Project Calculation-ashraf Hussein
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CONTINGENCY AND RISK ANALYSIS CONTINGENCIES (provisions for own cost overrun) ESTIMATED COST 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)
Material and equipment Manufacturing Engineering Outside erection, comm. and start-up Project management Other special direct costs
Contingency value % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Contingency value (to be included in the full cost calculation) Contingency value (%)
RISKS (provisions for other identified risks, e.g. political etc.) Risk factor
EXPOSURE
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Total risk provision (to be included in the full cost calculation) Total risk provision (%)
Risk provision %
tingency value Amount 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
isk provision Amount 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
The purpose of the Scenario analysis is to illustrate the "what if" effects. The bid case shall show what is included in the bid, e.g the amounts in A2, B2 and C2 shall in the bid case column be the amounts included in the full cost estimate. The best and worst case shall show the upside and downside of the project. Both best and worst case shall be realistic. Please note that for the worst case situation it is expected that all consequenses shall be incorporated. I.e. if the project is 30 days delayed, it is not likely that the only costs incurred are the delay penalties.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
BID CASE
BEST CASE
WORST CASE
I. ASSUMPTIONS A1) Cost over- / underrun (in % of cost) 1) Material and Equipment 2) Manufacturing 3) Engineering 4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up 5) Project management 6) Other special direct costs B1) Other identified costs (in % or amount) 1) 2) 3) C1) Guarantee/ rework cost assumption 1) 2) 3) D1) Schedule - Delay (number of days) E1) Process guarantees (in % or other) II. SCENARIO NET RESULTS based on above assumptions (All amounts in tender currency) NET RESULT BID CASE
#REF!
A2) Cost over- / underrun -> consequences of A1 1) Material and Equipment 2) Manufacturing 3) Engineering 4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up 5) Project management 6) Other special direct costs B2) Other identified costs -> consequences of B1 1) 2) 3) C2) Guarantee / rework costs -> consequences of C1 1) 2) 3) D2) Delay penalties (Liquidated damages) -> consequences of D1 E2) Process guarantees -> consequences of E1 COST COVERAGE AND NET RESULT EFFECT Reversal of the Contingency, Risk and Warranty provisions included in Full Cost Calculation NET RESULT OF SCENARIOS
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Material Cash Flow Table Prepare by :
PERIOD
Item Description
Grand Total
1
-----------------
Sales price
Cost price
0
IN
0
2 OUT
0
IN
0
OUT
0
0
3 IN
4 OUT
0
IN
0
5 OUT
0
IN
0
6 OUT
0
IN
0
7 OUT
0
IN
0
OUT
0
0
8 IN
9 OUT
0
IN
0
10 OUT
0
IN
11 OUT
IN
12 OUT
IN
OUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,424,441
766,973
969,920
1,142,879
1,265,820
1,900,015
2,422,282
13 IN
14 OUT
IN
15 OUT
IN
OUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,567,890
5,144,028
4,331,738
3,899,442
4,166,585
3,232,164
16 IN
17 OUT
IN
18 OUT
IN
19 OUT
IN
OUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,275,705
3,379,860
3,238,917
3,338,540
5,020,512
8,178,599
7,880,383
7,147,180
20 IN
21 OUT
IN
22 OUT
IN
0
0
0
0
7,005,697
6,222,383
7,393,147
4,119,341
23 OUT
0
IN
0
24 OUT
0
IN
0
OUT
0
0
Accumulated Gross Paid Result 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Row 1
CASH-FLOW Project name:
North Helwan 4 Stations
Country:
Egypt
Currency:
EGP
Responsible:
Mohamed Moneim
Date:
6/3/2000
Period
->
1
2
3
Milestones ->
A . "CASH FLOW" Cash In Openning Balance
0
Payments received (incl. calc. interest on advances)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other Cash In
Total Cash IN Cash Out - Material - Enineering (Manpower) - Erection - Commissioning - Training - Special Selling Cost - Finance Cost - Paid Sales & Admin Cost - Others = Direct Cost Paid - Project costs incurred, but not paid = Exposure A B. OTHER EXPOSURE DURING DELIVERY PERIOD - Committed project costs + Covered by cancellation = Cancellation costs + Residual Value + Insurance Coverage (incl. Export Guarantee Institute) - Rest exposure on On-demand guarantees = Exposure B C. RESIDUAL RISK ON FINANCING - Net Present Value of Residual Risk on Financing = Exposure C
0
0
0
= Total Project Exposure (PE) (A+B+C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total Cash Out
0
0
0
Cash Balance
0
0
0
CALCULATION OF POLITICAL RISK PROVISION FOR FINANCING Net Present Value of Residual Risk on Financing Net Present Value of Retention Money Total NPV Political Risk Provision for Financing/Retention Money
Summary Of Cashflow Opening Balance 0 0 0 Cash In 0 0 0 Cash Out 0 0 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------Balance 0 0 0 Max Project Exposure (A+B+C)
0
In Period MAPE for this country
#VALUE!
4
0
0 0
0 0
0
0
0 0 0 0
0 0
0 0 0 ---------------------0
5
6
7
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------0 0 0 0
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------0 0
0
### -284000 -565000 -104000 -208000 -1280 -347000
Total Project Exposure 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu mn mn mn mn mn mn I mn J mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn D E F G H K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA
Risk Analysis Checklist (Optional. All boxes are extendible. Add rows if necessary.)
Project: Date: App. 2
1/23/2009 RISK FACTOR
2.0
SCOPE OF WORK 1 2 3 4
3.0
CUSTOMER AND CUSTOMER COUNTRY 1 2 3 4
4.0
CONSORTIUM/JOINT VENTURE 1 2 3 4
5.0
BASIS FOR EXECUTION 1 2 3 4
6.0
CONTRACTUAL ISSUES 1 2 3 4
7.0 1 2 3 4 8.0
PRICE
CASH FLOW/PAYMENT 1 2 3 4
9.0 1 2 3 4
OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES
REMARKS
Risk Provision
Contingency
RISK MITIGATION Contract
Insurance
Co-suppliers
EXAMPLE
Risk Analysis Checklist (Optional. All boxes are extendible. Add rows if necessary.)
Project: Date: 1/23/2009 App. 2 RISK FACTOR 2.0 1 2 3
SCOPE OF WORK Scope of Work definition Engineering Procurement
4
Construction
3.0
REMARKS
Risk Provision
Contingency
Good condition. Minor risks, typical work. Worldwide procurement. Client purchased equipment. By consortium partner.
X X
Working with consortium partner.
X
RISK MITIGATION Contract
Insurance
Co-suppliers X
X X
X
CUSTOMER AND CUSTOMER COUNTRY 1 2 3 4
4.0 1 2 3 4 5.0
CONSORTIUM/JOINT VENTURE JV organisation risks
1 2
BASIS FOR EXECUTION Site conditions Project logistics
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CONTRACTUAL ISSUES Defects in warranty period Reperformance of engineering Reperformance of construction Consequential losses Damage to client property liabilities Damage to contract works liabilities Third party liabilities Technology ownership and use Liability for pollution Overall limit of liability
6.0
7.0 1 2 3 4 8.0
PRICE Completeness of data for equipment, engineering and commissioning Labour costs Freight costs Currency exposure CASH FLOW/PAYMENT
1 2 3 4 9.0 1 2 3 4
OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES
X X X X X
X
Waived. Proposed reciprocal indemnities.
X X X X
Qualified. Proposed.
X
Well known. By consortium partner. To be hedged.
X X X X
X
E-Mail : [email protected]
CONTINGENCY AND RISK ANALYSIS CONTINGENCIES (provisions for own cost overrun) ESTIMATED COST 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)
Material and equipment Manufacturing Engineering Outside erection, comm. and start-up Project management Other special direct costs
Contingency value % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Contingency value (to be included in the full cost calculation) Contingency value (%)
RISKS (provisions for other identified risks, e.g. political etc.) Risk factor
EXPOSURE
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Total risk provision (to be included in the full cost calculation) Total risk provision (%)
Risk provision %
tingency value Amount 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
isk provision Amount 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
The purpose of the Scenario analysis is to illustrate the "what if" effects. The bid case shall show what is included in the bid, e.g the amounts in A2, B2 and C2 shall in the bid case column be the amounts included in the full cost estimate. The best and worst case shall show the upside and downside of the project. Both best and worst case shall be realistic. Please note that for the worst case situation it is expected that all consequenses shall be incorporated. I.e. if the project is 30 days delayed, it is not likely that the only costs incurred are the delay penalties.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
BID CASE
BEST CASE
WORST CASE
I. ASSUMPTIONS A1) Cost over- / underrun (in % of cost) 1) Material and Equipment 2) Manufacturing 3) Engineering 4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up 5) Project management 6) Other special direct costs B1) Other identified costs (in % or amount) 1) 2) 3) C1) Guarantee/ rework cost assumption 1) 2) 3) D1) Schedule - Delay (number of days) E1) Process guarantees (in % or other) II. SCENARIO NET RESULTS based on above assumptions (All amounts in tender currency) NET RESULT BID CASE
#REF!
A2) Cost over- / underrun -> consequences of A1 1) Material and Equipment 2) Manufacturing 3) Engineering 4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up 5) Project management 6) Other special direct costs B2) Other identified costs -> consequences of B1 1) 2) 3) C2) Guarantee / rework costs -> consequences of C1 1) 2) 3) D2) Delay penalties (Liquidated damages) -> consequences of D1 E2) Process guarantees -> consequences of E1 COST COVERAGE AND NET RESULT EFFECT Reversal of the Contingency, Risk and Warranty provisions included in Full Cost Calculation NET RESULT OF SCENARIOS
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Material Cash Flow Table Prepare by :
PERIOD
Item Description
Grand Total
1
-----------------
Sales price
Cost price
0
IN
0
2 OUT
0
IN
0
OUT
0
0
3 IN
4 OUT
0
IN
0
5 OUT
0
IN
0
6 OUT
0
IN
0
7 OUT
0
IN
0
OUT
0
0
8 IN
9 OUT
0
IN
0
10 OUT
0
IN
11 OUT
IN
12 OUT
IN
OUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,424,441
766,973
969,920
1,142,879
1,265,820
1,900,015
2,422,282
13 IN
14 OUT
IN
15 OUT
IN
OUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,567,890
5,144,028
4,331,738
3,899,442
4,166,585
3,232,164
16 IN
17 OUT
IN
18 OUT
IN
19 OUT
IN
OUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,275,705
3,379,860
3,238,917
3,338,540
5,020,512
8,178,599
7,880,383
7,147,180
20 IN
21 OUT
IN
22 OUT
IN
0
0
0
0
7,005,697
6,222,383
7,393,147
4,119,341
23 OUT
0
IN
0
24 OUT
0
IN
0
OUT
0
0
Accumulated Gross Paid Result 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Row 1
CASH-FLOW Project name:
North Helwan 4 Stations
Country:
Egypt
Currency:
EGP
Responsible:
Mohamed Moneim
Date:
6/3/2000
Period
->
1
2
3
Milestones ->
A . "CASH FLOW" Cash In Openning Balance
0
Payments received (incl. calc. interest on advances)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other Cash In
Total Cash IN Cash Out - Material - Enineering (Manpower) - Erection - Commissioning - Training - Special Selling Cost - Finance Cost - Paid Sales & Admin Cost - Others = Direct Cost Paid - Project costs incurred, but not paid = Exposure A B. OTHER EXPOSURE DURING DELIVERY PERIOD - Committed project costs + Covered by cancellation = Cancellation costs + Residual Value + Insurance Coverage (incl. Export Guarantee Institute) - Rest exposure on On-demand guarantees = Exposure B C. RESIDUAL RISK ON FINANCING - Net Present Value of Residual Risk on Financing = Exposure C
0
0
0
= Total Project Exposure (PE) (A+B+C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total Cash Out
0
0
0
Cash Balance
0
0
0
CALCULATION OF POLITICAL RISK PROVISION FOR FINANCING Net Present Value of Residual Risk on Financing Net Present Value of Retention Money Total NPV Political Risk Provision for Financing/Retention Money
Summary Of Cashflow Opening Balance 0 0 0 Cash In 0 0 0 Cash Out 0 0 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------Balance 0 0 0 Max Project Exposure (A+B+C)
0
In Period MAPE for this country
#VALUE!
4
0
0 0
0 0
0
0
0 0 0 0
0 0
0 0 0 ---------------------0
5
6
7
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------0 0 0 0
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------- ---------------------0 0
0
### -284000 -565000 -104000 -208000 -1280 -347000
Total Project Exposure 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu Colu mn mn mn mn mn mn I mn J mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn D E F G H K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA
Risk Analysis Checklist (Optional. All boxes are extendible. Add rows if necessary.)
Project: Date: App. 2
1/23/2009 RISK FACTOR
2.0
SCOPE OF WORK 1 2 3 4
3.0
CUSTOMER AND CUSTOMER COUNTRY 1 2 3 4
4.0
CONSORTIUM/JOINT VENTURE 1 2 3 4
5.0
BASIS FOR EXECUTION 1 2 3 4
6.0
CONTRACTUAL ISSUES 1 2 3 4
7.0 1 2 3 4 8.0
PRICE
CASH FLOW/PAYMENT 1 2 3 4
9.0 1 2 3 4
OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES
REMARKS
Risk Provision
Contingency
RISK MITIGATION Contract
Insurance
Co-suppliers
EXAMPLE
Risk Analysis Checklist (Optional. All boxes are extendible. Add rows if necessary.)
Project: Date: 1/23/2009 App. 2 RISK FACTOR 2.0 1 2 3
SCOPE OF WORK Scope of Work definition Engineering Procurement
4
Construction
3.0
REMARKS
Risk Provision
Contingency
Good condition. Minor risks, typical work. Worldwide procurement. Client purchased equipment. By consortium partner.
X X
Working with consortium partner.
X
RISK MITIGATION Contract
Insurance
Co-suppliers X
X X
X
CUSTOMER AND CUSTOMER COUNTRY 1 2 3 4
4.0 1 2 3 4 5.0
CONSORTIUM/JOINT VENTURE JV organisation risks
1 2
BASIS FOR EXECUTION Site conditions Project logistics
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CONTRACTUAL ISSUES Defects in warranty period Reperformance of engineering Reperformance of construction Consequential losses Damage to client property liabilities Damage to contract works liabilities Third party liabilities Technology ownership and use Liability for pollution Overall limit of liability
6.0
7.0 1 2 3 4 8.0
PRICE Completeness of data for equipment, engineering and commissioning Labour costs Freight costs Currency exposure CASH FLOW/PAYMENT
1 2 3 4 9.0 1 2 3 4
OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES
X X X X X
X
Waived. Proposed reciprocal indemnities.
X X X X
Qualified. Proposed.
X
Well known. By consortium partner. To be hedged.
X X X X
X
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