Survey Crosstab Results Sept2009

Beneath the Surface: Sept. 2009 Colorado Blogger Survey Penry Pulls Away with Under-50 Voters, Evens McInnis among Older Crowd Frazier Preferred by Under-40; Buck Wins Over-50, Gains in Every Demographic Governor (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded / July results in parentheses) • Ages 18-39 (137 votes) • Josh Penry: 64% (55%) • Scott McInnis: 25% (32%) • Dan Maes: 12% (13%) • Ages 40-49 (87 votes) • Josh Penry: 61% (51%) • Scott McInnis: 29% (40%) • Dan Maes: 10% (9%) • Ages 50 and up (183 votes) • Josh Penry: 46% (30%) • Scott McInnis: 45% (58%) • Dan Maes: 8% (12%)

U.S. Senate (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded / July results in parentheses) • Ages 18-39 (145 votes) • Ryan Frazier: 41% (42%) • Jane Norton: 27% (n/a) • Ken Buck: 18% (14%) • All Others: 14% (n/a) • Ages 40-49 (82 votes) • Ryan Frazier: 37% (39%) • Ken Buck: 34% (11%) • Jane Norton: 16% (n/a) • All others: 13% (n/a) • Ages 50 and up (181 votes) • Ken Buck: 35% (18%) • Ryan Frazier: 31% (28%) • Jane Norton: 25% (n/a) • All others: 9% (n/a)

Frazier, Buck, Penry Supporters Rate Agreement on Issues as Key Factor McInnis, Norton, Wiens Lean on Candidates' Past Record A new question in the Sept. survey asked readers to rate the primary factor for candidate support. Below are the candidates (who received at least 10 votes) listed by the top reason chosen by their supporters and the % of their supporters who gave that answer: − Agree on Key Issues: Dan Maes (70%); Cleve Tidwell (67%); Josh Penry (58%); Ryan Frazier (57%); Ken Buck (54%) − Past Record: Scott McInnis (52%); Tom Wiens (42%); Jane Norton (41%)

Frazier, Maes, Buck, Penry Supporters Favor Primaries McInnis, Norton, Wiens Backers More Lukewarm to Intraparty Contests The newest Republican entrant into the U.S. Senate race, heralded by many as the frontrunner because of her Washington ties, Jane Norton finished third overall in the September survey. But she won a narrow majority of votes among those who disagree that primary contests are good for the GOP.

U.S. Senate: Are Primary Contests Good? • • • •

Ryan Frazier supporters: 70% agreed, 11% disagreed Ken Buck supporters: 64% agreed, 16% disagreed Jane Norton supporters: 51% agreed, 39% disagreed Tom Wiens supporters: 50% agreed, 33% disagreed

Governor : Are Primary Contests Good? • • •

Dan Maes supporters: 75% agreed, 10% disagreed Josh Penry supporters: 64% agreed, 18% disagreed Scott McInnis supporters: 51% agreed, 29% disagreed

No Surprises Here: Buck, Frazier Supporters Much Less Fond of NRSC Tampering Along similar lines, the survey gauged participant opinions on whether national party organizations like the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) should remain neutral in Colorado primaries. The question follows on the heels of controversy that NRSC reserved web domains for Jane Norton, that Norton was urged to run by John McCain, and that Norton shares professional fundraisers with NRSC chief John Cornyn.

U.S. Senate: Should the NRSC Remain Neutral? • • • •

Ken Buck supporters: 84% agreed, 9% disagreed Ryan Frazier supporters: 79% agreed, 7% disagreed Tom Wiens supporters: 75% agreed, 17% disagreed Jane Norton supporters: 55% agreed, 35% disagreed

McInnis Tops Among Supporters' Confidence at General Election Success As in July, participants also were asked whom they believe to be the strongest 2010 Republican candidate for both the Governor's and U.S. Senate races. In the governor's race, confidence among the two leading candidates' supporters remained stable, while declining among Dan Maes' supporters. In the Senate race, Jane Norton supporters demonstrated the highest confidence. Ryan Frazier's confidence rating dipped slightly and Ken Buck's remained steady, while Cleve Tidwell's grew.

Governor (July results in parentheses) • • •

Scott Mcinnis: 95% Confidence Rating (95%) Josh Penry: 80% Confidence Rating (82%) Dan Maes: 53% Confidence Rating (68%)

U.S. Senate (July results in parentheses) • • • • •

Jane Norton: 89% Confidence Rating Cleve Tidwell: 85% Confidence Rating Ryan Frazier: 79% Confidence Rating Ken Buck: 76% Confidence Rating Tom Wiens: 75% Confidence Rating

(n/a) (71%) (85%) (75%) (65%)

Bloggers Take Colorado’s Political Temperature September 2009 Survey Results and Summary Analysis

Michael Sandoval, Slapstick Politics (http://slapstickpolitics.blogspot.com), [email protected] Ben DeGrow, Mount Virtus (http://bendegrow.com), [email protected] With assistance from Mary Ila Macfarlane

Content Overview

Open online from Wednesday, September 9, 8:00 AM MDT, to Friday, September 17, 5:00 PM MDT, the survey gauged opinion on prominent policy issues, philosophy, and political dynamics; as well as candidate preference and assessment questions for five 2010 Colorado Republican primary races and one Democratic primary race.

Participant Demographics

The survey was not intended to measure a representative cross-section of Colorado voters and thus has no direct predictive power on upcoming primary elections. It was however intended primarily for Right-leaning Colorado political activists to express their beliefs and preferences. The survey was controlled to prevent multiple responses from a single IP address. The survey included 500 participants, self-identified as follows (results may not add up to 100.0%, due to rounding), not all of whom completed the entire survey: Registered Colorado Voters: Yes (96.8%), No (3.2%) Political Party: Republican (83.1%); Unaffiliated (10.4%); Libertarian (3.8%); Democrat (1.5%); Green (0.2%); Other (0.4%). Gender: Male (62.9%); Female (37.1%). Age: 18-29 (16.1%); 30-39 (18.9%); 40-49 (21.2%); 50-59 (25.4%); 60-69 (16.1%); 70 or older (2.3%) Region: The 7 county Denver Metro Area (58.1%); The Front Range/I-25 corridor other than the Denver Metro Area (23.5%); Western Slope (12.3%); Eastern Plains (3.8%); I-70/Ski Country (2.3%); Race: Non-Hispanic White (84.3%); Other/Multiple Race (8.1%); Hispanic or Latino (4.9%); American Indian (1.1%); African American (0.8%); Asian American (0.8%). Marital Status: Married (71.6%); Single—Never Married (19.7%); Divorced (7.4%); Widowed (1.3%). Highest Education: Less than high school (0.4%); High school/GED (3.0%); Some college (15.7%); 2year college (7.8%); 4-year college (29.2%); Some graduate school (13.6%); Master’s degree (21.8%); Doctoral degree (8.5%). Political Affiliation (1=Liberal; 7=Conservative): Conservative (37.9%); Strong Conservative (36.0%); Moderate Conservative (18.9%); Centrist (4.7%); Strong Liberal (0.8%); Liberal (0.8%); Moderate Liberal (0.8%). Total Conservative: 92.8% Total Liberal: 2.4%