Pts Morning Call 12-08-09
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THE DAILY BRIEF 2385 Executive Center Drive, Suite 400 • Boca Raton, Florida 33431 Phone: (561) 922-5266 • Fax: (561) 623-6235 www.prismtradingschool.com
Tuesday
12.08.2009
CURRENT MARKET SENTIMENT
The indices struggled to finish flat at 10390 (Dow) and 1103 (S&P). With no expected economic data, except for the President’s commentary on Jobs, the futures are pointing south due to further
sovereign debt default. Once again, would investors shake off the news as the first news of Dubai? Technically, the S&P must hold at 1096 in order to have a chance to end the week on a positive note.
PRISM CALL
Market sold off hard due to fear of more sovereign nation default. Gold and oil are down nicely as well. The anomalies are to buy the lows for a quick bounce. The next low is 1091. If that holds, 1091 -1096 will be the demarcation line. Be a buyer of the first move.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR TIME
INDICATOR
RANGE
EXPECTATION
INDU & SPUZ TECHNICALS PRIOR
ACTUAL
INDICES INDU (DOW) SPUZ (S&P)
NO ECONOMIC NUMBERS TODAY!
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
10315 10347
10398
10449
10481
1095
1105
1111
1115
1099
Page |1 RISK DISCLAIMER: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading equities. Trading is not for every investor and only risk capital should be used. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Prism Trading School, LLC (“Prism”) and all individuals affiliated with Prism assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Any person who chooses to use this information as a basis for their trading assumes all the liability and risk for themselves and hereby and absolutely agrees to indemnify and hold harmless Prism, its principals, agents and employees. All of the material contained herein is believed to be correct, however, Prism will not be held responsible for accidental oversights, typos or incorrect information from sources that generate fundamental and technical information. Prism does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information, and does not warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of Prism materials is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Prism affiliates may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
FOREIGN MARKETS
NEWS
%
5218.75
91.91
-1.73
DAX
5663.03
121.72
-2.1
HANG SENG
22060.52
264.44
-1.18
NIKKEI
10140.47
27.13
-0.27
CHINA
3296.664
35.233
-1.06
MARKET
PRICE
FTSE
WEAK
BA
DD
KO
HPQ
WMT
IBM
UTX
SEC probing high-frequency strategies - Reuters.com AIG American Intl: Feinberg said to lift $500,000 salary limit for AIG executives - Bloomberg.com (30.17 )
COMMODITY PRICES
DOW STOCKS TO WATCH STRONG
WLL Whiting Petroleum announces completion of discovery well at its Lewis & Clark prospect flowing at initial rate of 1,970 BOE/D (65.00 )
COMMODITY
PRICE
OIL
73.21
0.72
GOLD
1154.6
9.40
XOM
Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB+; Outlook negative European market summary; shares trade lower led by banks: FTSE 1.19%, CAC -1.08%, DAX -1.29% UAE stock markets continue to slump on Dubai World concerns – Xinhua UK House prices rise in November – Reuters
UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES
UK manufacturing output flat in October – AP
STOCKS UPGRADED COMPANY
BROKERAGE FIRM
Suntech Power (STP)
Thomas Weisel
JA Solar (JASO)
Thomas Weisel
M&T Bank (MTB)
SunTrust
Neutral >> Buy
61.43
Forest Oil (FST)
Morgan Stanley
Underweight >> Equal Weight
19.17
Ericsson (ERIC)
HSBC
Neutral >> Overweight
9.55
RATINGS CHANGE
Underweight >> Market Weight Underweight >> Market Weight
PRICE
TARGET
17.05
Dubai official confuses mkt over Dubai World support – DJ
4.95
NEWS
German industrial production slips back – BBC
85
Japan unveils $81 bln stimulus, limited impact seen – Reuters Banks, U.S. spar over TARP repayment – WSJ Airlines appear headed for recovery – WSJ
Moody's announces further downgrades to Dubai Inc. corporates Meredith Whitney on CNBC says she's bearish now because the govt has been supporting the capital markets, and they are out of bullets Meredith Whitney says TARP repayment makes it clear the govt needs money
Page |2 www.prismtradingschool.com
Moody's puts U.S., U.K. on chopping block – WSJ China seeing V-shaped recovery, Central Bank Deputy says Reuters.com
EARNINGS
TEL Tyco Electronics expects Q1 results to be at high end of prior outlook range; sees EPS of $0.35-$0.39 vs $0.38 First Call consensus CELG Celgene: MM-015 results finally revealed and impress - Merriman (55.53 ) MMM 3M reaffirms FY09 guidance; sees FY10 revs above consensus and FY10 EPS in-line (77.91 ) AZO AutoZone beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line (153.36 ) EQR FBR Capital is introducing 2011 and 2012 FFO and AFFO estimates commercial and apartment REITs, and downgrading BXP, BMR, and upgrading AVB and EQR HRB H & R Block beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY10 EPS in-line U.S. Chain store sales declined 1.27% in Dec 5 week vs -0.1% in prior week, according to ICSC/Goldman Sachs KIM Kimco Realty announces 25 mln share common stock offering (13.08 -0.51) FDX FedEx expects to exceed Q2 earnings guidance KR Kroger misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY10 EPS below consensus (22.85 ) IRF Intl Rectifier sees Q2 revs tracking toward high end of previous guidance of $185-200 mln vs the $193 mln First Call consensus (20.30 ) MCD McDonald's announces global comparable sales increased 0.7% in November (61.93 ) APC Anadarko Petro: Kosmos Energy announces that the Odum-2 appraisal well confirmed the its Odum oil discovery (58.27 )
Page |3 www.prismtradingschool.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Symbol
S7
S6
S5
S4
S3
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
1101.15
1104.93
1108.72
1109.88
1111.05
1114.82
1118.60
1120.94
1124.71
Sectors SPX
1085.15 1088.93 1091.27 1095.04 1098.82 1099.99
INDU
10231.86 10263.56 10283.14 10314.84 10346.54 10356.33 10366.08 10397.82 10429.56 10439.31 10449.10 10480.80 10512.50 10532.08 10563.78
NDX
1750.60 1757.53 1761.82 1768.76 1775.69 1777.84
XBD
110.02 41.79 3975.34 663.19 178.87 484.53 782.97 402.73 303.91 400.28
BKX TRAN OIX OSX XNG CYC UTY DRG RLX
110.80 42.16 3993.65 666.12 180.26 487.95 786.58 404.77 305.11 401.73
111.28 42.39 4004.96 667.93 181.12 490.06 788.82 406.04 305.86 402.62
112.06 42.76 4023.28 670.86 182.51 493.49 792.44 408.08 307.06 404.07
112.84 43.13 4041.59 673.79 183.90 496.91 796.05 410.12 308.26 405.52
1779.97
1786.92
1793.86
1796.00
1798.14
1805.08
1812.01
1816.30
1823.24
113.08 113.32 114.10 114.88 115.12 115.36 116.14 116.92 117.40 118.18 43.25 43.36 43.73 44.10 44.22 44.33 44.70 45.07 45.30 45.67 4047.25 4052.88 4071.22 4089.55 4095.19 4100.84 4119.16 4137.47 4148.78 4167.10 674.70 675.60 678.53 681.47 682.37 683.27 686.20 689.13 690.94 693.87 184.33 184.75 186.15 187.54 187.97 188.40 189.79 191.18 192.04 193.43 497.97 499.02 502.45 505.87 506.93 507.98 511.41 514.83 516.94 520.37 797.17 798.28 801.91 805.53 806.64 807.76 811.38 814.99 817.23 820.85 410.76 411.38 413.43 415.48 416.11 416.74 418.78 420.82 422.09 424.13 308.64 309.01 310.21 311.41 311.79 312.16 313.36 314.56 315.31 316.51 405.97 406.41 407.86 409.31 409.76 410.20 411.65 413.10 413.99 415.44
Tradeables SPY DIA QQQQ QLD IWM OIH XLE FAZ FAS SRS SDS USO SKF
108.87 109.27 109.52 109.91 110.31 102.41 102.73 102.93 103.25 103.57 43.07 43.25 43.36 43.54 43.72 52.53 52.97 53.24 53.69 54.13 59.03 59.31 59.48 59.76 60.04 109.88 110.82 111.40 112.34 113.28 53.89 54.27 54.51 54.89 55.27 17.81 18.23 18.49 18.91 19.33 64.61 66.24 67.25 68.89 70.52 7.33 7.49 7.59 7.74 7.90 34.55 34.80 34.96 35.21 35.46 36.23 36.50 36.67 36.94 37.21 22.92 23.27 23.49 23.84 24.19
110.43 103.67 43.77 54.27 60.12 113.57 55.39 19.46 71.03 7.95 35.54 37.29 24.30
110.56 103.77 43.83 54.40 60.21 113.86 55.51 19.59 71.53 8.00 35.62 37.38 24.41
110.95 104.09 44.01 54.85 60.49 114.80 55.89 20.01 73.17 8.15 35.87 37.65 24.76
111.35 104.41 44.19 55.29 60.77 115.74 56.27 20.43 74.80 8.31 36.12 37.92 25.12
Page |4 www.prismtradingschool.com
111.47 104.51 44.24 55.43 60.85 116.03 56.39 20.56 75.31 8.36 36.20 38.00 25.22
111.60 104.61 44.30 55.56 60.94 116.32 56.51 20.69 75.81 8.41 36.28 38.09 25.33
111.99 104.93 44.48 56.01 61.22 117.26 56.89 21.11 77.45 8.56 36.53 38.36 25.68
112.39 105.25 44.66 56.45 61.50 118.20 57.27 21.53 79.08 8.72 36.78 38.63 26.03
112.64 105.45 44.77 56.73 61.67 118.78 57.51 21.79 80.09 8.82 36.94 38.80 26.25
113.03 105.77 44.95 57.17 61.95 119.72 57.89 22.21 81.73 8.97 37.19 39.07 26.60
Tuesday
12.08.2009
CURRENT MARKET SENTIMENT
The indices struggled to finish flat at 10390 (Dow) and 1103 (S&P). With no expected economic data, except for the President’s commentary on Jobs, the futures are pointing south due to further
sovereign debt default. Once again, would investors shake off the news as the first news of Dubai? Technically, the S&P must hold at 1096 in order to have a chance to end the week on a positive note.
PRISM CALL
Market sold off hard due to fear of more sovereign nation default. Gold and oil are down nicely as well. The anomalies are to buy the lows for a quick bounce. The next low is 1091. If that holds, 1091 -1096 will be the demarcation line. Be a buyer of the first move.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR TIME
INDICATOR
RANGE
EXPECTATION
INDU & SPUZ TECHNICALS PRIOR
ACTUAL
INDICES INDU (DOW) SPUZ (S&P)
NO ECONOMIC NUMBERS TODAY!
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
10315 10347
10398
10449
10481
1095
1105
1111
1115
1099
Page |1 RISK DISCLAIMER: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading equities. Trading is not for every investor and only risk capital should be used. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Prism Trading School, LLC (“Prism”) and all individuals affiliated with Prism assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Any person who chooses to use this information as a basis for their trading assumes all the liability and risk for themselves and hereby and absolutely agrees to indemnify and hold harmless Prism, its principals, agents and employees. All of the material contained herein is believed to be correct, however, Prism will not be held responsible for accidental oversights, typos or incorrect information from sources that generate fundamental and technical information. Prism does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information, and does not warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of Prism materials is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Prism affiliates may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
FOREIGN MARKETS
NEWS
%
5218.75
91.91
-1.73
DAX
5663.03
121.72
-2.1
HANG SENG
22060.52
264.44
-1.18
NIKKEI
10140.47
27.13
-0.27
CHINA
3296.664
35.233
-1.06
MARKET
PRICE
FTSE
WEAK
BA
DD
KO
HPQ
WMT
IBM
UTX
SEC probing high-frequency strategies - Reuters.com AIG American Intl: Feinberg said to lift $500,000 salary limit for AIG executives - Bloomberg.com (30.17 )
COMMODITY PRICES
DOW STOCKS TO WATCH STRONG
WLL Whiting Petroleum announces completion of discovery well at its Lewis & Clark prospect flowing at initial rate of 1,970 BOE/D (65.00 )
COMMODITY
PRICE
OIL
73.21
0.72
GOLD
1154.6
9.40
XOM
Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB+; Outlook negative European market summary; shares trade lower led by banks: FTSE 1.19%, CAC -1.08%, DAX -1.29% UAE stock markets continue to slump on Dubai World concerns – Xinhua UK House prices rise in November – Reuters
UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES
UK manufacturing output flat in October – AP
STOCKS UPGRADED COMPANY
BROKERAGE FIRM
Suntech Power (STP)
Thomas Weisel
JA Solar (JASO)
Thomas Weisel
M&T Bank (MTB)
SunTrust
Neutral >> Buy
61.43
Forest Oil (FST)
Morgan Stanley
Underweight >> Equal Weight
19.17
Ericsson (ERIC)
HSBC
Neutral >> Overweight
9.55
RATINGS CHANGE
Underweight >> Market Weight Underweight >> Market Weight
PRICE
TARGET
17.05
Dubai official confuses mkt over Dubai World support – DJ
4.95
NEWS
German industrial production slips back – BBC
85
Japan unveils $81 bln stimulus, limited impact seen – Reuters Banks, U.S. spar over TARP repayment – WSJ Airlines appear headed for recovery – WSJ
Moody's announces further downgrades to Dubai Inc. corporates Meredith Whitney on CNBC says she's bearish now because the govt has been supporting the capital markets, and they are out of bullets Meredith Whitney says TARP repayment makes it clear the govt needs money
Page |2 www.prismtradingschool.com
Moody's puts U.S., U.K. on chopping block – WSJ China seeing V-shaped recovery, Central Bank Deputy says Reuters.com
EARNINGS
TEL Tyco Electronics expects Q1 results to be at high end of prior outlook range; sees EPS of $0.35-$0.39 vs $0.38 First Call consensus CELG Celgene: MM-015 results finally revealed and impress - Merriman (55.53 ) MMM 3M reaffirms FY09 guidance; sees FY10 revs above consensus and FY10 EPS in-line (77.91 ) AZO AutoZone beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line (153.36 ) EQR FBR Capital is introducing 2011 and 2012 FFO and AFFO estimates commercial and apartment REITs, and downgrading BXP, BMR, and upgrading AVB and EQR HRB H & R Block beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY10 EPS in-line U.S. Chain store sales declined 1.27% in Dec 5 week vs -0.1% in prior week, according to ICSC/Goldman Sachs KIM Kimco Realty announces 25 mln share common stock offering (13.08 -0.51) FDX FedEx expects to exceed Q2 earnings guidance KR Kroger misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY10 EPS below consensus (22.85 ) IRF Intl Rectifier sees Q2 revs tracking toward high end of previous guidance of $185-200 mln vs the $193 mln First Call consensus (20.30 ) MCD McDonald's announces global comparable sales increased 0.7% in November (61.93 ) APC Anadarko Petro: Kosmos Energy announces that the Odum-2 appraisal well confirmed the its Odum oil discovery (58.27 )
Page |3 www.prismtradingschool.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Symbol
S7
S6
S5
S4
S3
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
1101.15
1104.93
1108.72
1109.88
1111.05
1114.82
1118.60
1120.94
1124.71
Sectors SPX
1085.15 1088.93 1091.27 1095.04 1098.82 1099.99
INDU
10231.86 10263.56 10283.14 10314.84 10346.54 10356.33 10366.08 10397.82 10429.56 10439.31 10449.10 10480.80 10512.50 10532.08 10563.78
NDX
1750.60 1757.53 1761.82 1768.76 1775.69 1777.84
XBD
110.02 41.79 3975.34 663.19 178.87 484.53 782.97 402.73 303.91 400.28
BKX TRAN OIX OSX XNG CYC UTY DRG RLX
110.80 42.16 3993.65 666.12 180.26 487.95 786.58 404.77 305.11 401.73
111.28 42.39 4004.96 667.93 181.12 490.06 788.82 406.04 305.86 402.62
112.06 42.76 4023.28 670.86 182.51 493.49 792.44 408.08 307.06 404.07
112.84 43.13 4041.59 673.79 183.90 496.91 796.05 410.12 308.26 405.52
1779.97
1786.92
1793.86
1796.00
1798.14
1805.08
1812.01
1816.30
1823.24
113.08 113.32 114.10 114.88 115.12 115.36 116.14 116.92 117.40 118.18 43.25 43.36 43.73 44.10 44.22 44.33 44.70 45.07 45.30 45.67 4047.25 4052.88 4071.22 4089.55 4095.19 4100.84 4119.16 4137.47 4148.78 4167.10 674.70 675.60 678.53 681.47 682.37 683.27 686.20 689.13 690.94 693.87 184.33 184.75 186.15 187.54 187.97 188.40 189.79 191.18 192.04 193.43 497.97 499.02 502.45 505.87 506.93 507.98 511.41 514.83 516.94 520.37 797.17 798.28 801.91 805.53 806.64 807.76 811.38 814.99 817.23 820.85 410.76 411.38 413.43 415.48 416.11 416.74 418.78 420.82 422.09 424.13 308.64 309.01 310.21 311.41 311.79 312.16 313.36 314.56 315.31 316.51 405.97 406.41 407.86 409.31 409.76 410.20 411.65 413.10 413.99 415.44
Tradeables SPY DIA QQQQ QLD IWM OIH XLE FAZ FAS SRS SDS USO SKF
108.87 109.27 109.52 109.91 110.31 102.41 102.73 102.93 103.25 103.57 43.07 43.25 43.36 43.54 43.72 52.53 52.97 53.24 53.69 54.13 59.03 59.31 59.48 59.76 60.04 109.88 110.82 111.40 112.34 113.28 53.89 54.27 54.51 54.89 55.27 17.81 18.23 18.49 18.91 19.33 64.61 66.24 67.25 68.89 70.52 7.33 7.49 7.59 7.74 7.90 34.55 34.80 34.96 35.21 35.46 36.23 36.50 36.67 36.94 37.21 22.92 23.27 23.49 23.84 24.19
110.43 103.67 43.77 54.27 60.12 113.57 55.39 19.46 71.03 7.95 35.54 37.29 24.30
110.56 103.77 43.83 54.40 60.21 113.86 55.51 19.59 71.53 8.00 35.62 37.38 24.41
110.95 104.09 44.01 54.85 60.49 114.80 55.89 20.01 73.17 8.15 35.87 37.65 24.76
111.35 104.41 44.19 55.29 60.77 115.74 56.27 20.43 74.80 8.31 36.12 37.92 25.12
Page |4 www.prismtradingschool.com
111.47 104.51 44.24 55.43 60.85 116.03 56.39 20.56 75.31 8.36 36.20 38.00 25.22
111.60 104.61 44.30 55.56 60.94 116.32 56.51 20.69 75.81 8.41 36.28 38.09 25.33
111.99 104.93 44.48 56.01 61.22 117.26 56.89 21.11 77.45 8.56 36.53 38.36 25.68
112.39 105.25 44.66 56.45 61.50 118.20 57.27 21.53 79.08 8.72 36.78 38.63 26.03
112.64 105.45 44.77 56.73 61.67 118.78 57.51 21.79 80.09 8.82 36.94 38.80 26.25
113.03 105.77 44.95 57.17 61.95 119.72 57.89 22.21 81.73 8.97 37.19 39.07 26.60
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