Transitions

Transitions Non-Democratic

Democratic

Samuel Huntington: 1st Wave = 1828-1926: western countries consolidated democratic regimes 2nd Wave = 1943-1962: several “third world” countries moved toward democracy. 3rd Wave =1974-present: democratization of Portugal, then Eastern Bloc countries, and now some countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Middle East.

Transition: Authoritarianism  Establishment of democratic institutions

Consolidation: When democratic processes actually take root and become part of the political culture. EX: the peaceful transfer of power between the first elected executive and his/her successor after elections.

Consolidation is the most critical period of democratization.

Example of issues that inhibit consolidation: Venezuela: Corruption Bonapartism:

Strong “man” who will “save” the country. Danger of rejecting respect for Executive Office and turning into Personalistic Regime (often a sign of dictatorship).

President Hugo Chavez (1998-present)

Guatemala: Bonapartism: Promise to establish “order” in the face of rising crime/insurgency can lead to “justified” violence. President Alfonso Portillo (2000-2004) Of the party (Guatemalan Republican Front) headed by Rios Montt, the former dictator responsible for Guatemala’s bloodiest period, who served as the president of the National Assembly under Portillo.

Patron-Clientelism:

It’s not what you know, it’s who you know

EX: Nicaragua Working on a political campaign, not because of ideology, but for a good job

Political Culture matters to consolidation. Becomes a tricky issue if the country is divided by ethnicity and/or class EX: India Muslim separatists and upper caste protests led to state of emergency rule (absolute power) by Prime Minister Hindu Nationalists Can India remain a single democratic federation?

Is democracy a western export? How to synthesize foreign and indigenous elements into a new political order? EX: Japan after WWII and U.S. occupation But: dominated by one party, culture demands respect for authority and eschews individualism (a building block of Western democracy) Must all democracies look like Western democracy?

Africa: In the 1990’s democratic elections held in more than 20 countries Few led to functioning multi-party systems Many threatened by extra-judicial violence How to convince contenders for power to accept loss without resorting to violence?

EX: Zambia: Autocratic leader for 27 years lost a free multiparty election and relinquished power in 1991 But, new ruling party harassed opposition parties to keep them from running in 1996 election After 2001 election, 3 parties went to court to challenge results

(1997Mwanawasa, Chiluba though of the

Lost the case, but new president, Mwanawasa, began anti-corruption campaign Led to prosecution of President Chiluba 2001) even same party

EX: Ghana

Former Dictator/President: Jerry Rawlings

Kufor, the Gentle Giant

"No amount of lip-service to democratic good governance as prescribed by our self-appointed Western mentors and executed by gentlemen in three-piece suits, can satisfy the dwindling hopes of the disadvantaged and suffering people. The only way to engage their trust and confidence is to be honest, open and transparent". --Rawlings,2005

The Third Wave in Africa: Not like in Eastern Europe Instead = a series of democratic stirrings; a few transitions, but very few consolidations.

When and if democracy comes to stay in Africa, it will not likely be Western-style. EX: Ethiopia held multiparty elections in but the new president insisted that parties can represent ethnic groups. (Ethiopia now on the of being a “failed” state).

1995, only verge

EX: Kenya, 1992: President won a U.S. style multiparty election, but then limited freedom of speech, association, and political parties because he claimed they fostered tribalism

Single-party governments = common in Africa

Democratic Institutions do not a democracy make

Post-election violence in Kenya, 2007

Odinga and Kibaki agree to power sharing deal

Elections

Violence

Power sharing deals between opposing sides (Incumbent and the Challenger)

Single party states: in transition to democracy or simply authoritarian?

Lopez-Obrador of the PRD party lost (?) election by less than 1% of vote.

Massive protests against alleged fraud

How to reconcile history, political culture, and democratic institutions?

Elections in Bhutan, March, 2008 Voter Turnout at 80% Why wait for a revolution?

"We do think that plurality of viewpoints, and giving the voters a genuine choice of alternative ideologies, is important in democracies….And this is one of the things we will highlight to the Bhutanese authorities, something they might want to work on in the future." -- EU observer Holly Ruthrauff.