The Future Of Project Management 1

Source: PROJECT MANAGEMENT

CHAPTER 22

THE FUTURE OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT1

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” YOGI BERRA

22.1 INTRODUCTION Josh Billings once said: “Don’t ever prophesy: for if you prophesy wrong, nobody will forget it; and if you prophesy right, nobody will remember it.” With these words in mind, it takes a certain amount of intellectual courage and emotional recklessness to make predictions about the future of project management. As the authors were finishing writing this chapter, the horrific events of September 11, 2001, had happened—terrorists struck a devastating blow to America by crashing two airplanes into the World Trade Center towers in New York City, crashing an airplane into the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., and causing a fourth airplane to crash in southwestern Pennsylvania. This unprecedented attack on the American people changes the future of U.S. citizens and their guests in America as perhaps no other event could.

22.2 RECENT DISASTER SHAPES THE FUTURE The authors envision that the events of September 11, 2001, will bring out the latent talents of Americans and recovery will be accomplished, for the most part, through projects. Projects can be used to address the challenges facing people everywhere. Such areas as (1) removal of debris at the crash sites, (2) rebuilding of damaged or destroyed facilities, (2) relocation of services from the crash sites, (3) investigations of terrorist activities, (4) changes in laws regarding civil liberties, (5) changes to airport security, and (6) changes to emergency response practices are candidates for the use of project management practices. 1 This chapter is an extension of David I. Cleland, “The Strategic Pathway of Project Management,” Proceedings, Project Management Institute, 28th Annual Seminar/Symposium, Chicago, September 27–October 2, 1996.

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Today, many people are making predictions about how the world has been changed by these events. Some of these predictions may be correct—but in all probability a limited number of these predictions will not come about. Given the intellectual liability that authors assume in writing this chapter, we choose to press on. Perhaps some of our predictions will be correct! This chapter starts with a review of some of the past influences and some of the probable general future trends likely to impact project management. The authors attempt to answer the question: What does it mean? Then the chapter makes some predictions about the future of project management, and includes how management philosophies might change in the future. The growth of the Project Management Institute in recent years, the likely continued increase in megaprojects, and some additional project management changes are noted. As readers peruse this chapter, the authors would like everyone to think about the question: What is beyond project management? In considering this question it would be useful to remember that project management evolved from the theory and practice of general management. As the discipline of project management continues to grow toward maturity, it is quite probable that new meanings, new ideas, changed concepts, enhanced philosophies, and improved management processes will develop. All of this could cause, at some future time, a new focus in management that just might replace project management as we know it today.

22.3 THE PRACTICE OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT The practice of project management has been with us for a long time. This discipline and its evolution as a profession are described elsewhere in this book. Today, project management has reached a maturity that entitles it to a rightful place in the practice and the literature of the management field. Its application has spread to many “nontraditional” uses as it continues to be one of the principal means by which operational and strategic changes are managed in the enterprise. Pinto noted that “the importance of project management for organizational success will expand rather than wane in the years to come.”2 In this chapter some of the recent major changes in the management field are presented, along with a summary of the key contributions that have been made by project and team management in recent times. From that summary, a few predictions will be made concerning the likely nature of project and team management in the future.

22.4 PAST AND CURRENT INFLUENCES In considering the future of project management, an examination of some of the major forces in the field of the management discipline in the past should be considered. 2 Jeffrey K. Pinto, (ed.), “The Future of Project Management,” chap. 25 in The Project Management Institute Project Management Handbook (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1998).

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In the last 10 to 20 years, there have been major forces that have impacted the theory and practice of management. A summary of these forces follows: ●

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Product and service life cycles are becoming shorter, impacting how companies compete in the global marketplace. A growing realization that as new or improved technology is integrated into products and services, the organizational processes to support such technology have to be improved as well. An increasing trend in the use of alternative team organizational designs to cope with the need for the integration of interfunctional and interorganizational activities to support product, service, and process development. Downsizing and restructuring of organizations to improve efficiency and effectiveness, which has resulted in the elimination and shifting of managerial and professional positions. Growing realization that the persons doing the work know the most about how that work should be done, and through enhanced participation of these individuals on alternative teams, improved organizational performance has been sustained. Computer and telecommunications technology has made remarkable progress in the use and management of information and has helped increase enterprise productivity. The relative roles of “managers” and “leaders” have come under scrutiny and redefinition, with the use of alternative teams enhancing the opportunities for more people to move into managerial and leadership positions than previously could. More emphasis is being placed on the interpersonal capabilities of executives, with the role of traditional first-level supervisors changing from a traditional “boss” to a facilitator, coach, mentor, counselor, coordinator, and oversight person in obtaining and using resources in the enterprise. Global competition has become the “name of the game” for the survivability and growth of industrial enterprises. The surge in demand for products and services in developing countries, as well as the need for infrastructure improvement throughout the world, has influenced the demand for project management services. Customers and suppliers are taking more active roles in the design and execution of enterprise strategies, even to the point of serving on new and improved product and service design and development teams. Collective bargaining and unionism are becoming more sophisticated to include the presence of union leaders and members on the alternative teams of the enterprise. The maturation of a philosophy of strategic management of the enterprise—the management of the enterprise as if its future mattered—is reflected in more proactive strategic planning and execution strategies in contemporary enterprises. Engineering and other technologies appear to be doubling every few years, with innovators in such technologies arising from many places in the global environment. The growing success of the application of project management in the managing of operational and strategic change.

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A broader application of project management processes and techniques beyond the traditional construction and defense industries—expressed in reengineering, benchmarking, concurrent engineering, and self-managed production initiatives, to name a few. Growing influences of enterprise and project stakeholders as legitimate claimants of those things of value being created by the enterprise, including an increased membership of such stakeholders on project and alternative teams in the enterprise. Traditional jobs are being modified and lost in today’s organizations, and similar losses will likely continue in the future. Bank tellers, secretaries, administrative typists, factory workers who do rote assembly work, and service station attendants, to name a few, are those whose jobs are being changed or lost.

Robert Reich, secretary of labor under President Clinton, argues that businesses must stay competitive in an unprecedented manner—and must constantly innovate, compete on razor-thin margins, and operate around-the-clock to stem competition from the global marketplace.3 In the material that follows, a few general predictions of what the future holds will be given. These predictions will, in general, be presented within the context of a systems framework: political systems, economic systems, social systems, legal systems, and technological systems.

22.5 SOME GENERAL FUTURE TRENDS Before becoming too enamored with trying to predict the future, we must revisit Peter Drucker’s caution about trying to do so. He cautions about organizations becoming too fascinated with the future, and makes the argument that organizations that forecast and make strategic decisions about the future are unlikely to succeed in the long term.4 Those “futurists” and other people who spend most of their time making predictions about likely trends and events of the future have missed some of the major changes that impact societies of the world. Who was able to predict the outbreak of AIDS, the rapid collapse of world communism, and the strong movement of drastic corporate restructuring in the United States? How many forecasters were able to see the rapid technological change and the growing experimentation in the way enterprises are organized and managed? How many stock market analysts envisioned the perceptible decline of high-tech stocks in 2001? Not many were able to anticipate the growing influence of cooperative and long-term relationships between companies and their various stakeholders. And, in the field of project management, only a few visionaries sensed the change that the use of project teams would have on the structure and management style used 3

Robert B. Reich, The Future of Success (Random Audio Books, 2001). Peter Drucker, “Planning for Uncertainty,” The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 1999, p. A12.

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by contemporary organizations, and the growing use of alternative teams in the management of operational and strategic change in the enterprise. But, given our modest capabilities in predicting the future, we keep trying.

22.6 CHANGING MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHIES Firms today, throughout the world, are attempting major shifts in their management philosophies through reengineering and restructuring of their organizations. Firms have restructured their organizational design and have introduced the use of alternative teams to focus more on core operations by eliminating unrelated operations, improving organizational processes, downsizing, flattening their organizational hierarchies, and developing strategies to commercialize their products sooner and reduce their manufacturing cycle time. Continuous improvement of products, services, and organizational processes dominated the strategy of many of the premier firms of the 1980s and 1990s. Major changes in manufacturing include a departure from mass production strategies to lean manufacturing where flexibility, rapid responses, and improved human resources practices, product development strategies, manufacturing methods, supplier and customer relations, and management methods are practiced.

22.7 DISTRIBUTION CHANGES Channels of distribution of products and services are likely to change significantly. Witness the past emergence of large discount chains, the evolution of telemarketing, and the changes already under way in the manner in which automobiles are purchased. Retailers are continuing their trend to fewer frills, more warehouse stores, and fewer face-to-face interactions with salespersons. Smaller retailers will continue to be threatened and are being replaced by large discounters, where personal selling has declined and purchasers find what they want from large displays of products. The need for better product distribution has helped motivate the rise of integrated logistic support initiatives in the business community.

22.8 INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS Rich and emerging nations are becoming more aware of the need to revalue and update their infrastructures. In Asia, the flow of people into the cities continues, with predictions that approximately 1.5 billion people will be added to the urban centers of Asia in the next 10 years. Radical solutions and innovations are needed in a focus of project management to improve the infrastructure of these areas. China alone is expected to spend something over $200 billion in the next few years on infrastructure development. Other emerging nations are not far behind this rate of spending.

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Transportation The shifting focus of economic opportunities in the Far East will make air transportation and air cargo product distribution key considerations in the development of infrastructure to support these initiatives. Strategic Partnering Strategic alliances and joint ventures will continue to become more common as companies learn about the advantages of cooperation. Established western companies will form alliances with competitive Asian firms, whose home marketing clout cannot be ignored. Population Growth Of all the challenges facing global society today, the growing population of the world is sowing seeds for future opportunities and problems. Demand increases for supporting infrastructures, more food, more medical systems, more of everything. Today, it is not uncommon to hear of famine and deprivation in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. The predictions of Thomas Malthus of the excess of population over available resources may become a reality. Thomas Malthus (1760–1834), an English economist and demographer, is probably best known for his concept that the population will increase in geometrical progression, whereas the means of subsistence will increase at only an arithmetical progression. He said that population will always expand to the limit of subsistence and be held there by famine, war, and ill health. He may yet be recognized for his clairvoyance— many places in the world today cannot produce enough food for their citizenry—and there is not enough transportation capability to get the food to the people that need it. Millions of human beings are likely to have a subsistence existence. Technology Changes In the twentieth century, awesome changes have occurred in technology. There is little reason to expect that rate of change to slow down in the next century. Indeed, it may very well accelerate. What will be the outcome of the miniaturization of computers, the outcome of telecommunications via satellites, and what about the advances in optical transmission technologies? Will biotechnology fulfill its promises? What will be the impact of ceramics on the design of engines of the future? What additional changes will come about in manufacturing, where today there is a strong movement from mass production to lean manufacturing strategies? The linking of computers from the design laboratory through to the production floor of the factories has—and will likely continue to have—enormous implications for global manufacturing competitiveness, the work force, and flexibility in producing goods to order, reducing the need for warehouses. The practical

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promise of solar energy and electric batteries continues to evade us—but what will the future bring in these technologies? The information highway, and its promises and threats, has caught the attention of “futurists” around the globe. Diverse Work Force A growing, diverse work force greater than we have today, with more women and so-called minorities, will increasingly represent the work force of the future. Training and retraining initiatives will become a way of life in the enterprises of the future. Diversity in the work force will parallel the changes impacting the manner and style in which organizations are managed today, with additional changes coming in the future as we grapple with the means of improving productivity through people, as well as through capital equipment such as robotic systems, information systems, and alternative organizational designs. Our ability to develop and implement new managerial paradigms will be a principal test of whether or not the enterprise survives. Strategic management—the management of the enterprise as if its future mattered—will become the principal game to play in managing the organizations of the future. Changing organizational cultures to provide for more employee participation, empowerment, and higher motivation through transitory membership on alternative teams is a major challenge facing today’s managers—a challenge that will certainly continue in the future. The key question facing all managers throughout the globe is clear: Will the company have the management systems and culture to move forward against the unforgiving global competition in the marketplace today? People Skills As we move away from the traditional “command-and-control” paradigm of management suggested by Peter Drucker, interpersonal skills are becoming more important. Seasoned managers realize that many of the skills required for success revolve around the ability to communicate, the ability to work with people, the competency to negotiate, and the patience to listen. As the use of teams grows in the management of change in contemporary and future organizations, people skills will continue to be one of the most important assets in the management style of managers and professionals at all levels of the enterprise. Political Discontinuities Without question, the world is in a sea of constant discontinuities. Countries like China, Russia, and others are departing from their traditional roles. The restructuring of their economies, political changes, and the struggle to maintain social equality in their citizenry are posing challenges of unprecedented balances in the utilization of resources. Over the next couple of decades the countries that best resolve their political uncertainties and the optimum use of their resources will be the winners. Others may well lose their existing power bases in the world.

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The cyber revolution will continue to change human life. We are likely to become richer and better educated as we expand the use of computers in our work and private lives. Yet there is the probability that we will become lonelier and less healthy as we work more in isolation and neglect physical activity. People may socialize less in order to spend more time in the “make believe world” of entertainment.

22.9 WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Throughout the changes impacting modern organizations one constant has remained: Resistance to change in organizations most often comes from individuals who fear that change may bring losses to the organization and to themselves. Change usually creates winners and losers, although enlightened management can deal with the change in such a way that a loss to individuals is reduced through retraining, early retirement, placement assistance, and other strategies. Those organizations that have undergone significant changes have gradually come to recognize that successful change comes only with the commitment and cooperation of individuals in the working levels of the enterprise. Some, if not all, of the trends that have been put forth in this chapter may never come about. This is unlikely. What is likely is that the political, social, economic, technological, and competitive changes in the future will be somewhat like what has happened in the past, but some of those changes will be extraordinary and will pose challenges of major proportions, particularly in how the societies deal with these changes. Part of successfully dealing with these changes will come from a judicious use of a prescription of alternative teams in the management philosophy and style of those entities—industrial, military, governmental, social, or whatever— that have to deal with the changes as interested stakeholders. Knowing of a pending change and having no management philosophy with which to deal with that change can be terrifying. Muddling through will be an invitation to failure. But an organized team of resources managed through a project management systems approach shows considerable promise as a way to cope with, and in the process influence, the effects of a change.

22.10 THE FUTURE OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT One of the fascinating predictions about the future of project management was set forth by Stewart, who wrote, “Project management is the wave of the future.”5 In considering the future of project management, first it will be necessary to review some of the expected changes in our society that will, in some manner, influence the theory and practice of project management. As changes in political, social, economic, competitive, legal, and technological systems occur, project 5 Tom Stewart, “The Corporate Jungle Spawns a New Species: The Project Manager,” Fortune, July 10, 1995, pp. 179–180.

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management will likely be impacted, because project management provides the principal means by which such change is managed in today’s and tomorrow’s organizations. For example, the promise of an improved or new technology in a planned product or service requires the use of concurrent engineering teams to simultaneously develop the new product, service, and supporting organizational processes. A strategic plan that calls for the expansion of an enterprise’s manufacturing capacity will require the appointment of a project team to conceptualize, design, construct, and arrange for the start of the plan. An enterprise that faces a downturn in the demand for its products and services, and must consider cutting back its expenses, will require a reengineering team to examine its operation with an assessment of how well its organizational processes are being carried out, the basic design of the organizational structure, and other means for improving its overall efficiency and effectiveness. Some of the project management–related changes follow. Political Changes Political changes foster the development and application of project management strategies. The sweeping political changes in the former Eastern European bloc fostered the abandonment of many of the autocratic social and management philosophies of the communist-dominated countries in this bloc. Major changes in the infrastructure of the former communist countries and the need to design and develop competitive business strategies, update plant and equipment, and improve the managerial and professional skills of employees became critical. Project management, sometimes used in an informal process, helped these former communist countries move toward capitalistic and democratic societies. Social Considerations Bringing about major social changes in a country calls for the use of project management. The push for affirmative action in the United States motivated executives to develop proactive programs in their organizations to support equality in the management of personnel. Equality standards in U.S. colleges and universities prompted the need to develop projects and programs to ensure that such standards were carried out in the hiring of faculty and in undergraduate and graduate study programs. Lawyers had to develop initiatives in their work to support the objectives of affirmative action programs, as well as other state, local, and national legislation in the environmental area. Competitive Alterations Competitive changes have fostered increased interest on the part of companies in the use of teams. In some cases, the benchmarking of their competitors has disclosed the use of teams in the product and service strategies. Sometimes they have benchmarked the “best-in-the-industry” performance and found that teams have been Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.

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used as key elements in the strategy of these best performers. Nothing will catch the attention of senior executives more quickly than to find out that they are being defeated in the marketplace by a competitor. Finding out that a competitor is outperforming a company in the marketplace will motivate the executives to find out why the competitors have been able to do so much better. For example, when Xerox found out that Japanese companies were selling their copiers for what it cost Xerox to manufacture its copiers, an immediate investigation was conducted by Xerox to determine the reason. Xerox found that the use of concurrent engineering processes and techniques accounted for the difference. Xerox then initiated concurrent engineering in a forthright manner to reduce the time it took for them to develop their copiers—subsequently becoming able to compete with the Japanese competitors. Modification of Project Management Practices Project management, as we know it today, will likely change in the future. Advances in communication through computer technology, the integrated voice data and imaging techniques, and the Internet will provide higher levels of ability to communicate. The growing ability to exchange information on a global basis will help foster a different world of project management. The ability to use technology for gathering, analyzing, and interpreting data should provide more opportunity for the improvement of the processes and techniques involved in managing projects. With the help of such technologies the typical project manager should have more time to deal with the human element in the management of projects—and this asset will become more valuable in the future world. Continued refinement and improvement of the tools of project management, principally by way of schedule and cost management, will reduce the amount of time that the typical project manager will spend on these things. Future project managers will focus more on the people who are responsible for executing the project, including greater time with all of the stakeholders as their influence in the project affairs is likely to increase, facilitated by the increasing availability of information about the project. Project Management Research A few years ago the Project Management Institute launched an initiative to determine the need for project-related research in the field. Through a team of PMI notables a development effort was organized and developed to study and make recommendations concerning the need for research in the project management field. As a result of the deliberations of this team, researchers were funded to pursue a variety of research topics in order to advance the state-of-the-art of the discipline. The first major contribution of this research initiative was a conference held during June 2000, in Paris, France. This conference, titled “Project Management Research at the Turn of the Millennium” (Proceedings, PMI Research 2000, Paris, France, June 21–24, 2000), attracted over 350 people from 27 countries. Fifteen Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.

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invited and 30 contributed papers reported on a wide variety of different project management issues. Another conference to review research in the project management field will be held July 2002 in Seattle, Washington. The reader who wishes to learn more about PMI’s research strategy should look at the PMI website at www.pmi.org. In 1999, the Project Management Institute commissioned a study to evaluate the future of project management. This study was sponsored by the 1998 PMI Research Program team and included garnered input from PMI members, reviewed PMI reports, and publications, and through thoughtful consideration of the forces at work involving project management came up with a “first of its kind” report. A paraphrasing of the major conclusions of this study follows: The nature of project teams is changing dramatically, and the work of such teams is becoming more complex.6 ● ●

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Project management is evolving into a profession. There is growing evidence of rapid participation in the project management profession. Attention to the people and interpersonal aspects of the practice of project management is increasing. The complexity of the project management profession is putting increased demands on those people who work on project teams.

Nontraditional Projects7 In the last 10 years project management has moved rapidly out of its traditional redoubts and is moving from a specialty strategy into a central task of management for the process of managing product, service, and organizational process change. Project management’s original application was principally in construction and Department of Defense projects. As it demonstrated its ability to provide a process and techniques for pulling together cross-functional and cross-organizational activities, organizations began experimenting with the use of teams to deal with other applications. As these applications grew in importance and use, project management and its success in the use of teams extended the use of project management techniques to other areas of the enterprise, such as: ●

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Reengineering applications teams used to bring about a fundamental rethinking and radical redesign of business processes to achieve extraordinary improvements in organizational efficiency. Concurrent engineering applications—concurrent product, service, and organizational process development teams to develop, produce, and market products and services earlier, of a higher quality, and at a lower cost. 6

The Future of Project Management, published by the Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, Pa., 1999. The reader will doubtless note that the terms in this subsection are discussed more fully in Chapter 21. The summary given here is meant to place them in the context of current and future changes in project management. 7

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Benchmarking initiatives—using teams to measure organizational products, services, and processes against the most formidable competitors and industry leaders to use as performance standards for the enterprise. Development of new business opportunities using teams to explore, design, develop, and execute new ventures for the enterprise. Total quality management initiatives accomplished through the use of teams that utilize cross-functional organizational designs to integrate enterprise quality improvement strategies. Improved quality and productivity in manufacturing and production operations through the use of self-managed production teams.

22.11 MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY MODIFICATIONS One of the major contributions of project management, and alternative team management during the 1980s and 1990s, has been a modification to the management discipline. These modifications have changed management philosophies, processes, and techniques and the performance standards by which an enterprise’s efficacy can be judged. These modifications and their likely continuation include: ●

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Acceptance and virtual institutionalization of the “matrix” organizational design. In such acceptance, the use of project teams overlaid on the traditional organizational structure has become simply “the way we do things around here” in the project- and team-driven enterprise entity. This acceptance will continue in the future, with the potential of leading to the gradual disappearance of the “matrix” organizational design as a distinct entity as it is further amalgamated into the culture of enterprises. Acceptance of the singularity and importance of project planning as a means for determining the resources required—and how these resources will be used— during the life cycle of the project. In the future, project planning will gain in importance as the means for identifying and committing resources to deal with operational and strategic change in the enterprise. New organizational design initiatives will be assessed as a means for enhancing the use of a focal point for product, service, and organizational process change. The virtual organization, further extension of the “matrix” design to deal with a more active participation of project stakeholders, and the means for the extemporaneous emergence of formal and informal teams in the organization will deal with the pressures of change coming from competitive and environmental sources. Ad hoc teams, both formal and informal, will become more of a way of life in the enterprises of the future. Organizational members have found that the opportunities for their growing participation in both the operational and strategic initiatives of the enterprise have heightened their role in decision making in the enterprise. This has led to

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an enhancement of their feelings of belonging and contributing to the organization. Through having growing opportunities for participation in the affairs of the enterprise, people are motivated to share in the results and rewards of the enterprise. In the late 1980s and the 1990s, the growing use of teams has opened broadened opportunities for workers to perform managerial and leadership functions as they work on operational and strategic teams in the enterprise. As workers have participated on these teams, their appreciation of the challenges facing organizational managers and leaders has increased, leading to greater support of such managers and leaders—and a growing desire of workers to become more proactive in the opportunities to carry out managerial and leadership activities in the spheres of work. In the future these trends will continue, with a growing base of people in the enterprise who can perform managerial and leadership roles. Managerial control systems in the 1980s to the present time have grown in importance and in sophistication. Yet the role of individuals to “monitor, evaluate, and control” their personal work in the enterprise has never been more important and pronounced. As individuals have served on the various teams available to the enterprise, there has been a growing recognition on the part of these individuals that “self-control” is important and is a major and effective way to ensure that the planned use of resources is consistent with organizational goals and objectives. The growing use of teams in the 1980s to the present time has brought the management of stakeholders into greater play than in the past. The growing importance of stakeholders to the destiny of the project and the enterprise has sharpened the awareness of the “systems approach” to the management of the project and the enterprise. A philosophy has developed in contemporary managers and leaders that “everything is related to everything else.” Accordingly, the making and execution of decisions are being done more and more with an awareness of the likely system reverberations of the use of resources in both the operational and the strategic sense, to include an assessment of the growing influence of stakeholders. This trend will continue in the future and will likely stimulate the emergence of models and paradigms on how such “systems” considerations can be melded into the design and execution of decisions by future project managers. In recent years there have been new applications of project management, reflecting its use in a wide variety of different industries and organizations. Today, industrial, educational, military, social, governmental, and ecclesiastical organizations use project management to varying degrees. This trend will continue in the future, as the recognition that project management is an effective means of dealing with change grows among more managers, leaders, commanders, administrators, and ministry and lay people who see project management for what it is: a means for dealing with operational and strategic change in the enterprise. The concept and process of strategic management of the enterprise gained acceptance in the late 1980s and 1990s. An important part of strategic management is the process of strategic planning, whose objective is to develop a sense of direction and acceleration for the enterprise in its future. The growing use of

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a philosophy of strategic management of the enterprise has been accompanied by growing use of project management and alternative team management as means for dealing with the environmental and competitive changes that face all organizational entities today. Strategic planning teams have been used successfully by modern enterprises to facilitate the strategic planning process. This trend will likely continue, stimulated in part because the growing competitiveness in product and service change is becoming more the performance standard in the global marketplace.

22.12 INCREASE IN MEGAPROJECTS A megaproject is defined as one that has the following characteristics: (1) extraordinary financing from both private and public sources; (2) major political, economic, and environmental considerations—both during its design and engineering and construction phases as well as when the project results become operational; (3) ongoing involvement by knowledgeable stakeholders from political, intervenor, financial, economic, and user communities; (4) major “systems” planning and control challenges; (5) likely intense scrutiny by stakeholders to include media and local community interests; and (6) projects that deal with the likely shortages of water, energy, and transportation resources. An example of a current megaproject keynotes some of the major “systems” challenges that these projects face. Bechtel was responsible for planning, designing, engineering, procurement, right-of-way acquisition, and construction of a second gas pipeline which extends 875 miles from Canada into central California, with a cost of approximately $1.6 billion, including a new compressor station and retrofitting of 17 other compressor stations and 3 major meter stations. The new pipeline parallels the first line that was built in the early 1960s. Concern about a wide range of environmental factors was paramount throughout the pipeline expansion. Careful planning by Bechtel resulted in the development of extensive safeguarding of environmental factors on the pipeline. Certain measures dealt with the control of erosion, noxious weeds, hazardous material, and construction noise, as well as extensive training for all personnel on environmental awareness and work practices.8 Concerning the growing increase in megaprojects: ●

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The demand for megaprojects for the improvement of infrastructures in the world will continue to accelerate. This demand is particularly strong in the emerging nations in the world. Much of this demand will center around major power, water, and transportation initiatives and health care, as well as social “reengineering” projects. Key stakeholders will continue to gain in their influence on the conceptualization, design, construction, and operation of megaprojects. 8

Gary Walker and John Myrick, “Doubling a Pipeline,” Civil Engineering, January 1994, pp. 50–52.

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The financing of megaprojects will continue to become more critical, because public funds are increasingly used to develop economic and social infrastructures to help meet the growing needs of population increases, resource shortages, resource exploration and use, and increases in global standards of living.

22.13 OTHER PROJECT MANAGEMENT CHANGES ●

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Continuing the influence that it has had in the past, project management will continue to contribute to the further modification of traditional management approaches and vertical hierarchies in the organizations of the future. Experience and competency in team management and leadership will become major considerations in the selection and promotion of senior managers in the future. The opportunity to gain experience in the management and leadership of teams will continue to broaden as teams grow in use in the organizations of the future. The strategic and operational management of technology through projects will become a key pacing factor in the enterprise’s ability to offer new and improved products and services supported by innovative organizational processes. New products and services will be created at unprecedented rates in the future through project management, with the ability to develop such products and services in effective and efficient ways as a key competitive factor for existing enterprises and for new enterprises that will come forth as the relentless changes foster the need for new products and services for the global marketplace. As the use of project management and alternative team management grows, the need for training in the concepts and processes of team management will also accelerate. Universities and colleges will continue to recognize the need for undergraduate and graduate courses and research to advance the state of the art in the theory and practice of project and team management. The developing nations of the world will be particularly anxious to learn more about project management as a way to deal with the awesome changes that are facing them.

22.14 ADDITIONAL CHANGES Some additional likely changes to project management in the future include: ●

Continued growth in the sophistication of software to be used in cost and schedule tracking, and further development of group software, which can be used to conduct project planning and review meetings even though the people are geographically separated.

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Professional organizations representing the project management community will likely continue to grow in membership. Alternative professional organizations in the field of project management will likely emerge. The growing extension of project management and alternative team management will continue to change the role of traditional managers—moving away from the traditional “command-and-control” mode to a role that functions as counselors, consultants, coaches, teachers, and trainers. Less attention will be given to the “matrix organization” in the literature as future organizations institutionalize the use of the matrix design in the management of projects and other alternative team initiatives. There will be a growing, closer link of project planning and strategic planning in the enterprise, as it becomes increasingly clear that project results are the pathway to the organization’s future. There will be limits to innovative changes in project cost and schedule techniques. The greatest opportunities for the improvement of project management will deal with human and organizational issues. Project monitoring, evaluation, and control will be assumed more by the members of the project team than by formal review and reporting procedures. International issues over scarce resources having geopolitical origins will likely not be reduced. The risk of armed conflict over the use of scarce resources such as petroleum, food, water, and critical minerals will be present. Military projects will be undertaken by the stronger nations of the world to contain these conflicts and work toward settlements that will have some compromise in the allocation of the world’s scarce resources. Project managers—and other managers—will have to become conversant with the means for international competition and the marketing and development of products and services that will be appropriate for diverse markets and varying customers throughout the world. The technological advancements in computer technology and information sources such as the Internet as applied to project management will continue to grow.

22.15 A TURNING POINT We have just turned the corner on a new century, which invites speculation about what our future will be like. Will the theory and practice of project management undergo as much change as we have seen in the last 50 years in this discipline? Will the future of project management be another time of unprecedented fulfillment, or will it be “business as usual” in this remarkable discipline that is still undergoing change in its theoretical foundations, in its practice, and in its application? A more important question is: How do we look at the future of project management? Will project management be the same game with little change in the way it is played? Or will project management become a new game, with new concepts, processes, techniques, and applications?

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Project management—and its likely changes—has to be considered from the perspective of the major changes that have impacted our society in the past and in the present. We are in the middle of major transformations cutting across our society, and the outcomes of these transformations are far from certain. Political, economic, social, and technological changes are causing dislocations, and even today, Heraclitus’s thought that “all is flux, nothing stays still, nothing endures but change” has relevancy. Project management—and the use of alternative teams—has influenced and has been influenced by the forces of change in today’s world of management. The interdependency of these forces and the use of teams as elements of operational and strategic change in today’s organization will likely continue into the future. Traditional organizational structures are likely to undergo continued modification as the use of teams and higher degrees of employee participation are likely to be found in the organizations of the future. Those authors who write the history of management for the late twentieth century and the first couple of decades after the turn of the century are likely to see that project management was one of the principal forces that influenced change in the theory and practice of management. What will be the likely continued influence of project management and alternative teams in the change of management theory and practice in the future? One prediction about the future of project management can be made with little risk as to its likely outcome: That prediction is that the future promises many changes cutting across all of society—in the entire world. Such political, social, economic, technological, and competitive changes will stimulate an already strong demand for project management. Consequently, the demand for people who are competent to serve on project teams and who are able to manage the enterprise using project management as a key strategy in the management of operational and strategic change will likely continue. But throughout all of our thinking about the future of project management, we are reminded: “Predicting the future is easy. Getting it right is the hard part.”9

22.16 TO SUMMARIZE Some of the major points that have been expressed in this chapter include: ●

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The future is important to all of us because we will be spending the rest of our lives there. The management discipline has experienced considerable change in the last 50 years. The project management discipline has emerged with considerable rapidity in the last several decades. During this evolution it has changed in many ways. Changes to this discipline are likely to continue in the future.

9 Howard Frank, Director, Information Technology, Office of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Arlington, Va., quoted in Garry H. Anthes, “Predicting the Future,” Computer World, vol. 30, no. 23, June 3, 1996, p. 70.

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Project management and alternative team management have had major influences in how contemporary organizations are able to deal with change in their environment. Although “futurists” and other prognosticators have been able to some degree to predict future trends and events, some of the major changes in the political, social, economic, technological, and competitive areas have come as a surprise to most of us. Project management has an interlink with the future through its ability to provide a management system and a philosophy for the management of operational and strategic change in contemporary organizations. Many of the changes likely to occur in the future will probably be a simple extrapolation of what has happened in the past. Other changes could be of major significance for which there is no past or present precedent. Many changes to be expected in the future will have their roots in the changing world’s population, the diversity of the work force, and the demands of people for a greater share of the economic benefits of their societies. There will likely be increased emphasis on the interpersonal skills of managers and professionals. This need will be particularly important as project stakeholders become more influential in the practice of project management in their domain. Much of the future application of project management will occur in the emerging nations of the world. There will be a growing interest in how best to manage megaprojects as emerging nations see the need to change their infrastructures. A leading U.S. business magazine, Fortune, predicted, “Project management is the wave of the future.” The increasing interest in project management has been caused in part by more frequent use of nontraditional teams in the management of contemporary organizations. Membership in project management professional associations is increasing, particularly in the Project Management Institute, the “flagship” of such professional organizations. This membership increase is likely to continue into the future. Attention to the development of the theory and practice of megaprojects will likely gain renewed interest in the future, as emerging nations see the need for such projects in order to provide higher standards of living to their citizenry. The ability to lead projects and other team efforts will likely be a principal consideration in the promotability of managers in the future. Project management will become a distinct career path in organizations of the future. A demonstrated track record in management of successful projects and nontraditional projects will be a prerequisite for promotion to a senior management position in the enterprise of the future. The unanticipated changes of the future in the social, political, economic, technological, and competitive systems will likely bring about some changes in the theory and practice of project management.

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But we should always be reminded that the prediction of the future is easy. Getting that prediction right is the hard part. It is even harder to provide the leadership of the enterprise to capitalize on that future.

22.17 ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION The following additional sources of project management information may be used to complement this chapter’s topic material. This material complements and expands on various concepts, practices, and the theory of project management as it relates to areas covered here. ●

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Elvin Isgrig, “Developing Project Management Skills for the Future,” chap. 22 in David I. Cleland (ed.), Field Guide to Project Management (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1997). Seth Lubove, “Destroying the Old Hierarchies,” and Larry Martin and Paula Green, “Gaining Project Acceptance,” in David I. Cleland, Karen M. Bursic, Richard Puerzer, and Alberto Y. Vlasak, Project Management Casebook, Project Management Institute (PMI). (First published in Forbes, June 3, 1996, pp. 62–70 and Civil Engineering, August 1995, pp. 51–53.) ”Project Management Research at the Turn of the Millennium,” Proceedings, PMI Research Conference 2000, Paris, France, June 21–24, 2000. This conference was a “first of its kind” in the field of project management. Fifteen invited papers and 30 contributed papers were presented dealing with research initiatives of the past, present, and future. A reading of these proceedings, along with some reflective thinking, should provide valuable insight into what likely changes will occur in the theory and practice of project management in the future. Virginia Postrel, The Future and Its Enemies: The Growing Conflict over Creativity, Enterprise, and Progress (New York: Simon & Schuster Trade Paperbacks, 1999). The author talks about the future of economic prosperity, technological progress, and cultural innovation—and says that understanding these forces depends upon embracing principles of choice and competition. Postrel readily notes that we cannot manage tomorrow by acting today. This book is intellectually sweeping and reader-friendly. She argues that if we do not meet the future in the proper spirit, we will miss its benefits, or be run over by it. This book will also provoke one into thinking about the future—and how we can better prepare to meet that future. As members of the project community read this book, they should ask themselves the question, What is in this book that can help me to better understand the future of project management, and how to prepare for that future? William J. Swanston and William C. Carney, “Institutionalizing Project Management: A Necessity for Project Management to Provide Value and Thrive in the Coming Century,” Proceedings, 28th Annual Project Management Institute, September 29–October 1, 1997 Seminars/Symposium, Chicago, p. 530. This brief article deals with the subject of the “institutionalization” of project

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management—a subject that has received considerable attention in recent times when the future of project management is presented. The authors state that such institutionalization requires a dedicated long-term commitment by both the organization and its project management community. When a project management system is so converted, its value to the organization can have far-reaching implications. Jeffrey K. Pinto (ed.), “The Future of Project Management,” in The Project Management Institute Project Management Handbook (San Francisco: JosseyBass, 1998). The author asks the question, “What is the future of project management?” He then admits that we have no more prescient crystal ball than do others. Pinto offers some suppositions based on our experience and the state of the world in which project management is found. He sees a bright future for the expanding role of project management on a worldwide basis. N. M. Barnes and S. H. Wearne, “The Future for Project Management,” International Journal of Project Management, vol. II, issue 3, 1993. The book in which this article appears presents a view of what major project management may be like in the future. An examination of 4th edition chaps. 21–27 presents the demands communities around the world may put upon groups of people who are capable of mounting and completing major projects. Factors likely to be the basis of successful and unsuccessful projects are listed. It is suggested that experience and expertise in project risks will become recognized at higher and higher levels in business.

22.18 DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. On the basis of some of the general predictions of changes in the future, what is your prediction of the future of project management? Of team management? 2. Select an industry and a few of the major products and services of that industry. What are some of the likely changes in those products and services caused by genetic changes in the marketplace? 3. What have been some of the major changes in the theory and practice of the management discipline in the past 30 years? How has the project management discipline been impacted by those changes? 4. What has been the cause of the role change of the traditional first-level “boss” or supervisor? What further changes might be anticipated in this role in the future? 5. Discuss the implications of the statement: “The future comes like a funeral gone by.” (Edmund Gosse, 1849–1928, The White Throat.) 6. What is the important message in the quote: “You can never plan the future by the past?” (Edmund Burke, 1729–1797, letter to a member of the National Assembly, 1791.) 7. From the personal perspective of the reader, what are some of the likely generic trends that may impact your future career and retirement?

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8. In this chapter, it was suggested that the root cause of major changes likely to happen in the future could be traced to the probable increases in the world’s population. Discuss the rationale behind this statement. 9. What are some of the leading changes likely to impact project management in the future? What forces and factors will cause these changes? 10. What is meant by the statement, “In the last 10 years project management has moved out of its traditional redoubts?” 11. What are some of the likely forces that will increase or decrease membership in the existing project management professional organizations? What is the likelihood of new associations appearing in the field of project/team management? 12. Select a geographic area, such as the Far East, and identify some of the megaprojects that are likely to come forth in that area. Why are these megaprojects coming forth? Be specific!

22.19 USER CHECKLIST 1. Is any attempt made by your organization to develop and implement a rigorous process to identify and predict some of the major future trends likely to impact your company? 2. What are some of the likely specific future market changes that could impact the existing products and services of your organization? 3. Has anyone been designated a focal point in your organization to identify and track the relevant environmental changes that could impact the well-being of your enterprise? If such an individual has been appointed, how well has that person discharged his or her responsibility in this regard? 4. What is the means of translating expected future environmental trends into the strategic planning process of your organization? If such a process exists, how effective is this process? 5. What future trends in global population will likely impact the demand for your company’s products and services? 6. The demand for the products and services of some companies is directly impacted by changes in the development of technology by competitors. Is this the case regarding your company? Why or why not? 7. What are some of the likely changes in your enterprise that will affect the manner in which project management is applied to the management of product, service, and organizational process change in your enterprise? 8. Do the “general managers” of your company understand the importance of having an appreciation of project management as a means for managing changes in the enterprise? Why or why not? 9. Are there any areas in your company where the use of project management or alternative team management would likely pay off? Why or why not?

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10. What are some of the summary strengths and weaknesses of the practice of project management in your enterprise? If there are such weaknesses, are strategies being developed to rectify those weaknesses? 11. Does a process exist in your company to determine the strengths and weaknesses of competitors and the prediction of the likely trends in competitive performance in the future? 12. What are the major likely trends in project management presented in this chapter that will have the greatest impact on your enterprise?

22.20 PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT 1. There is unprecedented change facing all organizations today. 2. Project management has impacted the evolution and practice of the management discipline. 3. The use of project teams, as well as nontraditional teams, has provided a major means for contemporary organizations to deal with change in their competitive environments. 4. Project management will grow in importance throughout the world as a means for dealing with change. 5. The strategic and operational management of technology through projects will be a key pacing factor in the enterprise’s ability to offer new products and services.

22.21 PROJECT MANAGEMENT SITUATION— WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? Throughout history noted people have thought about the future, and have written or spoken some elegant words about the hereafter. A few of these thoughts are provided below: “You can never plan the future by the past.” (EDMUND BURKE) “The best of prophets of the future is the past.” (SIR WILLIAM HENRY MAULE) “The Future comes like an unwelcome guest.” (EDMUND GOSSE) “I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate.” (SIR ARTHUR WING PINERO) “If we open a quarrel between the past and the present, we shall find that we have lost the future.” (WINSTON SPENCER CHURCHILL) “The enemies of the Future are always the very nicest people.” (CHRISTOPHER MORLEY)

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“The future is something which everyone reaches at the rate of sixty minutes an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” (CLIVE STAPLES LEWIS) “The wave of the future is coming and there is no fighting it.” (ANNE MORROW [MRS. CHARLES] LINDBERGH)

22.22 STUDENT/READER ASSIGNMENT Given this sample of words about the future and the predictions about the future of project management offered in this chapter, the students/readers are requested to identify a potential project. This project should have a future life cycle of at least 10 years, and the students/readers should have personal knowledge of the project or be able to find out about the project by perusing the literature. Identify and describe the likely future changes that could impact this project.

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