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PHILADELPHIA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RANK Best=1
Mature Best=1
Worst=387
VITALITY
Worst=387
167
2004-06
3rd quintile
320
COST OF DOING BUSINESS
5th quintile
U.S.= 100%
2004-09
110% COST OF LIVING
303
1999
2000
2001
135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
96%
U.S.= 100%
4th quintile
1998
Relative Employment Performance (1991=100)
LIFE CYCLE PHASE
91
2002
2003
STRENGTHS Concentration of well-regarded institutions of higher education. Center for health services and medical research. Relatively affordable housing and living costs. Well developed port. WEAKNESSES
Weak population growth. Lower per capita income than other large Northeast metro areas.
CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS December 2005 Employment Growth % change year ago, 3 mo. MA 0.3
-3
0.5
1.2 1.6 0.8 1.2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
FORECAST RISKS LONG TERM
1.0
-0.5
-4
SHORT TERM
1.4
-0.1 -1.5
RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN, ‘04-09
-0.32%
UPSIDE
• New office space, tax incentives attract more employers into PHI.
• Increased port activity sparks payroll gains in supporting industries. DOWNSIDE
• Further consolidation in the drug industry hits PHI’s top employers.
94
95
96
97
98
2004
99
00
01
U.S.
02
04
05
06
07
08
09
PHI
Indicators
2005
Gross Metro Product, C$B % Change Total Employment (000) % Change Unemployment Rate Personal Income Growth Population (000) Single-Family Permits Multifamily Permits Existing Home Price ($Ths) Mortgage Originations ($Mil) Net Migration (000) Personal Bankruptcies
03
2006
2007
2008
2009
157.5 160.1 163.0 166.6 170.2 3.2 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 1,877.7 1,888.5 1,899.9 1,911.5 1,929.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.5 4.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 3,895.1 3,905.8 3,916.2 3,921.4 3,926.1 8,919 8,458 6,974 6,381 6,248 3,563 2,554 1,998 2,161 2,164 206.9 225.7 231.4 233.0 234.3 32,257 33,563 29,893 27,614 27,242 -1.1 -2.8 -3.1 -8.5 -9.1 16,928 14,190 16,063 17,925 18,760
ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
-3.1
93
DataBuffet® MSA code: DMPHI
133.3 136.6 138.5 141.5 144.4 148.2 152.5 4.3 2.5 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 1,826.0 1,861.8 1,894.2 1,900.3 1,885.4 1,869.9 1,868.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 7.4 3.8 7.7 2.2 3.1 3.1 4.8 3,824.4 3,837.6 3,852.2 3,856.9 3,864.0 3,873.3 3,882.6 9,883 9,696 9,041 8,179 8,685 7,994 8,348 1,883 1,666 2,311 2,105 1,595 3,698 4,335 123.1 117.4 116.1 128.1 142.0 164.1 177.4 15,404 14,040 11,651 21,294 75,195 49,189 28,555 2.2 0.5 2.7 -6.8 -4.7 -3.8 -4.8 16,535 16,197 15,888 17,848 18,287 18,691 17,104
T otal Construction Manufacturing T rade T rans/Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof & Business Svcs Edu & Health Svcs Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government
92
• Rising energy prices deplete manufacturing. • Red tape delays issuance of slot licenses.
Recent Performance. The pace of economic expansion in the Philadelphia metro division remains modest, at best. Payroll employment in PHI trended flat in the second half of this year after recording steady gains through 2004. However, the pace of hiring in PHI continues to lag the nation and payrolls remain well below their pre-recession peak. As expected, manufacturing has weighed heavily on job growth in PHI as the industry has cut payrolls at three times the national rate. After peaking in 2003, the jobless rate has continued to improve over the subsequent two years. Labor market. A collective sigh of relief could be heard through PHI as it was announced that Merck & Company will not be closing its vaccine manufacturing plant in West Point, Montgomery County. As part of a cost-cutting move, the company plans to cut 7,000 positions worldwide by 2008. Merck & Company is one of PHI’s top employers, with approximately 10,000 employees. The PHI economy was dealt a minor blow when Pilgrim’s Pride, a Texas-based poultry producer, announced that it was lowering its earnings outlook for 2006. As a result, the company is restructuring its operations in Pennsylvania. The company will cut 300 jobs at its Franconia plant, located in Montgomery County. Customs district. Activity through the Philadelphia Customs District, which includes the Port of Philadelphia, continues to accelerate. The Port of Philadelphia’s cargo statistics showed that 2004’s total tonnage surpassed 2003 figures by over 16%. This year is shaping up to be another healthy one for the port. With the value of imports steadily increasing since June, authorities raised concern about the port’s capacity. Increased port activity was the motivation for a new warehouse project that was begun in November. The new warehouse will be mainly utilized for imported forest products. This highly labor-intensive imported good, coupled with construction activity along the Delaware
River, will provide a much-needed shot in the arm to payroll employment in PHI. Port activity will only intensify as there are plans to deepen the Delaware River in the pipeline. Gambling. Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc., the sixth largest gambling company in the country, recently leased a property in the City of Philadelphia with hopes of building a slot parlor. To limit entry, the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board will only issue two gaming licenses in the city. This has gaming companies jostling for position in the bidding for a license in the much-touted PHI market. Slot casinos located in the city have the potential to attract prospective gamblers from neighboring states. According to local reports, the two casino properties will create roughly 4,000 positions while generating $765 million in gross revenue. Furthermore, slot-backed casinos will diversify the composition of the PHI tourism industry. This bodes well for PHI as a boost in tourist activity will have a strong multiplier effect on the local economy. However, the casinos will face considerable competition from New Jersey and Delaware. Moreover, the long-term success of the casinos will hinge on their ability to bring in outside dollars to boost local economic activity. If a large share of casino revenue comes from PHI residents then there will be little boost to economic growth. Job creation in Philadelphia will continue to expand at a below average pace. Serviceproducing industries will feed payroll growth while the manufacturing sector will continue to shrink preventing PHI from reaching a new employment peak until 2008. PHI’s above average living and business costs combined with weak immigration trends will impede economic growth. That said, PHI is expected to be an underperformer over the extended forecast horizon. Ryan Sweet January 2006
Précis METRO © 2006 Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. • 121 N. Walnut Street, Suite 500 • West Chester, PA 19380 • 610.235.5000 • [email protected] • www.economy.com For the confidential use of subscribers. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This report is available through the Internet at Economy.com/Research.
71
MIGRATION FLOWS
EMPLOYMENT & INDUSTRY TOP EMPLOYERS
Into Philadelphia
INDUSTRIAL DIVERSITY
University of Pennsylvania Jefferson Health System Merck & Company The Vanguard Group of Investment Cos., Inc. SEPTA Crozer-Keystone Health System Tenet Healthcare Corporation Prudential Financial Lockheed Martin Corporation Acme Markets Genesis Health Ventures, Inc. Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Exelon Corporation US Airways, Inc. Wachovia Corporation Independence Blue Cross Allied Security Rosenbluth International Abington Memorial Hospital Thomas Jefferson University
22,605 14,317 10,000 8,000 7,370 7,026 7,002 6,568 6,500 6,440 6,393 6,200 5,695 5,500 5,443 5,040 5,000 5,000 4,586 4,483
1.00 0.80
0.74
0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
Least Diverse
EMPLOYMENT VOLATILITY DUE TO U.S. RELATIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS U.S. 100% 80%
Source: Philadelphia Business Journal Book of Lists, 2005
60%
82%
40%
Public Federal ................................................... 45,219 State ....................................................... 22,662 Local .................................................... 151,759 2004
Number of Migrants
Median Income
New York NY Camden NJ Wilmington DE Edison NJ Reading PA Allentown PA Trenton NJ Newark NJ Washington VA Lancaster PA Total Inmigration
6,840 5,315 4,084 2,518 2,210 2,167 1,988 1,682 1,613 1,555 74,604
27,125 31,138 44,744 43,964 27,998 28,170 34,370 38,880 37,263 25,472 29,953
From Philadelphia Camden NJ Wilmington DE Reading PA New York NY Allentown PA Lancaster PA Washington VA Edison NJ Baltimore MD Trenton NJ Total Outmigration
9,020 5,264 4,751 3,615 3,047 2,512 2,022 1,508 1,456 1,202 84,040
40,527 34,595 34,696 27,714 34,044 27,649 33,652 37,040 32,721 32,728 31,716
Net Migration
-9,436
-1,763
Most Diverse (U.S.)
86
100
20% 0% Not due to U.S.
Due to U.S.
PHI
U.S.
COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME % of Total Employment PHI PA US
Sector
3.8% 8.8% 49.9% 50.1% 3.2% 4.5% 10.7% 2.2% 7.8% 14.7% 20.0% 7.6% 4.5% 11.8%
Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Transportation/Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Financial Activities Prof. and Bus. Services Educ. and Health Services Leisure and Hosp. Services Other Services Government
4.4% 12.3% 59.6% 40.4% 4.0% 4.1% 11.8% 2.0% 6.0% 11.2% 17.7% 8.4% 4.7% 13.2%
5.3% 10.9% 62.3% 37.7% 3.7% 4.3% 11.4% 2.4% 6.1% 12.5% 12.9% 9.5% 4.1% 16.4%
Average Annual Earnings PHI PA US $59,552 $80,005 nd nd $54,845 $71,104 $29,733 $89,009 $65,507 $59,910 $43,207 $20,985 $26,018 $55,818
$44,574 $61,729 $60,248 $63,882 $54,587 $58,957 $24,627 $64,270 $49,233 $48,501 $39,241 $16,640 $23,292 $48,394
$43,405 $63,608 $66,482 $58,981 $52,867 $59,820 $25,982 $74,870 $50,152 $46,927 $37,997 $18,752 $22,636 $50,297
Source: Percent of total employment - Moody’s Economy.com & BLS, 2004; Average annual earnings - BEA, 2003
HOUSE PRICES
LEADING INDUSTRIES
280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80
NAICS Industry
87
90
94
98
02
PHI
U.S.
05
GVSL 6221 6113 7221 GVF 4451 7222 5241 6211 5617 5613 5411 5511 6231 5415
State & Local Government 174.4 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 79.4 Colleges, Universities & Professional Schools 66.3 Full-Service Restaurants 48.6 Federal Government 45.2 Grocery Stores 40.2 Limited-Service Eating Places 34.3 Insurance Carriers 30.7 Offices of Physicians 30.0 Services to Buildings and Dwellings 29.1 Employment Services 27.6 Legal Services 27.1 Management of Companies and Enterprises 26.1 Nursing Care Facilities 25.2 Computer Systems Design and Related Srvcs. 24.6
CREDIT QUALITY FITCH
BBB+
0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 -7,000 2001
2002
2001
2003
2002
2004
2003
2004
Domestic -18,229 -15,821 -14,608 -15,618 Foreign
11,439
11,148
10,829
10,824
Total
-6,790
-4,673
-3,779
-4,794
Employees (000)
High-tech employment As % of total employment
Source: OFHEO, 1987Q1=100, NSA
Net Migration, PHI
Source: IRS (top), 2004; Census Bureau & Moody’s Economy.com, 2004
PER CAPITA INCOME
38,160
31,730
31,487
113.0 6.0
PHI
PA
US
MOODY’S CITY
Baa1
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Economy.com, 2004
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003
Précis METRO © 2006 Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. • 121 N. Walnut Street, Suite 500 • West Chester, PA 19380 • 610.235.5000 • [email protected] • www.economy.com
72
For the confidential use of subscribers. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This report is available through the Internet at Economy.com/Research.
Philadelphia Modest Job Growth Entices Workers to Enter Labor Force
Manufacturing Is the Sour Apple in Philadelphia
2.0
Education/health
% change year ago
1.5
Prof. /business
1.0
Other
Employment, November 2005, difference year ago, ths
Leisure/hosp.
0.5
Payroll employment
Construction
0.0
Financial activities -0.5
Retail trade
Labor force
-1.0
Transportation/utilities
-1.5
Information
-2.0
Wholesale trade Government
-2.5
Manufacturing -3.0 04
-6
05
New Bankruptcy Laws Lead to Jump in Personal Filings 19
700
Bankruptcies, 3 mo. ending Personal, ths (L)
600 18
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
PHI payroll additions are varied across industries. Servicebased industries, particularly education/health services, continue to support job gains across the metro area. Goods-producing industries are a drag on job growth and have dropped 16% since the beginning of the decade. Going forward, we anticipate a similar pattern of growth as education/health services and professional/ business services fuel job growth. An expansion of gaming industries into the PHI market will boost employment in leisure/ hospitality and retail trade over the extended forecast horizon.
500
400 17
Although on the Decline, Affordability Remains Above Average 200
Business, # (R)
300
Housing affordability index Source: Moody's Economy.com
190 180
200
16 01
02
03
04
05
Philadelphia
170 160 U.S.
Income Distribution Favors Suburban Counties 150 55
Per capita income, $ ths, 2004 Source: Moody's Economy.com
140
50 130 01
45
02
03
04
05
The PHI housing market has been buoyed by rising demand and strong price growth in New York and Washington, which has made PHI a bargain. Strong demand-side fundamentals, such as steady income growth and above average affordability, are pushing the market back into equilibrium, steadily reducing the months of excess housing supply over the past two years. On the downside, rising house prices are weighing on housing affordability, which has declined since the beginning of the decade. Going forward, rising interest rates will further weigh on affordability.
40
35
30
25 Montgomery
Chester
Bucks
Delaware
Philadelphia
Précis METRO © 2006 Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. • 121 N. Walnut Street, Suite 500 • West Chester, PA 19380 • 610.235.5000 • [email protected] • www.economy.com For the confidential use of subscribers. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This report is available through the Internet at Economy.com/Research.
73
Mature Best=1
Worst=387
VITALITY
Worst=387
167
2004-06
3rd quintile
320
COST OF DOING BUSINESS
5th quintile
U.S.= 100%
2004-09
110% COST OF LIVING
303
1999
2000
2001
135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
96%
U.S.= 100%
4th quintile
1998
Relative Employment Performance (1991=100)
LIFE CYCLE PHASE
91
2002
2003
STRENGTHS Concentration of well-regarded institutions of higher education. Center for health services and medical research. Relatively affordable housing and living costs. Well developed port. WEAKNESSES
Weak population growth. Lower per capita income than other large Northeast metro areas.
CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS December 2005 Employment Growth % change year ago, 3 mo. MA 0.3
-3
0.5
1.2 1.6 0.8 1.2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
FORECAST RISKS LONG TERM
1.0
-0.5
-4
SHORT TERM
1.4
-0.1 -1.5
RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN, ‘04-09
-0.32%
UPSIDE
• New office space, tax incentives attract more employers into PHI.
• Increased port activity sparks payroll gains in supporting industries. DOWNSIDE
• Further consolidation in the drug industry hits PHI’s top employers.
94
95
96
97
98
2004
99
00
01
U.S.
02
04
05
06
07
08
09
PHI
Indicators
2005
Gross Metro Product, C$B % Change Total Employment (000) % Change Unemployment Rate Personal Income Growth Population (000) Single-Family Permits Multifamily Permits Existing Home Price ($Ths) Mortgage Originations ($Mil) Net Migration (000) Personal Bankruptcies
03
2006
2007
2008
2009
157.5 160.1 163.0 166.6 170.2 3.2 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 1,877.7 1,888.5 1,899.9 1,911.5 1,929.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.5 4.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 3,895.1 3,905.8 3,916.2 3,921.4 3,926.1 8,919 8,458 6,974 6,381 6,248 3,563 2,554 1,998 2,161 2,164 206.9 225.7 231.4 233.0 234.3 32,257 33,563 29,893 27,614 27,242 -1.1 -2.8 -3.1 -8.5 -9.1 16,928 14,190 16,063 17,925 18,760
ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
-3.1
93
DataBuffet® MSA code: DMPHI
133.3 136.6 138.5 141.5 144.4 148.2 152.5 4.3 2.5 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 1,826.0 1,861.8 1,894.2 1,900.3 1,885.4 1,869.9 1,868.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 7.4 3.8 7.7 2.2 3.1 3.1 4.8 3,824.4 3,837.6 3,852.2 3,856.9 3,864.0 3,873.3 3,882.6 9,883 9,696 9,041 8,179 8,685 7,994 8,348 1,883 1,666 2,311 2,105 1,595 3,698 4,335 123.1 117.4 116.1 128.1 142.0 164.1 177.4 15,404 14,040 11,651 21,294 75,195 49,189 28,555 2.2 0.5 2.7 -6.8 -4.7 -3.8 -4.8 16,535 16,197 15,888 17,848 18,287 18,691 17,104
T otal Construction Manufacturing T rade T rans/Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof & Business Svcs Edu & Health Svcs Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government
92
• Rising energy prices deplete manufacturing. • Red tape delays issuance of slot licenses.
Recent Performance. The pace of economic expansion in the Philadelphia metro division remains modest, at best. Payroll employment in PHI trended flat in the second half of this year after recording steady gains through 2004. However, the pace of hiring in PHI continues to lag the nation and payrolls remain well below their pre-recession peak. As expected, manufacturing has weighed heavily on job growth in PHI as the industry has cut payrolls at three times the national rate. After peaking in 2003, the jobless rate has continued to improve over the subsequent two years. Labor market. A collective sigh of relief could be heard through PHI as it was announced that Merck & Company will not be closing its vaccine manufacturing plant in West Point, Montgomery County. As part of a cost-cutting move, the company plans to cut 7,000 positions worldwide by 2008. Merck & Company is one of PHI’s top employers, with approximately 10,000 employees. The PHI economy was dealt a minor blow when Pilgrim’s Pride, a Texas-based poultry producer, announced that it was lowering its earnings outlook for 2006. As a result, the company is restructuring its operations in Pennsylvania. The company will cut 300 jobs at its Franconia plant, located in Montgomery County. Customs district. Activity through the Philadelphia Customs District, which includes the Port of Philadelphia, continues to accelerate. The Port of Philadelphia’s cargo statistics showed that 2004’s total tonnage surpassed 2003 figures by over 16%. This year is shaping up to be another healthy one for the port. With the value of imports steadily increasing since June, authorities raised concern about the port’s capacity. Increased port activity was the motivation for a new warehouse project that was begun in November. The new warehouse will be mainly utilized for imported forest products. This highly labor-intensive imported good, coupled with construction activity along the Delaware
River, will provide a much-needed shot in the arm to payroll employment in PHI. Port activity will only intensify as there are plans to deepen the Delaware River in the pipeline. Gambling. Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc., the sixth largest gambling company in the country, recently leased a property in the City of Philadelphia with hopes of building a slot parlor. To limit entry, the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board will only issue two gaming licenses in the city. This has gaming companies jostling for position in the bidding for a license in the much-touted PHI market. Slot casinos located in the city have the potential to attract prospective gamblers from neighboring states. According to local reports, the two casino properties will create roughly 4,000 positions while generating $765 million in gross revenue. Furthermore, slot-backed casinos will diversify the composition of the PHI tourism industry. This bodes well for PHI as a boost in tourist activity will have a strong multiplier effect on the local economy. However, the casinos will face considerable competition from New Jersey and Delaware. Moreover, the long-term success of the casinos will hinge on their ability to bring in outside dollars to boost local economic activity. If a large share of casino revenue comes from PHI residents then there will be little boost to economic growth. Job creation in Philadelphia will continue to expand at a below average pace. Serviceproducing industries will feed payroll growth while the manufacturing sector will continue to shrink preventing PHI from reaching a new employment peak until 2008. PHI’s above average living and business costs combined with weak immigration trends will impede economic growth. That said, PHI is expected to be an underperformer over the extended forecast horizon. Ryan Sweet January 2006
Précis METRO © 2006 Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. • 121 N. Walnut Street, Suite 500 • West Chester, PA 19380 • 610.235.5000 • [email protected] • www.economy.com For the confidential use of subscribers. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This report is available through the Internet at Economy.com/Research.
71
MIGRATION FLOWS
EMPLOYMENT & INDUSTRY TOP EMPLOYERS
Into Philadelphia
INDUSTRIAL DIVERSITY
University of Pennsylvania Jefferson Health System Merck & Company The Vanguard Group of Investment Cos., Inc. SEPTA Crozer-Keystone Health System Tenet Healthcare Corporation Prudential Financial Lockheed Martin Corporation Acme Markets Genesis Health Ventures, Inc. Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Exelon Corporation US Airways, Inc. Wachovia Corporation Independence Blue Cross Allied Security Rosenbluth International Abington Memorial Hospital Thomas Jefferson University
22,605 14,317 10,000 8,000 7,370 7,026 7,002 6,568 6,500 6,440 6,393 6,200 5,695 5,500 5,443 5,040 5,000 5,000 4,586 4,483
1.00 0.80
0.74
0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
Least Diverse
EMPLOYMENT VOLATILITY DUE TO U.S. RELATIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS U.S. 100% 80%
Source: Philadelphia Business Journal Book of Lists, 2005
60%
82%
40%
Public Federal ................................................... 45,219 State ....................................................... 22,662 Local .................................................... 151,759 2004
Number of Migrants
Median Income
New York NY Camden NJ Wilmington DE Edison NJ Reading PA Allentown PA Trenton NJ Newark NJ Washington VA Lancaster PA Total Inmigration
6,840 5,315 4,084 2,518 2,210 2,167 1,988 1,682 1,613 1,555 74,604
27,125 31,138 44,744 43,964 27,998 28,170 34,370 38,880 37,263 25,472 29,953
From Philadelphia Camden NJ Wilmington DE Reading PA New York NY Allentown PA Lancaster PA Washington VA Edison NJ Baltimore MD Trenton NJ Total Outmigration
9,020 5,264 4,751 3,615 3,047 2,512 2,022 1,508 1,456 1,202 84,040
40,527 34,595 34,696 27,714 34,044 27,649 33,652 37,040 32,721 32,728 31,716
Net Migration
-9,436
-1,763
Most Diverse (U.S.)
86
100
20% 0% Not due to U.S.
Due to U.S.
PHI
U.S.
COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME % of Total Employment PHI PA US
Sector
3.8% 8.8% 49.9% 50.1% 3.2% 4.5% 10.7% 2.2% 7.8% 14.7% 20.0% 7.6% 4.5% 11.8%
Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Transportation/Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Financial Activities Prof. and Bus. Services Educ. and Health Services Leisure and Hosp. Services Other Services Government
4.4% 12.3% 59.6% 40.4% 4.0% 4.1% 11.8% 2.0% 6.0% 11.2% 17.7% 8.4% 4.7% 13.2%
5.3% 10.9% 62.3% 37.7% 3.7% 4.3% 11.4% 2.4% 6.1% 12.5% 12.9% 9.5% 4.1% 16.4%
Average Annual Earnings PHI PA US $59,552 $80,005 nd nd $54,845 $71,104 $29,733 $89,009 $65,507 $59,910 $43,207 $20,985 $26,018 $55,818
$44,574 $61,729 $60,248 $63,882 $54,587 $58,957 $24,627 $64,270 $49,233 $48,501 $39,241 $16,640 $23,292 $48,394
$43,405 $63,608 $66,482 $58,981 $52,867 $59,820 $25,982 $74,870 $50,152 $46,927 $37,997 $18,752 $22,636 $50,297
Source: Percent of total employment - Moody’s Economy.com & BLS, 2004; Average annual earnings - BEA, 2003
HOUSE PRICES
LEADING INDUSTRIES
280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80
NAICS Industry
87
90
94
98
02
PHI
U.S.
05
GVSL 6221 6113 7221 GVF 4451 7222 5241 6211 5617 5613 5411 5511 6231 5415
State & Local Government 174.4 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 79.4 Colleges, Universities & Professional Schools 66.3 Full-Service Restaurants 48.6 Federal Government 45.2 Grocery Stores 40.2 Limited-Service Eating Places 34.3 Insurance Carriers 30.7 Offices of Physicians 30.0 Services to Buildings and Dwellings 29.1 Employment Services 27.6 Legal Services 27.1 Management of Companies and Enterprises 26.1 Nursing Care Facilities 25.2 Computer Systems Design and Related Srvcs. 24.6
CREDIT QUALITY FITCH
BBB+
0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 -7,000 2001
2002
2001
2003
2002
2004
2003
2004
Domestic -18,229 -15,821 -14,608 -15,618 Foreign
11,439
11,148
10,829
10,824
Total
-6,790
-4,673
-3,779
-4,794
Employees (000)
High-tech employment As % of total employment
Source: OFHEO, 1987Q1=100, NSA
Net Migration, PHI
Source: IRS (top), 2004; Census Bureau & Moody’s Economy.com, 2004
PER CAPITA INCOME
38,160
31,730
31,487
113.0 6.0
PHI
PA
US
MOODY’S CITY
Baa1
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Economy.com, 2004
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003
Précis METRO © 2006 Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. • 121 N. Walnut Street, Suite 500 • West Chester, PA 19380 • 610.235.5000 • [email protected] • www.economy.com
72
For the confidential use of subscribers. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This report is available through the Internet at Economy.com/Research.
Philadelphia Modest Job Growth Entices Workers to Enter Labor Force
Manufacturing Is the Sour Apple in Philadelphia
2.0
Education/health
% change year ago
1.5
Prof. /business
1.0
Other
Employment, November 2005, difference year ago, ths
Leisure/hosp.
0.5
Payroll employment
Construction
0.0
Financial activities -0.5
Retail trade
Labor force
-1.0
Transportation/utilities
-1.5
Information
-2.0
Wholesale trade Government
-2.5
Manufacturing -3.0 04
-6
05
New Bankruptcy Laws Lead to Jump in Personal Filings 19
700
Bankruptcies, 3 mo. ending Personal, ths (L)
600 18
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
PHI payroll additions are varied across industries. Servicebased industries, particularly education/health services, continue to support job gains across the metro area. Goods-producing industries are a drag on job growth and have dropped 16% since the beginning of the decade. Going forward, we anticipate a similar pattern of growth as education/health services and professional/ business services fuel job growth. An expansion of gaming industries into the PHI market will boost employment in leisure/ hospitality and retail trade over the extended forecast horizon.
500
400 17
Although on the Decline, Affordability Remains Above Average 200
Business, # (R)
300
Housing affordability index Source: Moody's Economy.com
190 180
200
16 01
02
03
04
05
Philadelphia
170 160 U.S.
Income Distribution Favors Suburban Counties 150 55
Per capita income, $ ths, 2004 Source: Moody's Economy.com
140
50 130 01
45
02
03
04
05
The PHI housing market has been buoyed by rising demand and strong price growth in New York and Washington, which has made PHI a bargain. Strong demand-side fundamentals, such as steady income growth and above average affordability, are pushing the market back into equilibrium, steadily reducing the months of excess housing supply over the past two years. On the downside, rising house prices are weighing on housing affordability, which has declined since the beginning of the decade. Going forward, rising interest rates will further weigh on affordability.
40
35
30
25 Montgomery
Chester
Bucks
Delaware
Philadelphia
Précis METRO © 2006 Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. • 121 N. Walnut Street, Suite 500 • West Chester, PA 19380 • 610.235.5000 • [email protected] • www.economy.com For the confidential use of subscribers. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that Moody’s Economy.com, Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This report is available through the Internet at Economy.com/Research.
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