Pa-11: Franklin & Marshall Poll (october 2008)

For immediate release Wednesday, October 15, 2008

October 2008 Franklin & Marshall College Poll PENNSYLVANIA 11 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SURVEY SUMMARY OF FINDINGS th

Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College BERWOOD A. YOST DIRECTOR, FLOYD INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH HEAD METHODOLOGIST, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

G. TERRY MADONNA DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

BRAD A. NANKERVILLE PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH PROJECT MANAGER, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

KAY K. HUEBNER PROGRAMMER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH

October 15, 2008

Table of Contents METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 2 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................. 4 TABLE A-1. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS .......... 9 TABLE A-2. CONGRESSIONAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS .. 10 MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT....................................................................................... 11

Methodology This release summarizes the findings of a survey of 586 registered adults living in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District conducted by Franklin and Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research. The survey interviewing was conducted between October 8 and 12, 2008. The sample error for the entire sample is plus or minus 4.0 percent but is larger for subgroups. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly selected from state voter registration lists. The final sample includes 201 Republicans, 348 Democrats, and 36 adults registered as Independent or something else. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions. This survey used a registration-based sampling (RBS) scheme to identify survey respondents. This sampling process uses voter lists and information about 2

past voting history and date of registration to classify voters into separate strata based on historical turnout in similar, prior elections. Historical turnout information determines the selection probabilities within each stratum. The sample was generated by Voter Contact Services, and a more detailed description of the RBS scheme can be found on their website (http://www.vcsnet.com/rbshelp.html). A methodological study describing the merits of the RBS technique in comparison to traditional random-digit-dialing sampling methodologies can be found in Donald Green and Alan Gerber (2006) “Can Registration-Based Sampling Improve the Accuracy of Mid-Term Election Forecasts?” Public Opinion Quarterly, 70 (2): 197 – 223.

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Key Findings The latest Franklin and Marshall College Poll, conducted in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District, shows 12-term incumbent Democrat Paul Kanjorski trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta by five points, 40 percent to 35 percent. Barletta’s advantage has been nearly halved since September, when he led Kanjorski by nine points. The 11th Congressional District is a democratic-leaning district located in Northeastern Pennsylvania, including the City of Scranton. John Kerry beat President Bush by six points in 2004 in the 11th CD and Al Gore beat President Bush by nine points there in 2000. Congressman Kanjorski’s closest election to date was in 2002 when he beat Barletta 56 percent to 42 percent. Congressman Kanjorski faces several significant hurdles in his re-election effort. First, less than two in five (35%) registered adults in the district believe he deserves re-election, which is unchanged since September. Second, Kanjorski’s support among registered Democrats remains weak; only half of Democrats are planning to vote for him (Figure 1). Lou Barletta is supported by about two in three Republicans and three in five independent voters.

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Figure 1. Pennsylvania 11th CD Vote Choice by Party Registration

September 2008

Republicans

Kanjorski

Barletta

11

69

Democrats

Other

21

51

Independents/ Other

28

27

Don’t know

1

21

54

19

October 2008

Republicans

Kanjorski

Barletta

11

65

Democrats

Independents/ Other

Don’t know

24

52

11

Other

23

60

1

24

29

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One advantage for Congressman Kanjorski is that economic concerns are more frequently mentioned, and immigration is less frequently mentioned, as the main issue driving congressional vote choice. About one in four (29%) registered adults say the economy is the primary issue driving their congressional vote choice, up from 21 percent in September, and only one in ten (12%) say immigration is driving their vote (see Table 1). Kanjorski has a decided advantage among those who are voting on economic issues while Barletta has a clear advantage among those concerned about immigration. A second advantage for Congressman Kanjorski is that President Bush’s approval ratings continue to fall. Voters who rate the President lower are more likely to plan to vote for the Congressman. Table 1. Pennsylvania 11th CD Vote Choice by Main Issue % of Cases Economy 29% Government, politicians 16% Immigration, illegal immigration 12% Taxes 5% Health care, insurance 4% Values, morality, religion 2% Elder issues, social security 2% Gasoline/oil prices, energy 1% Education, school 1% Iraq War 1% Other 6% Don’t know 23%

Barletta 31% 57% 81% 31% 23% 54% 10% 20% 0% 14% 59% 23%

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Kanjorski 43% 32% 7% 31% 64% 23% 70% 0% 75% 57% 32% 37%

Other 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0%

DK 24% 12% 12% 38% 14% 23% 20% 80% 0% 29% 9% 40%

The outcome of the Kanjorski-Barletta race remains uncertain because we do not know which will matter more on election day: voters’ ratings of the incumbent’s performance or their feelings about the economy and President. Voters’ attitudes about the incumbent’s job performance provide an advantage for his popular challenger. More voters than not believe there is need for Congressional change and many voters have an unfavorable opinion of Kanjorski. Yet, the political environment favors Democratic candidates—concerns about the economy continue to rise and President Bush’s job approval ratings continue to fall—and this could help the incumbent overcome his low performance ratings.

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The Presidential Race Barack Obama leads John McCain in the 11th Congressional District, 46 percent to 37 percent, with about 14 percent undecided. Obama’s advantage is larger among likely voters, 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama and McCain garner similar levels of support from their partisans (see Figure 2). Obama has a sizable lead among women. McCain leads among Protestants, and Obama leads among Catholics (see Table A-1). By far, the economy is the primary issue driving voter preferences in the presidential election (53%). Figure 2. Presidential Vote Choice in PA 11th by Party Registration

September 2008

Republicans

Obama

McCain

10

77

Democrats

Other Don’t know

1

65

Independents/ Other

17

31

47

3

12

15

8

14

October 2008 Obama

Republicans

McCain

14

69

Democrats

Independents/ Other

Other Don’t know

67

17

29

49

8

9

3

14

2

14

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Table A-1. Presidential Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (PA 11th CD) If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? McCain/Palin

Obama/Biden

Other

DK

Male Female

44% 32%

43% 49%

3% 2%

10% 16%

18-34 35-54 55 and over

32% 37% 38%

58% 46% 46%

0% 4% 2%

11% 14% 14%

46% 43% 50%

3% 4% 1%

18% 15% 7%

49% 46% 43%

3% 3% 2%

18% 13% 11%

46% 75%

3% 0%

14% 0%

45% 48% 49%

2% 5% 3%

13% 9% 20%

33% 52% 55%

3% 3% 4%

17% 13% 8%

29% 51%

3% 3%

13% 14%

52% 44%

3% 3%

18% 12%

37% 49%

2% 3%

11% 15%

48% 33% 55% 49% 37%

2% 0% 2% 4% 4%

18% 18% 17% 10% 14%

14% 67% 29%

3% 2% 9%

14% 14% 14%

Gender*

Age

Education* High School or Less 33% Some College 38% College Degree 42% Household Income Less than $35,000 30% $35-75,000 39% Over $75,000 43% Race White 37% Non-white 25% Marital Status Married 40% Single, never married 38% Not currently married 27% Religious Affiliation* Protestant 47% Catholic 32% Other/unaffiliated 33% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist* Yes 55% No 32% Household Union Member* Yes 27% No 41% Military Veteran* Yes 50% No 34% County* Carbon 32% Columbia 49% Lackawanna 27% Luzerne 37% Monroe 45% Party Registration* Republican 69% Democrat 17% Independent/Other 49% * Significant differences (p<.05)

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Table A-2. Congressional Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (PA 11th CD) If the November general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican, and Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat, would you vote for Lou Barletta, Paul Kanjorski, or aren’t you sure how you would vote? Barletta

Kanjorski

Other

DK

Male Female

44% 37%

31% 38%

1% 0%

24% 25%

18-34 35-54 55 and over

32% 36% 43%

32% 31% 38%

0% 1% 0%

37% 32% 19%

38% 28% 39%

0% 1% 1%

26% 28% 18%

47% 35% 26%

0% 1% 1%

24% 24% 24%

35% 46%

1% 0%

24% 31%

30% 43% 49%

1% 0% 0%

26% 27% 18%

24% 43% 32%

0% 1% 1%

23% 22% 37%

27% 37%

0% 1%

24% 25%

42% 33%

1% 0%

24% 24%

29% 37%

2% 0%

16% 26%

29% 18% 49% 38% 24%

0% 2% 1% 0% 0%

31% 32% 21% 17% 35%

11% 52% 11%

0% 1% 0%

24% 24% 29%

Gender*

Age*

Education High School or Less 35% Some College 44% College Degree 43% Household Income* Less than $35,000 29% $35-75,000 40% Over $75,000 49% Race White 40% Non-white 23% Marital Status* Married 44% Single, never married 30% Not currently married 33% Religious Affiliation* Protestant 53% Catholic 34% Other/unaffiliated 30% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist Yes 49% No 38% Household Union Member* Yes 32% No 43% Military Veteran* Yes 52% No 37% County* Carbon 39% Columbia 48% Lackawanna 29% Luzerne 44% Monroe 41% Party Registration* Republican 65% Democrat 23% * Significant Independent/Other 60% * Significant differences (p<.05)

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Marginal Frequency Report REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you CURRENTLY REGISTERED to vote at your present address? 100%

Yes

RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else? Sep 08 58% 34% 6% 1% 1%

Oct 08 60% 34% 6% 1% 0%

Democrat Republican Independent Something else Don’t know

Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election in November, however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November presidential election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fifty-fifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election for president? Sep 08 88% 6% 3% 2%

Oct 08 89% 8% 2% 1%

Certain to vote Will probably vote Chances 50-50 Don’t think will vote

Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you are…in the 2008 presidential campaign? Sep 08 71% 25% 4% 0%

Oct 08 72% 23% 5% 1%

Very much interested Somewhat interested Not very interested Don’t know

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IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today...Is your opinion of __ favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven't heard enough about __ to have an opinion? (rotated) Strongly favorable SARAH PALIN Oct 08 Sep 08 LOU BARLETTA Oct 08 Sep 08 JOHN MCCAIN Oct 08 Sep 08 JOE BIDEN Oct 08 Sep 08 BARACK OBAMA Oct 08 Sep 08 PAUL KANJORSKI Oct 08 Sep 08

Somewhat favorable

Somewhat unfavorable

Strongly unfavorable

Undecided

Don’t know

24% 31%

17% 14%

10% 8%

28% 18%

13% 12%

8% 18%

26% 31%

18% 18%

9% 9%

17% 13%

16% 16%

15% 14%

21% 28%

23% 21%

11% 12%

28% 22%

15% 16%

2% 2%

31% 27%

21% 22%

11% 10%

15% 14%

12% 12%

10% 15%

30% 24%

19% 23%

10% 9%

22% 22%

15% 18%

3% 4%

16% 19%

21% 21%

13% 14%

24% 24%

18% 16%

9% 7%

Pres08. If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? Sep 08 43% 40% 3% 14%

Oct 08 46% 37% 3% 14%

Barack Obama/Joe Biden John McCain/Sarah Palin Other Don’t know

Cert. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill Pres08] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? Sep 08 448

Oct 08 481

82% 18%

82% 18%

Subsample size Certain Still making up mind

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Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or are you leaning toward some other candidate? Sep 08 84

Oct 08 89

31% 23% 3% 44%

38% 20% 1% 42%

Subsample size Barack Obama/Joe Biden John McCain/Sarah Palin Other Don’t know

IssPrim. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year? (rotated) Foreign policy, the Iraq war, the economy, healthcare, energy policy, taxes, moral and family values, or something else? Sep 08 47% 10% 12% 7% 6% 4% 8% 4% 3%

Oct 08 53% 9% 8% 8% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2%

The economy Healthcare The Iraq War Moral and family values Something else Taxes Energy policy Foreign policy Don’t know

CD08. If the November general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican, and Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat, would you vote for Lou Barletta, Paul Kanjorski, or aren’t you sure how you would vote? Sep 08 44% 35% 0% 21%

Oct 08 40% 35% 1% 24%

Lou Barletta Paul Kanjorski Other Don’t know

CertCD. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill CD08] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? Sep 08 429

Oct 08 438

86% 14%

85% 16%

Subsample size Certain Still making up mind

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LeanCD. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican, or Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat? Sep 08 115

Oct 08 145

32% 30% 38%

23% 32% 46%

Subsample size Paul Kanjorski Lou Barletta Don’t know

IssCD. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for U.S. House of Representatives this year? Sep 08 21% 19% 17% 5% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 23%

Oct 08 29% 16% 12% 5% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 6% 23%

Economy, personal finances, cost of living Government, politicians Immigration, illegal immigration Taxes Healthcare, insurance Elder issues, social security Values, morality, religion Gasoline/oil prices, energy Education, schools Iraq War Civil liberties Other Don’t know

DesRECD. Do you believe that Paul Kanjorski has done a good enough job in the U.S. House of Representatives to DESERVE RE-ELECTION, or do you believe it is TIME FOR A CHANGE? Sep 08 35% 54% 11%

Oct 08 35% 53% 12%

Deserves re-election Time for a change Don’t know

RatePres. How would you rate the way that George Bush is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an...as president? Sep 08 4% 16% 25% 54% 1%

Oct 08 2% 15% 25% 58% 0%

Excellent Good Fair Poor Don’t know

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UStrk. All in all, do you think things in the United States are generally headed in the RIGHT DIRECTION, or do you feel that things are off on the WRONG TRACK? Sep 08 19% 76% 5%

Oct 08 11% 83% 7%

Right direction Wrong track Don’t know

MIP_YF. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing YOU and YOUR FAMILY TODAY? Sep 08 54% 11% 10% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 6%

Oct 08 67% 10% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 5%

Economy, personal finances, cost of living Healthcare, insurance Gasoline/oil prices, energy Taxes Nothing Elder issues, social security Education, schools Terrorism, foreign policy Values, morality, religion Personal health issues Government, politicians Iraq War Housing, real estate Immigration, illegal immigration Other Don’t know

Gov. Do you think that the problems facing you and your family can be solved with the help of the government, or are these problems beyond what you think the government can do? Sep 08 71% 21% 8%

Oct 08 68% 24% 9%

With help of government Beyond what government can do Don’t know

FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that YOU and YOUR FAMILY are better off, worse off, or about the same financially as you were a year ago? Sep 08 11% 44% 44% 1%

Oct 08 8% 44% 49% 0%

Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know

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FinFut. Now looking AHEAD, do you think that A YEAR FROM NOW, YOU and YOUR FAMILY will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now? Sep 08 27% 15% 44% 15%

Oct 08 22% 19% 42% 18%

Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know

I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only. CNTY. What is the name of the county you live in? 40% 22% 19% 10% 9%

Luzerne Lackawanna Monroe Columbia Carbon

Resd. How many years have you lived at your current address? 25.6

Mean

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 2% 4% 10% 20% 27% 37%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older

EDUC. What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed? 6% 35% 16% 11% 18% 14%

Non high school graduate High school graduate or GED Some college Two-year or tech degree Four year college degree Post graduate degree

MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status, are you single, married, separated, divorced, or a widower? 11% 68% 1% 6% 13%

Single, Never Married Married Separated Divorced Widow or widower

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PRTY1. Regardless of how you are registered, in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? 17% 7% 10% 11% 11% 12% 30% 2%

Strong Republican Republican Lean Republican Pure Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Strong Democrat Do not know

LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 27% 72% 1%

Yes No Don’t know

VET. Are you a military veteran? 22% 78%

Yes No

Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? 2% 98%

Yes No

RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? 98% 2%

White Non-white

REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? 34% 53% 6% 8%

Protestant Catholic Some other religion Not affiliated with any religion

BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not? 19% 78% 3%

Yes No Don’t know

NumA. Including yourself, how many adults 18 years of age or OLDER CURRENTLY live in this household? 20% 58% 16% 7%

One Two Three Four or more

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WORK. Are you currently working FULL-time, PART-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? 41% 12% 1% 4% 2% 3% 37%

Full-time Part-time Going to school Keeping house Unemployed Disabled Retired

INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? 17% 12% 14% 22% 15% 15% 6%

Under $25,000 $25-$35,000 $35-50,000 $50-75,000 $75-100,000 Over $100,000 Don’t know

DONE. Sex of respondent: 57% 43%

Female Male

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