Open Source Matt Asay Alfresco
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Don’t Be Afraid of Free Matt Asay Global Vice President, Business Development Alfresco
Free: Scary or not? Free is scary if… You insist on an outdated business model Your core is someone else’s complement You charge a premium for value others give away for free
Free is appealing if… Your goal is to encourage adoption and developer communities You’d like to undermine a highprice competitor
Scary if your model is license fees
Open source growth Whether measured in terms of lines of code added or new projects, open-source growth is phenomenal
4
Broad adoption of open source
63 34
OperatingSystems
85 54 53
ApplicationsSoftware
73 75 InfrastructureSoftware
58 90 15
None
27 2 0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentageof Respondents CurrentlyUsinginThis Budget Year PlantoUseinNext Budget Year CurrentlyUsingandPlantoUseinNext Budget Year
Source: Gartner 2008 Number of respondents = 274; Multiple responses allowed.
~100% to adopt open-source by 2010
Not just about infrastructure anymore…
Source: Forrester, 2009
What about mobile? Pigs start flying…
Why? Because it saves $...and more 87% 92% 86% 82% 84% 91% 82%
8
Better quality, more innovation at a lower price
“Open source software solutions will directly compete with closedsource products in all …markets.” 85% of enterprises currently use OSS (the other 15% are lying) 45% use OSS for mission-critical applications (Continues to grow)
Why? 65% say open source has sparked innovation inside their companies 67% … for lowered costs “Lower TCO and flexibility to launch and develop costprohibitive projects continue to be top reasons for using OSS”
81% … for better quality software Sources: Gartner (2008), CIO Insight (2006), IDC (2006)
“Open source produces better software.”
Open source increasingly handles mission-critical workloads
Open source is becoming the heart of mobile and enterprise computing
The open-source model lowers risk
Most IT projects fail Open source de-risks software acquisition: Try before you buy Stop your subscription if the vendor stops providing value Dramatically lower cost
Worst case: Project dies and you’re out $xx,xxx or $xxx,xxx, not $x,xxx,xxx
Project failure becomes less probabilistic and less painful You, not the vendor, are in control 11
Should Symbian worry? ~50% smartphone market share in 2009* 223M open-source handsets by 2014… …180M of those will be Symbian (Juniper Research, 2009)
Tens of thousands of applications, developers
Two options, one that Symbian made Soup-to-Nuts Apple offers a fully integrated experience
Just Soup. Or Nuts Horizontal play has worked well…for Microsoft Can Symbian be the benevolent mobile platform? Google Android gaining ground fast
Apple also winning over developers
Symbian can win, but must get developers
Symbian has a great base, but… Symbian already has 10,000+ applications But users need to be able to find them
Symbian already has thousands of developers But this developer base must be energized and focused
Symbian already has dominant market share But it is losing the PR war and new developer interest Mobile market now being shaped in the US, where Symbian has limited PR awareness)
Community won't do it alone ● <15 core developers do 85-100% of core development work ● 1000/10/1 (Users/ Bug Reporters/ Patch Submitters)
● Community is difficult to achieve: ● 72% of “open source developers” write code for others like themselves ● Most projects (55%) get no outside involvement at all ● BUT…even big community projects are written by vendors •Up to 95% of Linux development sponsored by companies
● Most community involvement is in complements to a project, not the core
Sources: Marten Mickos (MySQLUC 2005); O’Mahony & West, 2005; Mockus et al., 2005
The Shape of Community
Reality? Vendors make community work •
Time – Who has time to write (lots of) free software? – Answer: Those that are employed to do so
•
Interest – Who will take out the trash?
•
Aptitude – The higher up the stack you go, the fewer the developers
•
Familiarity with project – Poor documentation makes it hard to understand a project – Monolithic code base takes time to learn (Most won’t bother)
How ‘free’ can help Symbian Symbian needs new developers (apps) and licensees (reach) Low to no-cost for development (like Palm) Neutral promoter of applications to help developers get paid Centralize app discovery to help licensees see value in the platform
Symbian is a foundation (Mozilla, Eclipse), which gives it latitude commercial competitors don’t have Be like Mozilla – make plenty of money, but make it in partner/customer-friendly ways Carry the burden of core development, freeing the community ecosystem to create winning complements
How non-’free’ can help ecosystem Several winning business models
Open Core model (Open core, closed complements) IBM model (Open-source loss leaders) Red Hat model (Open software, closed services) Microsoft model (Closed core, open complement)
The more you invest in Symbian, the greater the returns Hard to monetize if you don’t contribute (Source of code instead of source code) “The Community” will never do work *for* you – only *with* you Spit and polish is always a commercial endeavor
email | [email protected] twitter | twitter.com/mjasay blog | cnet.com/openroad
Free: Scary or not? Free is scary if… You insist on an outdated business model Your core is someone else’s complement You charge a premium for value others give away for free
Free is appealing if… Your goal is to encourage adoption and developer communities You’d like to undermine a highprice competitor
Scary if your model is license fees
Open source growth Whether measured in terms of lines of code added or new projects, open-source growth is phenomenal
4
Broad adoption of open source
63 34
OperatingSystems
85 54 53
ApplicationsSoftware
73 75 InfrastructureSoftware
58 90 15
None
27 2 0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentageof Respondents CurrentlyUsinginThis Budget Year PlantoUseinNext Budget Year CurrentlyUsingandPlantoUseinNext Budget Year
Source: Gartner 2008 Number of respondents = 274; Multiple responses allowed.
~100% to adopt open-source by 2010
Not just about infrastructure anymore…
Source: Forrester, 2009
What about mobile? Pigs start flying…
Why? Because it saves $...and more 87% 92% 86% 82% 84% 91% 82%
8
Better quality, more innovation at a lower price
“Open source software solutions will directly compete with closedsource products in all …markets.” 85% of enterprises currently use OSS (the other 15% are lying) 45% use OSS for mission-critical applications (Continues to grow)
Why? 65% say open source has sparked innovation inside their companies 67% … for lowered costs “Lower TCO and flexibility to launch and develop costprohibitive projects continue to be top reasons for using OSS”
81% … for better quality software Sources: Gartner (2008), CIO Insight (2006), IDC (2006)
“Open source produces better software.”
Open source increasingly handles mission-critical workloads
Open source is becoming the heart of mobile and enterprise computing
The open-source model lowers risk
Most IT projects fail Open source de-risks software acquisition: Try before you buy Stop your subscription if the vendor stops providing value Dramatically lower cost
Worst case: Project dies and you’re out $xx,xxx or $xxx,xxx, not $x,xxx,xxx
Project failure becomes less probabilistic and less painful You, not the vendor, are in control 11
Should Symbian worry? ~50% smartphone market share in 2009* 223M open-source handsets by 2014… …180M of those will be Symbian (Juniper Research, 2009)
Tens of thousands of applications, developers
Two options, one that Symbian made Soup-to-Nuts Apple offers a fully integrated experience
Just Soup. Or Nuts Horizontal play has worked well…for Microsoft Can Symbian be the benevolent mobile platform? Google Android gaining ground fast
Apple also winning over developers
Symbian can win, but must get developers
Symbian has a great base, but… Symbian already has 10,000+ applications But users need to be able to find them
Symbian already has thousands of developers But this developer base must be energized and focused
Symbian already has dominant market share But it is losing the PR war and new developer interest Mobile market now being shaped in the US, where Symbian has limited PR awareness)
Community won't do it alone ● <15 core developers do 85-100% of core development work ● 1000/10/1 (Users/ Bug Reporters/ Patch Submitters)
● Community is difficult to achieve: ● 72% of “open source developers” write code for others like themselves ● Most projects (55%) get no outside involvement at all ● BUT…even big community projects are written by vendors •Up to 95% of Linux development sponsored by companies
● Most community involvement is in complements to a project, not the core
Sources: Marten Mickos (MySQLUC 2005); O’Mahony & West, 2005; Mockus et al., 2005
The Shape of Community
Reality? Vendors make community work •
Time – Who has time to write (lots of) free software? – Answer: Those that are employed to do so
•
Interest – Who will take out the trash?
•
Aptitude – The higher up the stack you go, the fewer the developers
•
Familiarity with project – Poor documentation makes it hard to understand a project – Monolithic code base takes time to learn (Most won’t bother)
How ‘free’ can help Symbian Symbian needs new developers (apps) and licensees (reach) Low to no-cost for development (like Palm) Neutral promoter of applications to help developers get paid Centralize app discovery to help licensees see value in the platform
Symbian is a foundation (Mozilla, Eclipse), which gives it latitude commercial competitors don’t have Be like Mozilla – make plenty of money, but make it in partner/customer-friendly ways Carry the burden of core development, freeing the community ecosystem to create winning complements
How non-’free’ can help ecosystem Several winning business models
Open Core model (Open core, closed complements) IBM model (Open-source loss leaders) Red Hat model (Open software, closed services) Microsoft model (Closed core, open complement)
The more you invest in Symbian, the greater the returns Hard to monetize if you don’t contribute (Source of code instead of source code) “The Community” will never do work *for* you – only *with* you Spit and polish is always a commercial endeavor
email | [email protected] twitter | twitter.com/mjasay blog | cnet.com/openroad
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