Sustainable Security: Threats And Responses
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View Sustainable Security: Threats And Responses as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 1,201
- Pages: 43
Future Security Challenges, Risks and Threats 24 November 2009
►Sustainable Security THREATS AND RESPONSES
Chris Abbott Honorary Visiting Research Fellow Department of Peace Studies University of Bradford
Structure of lecture ► Government assessment of threats ► Sustainable security assessment of threats ► Government responses ► Sustainable security responses ► Why the current approach gets it wrong ► Threats workshop
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
►Government assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
Government documents ► Strategic Defence Review, Strategic Defence
Review: Modern Forces for the Modern World (Ministry of Defence, July 1998) ► SDR new chapter, The Strategic Defence Review: A New Chapter (Ministry of Defence, July 2002) ► Defence White Paper, Delivering Security in a Changing World (Ministry of Defence, December 2003) ► DWP additional chapter, Delivering Security in a Changing World: Future Capabilities (Ministry of Defence, July 2004)
Government documents ► Strategic trends programme, The DCDC
Global Strategic Trends Programme: 2007-2036 (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Ministry of Defence, March 2007) ► National Security Strategy, The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Security in an Interdependent World (Cabinet Office, March 2008) ► National Risk Register, National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, August 2008) ► NSS update, Security for the Next Generation (Cabinet Office, June 2009)
The UK’s national security framework
Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Drivers of insecurity ► Global trends ► Climate change ► Competition for energy ► Poverty, inequality and poor
governance ► Ideologies and beliefs
Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Ring road issues over next 30 years
► Climate change ► Globalisation ► Global inequality
Source: The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme, 2007-2036 (Ministry of Defence, 2007)
National security threats The DWP and the NSS conclude that: ► There are currently no major
conventional military threats to the UK ► International terrorism and the proliferation of WMD represent the most direct threats to the UK’s peace and security
High consequence risks the UK faces
Source: National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2008)
►Sustainable security assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
Sustainable security publications ► Global Responses to Global Threats:
Sustainable Security for the 21st Century (ORG, 2006) ► Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007) ► An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change (ORG, 2008)
Threats to security GOVERNMENT ► International terrorism ► Proliferation of WMD
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Climate change ► Competition over resources ► Marginalisation ► Global militarisation
Regional threats Asia and Oceania ► Maintaining state integrity ► The regional power shift ► Environmental & humanitarian disasters
MENA ► Conflict and occupation ► Resource management ► Marginalisation and social exclusion
Africa ► The nature of the state ► Legacies of war and militarism ► Resource management
Sustainable security publications ► Tigers and Dragons: Sustainable Security in
Asia and Australasia (ORG/SIIA, November 2008) ► From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa (ORG/IPS, March 2009) ► Beyond Dependence and Legacy: Sustainable Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (ORG/ISS, May 2009)
Climate change as a security risk
Source: An Uncertain Future (Oxford Research Group, 2008)
Impact of climate change on the military ► Difficulties maintaining military capability ► Loss of strategic defence assets ► Greater calls for peacetime troop
deployments ► Instability in strategically important regions
►Government responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction & control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
UK defence aim To deliver security for the people of the United Kingdom and the Overseas Territories by defending them, including against terrorism; and to act as a force for good by strengthening international peace and stability.
Source: Defence White Paper (Ministry of Defence, 2003)
MoD strategic objectives 2008-09 ► Achieve success in the military tasks
we undertake at home and abroad. Limited progress ► Be ready to respond to the tasks that
might arise. No progress ► Build for the future.
Some progress Source: MoD Autumn Performance Report 2008-09 (Ministry of Defence, 2009)
UK national security objective
Protecting the United Kingdom and its interests, enabling its people to go about their daily lives freely and with confidence, in a more secure, stable, just and prosperous world.
Source: National Security Strategy (Cabinet Office, 2008)
Principles of the defence vision
► Defending the United Kingdom and its
interests ► Strengthening international peace and
security
►Sustainable security responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention & resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
Sustainable response to terrorism ► Sustained law enforcement and
intelligence-led campaigns ► International diplomatic efforts ► Community engagement ► Targeted military action as last resort
Sustainable response to climate change ► International consensus and regional
agreements ► Massive and sustained funding ► Extensive building programmes ► Further research
►Why does the current approach get it wrong?
“War is not a mere act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.” General Carl von Clausewitz
Source: Vom Kriege (1832)
Other factors influencing security policy ► Alliances and treaties ► International institutions ► International law ► Domestic politics ► National interest ► Public opinion ► Shock events ► Psychology
Other factors influencing security policy ► Alliances and treaties ► International institutions ► International law ► Domestic politics ► National interest ► Public opinion ► Shock events ► Psychology
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention & resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
►Threats workshop
Threats workshop Each group to give a 10min presentation: ► Introduce the trend ► Define the security consequences of that trend ► Summarise the implications of this for the military ► Outline a possible sustainable security response
►More information…
www.chrisabbott.info www.sustainablesecurity.org www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk ►[email protected]
►Sustainable Security THREATS AND RESPONSES
Chris Abbott Honorary Visiting Research Fellow Department of Peace Studies University of Bradford
Structure of lecture ► Government assessment of threats ► Sustainable security assessment of threats ► Government responses ► Sustainable security responses ► Why the current approach gets it wrong ► Threats workshop
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
►Government assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
Government documents ► Strategic Defence Review, Strategic Defence
Review: Modern Forces for the Modern World (Ministry of Defence, July 1998) ► SDR new chapter, The Strategic Defence Review: A New Chapter (Ministry of Defence, July 2002) ► Defence White Paper, Delivering Security in a Changing World (Ministry of Defence, December 2003) ► DWP additional chapter, Delivering Security in a Changing World: Future Capabilities (Ministry of Defence, July 2004)
Government documents ► Strategic trends programme, The DCDC
Global Strategic Trends Programme: 2007-2036 (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Ministry of Defence, March 2007) ► National Security Strategy, The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Security in an Interdependent World (Cabinet Office, March 2008) ► National Risk Register, National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, August 2008) ► NSS update, Security for the Next Generation (Cabinet Office, June 2009)
The UK’s national security framework
Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Drivers of insecurity ► Global trends ► Climate change ► Competition for energy ► Poverty, inequality and poor
governance ► Ideologies and beliefs
Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Ring road issues over next 30 years
► Climate change ► Globalisation ► Global inequality
Source: The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme, 2007-2036 (Ministry of Defence, 2007)
National security threats The DWP and the NSS conclude that: ► There are currently no major
conventional military threats to the UK ► International terrorism and the proliferation of WMD represent the most direct threats to the UK’s peace and security
High consequence risks the UK faces
Source: National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2008)
►Sustainable security assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
Sustainable security publications ► Global Responses to Global Threats:
Sustainable Security for the 21st Century (ORG, 2006) ► Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007) ► An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change (ORG, 2008)
Threats to security GOVERNMENT ► International terrorism ► Proliferation of WMD
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Climate change ► Competition over resources ► Marginalisation ► Global militarisation
Regional threats Asia and Oceania ► Maintaining state integrity ► The regional power shift ► Environmental & humanitarian disasters
MENA ► Conflict and occupation ► Resource management ► Marginalisation and social exclusion
Africa ► The nature of the state ► Legacies of war and militarism ► Resource management
Sustainable security publications ► Tigers and Dragons: Sustainable Security in
Asia and Australasia (ORG/SIIA, November 2008) ► From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa (ORG/IPS, March 2009) ► Beyond Dependence and Legacy: Sustainable Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (ORG/ISS, May 2009)
Climate change as a security risk
Source: An Uncertain Future (Oxford Research Group, 2008)
Impact of climate change on the military ► Difficulties maintaining military capability ► Loss of strategic defence assets ► Greater calls for peacetime troop
deployments ► Instability in strategically important regions
►Government responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction & control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
UK defence aim To deliver security for the people of the United Kingdom and the Overseas Territories by defending them, including against terrorism; and to act as a force for good by strengthening international peace and stability.
Source: Defence White Paper (Ministry of Defence, 2003)
MoD strategic objectives 2008-09 ► Achieve success in the military tasks
we undertake at home and abroad. Limited progress ► Be ready to respond to the tasks that
might arise. No progress ► Build for the future.
Some progress Source: MoD Autumn Performance Report 2008-09 (Ministry of Defence, 2009)
UK national security objective
Protecting the United Kingdom and its interests, enabling its people to go about their daily lives freely and with confidence, in a more secure, stable, just and prosperous world.
Source: National Security Strategy (Cabinet Office, 2008)
Principles of the defence vision
► Defending the United Kingdom and its
interests ► Strengthening international peace and
security
►Sustainable security responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention & resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
Sustainable response to terrorism ► Sustained law enforcement and
intelligence-led campaigns ► International diplomatic efforts ► Community engagement ► Targeted military action as last resort
Sustainable response to climate change ► International consensus and regional
agreements ► Massive and sustained funding ► Extensive building programmes ► Further research
►Why does the current approach get it wrong?
“War is not a mere act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.” General Carl von Clausewitz
Source: Vom Kriege (1832)
Other factors influencing security policy ► Alliances and treaties ► International institutions ► International law ► Domestic politics ► National interest ► Public opinion ► Shock events ► Psychology
Other factors influencing security policy ► Alliances and treaties ► International institutions ► International law ► Domestic politics ► National interest ► Public opinion ► Shock events ► Psychology
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework
GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change
SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention & resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change
►Threats workshop
Threats workshop Each group to give a 10min presentation: ► Introduce the trend ► Define the security consequences of that trend ► Summarise the implications of this for the military ► Outline a possible sustainable security response
►More information…
www.chrisabbott.info www.sustainablesecurity.org www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk ►[email protected]
Related Documents
Sustainable Security: Threats And Responses
July 2020 9
Sustainable Security
June 2020 4
Security Threats - Johnson
May 2020 3
More Documents from ""
Tigers And Dragons: Sustainable Security In Asia And Australasia
November 2019 15
Sustainable Security: Threats And Responses
July 2020 9
