Revitalization

Article written by: Wayne Fortin Retail Redevelopment: University Square The proposed redevelopment site of the University square shopping area is located about 2 miles from San Diego State University on University Avenue and 58th street, which is 1 minute north of State Route 94 and 3 minutes south of the California Interstate 8. The redevelopment project area consisting of University square-shopping area is comprises of about 19 acres of redevelopment space. The surrounding area includes lower middle class residential properties as well as many rental properties to cater to the surrounding areas demographic population. The project area will be administered by using tax increment revenue to finance improvements throughout the entire University Square shopping area including pedestrian and street related improvements to increase and improve foot and vehicular traffic additional improvements will include a new comfort station, landscaping, utility, and vehicular caution signs around the premises to attempt to make the parking lot safer than it is right now for pedestrians. The main project objectives are to reduce and eliminate blight in the proposed project area thus also leading to positive externalities such as increasing the vitality of surrounding neighborhood by economically stimulating the proposed site, which will create more jobs, create a safer surrounding thereby also lowering crime rates. Objectives may include recreational goals to invite and

keep potential shoppers, rather than attracting ‘buy and go’ shoppers, beautification improvements to eliminate environmental deficiencies within the proposed site in the form of social, physical and all forms of blight. The encouragement to bring on more retailers to improve local commerce by recruiting all business willing big or small, this can be done with the planned revitalization efforts and/or permitting assistance and local government subsidies. Creating a retail theme such as entertainment land uses in parts of the community to bring in more traffic and thereby creating a more unified community through strengthening the bonds within business and residential entities. Achieve physical environment aesthetics when it comes to new development and architecture to enhance community feel and create an identity among the community, thus making a University square a more desired area by citizens and business persons turning it into a efficient and profitable center for business and everyday needs. When it comes to land use, redevelopment will pose a vital role in the expansion of University Square shopping area, thus minimizing the harmful effects of urban sprawl in the surrounding community. Revitalization will play an important role in making sure that the land is utilized in its highest and best use, making sure the cities codes and polices are met along with the general and community plan. Certain steps in revitalization must be facilitated in order to meet the objectives of the revitalization efforts proposed. In order to properly

assess the surrounding communities needs, a residential survey should be taken to analyze their propensity to spend along with shopping patterns. When we find out what their willing purchasing power is we must find out how much money is allocated to shopping goods, convenience goods and services. When we have this study we have properly strategies what kind of retailers we want to recruit into our proposed revitalization area. When we look at the structure of the University Square shopping area we see that there is a agglomeration of specialty soft good stores, and other hard good store formats which require anywhere from 5,000sq ft to big box retailer would greatly benefit the shopping by attracting the large amount of shoppers to the area and thereby walking by the small stores along the way generating potential business to the smaller business’s, also not to mention the revenue these big box retailers would generate for the city in the form of parcel tax on these box retailers as well as raising the overall value of surrounding real estate thereby taking advantage of the tax increment financing for the proposed revitalization earmarking the future revenue to finance such a project. As we know income and education is linked with employment and socioeconomic status thus giving us a better idea of retail demand in the area mainly because income is one of the best predictor of retail sales and retail sales are compared to income averages which give you an idea of what types of goods are involved in the proportions of the

given incomes. As we take a look at the information provided to us by the 2000 census we see that the total area population of our proposed site is listed at 58,883 people those of which are 56.7% white, 24.4% Hispanic, 10.9% black or African American, 0.9% American Indian and Alaska Native, 12.7% Asian and 12.6% other. Demographics wise we see that 31,000 people out of the 58,883 are over 25 years of age, 78% hold a high school diploma and 26% have attained a bachelors degree. There are a total of 21,313 housing units where 7,961 are owner occupied and 12,736 are renter occupied while 616 sit vacant. The median value of a house in 2001 dollars was projected at $187,600. We must factor these statistics along with our proposed site and trade area definition to see which retailers will conform to these requirements. The main anchors we will use are Big 5, Food for less and the massive supermarket like 99 cent only store, all of which are already existent in the University Square shopping development with the exclusion of Big 5 in which we will go into more detail to later in this proposal. When it comes to other competing. We propose to perform and overall revitalization effort but with a major emphasis in cosmetic improvements in the aging University Square Plaza shopping district we also need to place emphasis on off site improvements to improve traffic circulation to attract new major anchor tenants. Walkways must also be constructed to make sure that there is a comfortable and safe walk able pathway from retailer to retailer, we

must not forget that security and cleanliness is a big importance for overall and vital well being. As we know most retailers require ease of parking and visibility and the proposed revitalization of University Square will cater to those needs as well. In developing a strong revitalization effort for the University Square Shopping Center, the trade area was defined based on the demographics of the surrounding neighborhoods and by using the Retail Gravitaion model called Reilly’s Law. By comparing shopping factors, Reilly’s Law of Retail Gravitation estimates the distance customers will travel to buy goods and services. Based on the idea that people want to shop in larger areas yet their desire declines the longer and farther they may travel to get to these places, we calculated the maximum distance customers will travel to shop. To determine the trade area using Reilly’s Law we took into account our location and the three main competitors/retail centers within the area. Attaining the total estimated time and total estimated distance, Mapquest.com was used. The University Square Shopping Center (with a square footage of 867, 8715) had neighboring retail centers Campus Plaza, Rolando Shopping Center and Marketplace at the grove. Retail Center A, just 2 minutes (0.99 miles) north from University Square Shopping Center is called Campus Plaza with a square footage of 112,000. Retail Center B, is also 2 minutes (0.99 miles) east from University Square Shopping Center is the Rolando

Shopping Center which has the square footage of 110, 458. Retail Center C, is 2 minutes (1.30 miles) south of University Square Shopping Center is the Marketplace at the Grove with a square footage of 2,439,360. The original Reilly’s law dealt with population and mileage but adjusting to Riley’s world of modern trade market analysis, square feet and time is used. By taking the distance in minutes and square footage from University Square Shopping Center and each retail center, we were able to depict where we would establish the trade area boundaries with plugging in this information into the Reilly’s Law formula. From the new center (University Square Shopping Center) to Retail Center A, trade area was defined by 1.47 minutes away. From the new center to Retail Center B, trade area was defined also by 1.47 minutes away. From the new center to Retail Center C, trade area was defined by 0.75minutes away. Although many times trade areas are affected by major freeways, lakes, mountains, rivers or lakes, there would be modifications to the boundaries. Because the University Square Shopping Center is only surrounded by residential with nearly the same demographics, there were no major modifications to the trade area boundaries. The demographics of this trade area according to the Census, has a total population of 56, 883 where 50% are male (28,421) and 50% are female (28, 462). 79.1% are 18-65 years of age, 11.1% are 18

and under while only 9.8% are 65 years of age and older. With a median household income between $31,666 and $38, 563 this area is mainly composed of middle class to low income with 64.7% in the labor force. In education, 26.5% (8,257) have a Bachelor’s degree or higher and 78% (24,287) is a High School graduate or higher. These demographics conform to the requirements of retailer’s selected based on specific statistics from the Census. Big 5 was selected because the median age of this area is 26.9 and the Big 5 that will be added to the revitalization prefers an average age of 30. Big 5 also prefers that that younger the average age of target households, the better. Population density required within Big 5’s trade area is a minimum of 40,000 people and 15,000 households which is perfect because this area has a population of 56,883 and 21,313 households. The median household income required for a Big 5 is $35,000 and the median household income is between $31,666 and $38,563. Another retailer chosen for this revitalization was Baskin Robbins. Baskin Robbins, like Big 5 preferred a median household income of $30,000+. Baskin Robbins requires a 15,000 residential population within a 3 minute drive time, but with residential surrounding the University Square Shopping Center that would be no problem. A typical site for a Baskin Robbins would be in mixed use or tenant community shopping center which the University Square Shopping Center is. Since in this area there are a higher percentage of children, college students

and adults who have children in the area, the Baskin Robbins would attract customers daily. About 16.2 % of families and 25.2% of individuals are below the poverty level we took in to consideration for a need of a Food 4 Less and a 99 cents only store as two of the main anchors. In hopes to bring more customers to this shopping center not only will there be a primary trade area of convenience goods but also a secondary where people can shop and stay in order to provide a sense of community. With major anchor stores like Food 4 Less, 99 cent only and a Big 5 on the north, east and west of the parking lot it creates a central focus to make the area identifiable. To create a diversity of attractions, other retail stores and restaurants will be added to enhance in the revitalization based the community’s niche markets. Safety would be provided by Security available in the huge frontal lot and side walks and a few speed bumps will be added to ensure safety for pedestrians. With a trade area of 0.75-1.47 minutes away, this would also welcome residents to walk from their homes to this area creating a type of lifestyle center that has a physical concentration of activities. Urban beautification would also be taken to account when adding benches and greenery to create a more appealing and attractive area. This plan will lead to enhanced development adjacent to this project area because a newly revitalized area such as this will lower crime rates, lower surrounding neighborhood blight and lower the rate

of neighborhoods to have to travel elsewhere for their needs. This plan would then lead to homeowner percentages to rise because of convenience; tax increment would change and will bring about more jobs and more revenue for the area. Thus, the vitality of the neighborhood and the overall well-being of the community is greatly increased.