عولمة السلطة العسكرية بفضل توسع منظمة حلف شمال الأطلسي

 

   

‫ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺎﻟﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺭﻋﺎﻴﺔ‬:‫ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬

  

 

‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺤل ﻤﻴﺜﺎﻕ ﻓﺎﺭﺴﻭﻓﻴﺎ ﻭﺘﻔﻜﻙ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻓﻴﻴﺘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﻡ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺸﻴﺌﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﺱ ﻤﻬﻤﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻅﻠﺕ ﺘﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻋﻘﺏ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﻤﺘﺩ ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫‪ ،1999‬ﻗﺒل ﺤﺭﺒﻬﺎ ﻀﺩ ﻴﻭﻏﻭﺴﻼﻓﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻗﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻤﺠﺎل ﻤﻬﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ‬

‫ﺴﺘﺘﺤﻭل ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻭﺓ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺼﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻔﺎ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻤﻁﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺒﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺤﺎﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﺓ ﻁﺭﻕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺼﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﻨﺎﺒﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺒﺭﻫﺎ ﻨﺎﻗﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‪.‬‬

‫ﻫل ﺘﻭﻅﻑ "ﻓﻘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩل " ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ؟‬

‫ﻁﺎﻟﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺌﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺭﻴﺸﺎﺭﺩ ﻟﻭﻏﺎﺭ ‪ Richard Lugar‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﺘﻬﺏ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﺠﺩﺓ ﻜل ﺒﻠﺩ ﻋﻀﻭ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﻷﻱ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﺒﺭﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل‪ ،‬ﺤﺴﺏ ﺭﺃﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ‪ 5‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩل‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻘﺩ ﺤﻅﻴﺕ ﻓﻜﺭﺘﻪ ﺒﺩﻋﻡ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺩﺭﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻟﺘﺯﻭﻴﺩﻫﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻨﻘل ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺘﻭﺭ ﻟﻭﻏﺎﺭ ‪ Lugar‬ﻗﻭﻟﻪ‪" :‬ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻔﻬﻡ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻓﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﻀﻭ ﻴﻀﻁﺭ ﻟﻠﺨﻀﻭﻉ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻤﻨﻊ ﺘﺯﻭﺩﻩ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﻋﻀﻭ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻪ‬

‫ﺤﺼﺎﺭﺍ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺩﻩ‪(1) ".‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺒﺭﺭ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﻱ ﻫﺠﻭﻡ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻠﺩ ﻋﻀﻭ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﻫﺠﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ‪ .‬ﺇﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﺴﺎﺱ "ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩل"‪.‬‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻭﻜل ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻔﻴﺩ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﻜل ﻋﻀﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻴ‪‬ﻤﻨﻊ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺤﻅﻰ ﺒﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﻭﻜﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻗﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺯﻭﻴﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻀﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻋﺩﻭﺍﻨﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺤﺭﺒﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﻻ ﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻟﻠﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻀﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ ﻟﺩﻯ‬

‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺤﺎل ﻗﺒﻠﺕ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﺼﻴﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ‬

‫ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺍ ﻟﻔﺭﺽ ﻋﻘﻭﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻭﺘﺭﻜﻤﺎﻨﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﻴﻨﻴﺯﻭﻴﻼ‪ ،‬ﻗﺼﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻴﻼﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﺭﻴﺢ ﺃﺩﻟﻰ ﺒﻪ ﺒﻴﺘﺭ ﻤﺎﻨﺩﻟﺴﻭﻥ ‪ ،Peter Mandelson‬ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻭﺽ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪" :‬ﺇﻥ ﻜﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻓﻴﻥ ]ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ[ ﻴﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﻌﻤل ﺴﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ ".‬ﻭﺃﻀﺎﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺒﻲ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺃﺴﻭﺀ ﺤﺎﻻﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ "ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬

‫ﺇﻤﺩﺍﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ"‪ (2).‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭﺕ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺅﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺭﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻹﻗﺎﻤﺔ ﺩﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺘﺭﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻴﻼﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺠﺩ ﻜل‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺃﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻤﺤﺎﻁﺔ ﺒﺤﺯﺍﻡ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭﻩ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﺠﺯﺀﺍ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺫﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻴﺸﻜل ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻭﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻔﺎ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺎ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫"ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺒﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻭﻟﺕ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﺒﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺘﻨﻔﺫ ﻤﻬﻤﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺭﻓﻘﺔ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺀ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻌل ﺃﻭﻀﺢ ﺘﺠﻠﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭل ﻴﺒﺭﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﻐﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭل ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ ﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﺩل ﺤﻭل "ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺩﺍﺨل ﻨﻁﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ‬

‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻪ" ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻁﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻭﺫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺵ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺸﻤل ﻜل ﻤﺠﺎل‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻻ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺇﻨﻬﺎ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﺒﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﻴﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﺩ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻟﻠﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﺩﺩ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻗﺩﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻭﺍﺭﺉ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺤﻭﻻ ﻫﺎﺌﻼ‪".‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﻨﻴﺎل ﻓﺭﻴﻴﺩ ‪ Daniel Fried‬ﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺅﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭ‪-‬ﺁﺴﻴﺎﻭﻴﺔ )‪17‬‬ ‫ﺃﺒﺭﻴل ‪.(2007‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺯﻡ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﺭﺍﻁ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺫﻱ "ﺒﻌﺩ ﺸﺎﻤل"‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﻴﺤﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻭﺓ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻀﻡ ﺩﻭﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺭﻏﻡ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﺨﺫ ﺭﺴﻤﻴﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺸﺭﻋﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭل‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ "ﻋﻭﻟﻤﺔ" ﻗﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻗﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻓﻐﺎﻨﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺨﺒﻁﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻓﻐﺎﻨﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻘﺩ‬

‫ﺩﻋﻤﺕ ﺤﻀﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻘﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻴﻭﻏﻭﺴﻼﻓﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺜﻡ ﺇﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻌﺘﺯﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﺩﺨﻼﺕ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ؛ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺼﻔﻪ‬

‫ﺨﺼﻭﻤﻬﺎ ﺒـ "ﻤﺴﺭﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‪".‬‬

‫ﺜﻡ ﺇﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺘﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﻟﻭ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ )‪ ،(3‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻴﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﺃﺴﻁﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻷﺤﻤﺭ ﻭﺒﺤﺭ ﻋ‪‬ﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻗﻭﺍﺕ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﺩﻭل ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺃﻟﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺍﻨﻤﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﻟﻀﺭﺏ ﺴﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺤﺭﺏ‪(4) .‬‬

‫ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻭﺯﺤﻔﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪" :‬ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺃﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ"‬

‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺩﺨﻠﺕ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺭﺴﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺃﻋﻠﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ‬

‫ﺜﺎﻤﺭ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺘﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺒﻼﺩﻩ‬

‫ﻗﺩ ﺃﺒﺭﻤﺕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺠﻤﻊ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻴﻭﻤﻲ ‪ 11‬ﻭ‪ 12‬ﻤﻥ ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ ‪ .2006‬ﻴﻀﻡ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺃﻋﻴﺩﺕ ﺘﺴﻤﻴﺘﻪ "ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ"‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻗﻁﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻋ‪‬ﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬

‫ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﻡ ﺒﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﻤﻰ "ﻗﻭﺓ ﺩﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ "؛ ﺜﻡ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻜل ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻔﺎﻭﻀﺎﺕ ﻤﻊ ﻗﻁﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺁﺨﺭﻴﻥ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻟﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻠﺤﻠﻑ ﺤﻀﻭﺭ ﺭﺴﻤﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻭﻹﺒﺭﺍﻡ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻴﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺠﺯﺀﺍﹰ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁﻲ‬

‫ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﻤﺼﺭ ﻭﺇﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴل ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ )‪ .(5‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ "ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻲ" ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ‪" :‬ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﺩﻟﻴﻥ"‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻭﺩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻭﺴﻭﺭﻴﺎ "ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻁﺭﻓﻴﻥ"‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﻘﺏ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻴﺜﺒﺕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺒﻴﻥ‬

‫ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺒﺼﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻗﻭﺓ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ‬

‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺠﻴﻭ‪-‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﻭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ ﻭﺇﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴل ﻁﻠﻴﻌﺔ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﻤﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺼﺏ ﺘﺭﺴﺎﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺭﻭﺨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺩﻤﺕ‬

‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺘﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﻭﺃﺠﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺩﺍﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺭﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻫﻭ "ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ" ﺃﻭﻻ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﺤﻭل‬

‫ﺇﻟﻰ "ﺍﺠﺘﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ"‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﺼﺎﺭ ﻤﺒﺭﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺠﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺤﻠﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺠﻤﻊ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻠﻘﻰ‬

‫ﺘﻔﻭﻴﻀﻪ ﻤﻥ "ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺇﺴﻁﺎﻤﺒﻭل ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ"‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺼﺹ ﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺤﻤ‪‬ل ﻋﻨﻭﺍﻥ "ﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ" ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺠﻌل ﻤﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻫﺩﻓﺎ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺍ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺒﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫)‪(6‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺤﻠﻔﺎﺀ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻴﻁﻭﻗﻭﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ‪ ،‬ﺍﻨﻌﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻤﻨﺎﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬

‫ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻭﺃﺴﺘﺭﺍﻟﻴﺎ؛ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺜﺒﺕ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﺭﻋﻲ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﺍﻷﻟﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﺒﺩﺃ ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ ﺭﻴﺠﺎ ‪ Riga‬ﺒﻠﺘﻭﺍﻨﻴﺎ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪.2006‬‬ ‫)‪.(7‬‬

‫ﺘﻀﻤﺭ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺭﻤﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‬

‫ﺩﻻﻻﺕ ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻪ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﺍﻷﻟﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﻻ ﺒﺎﻟﻔﻌل‪ .‬ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ ﺜﺎﻤﺭ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻴﺩل ﺒﺸﻜل ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻊ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪ .‬ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﺘﺼﺭﻴﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺎﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﻀﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻤﺴﺌﻭﻟﻲ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻴﺦ ﺨﻠﻴﻔﺔ ﺒﻥ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﻔﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺼﺭﺡ ﻤﺅﺨﺭﺍ‬

‫ﺒﺄﻥ ﺇﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ "ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻫﺠﻭﻡ ﺘﺸﻨﻪ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﺓ" ﻭﺃﻨﻬﻡ "ﺴﻴﺭﺩﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻭﺓ" ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻏﻠﻘﺕ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻤﻀﻴﻕ ﻫﺭﻤﺯ ﻋﻘﺏ ﻀﺭﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ )‪ .(8‬ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻑ‬

‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺼﺭﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﻭﻥ ﺃﻨﻬﻡ ﺠﺎﻫﺯﻭﻥ ﻟﻬﺠﻭﻡ ﺘﻘﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻀﺩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ )‪.(9‬‬

‫ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻫﺠﻭﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻟﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﻻ ﺭﺩﺍ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻗﺒﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﻌﻤل ﺠﻴﻭﺵ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬

‫ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﻤﺠﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﻱ ﻀﺩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﻠﻘﺩ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻟﻘﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﺴﺎﻨﺩﻭﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺠﺘﻴﺎﺤﻬﻡ ﻟﻠﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺭﺍﻀﻴﻬﻡ ﺘﺄﻭﻱ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺒﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ :‬ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻕ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺌﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫"ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺸﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺃﻭﻟﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ‪"...‬‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻨﻔﺭﻴﺩ ﻭﺭﻨﺭ ‪ Manfred Werner‬ﺍﻟﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‬

‫ﺃﻜﺩ ﺭﻭﺒﻴﺭﺕ ﺠﻴﺘﺱ ‪ Robert Gates‬ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻤﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﺍﺏ ﻓﻲ ‪ 7‬ﺸﺒﺎﻁ ‪ ،2007‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻻ‬

‫ﺯﺍﻟﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﺨﺼﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺎل ﺠﻴﺘﺱ ‪Gates‬‬

‫ﺒﺄﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪" :‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻤﻀﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﺘﻨﺠﺯﺍﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺠﺩ ﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ" )‪.(10‬‬

‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺅﺍل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻁﺭﺡ ﻫﻭ‪ :‬ﻤﻥ ﻴﻬﺩﺩ ‪-‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ‪ -‬ﻤﻥ؟ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺱ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻬﺩﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺃﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ؟ ﻭﻫل ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻴﻤﺜﻼﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ؟‬

‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺭﻴﺤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻁﻠﺒﺕ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﻜﻭﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺕ ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﺘﺒﻁﻨﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻗﻭﺍل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ‪ .‬ﻴﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻗﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺱ ﻟﺸﻌﻭﺭﻫﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎﻤﻲ ﺒﺘﻀﺎﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻭﻟﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﻟﻘﺩ ﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺎﺭ ﻴﻀﺭﺏ ﺤﻭل ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‬

‫ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺌﻬﻤﺎ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺴﻜﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬

‫ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻤﻁﻭﻗﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ؛ ﻭﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻓﻠﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺭﺍﻗﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻭﺍﺼل ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﺭﻏﻡ ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﻭﻋﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ؛ ﻓﺎﻟﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻨﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺘﺤﻴﻁ ﺒﺎﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻭﻓﺩﺭﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﻁﺭ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ‬

‫ﺼﺭﺡ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﺒﻭﺘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ‪ 27‬ﻓﺒﺭﺍﻴﺭ ‪ ،2007‬ﺨﻼل ﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﻤﻴﻭﻨﺦ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻷﻤﻥ‪،‬‬

‫ﺒﺄﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﺩﺭﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻜﺭ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻗﺩ ﻭﻋﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺸﺭﻗﺎ )‪ .(11‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺒﻭﺭﻴﺱ ﻴﻠﺘﺴﻥ ‪Boris Eltsine‬‬

‫ﻗﺩ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑ ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻕ ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻁﻴﻕ ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺨﻁﺎﺏ ﺒﻭﺘﻴﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺘﺼﺭﻴﺢ ﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻵﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻴﺩل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺘﺤﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻬﺩﺩ ﺤﺩﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺠﻭﺭﺠﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻟﻡ ﻴﻌﺩ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻠﺘﺯﻤﺎ " ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻴﺵ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻤﻲ"‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﺍﺀ ﺇﻴﻭﺭﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﻭﻴﻴﻔﺴﻜﻲ ‪ ،Youri Baluyevsky‬ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺃﺭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻟﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﺃﻨﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺱ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﻡ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻁﺎﻟﺏ‪ ،‬ﺭﻓﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻋﻘﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪(12) .‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻁﻠﻘﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﻴﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ )ﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺒﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ ﻭﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻙ( ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ‪،‬‬

‫ﺒﻐﺭﺽ ﺇﻗﺎﻤﺔ ﺩﺭﻋﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻀﺎﺩﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ‪ ،‬ﺘﻬﺩﺩ ﻜﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﺄﺤﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻋﻴﻥ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﻨﺼﺒﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﻨﺼﺏ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻤﺕ‬

‫ﺇﻗﺎﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻋﻴﻥ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺫﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺭﻭﺨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﻀﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‬

‫ﻭﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﻭﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺼﺭﺡ ﺇﻴﻭﺭﻱ ﺴﻭﻟﻭﻓﻴﻴﻑ ‪ Iouri Soloviev،‬ﻗﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺵ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﻨﺼﺏ‬

‫ﻤﻀﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻨﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪" :‬ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻫﻨﺎ‬ ‫]ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺼﻭﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ[ ﺒﻘﻀﻴﺔ ﺠﺩ ﻤﻠﺤﺔ ﻭﻏﺎﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺠﺭﻨﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺴﺒﺎﻕ ﺘﺴﻠﺢ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ")‪.(13‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻥ ﺩﺭﻉ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻴﺤﺘﻤل ﺃﻥ ﻴﻘﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻗﺎﺯ ﺃﻭ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻜﺭﺍﻨﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ‬

‫ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺘﻲ ﺃﺫﺭﺒﺠﺎﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺭﺠﻴﺎ ﻤﺭﺸﺤﺘﺎﻥ ﺒﻘﻭﺓ ﻹﻴﻭﺍﺀ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻗﺎﺯ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﺍﺀ ﻓﻼﺩﻴﻤﻴﺭ ﺒﻭﺒﻭﻓﻜﻴﻥ ‪ ،Vladimir Popovkine‬ﻗﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪" :‬ﻴ‪‬ﻅﻬﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻗﺎﻤﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺭﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻙ ﻭﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ‬

‫ﻤﻀﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻟﻨﺎ‪ ".‬ﻭﺃﻀﺎﻑ ﺃﻨﻪ‪" :‬ﻟﻴﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻜﺩ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬

‫ﺼﺭﺡ ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ]ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﻭﻥ[‪(14) ".‬‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻤﻊ ﺇﻗﺎﻤﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻙ ﻴﺼﻁﺩﻡ‬

‫ﺒﻤﻌﺎﺭﻀﺔ ﺃﻏﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻜﻲ )‪ (15‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻫل ﺇﺭﺍﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﺏ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜﻠﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺩﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺨﺫ ﻤﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﺠﺩ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺒﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺤﺭﻭﺏ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻊ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺎﻟﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻨﺴﺠﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﺍﺼل ﻋﺴﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺭﻴﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻀﻭ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻹﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ‬

‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺎ ﻟﻨﺼﺏ ﻤﻀﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﺼﺎﺭﻭﺨﻲ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻨﻲ ﻤﺯﻋﻭﻡ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻜﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﻹﻴﻭﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﻉ ﻤﻀﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻌل ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺒﻭﻟﻨﺩﺍ ﻭﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻙ ﻋﻭﻀﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻘﺎﻥ ﻴﺩﻋﻭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﻫﻭ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺩﺭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬

‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﻘﺎﻡ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺩﺭﻉ ﺁﺨﺭ ﺒﻤﺤﺎﺫﺍﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺘﻅﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻲ ﺒﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻨﺼﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺇﻗﺎﻤﺔ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻘﺩ ﺸﺭﻋﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺠﺎﺯ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻠﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺩ‬

‫ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪1999‬؛ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻏﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 1999‬ﻫﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﺕ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﻜﺫﺍ ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﻀﺩ ﻴﻭﻏﻭﺴﻼﻓﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬

‫)‪ .(16‬ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﺤﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﻜﻤﺎل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺴﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻘﻑ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﻭﺘﻨﺩﺭﺝ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻋﻭﻟﻤﺔ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﺸﺭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻕ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺌﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻤﻭﺍﺯﺍﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻨﺨﺭﻁﺕ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﺃﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻀﺤﺕ ﻫﺩﻓﺎ ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻗﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘﻭﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ‪ :‬ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺭﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺜﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﻟﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺩﻋﻡ‬

‫ﻟﻭﺠﺴﺘﻲ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻷﻱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﻀﺩ ﺃﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻜﺘﺴﻲ ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺠﻴﻭ‪ -‬ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﺒﻔﻀل ﻤﻭﻗﻌﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻲ‬

‫ﻭﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺫﺍ ﺘﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﻭﻯ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍ ﻟﻁﺭﻕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻴﻜﺘﺴﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﻷﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬

‫ﻭﻟﺘﻘﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﻗﻭﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻨﺸﻭﺏ ﺤﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻨﺤﻭﻫﺎ ]‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ[‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭﻩ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺠﺩ ﻤﺤﺘﻤل‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺤﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻀﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺸﻠل ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﻨﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻌل ﻀﺭﺏ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﺤﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻴﺭﻭﻡ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺯﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﻴﻜﺘﺴﻲ ﻤﻀﻴﻘﺎ ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﻭﻤﻠﻘﺔ ‪ Malacca‬ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺠﻴﻭ‪-‬ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻨﻘل‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻴﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺯﻭﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺴﻴﻤﺜل ﻏﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻘﻴﻥ ﻭﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭ ﺤﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‬

‫ﻀﺭﺒﺔ ﻗﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻤﺜﻠﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﻗﺩﺍﻡ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﻠﻕ ﻤﻀﻴﻕ ﻫﺭﻤﺯ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻀﺭﺒﺔ ﻗﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ؛ ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺘﺭﺍﻗﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﺎ ﺩﺍﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺠﺩ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻤﺭ ﻻ ﺘﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﺘﻅل ﺘﺤﺕ ﺭﺤﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﹸﺨﻀﻊ ﻤﻀﻴﻘﻲ ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﻭﻤﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﺤﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺠﻌل ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﻭﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻗﺭﺏ ﺤﻠﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻤﺕ‬

‫ﻋﺴﻜﺭﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻗﻭﻱ ﺠﺩﺍ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻴﻘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﻴﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺤﺎل ﻨﺸﻭﺏ ﺤﺭﺏ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻟﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﻭﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ ﺨﻁﻁ ﻁﻭﺍﺭﺉ‬

‫ﺠﺎﻫﺯﺓ ﻟﻤﻨﻊ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻀﻴﻕ ﻤﻠﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﻟﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻨﺎﻗﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻭﺇﻴﻘﺎﻓﻬﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﻀﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺎل‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻀﻊ ﺤﺩﺍ ﻟﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺩﻟﻌﺕ ﺤﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺜﻡ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺠﺩ ﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﻭﺍﺼﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻤﺭ ﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺘﺩﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﻀﻌﻴﻑ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺃﻱ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻀﺭﺏ‬

‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺘﺯﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﻴﺒﺫﻟﻭﻥ‬

‫ﻗﺼﺎﺭﻯ ﺠﻬﺩﻫﻡ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﻡ ﻟﺘﻔﺭﻴﻎ ﺸﺤﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻷﻨﺎﺒﻴﺏ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ ﻭﻓﺩﺭﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﺭﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻭﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻤﻤﺭ‬

‫ﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻀﺭﺒﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺤﺼﺎﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺤﺎﺩﺜﺎﺕ ﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺃﻨﺒﻭﺏ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺒﻁ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺒﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ‪(17).‬‬

‫ﻋﺎﺭﻀﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ ﻤﺅﻜﺩﺓ ﺃﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺵ ﺤﻭل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻑ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎ ﻤﺘﻌﻤﺩﺍ ﻟﺘﻌﻁﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻹﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺤﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﺩﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﺍﻨﺒﻌﺎﺙ ﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺃﻜﺴﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﺒﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻀﺭ ﺒﻨﺸﺎﻁﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )‪.(18‬‬

‫ﺘﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺤﻀﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ‬

‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺤﻀﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻭﺍﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺒﻁﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺴﺒﻕ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺃﺸﺎﺭ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﻨﺸﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻬﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺭﺍﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ )‪ (ASPI‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ‬

‫ﺴﺒﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺢ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﻡ ﻭﺴﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻤﺎ ﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ " :‬ﺘﺠﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻊ ]ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻴﻴﻥ[ ﻤﻠﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻭﺱ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﺘﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺒﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺼﻭﻻ ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﺭﻭﺭﺍ ﺒﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺸﺭﻕ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‪(19) ".‬‬

‫ﻭﻜﺘﺏ ﺒﻴل ﻜﻴﺭﺘﺯ ‪ Bill Gertz‬ﻓﻲ ﺼﺤﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺸﻨﻁﻥ ﺘﺎﻴﻤﺯ ‪" :‬ﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ‪،‬‬

‫ﻅل ﺴﺭﻴﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﻟﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺩﻭﻨﺎﻟﺩ ﺭﺍﻤﺴﻔﻴﻠﺩ ‪،Donald H. Rumsfeld‬‬

‫ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺼﺩﺩ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻗﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻗﺎﻤﺔ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺨﻁﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﺔ ﺍﺒﺘﺩﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻴﺢ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺫﻑ ﺒﻘﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﻟﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‪(20) ".‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺁﺨﺭ ﺸﺭﻋﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻓﻌﻼ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺒﺤﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻲ ﻭﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﺼل ﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘل ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺤﺭﺹ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺇﻤﺩﺍﺩﺍﺘﻬﻡ‬

‫ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻋﺩﻭﺍﻥ ﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺘﺸﻨﻪ ﻀﺩﻫﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺅﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺴﻤﻲ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺒـ " ﺼﻨﻑ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻫﺭ" ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﻭ‪ -‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ‪(21) .‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﻭ‪-‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﺭﻴﻼﻨﻜﺎ ‪Sri Lanka‬‬

‫ﺘﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﻱ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻗﺎﻤﻭﺍ ﺒﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ‬

‫ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﻴﻨﺎﺀ ﺠﻭﺍﺩﺍﺭ ‪ Gwadar‬ﺒﺒﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺎﺤل ﺒﺤﺭ ﻋ‪‬ﻤﺎﻥ ؛ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﻡ ﻭﻗﻌﻭﺍ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻊ ﺴﺭﻴﻼﻨﻜﺎ )ﺴﻴﻼﻥ( ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻤﻴﻨﺎﺀ "ﻫﺎﻤﺎﺒﺎﻁﻭﻁﺎ" ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﻴﺭﺓ‪ .(22).‬ﻭﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺨﻁﻁﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﻴﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻨﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﺭﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ‪ Birmanie‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺤﻠﻴﻔﺎ ﺠﻴﻭ‪ -‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻨﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻨﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺯﻴل ﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﻋﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﻤﻀﻴﻘﻲ ﺘﺎﻴﻭﺍﻥ ﻭﻤﻠﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻤﺤﺎﺫﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻴﺎﻨﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺴﻜﻙ ﺤﺩﻴﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻟﻠﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﺸﺎﻁﺊ ﻤﻴﺎﻨﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪(23) .‬‬

‫ﺒﻤﻭﺍﺯﺍﺓ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻜل ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺼل‬

‫ﻋﺒﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺜﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻲ ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻱ‪،‬‬

‫ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻀﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻜل‬

‫ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺒﺭﺓ ﻵﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺨﻁ ﺍﻷﻨﺒﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺭﺒﻁ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻬﻨﺩ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺒﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻀﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺒﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﺴﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻴﻌﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﻟﺠﺯﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﺍﻡ ‪Guam‬‬

‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻷﻫﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺒﺼﺩﺩ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﺘﻌﺎﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺘﺭﺍﻟﻴﺎ ﻭﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻠﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺼﻠﺔ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ )‪ .(24‬ﻭﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻗﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺍ ﻤﺜﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﺘﺸﺩﻴﺩ ﺨﻨﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ؛ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ "ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل"‬

‫‪ ISP‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻁﻠﻘﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﻭﺵ ﺍﻻﺒﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 2003‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺠﺘﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻏﻁﺎﺀ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺎ‬

‫ﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﺘﺯﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺩﺨﻠﺕ ﻤﻌﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﺭﺏ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻭ" ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ"‬

‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺠﺒﻬﺔ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﻕ ﻋﻤﻼﻗﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﺴﻴﺎ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻭﺨﺎﻫﺎ " ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻠﺤﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺩﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل" ﻭﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ "ﻗﻭﺍﺕ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ" ﺘﺤﺕ ﺇﻤﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺘﺠﺩ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺯﺍﻭﻴﺔ ﻋﺭﻀﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻪ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻠﻘﺩ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻓﻌﻼ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻗﺎﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺅﻫﺎ ﺘﺘﺸﻜل ﻭﺘﺒﺭﺯ ﻟﻠﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻜﺔ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 40‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺤﺭ ﻋ‪‬ﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ‬

‫)‪ .(25‬ﻭﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﺇﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺘﻬﺩﺩ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻭﺭﺍﺴﻴﺎ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ‪.‬‬

‫"ﺃﺴﻁﻭل ﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻟﻑ ﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ"‬

‫ﺼﺭﺡ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﺍل ﻤﻴﻙ ﻤﻭﻟﻥ ‪ Mike Mullen‬ﻗﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ "ﺃﺴﻁﻭل ﻗﻭﺍﻤﻪ ‪ 1000‬ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ" ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ .(26‬ﻭﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺨﺎﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﻑ ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻴﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ "ﺸﺭﺍﻜﺔ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ" ـ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ـ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻴﻀﻡ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﺒﺸﻘﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺩﻨﻲ‪:‬‬

‫"ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻁﻴل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻨﺊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪(27) ".‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﺘﻁﺒﻕ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺸﻤل ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ‬

‫ﻭﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻭﺃﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﺍل ﻤﻭﻟﻥ ‪ Mullen‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻀﻡ ‪ 45‬ﺴﻔﻴﻨﺔ ﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻤﻬﺎ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻭﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺠﺯﺀﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ .(28‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺏ‪،‬‬

‫ﻓﺘﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ "ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺤﺩﺓ" ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 150‬ﻭ ‪ .152‬ﻭﺘﻌﻤل "ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺤﺩﺓ" ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 150‬ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻋ‪‬ﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻋﺩﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻷﺤﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺒﺤﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺭﺴﻭﺍ ﺴﻔﻥ ﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ "ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺤﺩﺓ" ﺭﻗﻡ‬

‫‪ 152،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻡ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺴﻔﻨﺎ ﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻟﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬

‫ﻤﻘﺭ ﻗﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺩﺭ ﺘﺴﺠﻴﻠﻪ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻜﻭﻥ "ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺤﺩﺓ" ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 152‬ﺘﻌﻤل ﻀﻤﻥ ‪45‬‬

‫ﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ ﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻭﺼﻔﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﺍل ﻤﻭﻟﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﺎﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ؛ ﺇﺫ ﺘﺘﻭﻟﻰ ﻫﺎﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺩﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻭﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺫﻜﻴﺭ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺸﺎﺭﻜﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺘﻲ "ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺭﺍﻕ" ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ‪ ،‬ﻭ"ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ" ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ‪،‬‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻹﻓﺭﻴﻘﻲ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﺎﺱ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﺍﻷﻟﻤﺎﻨﻲ‬

‫ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻱ ﺍﻵﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺃﻭﻟﻲ ﻴﻀﻡ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺃﻓﺭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻭﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ‪ 7‬ﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺴﻨﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﻭﻥ ﻓﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﻟﻌﺩﺓ ﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻭﻟﻨﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻨﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺘﺭﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻜﺴﺘﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺀ؛ ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺒﻊ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻭﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁﻰ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺒﺎﻹﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﻭﻕ ﺩﻭﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﺍﻷﻟﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﺩﺍﺨل ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻘﺩ ﺍﺘﺨﺫ ﻤﻥ "ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ " ﺫﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﻟﺯﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻨﺸﺄﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻼﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻬﺩﻑ "ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل‬

‫"‪ " ISP‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺫﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﺘﻬﺭﻴﺏ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ‬

‫ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺃﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل ﺃﻭ ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺇﻁﻼﻗﻬﺎ )ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ( ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻹﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﺠﻭﻥ ﺒﻭﻟﺘﻭﻥ ‪John Bolton‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﺸﻐل ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻨﺎﺌﺏ ﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻠﻑ ﺒﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺢ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻁﻠﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺕ ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ ﻓﻲ ‪ 31‬ﻤﺎﻴﻭ ‪ 2003‬ﻻ‬

‫ﺘﺴﺘﺒﻌﺩ ﺨﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻴﺤﻕ ﻟﻠﺒﻭﺍﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻔﺘﺵ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺩﻤﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺘﻴﺵ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺘﺤﺕ ﻁﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻫﻴﺄﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺎﺭ‬

‫)‪ (1982‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻨﺹ ﺼﺭﺍﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﺤﻕ ﻟﻠﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻔﺘﺵ ﺇﻻ ﺴﻔﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻼﺩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺒﻁﻬﺎ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻌﺎﻫﺩﺓ ﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﻨﺤﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﻕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﻤﻨﺢ ﻟﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺘﻌﺴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻔﺘﻴﺵ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺴﻔﻴﻨﺔ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻬﻡ ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫ﻟﻭﺜﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻙ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺠﺢ ﺒﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬

‫ﻗﺭﺼﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻷﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬

‫ﺒﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺘﻤﻨﻊ ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻓﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻔﺘﻴﺸﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﺴﻔﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ‬

‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻷﻱ ﺴﻔﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻟﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ‬

‫ﺴﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺒﻴﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﺸﻲﺀ ﺒﺩﺃ ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻁﺒﻕ ﺤﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺸﻜﻜﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻋﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪(29) .‬‬

‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻭﺠﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺭﻓﻀﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ‪ ،2003‬ﺇﺫ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺭ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺴﻭﻯ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺒﺭﺭ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺤﻠﻔﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﻤﻭﺍﺼﻠﺔ‬

‫ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﺍﻨﻀﻤﺕ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺒﺤﻜﻡ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻊ ﻴﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﻭﺠﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻭﺍﺼﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ‬

‫ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﻭﺘﻔﺘﻴﺵ ﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﺫﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻗﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﺘﺤﺕ ﺭﺍﻴﺔ "ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل" ؛ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺸﺎﺭﻜﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬

‫ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﻟﻴﺎ ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ ﻭﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻴﻁﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻟﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﻁﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻨﺫ ﺘﻔﻌﻴل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺘﻡ ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﻭﺘﻌﻁﻴل ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻔﻥ ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺇﻥ‬

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‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺘﻅل ﻤﻬﺩﺩﺓ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻴﺫﻜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻓﺭﻀﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺘﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺒل‬

‫ﺍﺠﺘﻴﺎﺤﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺒﺭﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ ﺇﻴﻘﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺼﻼﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻴﻬﻴﺊ ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺘﺘﻀﺢ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻁﻤﻭﺤﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺴﻭﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻬﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺸﺘﺩ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻤﻀﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻥ ﻫﻡ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﻘﺔ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ‬

‫ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻻ ﻴﻘﻑ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻓﻴﻴﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻑ ﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺤﻠﻑ ﻤﻭﺍﺯ‪ ،‬ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﺎ ﻤﻥ‬

‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻟﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤل ﺍﻷﺴﻴﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﺩﻱ )‪ .(30‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ‬

‫ﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻵﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺜﻤﺔ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺃﻭﺭﻭ‪-‬ﺃﺴﻴﻭﻱ ﺁﺨﺫ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻜل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﻑ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭل‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ )ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ( ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻓﻌﻼ ﻟﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺎﻟﻑ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻠﻑ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻁﻠﺴﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻬﻴﺄﺓ ﻭﻗﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺩﺨﻭل ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ "ﺤﺭﺏ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ" ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘﻭﺩ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻠﺏ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﺴﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺹ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻲ ﺒﺎﻹﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪«The Globalization of Military Power: NATO Expansion, NATO and the‬‬ ‫‪broader network of US sponsored military alliances», 18 mai 2007.‬‬ ‫****************************************‬

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  ‫ﻫﻭﺍﻤﺵ‬ 1 Judy Dempsey, U.S. senator urges use of Nato defense clause for energy, International Herald Tribune, 28.11.2006. 2 Mu Xuequan, Mandelson: Mistrust between Russia, EU worst since Cold War ends, Xinhua News Agency, 21.4.2007. 3 Pr. Michel Chossudovsky, Behind Closed Doors: Nato’s Riga Security Conference, Centre for Research on Globalization, 26.11.2007. «Riga», the Latvian capital, was the place of a historical Nato conference which involved all the major decision makers, parties, corporations, and individuals within the Nato alliance. The Belarusian Opposition was also invited. Debating «War and Peace» behind Closed Doors: Nato’s Riga Security Conference, by Pr. Michel Chossudovsky, outlines the Nato program being discussed behind closed doors and provides a comprehensive list of attendants and participants of the Trans-Atlantic summit in Latvia. 4 Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The March to War: Naval build-up in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), 1.10.2006. 5 Kuwait to sign Nato security agreement during Gulf conference next week, Kuwait News Agency (KUNA), 6.12.2006. 6 Kuwait to sign Nato agreement, Op. cit. 7 Pr. Michel Chossudovsky, «Weapons of Mass Destruction:» Building a Pretext for Waging War on Iran?, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), 1.11.2006. 8 Gulf states «can respond to attack,» Gulf Daily News, Vol. XXIX (29), No. 364, 19.3.2007. 9 B. Izzak, Kuwait prepared for any US-Iran war, Kuwait Times, 10.5.2007. 10 Robert M. Gates, Posture Statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee (Testimony, Senate Armed Services Committee, Washington, District of Columbia, 6.2.2007). 11 Vladimir Putin, Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy (Address, Munich Conference on Security Policy, Munich, Bavaria, 10.2.2007). 12 U.S. Anti-Missile Systems in Europe Threatens Russia-General, MoscNews, 9.2.2007. 13 U.S. Anti-missile Shield in Europe May Cause Arms Race-Russian General, MoscNews, 16.3.2007. 14 U.S. anti-missile shield threatens Russia-General, Reuters, 22.1.2007. 15 Mark John, U.S. missile plan triggers Nato tensions, Reuters, 5.3.2007. 16 Sarah Suk, U.S. admiral confident of missile shield effectiveness, Kyodo News, 1.5.2007. 17 Atul Aneja, «Pipeline should extend to China,» The Hindu, 7.5.2007. 18 Chinese object to climate draft, British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), 1.5.2007. 19 Andrew Davies, The enemy down below: Anti-submarine warfare in the ADF (Barton, Australian Capital Territory: Australian Strategic Policy Institute ASPI, Février 2007), page 1.

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  20 Bill Gertz, China builds up strategic sea lanes, The Washington Times, 18.1.2005. «China is building strategic relationships along the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea in ways that suggest defensive and offensive positioning to protect China’s energy interests, but also to serve broad security objectives,» said the report sponsored by the director, Net Assessment, who heads Mr. Rumsfeld’s office on future-oriented strategies. 21 Pallavi Aiyar, India to conduct naval exercises with China, The Hindu, 12.4.2007. 22 Ibid. 23 Ibid. 24 Luan Shanglin, U.S. to stage large-scale war games near Guam, Xinhua News Agency, 11.4.2007. 25 Naval chief: U.S. has no plan to attack Iran, Xinhua News Agency, 17.4.2007. 26 Thom Shanker, U.S. and Britain to Add Ships to Persian Gulf in Signal to Iran, The New York Times, 21.12.2006. 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Malaysia in no hurry to join U.S.-led security pact, Reuters, 17.4.2007. 30 Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Global Military Alliance: Encircling Russia and China, Centre for Research on Globalization, 10.5.2007.

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