Powepoint Presentation Of "energy And Climate Change Policy: A Survey Among American Voters."

HART

RESEARCH AS SOC I AT ES

Energy And Climate Change Policy A Survey among American Voters Conducted September 2009 for

Methodology

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Telephone survey among 1,002 registered voters

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Survey dates August 24 – 31, 2009

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Margin of error = ±3.0 percentage points overall

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Voters See Need For Significant Changes To U.S. Energy Policy Assessment of America’s Energy Policy Not No need sure for change 4% 4% Need minor reform 26%

Need complete overhaul 19% 66% SIGNIFICANT REFORM

47% Need major reform 3

Majorities Across Party and Region Agree

Democrats Independent Republicans Northeast South Midwest West

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Complete overhaul/ major reform 76% 62% 55% 74% 66% 54% 71%

Voters’ Priorities for Energy Reform What should be Congress’ priorities for an energy proposal to reduce carbon emissions and increase use of alternative & renewable sources? Highest priority

Development/use of renewables/alternatives Minimize new government bureaucracy Minimize negative impact on jobs/job creation Minimize any new taxes Promote new green energy jobs Reduce carbon emissions linked with climate change Minimize costs to consumers/electric rates 4

Second highest priority

41%

24%

32%

20%

30%

14% 12%

28% 26%

12% 10% 7%

13% Dem 55% GOP

21% 19%

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

50% Dem 30% GOP

Strong Support For Reducing Carbon Emissions/Expanding Renewables Would you favor or oppose an energy proposal to significantly reduce carbon emissions that contribute to climate change and increase the use of alternative and renewable energy sources? Strongly oppose 12%

Not sure 6%

Somewhat oppose 8%

Democrats Independent Republicans

74% FAVOR

25% Somewhat favor 5

Strongly favor 49%

Majorities Across Party and Region Agree

Northeast South Midwest West

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Strongly/ somewhat favor 91% 67% 59% 82% 71% 72% 74%

Voters’ Current (Unaided) View of “Cap and Trade” Knowledge of “Cap and Trade”

Attitude toward “Cap and Trade”

61%

58%

29% 24% 14%

Have not heard of 35%

A lot 9%

A lot/fair amount 6

13% Very 2%

Just Very little/ some not heard of

Positive

Very negative 19%

DK name/ not sure 27%

Negative Neutral/ not sure

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Voters Informed Reaction To “Cap And Trade” “The plan sets an overall limit or "cap" on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that U.S. companies could produce with higher limits phased in over time. For example, one specific cap and trade proposal would reduce carbon emissions 17% by the year 2020 and 80% by the year 2050. The federal government would auction or issue permits that allow companies to emit carbon dioxide up to the amount set by the cap. Companies that produce or emit less than their allowance could sell or trade their unused emissions permits to companies that go over their allowance. The idea would be to create a marketbased system that allows companies to decide how best to deal with the cap set on their carbon emissions.” 7

Not sure 8% Strongly oppose 30%

Strongly favor 14% 46% FAVOR

46% OPPOSE

16% Somewhat oppose

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

32% Somewhat favor

Voters’ Current (Unaided) View Of Fee On Carbon Usage Or “Carbon Tax” Knowledge of “Carbon Tax”

Attitude toward “Carbon Tax”

57% 46% 36% 26% 16%

Have not heard of 31%

A lot 8%

A lot/fair amount 8

18% Very negative 21%

DK name/ not sure 23%

Very 4%

Just Very little/ some not heard of

Positive

Negative Neutral/ not sure

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Voters Informed Reaction To “Carbon Tax” “This plan would put a tax on carbon emissions so that the cost of carbon pollution is reflected in the price of energy. While there would not be a specific cap or limit on carbon emissions, the tax would be set at a level so that it acts as an incentive for companies to reduce their carbon emissions, improve the efficiency of fossil fuel use, and also develop new technologies and alternative energies. A carbon tax approach also would create incentives for consumers to use energy more efficiently. Individuals and households would receive tax refunds to offset the impact of the carbon tax.”

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Strongly oppose 23%

Not sure 6%

37% OPPOSE

14% Somewhat oppose

Strongly favor 26% 57% FAVOR

31% Somewhat favor

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Voters’ Support Carbon Tax Over Cap & Trade By Strong Margin Preferred Approach for Reducing Carbon Emissions Neither/ not sure (2%) 15% Cap & trade favor strongly 7% 27% CAP & TRADE

20% Cap & trade not strongly

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Carbon tax favor strongly 22%

58% CARBON TAX

36% Carbon tax not strongly

Carbon Tax supporters are also more committed in their view: 38% of carbon tax supporters describe their support as strong; 26% of cap & trade supporters say the same.

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Preference For Carbon Tax Approach Overwhelming Among All Key Groups Differential: Favor Carbon Tax minus Favor Cap & Trade

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All voters

+31

Democrats Independents Republicans

+36 +35 +20

Under $40K income $40K to $60K income Over $60K income

+38 +29 +28

Obama voters McCain voters

+37 +21

Northeast South Midwest West

+25 +41 +20 +28

Strong environmentalists Moderate environmentalists Non-environmentalists

+45 +34 +15

Most aware Moderately aware Least aware

+33 +32 +28

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Perceived Benefits Of Cap & Trade Over Carbon Tax % saying each is very/fairly convincing argument for cap & trade approach 55% Recession/high unemployment make this the wrong time to pass new, across-the-board tax on businesses and consumers (40% very convincing) 44% Carbon tax requires all U.S. companies pay same tax, no flexibility for impact on local/regional companies; cap & trade has permit flexibility (21%) 42% Cap & trade model used successfully in U.S. in 1990s to limit sulfur dioxide emissions and dramatically reduce acid rain levels (22%) 40% Cap & trade sets clear limit on carbon emissions, specific benchmarks & timetables; carbon tax doesn’t guarantee companies will reduce emissions rather than pay tax, so environmental impact much less certain (18%) 36% Carbon tax triggers immediate cost increase to businesses/households; have to be paid before any rebates or refunds provided (21%) 36% Bipartisan support for cap & trade, so more likely to pass; President, Senator McCain, key Dem & GOP Congressional leaders support (18%) 12

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Perceived Benefits Of Carbon Tax Over Cap & Trade % saying each is very/fairly convincing argument for carbon tax approach 56% Simple market-based incentive for business; cap & trade has no direct incentive to change behavior, big polluters can buy out (35% very convincing) 53% Simple, transparent, implement quickly, little bureaucracy/admin costs; cap & trade is complex, vast bureaucracy, vulnerable to special interests (34%) 52% Cap & trade sets new standards over long time for business/individuals to react, not effective with urgency of problem; EU cap & trade since 2005, so far not lower carbon emissions (31%) 49% Cap & trade creates commodities market for emissions, Wall Street banks control trading/pricing, mismanagement/price instability; carbon tax steady, preset, transparent tax, promotes stable/predictable prices (30%) 46% Carbon tax has steady revenue stream, built-in funding for important rebates/tax credits to business/households, alternatives/renewables (24%) 43% Carbon tax has no impact on US GDP over 20 years, minimal impact on jobs/inflation; cap & trade cuts GDP $350B over 20 yrs, 2.5M jobs (25%) 42% Both raise energy costs, but carbon tax is rebated to consumer without minimizing enviro benefits/promotion of renewables; cap & trade sacrifices enviro benefits to reduce economic impact (22%) 13

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Best Approach For U.S. Economy With which argument do you agree more? Carbon Tax supporters: Unlike cap & trade that will create rapid changes and uncertainty in energy prices, a carbon tax establishes a steady, preset, transparent tax on carbon emissions, which promotes stable and predictable prices that are better for American businesses and consumers. Cap & Trade supporters: It is flexible, allows companies to decide for themselves how to deal with limits on their carbon emissions, and can be adapted to take into account the impact of the emissions cap on certain industries and regions. Especially in the middle of a prolonged recession, a carbon tax approach of imposing a new, preset tax on business is a bad idea. 14

Neither/ not sure (3%) 16% Cap & trade strongly agree 10%

31% CAP & TRADE

21% Cap & trade somewhat agree

Carbon tax strongly agree 22% 53% CARBON TAX

31% Carbon tax somewhat agree

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Best Approach For Reducing Carbon Emissions/Protecting Environment With which argument do you agree more? Carbon Tax supporters: This is simple, straightforward, and easy to administer without the loopholes that will make a cap and trade approach ineffective. Cap & Trade supporters: This sets a specific limit on overall carbon emissions while establishing specific benchmarks and timetables that can be adapted to scientific evidence, while a carbon tax does not actually force or guarantee that companies will reduce their carbon emissions.

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Neither/ not sure (3%) 14% Cap & trade strongly agree 13% 34% CAP & TRADE

21% Cap & trade somewhat agree

Carbon tax strongly agree 23% 52% CARBON TAX

29% Carbon tax somewhat agree

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for

Credible Messengers How much consideration would you give to the views of this person/ group in deciding between carbon tax and cap & trade approach? Great deal of consideration

Scientists

46%

26%

39%

22%

Coal industry

16

47%

15%

Al Gore

Major corporations

50%

26%

Barack Obama

Members of Congress

51%

28%

Environmental leaders

Oil industry

71%

43%

Wind power industry Leading economists

Fair amount of consideration

15% 11% 6% 9%

34% 24% 24% 22%

Voters on Energy & Climate Change Policy – September 2009 – Hart Research for