The Wall Street Journal Features Dartmouth College Professor Michael Herron On Al Franken, 11/26/08

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Franken Likely to Pick Up Votes Where No Vote Was Detected - WSJ.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122766278026358823.html

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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

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NOVEMBER 26, 2008

Franken Likely to Pick Up Votes Where No Vote Was Detected Article

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By JUNE KRONHOLZ

MINNEAPOLIS -- The Democrats' best shot of winning a 59th seat in the U.S. Senate may depend on Minnesota ballots that don't seem to have been cast for either major party's candidate. Most of these 35,000 ballots were probably cast by voters who abstained because they didn't like either comedian Al Franken, a Democrat, or incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, political experts said. But vote-counting machines also may not have read valid markings on a few of the 2.9 million ballots cast on Election Day. Where that is the case, some political experts said, the hand recount now under way is likely to favor Mr. Franken.

Questionable Ballots?

A win by Mr. Franken would leave the Democrats one seat short of the 60 they would need to override Republican opposition to their legislative agenda. A runoff on Tuesday will decide the winner of Georgia's Senate seat, the final outstanding race from the Nov. 4 election. The Minnesota secretary of state's Web site reported Tuesday night that with 80% of the ballots recounted, Sen. Coleman had about a 2,500-vote lead over Mr. Franken. That lead has shrunk by about 15,000 votes since Monday. Sen. Coleman was about 200 votes ahead after ballots initially were machine

counted after the election. Mr. Franken is likely to pick up more votes in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Some rural counties, where Sen. Coleman is favored, aren't scheduled to begin their recounts until just before the Dec. 5 deadline. Each candidate so far has challenged about 1,800 votes that elections judges have awarded to the other side. That raises the possibility of a prolonged battle that could move to state court and draw the U.S. Senate into helping decide the outcome of a race for the first time since 1974.

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Minnesota uses optical scanners to read most of its ballots, and the chances that the scanners misread many votes are fairly slim, elections experts said. But the election could turn on the ballots where scanners didn't detect any vote. Minnesota voters, like those in many other states, fill in a bubble next to their candidate's name. Typically, the scanner doesn't pick up the preference on a few ballots because the bubble isn't fully filled in or the marking is too light.

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Dartmouth College political scientist Michael Herron, who studied the Minnesota returns, said such "residual" votes were more common in the state's Democratic precincts and those with lots of African-American and elderly voters.

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In the hand recount, election workers eyeball each ballot for markings that indicate a voter's

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12/19/2008 10:36 AM

Franken Likely to Pick Up Votes Where No Vote Was Detected - WSJ.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122766278026358823.html

intent. Dr. Herron said Mr. Franken's vote pickup suggests that the trend is in his favor, but with only one-quarter of the ballots left to count, "it's not clear yet that there are enough" votes to overcome Sen. Coleman's lead. The contested ballots -- many of which are likely to be residual votes -- go next to the state's five-person canvassing board, which will begin its review of the ballots on Dec. 19. Before that, the board will hear a Franken challenge to the state's longtime practice of rejecting absentee ballots that were mailed in without required signatures or with other errors. The state hasn't tabulated how many of those ballots there are. A state judge ruled Nov. 19 in a suit brought by Mr. Franken that the candidates are entitled to the names of those rejected voters. It is up to the canvassing board to decide whether to count the ballots, which also could be decisive if there are enough of them. The canvassing board must certify either Sen. Coleman or Mr. Franken as the winner before one of them can take the Senate seat. Certification could be delayed past the opening of Congress in January if the loser challenges the recount, the decision on the absentee ballots or another part of the process in state court. In that case, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty could fill the seat with a temporary appointee, said Jim Gelbmann, the deputy secretary of state. The Senate also could fill the seat with its own choice, but that is unlikely because of the political uproar it could cause.

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After the 1974 election, when two votes separated candidates for a New Hampshire seat, the full Senate spent six weeks haggling over 35 disputed ballots before the candidates agreed between themselves to a revote. The chances of such an amicable settlement seem slim in Minnesota, where the candidates have turned out hundreds of lawyers and volunteers to monitor the recount. In perhaps the largest hand recount ever, two election officials count the ballots into piles of 25, then hand them to another pair of officials to count again as campaign workers count along. Write to June Kronholz at [email protected] MORE IN POLITICS

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12/19/2008 10:36 AM

Franken Likely to Pick Up Votes Where No Vote Was Detected - WSJ.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122766278026358823.html

Related News From the Web Minn. recount puts Franken two votes behind incumbent The Boston Globe DEC 19. 2008

boston.com

Coleman's lead down to 2 votes in Minn. canvass

DEC 19. 2008

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Holidays, Court Ruling Will Further Extend Minn. Senate Recount DEC 19. 2008 washingtonpost.com

In Minnesota Recount, Scribbles, Mice and Other Ballot Puzzles - NYTimes.com DEC 17. 2008

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