Thayer Indonesia: Terrorist Bombings

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Background Briefing: Terrorist Bombings in Indonesia Carlyle A. Thayer July 18, 2009

[client name deleted] I'm writing concerning the recent attacks in Jakarta, Indonesia. It's surprising that it happened after a very peaceful election, and during the past few years there was no major attacks in this Muslim country. The following are some questions that need to be answered: Who is behind the attack? Why? Why now? What does it mean for the policy of President Yudhoyono in the future? How about the US reaction? How will the Australian government react after the bombing?

ANSWER: Indonesia is once again the victim of terrorist attacks after a four-year period of peace. On Friday suicide bombers struck the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels located in Jakarta’s main business district. Preliminary reports from police indicate that eight people including two bombers were killed and over sixty injured. The bombings are a major blow to Indonesia’s prestige coming so soon after the country’s second successful presidential election. The immediate impact of these bombings will be to raise concern about the security of foreigners living and working in Indonesia. Both bomb attacks came during the breakfast period when visiting businessmen were discussing commercial deals with their local contacts. It is too early to be definitive about who is responsible for the latest terrorist outrage. No group has claimed responsibility. Most speculation has centred on an extremist Islamist group known as Jemaah Islamiyah or JI. But the mainstream JI leadership has disavowed violence and is unlikely to be directly involved in the present bombings. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has suggested that the bombings may have been perpetuated by persons who were disgruntled over losing in the recently held national elections. He claimed that threats were made against him during the election campaign. Preliminary reports seem to suggest that a terrorist group checked into the JW Marriott Hotel and assembled their bombs on site. They then carried out two coordinated attacks within ten minutes of each other by suicide bombers. So far there is conflicting evidence over how sophisticated the bombs were. Both were set off inside the hotels and were directed at restaurants. In the past JI used car bombs detonated from outside. This modus operandi has led security specialists to focus on radical splinter groups who may once have been part of JI. A key figure is Malaysian bomb-maker Noordin Mohammed Top who planned the bombings of the Marriott Hotel in 2003, the attack outside the Australian Embassy in 2004, and the second Bali bombings in 2005. Top has been on the run from police ever since. But Indonesia is also host to many small extremist groups who could easily acquire the skills to set off relatively unsophisticated backpack bombs. So far there are few clues as to why the bombings took place when they did. A few months ago when Indonesia executed the Indonesian terrorists who carried out the 2002 Bali bombings, their supporters vowed revenge. This is one possibility. Others have speculated that the target was the Manchester United Football Club which was due to stay at the Ritz-

2 Carlton before playing a friendly match. In this case, the terrorists may have been motivated by the publicity they would have gained from such a high profile attack. President Yudhoyono was re-elected on a commitment to restore peace and economic growth to Indonesia. He will now be challenged to fulfill his pledge to identify and bring to justice those responsible. The Indonesian National Police have a good track record in this respect. Every terrorist bombing leaves forensic and other evidence behind. The discovery of explosives and other material in the bombers’ hotel room is likely to lead to intelligence that can be followed up. Both the United States and Australian governments have offered their support. In the past both the FBI, the Australian Federal Police and other security agencies have provided vital technical support to their Indonesian counterparts. Indonesia is likely to accept these offers of assistance. President Obama, who once lived in Indonesia, has high prestige in Indonesia unlike his predecessor. And the general public is also opposed to terrorist bombings because Muslim Indonesians are the main victims.

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