Opportunities For Decision Making

China’s bold reform policies of the 1980’s showed that energy and GDP growth can be decoupled 1,000

1980 = 100

800 GDP 600 400

Energy

200

19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04

-

Source:  NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various years; China Statistical Abstract 2005; growth estimates  extrapolated from mid­year production data for 2005.

However, energy usage has grown much faster than GDP since 2001, a reversal of 20 years of energy efficiency. (Estimate for 2005 shows continuation of trend.) 170 160

Actual Energy

2001 = 100

150 140 130

GDP

120 110

Energy Target

100 90 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source:  NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various years; China Statistical Abstract 2005; growth estimates  extrapolated from mid­year production data for 2005.

 

2

2.7 2.1

36 actual energy

32

energy target

28

1.8

24 GDP target

1.5

20

1.2 0.9

16 actual GDP

12

Year Source:  NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various years; China Statistical Abstract 2005; growth  estimates extrapolated from mid­year production data for 2005; targets announced by NDRC.

20 20

20 18

20 16

20 14

20 12

0 20 10

0 20 08

4

20 06

0.3

20 04

8

20 02

0.6

GDP (trillion 2000 RMB)

2.4

20 00

Energy Consumed (billion tce)

Another way to look at the data from previous graph.