The Paradigm Shift In Southern Africa

Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies)

THE UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

A Paradigm Shift: Security Transformation in PostCold War Southern Africa

19th March 2008

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) Abstract The essay is a brief attempt to analyze how security has changed in the Southern Africa region since the demise of the Cold War. The states of particular interest within the region include South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Angola. I argue that the end of the Cold War in the region did not translate to a peaceful and stable region, and neither did the states in the region disintegrate as some scholars had foreseen. I make a case that the end of the Cold War in the region had both positive and negative contribution towards the regional security. What is certain in the region is that there was indeed a paradigm shift in the nature of the regional approach to security issues as well as the perception of those issues.

To support my argument, I illustrate some of the underpinning forces of this radical shift. Key among these forces of change includes, the change from the state to the individual as the focal point of security and a shift from bilateral security arrangements to collective security approaches. I also argue that there was a shift from state wars to intra-state wars. The new role assumed by military personnel, new security Institutions and the complex nature of conflict that emerged, as well as the role of accumulated weapons in the region after the cold war, are other post-Cold War factors that I contend as having

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) contributed to the change of security nature in Southern Africa region.

Introduction In the great global chess game of cold war, African countries were used as pawns. Opposing factions fighting for power in these countries exploited the patronage and protection of superpowers bent on maintaining a particular global balance of power and influence. As a consequence of these competing local and international political powers, the superpowers involvement in Africa became manifested in the form of protracted proxy wars.

The ‘need’ for the superpowers ideological influence in Africa was definitely not one motivated by strategic or economic reasons; neither was her geopolitical setting of that great interest. Africa, it can be argued, had nothing of particular interest to offer to the two superpowers, this is clearly evident by their haste retreat soon after the demise of the cold war. It was only after the Cold War threatened to become a total war in their strategic locations, that the superpowers

quickly

diverted

their

attention

and

systemic

competition from the more dangerous to less dangerous theatres of African states. (Ayoob 1991)

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) The principle instruments of the proxy conflict in Africa, as was generally the case, were diplomacy, economic assistance, ideology, arms transfers and various forms of direct and indirect intervention. But economic and ideological dimensions of the Cold War were only a façade; it was security and the perceptions of security that was the underpinning element of the Cold War in Africa. (Macfarlane 2002)

Economic and military interventions of the superpowers into the domestic affairs of African states through different political factions had a debilitating effect on these emerging and ‘unborn’ nationstates. But it was the arms transfer race between the superpowers that had the greatest devastating effect, increasing the incidence of conflict through the availability of the instruments of conflict.

“The Cold War was hardly a period of stability in the Third World.” (Acharya 2002, p.79) Acharya assertion is perhaps more truer in the Southern Africa region than any other part of the Third World. Baynham points out that “this region was a key arena of superpower competition and conflict.”(Baynham 1992)

During the cold war, and perhaps even today, no other area in Africa was regional geopolitics intricately intertwined like in Southern Africa. And although the superpowers involvement in the geopolitical supremacy of the region can not be underestimated, the involvement

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) of the Southern Africa states in each others territorial affairs and the ensuing destabilizing effect was overwhelming to say the least.

The USSR together with her allies directed their economic and military assistance to the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa and the South West Africa Peoples Organisation (SWAPO) in Namibia. While on the other side of the battle-lines the United States was backing the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) and the South African Defence Force (SADF) The influx of east block military advisers, soldiers and a supply of arms to the region were indeed staggering. Simon Baynham argues that the supply of Soviet arms to Angola and Mozambique were only exceeded in Africa by those to Ethiopia; by mid-1986, Pretoria's assistance to UNITA alone reportedly totalled over US$1 billion. (Baynham 1992)

But not everyone believed that the Cold War had a negative effect on the region, or even on the African continent as a whole. Helman and Ratner argue that the Cold War actually constrained conflict and enhanced stability in the third World through superpower diplomacy.

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) (Helman and Ratner 1992) Kenneth Waltz is of the same opinion; he argues that the balancing effect of the superpowers had a stabilizing effect ensuring democracy and justice. (Waltz 1979) Macfarlane on the other extreme argues that the Cold War did not really make that much difference in Africa. (Macfarlane 2002)

A Wind of Change The abrupt demise of the superpower rivalry and the sudden absence of

a

balancing

power

in

the

region

had

very

unpredictable

consequences. Many scholars had tried to predict the ramifications of the end of the Cold War in Africa and in particular the Southern Africa region. While others held a very optimistic view others held a deep pessimistic view, believing the worst for Africa had just begun.

But the reality after the end of the Cold War did not border these quite extremist views. As Macfarlane points out the difference that the end of Cold War did make was somewhat different from that which had been predicted. (Macfarlane 2002) But one thing that became clear when the iron curtain fell and the Berlin wall crumbled, was that Africa had lost whatever political lustre it may have once had before the eyes the superpowers; (Perlez 1992) it was time for her to tread in familiar yet unpredictable political waters.

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) Those who held the prevalent view that Cold War created and fuelled conflict and insecurity in Africa, opined that the end of the Cold War would translate to greater security and less conflict. (Macfarlane 2002) This optimistic view was no doubt strengthened by the end of the apartheid regime in Southern Africa. The apartheid regime, though not to the extent of the superpowers rivalry, did fuel the regional strife during the cold war. With the end of the apartheid regime in South Africa, there was hope of the political settlement of conflicts in the region. As Keith Somerville notes “these expectations were heightened by the progress towards the independence of Namibia” and “the hopes for realistic peace talks between the warring parties in Angola.” (Somerville 2002, p.134)

Again, not all scholars maintained the view that the structural overlay of the Cold War constrained conflict and enhanced stability in the region. Simon Baynham had even predicted that “we may be looking back with fondness at the predictable days of the Cold War.” (Baynham 1992) Most scholars actually subscribed to this second school of thought; they held the view that the end of bipolarity would have a decompression effect on most of the conflicts. Jose Cintra argued that the two superpowers had actually “suppressed many potential third-world conflicts”; and while the end of superpower rivalry had lessened the prospects for internationalization and escalation regional conflicts, “other conflicts will very probably arise

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) from decompression and from a loosening of the controls and selfcontrols” exercised by the superpowers. (Cintra 1989, pp. 96–7) Robert Jervis, was also of the same opinion, he observed that, with the end of the dampening effect of the conflicts by the cold war, “we should expect more conflict rather than less of it in future.” (Jervis 1991, p.59)

Oyebade and Alao contend that with the demise of the Cold War, new problems such as ethnic rivalries and religious clashes emerged within the continent. The duo maintains that the end of the Cold War did not translate into a reduction of conflict but on the contrary had helped to fan it. (Oyebade and Alao 1998) Nowhere in Africa was this more pronounced than in the Sothern Africa region. Soon after the end of the Cold War, it become increasingly clear that the Southern Africa region was still highly unstable, despite the fact that the end the Cold War had lessened the prospects for internationalization and escalation of its regional conflicts. Roland Dannreuther later pointed out that “despite its many inequities, the Cold War sustained and supported a number of states which have now almost completely disintegrated”. (Dannreuther 2002, p.43) Later on this statement became almost synonymous with Namibia, Mozambique and Angola.

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) The Paradigm shift Tom Lodge contend that the end of international bipolar geostrategic competition in Africa should logically have reduced such capacity, but instead, there was an “overall weakening of African states and an intensification of rebellions against their authority.” (Lodge 1999) Other identifiable causes of conflict such as “weak states, divided societies, economic deprivation, and social discrimination, the poor fit between identity and territoriality” continued to deny the region much needed peace and stability. (Macfarlane 2002, p.22)

Southern Africa’s liberation struggles and civil wars continued long after the end of the cold war. In South Africa, argues Lodge, the struggle reached a violent climax between 1990 and 1994 when about 14,000 deaths occurred. The deaths were as a result of militarised fights between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Inkatha movement who had the support of the state. (Lodge 1999) More than three decades, after the end of the cold war, the war in Angola is still on going. It took 24 years of insurrection and warfare for Namibia to gain its independence in 1990, while the Mozambique 16 year civil war only came to an end in 1992.

Apart from the involvement of the superpowers in the region, South African government was heavily involved in all these conflicts; sending military and economic support to antigovernment factions in

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) states that harboured ANC fighters. Between 1980 and 1992, the cost of SADF-sponsored wars in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe was estimated as involving the loss of 1.5 million lives and US$45 billion. (Steiner 1993, p.3) Johnson and Martin argued that the impact of apartheid on the region in ecological, economic and human terms ‘represents a holocaust’ (Johnson & Martin 1989, p.11)

It was only after 1990 that South Africa formally abandoned her policy

of

military

aggression

and

regional

destabilization

and

embarked on a greater regional cooperation on defence and security matters. (Nathan & Phillips, 1992) The new impetus towards regional cooperation as opposed to a hegemonic rule was born from the realisation that South Africa could not escape the problems of its neighbours, as they directly impinge upon its own stability and long term security. The spill-over effects from the security problems of neighbouring states could only be contained by ensuring peace in those states. (Willet 1998)

There were other security factors that changed within the region after the end of the cold war. Some changes were drastic while others took time to emerge. Though some of the changes occurred within a single state, the effects were more often regional. These changes were not just restricted to the region but the entire African continent as well.

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) From the state to an individual During the Cold War period, a threat to state security arose solely from other states armed forces challenging its sovereignty and territorial integrity. But with the demise of the cold war, there was a move from a state centric perception of security to a more holistic one. Security became conceptualised as a multidimensional and interdependent phenomenon. As Batchelor et al contends, the referent objects of security was no longer confined to states, but extended to other levels of interaction and analysis, to include poverty, oppression, injustice and environmental degradation, among others. (Batchelor et. al. 2002, p.27) Security and perception of security became widened to embrace social, economic and political issues and from national to both trans-national and sub national levels. (Buzan 1991; Booth 1991) With security no longer viewed from an external and purely military perspective, but rather from an internal and non-military angle, the security referent point was no longer the state but the individual. The fundamentals within the concept of individual security included, food security, environmental security, water security, etc. (Coning 1997) South Africa ANC policy document on defence acknowledged this drastic shift calling for a new approach to individual security. The document stressed that

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) “Security should not be restricted to military, police and intelligence matters, but dimensions . . .

. . . political, economic, social and environmental Underdevelopment,

poverty,

lack

of

democratic

participation and abuse of human rights are regarded as grave threats to the security of people”. (ANC 1992, Section Q2)

Towards collective security Based on the notion of interdependence and the realisation that there were global dangers which threatened the entire region, and which could not be solved by boundary protection or by military centred solutions alone, there was a dire need to move from the Cold War military centred perceptions of national security to the larger sense of collective

security.

Soon

after

the

cold

war,

military

power

increasingly appeared less appropriate to the maintenance of international security or power, and at odd with new emerging patterns of global threats. (Nye 1990)

Proponents of collective security such as Susan willet argued that “Military centred notions of national security had become fundamentally flawed in a highly interdependent world facing multiple security threats that are not amenable to traditional statist solutions.” (Willett 1998)

As a consequence of these paradigm shift, most Southern African traditional security establishment and especially in South Africa, found themselves in an equivocal position. They were faced with the 12

Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) difficult task of realigning themselves to conform to emerging new patterns

of

reality.

These

changes

were

driven

by

a

newly

empowered civil authority that advocated for a shift from the narrow militaristic approach to an all embracing collective security approach. (Thompson 1996) A multilateral institution in the region was the inevitable response to these changing patterns of security. As a result, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was created on 17 August 1992. Its security arm, the Regional Security Council (RSC), was formed under the principle of a “regional security policy [that] seeks to advance the principles of common security, nonaggression and the peaceful resolution of conflict.” (Batchelor et. al. 2002,

p.27)

The new underlying security pattern in the region became one where national security was sought with rather than against other states. There was also the recognition that “international relations are dominated by competing national interests and the risk of conflict”. The only way to deal with this emerging phenomenon was to embrace a collective security approach and “promote a culture of peaceful conflict management and resolution.” (Willett 1998)

Demilitarization There was a great emphasis on the military dimension of security, in Southern Africa during the cold war, this not only led to the 13

Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) burgeoning of military institutions and bureaucracies, but also resulted in a serious neglect of non-military aspects of security such as economic, environmental and human security. After the cold war, a successful transition to peace and democracy in the region depended on defence budget cuts and the downsizing of defence force, coupled with the adoption of non-offensive defence doctrines, and the implementation of confidence and security building measures. Thousands of soldiers were demobilized in the region, for example, between 1991 and 1994, full-time force levels were reduced from 58,000 to 1 1,000 in Mozambique, and from 54,600 to 46,900 in Zimbabwe. (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1995) while in defence budget, Botswana military spending fell from $156 million in 1990 to $126 million in 1994, in Zambia from $74 million to $31 million; while in Zimbabwe from $388 million to $242 million. (Paul et al. 1997)

The disarmament and demobilization process was not one without security consequences. Ex -combatants who could not find work were in danger of falling back on what was the only skill they had – the use of weapons – resulting in increased crime and possible insurrection. The availability of weapons made this a more acute danger. ( Motumi and McKenzie 1998) These fears became a reality when civil wars broke out in some of the Southern Africa

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) countries. As Cock argues the demobilised ex-combatants in Namibia, Mozambique, Angola and Zimbabwe became a source of instability within these countries. (Cock 1993)

Macfarlane, as well as other optimists, had believed that the diminution of the two opposing global forces in the region and a shift of the states attention from an emphasis on defence to economic and political development, through cutting of defence expenditures, would sow peace dividend in the region. (Macfarlane 2002, p.24) But this was never to be the case, the civil wars and the liberation wars that continued in the region after the end of the cold war, had shattered this illusion.

Proliferation of Light weapon and small arms According to Jacklyn Cock “the southern African region was awash with small arms and light weapons.” (Cock 1998) The presence of this huge amount of war materiel resulting from the arms race in the region during the cold war, posed a new and more serious threat to the regional security. The proliferation of this material vehicle of violence ensured

the

perpetuation

of

armed

conflict,

a

surge

of

an

unprecedented wave of violent crime in the townships and city centres and an intensification of individual human insecurity in the region. (Willet 1998)

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) In states where peace had been hard won, particularly In South Africa, Angola, Mozambique and Zimbabwe the proliferation of ‘war materiel’ potentially threatened the duration of peace accords and state stability. As Cock opines, the proliferation of light weapons became the key issue which threatened the consolidation of the regional security on which all other transformation, such as economic, social and political, depended. (Cock 1996)

New type of Conflicts Cock argues that “since 1989 there have been global changes in the nature of violence and armed conflict”, with a shift from the traditional “war between states using major weapon systems, to intra-state war involving light weapons.” (Cock 1998) This “remarkable break with the past” quips Tilly (Tilly 1990, p.180) became more pronounced in Africa. As Goulding further notes, "almost all the conflicts in Africa since the end of the Cold War were conflicts within sovereign states. (Goulding 1999, p.158) But it was Southern Africa region that was the hub of these intra-state conflicts.

The predicted era of peace and stability after the end of the Cold War in the region was quickly shattered by an acceleration and intensification of small but intense civil wars, characterised by racial, ethnic, linguistic and cultural differences. these ‘teacup wars’ as Gelb sarcastically calls them, (Gelb 1994) somehow flared up under the

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) pressure of the region new found freedom, erupting to protracted civil wars especially in Mozambique, Angola and Namibia, while a racial war threatened to tear apart South Africa and Zimbabwe. (Coning 1997) These ‘new’ forms of warfare that the end of the Cold War helped to unleash in the region, can be partially explained by the above noted differences, but more so by the fact that national boundaries in the region, as in all African states, are fluid and shifting and their meaning is ever a matter of contention and rivalry.

These arbitrarily states boundaries, have been blamed as the major catalyst for the intra-state conflict in the region after the cold war. The widespread proliferation of intrastate conflicts, as Susan Willett contends, appear to have increasingly raised the threat of the system of sovereign states; the conflicts threatened to disintegrate warring states into new forms of organising principle of international relations and diplomacy. (Willett 1998) Mozambique and Angola became an exemplar of Willet unfounded fears.

New Complex Emergencies With the demise of the Cold War in 1989 and the proliferation of intra-state warfare’s, the distinction between combatant and civilian during warfare become not only blurred but also almost irrelevant. Civilians became increasingly the targets and instruments of war, and as a consequence, the number of casualties increased exponentially.

17

Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) These ‘complex emergencies’ were complex in terms of the shear numbers of players involved. They were also complex in their causes and complex because of their repercussions; they resulted to massive humanitarian tragedies that defied local help and required the intervention of the international community. In Southern Africa region, the Angolan civil wars are an excellent case of this post-Cold War phenomenon.

New Types of Institutions As the nature of conflicts changed and became more complex, new forms of responses were required to tackle these conflicts. There was a shift from the Cold War bilateral responses to conflicts settlements to a new multilateral approach to conflict resolution. It was only with the end of the Cold War that the United Nations became more active in performing the kind of duties foreseen for it in 1945. as Macfarlane observes, the UN

" had been prevented from properly fulfilling its

role in the promotion of security by the cold war-induced impasse within the Security Council”, but the “end of the Cold War permitted more decisive action by the organization in response to threats to international peace and security”. (Macfarlane 2002, p.24)

The resumption of civil war in Angola in the early 1990s soon after the end of the Cold War is attributed to the failure of the UN to send

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) peacekeeping forces in Angola to ensure a smooth transition from war to a stable state. The UN failure to send the troops is in turn blamed on the Security Council impasse and unwillingness to commit the UN in such a venture.

The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) as well as South African Development Community (SADC) were also unshackled from the Cold War geopolitical constrains becoming more active in the attempt to reconcile warring factions in Africa and Southern Africa states respectively. In South Africa for example, the White Paper made provision for and recognized the regional as well as the international multilateral institutions as key players towards establishing a stable and peaceful South Africa as well as the Southern Africa region.

New role for military Personnel With the end of the Cold War and with the conflict resolution moving from a bilateral to a multilateral level, the role of military personnel also underwent radical shift. Peace operations as opposed to traditional military duties, which mainly revolved around war making during the cold period, became their new responsibility. In peace keeping operations the military assumed other duties which were otherwise seen as ‘civilians’ duties’. These included tasks such as, human rights monitoring, election monitoring, demobilisation and the reintegration of ex-combatants into civil society, civilian police

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) monitoring,

and

protection

for

the

civilian

and

humanitarian

personnel in peace operations, among other ‘civil duties.’

The end of the Cold War also saw civilian personnel working together in peace settlement processes and in rebuilding of states after the war. Economic, social and political reconstruction that took place in southern Africa, especially in Angola, Mozambique and Namibia after the end of the civil wars, is a good example of military and civilians working together after the end of the Cold War period.

Neo-colonialism But even after the end of the cold war, southern Africa region, as is the case with the rest of the Third World states, remained a prey to the designs of the great powers. This can probably be explained by the regions rich natural resources, especially in South Africa, Angola and Mozambique which has seen the resumption of civil wars in Angola and Mozambique several times after the end of the cold war. The departure of the superpowers in the region saw the rise of South Africa as the region as well as the continent most powerful state. In the region South Africa has been accused by other states of harboring ‘hegemonic tendency’ and supporting rebel groups in neighboring states in her bid to achieve regional dominance.

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Joseph N. Kiarie (MA International studies-Security Studies) Conclusion Despite African states having adopted a non-aligned foreign policy in the attempt to shield the continent from the influences of the superpowers during the cold war, the attempt not only failed but also resulted to the continent becoming a key geopolitical arena of the two superpowers. The impact of the end of the Cold War was felt throughout the entire region, but it is the “perceived strategic significance” as well as the “internal characteristics” that determined the extent of the security impact of the subject states in question. (Acharya 2002, p.32) Similarly, Oyebade and Alao argue that the extent of involvement of each state was determined “more by the vicissitudes of its internal and sub-regional politics”, and not their “original intent to say out of Cold War politics”. (Oyebade and Alao 1998, p.8)

The paradigm shift in the nature of security in the southern Africa region was an inevitable occurrence. It was not so much because of the region’s geopolitical status, but as a result of the ‘wind of change’. The end of the Cold War heralded a "new world order” which called for new strategic, political, and economic interrelationships globally. It is these global changes, after the demise of the cold war that dictated the change of security and the perception of security in the Southern Africa region.

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