Story Of The Little Bear
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Story of the Little Bear
8/11/2009
The bear can be compared to the fear that resides within us, which is overtaken by greed as the market moves up. Both fear and greed contribute to a large extent to the volatility culminating into large price swings. Currently with Nifty Index futures at 4790 we are experiencing mixed emotions: Corrective bottom has been formed at 4532 (greed) Intermediate top formed at 5168 (fear) We are going to look at some of the market indicators to reduce the confusion. Nifty Index Future (1 Month) is down 7.3 % from its top of 5168.5. If we compare it to the major pivot low of 3905.7 (13/7/09), we are still trading up by 22.7%.
We are trading at the upper range even after the current correction.
Let’s take a closer look at the constituents of the index, the Nifty 50 stock and find out how they are faring compared to their average counterpart. From the following tabular illustration it is clear that most of the stocks have fallen way beyond 7.3 % to the extent of 39 and 40 %.
The chart below can give us a more data to think about.
The break in Index came after several failed attempts to hold above 5100, indicating a strong distribution that must have taken place.
Gann one of the greatest traders in the early twenty centuries says that the 1st indication of reversal in trend is when the current fall exceeds the previous fall. The current correction of 633 points (51654532), exceeds the previous fall of 390 (4730-4341) points by a large extent.
Security Name
A channel formation can be seen which indicates support/target at around 43004400 coinciding with the 200 DEMA.
% FALL FROM HHV
HHV
ABB
743.85
827.25
-10.08
ACC LTD
717.85
928.8
-22.71 -25.04
AMBUJA CEMENTS ASIAN PAINTS BHARAT PETROLEUM
83.8
111.8
1687.85
1739.75
-2.98
510.25
601.2
-15.13
320.05
485
-34.01
2219.8999
2549.3999
-12.92
CAIRN INDIA
272.15
300.95
-9.57
CIPLA LTD
291.65
307.4
-5.12
380
519.9
-26.91
370.55
394.45
-6.06
2169.1001
2940
-26.22
305.25
352.2
-13.33
1640
1738.8
-5.68
2701.3501
2865.7
-5.74
BHARTI AIRTEL BHEL
DLF GAS AUTHORTY (I) GRASIM INDS HCL TECHNOLOGIES HDFC BANK HDFC LTD
1529.4
1774.7
-13.82
HIND UNILEVER
272.6
306.7
-11.12
HINDALCO INDS
125.7
144.45
-12.98
848.55
969.8
-12.50
50.5
84.8
-40.45
2218.6001
2421
-8.36
HERO HONDA
ICICI BANK IDEA CELLULAR
CLOSE
INFOSYS TECHNOLO ITC LTD
248.85
266.5
-6.62
JINDAL STEEL POW
656.8
738
-11.00
LARSEN & TOUBRO
1579.55
1729.4
-8.66
972.7
989
-1.65
1471.25
1737.3
-15.31
NATL ALUM - NEW
376.45
382
-1.45
NTPC
210.55
225
-6.42
1158.35
1277.65
-9.34
106.7
121.25
-12.00
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
888.7
901.8
-1.45
RANBAXY LABS
414.4
419.5
-1.22
positions have increased).
RELIANCE CAPITAL RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS
783.9
976.65
-19.74
178.15
321
-44.50
Chaikin's indicator
RELIANCE INDS RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
1957.5
2283.3
-14.27
1093.1
1404.5
-22.17
RELIANCE POWER
143.95
178.7
-19.45
523.8
605
-13.42
The open interest data of the Nifty futures if compared to the level when it was at 5165 shows an increase of 14 % in spite of a price correction. (Short
Volatility
measures the volatility of a security. The high volatility by the indicator is indicative of the fear in the market.
MAHINDRA & MAHIN MARUTI SUZUKI
ONGC CORPN POWER GRID CORP OF INDIA
SIEMENS LTD
2205
2499
-11.76
STEEL AUTHORITY
165.75
197.65
-16.14
STERLITE INDS (I)
804.2
873.9
-7.98
1402.9
1448
-3.11
66.3
109
-39.17
366.25
536
-31.67
STATE BANK
SUN PHARMACEUTIC SUZLON ENERGY TATA COMMUNICATI TATA MOTORS TATA POWER COMP TATA STEEL TCS UNITECH WIPRO LTD
569.95
620.9
-8.21
1271.05
1490
-14.69
499.8
585.4
-14.62
622.15
657.9
-5.43
87.15
116.65
-25.29
598.45
639.4
-6.40
To summarise the above presented data, chances of further bearishness is high. However we should tale price action take a lead over our theories. If the current market is able to sustain above the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement level (4920) we should look towards covering our shorts.
www.real-time-analysis.blogspot.com, www.realtimeanalysis.in, Email: [email protected]. Disclaimer: Any investment decisions derived from the report could not be construed as a substitution for independent judgement, hence cannot be hold responsible.
8/11/2009
The bear can be compared to the fear that resides within us, which is overtaken by greed as the market moves up. Both fear and greed contribute to a large extent to the volatility culminating into large price swings. Currently with Nifty Index futures at 4790 we are experiencing mixed emotions: Corrective bottom has been formed at 4532 (greed) Intermediate top formed at 5168 (fear) We are going to look at some of the market indicators to reduce the confusion. Nifty Index Future (1 Month) is down 7.3 % from its top of 5168.5. If we compare it to the major pivot low of 3905.7 (13/7/09), we are still trading up by 22.7%.
We are trading at the upper range even after the current correction.
Let’s take a closer look at the constituents of the index, the Nifty 50 stock and find out how they are faring compared to their average counterpart. From the following tabular illustration it is clear that most of the stocks have fallen way beyond 7.3 % to the extent of 39 and 40 %.
The chart below can give us a more data to think about.
The break in Index came after several failed attempts to hold above 5100, indicating a strong distribution that must have taken place.
Gann one of the greatest traders in the early twenty centuries says that the 1st indication of reversal in trend is when the current fall exceeds the previous fall. The current correction of 633 points (51654532), exceeds the previous fall of 390 (4730-4341) points by a large extent.
Security Name
A channel formation can be seen which indicates support/target at around 43004400 coinciding with the 200 DEMA.
% FALL FROM HHV
HHV
ABB
743.85
827.25
-10.08
ACC LTD
717.85
928.8
-22.71 -25.04
AMBUJA CEMENTS ASIAN PAINTS BHARAT PETROLEUM
83.8
111.8
1687.85
1739.75
-2.98
510.25
601.2
-15.13
320.05
485
-34.01
2219.8999
2549.3999
-12.92
CAIRN INDIA
272.15
300.95
-9.57
CIPLA LTD
291.65
307.4
-5.12
380
519.9
-26.91
370.55
394.45
-6.06
2169.1001
2940
-26.22
305.25
352.2
-13.33
1640
1738.8
-5.68
2701.3501
2865.7
-5.74
BHARTI AIRTEL BHEL
DLF GAS AUTHORTY (I) GRASIM INDS HCL TECHNOLOGIES HDFC BANK HDFC LTD
1529.4
1774.7
-13.82
HIND UNILEVER
272.6
306.7
-11.12
HINDALCO INDS
125.7
144.45
-12.98
848.55
969.8
-12.50
50.5
84.8
-40.45
2218.6001
2421
-8.36
HERO HONDA
ICICI BANK IDEA CELLULAR
CLOSE
INFOSYS TECHNOLO ITC LTD
248.85
266.5
-6.62
JINDAL STEEL POW
656.8
738
-11.00
LARSEN & TOUBRO
1579.55
1729.4
-8.66
972.7
989
-1.65
1471.25
1737.3
-15.31
NATL ALUM - NEW
376.45
382
-1.45
NTPC
210.55
225
-6.42
1158.35
1277.65
-9.34
106.7
121.25
-12.00
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
888.7
901.8
-1.45
RANBAXY LABS
414.4
419.5
-1.22
positions have increased).
RELIANCE CAPITAL RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS
783.9
976.65
-19.74
178.15
321
-44.50
Chaikin's indicator
RELIANCE INDS RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
1957.5
2283.3
-14.27
1093.1
1404.5
-22.17
RELIANCE POWER
143.95
178.7
-19.45
523.8
605
-13.42
The open interest data of the Nifty futures if compared to the level when it was at 5165 shows an increase of 14 % in spite of a price correction. (Short
Volatility
measures the volatility of a security. The high volatility by the indicator is indicative of the fear in the market.
MAHINDRA & MAHIN MARUTI SUZUKI
ONGC CORPN POWER GRID CORP OF INDIA
SIEMENS LTD
2205
2499
-11.76
STEEL AUTHORITY
165.75
197.65
-16.14
STERLITE INDS (I)
804.2
873.9
-7.98
1402.9
1448
-3.11
66.3
109
-39.17
366.25
536
-31.67
STATE BANK
SUN PHARMACEUTIC SUZLON ENERGY TATA COMMUNICATI TATA MOTORS TATA POWER COMP TATA STEEL TCS UNITECH WIPRO LTD
569.95
620.9
-8.21
1271.05
1490
-14.69
499.8
585.4
-14.62
622.15
657.9
-5.43
87.15
116.65
-25.29
598.45
639.4
-6.40
To summarise the above presented data, chances of further bearishness is high. However we should tale price action take a lead over our theories. If the current market is able to sustain above the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement level (4920) we should look towards covering our shorts.
www.real-time-analysis.blogspot.com, www.realtimeanalysis.in, Email: [email protected]. Disclaimer: Any investment decisions derived from the report could not be construed as a substitution for independent judgement, hence cannot be hold responsible.
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