The Tipping Point Economics of Data-Driven Wireless Frank J. Bernhard Managing Principal, Telecommunications Practice OMNI Consulting Group Thursday, November 5, 2009 Austin, TX | Texas Wireless Summit 2009
A New World Agenda for Mobility Evolving trends and service propagation mean new themes become clear in how subscribers choose to define their consumer relationship • Voice ARPU in decline • Applications drive context and purpose • Interoperability between information networks and handsets place pressure on service delivery • Utility of mobile networks are
Demand Drivers As network infrastructure and technology innovation matures, so do the end users • Sophisticated and complex preferences • Adaptive and scalar behavior • Connectivity to enterprise networks • IP context and application awareness • SMS and MMS substitution effect
Operator Economics Rising Hyper competition gives way to demand-side pressures of service quality and innovation • • • • •
Mobile backhaul costs Data speed and experience Saturation of bandwidth Security and privacy Synchronization and timing
Operator Economics Rising Case in point: Verizon Wireless
Lessons in 3G
Data networks drive the future —avoid the costly mistakes of AMP, 1G, and 2G voice • • • • •
Quality has economic order Visual networks erupt Handset subsidy drag Loyalty in decline Partnerships steer choice
4G and the Future True Seamless Interoperability
Source: Cisco Systems, January 2009
The Irrational Consumer Mobile broadband data impart new directions in computing— and a changing subset of buyers • Hybrid device platforms • Consolidation of service providers • Differentiation by innovation • Collaboration between operators and application developers
• Mobility and Factors Driving 2009)
Research Perspective
the Broadband Economy (Released April
• Macroeconomic Forces at Work • Data and Voice Convergence • New Mobility Applications Surge • Competing Network Platforms
• Service Revenue Forecast • North America • Europe • Asia
• Econometric Models and Highlights
• Multidimensional Subscriber Profiles • Service Provider Scales • Voice, Data, and Mobile Content Strategy
• Technology Roadmap
• Outside Plant and Infrastructure • Rural and Urban Density Adoption Curves
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Frank J. Bernhard OMNI Consulting Group T: +1-(530) 750-5199 ext. 22 E:
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Thursday, November 5, 2009 Austin, TX | Texas Wireless Summit 2009