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SESSION 1: ECONOMIC SECTOR AND DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW Patrick Leung, Executive Partner, Accenture
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 16 January 2008 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Travel and tourism is a surprisingly important industry MASTER STAMP
Industries share at global GDP in % 3%
4%
4%
Automotive*
Agriculture*
T&T
T&T industries share at countries GDP in % 4%
4%
USA
France
2% China
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007; *Estimates
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
China will play a key role in the global travel and tourism industry soon MASTER STAMP Rankings in T&T industry by country (2007-2017)
T&T demand
T&T industry Number of foreign share of GDP visitors 2007 2017 2007 2017 1 1 2 3
2007 1
2017 1
Japan
2
3
2
2
6
6
Germany
3
4
5
7
5
5
China UK
4 5
2 5
8 6
3 6
3 4
2 4
France
6
6
3
5
1
1
USA
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
The increasing global importance of China’s T&T industry is supported by high revenue growth MASTER T&T industry revenues by country/region, forecast forSTAMP 2007-2017 (USD bn)
+48%
1.200 1.000
2007 2017
+62%
800 600 +257%
400 200 0
USA
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
UK
DE
FR
EU
CHN
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
1%
As China’s economy develops, the demand for skilled service people will increase MASTER STAMP Employees in selected countries by economic sectors (2006)
26%
22% 47% Agriculture
71%
74%
23% Industries 31%
Germany
France
Services
China
* Footnote Source: Eurostat Source 2007, China Statistical Yearbook 2006
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
China’s T&T industry will need 1,6 million additional employees MASTER STAMP Number of T&T employees in selected countries, forecast for 2007-2017 (‘000 employees)
30.000
+1.880
2007 2017
25.000
+1.582
20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0
USA
UK
DE
FR
EU
CHN
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Projected productivity growth challenges the ability to supply relevant skills Chinese T&T employees per 1.000 USD GDP 435
247
2001
2006
MASTER STAMP
72 2016
Chinese T&T students per 1.000 T&T employees 7 2001
22
?
2006
2016
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007, CNTA 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Above average attrition rates impact the skill development MASTER STAMP Average attrition rate of employees in China (2007)
20% 5-10% Other industries
T&T
* Footnote Source: ChinaINFOBANK Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
The hospitality industry still lacks attractivity for highly skilled people STAMP Average yearly wage levels in China by industryMASTER (2006)
IT
Financial services
Manufacturing
Hospitality services*
0
15
30
45
‘000 Rmb
* Footnote *Source: ComprisesSource accommodation and catering services. Source: CEIC Data of ISI Emerging Markets (2006)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
In addition to employees, also the potential managers need to be convinced MASTER STAMP No T&T company amoungst the most admired companies in China 2007 (executives)
1
Company China Mobile Communications
Industry Telecom
2
China Telecommunications
Telecom
3
Shanghai Baosteel Group
Manufacturing
4
China State Construction
Construction
5
China National Petroleum
Oil & Gas
6
Sinopec
Oil & Gas
7
China Railway Engineering
Construction
* Footnote Source: Forbes Sources: Source Global 2000 (2007) , Fortune’s Most Admired Companies (2007)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
7
Closing the perception gap in China’s service quality is a further key challenge to the future of the tourism industry MASTER STAMP
Perceived Service Quality in China’s Hotel Industry, Illustrative Survey shows that… tourists’ perceptions of service quality provided in the hotel industry in China were consistently lower than their expectations and that managers overestimated the service delivery, compared to tourists’ perceptions of actual service quality, in the hotel industry in China.
Tourist
Perception Gap Hotel Manager
* Footnote Source: International Source Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, (2000)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Companies are setting up training programs to address the need for higher skills A large foreign hotel group
MASTER STAMP
• High potential Talent development Program • Minimum 6 hours compulsory training
A large Chinese travel agency • Comprehensive training to help campus recruitment graduates be on board • Overseas training and education for future leader candidates • Establishment of corporate university
* Footnote Source: ChinaINFOBANK Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
The flagship hospitality companies are first examples of successful talent management MASTER STAMP
The best employers in China (2007) Organisation
Industry
1 Spansion Ltd.
Electronics
2 Four Seasons Hotel Shanghai
Travel and Tourism
3 Shanghai Johnson Limited
Electronics
4 Three On the Bund
Travel and Tourism
5 Federal Express Ltd.
Transportation
6 Intercontinental Pudong Shanghai
Travel and Tourism
7 Nanfang Lee Kum Kee Co., Ltd.
Electronics
8 Shangri-La's Kerry Centre Hotel Beijing
Travel and Tourism
9 Renaissance Beijing Hotel
Travel and Tourism
10 Accenture (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
Consulting
* Footnote Source: BestSource Employers in China Award (Hewitt Associates 2007)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Summary STAMP 1. China’s T&T industry will be number two inMASTER 10 years in terms of foreign visitors and total demand
2. Over 1,5 million additional employees are needed for this growth – but with higher skill levels 3. Image problem is a key barrier for retaining talent 4. Companies are starting to react through training and talent management 5. A consolidated approach between industry, educational and national organization is required to address the challenges ahead * Source:
Footnote Source
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Attachment MASTER STAMP
* Source:
Footnote Source
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
.
Chinese tourists are increasingly venturing outside of China MASTER STAMP Growth of outbound and domestic Chinese tourists
35 Total outbound domestic residents
30 25 20 15
Total domestic tourists
10 5 0 2001
2002
* Footnote Source: ChinaBusinessReview Source 2007
2003
2004
2005
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
3%
Foreign tourists by Country and Region in China Africa 2003 Latin America Oceanic and Pacific Islands North America
MASTER STAMP
9%
Europe
23%
Asia 64%
UK 11% Germany 9% 6% France 53% Italy Russia The Netherlands Portugal Switzerland Sweden
India Indonesia Thailand Japan 31% South Korea 27% Malaysia Singapore Mongolia The Philippines
* Footnote Source: China Source Business Review 2005
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
9%
Travel and tourism market is still dominated by the domestic travel Inbound Tourism Receipts breakdown (2005)
MASTER STAMP
USD 29,3 bn Long distance transport Shopping Accommodation Others Food & Beverage Entertainment Sightseeing Local transportation Communication
28%
22%
13%
11% 4% 3%
9% 6%
4%
* Footnote Source: CNTO Source 2005
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Chinas tourism skill shortage roots in educational problems Supply – demand gap is increasing due to rapid growth
• Tourism education in China plays an important role of MASTER STAMP supporting tourism development and ensuring the continuous supply of quality human resources to meet the overwhelming industry requirements.
Poor curriculum design at tourism education in China
• A big gap exists between supply and demand for quality personnel, as the tourism industry is growing rapidly in China. • A key dilemma of tourism education in China is poor curriculum design.
To few graduates with too low quality skills in tourism
• Graduates from tourism education institutes and vocational training schools cannot fulfil industry needs and demands in terms of quality and quantity.
* Footnote Source: International Source Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 2000 Vol.12
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
2.0
Chinese T&T market is characterized by an above-average growth in T&T revenues and employees MASTER STAMP
Travel and Tourism employees and revenue CAGR, (2007-17) in % Employees
Revenues
Rev growth
Rev growth
15 10
15
CHN
USA
10 UK
UK EU
5
CHN
GER
USA
FR
5
EU
FR
GER
0
0 -0.5
0.0Employee 0.5 growth 1.0 1.5
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
2.0
-0.5
0.0Employee 0.5 growth 1.0 1.5
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
2.0
(Storyline) Increasing deficit for T&T talent in China
MASTER STAMP
War for talent
China’s T&T industry Growing demand for T&T talent in China
Insufficient supply for T&T talent in China
Increasing importance of T&T for China
Insufficient educational capacity
Size
Growth
• % of GDP by • Forecasted % industry of GDP • # of foreign • Forecasted # and domestic of foreign visitors visitors • T&T revenue CAGR * Source:
Increasing demand for talent in T&T in China Size • T&T workforce market
Growth • T&T workforce CAGR • Share of service in economy
Size • # of T&T universities • % of curricula • # of travel graduates
Missing industry attractivity
Growth • Growth of travel graduate number • # and size of university grants for T&T
Size • • • •
Wage levels Employer rankings Company sizes General image
Footnote Source
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 16 January 2008 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Travel and tourism is a surprisingly important industry MASTER STAMP
Industries share at global GDP in % 3%
4%
4%
Automotive*
Agriculture*
T&T
T&T industries share at countries GDP in % 4%
4%
USA
France
2% China
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007; *Estimates
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
China will play a key role in the global travel and tourism industry soon MASTER STAMP Rankings in T&T industry by country (2007-2017)
T&T demand
T&T industry Number of foreign share of GDP visitors 2007 2017 2007 2017 1 1 2 3
2007 1
2017 1
Japan
2
3
2
2
6
6
Germany
3
4
5
7
5
5
China UK
4 5
2 5
8 6
3 6
3 4
2 4
France
6
6
3
5
1
1
USA
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
The increasing global importance of China’s T&T industry is supported by high revenue growth MASTER T&T industry revenues by country/region, forecast forSTAMP 2007-2017 (USD bn)
+48%
1.200 1.000
2007 2017
+62%
800 600 +257%
400 200 0
USA
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
UK
DE
FR
EU
CHN
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
1%
As China’s economy develops, the demand for skilled service people will increase MASTER STAMP Employees in selected countries by economic sectors (2006)
26%
22% 47% Agriculture
71%
74%
23% Industries 31%
Germany
France
Services
China
* Footnote Source: Eurostat Source 2007, China Statistical Yearbook 2006
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
China’s T&T industry will need 1,6 million additional employees MASTER STAMP Number of T&T employees in selected countries, forecast for 2007-2017 (‘000 employees)
30.000
+1.880
2007 2017
25.000
+1.582
20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0
USA
UK
DE
FR
EU
CHN
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Projected productivity growth challenges the ability to supply relevant skills Chinese T&T employees per 1.000 USD GDP 435
247
2001
2006
MASTER STAMP
72 2016
Chinese T&T students per 1.000 T&T employees 7 2001
22
?
2006
2016
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007, CNTA 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Above average attrition rates impact the skill development MASTER STAMP Average attrition rate of employees in China (2007)
20% 5-10% Other industries
T&T
* Footnote Source: ChinaINFOBANK Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
The hospitality industry still lacks attractivity for highly skilled people STAMP Average yearly wage levels in China by industryMASTER (2006)
IT
Financial services
Manufacturing
Hospitality services*
0
15
30
45
‘000 Rmb
* Footnote *Source: ComprisesSource accommodation and catering services. Source: CEIC Data of ISI Emerging Markets (2006)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
In addition to employees, also the potential managers need to be convinced MASTER STAMP No T&T company amoungst the most admired companies in China 2007 (executives)
1
Company China Mobile Communications
Industry Telecom
2
China Telecommunications
Telecom
3
Shanghai Baosteel Group
Manufacturing
4
China State Construction
Construction
5
China National Petroleum
Oil & Gas
6
Sinopec
Oil & Gas
7
China Railway Engineering
Construction
* Footnote Source: Forbes Sources: Source Global 2000 (2007) , Fortune’s Most Admired Companies (2007)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
7
Closing the perception gap in China’s service quality is a further key challenge to the future of the tourism industry MASTER STAMP
Perceived Service Quality in China’s Hotel Industry, Illustrative Survey shows that… tourists’ perceptions of service quality provided in the hotel industry in China were consistently lower than their expectations and that managers overestimated the service delivery, compared to tourists’ perceptions of actual service quality, in the hotel industry in China.
Tourist
Perception Gap Hotel Manager
* Footnote Source: International Source Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, (2000)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Companies are setting up training programs to address the need for higher skills A large foreign hotel group
MASTER STAMP
• High potential Talent development Program • Minimum 6 hours compulsory training
A large Chinese travel agency • Comprehensive training to help campus recruitment graduates be on board • Overseas training and education for future leader candidates • Establishment of corporate university
* Footnote Source: ChinaINFOBANK Source 2007
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
The flagship hospitality companies are first examples of successful talent management MASTER STAMP
The best employers in China (2007) Organisation
Industry
1 Spansion Ltd.
Electronics
2 Four Seasons Hotel Shanghai
Travel and Tourism
3 Shanghai Johnson Limited
Electronics
4 Three On the Bund
Travel and Tourism
5 Federal Express Ltd.
Transportation
6 Intercontinental Pudong Shanghai
Travel and Tourism
7 Nanfang Lee Kum Kee Co., Ltd.
Electronics
8 Shangri-La's Kerry Centre Hotel Beijing
Travel and Tourism
9 Renaissance Beijing Hotel
Travel and Tourism
10 Accenture (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.
Consulting
* Footnote Source: BestSource Employers in China Award (Hewitt Associates 2007)
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Summary STAMP 1. China’s T&T industry will be number two inMASTER 10 years in terms of foreign visitors and total demand
2. Over 1,5 million additional employees are needed for this growth – but with higher skill levels 3. Image problem is a key barrier for retaining talent 4. Companies are starting to react through training and talent management 5. A consolidated approach between industry, educational and national organization is required to address the challenges ahead * Source:
Footnote Source
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Attachment MASTER STAMP
* Source:
Footnote Source
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
.
Chinese tourists are increasingly venturing outside of China MASTER STAMP Growth of outbound and domestic Chinese tourists
35 Total outbound domestic residents
30 25 20 15
Total domestic tourists
10 5 0 2001
2002
* Footnote Source: ChinaBusinessReview Source 2007
2003
2004
2005
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
3%
Foreign tourists by Country and Region in China Africa 2003 Latin America Oceanic and Pacific Islands North America
MASTER STAMP
9%
Europe
23%
Asia 64%
UK 11% Germany 9% 6% France 53% Italy Russia The Netherlands Portugal Switzerland Sweden
India Indonesia Thailand Japan 31% South Korea 27% Malaysia Singapore Mongolia The Philippines
* Footnote Source: China Source Business Review 2005
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
9%
Travel and tourism market is still dominated by the domestic travel Inbound Tourism Receipts breakdown (2005)
MASTER STAMP
USD 29,3 bn Long distance transport Shopping Accommodation Others Food & Beverage Entertainment Sightseeing Local transportation Communication
28%
22%
13%
11% 4% 3%
9% 6%
4%
* Footnote Source: CNTO Source 2005
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
Chinas tourism skill shortage roots in educational problems Supply – demand gap is increasing due to rapid growth
• Tourism education in China plays an important role of MASTER STAMP supporting tourism development and ensuring the continuous supply of quality human resources to meet the overwhelming industry requirements.
Poor curriculum design at tourism education in China
• A big gap exists between supply and demand for quality personnel, as the tourism industry is growing rapidly in China. • A key dilemma of tourism education in China is poor curriculum design.
To few graduates with too low quality skills in tourism
• Graduates from tourism education institutes and vocational training schools cannot fulfil industry needs and demands in terms of quality and quantity.
* Footnote Source: International Source Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 2000 Vol.12
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
2.0
Chinese T&T market is characterized by an above-average growth in T&T revenues and employees MASTER STAMP
Travel and Tourism employees and revenue CAGR, (2007-17) in % Employees
Revenues
Rev growth
Rev growth
15 10
15
CHN
USA
10 UK
UK EU
5
CHN
GER
USA
FR
5
EU
FR
GER
0
0 -0.5
0.0Employee 0.5 growth 1.0 1.5
* Footnote Source: WTTC Source 2007
2.0
-0.5
0.0Employee 0.5 growth 1.0 1.5
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
2.0
(Storyline) Increasing deficit for T&T talent in China
MASTER STAMP
War for talent
China’s T&T industry Growing demand for T&T talent in China
Insufficient supply for T&T talent in China
Increasing importance of T&T for China
Insufficient educational capacity
Size
Growth
• % of GDP by • Forecasted % industry of GDP • # of foreign • Forecasted # and domestic of foreign visitors visitors • T&T revenue CAGR * Source:
Increasing demand for talent in T&T in China Size • T&T workforce market
Growth • T&T workforce CAGR • Share of service in economy
Size • # of T&T universities • % of curricula • # of travel graduates
Missing industry attractivity
Growth • Growth of travel graduate number • # and size of university grants for T&T
Size • • • •
Wage levels Employer rankings Company sizes General image
Footnote Source
WTTC International Conference, Human Resources for China’s Travel & Tourism Industry 1 6 January 20 0 8 at JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai
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