (juta) Posisi 18.71 181.23 606 14.06 284 8.71 998 104.91 11.91 4.152.526 32.5 4.461.429
28
6
Plot Data 892140 5 4 3 8 8 4 7 10 4 3 5 5 8 9 10 12 11 4 4 2 5 5 2 6 8 10 5 6 9 5 4 7 11 5 4 9 5 11 4 9 7 5 8 6 5 3 4
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
0 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row
7
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Item Besi Siku 50 x 50 x 50 x 600 mm Kawat Las AWS E6013 dia. 3.2 mm Vee Belt SPA 12.5 x 1175 La Bearing 6210 Z NTN Melting Crushible Porcelein, Lap : 30 cc
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
Kode 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Column C
Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Column D
Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Column E
Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Frekuensi Transaksi / Tahun 45 52 48 39 36
Harga Perolehan (ribu) 52 7 20 58 26
Stok (unit) 66 235 15 16 8
15 12.5 10 Column C
7.5
Column F
5 2.5 0 Row 4 Row 9 Row 14 Row 20 Row 26 Row 32 Row 38 Row 44 Row 50 12 10 8 Column D
6 4 2 0 Row 4 Row 9 Row 14 Row 19Row 24 Row 29 Row 34Row 39 Row 44 Row 49
Column E
Column G
Column F
Row 50
Row 49
Column G
SES Forecast Result for 112106 5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Forecast byForecast SES Error 8 2 6 8 4 1 7 3 4 2 7 2 3 3 4 9 5 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 9 8 3 5 2 8 6 6 7 7 5 8 2 4 3 10 3 10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
CFE
-6 -2 0 -4 -7 -1 -5 -4 -6 -1 -6 -5 -5 -4 1 -3 -6 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 1 0 -5 -3 -6 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -6 -4 -5 2 -5 2
-6 -8 -8 -12 -19 -20 -25 -29 -35 -36 -42 -47 -52 -56 -55 -58 -64 -67 -72 -75 -77 -79 -83 -82 -82 -87 -90 -96 -96 -98 -100 -101 -102 -105 -105 -111 -115 -120 -118 -123 -121
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
5 2 5 2 5 6
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 -144 3.32 14.94 118.43 -43.38 Alpha=0 F(0)=8
-3 -6 -3 -6 -3 -2
-124 -130 -133 -139 -142 -144
DES Forecast Result for 112106 MAD
MSE
6 4 2.67 3 3.8 3.33 3.57 3.63 3.89 3.6 3.82 3.92 4 4 3.8 3.75 3.88 3.83 3.89 3.85 3.76 3.68 3.7 3.58 3.44 3.5 3.48 3.57 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.28 3.21 3.21 3.11 3.19 3.22 3.26 3.23 3.28 3.24
MAPE (%)
36 20 13.33 14 21 17.67 18.71 18.38 20.33 18.4 20 20.42 20.77 20.43 19.13 18.5 19.53 18.94 19.26 18.75 18.05 17.41 17.35 16.67 16 16.35 16.07 16.79 16.21 15.8 15.42 14.97 14.55 14.38 13.97 14.58 14.62 14.89 14.62 14.88 14.61
300 166.67 111.11 108.33 226.67 191.27 187.76 176.79 190.48 172.86 184.42 182.94 181.69 175.85 164.87 158.31 166.65 160.72 161.04 155.98 150.14 144.83 142.88 137.39 131.9 133.24 130.52 136.58 131.87 128.58 125.51 122.03 118.77 117.04 113.7 118.87 118.36 119.63 117.08 118.32 115.92
Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -14.47 -15.47 -16.48 -17.48 -18.49 -19.48 -20.47 -21.46 -22.46 -22.88 -23.84 -24.86 -25.85 -26.88 -27.84 -28.82 -29.81 -30.78 -31.75 -32.75 -33.72 -34.75 -35.76 -36.77 -36.52 -37.56 -37.3
R-square
5/8/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
3.24 3.3 3.3 3.36 3.35 3.32
14.48 14.98 14.84 15.31 15.17 14.94
114.59 118.9 117.56 121.62 120.28 118.43
-38.29 -39.37 -40.36 -41.42 -42.42 -43.38
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
recast Result for 112106 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 8 2 6 8 4 1 7 3 4 2 7 2 3 3 4 9 5 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 9 8 3 5 2 8 6 6 7 7 5 8 2 4 3 10 3 10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
CFE
-6 -2 0 -4 -7 -1 -5 -4 -6 -1 -6 -5 -5 -4 1 -3 -6 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 1 0 -5 -3 -6 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -6 -4 -5 2 -5 2
MAD
-6 -8 -8 -12 -19 -20 -25 -29 -35 -36 -42 -47 -52 -56 -55 -58 -64 -67 -72 -75 -77 -79 -83 -82 -82 -87 -90 -96 -96 -98 -100 -101 -102 -105 -105 -111 -115 -120 -118 -123 -121
MSE
6 4 2.67 3 3.8 3.33 3.57 3.63 3.89 3.6 3.82 3.92 4 4 3.8 3.75 3.88 3.83 3.89 3.85 3.76 3.68 3.7 3.58 3.44 3.5 3.48 3.57 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.28 3.21 3.21 3.11 3.19 3.22 3.26 3.23 3.28 3.24
MAPE (%)
36 20 13.33 14 21 17.67 18.71 18.38 20.33 18.4 20 20.42 20.77 20.43 19.13 18.5 19.53 18.94 19.26 18.75 18.05 17.41 17.35 16.67 16 16.35 16.07 16.79 16.21 15.8 15.42 14.97 14.55 14.38 13.97 14.58 14.62 14.89 14.62 14.88 14.61
300 166.67 111.11 108.33 226.67 191.27 187.76 176.79 190.48 172.86 184.42 182.94 181.69 175.85 164.87 158.31 166.65 160.72 161.04 155.98 150.14 144.83 142.88 137.39 131.9 133.24 130.52 136.58 131.87 128.58 125.51 122.03 118.77 117.04 113.7 118.87 118.36 119.63 117.08 118.32 115.92
5 2 5 2 5 6
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 -144 3.32 14.94 118.43 -43.38 Alpha=0 F(0)=8 F'(0)=8
-3 -6 -3 -6 -3 -2
-124 -130 -133 -139 -142 -144
3.24 3.3 3.3 3.36 3.35 3.32
14.48 14.98 14.84 15.31 15.17 14.94
114.59 118.9 117.56 121.62 120.28 118.43
LR (Terbaik) Forecast Result for 112106 Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -14.47 -15.47 -16.48 -17.48 -18.49 -19.48 -20.47 -21.46 -22.46 -22.88 -23.84 -24.86 -25.85 -26.88 -27.84 -28.82 -29.81 -30.78 -31.75 -32.75 -33.72 -34.75 -35.76 -36.77 -36.52 -37.56 -37.3
R-square
5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Forecast by Forecast LR Error 8 4.59 3.41 2 4.61 -2.61 6 4.62 1.38 8 4.64 3.36 4 4.66 -0.66 1 4.68 -3.68 7 4.69 2.31 3 4.71 -1.71 4 4.73 -0.73 2 4.75 -2.75 7 4.76 2.24 2 4.78 -2.78 3 4.8 -1.8 3 4.82 -1.82 4 4.83 -0.83 9 4.85 4.15 5 4.87 0.13 2 4.89 -2.89 5 4.9 9.61E-02 3 4.92 -1.92 5 4.94 6.12E-02 6 4.96 1.04 6 4.97 1.03 4 4.99 -0.99 9 5.01 3.99 8 5.03 2.97 3 5.04 -2.04 5 5.06 -0.06 2 5.08 -3.08 8 5.1 2.9 6 5.11 0.89 6 5.13 0.87 7 5.15 1.85 7 5.17 1.83 5 5.18 -0.18 8 5.2 2.8 2 5.22 -3.22 4 5.24 -1.24 3 5.25 -2.25 10 5.27 4.73 3 5.29 -2.29 10 5.31 4.69
-38.29 -39.37 -40.36 -41.42 -42.42 -43.38
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
5 2 5 2 5 6
5.32 5.34 5.36 5.38 5.39 5.41 5.428 5.446 5.463 5.481 5.498 5.516 5.533 5.551 5.568 5.585 5.603 5.620 9.06E-06 1.97 5.57 57.62 4.60E-06 1.04E-02 Y-intercept=4.5718 Slope=0.0175
-0.32 -3.34 -0.36 -3.38 -0.39 0.59 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 72
CFE 3.41 0.8 2.18 5.54 4.88 1.2 3.51 1.8 1.07 -1.68 0.56 -2.22 -4.02 -5.84 -6.67 -2.53 -2.39 -5.28 -5.19 -7.11 -7.05 -6 -4.98 -5.97 -1.98 1 -1.05 -1.11 -4.19 -1.28 -0.39 0.47 2.33 4.16 3.98 6.78 3.56 2.32 6.73E-02 4.8 2.51 7.2
MAD
MSE 3.41 3.01 2.46 2.69 2.28 2.51 2.48 2.39 2.2 2.26 2.26 2.3 2.26 2.23 2.14 2.26 2.14 2.18 2.07 2.06 1.97 1.92 1.89 1.85 1.93 1.97 1.98 1.91 1.95 1.98 1.94 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.86 1.88 1.92 1.9 1.91 1.98 1.99 2.05
MAPE (%) 11.63 9.21 6.77 7.9 6.41 7.59 7.27 6.72 6.04 6.19 6.08 6.22 5.99 5.8 5.46 6.19 5.83 5.97 5.65 5.56 5.29 5.1 4.92 4.76 5.21 5.35 5.3 5.11 5.26 5.37 5.22 5.08 5.03 4.98 4.84 4.92 5.07 4.98 4.98 5.42 5.41 5.81
42.63 86.49 65.3 59.47 50.87 103.67 93.57 89 81.14 86.76 81.77 86.55 84.5 82.79 78.66 76.63 72.28 76.28 72.36 71.95 68.58 66.25 64.12 62.48 61.75 60.81 61.08 58.94 62.22 61.35 59.85 58.43 57.46 56.54 55.03 54.48 57.35 56.66 57.13 56.88 57.36 57.11
Tracking Signal 1 0.27 0.88 2.06 2.14 0.48 1.41 0.75 0.48 -0.74 0.25 -0.97 -1.78 -2.62 -3.12 -1.12 -1.12 -2.42 -2.51 -3.45 -3.58 -3.12 -2.64 -3.23 -1.02 0.51 -0.53 -0.58 -2.15 -0.65 -0.2 0.25 1.22 2.18 2.14 3.6 1.85 1.22 3.52E-02 2.42 1.26 3.51
R-square
1.80E-02 8.49E-02 0.32 0.18 5.49E-03 3.62E-02 7.87E-03 2.71E-03 5.08E-03 9.33E-04 6.25E-03 1.73E-02 3.26E-02 3.97E-02 5.13E-03 4.71E-03 1.63E-02 1.52E-02 2.55E-02 0.02 1.74E-02 1.24E-02 1.64E-02 4.22E-03 3.43E-03 0 4.16E-03 8.04E-03 4.55E-03 4.64E-03 5.08E-03 6.34E-03 8.67E-03 8.86E-03 1.35E-02 8.49E-03 7.97E-03 7.67E-03 9.93E-03 8.44E-03 1.25E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi P No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot
6.88 3.54 3.18 -0.2 -0.59 9.06E-06
2.01 2.04 2.01 2.04 2 1.97
5.67 5.8 5.67 5.8 5.68 5.57
55.93 58.46 57.32 59.74 58.64 57.62
3.42 1.73 1.59 -9.63E-02 -0.29 4.60E-06
1.25E-02 9.43E-03 9.78E-03 9.21E-03 9.85E-03 1.04E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan Xt Ft 8 4.589 2 4.607 6 4.624 8 4.642 4 4.659 1 4.677 7 4.694 3 4.712 4 4.729 2 4.747 7 4.764 2 4.782 Total MR MR
UCL LCL Daerah A + Daerah A Daerah B + Daerah B -
Ft-Xt -3.411 2.607 -1.376 -3.358 0.659 3.677 -2.306 1.712 0.729 2.747 -2.236 2.782 3.820 10.161 -10.161 6.774 -6.774 3.387 -3.387
MR 6.017 3.983 1.983 4.017 3.017 5.983 4.017 0.983 2.017 4.983 5.017 42.017
UCL 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161
LCL -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16
A+ 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77
A-6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77
B+ 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39
B-3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39
12.500 10.000 7.500 5.000 2.500 0.000 -2.500 -5.000 -7.500 -10.000 -12.500 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
ow Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Column AM Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Column AT
SES Forecast Result for 261181 5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Forecast by SES 27 41 32 36 38 32 36 31 40 35 37 29 34 34 39 35 35 36 47 25 31 44 34 38 36 34 30 45 41 28 32 35 33 37 38 27 32 33 25 34 34 36 30 35
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Forecast Error
CFE
14 5 9 11 5 9 4 13 8 10 2 7 7 12 8 8 9 20 -2 4 17 7 11 9 7 3 18 14 1 5 8 6 10 11 0 5 6 -2 7 7 9 3 8
MAD
14 19 28 39 44 53 57 70 78 88 90 97 104 116 124 132 141 161 159 163 180 187 198 207 214 217 235 249 250 255 263 269 279 290 290 295 301 299 306 313 322 325 333
14 9.5 9.33 9.75 8.8 8.83 8.14 8.75 8.67 8.8 8.18 8.08 8 8.29 8.27 8.25 8.29 8.94 8.58 8.35 8.76 8.68 8.78 8.79 8.72 8.5 8.85 9.04 8.76 8.63 8.61 8.53 8.58 8.65 8.4 8.31 8.24 8.08 8.05 8.03 8.05 7.93 7.93
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
28 29 35 33
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 350 7.62 77.45 20.83 45.95 Alpha=0 F(0)=27
1 2 8 6
334 336 344 350
7.77 7.64 7.65 7.62
DES Forecast Result for 261181 MSE
MAPE (%)
196 110.5 100.67 105.75 89.6 88.17 77.86 89.25 86.44 87.8 80.18 77.58 75.38 80.29 79.2 78.25 78.41 96.28 91.42 87.65 97.24 95.05 96.17 95.54 93.68 90.42 99.07 102.54 99.03 96.57 95.52 93.66 93.85 94.65 91.94 90.08 88.62 86.39 85.44 84.53 84.44 82.64 82.21
34.15 24.89 24.92 25.93 23.87 24.06 22.46 23.72 23.62 23.96 22.41 22.26 22.13 22.75 22.76 22.76 22.89 23.99 23.14 22.63 23.39 23.27 23.51 23.58 23.46 22.94 23.57 23.95 23.25 22.99 22.99 22.84 22.96 23.14 22.48 22.29 22.18 21.8 21.77 21.74 21.82 21.54 21.57
Tracking Signal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18.53 19.52 20.54 21.54 22.54 23.55 24.54 25.53 26.55 27.56 28.54 29.54 30.54 31.53 32.53 33.54 34.52 35.52 36.51 37.01 38.01 39 40.01 40.99 41.99
R-square
5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
27 41 32 36 38 32 36 31 40 35 37 29 34 34 39 35 35 36 47 25 31 44 34 38 36 34 30 45 41 28 32 35 33 37 38 27 32 33 25 34 34 36 30 35
80.36 78.67 78.35 77.45
21.16 20.85 20.89 20.83
42.97 43.95 44.95 45.95
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
28 29 35 33
ult for 261181 Forecast byForecast DES Error 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
CFE
14 5 9 11 5 9 4 13 8 10 2 7 7 12 8 8 9 20 -2 4 17 7 11 9 7 3 18 14 1 5 8 6 10 11 0 5 6 -2 7 7 9 3 8
MAD
14 19 28 39 44 53 57 70 78 88 90 97 104 116 124 132 141 161 159 163 180 187 198 207 214 217 235 249 250 255 263 269 279 290 290 295 301 299 306 313 322 325 333
MSE
14 9.5 9.33 9.75 8.8 8.83 8.14 8.75 8.67 8.8 8.18 8.08 8 8.29 8.27 8.25 8.29 8.94 8.58 8.35 8.76 8.68 8.78 8.79 8.72 8.5 8.85 9.04 8.76 8.63 8.61 8.53 8.58 8.65 8.4 8.31 8.24 8.08 8.05 8.03 8.05 7.93 7.93
MAPE (%)
196 110.5 100.67 105.75 89.6 88.17 77.86 89.25 86.44 87.8 80.18 77.58 75.38 80.29 79.2 78.25 78.41 96.28 91.42 87.65 97.24 95.05 96.17 95.54 93.68 90.42 99.07 102.54 99.03 96.57 95.52 93.66 93.85 94.65 91.94 90.08 88.62 86.39 85.44 84.53 84.44 82.64 82.21
34.15 24.89 24.92 25.93 23.87 24.06 22.46 23.72 23.62 23.96 22.41 22.26 22.13 22.75 22.76 22.76 22.89 23.99 23.14 22.63 23.39 23.27 23.51 23.58 23.46 22.94 23.57 23.95 23.25 22.99 22.99 22.84 22.96 23.14 22.48 22.29 22.18 21.8 21.77 21.74 21.82 21.54 21.57
Tracking Signal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18.53 19.52 20.54 21.54 22.54 23.55 24.54 25.53 26.55 27.56 28.54 29.54 30.54 31.53 32.53 33.54 34.52 35.52 36.51 37.01 38.01 39 40.01 40.99 41.99
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 350 7.62 77.45 20.83 45.95 Alpha=0 F(0)=27 F'(0)=27
1 2 8 6
334 336 344 350
7.77 7.64 7.65 7.62
80.36 78.67 78.35 77.45
21.16 20.85 20.89 20.83
42.97 43.95 44.95 45.95
LR Forecast Result for 261181 R-square
5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Forecast byForecast CFE LR Error 27 35.93 -8.93 41 35.86 5.14 32 35.79 -3.79 36 35.72 0.28 38 35.65 2.35 32 35.58 -3.58 36 35.51 0.49 31 35.44 -4.44 40 35.37 4.63 35 35.3 -0.3 37 35.23 1.77 29 35.16 -6.16 34 35.09 -1.09 34 35.02 -1.02 39 34.95 4.05 35 34.88 0.12 35 34.82 0.18 36 34.75 1.25 47 34.68 12.32 25 34.61 -9.61 31 34.54 -3.54 44 34.47 9.53 34 34.4 -0.4 38 34.33 3.67 36 34.26 1.74 34 34.19 -0.19 30 34.12 -4.12 45 34.05 10.95 41 33.98 7.02 28 33.91 -5.91 32 33.84 -1.84 35 33.77 1.23 33 33.7 -0.7 37 33.63 3.37 38 33.56 4.44 27 33.49 -6.49 32 33.42 -1.42 33 33.35 -0.35 25 33.28 -8.28 34 33.21 0.79 34 33.14 0.86 36 33.07 2.93 30 33 -3 35 32.93 2.07
-8.93 -3.79 -7.59 -7.31 -4.96 -8.54 -8.06 -12.5 -7.87 -8.18 -6.41 -12.58 -13.67 -14.7 -10.65 -10.54 -10.35 -9.1 3.23 -6.38 -9.91 -0.38 -0.78 2.9 4.64 4.45 0.34 11.29 18.31 12.4 10.57 11.8 11.1 14.47 18.91 12.42 11 10.65 2.38 3.17 4.03 6.96 3.95 6.02
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
28 29 35 33
32.86 32.79 32.72 32.65 32.58 32.51 32.44 32.37 32.3 32.23 32.16 32.09 32.02 31.95 31.88 31.81
-4.86 1.16 -3.79 -2.63 2.28 -0.35 0.35 -2.67E-05 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 393
-2.67E-05 3.49 21.73 10.47 -7.65E-06 4.13E-02 Y-intercept=36.0018 Slope=-0.0698
MAD
MSE 8.93 7.03 5.95 4.53 4.1 4.01 3.51 3.63 3.74 3.39 3.25 3.49 3.3 3.14 3.2 3.01 2.84 2.75 3.26 3.58 3.57 3.84 3.69 3.69 3.62 3.48 3.51 3.77 3.89 3.95 3.88 3.8 3.71 3.7 3.72 3.8 3.73 3.64 3.76 3.69 3.62 3.6 3.59 3.55
MAPE (%) 79.78 53.09 40.19 30.16 25.23 23.16 19.89 19.87 20.04 18.05 16.69 18.46 17.14 15.99 16.01 15.01 14.13 13.43 20.72 24.3 23.74 26.79 25.63 25.13 24.24 23.31 23.08 26.54 27.32 27.57 26.79 26 25.23 24.82 24.68 25.16 24.54 23.89 25.04 24.43 23.85 23.49 23.15 22.72
Tracking Signal
33.08 -1 22.81 -0.54 19.15 -1.27 14.56 -1.61 12.88 -1.21 12.6 -2.13 10.99 -2.3 11.41 -3.45 11.43 -2.11 10.37 -2.41 9.86 -1.98 10.81 -3.61 10.23 -4.14 9.71 -4.68 9.76 -3.33 9.17 -3.5 8.66 -3.64 8.37 -3.3 9.31 0.99 10.77 -1.78 10.8 -2.77 11.29 -9.87E-02 10.85 -0.21 10.8 0.78 10.56 1.28 10.18 1.28 10.31 9.60E-02 10.81 2.99 11.03 4.71 11.36 3.14 11.18 2.72 10.94 3.1 10.68 2.99 10.63 3.91 10.66 5.09 11.03 3.27 10.85 2.95 10.6 2.93 11.17 0.63 10.95 0.86 10.75 1.11 10.68 1.93 10.67 1.1 10.56 1.7
R-square
7.35E-02 0.19 0.13 0.04 9.78E-02 7.37E-02 0.14 4.24E-02 4.18E-02 2.46E-02 6.70E-02 0.07 7.97E-02 3.93E-02 3.79E-02 3.65E-02 3.04E-02 9.02E-03 0.01 1.73E-02 7.59E-03 8.69E-03 1.03E-02 1.24E-02 1.36E-02 1.32E-02 1.91E-02 2.93E-02 2.04E-02 1.96E-02 2.21E-02 2.28E-02 2.74E-02 3.39E-02 2.63E-02 0.03 2.82E-02 2.44E-02 0.03 2.86E-02 3.14E-02 3.22E-02 3.49E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total MR
3.58 3.59 3.56 3.49
22.74 22.56 22.19 21.73
10.71 10.76 10.67 10.47
0.32 -0.73 -9.80E-02 -7.65E-06
3.50E-02 3.65E-02 3.88E-02 4.13E-02
erifikasi Fungsi Peramalan Xt Ft 27 35.932 41 35.862 32 35.792 36 35.723 38 35.653 32 35.583 36 35.513 31 35.443 40 35.374 35 35.304 37 35.234 29 35.164 Total MR MR
UCL LCL Daerah A + Daerah A Daerah B + Daerah B -
Ft-Xt 8.932 -5.138 3.792 -0.277 -2.347 3.583 -0.487 4.443 -4.626 0.304 -1.766 6.164 6.188 16.461 -16.461 10.974 -10.974 5.487 -5.487
MR 14.070 8.930 4.070 2.070 5.930 4.070 4.930 9.070 4.930 2.070 7.930 68.070
UCL 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461
LCL -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46
A+ 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97
A-10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97
B+ 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
B-5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49
20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 -5.000 -10.000 -15.000
-20.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Ro 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Column AL Column AN Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES Forecast Result for 531550 5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast SES Error 34 26 25 26 35 38 19 27 15 26 29 34 30 33 28 26 28 34 26 28 25 39 27 18 36 35 25 24 29 28 24 25 26 35 25 24 35 32 31 24 33 22 25
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
-8 -9 -8 1 4 -15 -7 -19 -8 -5 0 -4 -1 -6 -8 -6 0 -8 -6 -9 5 -7 -16 2 1 -9 -10 -5 -6 -10 -9 -8 1 -9 -10 1 -2 -3 -10 -1 -12 -9
CFE
-8 -17 -25 -24 -20 -35 -42 -61 -69 -74 -74 -78 -79 -85 -93 -99 -99 -107 -113 -122 -117 -124 -140 -138 -137 -146 -156 -161 -167 -177 -186 -194 -193 -202 -212 -211 -213 -216 -226 -227 -239 -248
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
33 25 25 23 28
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 -284 6.68 62.72 27.84 -42.51 Alpha=0 F(0)=34
-1 -9 -9 -11 -6
-249 -258 -267 -278 -284
DES Forecast Result for 531550 MAD
MSE
8 8.5 8.33 6.5 6 7.5 7.43 8.88 8.78 8.4 7.64 7.33 6.85 6.79 6.87 6.81 6.41 6.5 6.47 6.6 6.52 6.55 6.96 6.75 6.52 6.62 6.74 6.68 6.66 6.77 6.84 6.88 6.7 6.76 6.86 6.69 6.57 6.47 6.56 6.43 6.56 6.62
MAPE (%)
64 72.5 69.67 52.5 45.2 75.17 71.43 107.63 102.78 95 86.36 80.5 74.38 71.64 71.13 68.94 64.88 64.83 63.32 64.2 62.33 61.73 70.17 67.42 64.76 65.38 66.67 65.18 64.17 65.37 65.87 65.81 63.85 64.35 65.37 63.58 61.97 60.58 61.59 60.08 62.12 62.57
30.77 33.38 32.51 25.1 22.18 31.64 30.83 42.81 41.47 39.05 35.5 33.65 31.3 30.59 30.6 30.03 28.26 28.4 28.03 28.43 27.69 27.61 30.27 29.24 28.19 28.49 28.98 28.56 28.31 28.76 28.99 29.05 28.25 28.48 28.86 28.14 27.54 27.07 27.45 26.84 27.51 27.72
Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -3.69 -3.33 -4.67 -5.65 -6.87 -7.86 -8.81 -9.69 -10.64 -11.54 -12.53 -13.54 -14.53 -15.44 -16.46 -17.46 -18.48 -17.93 -18.94 -20.13 -20.44 -21.01 -22.07 -23.14 -24.11 -25.09 -26.16 -27.2 -28.22 -28.82 -29.86 -30.92 -31.52 -32.43 -33.37 -34.43 -35.33 -36.43 -37.47
R-square
0.55 0.83
0.99
0.99
0.96 0.86 0.93
5/15/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
6.49 6.55 6.6 6.7 6.68
61.14 61.59 62.02 63.3 62.72
27.14 27.34 27.53 27.98 27.84
-38.38 -39.42 -40.45 -41.52 -42.51
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
cast Result for 531550 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 34 26 25 26 35 38 19 27 15 26 29 34 30 33 28 26 28 34 26 28 25 39 27 18 36 35 25 24 29 28 24 25 26 35 25 24 35 32 31 24 33 22 25
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
-8 -9 -8 1 4 -15 -7 -19 -8 -5 0 -4 -1 -6 -8 -6 0 -8 -6 -9 5 -7 -16 2 1 -9 -10 -5 -6 -10 -9 -8 1 -9 -10 1 -2 -3 -10 -1 -12 -9
CFE
MAD
-8 -17 -25 -24 -20 -35 -42 -61 -69 -74 -74 -78 -79 -85 -93 -99 -99 -107 -113 -122 -117 -124 -140 -138 -137 -146 -156 -161 -167 -177 -186 -194 -193 -202 -212 -211 -213 -216 -226 -227 -239 -248
MSE
8 8.5 8.33 6.5 6 7.5 7.43 8.88 8.78 8.4 7.64 7.33 6.85 6.79 6.87 6.81 6.41 6.5 6.47 6.6 6.52 6.55 6.96 6.75 6.52 6.62 6.74 6.68 6.66 6.77 6.84 6.88 6.7 6.76 6.86 6.69 6.57 6.47 6.56 6.43 6.56 6.62
MAPE (%)
64 72.5 69.67 52.5 45.2 75.17 71.43 107.63 102.78 95 86.36 80.5 74.38 71.64 71.13 68.94 64.88 64.83 63.32 64.2 62.33 61.73 70.17 67.42 64.76 65.38 66.67 65.18 64.17 65.37 65.87 65.81 63.85 64.35 65.37 63.58 61.97 60.58 61.59 60.08 62.12 62.57
30.77 33.38 32.51 25.1 22.18 31.64 30.83 42.81 41.47 39.05 35.5 33.65 31.3 30.59 30.6 30.03 28.26 28.4 28.03 28.43 27.69 27.61 30.27 29.24 28.19 28.49 28.98 28.56 28.31 28.76 28.99 29.05 28.25 28.48 28.86 28.14 27.54 27.07 27.45 26.84 27.51 27.72
33 25 25 23 28
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 -284 6.68 62.72 27.84 -42.51 Alpha=0 F(0)=34 F'(0)=34
-1 -9 -9 -11 -6
-249 -258 -267 -278 -284
6.49 6.55 6.6 6.7 6.68
61.14 61.59 62.02 63.3 62.72
27.14 27.34 27.53 27.98 27.84
LR Forecast Result for 531550 Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -3.69 -3.33 -4.67 -5.65 -6.87 -7.86 -8.81 -9.69 -10.64 -11.54 -12.53 -13.54 -14.53 -15.44 -16.46 -17.46 -18.48 -17.93 -18.94 -20.13 -20.44 -21.01 -22.07 -23.14 -24.11 -25.09 -26.16 -27.2 -28.22 -28.82 -29.86 -30.92 -31.52 -32.43 -33.37 -34.43 -35.33 -36.43 -37.47
R-square
0.55 0.83
0.99
0.99
0.96 0.86 0.93
5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast LR Error 34 28.77 5.23 26 28.74 -2.74 25 28.71 -3.71 26 28.68 -2.68 35 28.65 6.35 38 28.62 9.38 19 28.59 -9.59 27 28.56 -1.56 15 28.53 -13.53 26 28.51 -2.51 29 28.48 0.52 34 28.45 5.55 30 28.42 1.58 33 28.39 4.61 28 28.36 -0.36 26 28.33 -2.33 28 28.3 -0.3 34 28.27 5.73 26 28.24 -2.24 28 28.21 -0.21 25 28.19 -3.19 39 28.16 10.84 27 28.13 -1.13 18 28.1 -10.1 36 28.07 7.93 35 28.04 6.96 25 28.01 -3.01 24 27.98 -3.98 29 27.95 1.05 28 27.92 7.67E-02 24 27.89 -3.89 25 27.87 -2.87 26 27.84 -1.84 35 27.81 7.19 25 27.78 -2.78 24 27.75 -3.75 35 27.72 7.28 32 27.69 4.31 31 27.66 3.34 24 27.63 -3.63 33 27.6 5.4 22 27.57 -5.57 25 27.55 -2.55
-38.38 -39.42 -40.45 -41.52 -42.51
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
33 25 25 23 28
27.52 27.49 27.46 27.43 27.4 27.37 27.34 27.31 27.28 27.25 27.23 27.2 27.17 27.14 27.11 27.08 27.05
5.48 -2.49 -2.46 -4.43 0.6 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 308
-5.72E-05 4.14 26.25 15.67 -1.38E-05 6.15E-03 Y-intercept=28.7961 Slope=-0.0291
CFE
MAD 5.23 2.5 -1.21 -3.89 2.46 11.83 2.24 0.68 -12.86 -15.36 -14.84 -9.28 -7.7 -3.09 -3.45 -5.78 -6.08 -0.36 -2.6 -2.81 -6 4.85 3.72 -6.38 1.55 8.51 5.5 1.52 2.57 2.64 -1.25 -4.11 -5.95 1.24 -1.54 -5.28 2 6.31 9.64 6.01 11.41 5.83 3.29
MSE 5.23 3.99 3.89 3.59 4.14 5.01 5.67 5.16 6.09 5.73 5.26 5.28 5 4.97 4.66 4.52 4.27 4.35 4.24 4.04 4 4.31 4.17 4.42 4.56 4.65 4.59 4.57 4.45 4.3 4.29 4.24 4.17 4.26 4.22 4.2 4.29 4.29 4.26 4.25 4.27 4.31 4.26
MAPE (%) 27.38 17.44 16.21 13.95 19.23 30.68 39.44 34.82 51.3 46.8 42.57 41.59 38.59 37.35 34.87 33.03 31.09 31.19 29.81 28.32 27.46 31.55 30.24 33.22 34.41 34.95 33.99 33.34 32.23 31.16 30.64 29.94 29.14 29.8 29.17 28.75 29.41 29.12 28.66 28.27 28.29 28.36 27.85
Tracking Signal
15.39 1 12.96 0.63 13.59 -0.31 12.77 -1.08 13.84 0.59 15.65 2.36 20.62 0.4 18.77 0.13 26.71 -2.11 25 -2.68 22.89 -2.82 22.35 -1.76 21.03 -1.54 20.53 -0.62 19.25 -0.74 18.6 -1.28 17.57 -1.43 17.53 -8.16E-02 17.06 -0.61 16.25 -0.7 16.08 -1.5 16.61 1.13 16.07 0.89 17.74 -1.44 17.91 0.34 17.99 1.83 17.77 1.2 17.73 0.33 17.24 0.58 16.67 0.62 16.66 -0.29 16.5 -0.97 16.21 -1.43 16.34 0.29 16.19 -0.36 16.17 -1.26 16.3 0.47 16.22 1.47 16.08 2.26 16.06 1.42 16.07 2.67 16.29 1.36 16.15 0.77
R-square
9.73E-02 0.01 7.19E-02 1.28E-02 0.15 2.69E-03 3.33E-04 4.11E-02 5.27E-02 0.04 1.48E-02 9.47E-03 1.68E-03 1.98E-03 4.51E-03 4.79E-03 7.47E-04 1.48E-03 1.70E-03 4.11E-03 2.65E-03 2.11E-03 3.35E-03 1.40E-03 4.49E-03 2.75E-03 1.75E-03 2.09E-03 2.29E-03 2.26E-03 2.95E-03 3.73E-03 2.78E-03 3.02E-03 3.91E-03 3.39E-03 4.47E-03 5.94E-03 4.81E-03 7.01E-03 5.08E-03 4.89E-03
8.77 6.29 3.83 -0.6 -5.72E-05
4.29 4.25 4.21 4.22 4.14
27.9 27.42 26.95 26.8 26.25
16.16 16.02 15.88 15.96 15.67
2.04 1.48 0.91 -0.14 -1.38E-05
6.36E-03 5.93E-03 5.79E-03 5.78E-03 6.15E-03
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No Xt Ft 1 34 28.767 2 26 28.738 3 25 28.709 4 26 28.680 5 35 28.651 6 38 28.622 7 19 28.592 8 27 28.563 9 15 28.534 10 26 28.505 11 29 28.476 12 34 28.447 Total MR MR
UCL LCL Daerah Daerah Daerah Daerah
A A B B
+ + -
Ft-Xt -5.233 2.738 3.709 2.680 -6.349 -9.378 9.592 1.563 13.534 2.505 -0.524 -5.55 7.281 19.367 -19.367 12.911 -12.911 6.456 -6.456
MR 7.971 0.971 1.029 9.029 3.029 18.971 8.029 11.971 11.029 3.029 5.029 80.087
UCL 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37
LCL -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37
A+ 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91
A-12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91
B+ 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46
B-6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46
20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 -5.000 -10.000 -15.000
-20.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Column AM Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Column AT
SES Forecast Result for 510039 5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast SES Error 12 15 5 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 10 9 8 5 6 10 7 10 8 8 5 7 6 6 5 8 5 13 7 8 7 6 8 5 11 12 8 9 10 11 8 7 5
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
CFE
3 -7 -6 -7 -4 -5 -5 -7 -1 -2 -3 -4 -7 -6 -2 -5 -2 -4 -4 -7 -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -7 1 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -7 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -7
3 -4 -10 -17 -21 -26 -31 -38 -39 -41 -44 -48 -55 -61 -63 -68 -70 -74 -78 -85 -90 -96 -102 -109 -113 -120 -119 -124 -128 -133 -139 -143 -150 -151 -151 -155 -158 -160 -161 -165 -170 -177
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
7 12 15 5 6
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 -192 4.38 23.53 69 -43.81 Alpha=0 F(0)=12
-5 0 3 -7 -6
-182 -182 -179 -186 -192
DES Forecast Result for 510039 MAD
MSE
3 5 5.33 5.75 5.4 5.33 5.29 5.5 5 4.7 4.55 4.5 4.69 4.79 4.6 4.63 4.47 4.44 4.42 4.55 4.57 4.64 4.7 4.79 4.76 4.85 4.7 4.71 4.69 4.7 4.74 4.72 4.79 4.68 4.54 4.53 4.49 4.42 4.33 4.33 4.34 4.4
MAPE (%)
9 29 31.33 35.75 31.8 30.67 29.86 32.25 28.78 26.3 24.73 24 25.92 26.64 25.13 25.13 23.88 23.44 23.05 24.35 24.38 24.91 25.39 26.38 25.96 26.85 25.89 25.86 25.52 25.5 25.84 25.53 26.24 25.5 24.77 24.53 24.11 23.58 23 22.83 22.88 23.5
20 80 86.67 100 90 86.9 84.69 91.61 82.44 76.19 72.3 70.44 75.79 77.52 73.69 73.54 70.39 69.26 68.25 71.84 71.82 73.1 74.27 77.01 75.93 78.39 75.77 75.62 74.73 74.62 75.44 74.65 76.63 74.64 72.51 71.88 70.84 69.5 67.95 67.51 67.6 69.32
Tracking Signal 1 -0.8 -1.88 -2.96 -3.89 -4.88 -5.86 -6.91 -7.8 -8.72 -9.68 -10.67 -11.72 -12.75 -13.7 -14.7 -15.66 -16.65 -17.64 -18.68 -19.69 -20.71 -21.72 -22.75 -23.74 -24.76 -25.3 -26.3 -27.29 -28.3 -29.31 -30.3 -31.33 -32.29 -33.24 -34.23 -35.22 -36.19 -37.15 -38.15 -39.16 -40.18
R-square
0.16 0.55
5/15/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
4.42 4.32 4.29 4.35 4.38
23.53 23 22.69 23.26 23.53
69.37 67.8 66.73 68.33 69
-41.19 -42.15 -41.74 -42.78 -43.81
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
cast Result for 510039 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 12 15 5 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 10 9 8 5 6 10 7 10 8 8 5 7 6 6 5 8 5 13 7 8 7 6 8 5 11 12 8 9 10 11 8 7
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
CFE
3 -7 -6 -7 -4 -5 -5 -7 -1 -2 -3 -4 -7 -6 -2 -5 -2 -4 -4 -7 -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -7 1 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -7 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5
MAD
3 -4 -10 -17 -21 -26 -31 -38 -39 -41 -44 -48 -55 -61 -63 -68 -70 -74 -78 -85 -90 -96 -102 -109 -113 -120 -119 -124 -128 -133 -139 -143 -150 -151 -151 -155 -158 -160 -161 -165 -170
MSE
3 5 5.33 5.75 5.4 5.33 5.29 5.5 5 4.7 4.55 4.5 4.69 4.79 4.6 4.63 4.47 4.44 4.42 4.55 4.57 4.64 4.7 4.79 4.76 4.85 4.7 4.71 4.69 4.7 4.74 4.72 4.79 4.68 4.54 4.53 4.49 4.42 4.33 4.33 4.34
MAPE (%)
9 29 31.33 35.75 31.8 30.67 29.86 32.25 28.78 26.3 24.73 24 25.92 26.64 25.13 25.13 23.88 23.44 23.05 24.35 24.38 24.91 25.39 26.38 25.96 26.85 25.89 25.86 25.52 25.5 25.84 25.53 26.24 25.5 24.77 24.53 24.11 23.58 23 22.83 22.88
20 80 86.67 100 90 86.9 84.69 91.61 82.44 76.19 72.3 70.44 75.79 77.52 73.69 73.54 70.39 69.26 68.25 71.84 71.82 73.1 74.27 77.01 75.93 78.39 75.77 75.62 74.73 74.62 75.44 74.65 76.63 74.64 72.51 71.88 70.84 69.5 67.95 67.51 67.6
5 7 12 15 5 6
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 -192 4.38 23.53 69 -43.81 Alpha=0 F(0)=12 F'(0)=12
-7 -5 0 3 -7 -6
-177 -182 -182 -179 -186 -192
4.4 4.42 4.32 4.29 4.35 4.38
23.5 23.53 23 22.69 23.26 23.53
69.32 69.37 67.8 66.73 68.33 69
LR Forecast Result for 510039 Tracking Signal 1 -0.8 -1.88 -2.96 -3.89 -4.88 -5.86 -6.91 -7.8 -8.72 -9.68 -10.67 -11.72 -12.75 -13.7 -14.7 -15.66 -16.65 -17.64 -18.68 -19.69 -20.71 -21.72 -22.75 -23.74 -24.76 -25.3 -26.3 -27.29 -28.3 -29.31 -30.3 -31.33 -32.29 -33.24 -34.23 -35.22 -36.19 -37.15 -38.15 -39.16
R-square
0.16 0.55
5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Forecast byForecast LR Error 12 7.74 4.26 15 7.75 7.25 5 7.76 -2.76 6 7.78 -1.78 5 7.79 -2.79 8 7.8 0.2 7 7.81 -0.81 7 7.82 -0.82 5 7.83 -2.83 11 7.84 3.16 10 7.85 2.15 9 7.86 1.14 8 7.87 0.13 5 7.88 -2.88 6 7.9 -1.9 10 7.91 2.09 7 7.92 -0.92 10 7.93 2.07 8 7.94 6.03E-02 8 7.95 4.93E-02 5 7.96 -2.96 7 7.97 -0.97 6 7.98 -1.98 6 7.99 -1.99 5 8.01 -3.01 8 8.02 -1.64E-02 5 8.03 -3.03 13 8.04 4.96 7 8.05 -1.05 8 8.06 -6.03E-02 7 8.07 -1.07 6 8.08 -2.08 8 8.09 -9.32E-02 5 8.1 -3.1 11 8.12 2.88 12 8.13 3.87 8 8.14 -0.14 9 8.15 0.85 10 8.16 1.84 11 8.17 2.83 8 8.18 -0.18 7 8.19 -1.19
-40.18 -41.19 -42.15 -41.74 -42.78 -43.81
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
5 7 12 15 5 6
8.2 8.21 8.22 8.24 8.25 8.26 8.27 8.28 8.29 8.3 8.31 8.32 8.33 8.35 8.36 8.37 8.38 8.39
-3.2 -1.21 3.78 6.76 -3.25 -2.26 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 108
7.63E-06 2.1 7.02 27.87 3.64E-06 3.28E-03 Y-intercept=7.7314 Slope=0.0110
CFE 4.26 11.5 8.74 6.96 4.18 4.38 3.57 2.75 -7.58E-02 3.08 5.23 6.37 6.49 3.61 1.71 3.81 2.89 4.96 5.02 5.07 2.11 1.14 -0.85 -2.84 -5.85 -5.86 -8.89 -3.93 -4.98 -5.04 -6.11 -8.19 -8.29 -11.39 -8.51 -4.63 -4.77 -3.92 -2.08 0.75 0.57 -0.62
MAD
MSE 4.26 5.75 4.76 4.01 3.77 3.17 2.83 2.58 2.61 2.66 2.62 2.49 2.31 2.35 2.32 2.31 2.23 2.22 2.1 2 2.05 2 2 2 2.04 1.96 2 2.11 2.07 2 1.97 1.98 1.92 1.95 1.98 2.03 1.98 1.95 1.95 1.97 1.93 1.91
MAPE (%) 18.13 35.32 26.09 20.36 17.84 14.87 12.84 11.32 10.95 10.86 10.29 9.54 8.81 8.77 8.43 8.17 7.74 7.55 7.15 6.8 6.89 6.62 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.25 6.36 7.01 6.81 6.58 6.41 6.34 6.15 6.25 6.31 6.55 6.38 6.23 6.16 6.2 6.05 5.94
Tracking Signal
35.48 1 41.9 2 46.36 1.84 42.17 1.74 44.88 1.11 37.82 1.38 34.07 1.26 31.27 1.07 34.09 -2.91E-02 33.55 1.16 32.45 2 30.8 2.55 28.55 2.81 30.63 1.53 30.7 0.74 30.09 1.65 29.09 1.3 28.62 2.24 27.16 2.39 25.83 2.53 27.42 1.03 26.81 0.57 27.08 -0.42 27.33 -1.42 28.65 -2.87 27.55 -2.99 28.77 -4.45 29.11 -1.87 28.62 -2.41 27.69 -2.52 27.29 -3.1 27.53 -4.15 26.73 -4.32 27.77 -5.83 27.72 -4.3 27.85 -2.28 27.14 -2.41 26.68 -2.01 26.47 -1.07 26.45 0.38 25.86 0.3 25.65 -0.32
R-square
0.48 0.18 4.10E-02 3.74E-02 2.09E-02 1.07E-02 8.05E-05 8.99E-03 2.27E-02 3.07E-02 0.03 7.92E-03 1.84E-03 7.34E-03 4.15E-03 1.07E-02 1.04E-02 1.02E-02 2.13E-03 1.15E-03 1.04E-03 3.16E-03 9.66E-03 9.49E-03 1.90E-02 3.99E-03 5.67E-03 5.76E-03 7.73E-03 1.23E-02 1.24E-02 0.02 1.16E-02 4.55E-03 4.80E-03 4.05E-03 2.94E-03 2.63E-03 2.80E-03 3.00E-03
-3.82 -5.04 -1.26 5.5 2.26 7.63E-06
1.94 1.92 1.96 2.07 2.09 2.1
6.04 5.94 6.12 6.98 7.06 7.02
26.54 26.33 26.45 26.85 27.66 27.87
-1.97 -2.62 -0.64 2.66 1.08 3.64E-06
4.39E-03 5.51E-03 3.43E-03 5.03E-03 3.44E-03 3.28E-03
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No Xt Ft 1 12 7.742 2 15 7.753 3 5 7.764 4 6 7.775 5 5 7.786 6 8 7.797 7 7 7.808 8 7 7.819 9 5 7.830 10 11 7.841 11 10 7.852 12 9 7.863 Total MR
Ft-Xt -4.258 -7.247 2.764 1.775 2.786 -0.203 0.808 0.819 2.830 -3.159 -2.148 -1.137
MR
UCL LCL Daerah Daerah Daerah Daerah
A A B B
+ + -
2.639 7.021 -7.021 4.680 -4.680 2.340 -2.340
MR 2.989 10.011 0.989 1.011 2.989 1.011 0.011 2.011 5.989 1.011 1.011 29.033
UCL 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02
LCL -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02
A+ 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68
A-4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68
B+ 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34
B-2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34
8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0.000 -2.000 -4.000 -6.000
-8.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Ro 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Column AM Column AP Column AQ Column AO Column AR Column AS Column AT Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES Forecast Result for 892140 5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast SES Error 5 4 3 8 8 4 7 10 4 3 5 5 8 9 10 12 11 14 4 2 5 5 2 6 8 10 5 6 9 5 4 7 11 5 4 9 5 11 4 9 7 5 8
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
CFE
-1 -2 3 3 -1 2 5 -1 -2 0 0 3 4 5 7 6 9 -1 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 5 0 1 4 0 -1 2 6 0 -1 4 0 6 -1 4 2 0 3
-1 -3 0 3 2 4 9 8 6 6 6 9 13 18 25 31 40 39 36 36 36 33 34 37 42 42 43 47 47 46 48 54 54 53 57 57 63 62 66 68 68 71
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
6 5 3 4 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 71 2.36 10.19 35.44 30.06 0.29 Alpha=0 F(0)=5
1 0 -2 -1 2
72 72 70 69 71
DES Forecast Result for 892140 MAD
MSE
1 1.5 2 2.25 2 2 2.43 2.25 2.22 2 1.82 1.92 2.08 2.29 2.6 2.81 3.18 3.06 3.05 2.9 2.76 2.77 2.7 2.71 2.8 2.69 2.63 2.68 2.59 2.53 2.52 2.63 2.55 2.5 2.54 2.47 2.57 2.53 2.56 2.55 2.49 2.5
MAPE (%)
1 2.5 4.67 5.75 4.8 4.67 7.57 6.75 6.44 5.8 5.27 5.58 6.38 7.71 10.47 12.06 16.12 15.28 14.95 14.2 13.52 13.32 12.78 12.63 13.12 12.62 12.19 12.32 11.9 11.53 11.29 12.06 11.7 11.38 11.51 11.19 11.86 11.58 11.69 11.5 11.22 11.17
25 45.83 43.06 41.67 38.33 36.71 38.61 36.9 40.21 36.19 32.9 33.28 34.14 35.27 36.81 37.92 39.47 38.67 44.53 42.3 40.29 45.27 44.03 43.76 44.01 42.31 41.36 41.47 40.04 39.54 39.19 39.67 38.47 38.07 38.25 37.19 37.66 37.33 37.51 37.29 36.38 36.4
Tracking Signal -1 -2 0 1.33 1 2 3.71 3.56 2.7 3 3.3 4.7 6.26 7.88 9.62 11.02 12.59 12.76 11.79 12.41 13.03 11.9 12.61 13.66 15 15.6 16.35 17.55 18.17 18.16 19.08 20.57 21.21 21.2 22.42 23.06 24.54 24.54 25.74 26.67 27.33 28.4
R-square
0 0.11 3.45E-02 0.11 0.28 0.17 7.41E-02 6.62E-02 5.98E-02 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.44 0.32 0.3 0.28 0.2 0.21 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.3 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.31 0.3 0.27 0.3 0.29 0.32 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.34
5/15/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
2.47 2.41 2.4 2.37 2.36
10.93 10.68 10.53 10.33 10.19
35.94 35.13 35.83 35.59 35.44
29.21 29.89 29.17 29.12 30.06
0.35 0.33 0.3 0.28 0.29
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
ecast Result for 892140 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 5 4 3 8 8 4 7 10 4 3 5 5 8 9 10 12 11 14 4 2 5 5 2 6 8 10 5 6 9 5 4 7 11 5 4 9 5 11 4 9 7 5 8
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
CFE
-1 -2 3 3 -1 2 5 -1 -2 0 0 3 4 5 7 6 9 -1 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 5 0 1 4 0 -1 2 6 0 -1 4 0 6 -1 4 2 0 3
MAD
-1 -3 0 3 2 4 9 8 6 6 6 9 13 18 25 31 40 39 36 36 36 33 34 37 42 42 43 47 47 46 48 54 54 53 57 57 63 62 66 68 68 71
MSE
1 1.5 2 2.25 2 2 2.43 2.25 2.22 2 1.82 1.92 2.08 2.29 2.6 2.81 3.18 3.06 3.05 2.9 2.76 2.77 2.7 2.71 2.8 2.69 2.63 2.68 2.59 2.53 2.52 2.63 2.55 2.5 2.54 2.47 2.57 2.53 2.56 2.55 2.49 2.5
MAPE (%)
1 2.5 4.67 5.75 4.8 4.67 7.57 6.75 6.44 5.8 5.27 5.58 6.38 7.71 10.47 12.06 16.12 15.28 14.95 14.2 13.52 13.32 12.78 12.63 13.12 12.62 12.19 12.32 11.9 11.53 11.29 12.06 11.7 11.38 11.51 11.19 11.86 11.58 11.69 11.5 11.22 11.17
25 45.83 43.06 41.67 38.33 36.71 38.61 36.9 40.21 36.19 32.9 33.28 34.14 35.27 36.81 37.92 39.47 38.67 44.53 42.3 40.29 45.27 44.03 43.76 44.01 42.31 41.36 41.47 40.04 39.54 39.19 39.67 38.47 38.07 38.25 37.19 37.66 37.33 37.51 37.29 36.38 36.4
6 5 3 4 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 71 2.36 10.19 35.44 30.06 0.29 Alpha=0 F(0)=5 F'(0)=5
1 0 -2 -1 2
72 72 70 69 71
2.47 2.41 2.4 2.37 2.36
10.93 10.68 10.53 10.33 10.19
35.94 35.13 35.83 35.59 35.44
LR Forecast Result for 892140 Tracking Signal -1 -2 0 1.33 1 2 3.71 3.56 2.7 3 3.3 4.7 6.26 7.88 9.62 11.02 12.59 12.76 11.79 12.41 13.03 11.9 12.61 13.66 15 15.6 16.35 17.55 18.17 18.16 19.08 20.57 21.21 21.2 22.42 23.06 24.54 24.54 25.74 26.67 27.33 28.4
R-square
0 0.11 3.45E-02 0.11 0.28 0.17 7.41E-02 6.62E-02 5.98E-02 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.44 0.32 0.3 0.28 0.2 0.21 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.3 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.31 0.3 0.27 0.3 0.29 0.32 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.34
5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast LR Error 5 6.55 -1.55 4 6.55 -2.55 3 6.55 -3.55 8 6.54 1.46 8 6.54 1.46 4 6.54 -2.54 7 6.54 0.46 10 6.53 3.47 4 6.53 -2.53 3 6.53 -3.53 5 6.52 -1.52 5 6.52 -1.52 8 6.52 1.48 9 6.51 2.49 10 6.51 3.49 12 6.51 5.49 11 6.5 4.5 14 6.5 7.5 4 6.5 -2.5 2 6.49 -4.49 5 6.49 -1.49 5 6.49 -1.49 2 6.48 -4.48 6 6.48 -0.48 8 6.48 1.52 10 6.47 3.53 5 6.47 -1.47 6 6.47 -0.47 9 6.46 2.54 5 6.46 -1.46 4 6.46 -2.46 7 6.46 0.54 11 6.45 4.55 5 6.45 -1.45 4 6.45 -2.45 9 6.44 2.56 5 6.44 -1.44 11 6.44 4.56 4 6.43 -2.43 9 6.43 2.57 7 6.43 0.57 5 6.42 -1.42 8 6.42 1.58
29.21 29.89 29.17 29.12 30.06
0.35 0.33 0.3 0.28 0.29
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
6 5 3 4 7
6.42 6.41 6.41 6.41 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.39 6.39 6.39 6.38 6.38 6.38 6.38 6.37 6.37 6.37
-0.42 -1.41 -3.41 -2.41 0.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 84
1.14E-05 2.37 7.79 46 4.83E-06 2.53E-04 Y-intercept=6.5576 Slope=-3.20E-3
CFE
MAD -1.55 -4.11 -7.65 -6.2 -4.74 -7.28 -6.81 -3.35 -5.87 -9.4 -10.92 -12.44 -10.96 -8.47 -4.98 0.51 5.01 12.51 10.01 5.52 4.03 2.54 -1.94 -2.42 -0.9 2.63 1.15 0.69 3.22 1.76 -0.7 -0.15 4.39 2.95 0.5 3.06 1.62 6.18 3.75 6.32 6.89 5.47 7.05
MSE 1.55 2.05 2.55 2.28 2.11 2.18 1.94 2.13 2.17 2.31 2.24 2.18 2.12 2.15 2.24 2.44 2.56 2.84 2.82 2.9 2.84 2.78 2.85 2.75 2.7 2.73 2.69 2.61 2.6 2.57 2.56 2.5 2.56 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.5 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.5 2.48 2.46
MAPE (%) 2.42 4.46 7.17 5.91 5.15 5.37 4.63 5.56 5.65 6.33 5.96 5.66 5.39 5.45 5.9 7.42 8.17 10.84 10.6 11.08 10.66 10.27 10.7 10.26 9.95 10.04 9.75 9.41 9.31 9.07 8.97 8.7 9.06 8.86 8.77 8.71 8.53 8.86 8.78 8.73 8.52 8.37 8.23
Tracking Signal
31.09 -1 47.43 -2 71.05 -3 57.83 -2.72 49.91 -2.24 52.17 -3.33 45.67 -3.51 44.29 -1.57 46.4 -2.7 53.51 -4.07 51.41 -4.88 49.66 -5.71 47.27 -5.16 45.86 -3.94 45.13 -2.22 45.17 0.21 44.92 1.95 45.4 4.41 46.3 3.55 55.22 1.9 54.01 1.42 52.9 0.92 60.35 -0.68 58.17 -0.88 56.6 -0.33 55.78 0.96 54.81 0.43 53.13 0.26 52.27 1.24 51.5 0.69 51.82 -0.27 50.45 -6.12E-02 50.17 1.72 49.55 1.16 49.88 0.2 49.28 1.21 48.73 0.65 48.54 2.42 48.85 1.47 48.34 2.48 47.37 2.76 46.92 2.21 46.28 2.87
R-square
0.69 0.21 0.38 0.26 3.26E-02 8.18E-02 0.16 0.2 0.23 0.15 7.23E-02 1.92E-02 1.69E-04 0.01 4.70E-02 2.71E-02 6.98E-03 3.51E-03 1.35E-03 7.09E-04 1.04E-03 1.84E-04 1.08E-03 2.52E-04 1.35E-04 1.41E-03 4.66E-04 1.48E-04 1.03E-04 2.07E-03 9.62E-04 1.43E-04 9.58E-04 3.62E-04 3.15E-03 1.20E-03 3.04E-03 3.51E-03 2.22E-03 3.48E-03
6.63 5.22 1.81 -0.6 1.14E-05
2.41 2.39 2.41 2.41 2.37
8.05 7.91 7.99 7.95 7.79
45.39 45.01 46.5 46.79 46
2.75 2.19 0.75 -0.25 4.83E-06
3.05E-03 1.93E-03 4.20E-04 2.58E-04 2.53E-04
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No Xt Ft 1 5 6.554 2 4 6.551 3 3 6.548 4 8 6.545 5 8 6.542 6 4 6.538 7 7 6.535 8 10 6.532 9 4 6.529 10 3 6.526 11 5 6.522 12 5 6.519 Total MR
Ft-Xt 1.554 2.551 3.548 -1.455 -1.458 2.538 -0.465 -3.468 2.529 3.526 1.522 1.519
MR
UCL LCL Daerah Daerah Daerah Daerah
A A B B
+ + -
2.364 6.288 -6.288 4.192 -4.192 2.096 -2.096
MR 0.997 0.997 5.003 0.003 3.997 3.003 3.003 5.997 0.997 2.003 0.003 26.003
UCL 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29
LCL -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29
A+ 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19
A-4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19
B+ 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
B-2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0.000 -2.000 -4.000 -6.000 -8.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
w Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Column AM Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Column AT
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $53,131,974.69 $53,012,814.69 $53,421,894.69 $53,434,374.69 $52,944,774.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Biaya Persediaan $272,703,873.47 $687,864,446.94 $575,567,852.25 $366,013,548.17 $302,009,773.47
Harga Barang/Unit $52,000.00 $7,000.00 $20,000.00 $58,000.00 $26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $300,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 7 17 15 9 8 Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42 Safety Stock 1 1 1 1 1
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 11 24 21 12 11 Stock 66 235 15 16 8 Rata-rata Persediaan 4 9 8 5 4 $10,288,850.00 $1,714,808.33
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $3,300,000.00 $7,200,000.00 $6,300,000.00 $3,600,000.00 $3,300,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $265,659,873.47 $530,128,146.94 $480,797,052.25 $320,606,248.17 $264,723,873.47
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
$161,774.37
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00 63.6
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun 54,929,094.69 54,333,294.69 56,378,694.69 56,441,094.69 53,993,094.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $281,689,473.47 $701,069,246.94 $602,179,052.25 $384,053,868.17 $307,251,373.47
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
2,500,000.00 48,543,750.00 93,950,839.00 5% 1,638,944.69 12% $300,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 7 17 15 9 8
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 11 24 21 12 11
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 1 1 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 4 9 8 5 4
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $3,300,000.00 $7,200,000.00 $6,300,000.00 $3,600,000.00 $3,300,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $274,645,473.47 $543,332,946.94 $507,408,252.25 $338,646,568.17 $269,965,473.47
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $56,726,214.69 $55,653,774.69 $59,335,494.69 $59,447,814.69 $55,041,414.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $290,675,073.47 $714,274,046.94 $628,790,252.25 $402,094,188.17 $312,492,973.47
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $300,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 7 17 15 9 8
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 11 24 21 12 11
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 1 1 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 4 9 8 5 4
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $3,300,000.00 $7,200,000.00 $6,300,000.00 $3,600,000.00 $3,300,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $283,631,073.47 $556,537,746.94 $534,019,452.25 $356,686,888.17 $275,207,073.47
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $54,929,094.69 $54,333,294.69 $56,378,694.69 $56,441,094.69 $53,993,094.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $505,605,852.25 $1,253,702,193.89 $1,118,287,304.50 $671,659,341.64 $581,416,846.94
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $1,500,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 16 36 32 19 17
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 5 11 10 6 5
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 2 2 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 8 18 16 10 9
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $7,500,000.00 $16,500,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $9,000,000.00 $7,500,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $494,361,852.25 $1,086,665,893.89 $1,014,816,504.50 $620,852,041.64 $539,930,946.94
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $56,726,214.69 $55,653,774.69 $59,335,494.69 $59,447,814.69 $55,041,414.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $521,779,932.25 $1,280,111,793.89 $1,171,509,704.50 $704,733,261.64 $591,900,046.94
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $1,500,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 16 36 32 19 17
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 5 11 10 6 5
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 2 2 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 8 18 16 10 9
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $7,500,000.00 $16,500,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $9,000,000.00 $7,500,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $510,535,932.25 $1,113,075,493.89 $1,068,038,904.50 $653,925,961.64 $550,414,146.94
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
Bulan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Σ
Data Pemakaian Tahun 2008 dan 2009 Kode 112106 261181 531550 6 34 20 6 34 22 4 35 22 6 32 29 4 35 19 7 31 17 4 33 38 5 31 26 3 32 22 2 25 25 7 38 26 7 39 18 61 399 284
Data Penyimpangan Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Rata-rata
112106 0.000% 0.000% 50.000% 0.000% 50.000% 14.286% 50.000% 20.000% 100.000% 200.000% 14.286% 14.286% 42.738%
Perhitungan EOQ Kode Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 112106 7 261181 17 531550 15 510039 9 892140 8 Analisis
Penyimpangan 261181 531550 2.941% 40.000% 2.941% 27.273% 5.714% 27.273% 3.125% 3.448% 5.714% 47.368% 6.452% 64.706% 0.000% 26.316% 6.452% 7.692% 3.125% 27.273% 28.000% 12.000% 15.789% 7.692% 17.949% 55.556% 8.184% 28.883%
QR* 7 17 14 8 8
1.Hasil Forecaseting=Tidak Valid 2.Q* dan QR*=Valid Penilaian Tugas 1.Lengkap 2.Informatif (diawali oleh tabel/data) laporan dalam bentuk PDF 1.Contreng Tidak bisa di print 2.Contreng Tidak diedit
Kenapa??
dan 2009 510039 7 7 11 7 12 9 6 6 7 7 8 5 92
892140 9 9 3 7 11 7 5 3 13 8 7 9 91
Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Σ % Validasi Validitas
ngan 510039 28.571% 28.571% 18.182% 28.571% 25.000% 0.000% 50.000% 50.000% 28.571% 28.571% 12.500% 80.000% 31.545%
892140 22.222% 22.222% 133.333% 0.000% 36.364% 0.000% 40.000% 133.333% 46.154% 12.500% 0.000% 22.222% 39.029%
Penyimpangan EOQ dan validasi Kode Penyimpangan Validasi 112106 0.000% Valid 261181 0.000% Valid 531550 6.667% Valid 510039 11.111% Valid 892140 0.000% Valid
Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112106 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 72
Hasil Peramalan Kode 261181 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 393
20% Validasi 112106 Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid
261181 Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid
Hasil Peramalan Kode 531550 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 336
Validasi 531550 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid Valid
510039 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 108
892140 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 84
510039 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid
892140 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid Valid
112106 8 2 6 8 4 1 7 3 4 2 7 2 3 3 4 9 5 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 9 8 3 5 2 8 6 6 7 7 5 8 2 4 3 10 3 10 5 2 5 2 5
261181 27 41 32 36 38 32 36 31 40 35 37 29 34 34 39 35 35 36 47 25 31 44 34 38 36 34 30 45 41 28 32 35 33 37 28 27 32 33 25 34 34 36 30 35 28 29 35
531550 34 26 25 26 35 38 19 27 15 26 29 34 30 33 28 26 28 34 26 28 25 39 27 18 36 35 25 24 29 28 24 25 26 35 25 24 35 32 31 24 33 22 25 33 25 25 23
510039 12 15 5 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 10 9 8 5 6 10 7 10 8 8 5 7 6 6 5 8 5 13 7 8 7 6 8 5 11 12 8 9 10 11 8 7 5 7 12 15 5
48
Kelompok Suku Cadang Alat Bantu Umum Material Konstruksi Bahan Baku Total
6
33
Stok Terakhir Nilai (juta) Posisi 18.71 181.23 606 14.06 284 8.71 998 104.91 11.91 4.152.526 32.5 4.461.429
28
6
Plot Data 892140 5 4 3 8 8 4 7 10 4 3 5 5 8 9 10 12 11 4 4 2 5 5 2 6 8 10 5 6 9 5 4 7 11 5 4 9 5 11 4 9 7 5 8 6 5 3 4
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
0 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row
7
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Item Besi Siku 50 x 50 x 50 x 600 mm Kawat Las AWS E6013 dia. 3.2 mm Vee Belt SPA 12.5 x 1175 La Bearing 6210 Z NTN Melting Crushible Porcelein, Lap : 30 cc
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
Kode 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Column C
Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Column D
Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Column E
Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Frekuensi Transaksi / Tahun 45 52 48 39 36
Harga Perolehan (ribu) 52 7 20 58 26
Stok (unit) 66 235 15 16 8
15 12.5 10 Column C
7.5
Column F
5 2.5 0 Row 4 Row 9 Row 14 Row 20 Row 26 Row 32 Row 38 Row 44 Row 50 12 10 8 Column D
6 4 2 0 Row 4 Row 9 Row 14 Row 19Row 24 Row 29 Row 34Row 39 Row 44 Row 49
Column E
Column G
Column F
Row 50
Row 49
Column G
SES Forecast Result for 112106 5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Forecast byForecast SES Error 8 2 6 8 4 1 7 3 4 2 7 2 3 3 4 9 5 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 9 8 3 5 2 8 6 6 7 7 5 8 2 4 3 10 3 10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
CFE
-6 -2 0 -4 -7 -1 -5 -4 -6 -1 -6 -5 -5 -4 1 -3 -6 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 1 0 -5 -3 -6 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -6 -4 -5 2 -5 2
-6 -8 -8 -12 -19 -20 -25 -29 -35 -36 -42 -47 -52 -56 -55 -58 -64 -67 -72 -75 -77 -79 -83 -82 -82 -87 -90 -96 -96 -98 -100 -101 -102 -105 -105 -111 -115 -120 -118 -123 -121
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
5 2 5 2 5 6
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 -144 3.32 14.94 118.43 -43.38 Alpha=0 F(0)=8
-3 -6 -3 -6 -3 -2
-124 -130 -133 -139 -142 -144
DES Forecast Result for 112106 MAD
MSE
6 4 2.67 3 3.8 3.33 3.57 3.63 3.89 3.6 3.82 3.92 4 4 3.8 3.75 3.88 3.83 3.89 3.85 3.76 3.68 3.7 3.58 3.44 3.5 3.48 3.57 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.28 3.21 3.21 3.11 3.19 3.22 3.26 3.23 3.28 3.24
MAPE (%)
36 20 13.33 14 21 17.67 18.71 18.38 20.33 18.4 20 20.42 20.77 20.43 19.13 18.5 19.53 18.94 19.26 18.75 18.05 17.41 17.35 16.67 16 16.35 16.07 16.79 16.21 15.8 15.42 14.97 14.55 14.38 13.97 14.58 14.62 14.89 14.62 14.88 14.61
300 166.67 111.11 108.33 226.67 191.27 187.76 176.79 190.48 172.86 184.42 182.94 181.69 175.85 164.87 158.31 166.65 160.72 161.04 155.98 150.14 144.83 142.88 137.39 131.9 133.24 130.52 136.58 131.87 128.58 125.51 122.03 118.77 117.04 113.7 118.87 118.36 119.63 117.08 118.32 115.92
Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -14.47 -15.47 -16.48 -17.48 -18.49 -19.48 -20.47 -21.46 -22.46 -22.88 -23.84 -24.86 -25.85 -26.88 -27.84 -28.82 -29.81 -30.78 -31.75 -32.75 -33.72 -34.75 -35.76 -36.77 -36.52 -37.56 -37.3
R-square
5/8/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
3.24 3.3 3.3 3.36 3.35 3.32
14.48 14.98 14.84 15.31 15.17 14.94
114.59 118.9 117.56 121.62 120.28 118.43
-38.29 -39.37 -40.36 -41.42 -42.42 -43.38
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
recast Result for 112106 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 8 2 6 8 4 1 7 3 4 2 7 2 3 3 4 9 5 2 5 3 5 6 6 4 9 8 3 5 2 8 6 6 7 7 5 8 2 4 3 10 3 10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
CFE
-6 -2 0 -4 -7 -1 -5 -4 -6 -1 -6 -5 -5 -4 1 -3 -6 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 1 0 -5 -3 -6 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -6 -4 -5 2 -5 2
MAD
-6 -8 -8 -12 -19 -20 -25 -29 -35 -36 -42 -47 -52 -56 -55 -58 -64 -67 -72 -75 -77 -79 -83 -82 -82 -87 -90 -96 -96 -98 -100 -101 -102 -105 -105 -111 -115 -120 -118 -123 -121
MSE
6 4 2.67 3 3.8 3.33 3.57 3.63 3.89 3.6 3.82 3.92 4 4 3.8 3.75 3.88 3.83 3.89 3.85 3.76 3.68 3.7 3.58 3.44 3.5 3.48 3.57 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.28 3.21 3.21 3.11 3.19 3.22 3.26 3.23 3.28 3.24
MAPE (%)
36 20 13.33 14 21 17.67 18.71 18.38 20.33 18.4 20 20.42 20.77 20.43 19.13 18.5 19.53 18.94 19.26 18.75 18.05 17.41 17.35 16.67 16 16.35 16.07 16.79 16.21 15.8 15.42 14.97 14.55 14.38 13.97 14.58 14.62 14.89 14.62 14.88 14.61
300 166.67 111.11 108.33 226.67 191.27 187.76 176.79 190.48 172.86 184.42 182.94 181.69 175.85 164.87 158.31 166.65 160.72 161.04 155.98 150.14 144.83 142.88 137.39 131.9 133.24 130.52 136.58 131.87 128.58 125.51 122.03 118.77 117.04 113.7 118.87 118.36 119.63 117.08 118.32 115.92
5 2 5 2 5 6
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 -144 3.32 14.94 118.43 -43.38 Alpha=0 F(0)=8 F'(0)=8
-3 -6 -3 -6 -3 -2
-124 -130 -133 -139 -142 -144
3.24 3.3 3.3 3.36 3.35 3.32
14.48 14.98 14.84 15.31 15.17 14.94
114.59 118.9 117.56 121.62 120.28 118.43
LR (Terbaik) Forecast Result for 112106 Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -14.47 -15.47 -16.48 -17.48 -18.49 -19.48 -20.47 -21.46 -22.46 -22.88 -23.84 -24.86 -25.85 -26.88 -27.84 -28.82 -29.81 -30.78 -31.75 -32.75 -33.72 -34.75 -35.76 -36.77 -36.52 -37.56 -37.3
R-square
5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Forecast by Forecast LR Error 8 4.59 3.41 2 4.61 -2.61 6 4.62 1.38 8 4.64 3.36 4 4.66 -0.66 1 4.68 -3.68 7 4.69 2.31 3 4.71 -1.71 4 4.73 -0.73 2 4.75 -2.75 7 4.76 2.24 2 4.78 -2.78 3 4.8 -1.8 3 4.82 -1.82 4 4.83 -0.83 9 4.85 4.15 5 4.87 0.13 2 4.89 -2.89 5 4.9 9.61E-02 3 4.92 -1.92 5 4.94 6.12E-02 6 4.96 1.04 6 4.97 1.03 4 4.99 -0.99 9 5.01 3.99 8 5.03 2.97 3 5.04 -2.04 5 5.06 -0.06 2 5.08 -3.08 8 5.1 2.9 6 5.11 0.89 6 5.13 0.87 7 5.15 1.85 7 5.17 1.83 5 5.18 -0.18 8 5.2 2.8 2 5.22 -3.22 4 5.24 -1.24 3 5.25 -2.25 10 5.27 4.73 3 5.29 -2.29 10 5.31 4.69
-38.29 -39.37 -40.36 -41.42 -42.42 -43.38
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
5 2 5 2 5 6
5.32 5.34 5.36 5.38 5.39 5.41 5.428 5.446 5.463 5.481 5.498 5.516 5.533 5.551 5.568 5.585 5.603 5.620 9.06E-06 1.97 5.57 57.62 4.60E-06 1.04E-02 Y-intercept=4.5718 Slope=0.0175
-0.32 -3.34 -0.36 -3.38 -0.39 0.59 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 72
CFE 3.41 0.8 2.18 5.54 4.88 1.2 3.51 1.8 1.07 -1.68 0.56 -2.22 -4.02 -5.84 -6.67 -2.53 -2.39 -5.28 -5.19 -7.11 -7.05 -6 -4.98 -5.97 -1.98 1 -1.05 -1.11 -4.19 -1.28 -0.39 0.47 2.33 4.16 3.98 6.78 3.56 2.32 6.73E-02 4.8 2.51 7.2
MAD
MSE 3.41 3.01 2.46 2.69 2.28 2.51 2.48 2.39 2.2 2.26 2.26 2.3 2.26 2.23 2.14 2.26 2.14 2.18 2.07 2.06 1.97 1.92 1.89 1.85 1.93 1.97 1.98 1.91 1.95 1.98 1.94 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.86 1.88 1.92 1.9 1.91 1.98 1.99 2.05
MAPE (%) 11.63 9.21 6.77 7.9 6.41 7.59 7.27 6.72 6.04 6.19 6.08 6.22 5.99 5.8 5.46 6.19 5.83 5.97 5.65 5.56 5.29 5.1 4.92 4.76 5.21 5.35 5.3 5.11 5.26 5.37 5.22 5.08 5.03 4.98 4.84 4.92 5.07 4.98 4.98 5.42 5.41 5.81
42.63 86.49 65.3 59.47 50.87 103.67 93.57 89 81.14 86.76 81.77 86.55 84.5 82.79 78.66 76.63 72.28 76.28 72.36 71.95 68.58 66.25 64.12 62.48 61.75 60.81 61.08 58.94 62.22 61.35 59.85 58.43 57.46 56.54 55.03 54.48 57.35 56.66 57.13 56.88 57.36 57.11
Tracking Signal 1 0.27 0.88 2.06 2.14 0.48 1.41 0.75 0.48 -0.74 0.25 -0.97 -1.78 -2.62 -3.12 -1.12 -1.12 -2.42 -2.51 -3.45 -3.58 -3.12 -2.64 -3.23 -1.02 0.51 -0.53 -0.58 -2.15 -0.65 -0.2 0.25 1.22 2.18 2.14 3.6 1.85 1.22 3.52E-02 2.42 1.26 3.51
R-square
1.80E-02 8.49E-02 0.32 0.18 5.49E-03 3.62E-02 7.87E-03 2.71E-03 5.08E-03 9.33E-04 6.25E-03 1.73E-02 3.26E-02 3.97E-02 5.13E-03 4.71E-03 1.63E-02 1.52E-02 2.55E-02 0.02 1.74E-02 1.24E-02 1.64E-02 4.22E-03 3.43E-03 0 4.16E-03 8.04E-03 4.55E-03 4.64E-03 5.08E-03 6.34E-03 8.67E-03 8.86E-03 1.35E-02 8.49E-03 7.97E-03 7.67E-03 9.93E-03 8.44E-03 1.25E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi P No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot
6.88 3.54 3.18 -0.2 -0.59 9.06E-06
2.01 2.04 2.01 2.04 2 1.97
5.67 5.8 5.67 5.8 5.68 5.57
55.93 58.46 57.32 59.74 58.64 57.62
3.42 1.73 1.59 -9.63E-02 -0.29 4.60E-06
1.25E-02 9.43E-03 9.78E-03 9.21E-03 9.85E-03 1.04E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan Xt Ft 8 4.589 2 4.607 6 4.624 8 4.642 4 4.659 1 4.677 7 4.694 3 4.712 4 4.729 2 4.747 7 4.764 2 4.782 Total MR MR
UCL LCL Daerah A + Daerah A Daerah B + Daerah B -
Ft-Xt -3.411 2.607 -1.376 -3.358 0.659 3.677 -2.306 1.712 0.729 2.747 -2.236 2.782 3.820 10.161 -10.161 6.774 -6.774 3.387 -3.387
MR 6.017 3.983 1.983 4.017 3.017 5.983 4.017 0.983 2.017 4.983 5.017 42.017
UCL 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161 10.161
LCL -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16 -10.16
A+ 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77
A-6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77 -6.77
B+ 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39
B-3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39 -3.39
12.500 10.000 7.500 5.000 2.500 0.000 -2.500 -5.000 -7.500 -10.000 -12.500 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
ow Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Column AM Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Column AT
SES Forecast Result for 261181 5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Forecast by SES 27 41 32 36 38 32 36 31 40 35 37 29 34 34 39 35 35 36 47 25 31 44 34 38 36 34 30 45 41 28 32 35 33 37 38 27 32 33 25 34 34 36 30 35
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Forecast Error
CFE
14 5 9 11 5 9 4 13 8 10 2 7 7 12 8 8 9 20 -2 4 17 7 11 9 7 3 18 14 1 5 8 6 10 11 0 5 6 -2 7 7 9 3 8
MAD
14 19 28 39 44 53 57 70 78 88 90 97 104 116 124 132 141 161 159 163 180 187 198 207 214 217 235 249 250 255 263 269 279 290 290 295 301 299 306 313 322 325 333
14 9.5 9.33 9.75 8.8 8.83 8.14 8.75 8.67 8.8 8.18 8.08 8 8.29 8.27 8.25 8.29 8.94 8.58 8.35 8.76 8.68 8.78 8.79 8.72 8.5 8.85 9.04 8.76 8.63 8.61 8.53 8.58 8.65 8.4 8.31 8.24 8.08 8.05 8.03 8.05 7.93 7.93
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
28 29 35 33
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 350 7.62 77.45 20.83 45.95 Alpha=0 F(0)=27
1 2 8 6
334 336 344 350
7.77 7.64 7.65 7.62
DES Forecast Result for 261181 MSE
MAPE (%)
196 110.5 100.67 105.75 89.6 88.17 77.86 89.25 86.44 87.8 80.18 77.58 75.38 80.29 79.2 78.25 78.41 96.28 91.42 87.65 97.24 95.05 96.17 95.54 93.68 90.42 99.07 102.54 99.03 96.57 95.52 93.66 93.85 94.65 91.94 90.08 88.62 86.39 85.44 84.53 84.44 82.64 82.21
34.15 24.89 24.92 25.93 23.87 24.06 22.46 23.72 23.62 23.96 22.41 22.26 22.13 22.75 22.76 22.76 22.89 23.99 23.14 22.63 23.39 23.27 23.51 23.58 23.46 22.94 23.57 23.95 23.25 22.99 22.99 22.84 22.96 23.14 22.48 22.29 22.18 21.8 21.77 21.74 21.82 21.54 21.57
Tracking Signal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18.53 19.52 20.54 21.54 22.54 23.55 24.54 25.53 26.55 27.56 28.54 29.54 30.54 31.53 32.53 33.54 34.52 35.52 36.51 37.01 38.01 39 40.01 40.99 41.99
R-square
5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
27 41 32 36 38 32 36 31 40 35 37 29 34 34 39 35 35 36 47 25 31 44 34 38 36 34 30 45 41 28 32 35 33 37 38 27 32 33 25 34 34 36 30 35
80.36 78.67 78.35 77.45
21.16 20.85 20.89 20.83
42.97 43.95 44.95 45.95
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
28 29 35 33
ult for 261181 Forecast byForecast DES Error 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
CFE
14 5 9 11 5 9 4 13 8 10 2 7 7 12 8 8 9 20 -2 4 17 7 11 9 7 3 18 14 1 5 8 6 10 11 0 5 6 -2 7 7 9 3 8
MAD
14 19 28 39 44 53 57 70 78 88 90 97 104 116 124 132 141 161 159 163 180 187 198 207 214 217 235 249 250 255 263 269 279 290 290 295 301 299 306 313 322 325 333
MSE
14 9.5 9.33 9.75 8.8 8.83 8.14 8.75 8.67 8.8 8.18 8.08 8 8.29 8.27 8.25 8.29 8.94 8.58 8.35 8.76 8.68 8.78 8.79 8.72 8.5 8.85 9.04 8.76 8.63 8.61 8.53 8.58 8.65 8.4 8.31 8.24 8.08 8.05 8.03 8.05 7.93 7.93
MAPE (%)
196 110.5 100.67 105.75 89.6 88.17 77.86 89.25 86.44 87.8 80.18 77.58 75.38 80.29 79.2 78.25 78.41 96.28 91.42 87.65 97.24 95.05 96.17 95.54 93.68 90.42 99.07 102.54 99.03 96.57 95.52 93.66 93.85 94.65 91.94 90.08 88.62 86.39 85.44 84.53 84.44 82.64 82.21
34.15 24.89 24.92 25.93 23.87 24.06 22.46 23.72 23.62 23.96 22.41 22.26 22.13 22.75 22.76 22.76 22.89 23.99 23.14 22.63 23.39 23.27 23.51 23.58 23.46 22.94 23.57 23.95 23.25 22.99 22.99 22.84 22.96 23.14 22.48 22.29 22.18 21.8 21.77 21.74 21.82 21.54 21.57
Tracking Signal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18.53 19.52 20.54 21.54 22.54 23.55 24.54 25.53 26.55 27.56 28.54 29.54 30.54 31.53 32.53 33.54 34.52 35.52 36.51 37.01 38.01 39 40.01 40.99 41.99
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 350 7.62 77.45 20.83 45.95 Alpha=0 F(0)=27 F'(0)=27
1 2 8 6
334 336 344 350
7.77 7.64 7.65 7.62
80.36 78.67 78.35 77.45
21.16 20.85 20.89 20.83
42.97 43.95 44.95 45.95
LR Forecast Result for 261181 R-square
5/8/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Forecast byForecast CFE LR Error 27 35.93 -8.93 41 35.86 5.14 32 35.79 -3.79 36 35.72 0.28 38 35.65 2.35 32 35.58 -3.58 36 35.51 0.49 31 35.44 -4.44 40 35.37 4.63 35 35.3 -0.3 37 35.23 1.77 29 35.16 -6.16 34 35.09 -1.09 34 35.02 -1.02 39 34.95 4.05 35 34.88 0.12 35 34.82 0.18 36 34.75 1.25 47 34.68 12.32 25 34.61 -9.61 31 34.54 -3.54 44 34.47 9.53 34 34.4 -0.4 38 34.33 3.67 36 34.26 1.74 34 34.19 -0.19 30 34.12 -4.12 45 34.05 10.95 41 33.98 7.02 28 33.91 -5.91 32 33.84 -1.84 35 33.77 1.23 33 33.7 -0.7 37 33.63 3.37 38 33.56 4.44 27 33.49 -6.49 32 33.42 -1.42 33 33.35 -0.35 25 33.28 -8.28 34 33.21 0.79 34 33.14 0.86 36 33.07 2.93 30 33 -3 35 32.93 2.07
-8.93 -3.79 -7.59 -7.31 -4.96 -8.54 -8.06 -12.5 -7.87 -8.18 -6.41 -12.58 -13.67 -14.7 -10.65 -10.54 -10.35 -9.1 3.23 -6.38 -9.91 -0.38 -0.78 2.9 4.64 4.45 0.34 11.29 18.31 12.4 10.57 11.8 11.1 14.47 18.91 12.42 11 10.65 2.38 3.17 4.03 6.96 3.95 6.02
45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
28 29 35 33
32.86 32.79 32.72 32.65 32.58 32.51 32.44 32.37 32.3 32.23 32.16 32.09 32.02 31.95 31.88 31.81
-4.86 1.16 -3.79 -2.63 2.28 -0.35 0.35 -2.67E-05 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 393
-2.67E-05 3.49 21.73 10.47 -7.65E-06 4.13E-02 Y-intercept=36.0018 Slope=-0.0698
MAD
MSE 8.93 7.03 5.95 4.53 4.1 4.01 3.51 3.63 3.74 3.39 3.25 3.49 3.3 3.14 3.2 3.01 2.84 2.75 3.26 3.58 3.57 3.84 3.69 3.69 3.62 3.48 3.51 3.77 3.89 3.95 3.88 3.8 3.71 3.7 3.72 3.8 3.73 3.64 3.76 3.69 3.62 3.6 3.59 3.55
MAPE (%) 79.78 53.09 40.19 30.16 25.23 23.16 19.89 19.87 20.04 18.05 16.69 18.46 17.14 15.99 16.01 15.01 14.13 13.43 20.72 24.3 23.74 26.79 25.63 25.13 24.24 23.31 23.08 26.54 27.32 27.57 26.79 26 25.23 24.82 24.68 25.16 24.54 23.89 25.04 24.43 23.85 23.49 23.15 22.72
Tracking Signal
33.08 -1 22.81 -0.54 19.15 -1.27 14.56 -1.61 12.88 -1.21 12.6 -2.13 10.99 -2.3 11.41 -3.45 11.43 -2.11 10.37 -2.41 9.86 -1.98 10.81 -3.61 10.23 -4.14 9.71 -4.68 9.76 -3.33 9.17 -3.5 8.66 -3.64 8.37 -3.3 9.31 0.99 10.77 -1.78 10.8 -2.77 11.29 -9.87E-02 10.85 -0.21 10.8 0.78 10.56 1.28 10.18 1.28 10.31 9.60E-02 10.81 2.99 11.03 4.71 11.36 3.14 11.18 2.72 10.94 3.1 10.68 2.99 10.63 3.91 10.66 5.09 11.03 3.27 10.85 2.95 10.6 2.93 11.17 0.63 10.95 0.86 10.75 1.11 10.68 1.93 10.67 1.1 10.56 1.7
R-square
7.35E-02 0.19 0.13 0.04 9.78E-02 7.37E-02 0.14 4.24E-02 4.18E-02 2.46E-02 6.70E-02 0.07 7.97E-02 3.93E-02 3.79E-02 3.65E-02 3.04E-02 9.02E-03 0.01 1.73E-02 7.59E-03 8.69E-03 1.03E-02 1.24E-02 1.36E-02 1.32E-02 1.91E-02 2.93E-02 2.04E-02 1.96E-02 2.21E-02 2.28E-02 2.74E-02 3.39E-02 2.63E-02 0.03 2.82E-02 2.44E-02 0.03 2.86E-02 3.14E-02 3.22E-02 3.49E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total MR
3.58 3.59 3.56 3.49
22.74 22.56 22.19 21.73
10.71 10.76 10.67 10.47
0.32 -0.73 -9.80E-02 -7.65E-06
3.50E-02 3.65E-02 3.88E-02 4.13E-02
erifikasi Fungsi Peramalan Xt Ft 27 35.932 41 35.862 32 35.792 36 35.723 38 35.653 32 35.583 36 35.513 31 35.443 40 35.374 35 35.304 37 35.234 29 35.164 Total MR MR
UCL LCL Daerah A + Daerah A Daerah B + Daerah B -
Ft-Xt 8.932 -5.138 3.792 -0.277 -2.347 3.583 -0.487 4.443 -4.626 0.304 -1.766 6.164 6.188 16.461 -16.461 10.974 -10.974 5.487 -5.487
MR 14.070 8.930 4.070 2.070 5.930 4.070 4.930 9.070 4.930 2.070 7.930 68.070
UCL 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461 16.461
LCL -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46 -16.46
A+ 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97 10.97
A-10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97 -10.97
B+ 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
B-5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49 -5.49
20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 -5.000 -10.000 -15.000
-20.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Ro 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Column AL Column AN Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES Forecast Result for 531550 5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast SES Error 34 26 25 26 35 38 19 27 15 26 29 34 30 33 28 26 28 34 26 28 25 39 27 18 36 35 25 24 29 28 24 25 26 35 25 24 35 32 31 24 33 22 25
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
-8 -9 -8 1 4 -15 -7 -19 -8 -5 0 -4 -1 -6 -8 -6 0 -8 -6 -9 5 -7 -16 2 1 -9 -10 -5 -6 -10 -9 -8 1 -9 -10 1 -2 -3 -10 -1 -12 -9
CFE
-8 -17 -25 -24 -20 -35 -42 -61 -69 -74 -74 -78 -79 -85 -93 -99 -99 -107 -113 -122 -117 -124 -140 -138 -137 -146 -156 -161 -167 -177 -186 -194 -193 -202 -212 -211 -213 -216 -226 -227 -239 -248
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
33 25 25 23 28
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 -284 6.68 62.72 27.84 -42.51 Alpha=0 F(0)=34
-1 -9 -9 -11 -6
-249 -258 -267 -278 -284
DES Forecast Result for 531550 MAD
MSE
8 8.5 8.33 6.5 6 7.5 7.43 8.88 8.78 8.4 7.64 7.33 6.85 6.79 6.87 6.81 6.41 6.5 6.47 6.6 6.52 6.55 6.96 6.75 6.52 6.62 6.74 6.68 6.66 6.77 6.84 6.88 6.7 6.76 6.86 6.69 6.57 6.47 6.56 6.43 6.56 6.62
MAPE (%)
64 72.5 69.67 52.5 45.2 75.17 71.43 107.63 102.78 95 86.36 80.5 74.38 71.64 71.13 68.94 64.88 64.83 63.32 64.2 62.33 61.73 70.17 67.42 64.76 65.38 66.67 65.18 64.17 65.37 65.87 65.81 63.85 64.35 65.37 63.58 61.97 60.58 61.59 60.08 62.12 62.57
30.77 33.38 32.51 25.1 22.18 31.64 30.83 42.81 41.47 39.05 35.5 33.65 31.3 30.59 30.6 30.03 28.26 28.4 28.03 28.43 27.69 27.61 30.27 29.24 28.19 28.49 28.98 28.56 28.31 28.76 28.99 29.05 28.25 28.48 28.86 28.14 27.54 27.07 27.45 26.84 27.51 27.72
Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -3.69 -3.33 -4.67 -5.65 -6.87 -7.86 -8.81 -9.69 -10.64 -11.54 -12.53 -13.54 -14.53 -15.44 -16.46 -17.46 -18.48 -17.93 -18.94 -20.13 -20.44 -21.01 -22.07 -23.14 -24.11 -25.09 -26.16 -27.2 -28.22 -28.82 -29.86 -30.92 -31.52 -32.43 -33.37 -34.43 -35.33 -36.43 -37.47
R-square
0.55 0.83
0.99
0.99
0.96 0.86 0.93
5/15/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
6.49 6.55 6.6 6.7 6.68
61.14 61.59 62.02 63.3 62.72
27.14 27.34 27.53 27.98 27.84
-38.38 -39.42 -40.45 -41.52 -42.51
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
cast Result for 531550 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 34 26 25 26 35 38 19 27 15 26 29 34 30 33 28 26 28 34 26 28 25 39 27 18 36 35 25 24 29 28 24 25 26 35 25 24 35 32 31 24 33 22 25
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
-8 -9 -8 1 4 -15 -7 -19 -8 -5 0 -4 -1 -6 -8 -6 0 -8 -6 -9 5 -7 -16 2 1 -9 -10 -5 -6 -10 -9 -8 1 -9 -10 1 -2 -3 -10 -1 -12 -9
CFE
MAD
-8 -17 -25 -24 -20 -35 -42 -61 -69 -74 -74 -78 -79 -85 -93 -99 -99 -107 -113 -122 -117 -124 -140 -138 -137 -146 -156 -161 -167 -177 -186 -194 -193 -202 -212 -211 -213 -216 -226 -227 -239 -248
MSE
8 8.5 8.33 6.5 6 7.5 7.43 8.88 8.78 8.4 7.64 7.33 6.85 6.79 6.87 6.81 6.41 6.5 6.47 6.6 6.52 6.55 6.96 6.75 6.52 6.62 6.74 6.68 6.66 6.77 6.84 6.88 6.7 6.76 6.86 6.69 6.57 6.47 6.56 6.43 6.56 6.62
MAPE (%)
64 72.5 69.67 52.5 45.2 75.17 71.43 107.63 102.78 95 86.36 80.5 74.38 71.64 71.13 68.94 64.88 64.83 63.32 64.2 62.33 61.73 70.17 67.42 64.76 65.38 66.67 65.18 64.17 65.37 65.87 65.81 63.85 64.35 65.37 63.58 61.97 60.58 61.59 60.08 62.12 62.57
30.77 33.38 32.51 25.1 22.18 31.64 30.83 42.81 41.47 39.05 35.5 33.65 31.3 30.59 30.6 30.03 28.26 28.4 28.03 28.43 27.69 27.61 30.27 29.24 28.19 28.49 28.98 28.56 28.31 28.76 28.99 29.05 28.25 28.48 28.86 28.14 27.54 27.07 27.45 26.84 27.51 27.72
33 25 25 23 28
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 -284 6.68 62.72 27.84 -42.51 Alpha=0 F(0)=34 F'(0)=34
-1 -9 -9 -11 -6
-249 -258 -267 -278 -284
6.49 6.55 6.6 6.7 6.68
61.14 61.59 62.02 63.3 62.72
27.14 27.34 27.53 27.98 27.84
LR Forecast Result for 531550 Tracking Signal -1 -2 -3 -3.69 -3.33 -4.67 -5.65 -6.87 -7.86 -8.81 -9.69 -10.64 -11.54 -12.53 -13.54 -14.53 -15.44 -16.46 -17.46 -18.48 -17.93 -18.94 -20.13 -20.44 -21.01 -22.07 -23.14 -24.11 -25.09 -26.16 -27.2 -28.22 -28.82 -29.86 -30.92 -31.52 -32.43 -33.37 -34.43 -35.33 -36.43 -37.47
R-square
0.55 0.83
0.99
0.99
0.96 0.86 0.93
5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast LR Error 34 28.77 5.23 26 28.74 -2.74 25 28.71 -3.71 26 28.68 -2.68 35 28.65 6.35 38 28.62 9.38 19 28.59 -9.59 27 28.56 -1.56 15 28.53 -13.53 26 28.51 -2.51 29 28.48 0.52 34 28.45 5.55 30 28.42 1.58 33 28.39 4.61 28 28.36 -0.36 26 28.33 -2.33 28 28.3 -0.3 34 28.27 5.73 26 28.24 -2.24 28 28.21 -0.21 25 28.19 -3.19 39 28.16 10.84 27 28.13 -1.13 18 28.1 -10.1 36 28.07 7.93 35 28.04 6.96 25 28.01 -3.01 24 27.98 -3.98 29 27.95 1.05 28 27.92 7.67E-02 24 27.89 -3.89 25 27.87 -2.87 26 27.84 -1.84 35 27.81 7.19 25 27.78 -2.78 24 27.75 -3.75 35 27.72 7.28 32 27.69 4.31 31 27.66 3.34 24 27.63 -3.63 33 27.6 5.4 22 27.57 -5.57 25 27.55 -2.55
-38.38 -39.42 -40.45 -41.52 -42.51
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
33 25 25 23 28
27.52 27.49 27.46 27.43 27.4 27.37 27.34 27.31 27.28 27.25 27.23 27.2 27.17 27.14 27.11 27.08 27.05
5.48 -2.49 -2.46 -4.43 0.6 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 308
-5.72E-05 4.14 26.25 15.67 -1.38E-05 6.15E-03 Y-intercept=28.7961 Slope=-0.0291
CFE
MAD 5.23 2.5 -1.21 -3.89 2.46 11.83 2.24 0.68 -12.86 -15.36 -14.84 -9.28 -7.7 -3.09 -3.45 -5.78 -6.08 -0.36 -2.6 -2.81 -6 4.85 3.72 -6.38 1.55 8.51 5.5 1.52 2.57 2.64 -1.25 -4.11 -5.95 1.24 -1.54 -5.28 2 6.31 9.64 6.01 11.41 5.83 3.29
MSE 5.23 3.99 3.89 3.59 4.14 5.01 5.67 5.16 6.09 5.73 5.26 5.28 5 4.97 4.66 4.52 4.27 4.35 4.24 4.04 4 4.31 4.17 4.42 4.56 4.65 4.59 4.57 4.45 4.3 4.29 4.24 4.17 4.26 4.22 4.2 4.29 4.29 4.26 4.25 4.27 4.31 4.26
MAPE (%) 27.38 17.44 16.21 13.95 19.23 30.68 39.44 34.82 51.3 46.8 42.57 41.59 38.59 37.35 34.87 33.03 31.09 31.19 29.81 28.32 27.46 31.55 30.24 33.22 34.41 34.95 33.99 33.34 32.23 31.16 30.64 29.94 29.14 29.8 29.17 28.75 29.41 29.12 28.66 28.27 28.29 28.36 27.85
Tracking Signal
15.39 1 12.96 0.63 13.59 -0.31 12.77 -1.08 13.84 0.59 15.65 2.36 20.62 0.4 18.77 0.13 26.71 -2.11 25 -2.68 22.89 -2.82 22.35 -1.76 21.03 -1.54 20.53 -0.62 19.25 -0.74 18.6 -1.28 17.57 -1.43 17.53 -8.16E-02 17.06 -0.61 16.25 -0.7 16.08 -1.5 16.61 1.13 16.07 0.89 17.74 -1.44 17.91 0.34 17.99 1.83 17.77 1.2 17.73 0.33 17.24 0.58 16.67 0.62 16.66 -0.29 16.5 -0.97 16.21 -1.43 16.34 0.29 16.19 -0.36 16.17 -1.26 16.3 0.47 16.22 1.47 16.08 2.26 16.06 1.42 16.07 2.67 16.29 1.36 16.15 0.77
R-square
9.73E-02 0.01 7.19E-02 1.28E-02 0.15 2.69E-03 3.33E-04 4.11E-02 5.27E-02 0.04 1.48E-02 9.47E-03 1.68E-03 1.98E-03 4.51E-03 4.79E-03 7.47E-04 1.48E-03 1.70E-03 4.11E-03 2.65E-03 2.11E-03 3.35E-03 1.40E-03 4.49E-03 2.75E-03 1.75E-03 2.09E-03 2.29E-03 2.26E-03 2.95E-03 3.73E-03 2.78E-03 3.02E-03 3.91E-03 3.39E-03 4.47E-03 5.94E-03 4.81E-03 7.01E-03 5.08E-03 4.89E-03
8.77 6.29 3.83 -0.6 -5.72E-05
4.29 4.25 4.21 4.22 4.14
27.9 27.42 26.95 26.8 26.25
16.16 16.02 15.88 15.96 15.67
2.04 1.48 0.91 -0.14 -1.38E-05
6.36E-03 5.93E-03 5.79E-03 5.78E-03 6.15E-03
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No Xt Ft 1 34 28.767 2 26 28.738 3 25 28.709 4 26 28.680 5 35 28.651 6 38 28.622 7 19 28.592 8 27 28.563 9 15 28.534 10 26 28.505 11 29 28.476 12 34 28.447 Total MR MR
UCL LCL Daerah Daerah Daerah Daerah
A A B B
+ + -
Ft-Xt -5.233 2.738 3.709 2.680 -6.349 -9.378 9.592 1.563 13.534 2.505 -0.524 -5.55 7.281 19.367 -19.367 12.911 -12.911 6.456 -6.456
MR 7.971 0.971 1.029 9.029 3.029 18.971 8.029 11.971 11.029 3.029 5.029 80.087
UCL 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37
LCL -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37 -19.37
A+ 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.91
A-12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91 -12.91
B+ 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46 6.46
B-6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46 -6.46
20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 -5.000 -10.000 -15.000
-20.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Column AM Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Column AT
SES Forecast Result for 510039 5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast SES Error 12 15 5 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 10 9 8 5 6 10 7 10 8 8 5 7 6 6 5 8 5 13 7 8 7 6 8 5 11 12 8 9 10 11 8 7 5
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
CFE
3 -7 -6 -7 -4 -5 -5 -7 -1 -2 -3 -4 -7 -6 -2 -5 -2 -4 -4 -7 -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -7 1 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -7 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -7
3 -4 -10 -17 -21 -26 -31 -38 -39 -41 -44 -48 -55 -61 -63 -68 -70 -74 -78 -85 -90 -96 -102 -109 -113 -120 -119 -124 -128 -133 -139 -143 -150 -151 -151 -155 -158 -160 -161 -165 -170 -177
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
7 12 15 5 6
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 -192 4.38 23.53 69 -43.81 Alpha=0 F(0)=12
-5 0 3 -7 -6
-182 -182 -179 -186 -192
DES Forecast Result for 510039 MAD
MSE
3 5 5.33 5.75 5.4 5.33 5.29 5.5 5 4.7 4.55 4.5 4.69 4.79 4.6 4.63 4.47 4.44 4.42 4.55 4.57 4.64 4.7 4.79 4.76 4.85 4.7 4.71 4.69 4.7 4.74 4.72 4.79 4.68 4.54 4.53 4.49 4.42 4.33 4.33 4.34 4.4
MAPE (%)
9 29 31.33 35.75 31.8 30.67 29.86 32.25 28.78 26.3 24.73 24 25.92 26.64 25.13 25.13 23.88 23.44 23.05 24.35 24.38 24.91 25.39 26.38 25.96 26.85 25.89 25.86 25.52 25.5 25.84 25.53 26.24 25.5 24.77 24.53 24.11 23.58 23 22.83 22.88 23.5
20 80 86.67 100 90 86.9 84.69 91.61 82.44 76.19 72.3 70.44 75.79 77.52 73.69 73.54 70.39 69.26 68.25 71.84 71.82 73.1 74.27 77.01 75.93 78.39 75.77 75.62 74.73 74.62 75.44 74.65 76.63 74.64 72.51 71.88 70.84 69.5 67.95 67.51 67.6 69.32
Tracking Signal 1 -0.8 -1.88 -2.96 -3.89 -4.88 -5.86 -6.91 -7.8 -8.72 -9.68 -10.67 -11.72 -12.75 -13.7 -14.7 -15.66 -16.65 -17.64 -18.68 -19.69 -20.71 -21.72 -22.75 -23.74 -24.76 -25.3 -26.3 -27.29 -28.3 -29.31 -30.3 -31.33 -32.29 -33.24 -34.23 -35.22 -36.19 -37.15 -38.15 -39.16 -40.18
R-square
0.16 0.55
5/15/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
4.42 4.32 4.29 4.35 4.38
23.53 23 22.69 23.26 23.53
69.37 67.8 66.73 68.33 69
-41.19 -42.15 -41.74 -42.78 -43.81
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
cast Result for 510039 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 12 15 5 6 5 8 7 7 5 11 10 9 8 5 6 10 7 10 8 8 5 7 6 6 5 8 5 13 7 8 7 6 8 5 11 12 8 9 10 11 8 7
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
CFE
3 -7 -6 -7 -4 -5 -5 -7 -1 -2 -3 -4 -7 -6 -2 -5 -2 -4 -4 -7 -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -7 1 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -7 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5
MAD
3 -4 -10 -17 -21 -26 -31 -38 -39 -41 -44 -48 -55 -61 -63 -68 -70 -74 -78 -85 -90 -96 -102 -109 -113 -120 -119 -124 -128 -133 -139 -143 -150 -151 -151 -155 -158 -160 -161 -165 -170
MSE
3 5 5.33 5.75 5.4 5.33 5.29 5.5 5 4.7 4.55 4.5 4.69 4.79 4.6 4.63 4.47 4.44 4.42 4.55 4.57 4.64 4.7 4.79 4.76 4.85 4.7 4.71 4.69 4.7 4.74 4.72 4.79 4.68 4.54 4.53 4.49 4.42 4.33 4.33 4.34
MAPE (%)
9 29 31.33 35.75 31.8 30.67 29.86 32.25 28.78 26.3 24.73 24 25.92 26.64 25.13 25.13 23.88 23.44 23.05 24.35 24.38 24.91 25.39 26.38 25.96 26.85 25.89 25.86 25.52 25.5 25.84 25.53 26.24 25.5 24.77 24.53 24.11 23.58 23 22.83 22.88
20 80 86.67 100 90 86.9 84.69 91.61 82.44 76.19 72.3 70.44 75.79 77.52 73.69 73.54 70.39 69.26 68.25 71.84 71.82 73.1 74.27 77.01 75.93 78.39 75.77 75.62 74.73 74.62 75.44 74.65 76.63 74.64 72.51 71.88 70.84 69.5 67.95 67.51 67.6
5 7 12 15 5 6
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 -192 4.38 23.53 69 -43.81 Alpha=0 F(0)=12 F'(0)=12
-7 -5 0 3 -7 -6
-177 -182 -182 -179 -186 -192
4.4 4.42 4.32 4.29 4.35 4.38
23.5 23.53 23 22.69 23.26 23.53
69.32 69.37 67.8 66.73 68.33 69
LR Forecast Result for 510039 Tracking Signal 1 -0.8 -1.88 -2.96 -3.89 -4.88 -5.86 -6.91 -7.8 -8.72 -9.68 -10.67 -11.72 -12.75 -13.7 -14.7 -15.66 -16.65 -17.64 -18.68 -19.69 -20.71 -21.72 -22.75 -23.74 -24.76 -25.3 -26.3 -27.29 -28.3 -29.31 -30.3 -31.33 -32.29 -33.24 -34.23 -35.22 -36.19 -37.15 -38.15 -39.16
R-square
0.16 0.55
5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Forecast byForecast LR Error 12 7.74 4.26 15 7.75 7.25 5 7.76 -2.76 6 7.78 -1.78 5 7.79 -2.79 8 7.8 0.2 7 7.81 -0.81 7 7.82 -0.82 5 7.83 -2.83 11 7.84 3.16 10 7.85 2.15 9 7.86 1.14 8 7.87 0.13 5 7.88 -2.88 6 7.9 -1.9 10 7.91 2.09 7 7.92 -0.92 10 7.93 2.07 8 7.94 6.03E-02 8 7.95 4.93E-02 5 7.96 -2.96 7 7.97 -0.97 6 7.98 -1.98 6 7.99 -1.99 5 8.01 -3.01 8 8.02 -1.64E-02 5 8.03 -3.03 13 8.04 4.96 7 8.05 -1.05 8 8.06 -6.03E-02 7 8.07 -1.07 6 8.08 -2.08 8 8.09 -9.32E-02 5 8.1 -3.1 11 8.12 2.88 12 8.13 3.87 8 8.14 -0.14 9 8.15 0.85 10 8.16 1.84 11 8.17 2.83 8 8.18 -0.18 7 8.19 -1.19
-40.18 -41.19 -42.15 -41.74 -42.78 -43.81
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
5 7 12 15 5 6
8.2 8.21 8.22 8.24 8.25 8.26 8.27 8.28 8.29 8.3 8.31 8.32 8.33 8.35 8.36 8.37 8.38 8.39
-3.2 -1.21 3.78 6.76 -3.25 -2.26 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 108
7.63E-06 2.1 7.02 27.87 3.64E-06 3.28E-03 Y-intercept=7.7314 Slope=0.0110
CFE 4.26 11.5 8.74 6.96 4.18 4.38 3.57 2.75 -7.58E-02 3.08 5.23 6.37 6.49 3.61 1.71 3.81 2.89 4.96 5.02 5.07 2.11 1.14 -0.85 -2.84 -5.85 -5.86 -8.89 -3.93 -4.98 -5.04 -6.11 -8.19 -8.29 -11.39 -8.51 -4.63 -4.77 -3.92 -2.08 0.75 0.57 -0.62
MAD
MSE 4.26 5.75 4.76 4.01 3.77 3.17 2.83 2.58 2.61 2.66 2.62 2.49 2.31 2.35 2.32 2.31 2.23 2.22 2.1 2 2.05 2 2 2 2.04 1.96 2 2.11 2.07 2 1.97 1.98 1.92 1.95 1.98 2.03 1.98 1.95 1.95 1.97 1.93 1.91
MAPE (%) 18.13 35.32 26.09 20.36 17.84 14.87 12.84 11.32 10.95 10.86 10.29 9.54 8.81 8.77 8.43 8.17 7.74 7.55 7.15 6.8 6.89 6.62 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.25 6.36 7.01 6.81 6.58 6.41 6.34 6.15 6.25 6.31 6.55 6.38 6.23 6.16 6.2 6.05 5.94
Tracking Signal
35.48 1 41.9 2 46.36 1.84 42.17 1.74 44.88 1.11 37.82 1.38 34.07 1.26 31.27 1.07 34.09 -2.91E-02 33.55 1.16 32.45 2 30.8 2.55 28.55 2.81 30.63 1.53 30.7 0.74 30.09 1.65 29.09 1.3 28.62 2.24 27.16 2.39 25.83 2.53 27.42 1.03 26.81 0.57 27.08 -0.42 27.33 -1.42 28.65 -2.87 27.55 -2.99 28.77 -4.45 29.11 -1.87 28.62 -2.41 27.69 -2.52 27.29 -3.1 27.53 -4.15 26.73 -4.32 27.77 -5.83 27.72 -4.3 27.85 -2.28 27.14 -2.41 26.68 -2.01 26.47 -1.07 26.45 0.38 25.86 0.3 25.65 -0.32
R-square
0.48 0.18 4.10E-02 3.74E-02 2.09E-02 1.07E-02 8.05E-05 8.99E-03 2.27E-02 3.07E-02 0.03 7.92E-03 1.84E-03 7.34E-03 4.15E-03 1.07E-02 1.04E-02 1.02E-02 2.13E-03 1.15E-03 1.04E-03 3.16E-03 9.66E-03 9.49E-03 1.90E-02 3.99E-03 5.67E-03 5.76E-03 7.73E-03 1.23E-02 1.24E-02 0.02 1.16E-02 4.55E-03 4.80E-03 4.05E-03 2.94E-03 2.63E-03 2.80E-03 3.00E-03
-3.82 -5.04 -1.26 5.5 2.26 7.63E-06
1.94 1.92 1.96 2.07 2.09 2.1
6.04 5.94 6.12 6.98 7.06 7.02
26.54 26.33 26.45 26.85 27.66 27.87
-1.97 -2.62 -0.64 2.66 1.08 3.64E-06
4.39E-03 5.51E-03 3.43E-03 5.03E-03 3.44E-03 3.28E-03
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No Xt Ft 1 12 7.742 2 15 7.753 3 5 7.764 4 6 7.775 5 5 7.786 6 8 7.797 7 7 7.808 8 7 7.819 9 5 7.830 10 11 7.841 11 10 7.852 12 9 7.863 Total MR
Ft-Xt -4.258 -7.247 2.764 1.775 2.786 -0.203 0.808 0.819 2.830 -3.159 -2.148 -1.137
MR
UCL LCL Daerah Daerah Daerah Daerah
A A B B
+ + -
2.639 7.021 -7.021 4.680 -4.680 2.340 -2.340
MR 2.989 10.011 0.989 1.011 2.989 1.011 0.011 2.011 5.989 1.011 1.011 29.033
UCL 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02
LCL -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02 -7.02
A+ 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68
A-4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68 -4.68
B+ 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34
B-2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34 -2.34
8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0.000 -2.000 -4.000 -6.000
-8.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Ro 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Column AM Column AP Column AQ Column AO Column AR Column AS Column AT Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES Forecast Result for 892140 5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast SES Error 5 4 3 8 8 4 7 10 4 3 5 5 8 9 10 12 11 14 4 2 5 5 2 6 8 10 5 6 9 5 4 7 11 5 4 9 5 11 4 9 7 5 8
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
CFE
-1 -2 3 3 -1 2 5 -1 -2 0 0 3 4 5 7 6 9 -1 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 5 0 1 4 0 -1 2 6 0 -1 4 0 6 -1 4 2 0 3
-1 -3 0 3 2 4 9 8 6 6 6 9 13 18 25 31 40 39 36 36 36 33 34 37 42 42 43 47 47 46 48 54 54 53 57 57 63 62 66 68 68 71
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
6 5 3 4 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 71 2.36 10.19 35.44 30.06 0.29 Alpha=0 F(0)=5
1 0 -2 -1 2
72 72 70 69 71
DES Forecast Result for 892140 MAD
MSE
1 1.5 2 2.25 2 2 2.43 2.25 2.22 2 1.82 1.92 2.08 2.29 2.6 2.81 3.18 3.06 3.05 2.9 2.76 2.77 2.7 2.71 2.8 2.69 2.63 2.68 2.59 2.53 2.52 2.63 2.55 2.5 2.54 2.47 2.57 2.53 2.56 2.55 2.49 2.5
MAPE (%)
1 2.5 4.67 5.75 4.8 4.67 7.57 6.75 6.44 5.8 5.27 5.58 6.38 7.71 10.47 12.06 16.12 15.28 14.95 14.2 13.52 13.32 12.78 12.63 13.12 12.62 12.19 12.32 11.9 11.53 11.29 12.06 11.7 11.38 11.51 11.19 11.86 11.58 11.69 11.5 11.22 11.17
25 45.83 43.06 41.67 38.33 36.71 38.61 36.9 40.21 36.19 32.9 33.28 34.14 35.27 36.81 37.92 39.47 38.67 44.53 42.3 40.29 45.27 44.03 43.76 44.01 42.31 41.36 41.47 40.04 39.54 39.19 39.67 38.47 38.07 38.25 37.19 37.66 37.33 37.51 37.29 36.38 36.4
Tracking Signal -1 -2 0 1.33 1 2 3.71 3.56 2.7 3 3.3 4.7 6.26 7.88 9.62 11.02 12.59 12.76 11.79 12.41 13.03 11.9 12.61 13.66 15 15.6 16.35 17.55 18.17 18.16 19.08 20.57 21.21 21.2 22.42 23.06 24.54 24.54 25.74 26.67 27.33 28.4
R-square
0 0.11 3.45E-02 0.11 0.28 0.17 7.41E-02 6.62E-02 5.98E-02 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.44 0.32 0.3 0.28 0.2 0.21 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.3 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.31 0.3 0.27 0.3 0.29 0.32 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.34
5/15/2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
2.47 2.41 2.4 2.37 2.36
10.93 10.68 10.53 10.33 10.19
35.94 35.13 35.83 35.59 35.44
29.21 29.89 29.17 29.12 30.06
0.35 0.33 0.3 0.28 0.29
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
ecast Result for 892140 Actual Data
Forecast byForecast DES Error 5 4 3 8 8 4 7 10 4 3 5 5 8 9 10 12 11 14 4 2 5 5 2 6 8 10 5 6 9 5 4 7 11 5 4 9 5 11 4 9 7 5 8
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
CFE
-1 -2 3 3 -1 2 5 -1 -2 0 0 3 4 5 7 6 9 -1 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 5 0 1 4 0 -1 2 6 0 -1 4 0 6 -1 4 2 0 3
MAD
-1 -3 0 3 2 4 9 8 6 6 6 9 13 18 25 31 40 39 36 36 36 33 34 37 42 42 43 47 47 46 48 54 54 53 57 57 63 62 66 68 68 71
MSE
1 1.5 2 2.25 2 2 2.43 2.25 2.22 2 1.82 1.92 2.08 2.29 2.6 2.81 3.18 3.06 3.05 2.9 2.76 2.77 2.7 2.71 2.8 2.69 2.63 2.68 2.59 2.53 2.52 2.63 2.55 2.5 2.54 2.47 2.57 2.53 2.56 2.55 2.49 2.5
MAPE (%)
1 2.5 4.67 5.75 4.8 4.67 7.57 6.75 6.44 5.8 5.27 5.58 6.38 7.71 10.47 12.06 16.12 15.28 14.95 14.2 13.52 13.32 12.78 12.63 13.12 12.62 12.19 12.32 11.9 11.53 11.29 12.06 11.7 11.38 11.51 11.19 11.86 11.58 11.69 11.5 11.22 11.17
25 45.83 43.06 41.67 38.33 36.71 38.61 36.9 40.21 36.19 32.9 33.28 34.14 35.27 36.81 37.92 39.47 38.67 44.53 42.3 40.29 45.27 44.03 43.76 44.01 42.31 41.36 41.47 40.04 39.54 39.19 39.67 38.47 38.07 38.25 37.19 37.66 37.33 37.51 37.29 36.38 36.4
6 5 3 4 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 71 2.36 10.19 35.44 30.06 0.29 Alpha=0 F(0)=5 F'(0)=5
1 0 -2 -1 2
72 72 70 69 71
2.47 2.41 2.4 2.37 2.36
10.93 10.68 10.53 10.33 10.19
35.94 35.13 35.83 35.59 35.44
LR Forecast Result for 892140 Tracking Signal -1 -2 0 1.33 1 2 3.71 3.56 2.7 3 3.3 4.7 6.26 7.88 9.62 11.02 12.59 12.76 11.79 12.41 13.03 11.9 12.61 13.66 15 15.6 16.35 17.55 18.17 18.16 19.08 20.57 21.21 21.2 22.42 23.06 24.54 24.54 25.74 26.67 27.33 28.4
R-square
0 0.11 3.45E-02 0.11 0.28 0.17 7.41E-02 6.62E-02 5.98E-02 0.11 0.19 0.27 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.44 0.32 0.3 0.28 0.2 0.21 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.3 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.31 0.3 0.27 0.3 0.29 0.32 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.34
5/15/2009 Actual Month Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
Forecast byForecast LR Error 5 6.55 -1.55 4 6.55 -2.55 3 6.55 -3.55 8 6.54 1.46 8 6.54 1.46 4 6.54 -2.54 7 6.54 0.46 10 6.53 3.47 4 6.53 -2.53 3 6.53 -3.53 5 6.52 -1.52 5 6.52 -1.52 8 6.52 1.48 9 6.51 2.49 10 6.51 3.49 12 6.51 5.49 11 6.5 4.5 14 6.5 7.5 4 6.5 -2.5 2 6.49 -4.49 5 6.49 -1.49 5 6.49 -1.49 2 6.48 -4.48 6 6.48 -0.48 8 6.48 1.52 10 6.47 3.53 5 6.47 -1.47 6 6.47 -0.47 9 6.46 2.54 5 6.46 -1.46 4 6.46 -2.46 7 6.46 0.54 11 6.45 4.55 5 6.45 -1.45 4 6.45 -2.45 9 6.44 2.56 5 6.44 -1.44 11 6.44 4.56 4 6.43 -2.43 9 6.43 2.57 7 6.43 0.57 5 6.42 -1.42 8 6.42 1.58
29.21 29.89 29.17 29.12 30.06
0.35 0.33 0.3 0.28 0.29
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 CFE MAD MSE MAPE Trk.Signal R-square
6 5 3 4 7
6.42 6.41 6.41 6.41 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.39 6.39 6.39 6.38 6.38 6.38 6.38 6.37 6.37 6.37
-0.42 -1.41 -3.41 -2.41 0.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 84
1.14E-05 2.37 7.79 46 4.83E-06 2.53E-04 Y-intercept=6.5576 Slope=-3.20E-3
CFE
MAD -1.55 -4.11 -7.65 -6.2 -4.74 -7.28 -6.81 -3.35 -5.87 -9.4 -10.92 -12.44 -10.96 -8.47 -4.98 0.51 5.01 12.51 10.01 5.52 4.03 2.54 -1.94 -2.42 -0.9 2.63 1.15 0.69 3.22 1.76 -0.7 -0.15 4.39 2.95 0.5 3.06 1.62 6.18 3.75 6.32 6.89 5.47 7.05
MSE 1.55 2.05 2.55 2.28 2.11 2.18 1.94 2.13 2.17 2.31 2.24 2.18 2.12 2.15 2.24 2.44 2.56 2.84 2.82 2.9 2.84 2.78 2.85 2.75 2.7 2.73 2.69 2.61 2.6 2.57 2.56 2.5 2.56 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.5 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.5 2.48 2.46
MAPE (%) 2.42 4.46 7.17 5.91 5.15 5.37 4.63 5.56 5.65 6.33 5.96 5.66 5.39 5.45 5.9 7.42 8.17 10.84 10.6 11.08 10.66 10.27 10.7 10.26 9.95 10.04 9.75 9.41 9.31 9.07 8.97 8.7 9.06 8.86 8.77 8.71 8.53 8.86 8.78 8.73 8.52 8.37 8.23
Tracking Signal
31.09 -1 47.43 -2 71.05 -3 57.83 -2.72 49.91 -2.24 52.17 -3.33 45.67 -3.51 44.29 -1.57 46.4 -2.7 53.51 -4.07 51.41 -4.88 49.66 -5.71 47.27 -5.16 45.86 -3.94 45.13 -2.22 45.17 0.21 44.92 1.95 45.4 4.41 46.3 3.55 55.22 1.9 54.01 1.42 52.9 0.92 60.35 -0.68 58.17 -0.88 56.6 -0.33 55.78 0.96 54.81 0.43 53.13 0.26 52.27 1.24 51.5 0.69 51.82 -0.27 50.45 -6.12E-02 50.17 1.72 49.55 1.16 49.88 0.2 49.28 1.21 48.73 0.65 48.54 2.42 48.85 1.47 48.34 2.48 47.37 2.76 46.92 2.21 46.28 2.87
R-square
0.69 0.21 0.38 0.26 3.26E-02 8.18E-02 0.16 0.2 0.23 0.15 7.23E-02 1.92E-02 1.69E-04 0.01 4.70E-02 2.71E-02 6.98E-03 3.51E-03 1.35E-03 7.09E-04 1.04E-03 1.84E-04 1.08E-03 2.52E-04 1.35E-04 1.41E-03 4.66E-04 1.48E-04 1.03E-04 2.07E-03 9.62E-04 1.43E-04 9.58E-04 3.62E-04 3.15E-03 1.20E-03 3.04E-03 3.51E-03 2.22E-03 3.48E-03
6.63 5.22 1.81 -0.6 1.14E-05
2.41 2.39 2.41 2.41 2.37
8.05 7.91 7.99 7.95 7.79
45.39 45.01 46.5 46.79 46
2.75 2.19 0.75 -0.25 4.83E-06
3.05E-03 1.93E-03 4.20E-04 2.58E-04 2.53E-04
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan No Xt Ft 1 5 6.554 2 4 6.551 3 3 6.548 4 8 6.545 5 8 6.542 6 4 6.538 7 7 6.535 8 10 6.532 9 4 6.529 10 3 6.526 11 5 6.522 12 5 6.519 Total MR
Ft-Xt 1.554 2.551 3.548 -1.455 -1.458 2.538 -0.465 -3.468 2.529 3.526 1.522 1.519
MR
UCL LCL Daerah Daerah Daerah Daerah
A A B B
+ + -
2.364 6.288 -6.288 4.192 -4.192 2.096 -2.096
MR 0.997 0.997 5.003 0.003 3.997 3.003 3.003 5.997 0.997 2.003 0.003 26.003
UCL 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29
LCL -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29 -6.29
A+ 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.19
A-4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19 -4.19
B+ 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
B-2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0.000 -2.000 -4.000 -6.000 -8.000 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
w Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Column AM Column AO Column AP Column AQ Column AR Column AS Column AT
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $53,131,974.69 $53,012,814.69 $53,421,894.69 $53,434,374.69 $52,944,774.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Biaya Persediaan $272,703,873.47 $687,864,446.94 $575,567,852.25 $366,013,548.17 $302,009,773.47
Harga Barang/Unit $52,000.00 $7,000.00 $20,000.00 $58,000.00 $26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $300,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 7 17 15 9 8 Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42 Safety Stock 1 1 1 1 1
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 11 24 21 12 11 Stock 66 235 15 16 8 Rata-rata Persediaan 4 9 8 5 4 $10,288,850.00 $1,714,808.33
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $3,300,000.00 $7,200,000.00 $6,300,000.00 $3,600,000.00 $3,300,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $265,659,873.47 $530,128,146.94 $480,797,052.25 $320,606,248.17 $264,723,873.47
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
$161,774.37
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00 63.6
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun 54,929,094.69 54,333,294.69 56,378,694.69 56,441,094.69 53,993,094.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $281,689,473.47 $701,069,246.94 $602,179,052.25 $384,053,868.17 $307,251,373.47
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
2,500,000.00 48,543,750.00 93,950,839.00 5% 1,638,944.69 12% $300,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 7 17 15 9 8
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 11 24 21 12 11
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 1 1 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 4 9 8 5 4
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $3,300,000.00 $7,200,000.00 $6,300,000.00 $3,600,000.00 $3,300,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $274,645,473.47 $543,332,946.94 $507,408,252.25 $338,646,568.17 $269,965,473.47
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $56,726,214.69 $55,653,774.69 $59,335,494.69 $59,447,814.69 $55,041,414.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $290,675,073.47 $714,274,046.94 $628,790,252.25 $402,094,188.17 $312,492,973.47
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $300,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 7 17 15 9 8
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 11 24 21 12 11
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 1 1 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 4 9 8 5 4
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $3,300,000.00 $7,200,000.00 $6,300,000.00 $3,600,000.00 $3,300,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $283,631,073.47 $556,537,746.94 $534,019,452.25 $356,686,888.17 $275,207,073.47
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $54,929,094.69 $54,333,294.69 $56,378,694.69 $56,441,094.69 $53,993,094.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $505,605,852.25 $1,253,702,193.89 $1,118,287,304.50 $671,659,341.64 $581,416,846.94
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $1,500,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 16 36 32 19 17
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 5 11 10 6 5
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 2 2 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 8 18 16 10 9
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $7,500,000.00 $16,500,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $9,000,000.00 $7,500,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $494,361,852.25 $1,086,665,893.89 $1,014,816,504.50 $620,852,041.64 $539,930,946.94
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
14
Hasil Peramalan Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Total Demand 72 393 308 108 84 Biaya Perawatan Gudang Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang Nilai Gudang Sisa Depresiasi Peningkatan Ongkos Pemesanan (Pengadaan)/transaksi Biaya backorder
15
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun $56,726,214.69 $55,653,774.69 $59,335,494.69 $59,447,814.69 $55,041,414.69
16
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Lead time 3 1 3 2 2
17
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140
Reorder Point (B) 18 33 77 18 14
18
Produk 112106 261181 531550 510039 892140 Rusdi
Total Biaya Persediaan $521,779,932.25 $1,280,111,793.89 $1,171,509,704.50 $704,733,261.64 $591,900,046.94
95
Josep Jumlah
126 221
Harga Barang/Unit 52,000.00 7,000.00 20,000.00 58,000.00 26,000.00
Biaya Pembelian/Tahun $3,744,000.00 $2,751,000.00 $6,160,000.00 $6,264,000.00 $2,184,000.00
$2,500,000.00 $48,543,750.00 $93,950,839.00 5% $1,638,944.69 12% $1,500,000.00 $935,350.00 Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 16 36 32 19 17
m (Frekuensi Pemesanan) 5 11 10 6 5
Permintaan/ lead time 24 393 103 54 42
Stock 66 235 15 16 8
Safety Stock 1 2 2 1 1
Rata-rata Persediaan 8 18 16 10 9
5
9 5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = Frekuensi Pemesanan = Ukuran Pemesanan = Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = Biaya Simpan/tahun = Reorder point =
demand * harga pembelian frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi demand * ukuran pemesanan √ (2CR)/H biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun $7,500,000.00 $16,500,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $9,000,000.00 $7,500,000.00 Kekurangan Persediaan 0 158 88 38 34 Biaya Simpan/ tahun $510,535,932.25 $1,113,075,493.89 $1,068,038,904.50 $653,925,961.64 $550,414,146.94
Biaya Kekurangan $$147,785,300.00 $82,310,800.00 $35,543,300.00 $31,801,900.00
engadaan/transaksi
aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
Bulan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Σ
Data Pemakaian Tahun 2008 dan 2009 Kode 112106 261181 531550 6 34 20 6 34 22 4 35 22 6 32 29 4 35 19 7 31 17 4 33 38 5 31 26 3 32 22 2 25 25 7 38 26 7 39 18 61 399 284
Data Penyimpangan Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Rata-rata
112106 0.000% 0.000% 50.000% 0.000% 50.000% 14.286% 50.000% 20.000% 100.000% 200.000% 14.286% 14.286% 42.738%
Perhitungan EOQ Kode Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) 112106 7 261181 17 531550 15 510039 9 892140 8 Analisis
Penyimpangan 261181 531550 2.941% 40.000% 2.941% 27.273% 5.714% 27.273% 3.125% 3.448% 5.714% 47.368% 6.452% 64.706% 0.000% 26.316% 6.452% 7.692% 3.125% 27.273% 28.000% 12.000% 15.789% 7.692% 17.949% 55.556% 8.184% 28.883%
QR* 7 17 14 8 8
1.Hasil Forecaseting=Tidak Valid 2.Q* dan QR*=Valid Penilaian Tugas 1.Lengkap 2.Informatif (diawali oleh tabel/data) laporan dalam bentuk PDF 1.Contreng Tidak bisa di print 2.Contreng Tidak diedit
Kenapa??
dan 2009 510039 7 7 11 7 12 9 6 6 7 7 8 5 92
892140 9 9 3 7 11 7 5 3 13 8 7 9 91
Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Σ % Validasi Validitas
ngan 510039 28.571% 28.571% 18.182% 28.571% 25.000% 0.000% 50.000% 50.000% 28.571% 28.571% 12.500% 80.000% 31.545%
892140 22.222% 22.222% 133.333% 0.000% 36.364% 0.000% 40.000% 133.333% 46.154% 12.500% 0.000% 22.222% 39.029%
Penyimpangan EOQ dan validasi Kode Penyimpangan Validasi 112106 0.000% Valid 261181 0.000% Valid 531550 6.667% Valid 510039 11.111% Valid 892140 0.000% Valid
Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112106 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 72
Hasil Peramalan Kode 261181 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 393
20% Validasi 112106 Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid
261181 Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid
Hasil Peramalan Kode 531550 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 336
Validasi 531550 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid Valid
510039 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 108
892140 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 84
510039 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid
892140 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Valid Valid Valid
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