Sustaining Humanity: An Outline

SUSTAINING HUMANITY: AN OUTLINE

By Dick Watkins

ƒ This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License, 2009. For details go to the following website:

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CONTENTS Foreword

Page 3

II. Summary

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III. Sustaining Humanity: Facts to Remember and Actions to Take

5

I.

A. Human Physical Welfare

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1.0 Food

5

2.0 Water

7

3.0 Shelter

8

4.0 Energy

9

5.0 Climate Change and Pollution

11

6.0 Population

14

7.0 Poverty

15

8.0 Health and Longevity

15

9.0 Economy

16

10.0 Ecosystems and Sustainability

16

11.0 Security

18

12.0 Catastrophic Failure

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B. Human Contentment

19

1.0 Spirituality and Moral Compass

19

2.0 Social Connectedness

19

C. Human Freedom

20

1.0 Education

20

2.0 Freedom

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IV. System Assessment & Intervention for Sustained, Human Well-Being

21

1.0 System Assessment

22

2.0 System Intervention

27

3.0 Sojourners Are We

31

V. References

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I FOREWORD In early 2008, I started a journey seeking a project for the “common good“ that used my skill-set and my interests. After a friend questioned the concept of climate change I started reading about it including the work of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I was fascinated by the experimental data the scientists had collected, and started to save some of the key plots that convinced me that climate change resulting from human activity was real and significant. From the data and the resultant models, there could be dire consequences to humanity and all other life forms on this planet if we don’t respond to the conclusions and abate the human causes of climate change and global warming. Next I read a book entitled “Energy Victory” by Dr. Robert Zubrin. It had a lasting impact on me because of the vast and varied amount of information on the technical and political aspects of energy. I first thought that he had a solution by using flex-fuel vehicles that would be powered by gasoline/ethanol/methanol mixtures. When it became clear to me that we were trading fuel for food with corn ethanol production, it no longer seemed like an appropriate solution. I also have studied Mr. T. Boon Pickens’ plan, and am heartened by an eighty-year-old man trying to make a difference. The plan has great merit in reducing our dependency on foreign oil in the short-term by utilizing our vast Great Plains for generating renewable, carbon-neutral electricity utilizing wind power, and using natural gas to fuel public transportation and trucking fleets until renewable fuels are available. Reading “Common Wealth” by renowned economist, Dr. Jeffery Sachs, broadened my understanding of Earth and its complexity. The data that were included gave great credence to his perspective and recommendations. Then reading “Plan B 3.0” by Dr. Lester Brown, environmentalist, convinced me that the complexities and interrelationship of the parameters of our planet needs the involvement of all of us for the survival of humanity and the planet’s other life forms. Reading about social entrepreneurs supported by Mr. Bill Drayton’s Ashoka and Mohammed Yunus’ book entitled “Creating a World Without Poverty,” I began to think more broadly about the human condition and what humanity calls our home. That caused me to reflect on what my responsibility is for our Earth, and what leads to human well-being and biodiversity. Biodiversity is assumed to be important because of its {a} regulatory function for production (e.g., fertility of soils, pollinators of plants) and services (e.g., purification of air and water); {b} economic function (e.g., food, clothing, timber); and {c} scientific (e.g., understanding ecology and the genome). Then I read the comprehensive work done in the “Millennium Ecosystem Assessment” (2005). http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx It is highly recommended for more in-depth reading as are all the books mentioned above. In addition the following are highly recommended: “The Bridge at the Edge of the World,” (2008) by Dr. James Gustave Speth, “Limits to Growth” (2004) by Dr. Donella Meadows et al., “Earth: The Sequel” 3

by Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn (2008), “Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead,” by Dr. Paul Raskin et al., “Hot, Flat and Crowded” by Thomas Friedman (2008) and “The Black Swan” by Nissim Nicholas Taleb (2007). The product of the above reading and reflecting is this brief distillation of some important facts about our planet, and the actions we residents should take whether it is within our immediate family, the local level, provincial level, nation-state or across the planet. A consensus must be reached on appropriate plans, and actions to take, or our species will experience escalating calamity. Pollution will cause irreversible loss in our planet’s ecosystem. This report is not original research and the “facts” are from general reading, many with references for more in-depth study. Some will consider it a literature survey, and others a synthesis report, which include judgments and conclusions. The facts always should be questioned because even in peer review literature, the facts are not always correct. It is written through the lens of the author’s worldview so a critical eye should be part of the reader’s perspective. This monograph is meant for general audiences that want to learn, reflect and question the “facts.” It is the author’s hope that motivated citizens will want to take some action. This is a living document that will be revised, as there becomes more clarity.

II. SUMMARY After studying the elements that contribute to humanity’s “joy and despair” and the complex interactions among these elements, it is mandatory that we take immediate steps to live within the bounds of the Earth system to ensure a continuing legacy for humanity. Human well-being requires that the developed nations provide funding, technology and human services to the developing countries so that hopelessness, chaos and hostility will be replaced with interdependency. A systems perspective is used to make a qualitative assessment of priorities for decision-making on achieving sustained, human well-being while keeping in mind that prediction of the future is difficult because of unforeseen, high consequence events. The solution(s) require preparedness, a paradigm shift in human values from consumption to sustainability and system interventions to create an effective means of sustaining humanity.

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III. SUSTAINING HUMANITY: FACTS TO REMEMBER AND ACTIONS TO TAKE The goal of this section is to give the reader an overview of the elements or attributes that contribute to human well-being, some positive and others negative, and actions that should be taken to enhance the “common good” and provide “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” for humanity. There are sixteen elements or attributes that are included. More comprehensive information is available in references that are listed for each element. Additional attributes or parameters may need to be added to be all-inclusive. In referencing philosopher Sir Anthony Kenny, Dr. John Stutz proposed that human well-being or the quality of life could be classified into three broad categories: {A.} Welfare (physical health), {B.} Contentment (satisfaction with life) and {C.} Freedom. 1 This monograph uses these three sub-categories. Section III focuses on the individual elements as “silos,” (i.e., assumes elements are independent of each other), but also covers some of their “interdependence” for clarity. Dr. Medard Gabel, 2 who is developing TM EarthGame, has a short video on his website that gives a lucid introduction to many of the attributes that are discussed below. http://www.bigpicturesmallworld.com/movies/introB.html The “Big Picture Small World” Home Page given in the reference has other videos that are pertinent. Section IV will demonstrate the interdependency of the elements of Section III as part of an assessment to estimate the larger contributors to the quality of life. Section IV will also show the best ways to intervene in the Earth system to sustain humanity. A. HUMAN PHYSICAL WELFARE 1.0 < FOOD > 1.1 FACTS 1) Humanity needs carbohydrates, protein and fats in our diet to be healthy. Carbohydrates are grown on agricultural lands that produce grains, fruits and vegetables. Proteins are obtained from animals (e.g., cattle, poultry, eggs, milk, and fish) and soybeans. Fats in our diet are from animals and nuts. 2) Food sourcing is a complex issue because of conflict with other human needs including: {a} other land uses, (e.g., urbanization and crop-based transportation fuels); {b} water availability; {c} climate change; {d} biodiversity (e.g., over-fishing of oceans for specific fish); and {e} population growth. (Humankind needs land to live on as well as food to eat, which results in a positive feedback mechanism {self-reinforcing or accelerating}, which requires even more land). 3) Food productivity has increased many-fold due to technological advancements including {a} high yielding seeds, {b} fertilizers, {c} pesticides, {d} irrigation, {e} no-till planting, {f} fish farming, and {g} feed-lot nourishment of animals. 5

4) With earlier maturing seeds double-cropping has been accomplished in China (winter wheat and corn), India (wheat and rice) and US (winter wheat and soybeans). 1 5) About 900 million people are hungry in 2007, which is a 50 million increase over 2006 resulting from increased food prices. 1 Ninety percent of the hungry live in developing countries. 6) Food consumption is too high for about one billion people in the developed countries. 6) Cattle consume 7 kilograms of grain per kilogram of weight gain, which is very food and energy inefficient. (Note: Actually 13 kilograms of grain consumption are required per kilogram of “edible” meat since almost half of the weight gain is skeletal and fat.) Hogs eat 3 kilograms of grain per kilogram of weight gain, poultry 2 kilograms/kilogram of weight gain and herbivorous, farmed fish < 2 kilograms/kilogram of weight gain. Herbivorous fish include catfish, tilapia and carp. 2 7) The “true” cost of meat does not include the environmental costs (e.g., fresh water for the grain growth and industrial processing waste of the feed grains and livestock that are not priced into the product). 3 8) There are more than 400 ocean dead zones worldwide that kill fish because of oxygen-depletion caused by fertilizer run-off from the planet’s farmland. This marine ecosystem stressor is comparable to over-fishing of the oceans. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone caused by the Mississippi River covers an area the size of New Jersey. 4 9) One third of the global population doesn’t get enough iodine in their diet, which lowers their mental IQ. This is particularly a problem for births where the mother is iodine deficient. Iodized salt is an inexpensive micronutrient that will benefit developing countries. 5 1.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by 2015 {United Nations Millennium Development Goal – MDG}. 6 2) To improve health and to conserve worldwide food supply Americans should move down the food chain, as people in developing countries start moving up the food chain. Meats such as fish and poultry provide a more healthy diet than red meat like beef. Many in developed countries should reduce their daily caloric intake. 3) Vegetarians and vegans are at the bottom of the food chain, and lower the average human food footprint on the planet. Consider being a vegetarian or vegan. 4) Protect the biodiversity of our planet by closely monitoring both ocean and land based species. 5) Food security must be a priority for the US and all world governments because of our “overpopulated, climate-changing and water-scarce world.” 7 It will become clear that many of these human requirements to be discussed will cause or contain positive feedback loops or will self-reinforce the parameter, and make the circumstances even worse or better depending on the parameter. {Note: In systems analysis a positive feedback loop amplifies the effect of the element. A negative feedback or self-correcting loop would dissipate the effect of the parameter.}

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2.0 < WATER > 2.1 FACTS 1 , 2 1) The oceans contain 97.25% of the planet’s water. The remaining water is fresh water that is stored in {a} Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers (2.05%), {b} groundwater aquifers (0.68%) and {c} surface water (lakes, rivers and soil moisture) and the atmosphere contain the remaining (.02%). 2) Seventy percent of all human water use is for agriculture, 20% is for industrial use and 10% for residential use. 3) Sustainable, safe drinking water is not available for 1.1 billion people. 4) Fresh water is a $400 billion per annum global industry; third largest behind electricity and oil. 3 5) The world-wide privatization of fresh water is happening quickly. 3 4) Lakes are disappearing because of water needs for agriculture (e.g., Lake Chad in Central Africa and the Aral Sea in Central Asia 4 ). 5) Rivers in Asia (from west to east including the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow 5 ) are likely to become seasonal because of the disappearance of the Himalayan and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau glaciers over the next fifty years. (Look at the glaciers and rivers on Google Earth.) 6) Ground water aquifers are being “mined” (i.e., water withdrawn faster than being replenished) all over the planet. China and India are among the countries of increasing water stress. (They are listed because they account for 37% of the Earth’s population.) Drilling for water becomes more and more costly. 7) Forty percent of the arable land in Asia is already utilizing irrigation. 6 8) Competition for surface water and groundwater aquifers are both intranational and international, which leads to conflict due to water scarcity. It will only get worse as population grows. In the US the Chattahoochee River, with headwaters in Georgia, has caused water-sourcing problems for growing populations in Georgia, Alabama and Florida. Similarly, the Southwestern US, which has had dramatic population increases, will have increasing water scarcity issues. The Colorado River is the source, which gets most of its water from melting winter snows in the Rocky Mountains. 7 The Nile River in Africa is an example of international conflict over water among the countries of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. 9) Desalination of ocean water is not a large-scale economic option except in an energy-rich region near the coast like the Arab Middle East. 10) Water scarcity leads to food scarcity and conflict. (This is one example of the interdependency of various elements or parameters of our planet.) 2.2 ACTION PLAN 1 , 2 1) Achieve safe drinking water across the planet. At least reduce by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water by 2015 (MDG). {1.7 million die annually from diarrhea caused by water contaminated with human feces.} 2) “More crop per drop 8 .” Obtain financial support for converting worldwide irrigation farming to drip irrigation. Drip irrigation systems (DIS) can increase the productivity of irrigated lands by saving significant amounts of water or increasing productivity of arid lands. Major savings on agrochemicals quantities required per hectare (e.g., fertilizers and pesticides) 7

are realized as an additional benefit for drip irrigation. Cost effective systems will vary from developed countries to developing countries. The “true” cost of water, like other natural resources, should be part of the calculation of the payback time for the drip irrigation investment. 9 , 1 0 , 1 1 , 1 2 3) World-wide governance of fresh water should be considered. Sign the petition to add Article 31 to the United Nations “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” that was ratified by the UN General Assembly on 12/10/1948. 1 3 , 1 4 4) Increase “virtual” water through increased international trade of food to mitigate water-forced food scarcity. 1 5 5) Mine the “frozen” water from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets before they melt or slide into the ocean. (Tongue-in-cheek) 3.0 < SHELTER > 3.1 FACTS 1 , 2 , 3 1) The world faces another looming challenge, the rise of an impoverished urban underclass with about one billion people living in slums or squatter communities around the world. An additional one billion rural residents in developing countries live in unhealthy housing conditions. 2) With globalization there is a mass migration of people in developing countries from rural to urban areas in hopes of finding jobs. Many older urban areas are encircled by squatters’ settlements (e.g., Caracas, Venezuela – 52% of the population; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania - 49%; Karachi, Pakistan - 40%; and Mumbai, India – 6 million people.) The housing is often made of flimsy materials such as cardboard and sheet metal. 3) The squatter settlements have unhealthy living conditions including unsafe water, lack of sanitation, poor food preparation/storage areas and no garbage pick-up. The people live in crowded spaces, which lead to the rapid spread of communicable diseases; and they have poor in-door air quality (burning dung, wood and coal for cooking) that leads to respiratory diseases. 4) With the great rural to urban migration that is in process, it is estimated that China will need to build 200 million housing units in urban areas over the next couple of decades. For perspective that is twice the number of existing housing units in the United States. 5) There is a clear relationship between poor housing and poor health. 3.2 ACTION PLAN 2 , 3 1) Financial assistance is needed to assist squatter communities to have better shelter and infrastructure, which will improve housing as well as health conditions. Freedom to develop creative housing solutions is an important part of the puzzle. 2) Developing countries need to utilize sustainable urban development methods to transition their populations from rural to urban living.

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4.0 < ENERGY > 4.1FACTS 1 , 2 1) Fossil fuels have provided much of humanity’s energy over the millennia. 2) In 2008 the US used 25% of the world’s energy, and had only 4% of the world’s population. 3) The world’s energy consumption is as follows: {a} 40% for transportation, {b} 40% for electric power generation and {c} 20% for various residential and industrial applications besides electricity. 3 4) The US reached peak oil production in 1971, at which time we imported about 25% of our needs. In 2008 we imported almost 70% of our oil and gasoline. 5) Since oil is a global commodity, oil consumption in the US is dependent upon politically volatile areas (eg, Middle East and Venezuela). 6) The US uses much of its military spending to ensure that US/EU have oil imports protected to meet our consumption needs. 7) Oil is priced in dollars, but it may be priced in Euros or an international currency in the future. 8) “Big Oil” (publicly traded international companies) pumps 10% of the today’s global oil, and “Big Sovereign State” (including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Venezuela, etc.) pumps 90% of the oil. “Big Sovereign State” is the “root cause” of high oil prices, and “Big Oil” is a beneficiary of the global market economy. 9) Global peak oil will likely be reached at 95 M barrels/day by 2015-2020. Peak oil may have already been reached at 87 M barrels/day. 10) Fifty percent of US electricity generation is from coal. Coal is the worst of the fossil fuels for producing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other pollutants such as mercury. 11) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) process for coal reacts water {H 2 O} with coal to produce carbon dioxide {CO 2 } and hydrogen {H 2 }. The H 2 is burned in a gas turbine to generate clean electricity. The CO 2 would have to be captured and sequestered to prevent GHG emissions. 4 This process has been demonstrated only at the pilot plant scale. 12) Buildings account for 39% of total U.S. energy consumption (more than the transportation sector) and 71% of the electricity useage according to the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC). 5 13) China is bringing on coal-fired power plants at the rate of one per week, and since 2006 has been the world’s largest emitter of CO 2 , contributing about 20% per year. 14) Energy alternatives for global needs must be on a fast track with developing countries like China and India needing large quantities as they move from agrarian societies to industrialized nations. 15) Global social chaos and expanded wars are likely if we don’t act quickly. 16) The world currently uses 13 terawatts (13 trillion watts of power; energy/unit time), and it is predicted to double to 26 terawatts by 2050. That is equivalent to the addition of one nuclear power plant per day until 2050. We need an Energy Technology (ET) revolution, and the US should take the lead. 6 17) World-wide investments in renewable energy increased from $92B in 2006 to $148B in 2007. ($98B for generation and $50B in development and manufacturing scale-up) Europe is the leader in this investment. 7 9

4.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Drill for oil on the offshore continental shelf and in Alaska (ANWR) using environmentally friendly technologies (oil production in ~ 10 years). Use the oil as feedstock for petrochemicals and fertilizer, not for transportation or power generation. 2) US Government mandates a phase-in of $0.25/gallon/year over ten years to achieve $2.50/gallon additional taxes on gasoline (EU model). The resultant revenue should be directed to public/private partnerships for renewable energy sourcing, energy storage (needed for wind and solar electricity generation) and electric-grid optimization (“smart grid”) as well as mass transit to achieve US energy independence by 2025. Current US Government tax is $.184/gallon. Reduce individual and corporate income taxes at the same time. 3) Improve energy efficiency through green design of new buildings and green retrofit of existing buildings. Mandate energy efficiency criteria for future public-owned buildings {government and public school buildings at all levels}. 4) To improve the energy efficiency of liquid fuel use the US Government should expand incentives to consumers to purchase hybrid vehicles. This is important, but only a short-term, transitional solution. 5) Private transportation should become mainly plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) by 2020. The Chevy Volt PHEV is to be on the market in 2010. {Focus on battery design and manufacturing to achieve low cost, 60mile range/charge batteries. This alternative is valid only if increased electric power generation capacity can be achieved through low CO 2 emissions technologies. 8 } 6) A fascinating alternative to PHEV is a battery-powered electric vehicle (EV) that has a large plug-in charging system associated with a densely populated area. This approach is being pursued by an Israeli company, Better Place, whose CEO is Shai Agassi. They are partnering with Renault to provide the vehicles and electric power companies to supply the energy. The first three locations are Israel (solar power), Denmark (wind power), and California Bay Area (unknown power source). The batteries will be Li ion batteries. 9 6) Utilize liquid natural gas (LNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative fuel for the trucking industry. Thirty percent of US highway fuel consumption is from trucking. This is part of the T. Boone Pickens Plan. 1 0 CNG also could be used for buses, taxis, fleet vehicles, railroads and private vehicles. 1 1 LNG could be used for urban buses. LNG is not a good option for private vehicles because of their intermittent use, and the requirement to keep the LNG storage tank at cryogenic temperatures. Natural gas is as safe as gasoline or diesel fuels for transportation. 1 2 {For additional information about natural gas safety see footnote included with reference 12} Natural gas should be part of an interim solution for energy independence. 7) Railroads should be electrified and expanded especially for the transporting of products. (This requires expansion of low CO 2 emissions electricity generation capacity.) 8) New electricity generation capacity should be renewable sources such as nuclear, wind, solar, enhanced geothermal, wave, etc. {Fifty percent of current electricity generation in the US is from coal-fired power plants.} The process of carbon collection and sequestration 1 3 (CCS) of the CO 2 power 10

plant emissions doesn’t appear to be cost effective and technically viable for the vast quantities of CO 2 underground storage required for the world’s coalfired power plants emissions. However, if successful, it would serve as a good transition until renewable energy sources can be brought on-stream to replace all the coal-fired power plants by about 2050. Natural gas is an alternative for electricity generation, which is less polluting (SOx, NOx and mercury) and creates less GHGs than coal per kilowatt-hour generated. 9) Investigate algae as means of carbon capture of CO 2 as well as recycling of the product as a feedstock for liquid bio-fuels. 1 4 Algae have been on Earth for hundreds of millions of years, and the microscopic, single-cell plants are the fastest growing form of life on the planet. They are the Earth’s most efficient converters of CO 2 to oxygen and biomass using photosynthesis. 10) The Council on Competitiveness, a US non-profit made up of leaders from U.S. companies, universities, labor organizations and national laboratories, recommended that President Obama initiate the following 100Day Energy Action Plan for America: “{a} mandate US government purchase products and services to meet the highest energy technology and efficiency standards….; {b} create a $200 billon national “clean energy” bank to support ….sustainable energy solutions…; {c} knit the current patchwork of regulations and oversight into a seamlessly connected electrical power highway that is technologically capable of allowing both on and off ramps for all energy sources thereby securing the national grid …….; {d} develop and utilize all sources of energy in America in a sustainable way……; {e} Fill the workforce pipeline with skilled workers….; and {f} increase R and D….” 1 5 Only a small portion has been initiated in 2009 by the Obama Administration. 5.0 < CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLLUTION > 5.1 FACTS 1) Carbon dioxide [CO 2 ] in the earth’s atmosphere is a green house gas (GHG) that traps heat from the sun and has stabilized temperatures on the planet over the last two billion years to support the evolution of life. 2) The anthropocene era, which started in the late 18 t h century with the invention of the steam engine, is described as the period when humankind started to first have an effect on the earth’s climate and ecosystems. The surface temperature of the earth has been rising since that time. 3) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations released its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in November 2007, Valencia, Spain, which states the following. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.” 1 4) Ice-core samples show that the CO 2 concentration is higher today than it has been in the last 650,000 years. There are peaks and valleys in the concentration of the GHG’s (carbon dioxide [CO 2 ], methane [CH 4 ] and nitrous oxide [N 2 O]) from these data over time, but all are highest now. 2 5) Decreases in the Earth’s orbit around the sun has led to global warming in the past and in turn evaporation of CO 2 from the ocean (analogous to a reduction of CO 2 dissolved in a carbonated beverage as temperature increases) that lead to further global surface temperature increases in a 11

positive or accelerating feedback loop. All the Earth’s ice melted about fifty million years ago. At that time the Indian subcontinent plate moving north at a rate of about 20 cm/year plowed up carbonate sediment from the ocean floor, which released large quantities of CO 2 into the atmosphere, also causing global warming. When the Indian subcontinent eventually slammed into the Asian plate, it caused the buckling of the Asian crust and formation of the Himalayan Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. With diminished CO 2 emissions and an increase in the Earth’s orbit around the sun global cooling was initiated. It took about fifteen million years before ice formed again on Antarctica. 3 6) Today the anthropogenic forcing function (sun’s energy in watts/meter 2 ) for global warming is many times that of the orbit effect. “Global dimming” (caused by atmospheric particulate and pollution) reduces the anthropogenic forcing function in half (i.e., the global temperature rise is only 50% of that calculated if there were not global dimming). 4 7) Thomas Friedman in a talk 5 about his most recent book uses the analogy between the Earth’s temperature change and that of the human body. For example, a change in the body temperature from 98.6 o F to 100.6 o F (increase of 2 o F above normal) a person doesn’t feel very good, but it is not a big problem. However, if their body temperature increased to 102.6 o F (increase of 4 o F or 2 o C above normal) they would have to go to the hospital, and it could be life-threatening. So it is also with the Earth. 8) Melting of polar ice is a positive feedback mechanism for accelerating the temperature rise on earth because of ice’s excellent reflective characteristics of the sun’s energy compared to that of the ocean. 6 9) Another positive feedback mechanism for global warming results from deforestation, drought and fire in rain forests. Deforestation is one of the major causes of CO 2 concentration increases in the atmosphere. Combustion of the forest creates CO 2 and the elimination of the trees removes a source of CO 2 sequestration, a double whammy. 10) A third positive feedback or self-reinforcing or accelerating mechanism for global warming is the melting of the tundra, which releases methane (CH 4 ), a gas 21 times more effective as a GHG than CO 2 . 6 The tundra contains organic material that has rotted, and has been frozen for over several hundred thousand years. Once the tundra starts to thaw, the methane evaporates, which increases the methane concentration in the atmosphere. In turn that increases the surface temperature of Earth, so more of the tundra melts and more of the GHG evaporates. It’s a vicious circle. 11) The ocean absorbs CO 2 from the atmosphere, but as it does, the ocean becomes more acidic and eventually its carrying capacity is reduced because the solubility of CO2 decreases as pH is lowered (more acidic). This is another self-reinforcing or accelerating mechanism that can lead to global warming. 12) Consequences of earth surface temperature rise will be vast including the following: {a} more severe weather events; {b} expansion of arid land (e.g., Sahel region of Africa); {c} melting of glaciers that will reduce global fresh water availability (e.g., in India, Pakistan and China for crops and human use when the Asian glaciers are gone); {d} ocean rise causing displacement of humanity (e.g., Bangladesh); {e} spread of tropical diseases further away from the equator (e.g., malaria); {f} extinction of plant and 12

animal species due to inability to adapt to climate change. We are seeing this already in hurricanes, forest fires, droughts, floods and diseases in trees. 5.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Reduce GHG emissions from humankind activity so as to stabilize CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere at ~350ppm. Priorities on resources for technological development and implementation, and cooperation among nation-states will be required. We must transition to renewable energy sources that do not generate GHG’s and conserve energy through sustainable design solutions and mass transit. The US as the only superpower and the second largest emitter of GHG gases into the atmosphere, should take the lead in this endeavor. 2) Developed countries assist developing countries in implementation. 3) Stop deforestation and plant trees. {Tropical deforestation is the 2 n d largest cause of global warming after burning fossil fuels.} 4) Establish a “carbon cap-and-trade” system in a worldwide market economy overseen by the United Nations. In cooperation government entities would mandate the maximum emissions allowable [cap] by year, and free-market entities would develop appropriate technologies to meet the caps, or would buy credits [trade] from other business entities that have reduced emissions below mandated requirements or pay the government for not meeting the mandated levels. In a free-market the best, proven emissions technologies become a source of income for those business entities with the know-how.) The cap-and-trade system initiated in the EU in 2005 has not been successful at reducing GHGs because the credits were “free” to the largest polluters (grandfather clause: you are not penalized for being a large polluter in the past). Also, it did not cover the smaller entities that contribute about 50% to the EU emissions. The carbon credits must be auctioned off to the highest bidder. In 2006 California passed a law for a cap and trade process that mandates a 25% reduction in GHG’s from 2006 levels by 2020. This law also applies to electricity purchased by California entities from other Western states. 5) As a preferred alternative to 4) above, initiate Peter Barnes’ idea 7 of a “carbon cap-and-dividend” system which would include the “true” cost of the products we consume. This idea is based on the principle that the citizenry owns the atmosphere and that if an entity or household wants to add carbon to the atmosphere it has to pay to do it. Those with a small carbon footprint would receive a monthly dividend, while those with a large carbon footprint would make a carbon emissions payment into a trust fund (run by government or a nonprofit entity) that would redistribute the dividends to individuals. The “sky” trust would auction off the carbon emission permits annually, and there would be fewer each year (reducing GHGs). The cost to the carbon emitters and their customers would go up, but the dividend benefit would also increase. Therefore, electricity, natural gas and gasoline prices would increase, but end-users would get increased dividends to compensate for the price increases. Through market forces customers would also be encouraged to reduce their carbon footprint so as to increase their individual dividend. Democratic processes of the United States could mandate this option, and then eventually try to get it applied worldwide. Dr. George Lakoff describes the concept of everyone owning the air as a 13

“cognitive” policy. 8 Giving a tax rebate instead of a dividend, may have the same economic impact, but the idea of everyone owning the air is a change in our mindset. Could this change in mindset apply also to who owns the water? Privatization is becoming the norm for water. 6.0 < POPULATION > 6.1 FACTS 1 1) The world’s population in 2008 is 6.7 billion people. In the years between 2000 and 2008 the world population grew by 700 million people, which is equivalent to adding the people from two United States or one Europe to the planet. Over the last hundred years the world population has increased by five billion people. 2) Chindia (China + India) contains 37% of the world’s population, Asia 60% and the fifteen largest countries 65%. 2) Since the publication of Dr. Paul Ehrlich’s “Population Bomb” forty years ago, the world population has increased by three billion people. That is equivalent to population growth from the dawn of humankind to 1960. His prediction of mass famine in the 1970’s and 1980’s caused by overpopulation did not occur because of the “green revolution” attributable to tremendous agricultural improvements. The agricultural improvements resulted from high-yield seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation; the later three are under stress now or will be in the near future, as discussed earlier. 3) Both total fertility rate (TFR) and population growth rate increase with increases in the “under-five” mortality rate (data from 150 countries) as shown in scatter plots. 2 Although counterintuitive, high child mortality rate leads to overpopulation of an area or country because the total fertility rate increases at a higher rate than the “under-five” mortality rate. Deteriorating economic conditions result because of people getting a smaller piece of the “acreage pie.” Sub-Saharan Africa has this problem with TFR of greater than five. 4) Although controversial in a few countries, family planning policies, such as providing contraception and women’s health services, empower families to lower the fertility rate. 2 This has been accomplished in much of Asia and North Africa. 5) Much of the developed world and China have a TFR less than two, or below replacement rate. 6.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Increase financial support for family planning services in developing regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. The UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set by the United Nations cannot be achieved unless family planning services are made readily available in the poorest countries. 3 2) Provide funds to achieve the UN Millennium Development Goal of reducing by two thirds (2/3) the mortality rate among children under the age of five by 2015. 4 Achieving this goal should lead to stabilizing the world population which results from the opposite effect of the information presented above in Section 6.1 3). In other words, reducing child mortality rate leads to reduced population growth and population stabilization. 14

7.0 < POVERTY > 7.1 FACTS 1) The World Bank has estimated that 1.4 billion people lived in extreme poverty in 2005 (living on less than $1.25/day/person) compared to 1.9 billion people in 1981. In 2005 a total of 2.6 billion people lived on less than $2/day/person. 1 Therefore, in 2005 forty percent of the world’s population lived in poverty. 2) Poverty has many self-reinforcing (accelerating) or positive feedback mechanisms. It is referred to as the “poverty trap” or the “perfect storm.” A set of small nations—mostly in sub-Saharan Africa—have remained desperately poor while middle-income nations have become wealthier in terms of GDP per capita. 2 The features of the poverty trap include {a} high birth rate, {b} high child mortality rate, {c} water scarcity, {d} nonproductive land, {e} disease, {f} depletion of fish and {g} environmental degradation. These factors prevent economic development for those in extreme poverty, and the gap between the rich and poor grows larger. Hopelessness, violence and conflict result. 2 The Darfur region of western Sudan is a prime example. 7.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Reduce by half the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by 2015. 3 (MDG) 2) Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people by 2015. 3 (MDG) 3) Provide the “seed” money to regions such as sub-Saharan Africa to boost agricultural production like the “green revolution” of India as a start for expanding economic development and self-sufficiency. 8.0 < HEALTH AND LONGEVITY > 8.1 FACTS 1) The average life expectancy in the wealthiest countries is 79 years, while that in Africa is only 45 years. 1 Africa is burdened disproportionately with infectious diseases including HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. 2) Although counterintuitive, high child mortality rates lead to high population growth rates because of high fertility rates. High birthrates result because parents want to be sure they have at least one offspring to take care of them when they are old. There is no government safety net for older people in the developing countries such as Social Security and Medicare as there is in developed countries. 2 3) Due to the vast interconnectivity of humanity the probability of a new pandemic such as avian flu is very likely. 8.2 ACTION PLAN 1) MDGs to be achieved by 2015: {a} reduce by two-thirds the mortality rate for children under five, {b} reduce by three-fourths the maternal mortality ratio, {c} provide universal access to reproductive health, {d} halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and malaria. 3 15

2) Distribute insecticide-treated bed nets to prevent mosquitoes from biting children thus preventing malaria. 3) Eradicate polio. The World Health Organization (WHO), Rotary International, Turner UN Foundation, Gates Foundation and UNICEF are working cooperatively to eliminate the wild poliovirus from the planet. 4) Public health entities must be financially supported to address new viruses that could jump from other species to humans, and then mutate so as to be contagious among humans. The 1918-19 Spanish influenza pandemic would spread much faster today than it did ninety years ago when it killed over 50 million of the world’s population. WHO is very concerned about a pandemic resulting from the H1N1 virus (swine influenza). 9.0 < ECONOMY > 9.1 FACTS 1) The capitalist economic system has provided a vastly improved quality of life for the middle class over the last two centuries in developed countries including the US, Canada, EU and Japan. 2) With globalization the middle class of populous countries of the developing world including China, India, Russia and Brazil desire the same consumption of goods and services that the middle class has enjoyed in the capitalist, developed world. 1 3) A global recession is likely for 2008-09, which may postpone temporarily the increased consumption desires of the developing world. However, with anticipated economic growth in the future for the middle classes of China and India, it would require an eight-fold increase of the current consumption rate of the Earth’s resources to reach parity with the US middle class. 4) Global resources are finite. See Section 11.0 below. 5) In 2003-08 the free-market world economy without significant governance demonstrated that greed and high leveraging of debt instruments led to losses and panic in the financial markets. Actions taken by governments to stabilize the world economy included providing large loans to corporate entities and shared private/government ownership of some corporate entities that had taken on too much risk. These global governance actions may have been necessary, but were they fair and just? 9.2 ACTION PLAN More US and global economic governance must be implemented in the capitalist economic system. Transparency of corporate entities and their financial instruments should be part of this enhanced governance for the common good. 10.0 < ECOSYSTEMS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT > 10.1 FACTS 1) A sustainable society is defined as meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. 1 16

2) Economic growth became the indispensable ideology of governments in the 20 t h Century. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was paramount, and capitalism won the competition against socialism and communism. 2 3) The planet’s “natural capital” (natural resources) is being depleted by humanity at an unsustainable rate. 3 4) The planet’s natural resources are finite. Economic costs are calculated on the basis of human value-add, and do not include the natural resource cost, so the “true” costs are not considered in pricing. 4 5) Albert Einstein said, “The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest” or compound growth rate, which is exponential. It may be the enemy of humanity on our finite planet. 6) The current economic model of continuous growth will not work in the future. A free-market economy (capitalism) is efficient at producing high value-add goods at minimum cost, but at the expense of a widening gap between the rich and the poor. Increasing consumption of goods and services by the wealthy when a finite resource exists, will lead to hostility and chaos on the earth. (Over forty percent of the world’s population lives in poverty.) 7) Dr. Herman Daly’s three laws for material and energy sustainability require economies to meet three criteria: “{a} rates of use of renewable resources do not exceed the rates of regeneration, {b} rates of use of nonrenewable resources do not exceed the rates at which sustainable renewable substitutes are developed and {c} rates of pollution emissions do not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment. 5 8) In 2000 two percent of the world’s population owned 50% of the world’s household assets. The poorest fifty percent of the world’s population owned just one percent of the global household assets. This inequity is not acceptable. 9) Capitalism has many variations across the planet. Unless its free-market aspect that is dominant is restrained it will “guarantee the destruction of the majority of the planet’s diversity, quite probably including us.” 6 10) Adam Smith’s economic model, which states that self-interested individual actions lead to positive outcomes, has worked over the last few centuries. However, another important human characteristic is that people are motivated not only by self-interest, but also by the desire to participate in a larger community. 7 11) Deforestation has many consequences that negatively impact the environment including {a} extinction of species, {b} rainfall redistribution and {c} loss of carbon sequestration and resultant global warming. 12) Companies can reduce their ecological footprint. For example, the movie rental firm Netflix, began to offer movies on-line in 2007, reducing the need for packaging, stores and trips to a rental store. 8 13) Increase penetration of bus rapid transit (BRT) into more cities. 9 It utilizes expedited bus lanes and loading systems that are much cheaper than underground metro systems. Cities already using BRT includes Quito, Bogotá, Jakarta, Beijing and Mexico City. 10.2 ACTION PLAN 1) MDGs to be achieved by 2015: {a} Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs; {b} reverse loss of ecosystems such as forests; and {c} reduce biodiversity loss rate. 17

2) With finite resources a system intervention will be necessary for sustainable economic development. This will be discussed in more detail below. 3) Improve sanitation by considering the use of dry composting toilets, especially where water is scarce. 11.0 < SECURITY > 11.1 FACTS 1) World military expenditures are estimated to have been $1.34 trillion in 2007 (current dollars), which is 2.5% of the world gross product (WGP). The US with $550 billion [constant 2005 dollars] in military expenditures represents about 40% of the total, and the top 15 countries {including UK = $60B, China = $58B, France = $54B [constant 2005 dollars]} represents about 80% of the total. 1 2) Food, water, shelter, health, education, energy and environmental security are very important for the common good of humanity. The costs of these forms of security are small (~$225B/year) compared to that of the military expenditures (~$1.34T/year). 2 , 3 11.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Lobby our governments for a new tax structure that increases the “use taxes” on unsustainable activities like the use of gasoline for transportation, but lowers income taxes. Germany has done this by lowering income taxes, which encourages work, and increasing energy taxes, which discourages energy consumption and the resulting pollution. 2) Divert 15% of the world’s military budget to the long-term security of our planet. Humanity’s food, water, shelter, health, education, energy and environmental security are an excellent way to have cooperation among nation-states and reduce the need for military security. 12.0 < CATASTROPHIC FAILURE > 12.1 FACTS 1) Nuclear proliferation is a serious risk for humankind. Rogue nation-states or terrorist organizations that acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could affect the striving for peace and world interdependency. The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty was established in 1970 and has been signed by 187 nations. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was established to verify through inspections that all nations are in compliance with the Treaty. 1 Biological weapons are another concern. 2) War and genocide become greater risks as the world population grows. 3) Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are inherent in the life of our planet. 4) An asteroid collision with Earth could cause catastrophic damage or extinction of all life forms on the planet, depending upon its mass. Earth is protected by Jupiter, which has many times higher gravitational pull than does Earth, so asteroids or comets are much more likely to hit Jupiter.

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12.2 ACTION PLAN 1) The United Nations needs to be strengthened to provide diplomatic leadership and military assistance to prevent war, genocide or other catastrophic failures on the planet. 2) Continue to reduce nuclear weapons stockpiles on Earth. 3) Improve the predictability of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions through increased knowledge of the geological sciences. 4) Developed countries should partner to provide technology to intercept an asteroid or comet and change its trajectory, if a collision with Earth is eminent. B. HUMAN CONTENTMENT 1.0 < SPIRITUALITY AND MORAL COMPASS > 1.1 FACTS 1) About 85% of the world population has a religious belief. Only 2.5% of the world population consider themselves atheists, while about 12% consider themselves nonreligious, who are mainly agnostics. 1 Nonreligious people are those who derive their worldview and value system primarily from secular and cultural systems rather than traditional religious systems. 2 China and the former Soviet Union contain a majority of the nonreligious. Communism would be one example of a nonreligious, cultural system. 2) Spirituality addresses humanity's ultimate nature and purpose, “not only as material biological organisms, but as beings with a unique relationship to that which is perceived to be beyond both time and the material world.” 3 3) A “moral compass” is what humanity calls its value system to differentiate right from wrong, fair from unfair and just from unjust. 4) The “Golden Rule”, “do unto others, as you would have them do unto you” or “love your neighbor as yourself,” is an expression of a moral value that is understood by 90+% of humanity. However, the understanding doesn’t make it a reality. 1.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Encourage cooperation among religious communities for the “common good.” 2) Promote a healthy approach to giving. 4) A “new consciousness” is needed to make human welfare a reality for all of humanity. 4 2.0 < SOCIAL CONNECTEDNESS > 2.1 FACTS AND IDEAS 1) When the people of a nation-state achieve basic economic needs, their well-being is more dependent on issues such as social connectedness and life purpose and meaning. 1 2) Multiple approaches have been used to characterize human well-being that is more inclusive than an economic parameter such as Gross World Product (GWP) or GDP. Data show that “life satisfaction” (or other similar 19

indices) for developed countries (e.g., USA, UK and Japan) don’t increase as the GDP of the country increases. 2 However, in poorer, developing countries there is a direct correlation of increasing human well-being with increasing GDP. 3) Dr. Paul Raskin envisions a “Great Transition” where a new set of values ascends: {a} human solidarity, {b} quality of life, and {3} respect for nature. In this vision, solidarity is the foundation for a more egalitarian social contract, poverty eradication and democratic political engagement at all levels. Human fulfillment in all its dimensions is the measure of human wellbeing displacing consumerism and the false metric of GDP. An ecological sensibility that understands humanity as part of a wider community of life which is the basis for true sustainability. 3 . 4 4) Our culture has a mentality of “winning” and “control” as evidenced by our sports and hierarchical structures. 2.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Intergovernmental organizations, transnational corporations and civil society act in concert with non-governmental organizations, spiritual communities and other citizen groups to establish policies to encourage human connectedness and meaning in the lives of their citizens and employees. 4 , 5 2) It is critical that there is wide public awareness of the need for a paradigm shift that will propagate values that will enhance the sustainability of the Earth system for future generations. 5 The EU has started down this path. C. HUMAN FREEDOM 1.0 < EDUCATION > 1.1 FACTS 1) Illiteracy is high in developing countries. The World Bank will provide financial assistance to any country that has a plan for universal primary education. 2) Professor Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize Economist, believes that illiteracy and innumeracy are in themselves forms of physical insecurity - which results in inequality between men and women, lack of rights and poor understanding of health issues such as the spread of HIV/AIDS. These result in more deaths and greater hardship than international terrorism. 1 3) From a scatter plot of about 150 countries it can be seen that the higher the percentage of girls in secondary education, the lower the total fertility rate (TFR). 2 1.2 ACTION PLAN 1) MDGs to be achieved by 2015: {a} ensure that all girls and boys complete a full course in primary education, {b} promote gender equality in education and empower women. 2) Adult literacy training should be promoted.

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2.0 < FREEDOM > 2.1 FACTS 1) Human beings “have the right to live their lives and raise their children in dignity, free from hunger and from the fear of violence, oppression, or injustice. Democratic and participatory governance based on the will of the people best assures these rights.” 1 2) Liberty improves human well-being. 3) Accountability is a corollary to freedom of choice. 2.2 ACTION PLAN 1) Provide opportunities for all humanity to have freedom of choice without using war as a tool to achieve it.

IV. SYSTEM ASSESSMENT AND INTERVENTION FOR SUSTAINED, HUMAN WELL-BEING Section IV utilizes the principles of systems analysis to paint a broad-brush description of human well-being (HWB) based on the contributions of the sixteen elements described in Section III. This section also estimates the effect of intervening in the existing system and creating new models for organized human activity. The goal is to achieve sustained, human wellbeing. The pioneering work in the analysis of systems was done by Dr. Jay W. Forrester 1 at MIT and was called systems dynamics. Dr. Donella Meadows et al. published “Limits to Growth” in 1972 utilizing systems modeling techniques developed by Dr. Forrester to make predictions about the Earth’s sustainability. Their forecasts from the computer simulations were controversial. Some believe that modeling of economic and social systems is not feasible because of their complexity. The book’s 30-year update 2 , reinforces their original conclusions on “limits to growth,” in which they predict the global limits will be realized by about 2012 in what they call growth “overshoot and subsequent decline in societal welfare” unless sustainability actions are taken. (Overshoot means to go too far, to go beyond limits accidentally – without intention. 3 ) Economic examples of overshoot and subsequent decline in human welfare in recent years include the “tech bubble” of March 2000 and the current “housing and credit disaster.” Greed has been a major contributor. The book includes their methodology and background for ways to quantify indicators of human well-being and ecological footprint. They use different scenarios for their model (named World3) to simulate human welfare in the 21 s t century. With technology improvements (e.g., pollution abatement, improved resource utilization and improved land yield) they show that the global improvements delay overshoot and collapse of human well-being until later in the 21 s t century, but don’t prevent it. For these scenarios a “food crisis” is usually the reason for collapse. “Markets” (e.g., oil and fisheries) is another factor that contributes to overshoot and collapse of human well21

being. Scenarios that limit growth (e.g., population or per capita industrial output) are also shown to be unsustainable. However, combining the technology and social system mandates 4 does yield a sustainable high human well-being for the average person. Increasing per capita consumption for this later scenario could lead to collapse. Delaying action could be critical. (World3 assumes no war, no conflict, no corruption, no mistakes, and no “black swans.”) Beware! A “black swan” is a term defined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “The Black Swan” 5 to describe a rare, unexpected occurrence that produces a very large consequence on a system or activity. The black swan occurrence may completely negate the art of forecasting and predicting. Black swans are prone to intervene in social and economic systems and provide an unexpected benefit or disaster. Two examples of beneficial black swans that were not predicted include the laser and the internet. They both have had dramatic effects on our economic and social systems, and were achieved by “tinkering,” not planning for technical break-throughs. A negative black swan example was the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on 9/11/2001. Should we have anticipated 9/11 and ensured that all commercial airlines had locked, bulletproof cockpit doors by 9/10/2001? After black swans occur there is a human retrospective distortion that claims that they were predictable. Keep this in mind as you read the following about qualitative assessing the key elements to sustain human well-being. 1.0 < SYSTEM ASSESSMENT > 1.1 DESCRIPTION 1) The purpose of this section is to provide a conceptual description to characterize the complexities of using a systems approach to assess the best ways to achieve human well-being (HWB). It is hoped that system analysis experts with hard data on the algorithms for these elements and their complex interactions will take the challenge to continue to advance our understanding through their mathematical modeling of the system. 2) The sixteen elements described in Section III above have a direct affect on human well-being. Unknown elements that effect HWB, termed “black swans,” 1 may be even more important to the future understanding of this complex system. 3) This global system is full of both positive (self-reinforcing) and negative (self-correcting) feedback loops as have been discussed in Section III. 4) Complicating factors for system assessment include {a} thresholds (sudden displacement of the dependent variable for a small change in one of the independent variables; also referred to as a nonlinear response or exponential change) and {b} time delays (long time constants of the system that makes it difficult to determine “cause and effect” in a complex system). 2 5) Food, water and shelter should be a “right” for all humans, but with a finite planet, there can be scarcity because of many different reasons that have been discussed previously. For sustained, human well-being (HWB) tradeoffs and the discovery of synergies among these different elements are required. 22

1.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE TANGLED WEB 1) Improved models need to be created to attempt a better understanding of our Earth system and its impact on goals such as human well-being. 3 As was stated previously, the best comprehensive model to-date is described in “Limits to Growth” and named World3. 4 This is important literature to read, but be cautious because it is only a model! 2) The purpose of the work below is to estimate which elements make the larger contributions to human well-being so as to have a framework for decision making. Without having actual algorithms that describe the changes in human well-being over large ranges attributable to the sixteen elements, we can only make rough estimates of the element effects. In Figure [1] below it can be seen clearly that the sixteen elements are not independent, but “interdependent” elements. That is, these elements not only directly affect human well-being as was described in Section III, but also affect other elements, which in turn affect human well-being (HWB). Therefore, we are dealing with a very complex system, which could be described as a “tangled web.” 3) It is certain that food, water and health are required for sustaining human life. 4) From an assessment of the tangled web in Figure [1], it is proposed that the contribution to human well-being of each of the interdependent elements is the sum of the following four factors: {1} Is the element necessary to sustain human life? Yes or No. {Represented by Wj as shown in Table [1] and Equation [1] below} plus {2} Description of the dependency of HWB on the element. Is the relationship linear or nonlinear? If nonlinear, does it have an exponential growth effect on HWB or an exponential decay effect on HWB? Figure [2] illustrates these different types of effects. Xj in Table [1] and Equation [1] represents the magnitude of this effect. {For example, food is needed to sustain life, but when there is enough food available for everyone, then food’s importance to HWB declines exponentially (exponential decay). If population grows yearly by a given percentage, it leads to exponential increases in the number of people. As shown in Section III, population grew from 1 billion people in 1900 to 6 billion people in 2000 (exponential growth). Using the rule of 72 and a population growth rate of only 1% per year, the global population would be 12 billion people in 2072 and 24 billion in 2144. These are unsustainable numbers of people on this planet. Therefore, it is important to know the general mathematical relationship between HWB and the element.} plus {3} Elements that have a direct effect on another interdependent element that in-turn affects HWB are also very important; Yj in Table [1] reflects the magnitude of this effect. {Count the number of arrows leaving an element in Figure [1] to determine the magnitude of the Yj} plus {4} Elements that have self-sustaining or accelerating feedback loops with other interdependent elements also are important; Zj in Table [1] represents the magnitude of this effect. Note in Figure [1] that interdependent elements that affect each other (shown as parallel arrows) create self-sustaining, or accelerating feedback loops. For example, energy ÅÆ climate change; ecosystems ÅÆ climate change; poverty ÅÆ population; food ÅÆ energy; education ÅÆ poverty; and education ÅÆ population. That’s what makes these elements so important to human sustainability. 23

Figure [1] The Tangled Web

ECOSYSTEMS 3/1

FOOD 3/1

SECURITY 1/-

SHELTER 2/-

CATASTROPHIC FAILURE 5/-

WATER 5/-

ECONOMY 2/-

CLIMATE CHANGE 8/2

ENERGY 5/2

POVERTY 3/2

HEALTH 1/-

EDUCATION 5/2

SPIRITUALITY 9/POPULATION 3/2

SOCIAL CONNECTEDNESS 5/-

FREEDOM 3/-

Figure [1]: Tangled Web of Interdependent Elements that Affect Human Well-Being (Number of Direct Affects on Other Elements/Self-Reinforcing Feedback Loops)

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Table [1]: Effect of Interdependent Elements on Human Well-Being (HWB) Wj Required to Sustain

j Element

5 Climate Change 6 Population 7 Poverty 8 Health and Longevity 9 Economy 10 Ecosystems/Sustain. 11 Security 12 Catastrophic Failure 13 Spirituality/Morality 14 Social Connectedness 15 Education 16 Freedom

Effect of Increase in Element

Human Life Magnitude on HWB (Yes/No)

1 Food 2 Water 3 Shelter 4 Energy

Xj

Y Y N N N N N Y N N N N N N N N

(Positive/Negative)

+ + + + + + + + + + + +

Elemen t Effec t on HWB:* 1 ) L ine ar ,

Yj

Self-Sustaining No. of Elements or Accelerating Directly Affected Feedback

2 ) E x p D ec a y 3 ) E x p Grow th

by this Element

Exponential Decay

3 5 2 5 8 3 3 1 2 3 1 5 9 5 4 3 62 3.9

Exponential Decay Exponential Decay Estimate Linear Exponential Grow th Exponential Grow th Exponential Grow th Exponential Decay Exponential Decay Estimate Exp Growth Estimate Exp Growth Estimate Exp Growth Estimate Exp Growth Estimate Linear Estimate Linear Estimate Linear

Total --> Average -->

Zj

( Y j + Z j)

Loops

T ot a l

(See Figure 1) (Figure 1)

1

2 2 2 2

1

2 12 0.6

* Based on references used in Sections III and IV

The above assessment can be described by Equation [1] below with the summary of results shown in Table [1] above. [1] HWBCj (Element Contribution to HWB) = Wj + Xj + (Yj + Zj) where j represents a specific interdependent element (e.g., food, water, etc.), Wj is a required condition for sustaining humanity, X j the type of effect (linear or nonlinear) an element has on HWB, Yj is the number of direct effects on other interdependent elements that in-turn affect human wellbeing, and Zj is the number of self-reinforcing feedback loops for a given element that influence human well-being. 5) Studying the results from Table [1], it is proposed that the top-nine priority elements to pursue for achieving human well-being (HWB) include {1} food, {2} water and {3} health as first priority. Others with high priority include {4} climate change and pollution, {5} poverty, {6} population, {7} spirituality and moral compass, {8} education, and {9} energy. The elements and identifiers in bold in Table 1 are the ones concluded to be the higher priority elements. This is a simplified approach to assess a complex system. 25

4 5 2 7 10 5 5 1 2 4 1 5 9 5 6 3 74 4.6

HWB + Exponential Decay + Linear +

Element

-

+

Linear -

-

Exponential Growth -

Figure 2: Element Effects on Human Well-Being (HWB)

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6) One takeaway from this assessment is the importance of spirituality and moral compass. Since 85% of the world population is religious there should be tremendous human and monetary resources available when mobilized to solve many of the problems described in Section III. It is important to find a goal(s) upon which all religious faiths can agree. Spirituality and moral compass is in the broad category of “human contentment.” 5 7) The priorities for food, water, population, poverty, climate change and energy in the assessment are in the broad category of “human physical welfare.” 5 8) Education is also an important priority. It is under the third broad 5 category of “human freedom.” 9) Funding for many of these projects could come from diverting a mere 15% of the $1.34 trillion spent by governments on the military annually as described under the Security element in Section III. Militaries need partial transformation into humanitarian mission teams. 10) The United Nations Millennium Development Goals, established in 2000, interweave with the elements listed above, and are important to achieve by 2015. 11) We must heed the warnings of today to sustain humanity. The energy crisis of the 1970’s was not heeded, and our children and future descendants will reap the results of our ignorance. 12) With the world-wide monetary crisis and recession upon us in 2008-2009 it will be difficult to convince developed nations to use resources to improve world-wide human well-being since so much is needed to deal with maintaining HWB in developed countries. However, without a big effort, eventually there will be worldwide chaos. 2.0 < SYSTEM INTERVENTION > 2.1 SYSTEM LEVERAGING HIERARCHY Dr. Donella Meadows (deceased) developed a 12-point-hierarchy for intervening or leveraging a system. 1 , 2 The leveraging factors along with examples of appropriate actions for HWB are listed in descending order of impact. (1) Power to transcend paradigms (Ideas are needed to transition our Earth system from a paradigm focused on consumption and economic development to a paradigm based on sustainability and human values such as time affluence.); (2) Know the paradigm of the system. (Sustainable Earth and humanity); (3) System goals (Sustainable human well-being); (4) Self-organization (Power to add, delete, change system structure or change anything lower on this hierarchic list - will be discussed below.); (5) Rules of the system (create incentives {carbon cap-and-dividend}, punishments {carbon tax} and constraints {stabilize world population}; (6) Transparency of information flows. (e.g., quarterly audit of status of polio eradication and actions planned; EIA and IEA are two reliable, nonpartisan sources of reliable information for energy production, applications and costs); (7) Positive feedback (self-reinforcing or accelerating) mechanisms (e.g., melting sea ice increases ocean heat absorption due to reduced reflectivity 27

of the ocean water compared to ice {albedo effect}, which leads to increasing temperature and more ice melting and in turn more heat absorption and higher temperatures. That self-reinforcing mechanism can lead to a runaway system with accelerating temperature rise and eventually chaos.); (8) Negative feedback (self-regulating) mechanism (e.g., power of big business calls for power of big government; economic globalization requires global governance); (9) Time constants of the system (e.g., as the under 5-year-old mortality rate declines, total fertility rate drops, but at least twenty years or more later); (10) Material stocks and flows (Many cities have traffic congestion and high pollution in urban areas. The cost and timeliness of constructing underground subways is prohibitive. Bus rapid transit (BRT) utilizes expedited bus lanes and loading systems that are much cheaper and reduce congestion in urban areas as well as reducing CO 2 emissions.); (11) Size of buffers (To maintain biodiversity more than a few of an endangered species needs to be protected to insure sustainability of the species.); (12) Numbers or parameter details (Usually 95% of effort goes in this area, but it is at the bottom of the list. For example, the financial budget of a nonprofit entity is fixed based upon its income from donations. If it wants to expand its programs, it either needs to reduce operating expenses or increase contributions. It is difficult to increase projects or donations while maintaining or cutting headcount. However, if a contributor to the nonprofit can be encouraged to donate more because of a special project (s)he may have a particular interest, it leverages an element further up the hierarchy list. For example, a win-win results when an increasing percentage of girls participate in secondary education since with education the total fertility rate goes down and the poverty rate is also reduced. This leads to a higher percentage of girls going to secondary school and a positive feedback mechanism for education, population stabilization and reduced poverty.) 2.2 OTHER FACTS AND IDEAS 1) Humanity operates on a three-legged-stool system where the legs are represented by the following three types of entities: {a} for-profit corporations, {b} governments and inter-government organizations and {c} non-government organizations and the citizenry. 2) For-profit businesses look short-term for maximizing profit for shareholders and long-term for survival. They reinvent themselves and synthesize efficient processes to obtain these goals. Many corporations worldwide have been very successful with this objective. However, on 9/7/2008 US Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Hank Paulson, said about the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that “Because the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are in conservatorship, they will no longer be managed with the strategy to maximize common shareholder returns, a strategy which historically encouraged risk-taking.” 3) Governments provide human services, security, stability and research, development and planning to the citizenry with a goal of long-term survival. The revenue for providing these services comes from taxation of the citizenry. 4) Inter-government organizations provide a forum for resolving differences among nation-states as well as provide services for member countries. 28

Member governments and NGOs fund the organizations. They also plan for long-term survival. The most prominent inter-government entity is the United Nations. It is a “global association of governments facilitating cooperation in international law, security, economic development, and social equity.” Other examples include the European Union and African Union. 5) Non-government organizations, citizenry-based groups, including nonprofit organizations (e.g., charities, churches, mosques, temples and foundations) obtain their revenue from gifts and investments. They utilize these assets to further their mission statements for the “common good.” Some have narrow objectives while others have very general areas of contribution. Some are “think tanks” whose deliverables are knowledge and judgment to guide policies for governments, et al. They also plan for longterm survival. 6) Returning to the system-leveraging concept described above, “selforganization” is one of the high priority leveraging tools. New systems such as “social entrepreneurship” and “social businesses” are just such leveraging tools that can help in the long-term survival of humanity and our planet. They can be thought of as additional legs or structural reinforcement for the existing legs on the planet’s “stool” for improved human well-being. 7) Social entrepreneurs develop a concept such as the micro-credit idea of Professor Mohammed Yunus, who won the Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Grameen Bank in 2006. Thirty years ago he started with the idea of loaning small amounts of money to poor women in Bangladesh for the purchase of supplies (e.g., cloth) that they converted into a finished product (e.g., clothing). Upon selling their finished product they would repay the loan and have a profit leftover for their family. They repeated the cycle over and over again to improve their family’s financial condition. The Grameen bank was the result. This model has been applied successfully all over the developing world. 8) Ashoka, “citizen sector organization”, founded by Mr. Bill Drayton, has funded over two thousand social entrepreneur fellows in over 60 countries since 1981. 3 One or more citizens caring and organizing to “provide a service” or “spark a change” are the active ingredients of a social entrepreneur. As he articulates, the most important concept is “everyone a changemaker”—aka citizen—role.” 4 Through Ashoka’s organization they have developed a worldwide network of expertise to utilize this knowledge base to apply these successful social models all over the world. Ashoka’s success rate is outstanding. They provide funds to “changemakers” that have a lasting impact across the globe. For example, “five years after start-up launch 90% of Ashoka Fellows have seen independent institutions replicate their innovation and over fifty percent have already changed national policy. 4 , 5 This structural reinforcement for the Earth’s stool needs additional funding to stabilize the planet. Foundations with the same focus include the Skoll Foundation 6 and the Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship. 7 9) Social entrepreneurship has been recognized by many private foundations as an important way to utilize their funds to improve the lives of humans in an efficient business manner. 10) Dr. Yunus has also initiated what he calls a “social business,” which has clear objectives and operates as a corporation with the purpose to serve humanity for the “common good,” not profit-maximizing. The shareholders or investors {a} establish a clear social mission statement, {b} provide funding 29

for start-up and {c} may participate in the day-to-day operation of the business. As the business carries out its objectives it provides income for local workers and products and services that humanity needs. The positive cash flow resulting from subtracting expenses from revenues goes back into growing the business and gradually repaying the investment contributed by shareholders. There may be a small dividend of several percent per year, also provided to the shareholder. Social business processes are just at the development stage, and it will take creativity and diligence to establish the optimum process. The Danon-Grameen Bank joint venture is a good example of how this can be done. It produces Danon yogurt (formulated to meet local customer tastes) in small manufacturing plants throughout Bangladesh using locally produced milk and distributes through local village sales personnel. Its employees are local residents and the product meets the protein needs of the local population. 8 11) Similar to the social business idea discussed above is a corporation that is designed to seamlessly integrate both social and financial purpose as described by Dr. Allen White. 9 It is a new multi-stakeholder initiative in which social purpose moves from the periphery to the core of the business. Stakeholders include shareholders, employees, unions, suppliers, customers, government, communities and future generations. This is a holistic approach that corporations may transition to in the future. 12) David Korten has suggested a similar idea to Professor Yunus and Dr. White. His idea is to charter a “public-benefit” corporation, which serves a well-defined public purpose under strict rules of public accountability. It can be chartered as either a for-profit or not-for-profit entity. The for-profit entity would have to balance public and private interests. This would replace today’s private-benefit corporation. 1 0 13) The Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility this year filed more than 300 proxy resolutions on issues such as global warming, political contributions, sexual discrimination, labor standards and executive pay. The center’s real goal is not to win proxy votes, but to develop a dialogue with top corporate executives. 1 1 14) “Soft” tools for system intervention include {a} visioning, {b} networking, {c} truth telling, {d} learning and {e} loving. 1 2 2.3 ACTION PLAN 1) Provide leadership from global to local levels to make a paradigm shift from consumption to sustainability and human values such as time affluence. 2) Provide private and public funding for structural reinforcement of humanity’s “stool” to implement system intervention methods. 3) Change system goals from items like increased consumption to concepts like social connectedness, poverty eradication and good health. 4) Become a social entrepreneur or donate through organizations like Ashoka. This is a self-organizing system intervention. 5) Utilize the concept of social business or public-benefit corporations, and invest in one or establish one. These new types of corporations could have the largest long-term impact on our operating systems, and the future of humanity because of their {a} goal setting based on real human need and {b} implementation based on profit-maximizing business processes. This is a “win-win” situation, where there is a positive feedback mechanism intervening in the system for self-sustaining an entity as well as goal setting 30

and self-organization features that are high on the system intervention priority list for human well-being. 6) With a flat world (globalization and increasing worldwide middle-class) and an altruistic paradigm shift incorporating the concept of having “just enough” consumption; and using some of the new organizational structures suggested above, humanity may have “just enough” time to prevent collapse, and achieve an acceptable sustainable quality of life in the broadest sense. 7) Incorporate new rules in the system to reward desired behavior by citizens and entities. (e.g., carbon cap-and-dividend, carbon tax, solar energy tax credits and population stabilization.) 8) Information transparency (accurate and timely) makes all people accountable and the world flat (i.e., level playing field). 3.0 < SOJOURNERS ARE WE > The “Big Bang” theory estimates that the universe was created about 13.7 billion years ago. Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, while life originated on Earth about 4 billion years ago and homo sapiens appeared about 130,000 years ago. 1 With this timeline in mind, each of us is a temporary resident of Earth or a sojourner. During our time here we are to use our individual and collective bodies, minds and spirits to create a sustainable legacy that will encourage reciprocity and interdependency within our species and between humanity and an enduring planet. What actions do we take to provide this for our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? I suggest the following: 1) Educate ourselves about the finiteness of our planet, and be introspective in making decisions about the most important actions we can take, and then do them. 2) Participate and learn from the Earth Intelligence Network. 2 3) Consider taking a leadership role in affecting a paradigm shift in humanity from consuming to sustaining, and focusing on human values. 3) Think about how to share, reduce, reuse and recycle, and take action. 4) Form citizen groups to discuss alternative actions for our local areas, and then go do them. 5) Engage governments and politicians! They must get it, if we are to succeed. 6) Be in discussion groups with other religious faiths and cultures to seek common ground to work on human well-being together. 7) Support the UN and NGOs in their human well-being programs. 8) Become a social entrepreneur or financially support them. 9) Enforce the global citizenship of for-profit businesses, and invest in social businesses or public-benefit corporations. 10) Volunteer.

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V. REFERENCES III. SUSTAINING HUMANITY: FACTS TO REMEMBER AND ACTIONS TO TAKE 1 . Dr . J ohn Stu tz , “ The R ole o f We ll- Be ing in a Grea t T rans ition,” Te llus Ins titu te , 2006 , h t t p : / /w w w .g t in i t ia t i ve .o r g /d oc ume n ts / /PD FFIN AL S /1 0We l l Be ing . pdf ( view ed 11 /2 /20 08) 2 . D r . Me da r d Ga be l , “ B ig P ic t ure / S ma ll W or ld ,” h ttp ://www .b ig pic turesma llw orld .co m /ind e x.sh tml

A. HUMAN PHYSICAL WELFARE 1.0 Food 1 . U ni t ed N a t io ns F oo d Sec ur i t y C o n fer ence , R om e, J u ne 3 - 5 , 20 08 , h ttp ://www .fa o .or g/foodc lima te /h lc- home /en / ( v iew ed 8 /1 0 /20 08) 2 . Les ter R . B r ow n , “ Pl an B 3.0 ,” p . 183 - 18 9 , W .W . N or to n & C o , N Y , 20 08 , h t t p : / /w w w .e ar th- po lic y . or g / Books / P B3 /C o n te n ts .h tm 3 . J e f fr e y D . Sac hs , “ C o mm on W e al t h ,” C h ap t er 6 , p . 15 0-1 51 , Pen qu in Press , N Y , 20 08 4 . R obe r t D iaz e t.al. “ Stu d y Shows Co n tinu e d Spr e ad o f ‘De ad Zo nes ’ ,” Scie nce , 8 / 15 /0 8 h ttp ://www .sc ienc eda ily.co m/re leas es /20 08 /0 8 /08 081 41 543 25 .h tm ( viewed 8 /29 /2 008 ) 5 . N ic h ol as D . Kr is to f , “ R ais in g th e W or ld ’s I Q ,” D ec e mb er 4 , 2 008 , h t t p : / /w w w .n y t i mes .com / 20 08 /1 2 /0 4 /op in io n /0 4k r is to f .h tm l 6 . U ni ted Na tio ns M i lle nn iu m Deve lo pm en t G oa ls (MDG ’s) h t t p : / /w w w .u n .or g /m il le nn iu mgo al s /i nde x . h tm l # 7 . Les ter R. Brow n , “ Plan B 3.0 ,” p .190 , W .W . Nor ton & Co , N Y, 2 008

2.0 Water 1. J e ffrey D . Sachs , “Common Wealth,” Ch apter 5, p.115ff, Penqu in Pr ess , N Y, 2008 2 . L e s t e r R . B r o w n , “ Pl a n B 3 .0 , ” C h a p te r 4 , p . 6 8 f f a n d C h a p te r 9 , p . 1 7 9 f f , W .W . N o r to n & C o , N Y , 2 00 8 , h ttp ://www .e ar th- po l ic y.or g /Bo oks /PB3 /Co n ten ts .htm 3 . FLOW ( F or L o ve of W a t er ) , http://www.flowthefil m.co m/a bou twa ter ( viewed 11 /2 /2008 ) F i lm di r ec te d b y Ire na S a l ina , a va i lab le on D VD in D ec e mb er 200 8 4 . F r e d P e a r c e , “ W h e n t h e R i ver s R u n D r y ,” p.70ff, p. 201ff, Beacon Press , Bos ton, 2006 5 . I b i d . p .2 7 f f , p .1 0 8 f f, 2 0 0 6 6 . C l im a te C h ang e , W a t er a nd Fo od Sec ur it y , F ebr uary 2 008 , ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/m e e t i n g /0 1 3 /a i 7 8 3 e .p d f ( vi ew e d 8 /1 0/ 2 008 ) 7 . J osep h Ve tte r , “Dry T i mes ,” Re ade r’s Diges t, Ma y 2 008 8. Op. c i t, Fred Pe arce, p.299f, 2006 9 . h t tp : / /e n. w iki ped ia .o r g /w iki /D r i p_ ir r ig a ti on ( v i ew ed 8 / 3 /20 08) 1 0 .h ttp ://www .u nep .or.jp /ie tc /p ublic a tions /tech pub lica tio ns /tech pub -8e /drip .asp ( v iew ed 8 /3 / 200 8) 1 1) Sa ndr a Pos tel , “Gr owi ng More Fo od wi th Less Water ,” Sci enti fic Amer ica n , Feb2001, Volume284, Issue 2, p46-51 1 2) D Molde n , C de Fra i tu re – “Wo rld Wa ter Su pp ly an d De ma nd , 2 000 ,” h t t p : / /w w w .i w m i .c g i a r .o r g ( viewed 8 /3 /2 008) 1 3 ) Pe t i ti o n t o A d d Art i c l e 3 1 t o U N H u m a n R i g h ts , http ://artic le31.org/ (s ig ned 11 /2 /200 8) 1 4) U N U n ive r s a l D ec la r a t ion o f H u ma n R i gh ts , h t tp : / /w w w .u n .org / O ver v iew/ r ig h ts . h tm l ( view ed 1 1/2 /200 8) 15. Op. c i t, Fred Pe arce, p.306

3.0 Shelter 1 . V al er ie J . Br own , “ G i ve Me Sh el t er ” , Env i ro nme n tal He alth Pers pec tives , Vo l. 111 , F eb , 2 003 , h ttp ://www .e hpo nlin e .or g /members /20 03 /1 11- 2 /foc us .h tml ( v iew ed 8 /4 / 200 8) 2 . Me ena Men on , “ Sq ua tte rs are the lar ges t b uild ers o f hous in g in th e wor ld ,” Jun e , 20 03 , w w w . in foc ha nge in d ia .o r g ( viewed 8 /4 /2 008) 3 . J agm oha n , “ C iti es a nd C li ma te ” , Th e S t ates ma n, A ug us t 3 , 2 008 ; h ttp ://www .th es ta tes ma n .ne t/page .arc view .p hp?c lid= 3&id=2 433 84 &usrsess=1 ( viewed 8 /4 /20 08)

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4.0 Energy 1 . Ene r g y I n f or m a ti on A dm in is tr a t io n – E IA – O f fic ia l E ner g y S t a t is tic s fr om the U . S . Government, h ttp ://w ww .e ia .doe .g o v/ ( viewe d Ju ly 200 8) 2 . In tern a tio na l Ener gy Ag enc y – En erg y Pub l ica tions , h ttp ://www .iea .org /Te xtb ase /p ub lica tio ns /free _new _Desc .as p? PUBS_ ID=1 199 ( vi ewed Ju ly 2 008 ) 3 . R obe r t Zu br in , “ En er g y Vic tor y” , p . 198 , Pr ome theus Bo oks, Amh ers t, N Y, 2 007 4 . I bi d . p . 20 1 5 . An drew Bur r, “ In an A nt ic ip a te d D eb u t , F u tur e o f LE E D A r r i v es o n 20 09 P l a t for m” , J u ne 4 , 200 8 , h ttp ://www .us gbc .o rg /News /U SG BC In Th eN ew s D e ta i ls .asp x ? ID = 3 720 ( v iew ed 8 /3 1 /20 08) 6 . Tho mas L . Fr ied man , Ta lk ab ou t his la test b ook a t En erg iz ing KY Co nfere nce , 9 / 18 /2 008 , L ou is vi l le , K Y , “ H o t , Fl a t a nd C r owd ed ,” Far r ar , S t r aus, G ir o u x , N ew Y or k , N Y , 2 008 7 .h ttp ://www .u nep .org/Doc umen ts .Mu ltilingu al/D e fau lt.Pr in t.as p?Doc umen tID=5 38 &Ar ticle ID=5 849 &l=e n ( viewed 8 /11 /2008 ) 8 . D r . D an ie l Yer gi n , T es ti mo n y b e for e U S S e na te C om m i t tee on E n erg y , 9 /1 2 /20 08 , Ca mbr id ge En erg y Rese arch , Bos to n , MA 9 . W ir e d Ed i to r , C hr is A n ders o n i n te r vi ew s S h ai Ag as s i , C E O , Be tter P lac e , D ec 9 , 20 08 , h ttp ://www .b e tter place.co m /pr ess-r oo m /videos -de tail/wire d-ed ito r-in-c hie f-chr is-a nde rson inte rviews-shai-agassi/ 1 0 . P ic k ens Pl an to Sto p A mer ica ’s Ad dic t io n to F or e ig n O il , h ttp://www .p icke nsp lan .co m ( v iew ed 8 /1 2 /20 08) 1 1 . W h y N a t ur a l G as I s T he I mme dia te So lution To G aso line , h ttp ://www .ku tvgre ener living .co m/ar tic les /article /ar tic le_ id /41 /Wh y-N a tura l- Gas -Is -Th eI m me di a te-S o lu t io n- To - Gas ol in e ( v iew ed 10 / 25 /2 008 ) 1 2 . Emer ge nc y Respo nse to N atur a l Gas Ve hic les , 200 2 , { Foo tno te : Na tur al gas is c o mp osed o f abo u t 90- 95 % m e tha ne a nd is f l a mma bl e o nl y in t he 5 - 15 % c o mp osi t io n r ang e i n a ir , a nd i ts ig ni t io n te mp era t ure is m uc h h i ghe r t ha n gaso l ine . N a tu r a l gas als o d isp erses q uick l y fr om a tank leak beca use it is less de nse th an a ir , un lik e g aso line , an d th ere fore is less lik ely to ig nite a nd ca use a fire than gasoline. CNG is s tor ed in sp ecially des ig ned , hig h-pr essure c ylind ers, a nd h as th e od ora n t, merca p tan , add ed to t h e na t ur a l g as for s af e t y . The o dor c an be de tec t ed a t 0 .3 % l e ve l fo r na t ur a l g as i n a ir , w h ich is s ix t e en t im es b el ow the low er e xp los io n l i mi t ( L EL) f or n a tur al gas c o mb ust io n . LN G is s t ore d a t h ig her p r es s u r es t h an C N G , b u t do es no t c on ta in a n od ora n t. } h ttp ://74 .12 5 .45 .104 /se arch ?q=cac he :iuWS4J 6d2CcJ:www .sce ne o fthe accid en t.o rg /erg /N a t ural%2520Gas%2520Vehic les.pd f+c n g + f la m ma b i l i t y+e x p l o s i o n + c r a s h &h l= e n &c t= c lnk &c d = 1 0 &g l= us ( v iew ed 1 0/ 2 6 /20 08) 1 3 . Car bon Ca p tur e an d Stora ge, h ttp ://en .w ik ipe dia .or g/w iki/C arb on _cap ture _a nd_s tora ge ( viewed 9 /28 /2 008 ) 1 4 . Fr ed Kru pp a nd Mir ia m H or n , “ Ea r t h : T he S e que l ; Th e R ac e t o R e in v en t E n erg y a nd Stop Global Warming,” p.101ff, 2008; This book is an exc ellent so urce of information a bou t the cu rren t are as o f focused de ve lo pmen t o n ren ewab le ene rg y so urces and w hat ma y b e poss ib le fo r co al emiss ions c on tr ol. T he b ook g i ves goo d ar gu men ts for u tiliz ing th e cap -and -trad e mech an ism for r educ in g GH Gs b y cr ea ting en tr epre neu r ca pitalis m . 1 5 . Cou ncil o n Co mpetitiveness , “ 100-D a y En erg y Ac tion Pla n for Amer ica ,” 9 /9 /20 08 h ttp ://www .co mp e te .org /news /e n tr y/5 60 /c ounc il-o n-compe titiveness -cha l len ges- ne xtp r es ide n t- to - e xec u te-1 00- da y-e ne r g y- ac t io n- pl an- fo r - am er ic a / ( v iew ed 9 / 9 /20 08)

5.0 Climate Change and Pollution 1 . U N I n ter g o ver nme nt a l Pa ne l on C l im a te C h ang e , AR4 , “ S um ma r y f or Po l ic y M ak er s ,” p .2-3 , N o ve mb er 20 07 , Va lenc ia, Spa i n, http://www.ipcc .ch/pdf/ass essment- repor t/ar 4/s yr /ar4_s yr _spm.pdf ( viewed 8 /11 /2 008 ) 2 . UN In terg o ver nme nta l Pa ne l on C l ima te Ch ang e , AR4 , C hap ter 6 , “Palaeoc lima te” , p . 444 , h ttp ://www .ipcc .ch /pd f/assess me n t-r epor t/ar4 /wg 1 /ar 4-wg 1-ch ap ter6 .pd f ( v iew ed 8 /1 1 /20 08) 3 . D r . J ames H anse n , N A SA Godd ard Sp ace I ns t i tu t e , T a lk on c l im a te c h ang e , Vide o tap ed b y C- Span o n 6 /1 /2008 , C ar y Ha ll, Le xin g ton , MA, h ttp://www .c-

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sp ana rch i ves .org /libra r y/inde x.ph p? ma in_ pa ge=p rod uc t_ vid eo_ in fo &pro ducts_ id= 280 97 01 ( viewed 1 0 //24 /2008 ) 4 . I b i d . ( vi e w e d 1 0 / 2 4 /2 0 0 8 ) 5 . Tho mas L . Fr ied man , Ta lk ab ou t his la test b ook a t En erg iz ing KY Co nfere nce , 9 / 18 /2 008 , L ou is vi l le , K Y , “ H o t , Fl a t a nd C r owd ed ,” Far r ar , S t r aus, G ir o u x , N ew Y or k , N Y , 2 008 6 . Les ter R . B r ow n , “ Pl an B 3.0 ,” C h ap te r 3 , p . 66 , W .W . N o r t on & C o , N Y , 2 00 8 , h t t p : / /w w w .e ar th- po lic y . or g / Books / P B3 /C o n te n ts .h tm 7 . Pe t er Bar nes , “ C a r bo n C ap pi ng, A C i t iz e n ’s G ui de ,” 20 07 , h ttp ://www .ca pan dd ivid end .org /files /Ca rbo nCa pp ing _Citiz ensG uide .pd f 8.Dr. George Lak off, Talk about his book “The Po litical Mind” on C-span, 2008, Austin, h t t p : / /w w w .csp ana rch i ves .org /libra r y/inde x.ph p? ma in_ pa ge=p rod uc t_ vid eo_ in fo &pro ducts_ id= 280 47 51

6.0 Population 1 . Wor ld Po pu la tion , W ik ipe dia, http://en.wikipedia.o rg /w iki/Wo rld_p opu la tio n ( v iew e d 8 /7 /20 08) 2 . J e f fr e y D . S ac hs , “ C om mon W e al t h ,” Th e D em ogra ph ic C ha ll en ge , p .15 7 f f , Pe nqu in Press , N Y, 2 008 3 . Mar tha Ca mp be ll e t al., “Re tu rn o f the Po pu la tion G row th Fac tor ,” Sc ie nc e , Vo l . 3 15 . No . 5 818 , p p . 150 1 – 15 02 (1 6 March 2 007 ); a nd Les ter R . Brown , “ P lan B 3 .0 ,” C ha p ter 7 , p .1 3 6 f f , W .W . N o r to n & C o , N Y , 2 0 0 8 , h t t p : / /w w w .e ar th- po lic y . or g / Books / P B3 /C o n te n ts .h tm 4 . U N MDG’ s , http ://www.u ndp.org/mdg/bas ics .shtml ( vi ew e d 8 /7 /2 008 )

7.0 Poverty 1 . W orld Ba nk da ta on po ve r ty, Au gus t 2 6 , 2 008 , h ttp ://web .wo rldba nk .o rg /W BSITE/EXT ERNAL /N EW S/0 ,,c on te n tMDK:218 81 954~ pag ePK:6 4 257 043~ piPK:437 376~ the Site PK:4 607 ,00 .h tml ( viewe d 11 /26 /20 08) 2 . J e f fr e y D . Sac hs , “ C o mm on W e al t h ,” T he P o ores t Bil l io n an d the P o ver t y T r ap , p .30- 31 , Pe nqu in Pr ess , N Y, 200 8 3. UN MDGs , http://www.u ndp.org /mdg/bas ics .shtml ( vi ew e d 8 /9 /2 008 )

8.0 Health and Longevity 1 . Ro lf Pe nda ll, Kathr yn A. F os ter and Marga ret C owe ll, “R esilienc e a nd Re gio ns : Bu ild ing Un ders tand in g o f the Me ta pho r,” IURD Wo rking Pa pe r Ser ies (U niversity o f Ca lifor nia , Berk ele y) ( 2 007 ) Pape r W P- 20 07 -12 2 . Les t er R . Br own , “ P la n B 3 . 0 ,” C h apter 6 , “ E arl y S i gns of D ec l in e ,” p . 1 06 , W .W . N o r to n & C o , N Y , 2 0 0 8 3. UN MDGs , http://www.u ndp.org /mdg/bas ics .shtml ( v i ew e d 8 /9/2 008 )

9.0 Economy 1 . Tho mas L . Fr ied man , Ta lk ab ou t his la test b ook a t En erg iz ing KY Co nfere nce , 9 / 18 /2 008 , L ou is vi l le , K Y , “ H o t , Fl a t a nd C r owd ed ,” Far r ar , S t r aus, G ir o u x , N ew Y or k , N Y , 2 008

10.0 Ecosystems and Sustainable Development 1 . D e finition for Sus taina ble Soc ie ty: h t tp : / /e n .w ik ip ed ia . org /w ik i /Sus t ai nab i li t y 2 . J ames G us ta ve Sp e th , “ The B r idg e a t t h e Edge o f t he W or l d ,” p . 48 , Y a le U ni v ers i t y P r ess ( 20 08 ) 3 . Mi l le nn iu m Ecos yst e m As s es s m en t , 2 005 . “ Ec os ys te ms a nd H u ma n W e ll-b ei ng : Synthes is Report,” p. 1ff, World Res ourc es Ins titute, Was hington, DC. h ttp ://www .millen niumass essment.or g /en /ind e x.asp x (O vera ll Syn thes is Rep or t; viewed 8 /19 /2 008 4 . C ar l McD a ni el , “ W is d om fo r a L i va bl e Pl an e t ,” C h ap te r 7 . L i v ing i n a f in i te w o r l d . He rma n Daly an d Econ omics , Tr in ity Un ive rs i ty Press ( 200 5) 5 . D r . H er m an D al y , “ Ins t i tu t io ns for a S tea d y Sta te E c o nom y , ” S t e ad y S tate Eco no mics , Is lan d Press , Was hingto n , DC , 19 91

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6 . J er e m y Gr an th am , “ Li v in g B e yo nd O ur Me ans : En t er in g the Age o f L im i ta ti ons , ” Le t te r s to the In ves tment Committee XV, July, 2008, p.8-11, h t t p : / /w w w .g mo .c om /we bs i t ec on te n t /JGL e t te r _ ALL _2Q0 8 .pd f ( view ed 8 /27 /2 008 ) 7 . Gar y G ar dner and T ho mas Pru gh , “ 200 8 Sta te o f the W or ld : Inn o va tions fo r a Sus tainab le Ec ono my,” p .6 , h ttp ://www .wo rldw a tch .o rg/files /pd f/SOW 08_c hap ter_ 1 .pd f

(viewed 8/11/2008) 8 . I bi d . p . 10 ( v i ew ed 8 / 11 /2 008 ) 9 .Ibid . p . 17 ( viewed 8/1 1 /20 08)

11.0 Security 1. Pe tter Stå le nhe im, Ca ta lina Perd omo an d Elis ab e th Sk öns , “Militar y Expen ditur e,” C h a p t e r 5 , Armaments, Disarmaments and International Security, Information from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2008, June 9, 2008; http://www.s ipri.org/contents/editors/YB08 (viewed 8/8/2008) 2 . L e s ter R . B r o w n , “ Pl a n B 3 . 0 ,” C h a p te r 1 3 , p . 2 8 0 f f , W .W . N o r to n & C o , N Y ( 2 0 0 8 ) 3 . Dr . Me da rd Ga be l, Big Pic tureSmallWo rld, 2 007 , http ://www.earth in te llige nce .ne t/d ynamas ter /imag e_a rch i ve/or i gina l/6d9 39d 1c f5d f7 659 b ff60 91 999 9 f7b 22 .j p g ( viewe d 8 /31 /2 008)

12.0 Catastrophic Failure 1 . N uclear No n-pr olifer ation Tr eaty, h t t p ://w w w .u n .or g /D e p ts /dd a /W MD / t r ea ty/ ( v iew ed 9 /4 / 200 8)

B. HUMAN CONTENTMENT 1.0 Spirituality and Moral Compass 1 . Enc yc l op ed ia Br itan nic a an d Wor l d Chr is tian Enc yc lop ed ia , 20 01 2 . “ Ma jo r R e l ig ions o f t h e W or ld ,” http://www.adherents .com/Re ligions_By_Adherents .html ( v iew ed 8 /2 7 /20 08) 3 . “ S pir i t ual i t y,” W ike pe di a , h t tp : // e n .w ik ip edi a .o r g /w ik i /Sp ir i tua l i t y ( v iew ed 8 /2 7 /20 08) 4. J ames Gus tave Sp eth, “The Bridge at th e Edg e o f the W o r l d ,” C h a p te r 1 0 , p . 1 9 9 f f , Ya l e U n i ve r s i t y P r ess ( 20 08 )

2.0 Social Connectedness 1 . Ed D iene r and Mar tin E.P. Se lig man , “Be yond Mo ne y, T owa rd an Eco no m y o f We llB e in g ,” http ://www .psych.uiuc .edu/~ediener /hottopic /1-31.pdf ( vi ew e d 8 /2 8/ 2 008 ) 2 . J a m e s G u s ta ve Sp e th , “ T h e B r i d g e a t t h e Ed g e o f t h e W o r l d ,” C h a p t e r 6 , p .1 2 6 f f , Y a l e U n i ve r s i t y P r ess ( 20 08 ) 3 . Pa u l R as k in , h t t p : / /e n .w ik ip ed ia . org /w ik i /Pa ul _R as k in ( v i ew ed 9 / 5 /20 08) 4 . Pa u l R as k in e t al . , “ G r ea t Trans i t ion : The Pr om ise a nd L ur e of t h e T im es A h ead ,” T e llus Ins titu te , 20 02 , http://www.gtinitiati ve.or g /documents /Gr eat_Transitions .pdf ( v iew ed 9 /5 / 200 8) 5 . Dr . R obe rt Ka tes et a l , “G rea t T rans ition Va lu es : Pres en t Attitu des , F u tur e Cha nges ,” 2 006 , h t tp :/ / w w w .g t in it i a t i ve .o r g /d oc u men ts / P D F F IN ALS/ 9 Va lu es .p d f ( viewed 11 /4 /2008 )

C. HUMAN FREEDOM 1.0 Education 1 . Po l l y C ur t is , Gu ard ia n , Oc to ber 2 8 , 20 03 , h ttp ://www .g uar dian .co .uk /ed ucation /200 3 /oc t/2 8 /schoo ls .uk 3 ( view ed 8 /11 /2 008 ) 2 . J e f fr e y D . Sac hs , “ C o mm on W e al t h ,” p . 18 7 , P en qu in Pr ess , N Y , 20 08

2.0 Freedom 1 . R obe r t K a t es , A n th on y L eis er owi tz , a nd T ho mas Pa r r is , “ Gr ea t Tra ns i t io n Va lues ,” p . 9 , T e llus Ins titu te , Bos ton , MA, 20 06 , h t tp : / /w w w .g t in i t ia ti v e .o r g ( v iew ed 1 1 /2 /2 008 )

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IV. SYSTEM ASSESSMENT & INTERVENTION FOR SUSTAINED, HUMAN WELL-BEING 1 . J a y W . F orr est er , http://en.w ik ipedia.org/wiki/J a y_W._Forres ter 2 . Don e lla Me adows , J org en Ra nde rs a nd Den n is Mea dows , “ Limits to Gr ow th , The 30 Y e ar U pd a te ,” C he ls ea Gree n Pub l ish ing C o. , W h i te R iv e r J unc t ion , V T ( 20 04 ) 3 . I b i d . p .1 . 4 . I bi d . p .24 4 5 .N assim N icho las Ta le b , “ The Black Swa n : T he Impac t o f th e H igh ly Impr oba ble ,” Ra ndo m Ho use , New York , 200 7

1.0 System Assessment 1 . N assim N icho las Ta le b , “T he Black Swan ,” R an dom H ous e , New York , 2 007 2 . C hr is C. Park , “ Th e En viro nmen t: Pr inc ip les and Applic a tions ,” p . 82 , Ro u tled ge , 2 001 3 . Mi l le nn iu m Ecos yst e m As s es s m en t , 2 005 . “ Ec os ys te ms a nd H u ma n W e ll-b ei ng : Syn thes is Re por t,” Wo rld Reso urc es Ins titute , W ash ing ton , DC . h ttp ://www .millen niumass essment.or g /en /ind e x.asp x (O vera ll Syn thes is Rep or t; viewed 8 /18 /2 008 ) 4 . Op . c i t, Mea dows (2 004 ) 5 . Op . c i t, Stu tz ( 2006 )

2.0 System Intervention 1 . D one l la M ea dows , “ Tw e l ve L ev e r ag e P oin ts in S ys te ms ,” h ttp ://en .w ik ipe dia .or g/w iki/Twe l ve _le ver age_ po in ts , ( view ed 8 /14 /2 008 ) 2 . D one l la M ea dows , “ P lac es t o I n t er ve ne in a S ys t em, ” W h ol e Ea r t h , W i n ter 1 99 7 , http://www.sus tainalaska.org- pd f-Wh ole Ear thR e v.pd f (viewed 8/14/2008) 3 . Ash ok a , h ttp ://www .as hoka .org/ ( view ed 8/8 /200 8) 4 . B il l D r ayt o n , “ E ver y o ne a C ha nge mak er , ” In no va t io ns , W i n ter 2 006 , pub l is he d b y M IT Press , h ttp://www .as hok a .or g /files /In no va tions Book le tSma ll.pd f ( v iew ed 8 / 8 /20 08) 5 . “L ea ding Soc ia l En tr epr eneu rs, Elec tio ns , 200 6-2 007 ” , Ash oka , Inn ova tors for the Pu blic , 2 008 , ISBN-1 3: 9 78- 0-966 675 9-9- 3 6 . Sko ll F ou nda tio n Pr ogra m for Soc ia l En tre pre neurs , http://www.skollfoundation.or g/ 7 . Schw ab F ou nda tio n for Social En tr epr eneu rsh ip , h t t p : / /w w w .s c hw ab fo un d .or g /s f / in de x .h t m (viewe d 10 /3 1 /20 08) 8 . Muh amm ad Yu nus, “ C r ea t ing a W o r l d W i t ho u t P o ve r t y : S oc i al B us i ness a nd th e Fut ur e o f C ap i ta lism , ” P ub l ic A f f a irs , 2 00 8 9 . Allen Wh ite , “C orpo ra tion 2020 , D esign ing for Soc ial Purp ose” h ttp ://www .co rpor a tion2 020 .org / (viewe d 8 /30 /200 8) 1 0 . D a v id K or t en , “ On l y O ne R eas on to Gra n t a C o r po r a te C har te r , ” E x pa nd ed ve r s i on o f p r ese n ta t ion t o the Sum m i t on t he Fu tu r e o f t h e C or pora t io n , Fa neu i l H a ll , B os to n , M A , 1 1 /13 /200 7, h ttp ://www .yes ma gaz ine .org /article .asp ? ID=2 171 ( view ed 9 / 6 /08 ) 1 1 . In ter f ait h C en te r on C or p ora te R es po ns ib i li t y , h ttp ://www .iccr .o rg / ( viewed 9 /7 /2 008) 12. Donella Meadows et al, “ Limits to Gr owth, A 30- year update” p.271ff, 2004

3.0 Sojourners Are We 1 . Life on Ear th , h t tp :/ / w w w .so ls t a t io n .c o m/l i f e /ea r - l i fe.h t m, ( viewe d 8 /6 /2008 ) 2 . Ear th In tellige nce Ne tw ork, 50 1c3 o rga niz a tion , h ttp ://www .e ar th- in tellige nce.n et ( view ed 1 1/4 /200 8)

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