Political Science Paper

Global Consequences of Natural Disasters and Epidemics POLSCI 375 By Justin Wood

2 The world that we live in is completely balanced with one another, each country has its own space but yet lives along side other countries in relative peace, at least for the majority. But what happens when Mother Nature throws the inhabitants of this planet a curve ball? Something that the world hasn’t had to deal with, something where there are no longer borders between countries only individuals trying to survive. Are there plans to help prevent this? Are the world leaders worried about an event that seems so far fetched that it couldn’t possibly happen? Since scientist know that catastrophic events have happened before, it is not a question of if, but when. How can you predict something that hasn’t happen in recorded history or an event like the black plague where millions of people perished? This paper will discuss scenarios, protocols and plans to see what the experts are saying about these difficult situations. The United Nations has seen what can happen when natural disasters strike. This is why they have created a department within the U.N. to combat, understand and prepare for these types of situations. The IDNDR or the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction which was established in the 1990’s, this group specified what actually were natural disasters, earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, grasshoppers and locust infestations and drought and desertification (pg. 2 Mitigation Emerges as Major Strategy for Reducing Losses Caused by Natural Disasters).

Though some natural disasters are of course a greater risk to others than different types of natural disasters, we still feel the effects of them. When there is an earthquake in one part of the world that will therefore trigger a tsunami that will devastate a country

3 across the other side of the world. A volcano erupts, spewing tons of ash into the air, which will then fall onto another countries causing wildlife and wide spread crop failure. These scenarios happen to countries all over the world, some countries are able to handle the disasters better than others. Take the example of Japan. This country is constantly under threats of earthquakes and tsunamis. These disasters have struck this country multiple times in the past and will strike the country again. Japan though is able to combat these natural disasters by educating their people and by building their infrastructure strong enough and in the right way to be able to hold up under extreme conditions. They have a tsunami education program that is one of the best in the world; their citizens know how to interpret the signs that will lead up to a tsunami, therefore saving their lives. Unlike the people of Sumatra where thousands of unsuspecting people perished because they didn’t know the signs that a massive tsunami was barreling towards them at hundreds of miles an hour. When people of areas that are prone to natural disasters are given the right information to help save their lives during times of disaster it will greatly increase there chance of survival. Look at New York City, this city is one of the biggest in the world with thousands of buildings that are just simple brick and mortar. This city even though some may not believe or realize is at risk to earthquakes. An earthquake of relatively small size could easily destroy thousands of buildings within the city because they were not meant to withstand them. On the other side of the country you have a city like San Francisco, this city has been through multiple disasters and has learned how to deal with them and built the city’s infrastructure accordingly. This city will be able to handle a much larger

4 earthquake with less damage than an unprepared city like New York. There is no way to feasibly change a city like New York, but you can prepare and educate the citizens as the citizens of San Francisco have been educated. When looking at natural disasters from a third world perspective the outcome is almost always bleak. These third world countries do not have the luxuries like insurance or aid from local and federal governments. When disaster strikes they are usually left with nothing and destitute, unable to regain their footing. It’s disheartening when these individuals have worked so hard for so little and something can take all of their hard work and lively hood away, leaving them with nothing. Who is responsible? Should the American government supply humanitarian aid and protection for the whole stricken region? There is an actual office of the American government that is charged by law to help foreign nations when they are stricken with disasters; this office is Foreign Disaster Assistance or OFDA. Luckily the U.S. is not alone. The United Nations has its own form of humanitarian aid. “ United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs agency of the United Nations (UN) Secretariat originally established in 1972 to coordinate international relief activities to countries struck by natural or other disasters. It is headed by a disaster relief coordinator who reports directly to the UN secretary-general and works closely with the United Nations Development Program. (Encyclopedia Britannica, UN)” This agency helps the needs of millions across the world. But it took disaster after disaster in the 60’s to force an international response. Before then no government

5 agency had the power or authority to help nations that were under the affect of a natural disaster. What kind of aid is needed when dealing with countries that are being affected? The most important kind of aid that will help save lives in those situations would be humanitarian aid. This aid would include basic living standards that would help individuals stay clean and keep nourished during harder times. The UN would have the authority to distribute to the countries that are on as needs basis. But be sure to know that all that could be helped will be helped during these times. But like all organizations operating in foreign lands there will always be problems within the system and things will never run as smoothly as they would want. The UN doesn’t just supply aid to nations that are in need but like with all problems the best technique in getting over it is knowledge. The UN has multiple programs in which they will go into third world countries and provide valuable lessons in ways to prepare and recover from natural disasters. “It is essential that capabilities for disaster management be strengthened in developing countries, not only so the necessary expertise is available to implement programs, but also so knowledgeable people participate in policy discussions that lead to formulation of those programs. Unless someone is able to articulate in high-level discussions the opportunities for reducing disaster losses that modern disaster management methods offer, there is little chance that the issues will be appropriately framed. It must also be recognized that the inhabitants of hazardous areas in many developing countries are poor, and that their settlements often are illegal

6 or self built with materials at hand. Building codes and warning systems are largely irrelevant, and thus special efforts must be made to reduce their vulnerability.” (Mitigation Emerges as Major Strategy for Reducing losses caused by Natural Disasters) As this last quote said, programs need to be put into place for the struggling nation’s citizens to help them understand how to help them with things like their infrastructure. When they are able to have buildings and houses that will be able to survive disasters, the rate of survival will much higher. If their basic form of shelter is able to be there when hard times comes this will greatly affect their moral and in turn help them get passed these situations. Not to mention the ability to be out of the weather will greatly enhance their chances of not getting diseases and other debilitating illnesses.

This next scenario might be a little more far fetched but none the less still a very deadly example, and one that needs to be addressed on a global scale. This scenario is NEA’s or near Earth asteroids. According to a study done by NASA they have already found 700 to 1200 NEA’s that are 1 kilometer or larger. That' big of an asteroid would cause catastrophic damage on a global scale. Every country would feel the effects of an impact of that size. A program that was started back in 1998 was charged by congress along with NASA to gaze into the stars with the sole purpose of finding these NEA’s. This program though is still in the early stages of its development is lacking in the area of funding and technology to be able to reach it goal of discovering 90 percent of NEA’s. Many researchers, however, think more needs to be done. Monster 1-kilometer asteroids jolt Earth on average only every few I hundred

7 thousand years, but a still- formidable 300-meter body strikes every 60,000 years or so, they point out. As telescopic imaging technology has improved, 2 surveying such 200- or 300-meter "sub- 7 kilometer" objects might soon be practicable. If such an impactor hit within hundreds of kilometers of the U.S. Atlantic coast, it could send a 100-meter tsunami into Boston, New I York City, and Charleston, planetary scientist Erik Asphaug of the University of California, f Santa Cruz, reminded the meeting attendees. (A Little Respect for the Asteroid Threat p. 1786) The damage caused by even one of the smaller sized asteroids is still a very serious problem and would destroy a major city if it struck close enough. But by the research done on this subject of NEA’s, there isn’t a set plan that has been approved by nations of the world to help plan for this type of situation. The problem though with setting a plan in stone is the grand scale of a situation like this. Plus, the technology to prevent this crisis from happening is only in the idea stages and of course has never been put to the test. When dealing with a situation of this magnitude it is hard to imagine what would really happen. It is almost understandable that ideas dealing with this aren’t fully known and understood. The shear cost and scale of a program that would be able to capture all objects and calculate their course to be able to find out if they are indeed a hazard to the planet is next to impossible. It might be easier but the technology for it is simply not here yet. This scenario is so devastating that if by chance an asteroid slips through our early warning screens and impacts with the earth be it on land or on in the ocean, millions of people will die. Borders would not exist any longer; governments would be unable to control the chaos and destruction that would inevitably occur. This

8 really would be a doomsday scenario. The UN would struggle to even comprehend the scale and would simply not have the resources to help all that were affected by this. This is something that we all wish would never come to pass or we would never need to worry about. But the simple truth like all natural disasters would be education and timing. When the governments of the world could have noticed an inevitable situation like this, proper programs and implementations could go into affect to be able to save at least a selected few. This does seem like a far fetched possibility but the truth of the matter is that huge objects have struck the earth before and have caused major extinctions, so like all natural disasters it is not a question of if, but when.

This last scenario that will be discussed in this paper is something that has happened to people throughout history. Epidemics have been a cause of death and suffering for thousands of years. The Egyptians first encountered the smallpox back in 10,000 BC in northern Africa and then was spread to India through merchants. This disease alone killed millions of people until finally in as late as 1977 the last case of smallpox was documented in Somalia. It took over 465 million vaccines in 27 countries to be able to complete this monumental task (Geographical Spread of Influenza p. 4). Another example is of the Black Death that ravaged Europe over and over again for many years in the early fourteen hundreds until the late sixteen hundreds. The plague was spread through rats and especially fleas. The unfortunate individuals who contracted the plague had only about eight days to live with a mortality rate of about 75 percent. This scenario though was hundreds of years ago, because of science and technology the world has become much safer place, right? Yes and no. The fact is that the advances in

9 technology have given scientists the ability to save millions of lives through the use of vaccines like with the case of small pox. The other fact is that it has also given us a pathway for terrorists or rogue countries to have access to such deadly forms of death. Like the Black Death it wasn’t man made, a terrorist didn’t think of a strategy and set off a dirty bomb in a major city. Unfortunately these things still happen to this day but happen in very poverty stricken areas that don’t have the ability to help themselves. Luckily there is an organization already in place that has the ability to go into stricken countries and provide medical attention to those in need. That organization is WHO or the World Health Organization. WHO has six core functions: •

Support Member States for the implementation of national capacities for epidemic preparedness and response in the context of the IHR(2005), including laboratory capacities and early warning alert and response systems;

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Support national and international training programs for epidemic preparedness and response;

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Coordinate and support Member States for pandemic and seasonal influenza preparedness and response;

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Develop standardized approaches for readiness and response to major epidemic-prone diseases (e.g. meningitis, yellow fever, plague);

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Strengthen bio safety, bio security and readiness for outbreaks of dangerous and emerging pathogens outbreaks (e.g. SARS, viral hemorrhagic fevers);

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Maintain and further develop a global operational platform to support outbreak response and support regional offices in implementation at regional level. (Courtesy of http://www.who.int/csr/en/)

10 This is an example of how an organization that is not attached to any single government can be of great service to those who are in need. WHO feels like they greatest determent to large scale epidemics are teaching individuals correct hygiene and making sure they have a clean water supply. Most of these incidents come from bad water supplies where tiny microbes are attracted to. Third world countries seem to have most of the problems with this since they of course don’t have the necessary means to prevent this. Through the advancement of modern science, we have been granted great gifts and benefits of our time that save lives all over the world. We have the ability to travel to far distant places and see things that we would never be able to see if it wasn’t for the invention of the jet plane. Things seem to have fallen into place perfectly to allow us to live our lives they way that we want it. But recently there have been major debates that these luxuries that we have could be our down fall. An epidemic in a one small village in Africa will not have any risk of infecting countries from around the world. That was true a hundred years ago, now since the ability to travel any where in the world in a matter of hours, not months this scenario has become a lot more serious. That one single outbreak in Africa can have huge consequences around the world. All it takes is one simple carrier to come in contact and then not knowingly sneeze on someone or become to close and the epidemic begins. There was research that was done for this exact instance by Rebecca F. Grais, J. Hugh Ellis and Gregory E. Ellis. These researchers followed the example of previous research done on a 1968-69 influenza outbreak and made up a model that would predict

11 which cities would report the first cases of influenza if it happened again. This is all because of the huge airline traffic matrix. Because it is relatively easy for an international traveler to get around the spread of influenza would infect everyone on board and then in turn they would infect everyone else that they come in contact with. This as you can imagine can become wide spread very rapidly. This is why such organizations like the World Health Organization have taken this topic so seriously. WHO directly reports to the UN Security Council and therefore is able to keep them up to date directly on situation that can become critical. The problem with these types of diseases is that they continually evolve and find new and deadly ways to hide. That is why Dr. Jong-Wook Lee the former director of WHO had requested even more funding from the Security Council to help fund programs to train new epidemiologists, create remote labs in poor countries and look into new diseases like SARS. He had requested an estimated $200 million dollars from the 190 countries that make up WHO. The director felt like there were many holes in the previous program and with this money he dedicated himself and WHO to do all that they can to prevent epidemics to become global. A scenario like this will take the cooperation of all nations of the world to help to prevent. It only takes one to become the catalyst for a massive disaster like this to become a real killer. Because of organizations like WHO, that are continually looking and studying new techniques to combat diseases, individuals and countries stand a greater chance of surviving an epidemic.

12 In conclusion to this paper I have gained a greater knowledge of all the elements that it would take to help prevent natural disasters in one area of the world from spilling over into the global community. Steps and balances must be put into place no matter what the situation might be. It doesn’t matter if the event can seem small and insignificant and not a big deal to the whole population, but like history has shown us, these events can escalate quickly to become a global problem. Also, organizations after organization and committee after committee have all agreed on the one thing that can save more lives than anything else. That one simple thing is educating the citizens of the countries that have even the slightest risk of being affected. Education and the knowledge that comes with it will be able to do more than anything else. If those poor people in Somalia just knew the simple signs of what a tsunami looks like before it strikes, thousands of people could have been saved. It is because of examples like this that really get to me. It is one of the cheapest things you can do, it doesn’t take expensive technology just people on the ground explaining what to look for, how to react and what they need to do to survive. That information will be priceless, and should never be held back because of money. The global community needs to unite in this cause of educating its members so that when a disaster does strike, they will know what to do.

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