Siti Project

2004 IEEE intelligent Transprtation Systems Conference

TuB5.1

Washington, D.C., USA, October 36,2004

Attilio Sacripanti SIT1 ( Safety In Tunnel Intelligence) An Italian global project

that accounts for the tunnel restoration very high price (about 300 Million Euros only for the Monte Bianco tunnel). Third for the time of restoration and the related economical loss. Today in Italy the 98% of goods are carried by trunks, from the South of Italy to the North Europe. (For example: from the 1965, 50 million cars and tmnks passed through only the Monte Bianco Tunnel). Particularly in Italy until now, safety against the maximum accident, as fire in tunnel, is: a matter of ‘)passive” approach to the problem; a collection of separate problems among road, rail and underground tunnels; a problem very far from the application of more integrate and innovative technologies, normally applied in advanced transportation fields like ITS or other structures advanced in safety like Nuclear Power Plant; a vision restricted only to the Tunnel boundaries. In contrast with this old and pragmatic vision, in July 2000 by ENEA, under the Prof. Ruhbia’s patronage and the author’s coordination, FIT (Fire In Tunnel) project was proposed. Initially its texture embraced a set of 18 research sub-projects [ 5 ] ; today this first “meta project” is evolved in SIT1 (Safety In Tunnel Intelligence), a more solid set of 35 sub-projects among ENEA, National Industries and Italian Universities; for about 20 million Euro in three years, approved by the Italian Research Ministry and submitted by TRAIN Consortium. In the next paragraphs, the stale of the art, the current evolution of tunnel safety, and the SIT1 Project philosophical approach will be discussed in a necessarily short way. The state of the art1. Highway For long-one tube tunnel, the last word on safety is certainly the Monte Bianco equipment stmctured system. The technological apparatus of the tunnel increased until the actual 41 video cameras for

Issue on Tunnel Safety The problem of accidents in tunnel is an already open issue, in particular in Italy, due to its morphology. In our country all the typologies (except under marine tunnels), are covered by more than 2000 km of roadway and rail way tunnels located. For example we have the 95% of short roadway tunnel < 1000 m till to the 12,900 Km of Frejus. Fire in Tunnel is not a very simple matter for our knowledge [1,2] as Figure 1 displays dramatically.

Fig. 1 Monte Bianco tunnel Fire accidents in tunnel are dangerous and heavy, mainly for three reasons. First, for the related human life problems, like the 39 human deaths in the Monte Bianco accident (Fig.]), and the 12 deaths and the 59 injured Tauem accident, [3] (Fig. 2)

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Secondly for the severe structural damages like: large zone of spalling (detachment and explosion of concrete), or concrete and underlying ground cracks, steel damages, and destruction of the tunnel finish equipments,

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In spite of this very effective and rapid safety response the Channel Tunnel was closed no less than 15 days for restoration.

traffic control, 116 safety boxes (with visual variable messages), 72 emergency places (every 300 m with phone and extinguisher ), 15 tuming-bays (evely 600 m allows rescue vehicles to operate in the tunnel), 116 new aspiration ores, and fresh air ventilation on one new underway emergency exit, two control room a computerized help for emergency, three special "Giano" fire brigade trunk, posted 24 h a day, (one in the middle of tunnel the other two at the opposite extremities) [4] In Japan, some time ago, tunnels were categorized in five level, in term of dangerous structures and decreasing severity class: AA, A, B, C, D, and I'.. .the categorization is determined in such way, that a probabiIity of one accident every 22 miIIion vewh is ensured, regardless of tunnel length and traffic volume.. , As matter of fact, it means to consider one unified safety approach providing a nearly equal safety level, for all tunnels! In Japan many further studies have been performed also about evacuation systems,. From the experience of earthquake, vantages and disvantages of principles, utilized in the system for people evacuation, are analysed in order to find the best way to obtain more easy exit and to lower time-queues, very dangerous during fire accidents.

3. Underground The underground safety system is the most complicated situation, especially for the evacuation problems from the tunnels or the stations until to 1100 people in Philadelphia in Sept.6 1979. In the annual of statistics it is possible to find that between the years 71 -87 it was possible to count around the world about 30 significant metro fires, including also the tragedy example of the King's Cross Underground Station fire (1987), with 31 passengers killed in the hall of the station.

4. Risk Analysis Quantification of risk is the main way to perform a good safety approach. Risk analysis started in the US for the nuclear power plants. This methodology was also applied to road and rail, in E.U. especially in the northem countries. In Denmark, it was applied to both road and railway about in 1970. In Germany in 1983 was edited the Safety Concept for Tunnels in New Railway, applied to the new high-speed rail. One study on the risk [6] conceming the dangerous goods through the tunnel (OECD-PIARC-E.U.) 1999 is showed in Fig 3 as total risk of open route versus tunnel route (frequency iyr - fatalities)

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1. Railway The most advanced safety organization for railway tunnel is, up to now, in the opinion of the author, the systems utilized in the undersea Euro Tunnel. As it is well known, this tunnel was designed with a service tunnel between the north and the south running tunnels. After the 1996 fre accident, inside safety systems have been improved much more. Fortunately, this accident occurred with no deaths or seriously injured, but the damages were very high, nevertheless the very big emergency organization involved: about 450 firemen from France and England, who exhausted at least 250 oxygen portable reservoirs. [5]

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In Italy, until now, PRA is very far from tunnels, roads or, other transport systems, but a new E.U. Directive, asking for it, is in preparation.

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The SITI innovative vision 1. Static v/s Dynamic consideration. The first different and meaningful approach, applied in SIT1 was a comparative evaluation among new and old highway, road, railroad and underground tunnels. This methodological approach showed clearly that classical safety vision, until now utilized, must be improved at light of the new results obtained. This study let us not only to understand the deeper differences among highway, roadway and underground tunnel safety, but very important, it lets to clarify unknown similarities and methodological connections. The aim of the project is the application of ITS technologies with regard to prevention;, intervention and restoration of sever accidents in tunnels [7,8,9,10,1I]. For example, interactive Virtual Reality, that will be the actual border in the ITS projects, could be very useful as operational support in emergency situations for long tunnel, (by sending, a 3DVR interactive image of the tunnel, without smoke, with thermal field and car positions inside, to the Fire Brigade before intervention). This comparative analysis of tunnel safety let us to introduce and define the concept of “Dynamic Tunnel”, a different point of view, that is opposite, for example, to the Japanese unified safety vision. A conclusion of this analyses is that, considering some kinetics parameters, one tunnel is never equal to itself. In other words, each tunnel has its own degree of risk, variable during the daytime [ 5 ] . Would this approach be useful to Safety? Substantially it is ! At first, it underlies the importance of the dynamic evolution of the system, or the time dependence role of the kinetic parameters, and for second it underlies the necessity of a systemic vision for tunnel safety. These two important improvements are the basis of the safety methodology named: “Effective Safety” that will be built with the SITI research project.

Till now the tunnels are described by “Static” parameters as length, width, height, historic number of accident and so on. Now in the “Dynamic” vision, the tunnel description will be extended by new random parameters, changeable in time, as: infensip of traflc flow, ageing of the system structures, etc. Naturally, this tunnel “dynamical” description is connected to the stochastic properties linking his risk state to a straightforward time dependence, (for ex. in “dynamic” roadway tunnels description, it is necessary to bring-in new parameters as “dynamic probabilistic occupancy”[5 1, hazard rate functions, etc. [12]). The most important parameter in term of “probabilistic occupancy”, for road tunnel, is the car number point flow, while, for railway and underground tunnel, this parameter is the people number flow. In time-space, Poisson discrete distribution describes road traffic phenomena, for which the average probability of a passage is constant in time and independent on the number of previous event, [5] in this situation, the order of events cannot be interchanged. Baccelli, Hasenfuss and Schmidt [I31 give some probabilistic conditions based on coupling, for a Poisson point process; these authors connect these conditions to the queuing theory in a homogeneous Markov process. In fluid queues with several merging inputs, stochastic integrals are used for describing the total amount of cars aniving during a time interval of random length. If we pay attention to the probability of a traffic accident in a tunnel, the time dependent hazard function rate could have the special form derived by the Weibull three parameters distribution. This last could describe traffic phenomena for which the accident is a random occurrence. So, those ones are accidents for which the hazard rate function h (t) would be decreasing for safety. systems or increasing with a snowballing effect for the rise of cars dynamic probabilistic occupancy in the tunnel.:

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rapid evacuation, are fundamental arguments in the emergency planning. However, it will be useful to consider these aspects also during the project phase of tunnel in a sort of system planning safety organization. The systemic vision underlies same problems for underground. The system focalised for the underground by the time dependent risk analysis is formed not only by the upper road system (for intervention) but also by the complex incoming tunnel, station, out-coming tunnel. In addition, also in this case it is easily to understand that project engineering must take account of these problems in the early phase of the new underground project. Safety is driven by two principles: a) minimization of technical breakdowns; b) minimization of human error. But it worth’s to remember that it is not possible to improve a safe system like a Nuclear Power Plant over one accident per 10 million (in term of safety unity- like running time, passenger per km and so on). Achieving a total safety beyond this minimum quantity of accident is practically impossible. The solution of the overall problem depends on the global safety of the complete system. Then, when safety of one part of one old system is improved it means that you must implement this part by an addition, rather than an optimisation of the part. These actions make the system increasingly complex. Really this means that the old system tends to be ageing or over regulated, in one world “rigid”, and the accident very often results from a combination of factors none of which can alone cause an accident, or even a serious one, therefore such combination of “silly” situations is difficult to detect or to recover using traditional analysis, [20] (remember the burning role of butter in Bianco fire). 2. The “Effective Safety” concept. SITI project deeply revised the overall approach of the tunnels safety. So in this new kind of approach, instead of Japanese

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This last tragic occurrence will be verified if, regarding the Weibull parameters, the following conditions are satisfied a >1; p ’0; 0 5 5 5 t 5 m. The most general models of hazard rate functions are the Multivariate Conditional Hazard Rate Functions. With these general functions it is possible to introduce a hazard rate ordering, among some “dynamic” parameters, by introducing the notion of positive dependence for dependent random lifetime parameters. This notion is useful for ordering kinetic parameters by special weights. In SITI project many preventive ideas have been transferring from ITS world to tunnel safety. As examples: vehicle control (in case of dangerous transportation) named “Aware Vehicle”;, communication between “Intelligent Tunnel” and “Aware Vehicle”, control of traffic, interaction between flow traffic management and “Intelligent Tunnel”, and so on. The topic of the ITS application in SITI was the optimisation of emergency planning derived by time dependent risk analysis, [14,15,16,17,18,19] for fire accident in all kind of tunnels, without forgetting the paramount importance of the system in which the tunnel is embedded. The integrated approach. 1. The systemic vision. As it is shown by the time dependent risk analysis it is not possible to consider the tunnel as a simply tube for example in a mountain. In the new dynamic vision, it is capital for highway tunnel analysis to pay attention to the connected route system before and after the tunnel. The availability of access for having support in easy and short time, the capability of a

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minimize the heavy time dependence of the problem, but it is important to remember that a chain is no stronger than its weakest link. The comparative evaluation force us to observe that “Effective Safety” for roadway claims that road tunnel needs to become intelligent, with first target car safety, and indirect primary target people safety. Instead “Effective Safety” shows us that for rail and underground tunnel, such kind of approach is unsafe, it is very effective that train becomes intelligent and not tunnel. Again with primary target train safety and indirect primary target people safety. 3. SITI The overview of 35 integrated research projects. At the end, we show the complete connected organization of the SITI Project the description of dynamic environment goes throughout a very deep understanding of the global kinetics of the overall “dynamic parameters” describing the new concept of “Dynamic Tunnel”: Underground diagnostic. Intelligent Tunnel system. Human Factors pre andpost accident. Aware Trunk. Intelligent Door Training ovganization systems. Classical risk analysis. Classical Risk monitoring. Source term. 3 0 snioke propagation study. Themzal qualifications of structural tunnel materials .Therm0 structural models. Thermo structural superstructure models . Geothecnical analysis. Underground cars inflammable project principles. Emergency simulation systems. Queues management simulation systems. Emergency lightning systems. Heat exchange among air-water and concrete. Fire suppression system. Control and Emergency Robot. Smoke detection system. Interactive Virtual Reality Tunnel model . Intelligent decision support system . Inshtmentation for infrastructures. Time dependent risk analysis. Application to individual and collective risk . Cost benefit analysis. Validation risk analysis. Validation RAMS. Fractalfront flame modelling. Reliability of electronic safety system. Infield experimentationsfor prototypes.

methodology, there are no tracks of the unified categorization of tunnel risk, independent from his length or his traffic volume, nor of classic risk analysis result like a certain number of death every “tot” years and so on. In effect, the use of time dependent risk analysis added to ITS technologies breeds the methodological concept of “Effective Safety” for each tunnel in his System. It seems obvious that a short tunnel does not need the same safety equipments of a long one, hut what about a long connected series of short ones? The concept of “Effective Safety” is a flexible methodology applicable to every tunnel in his system situation. It comes from different linked sources, like the concept of “Djmamic Tunnef’, derived by the time dependent risk analysis, the studies about the system ageing or the response capabilify against fire accident, the application of the proper technologies, the optimisation o f emergency response, the integration of the system conditions to the tunnel conditions, (for example a lot of very near short tunnels connected by a roadway like Autostrada dei trafori in Italy), the consideration of different time scenarios, ex. This flexible methodology is expressed by the following three time steps, considering the proper tunnel system description: A) Preventive a) Interactive safety between tunnel and aware vehicle; b) Active safety between intelligent tunnel or control robot (for short tunnels) and all vehicles; B) Interventionist Fire detection and suppression systems; C) Synergetic Emergency optimization by interactive VR and intelligent decision support systems and emergency operators The division in three logical and integrated time blocks of the safety measures, allows us to approach the risk in more flexible way for each kind of tunnel, and with the ITS technologies utilized it is possible also to

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[I61 R. Webby, M. O'Connor Judeemental and statistical time series forecastine:a review of the literature. lnt. Journal of Forecasting 12 (1996) 91-118. [ I 71 R.Kqsztofowicz Bayesian Forecasting via deterministic models Risk Analysis vo1.19 No4 (1999). [lS]G.Zang, E.Patuwo,M.Y.Hu, Forecasting with artificial neural networks: The state of the art Int. Journ. of forecasting 14 (1998) 35-62. [19] BSmith B. M. Williams,R.K. Oswald Comuarison of oarametric and non uarametric models for traffic flow forecastinp Transp. Research part C 10 (2002) 303 -321. [20] Alamberti R. The uaradoxes of almost totally safe transuortation systems. Safety Science 37 (2001) 109-126

References [ l ] Woodbum P.J., Britter R.E. CFD Simulation of Tunnel Fire -Part 1Fire Safety Journal 26 (1996) 35-62 [2] Woodbum P.J., Britter R.E. CFD Simulation of Tunnel Fire -Part I1 Fire Safety Journal 26 (1996) 63-90 [3] Leitner A . The fire catastroohe in the Tauern Tunnel: exuerience and conclusion for the Austrian guidelines. 2001 Tunnelling and Underground Space Technologies 16 (2001) 217-223. [4] Vuilleumier F., Weatherill A, Crausaz B.Safehl asoects of railwavs and road tunnels Tunnelling and Underground Space Technologies 17 (2002) 153-158. [5] Pacilio N, Sacripanti A. Tunnel lntelligenti Rome 2001 ENEA Ed ISBN 88-8286-0004-3 [6] Hbj N.P., Kroger W Risk Analvsis on highway and Railroad in E.U. Safety Science 40 (2002) 337-357 [7]M.Brouke & P. Varaiya A theow of traffic flow in automated highway svstems Transp. Research C vo1.4 (1996) 181-210. [S]A.Messmer & M.Papageorgiu Route diversion control in motorway networks via nonlinear outimization IEEE Transactions on control systems techno. vo1.3 (1995) 144-153. [9] B.L.Smith, B.M. Williams and R.K. Oswald. Comoarison of oarameiric and non oarametric models for traffic flow forecastine. Transp. Research C vol.10 (2002) . , 303-321. [IOlA.Sing, S.Li A oredictabilitv analvsis of network traffic Computer network 39 (2002) 329-345. 1111F.Middelham Predictabi1itv:somethoughts on modeline. Fut. Generation Computer System 17 (2001) 627-636. [12]Hensher D.A. F.L.Mannering Hazard based duration model and their auulication to transuort analvsis. Transport review (1994) vol 14 63,82. [ 131 F. Baccelli, S.Hasenfuss, K Schmidt: Transient and Stationarv Waiting Times - Linear Svstems with Poisson h u t . Queueing System Vo1.26 ( 1997) 301-342 [14] B.M Williams Modeling and forecasting vehicular traffic flow as a seasonal stochastic time series urocess. Doc. Dissertation University of Virginia 1999. [I5]M.M.R.Williams, M.C.Thome the estimation of failure rates for low urohahilitv events. Progr. In Nuclear Energy vo1.3 1 (1997) 343-476.

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