Olam Brokers' Report
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SINGAPORE
Olam International Ltd
5 December 2008
Gaining from distress
OLAM SP
Outperform
Stock price as of 03 Dec 08 12-month target Upside/downside Valuation
S$ S$ % S$
0.88 1.65 +87.5 1.65
- PER
Event Olam plans to repurchase up to US$150m worth of its convertible bonds
(maturing July 2013). US$300m of those CBs was issued in July 2008 (coupon 1%, yield-to-maturity of 4.5%, 6.2% dilution assuming full conversion).
Impact
GICS sector Market cap 30-day avg turnover Market cap Number shares on issue
food & drug retailing S$m 1,508 S$m 13.6 US$m 989 m 1,713
Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Total revenue EBIT EBIT Growth Reported profit Adjusted profit
m m % m m
8,152 334 45.1 168 168
8,731 444 33.0 187 189
9,626 11,272 536 660 20.6 23.2 233 326 235 328
EPS rep EPS rep growth EPS adj EPS adj growth PE rep PE adj
¢ % ¢ % x x
10.5 52.2 10.5 53.0 8.4 8.4
10.9 4.4 11.1 4.9 8.0 8.0
13.6 24.4 13.7 24.1 6.5 6.4
19.0 40.0 19.2 39.7 4.6 4.6
Total DPS Total div yield
¢ %
2.5 2.8
2.8 3.1
3.4 3.9
4.8 5.4
ROA ROE EV/EBITDA Net debt/equity Price/book
% % x % x
7.1 31.3 11.0 415.0 2.2
7.2 26.6 8.1 346.9 1.9
8.4 26.7 6.8 286.9 1.6
9.3 29.6 5.6 243.3 1.2
Depending on the size of the buyback, the company’s net gearing level could
be lowered slightly on gains from the cancelled CBs. In any case, falling prices (prices for Olam’s weighted basket of products have declined by 27% QoQ), imply a reduction in working capital needs for the next 1–2 quarters. Thus, nominal headline gearing levels could fall from the 2.7x the company posted in September 2008. Its net gearing adjusted for hedged/pre-sold inventory receivables backed by letters of credit was 0.7x. The CBs were quoted at 45.6% of face value as of 3 December, with a yield-
to-put (July 2011) of about 38.4%. The yield-to-maturity of the CB (July 2013) is 23.2%. The tender offer opened at 9am on 4 December and will close at noon on 5 December. The company will likely draw down existing banking facilities (49% in unused
lines as of the end of September 2008) to finance the repurchase of these CBs. Similar moves elsewhere: on 5 November, supply-chain manager Noble
Group (NOBL SP, S$0.94, OP, TP: S$1.35) repurchased US$20m worth of its senior notes due November 2015. Similarly, Kuok Khoon Hong, the CEO of edible oils processor/merchandiser Wilmar (WIL SP, S$2.60, OP, TP: S$3.00), personally bought, on 17 October, US$1.6m of Wilmar's convertible bonds due in 2012 (at 65.25%).
Earnings revision OLAM SP rel All Singapore performance, & rec history
We expect net income gains depending on the size of the CB buyback.
Price catalyst 12-month price target: S$1.65 based on a PER methodology. Catalyst: Volume growth of more than 16% from new products/segments.
Action and recommendation We expect volume growth of 16% for Olam in FY6/09, helped by share gains
and expansion into new product areas. Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, December 2008 (all figures in SGD unless noted)
Olam’s ability to scale up without relying on profits driven by commodity prices
remains a better risk/reward proposition than commodity growers.
Analyst Patrick Yau, CFA 65 6231 2835
[email protected]
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/research/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Analysis Olam will repurchase up to US$150m worth of its convertible bonds (maturing July 2013).
US$300m of those CBs was issued in July 2008 (coupon 1%, yield-to-maturity of 4.5%, 6.2% dilution assuming full conversion). Depending on the size of the buyback, the company’s net gearing level could be lowered slightly
on gains from equity on the cancelled CBs. In any case, falling prices (prices for Olam’s weighted basket of products have declined by 27% QoQ), imply a reduction in working capital needs for the next 1–2 quarters. Thus, nominal headline gearing levels could fall from the 2.7x the company posted in September 2008. Its net gearing adjusted for hedged/pre-sold inventory receivables backed by letters of credit was 0.7x. The CBs were quoted at 45.6% of face value as of 3 December, with a yield-to-put (July 2011) of
about 38.4%. The yield-to-maturity of the CB (July 2013) is 23.2%. The tender offer opened at 9am on 4 December and will close at noon on 5 December. The company will likely draw down existing banking facilities (49% in unused lines as of the end of
September 2008) to finance the repurchase of these CBs. Olam has previously reiterated that its panel of bankers is comfortable with the borrowings
provided to the company ahead of what is now the key season for sourcing the commodities that it deals with. In some sense, the decision to push ahead with this CB tender offer also implies that Olam continues to receive strong support from its bankers. We have previously stressed that, despite its high headline net gearing figures, the company’s
debt is mostly funding working capital needs rather than fixed investments or other long-duration assets. As a result, we do not anticipate the approach of a 'Minsky' moment, nor do we expect Olam to pay off debt by running non-current assets continuously at high utilisation rates in hopes of achieving positive cash generation. Instead, it operates on approximately 100-day+ cash cycles and continuously repays debt as inventories are sold to customers and receivables are collected. Funding for working capital: Olam's net debt of S$2.7bn (with 62% as short-term loans) at the end of
FY6/08 mainly funded working capital needs as 90% of its assets (about S$6.0bn) are workingcapital related. Non-current assets amounted to S$0.6bn, or 10% of total assets. As noted, Olam continuously repays debt as inventories are sold to customers and receivables are collected (twothirds of its receivables are supported by letters of credit). Olam's working capital needs in FY6/08 were S$1.8bn in inventory and S$0.7bn in receivables. Only S$0.5bn is funded by Olam's payables/creditors; it thus needs debt of about S$2bn to fund working capital needs. On our existing projection for 16% growth in volumes for this year, there is room for the level of working capital debt to be lower than the S$2–2.1bn (similar to levels for FY6/08) that we expect for this year. Similar moves elsewhere – on 5 November, supply-chain manager Noble Group (NOBL SP,
S$0.94, OP, TP: S$1.35) repurchased US$20m of its senior notes due November 2015. Similarly, on 17 October, Kuok Khoon Hong, the CEO of edible oils processor/merchandiser Wilmar (WIL SP, S$2.60, OP, TP: S$3.00) personally bought US$1.6m of Wilmar's convertible bonds due in 2012 (at 65.25%). Olam’s sponsor family, the Kelwaram Group, purchased 2m shares on 16 October (stake now
26.8%); CEO Sunny Verghese added 1m shares 10 October (stake now 5.2%). We still expect Olam to increase earnings at an average of 14% in the next two years as it boosts
volumes across its portfolio by about 16% YoY each year. Is there still room for Olam to expand market share? Likely yes because, outside of cashews and cocoa, its global volume share is much less than 10%
5 December 2008
2
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Fig 1
Olam International Ltd
Market share of agri-commodities traded volume
Olam market share <5%
Olam market share between 5-10%
Olam market share >10%
Cotton Coffee
Cocoa Cashews
Rice Timber Dairy Sugar Spice Almonds Peanuts Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Fig 2
Revenue by segment (S$m)
Fig 3 FY6/09E: Revenue growth by segment (YoY%)
(S$m)
(YoY %)
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000
25 1,640
20
1,727
15
2,474
2,027
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
10 3,189
3,348
1,169
1,227
2008
2009F
5 0 -5 -10
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery & beverage ingredients
Food staples and packaged foods
Fibre and wood products
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery Food staples Fibre and & beverage and packaged wood products ingredients foods
Total
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Fig 4 We expect volumes to grow for all divisions other than fibre and wood products in FY6/09
Fig 5 Expect overall FY6/09 volumes to grow by 16% to 5.7m tonnes
(YoY %)
(mt)
60
7.0
50
6.0
40
5.0
30 20
4.0
10
3.0
0
2.0
-10
1.0
-20
0.0
-30 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009F
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery & beverage ingredients
Food staples and packaged foods
Fibre and wood products
Source:Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Total
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery Food staples Fibre and & beverage and packaged wood products ingredients foods 2008
2009F
* Fibre & wood products in cubic metres Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Food demand is steady. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data for the past 30 years
indicate that, on average, there is fairly stable consumption in food items such as coffee in volume terms. Global consumption of coffee has grown, on average, by 2% a year for the past 30 years. Even during periods of weak economic conditions, the contraction in consumption volumes, if any, seems small.
5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Fig 6
Olam International Ltd
World consumption : Coffee (volume)
(% chg) 8 6 4 2 0 -2
20 08
20 06
20 04
20 02
20 00
19 98
19 96
19 94
19 92
19 90
19 88
19 86
19 84
19 82
19 80
19 78
-4
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Diversity in customers, with each transaction small. Each transaction is small, with the
average invoice value about US$250,000. Olam serves more than 6,500 customers, with the top five in each product segment accounting for less than 10% of its revenues. For FY6/08, customers in the Americas accounted for 13% of sales, the smallest share of its revenues compared with revenues from other continents.
Fig 7 Well-diversified sales: markets — Sales turnover FY6/07
Fig 8 Well-diversified sales: markets — Sales turnover FY6/08
Africa 20.9%
Africa 22.0% Asia & Middle East 39.1%
Asia & Middle East 44.3% Americas 12.8%
Americas 13.4%
Europe 22.0%
Source:Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Europe 25.5%
Source:Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Decomposing its interest payments. Olam paid S$201m in interest expenses (for this exercise,
we assume this all went to service working capital-related loans) to fund the 5m tons of produce and commodities that it sourced last year, ie, about S$40 of interest charges per average ton of cargo. For example, this is about 1.3% of the value of a ton of cocoa, which is now about S$3,000/ton. Ceteris paribus, if interest rates double, the interest costs may be 2.6% of the value of a ton of cocoa, still a small cost component for managing this amount of cargo. (Olam's revenue per ton was about S$1,600 last year because not all its volumes were cocoa). Historically, a supply chain manager such as Olam has typically been able to pass on increases in the cost of carry to customers or the farmers.
5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Its ability to scale earnings without relying on commodity prices to drive profits is a better
risk/reward proposition than for other soft-commodity growers. Our target price of S$1.65 implies a FY6/09 PER of 15x. Prices are not a key driver; volume is more important. Commodity prices are not key to Olam’s earnings growth because it earns a supply-chain fee for the produce that it deals with. Overall volume growth is much more important – we expect Olam to record volume growth of 16% in FY6/09. There is still room for volume growth via market share additions as, outside of cocoa and cashews, Olam’s global market share is below 10% for most of the commodity groups it sources.
Fig 9 OLAM: PER band chart 20 15 55x 46x 37x
8 7 6 5 4
27x 18x
3 2
9x
1 0.8 0.6 06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Fig 10 OLAM: P/BV band chart 20 15 14x 12x 10x 7x
8 7 6 5 4
5x
3 3x
2
1 0.8 0.6 06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Olam International Ltd (OLAM SP, Outperform, Target price: S$1.65) Interim Results
2H/08A
1H/09E
2H/09E
1H/10E
Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
4,815 935 3,881 216 19 0 0 197 -97 0 0 17 3 120 9 129 -0
3,667 880 2,787 205 28 1 0 176 -121 5 0 0 0 60 -7 53 0
5,064 1,084 3,980 297 28 1 0 269 -121 5 0 0 0 153 -18 134 0
4,043 849 3,194 127 28 1 0 98 -146 10 0 0 0 -38 4 -33 0
Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings
m m
129 129
53 54
135 136
EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth yoy (adj)
¢ ¢ %
8.1 8.1 61.6
3.1 3.1 31.5
EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Earnings Split Revenue Growth EBIT Growth
% % % % %
4.5 4.1 77.0 55.2 61.2
Profit and Loss Ratios
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
8,152 1,633 6,519 368 34 0 0 334 -201 -0 0 21 11 165 3 168 0
8,731 1,964 6,766 502 56 2 0 444 -241 10 0 0 1 213 -26 187 0
9,626 2,156 7,470 594 56 2 0 536 -291 20 0 0 1 265 -32 233 0
11,272 2,548 8,725 719 57 2 0 660 -312 22 0 0 1 371 -45 326 0
-33 -32
Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings
m m
168 168
187 189
233 235
326 328
7.9 7.9 -2.9
-1.9 -1.9 nmf
EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth (adj) PE (rep) PE (adj)
¢ ¢ % x x
10.5 10.5 53.0 8.4 8.4
10.9 11.1 4.9 8.0 8.0
13.6 13.7 24.1 6.5 6.4
19.0 19.2 39.7 4.6 4.6
5.6 4.8 28.4 9.9 27.9
5.9 5.3 71.6 5.2 36.5
3.1 2.4 -13.8 10.3 -44.5
Total DPS Total Div Yield Weighted Average Shares Period End Shares
¢ % m m
2.5 2.8 1,600 1,585
2.8 3.1 1,713 1,713
3.4 3.9 1,713 1,713
4.8 5.4 1,713 1,713
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EBIT Growth Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Profit Margin Payout Ratio EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
% % % % % % % % x x
48.8 48.8 45.1 20.0 4.5 4.1 2.1 23.7 11.0 12.1
7.1 36.5 33.0 22.5 5.7 5.1 2.1 25.0 8.1 9.2
10.3 18.3 20.6 22.4 6.2 5.6 2.4 25.0 6.8 7.5
17.1 21.1 23.2 22.6 6.4 5.9 2.9 25.0 5.6 6.1
Balance Sheet Ratios ROE ROA ROIC Net Debt/Equity Interest Cover Price/Book Book Value per Share
% % % % x x
31.3 7.1 16.1 415.0 1.7 2.2 0.4
26.6 7.2 11.9 346.9 1.8 1.9 0.5
26.7 8.4 13.4 286.9 1.8 1.6 0.6
29.6 9.3 15.4 243.3 2.1 1.2 0.7
Profit & Loss
Cashflow Analysis EBITDA Tax Paid Chgs in Working Cap Net Interest Paid Other Operating Cashflow Acquisitions Capex Asset Sales Other Investing Cashflow Dividend (Ordinary) Equity Raised Debt Movements Other Financing Cashflow
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
367 -12 -838 -183 0 -666 -218 -72 18 0 -271 -54 307 824 0 1,077
447 3 -113 -241 77 172 -151 -50 0 0 -201 -43 0 461 0 418
538 -32 -529 -312 228 -107 0 -65 0 0 -65 -59 0 300 0 241
663 -32 -529 -312 103 -107 0 -65 0 0 -65 -59 0 300 0 241
Net Chg in Cash/Debt
m
102
389
70
70
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
339 724 1,790 27 403 130 2,803 6,217 520 1,860 1,129 25 2,046 5,579 638 0 0 638 6,217
727 782 1,825 168 398 130 2,040 6,069 478 1,910 1,540 53 1,303 5,284 785 0 0 785 6,069
859 863 2,013 148 402 129 2,234 6,646 527 2,110 1,540 59 1,438 5,674 973 0 0 973 6,646
927 1,011 2,358 126 409 129 2,606 7,566 618 2,410 1,540 72 1,684 6,324 1,242 0 0 1,242 7,566
Balance Sheet Cash Receivables Inventories Investments Fixed Assets Intangibles Other Assets Total Assets Payables Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Provisions Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Funds Minority Interests Other Total S/H Equity Total Liab & S/H Funds
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
All figures in SGD unless noted. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions
Volatility index definition*
Financial definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements.
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests
Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below benchmark return
Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative.
Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year.
EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares
Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year.
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2008 Outperform Neutral Underperform
AU/NZ 43.17% 41.37% 15.47%
Asia 61.57% 16.43% 22.00%
RSA 63.08% 30.77% 6.15%
USA 53.60% 37.60% 8.80%
CA 71.54% 24.61% 3.85%
EUR 43.00% 48.00% 9.00%
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5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
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Media (852) 2823 3566
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(6221) 515 7343 (813) 3512 6050 (822) 3705 8644 (8862) 2734 7521
Banks and Non-Bank Financials Ismael Pili (Asia, Japan) Nick Lord (Asia, China, Hong Kong) Sarah Wu (China) Seshadri Sen (India) Ferry Wong (Indonesia) Chin Seng Tay (Malaysia, S’pore) Nadine Javellana (Philippines) Matthew Smith (Taiwan) Alastair Macdonald (Thailand)
(65) 6231 2840 (852) 2823 4774 (8621) 2412 9035 (9122) 6653 3053 (6221) 515 7335 (65) 6231 2837 (632) 857 0890 (8862) 2734 7514 (662) 694 7741
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(8862) 2734 7512 (9122) 6653 3040 (822) 3705 8670 (603) 2059 8993
Conglomerates Gary Pinge (Asia) Leah Jiang (China) Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore)
(852) 2823 3557 (8621) 2412 9020 (6221) 515 7343 (65) 6231 2830
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(852) 3901 1111 (852) 2823 3568 (8621) 2412 9033 (9122) 6653 3042 (6221) 515 7339 (813) 3512 7867 (813) 3512 7392 (822) 3705 8677 (822) 3705 8678 (603) 2059 8982 (632) 857 0899 (8862) 2734 7521
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(852) 2823 4691 (8862) 2734 7512 (9122) 6653 3040 (822) 3705 8670 (603) 2059 8982 (603) 2059 8993 (65) 6231 2830
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(852) 2823 4731 (852) 2823 3573 (852) 2823 3581 (9122) 6653 3042 (813) 3512 7885 (813) 3512 7433 (65) 6231 2838 (65) 6231 2839 (8862) 2734 7522 (662) 694 7727
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(852) 2823 3587 (852) 2823 3562 (9122) 6653 3054 (6221) 515 7338 (813) 3512 7886 (822) 3705 8670 (8862) 2734 7512
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(852) 2823 3592 (9122) 6653 3046 (813) 3512 7877 (813) 3512 7880 (813) 3512 7854 (813) 3512 5984 (822) 3705 8641 (822) 3705 8659 (65) 6231 2835 (8862) 2734 7526 (8862) 2734 7516 (8862) 2734 7517 (8862) 2734 7523
Telecoms (9122) 6653 3166 (813) 3512 7432 (813) 3512 7475 (822) 2095 7222 (603) 2059 8993 (662) 694 7753
Insurance Mark Kellock (Asia) Seshadri Sen (Asia, India) Makarim Salman (Japan)
Transport & Infrastructure
Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) Shubham Majumder (India) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines)
(852) 2823 3567 (9122) 6653 3053 (813) 3512 7421
Tim Smart (Asia, China) Bin Liu (China) Shubham Majumder (India) Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) Nathan Ramler (Japan) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Ramakrishna Maruvada (Philippines, Singapore, Thailand)
(852) 2823 3565 (852) 2249 3634 (9122) 6653 3049 (6221) 515 7343 (813) 3512 7875 (603) 2059 8989 (65) 6231 2842
Gary Pinge (Asia) Anderson Chow (Asia, China) Jonathan Windham (Asia, China) Wei Sim (China, Hong Kong) Eunsook Kwak (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)
(852) 2823 3557 (852) 2823 4773 (852) 2823 5417 (852) 2823 3598 (822) 3705 8644 (603) 2059 8993
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(852) 2823 4075 (6221) 515 7338 (813) 3512 7296 (603) 2059 8989 (632) 857 0899
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(4420) 7065 2014 (4420) 7065 2013 (4420) 7065 5938 (4420) 7065 2000 (8621) 2412 9008 (8621) 2412 9005 (9122) 6653 3054
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(852) 2823 4076
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(852) 2823 4636 (65) 6231 2841 (612) 8232 3935 (852) 2823 3570 (813) 3512 7855
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(852) 2823 3582 (852) 2823 4735 (612) 8232 6539 (612) 8232 8388 (813) 3512 7560
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(852) 2823 3585 (852) 2823 4073 (852) 2823 3564 (852) 2823 3576 (8621) 2412 9002 (9122) 6653 3053 (6221) 515 7335 (813) 3512 7878 (813) 3512 7850 (822) 3705 8643 (603) 2059 8989 (603) 2059 8982 (632) 857 0899 (65) 6231 2838 (8862) 2734 7516 (662) 694 7741
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Sales Regional Heads of Sales Peter Slater (Boston) Michelle Paisley (China, Hong Kong) Ulrike Pollak-Tsutsumi (Frankfurt) Thomas Renz (Geneva) Ajay Bhatia (India) Stuart Smythe (India) Chris Gray (Indonesia) Gino C Rojas (Philippines) Greg Norton-Kidd (New York) Luke Sullivan (New York)
(1 617) 217 2103 (852) 2823 3516 (49) 69 7593 8747 (41) 22 818 7712 (9122) 6653 3200 (9122) 6653 3200 (6221) 515 7304 (632) 857 0761 (1 212) 231 2527 (1 212) 231 2507
Regional Heads of Sales cont’d
Sales Trading cont’d
Scot Mackie (New York) Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) Giles Heyring (Singapore, Malaysia) Mark Duncan (Korea, Taiwan) Angus Kent (Thailand) Michael Newman (Tokyo) Charles Nelson (UK/Europe) Rob Fabbro (UK/Europe)
Brendan Rake (India) Edward Robinson (London) Robert Risman (New York) Isaac Huang (Taiwan) Jon Omori (Tokyo)
(1 212) 231 2848 (1 415) 835 1235 (65) 6231 2888 (8862) 2734 7510 (662) 694 7601 (813) 3512 7920 (44) 20 7065 2032 (44) 20 7065 2031
Sales Trading Adam Zaki (Asia) Mona Lee (Hong Kong) Stuart Goddard (Europe)
December 08
(852) 2823 3528 (852) 2823 3519 (44) 20 7065 2033
(9122) 6653 3204 (44) 20 7065 5883 (1 212) 231 2555 (8862) 2734 7582 (813) 3512 7838
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(852) 2823 4628 (852) 2823 4688 (852) 2249 3380 (852) 2823 4637 (852) 2823 4736 (852) 2249 3225
Olam International Ltd
5 December 2008
Gaining from distress
OLAM SP
Outperform
Stock price as of 03 Dec 08 12-month target Upside/downside Valuation
S$ S$ % S$
0.88 1.65 +87.5 1.65
- PER
Event Olam plans to repurchase up to US$150m worth of its convertible bonds
(maturing July 2013). US$300m of those CBs was issued in July 2008 (coupon 1%, yield-to-maturity of 4.5%, 6.2% dilution assuming full conversion).
Impact
GICS sector Market cap 30-day avg turnover Market cap Number shares on issue
food & drug retailing S$m 1,508 S$m 13.6 US$m 989 m 1,713
Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Total revenue EBIT EBIT Growth Reported profit Adjusted profit
m m % m m
8,152 334 45.1 168 168
8,731 444 33.0 187 189
9,626 11,272 536 660 20.6 23.2 233 326 235 328
EPS rep EPS rep growth EPS adj EPS adj growth PE rep PE adj
¢ % ¢ % x x
10.5 52.2 10.5 53.0 8.4 8.4
10.9 4.4 11.1 4.9 8.0 8.0
13.6 24.4 13.7 24.1 6.5 6.4
19.0 40.0 19.2 39.7 4.6 4.6
Total DPS Total div yield
¢ %
2.5 2.8
2.8 3.1
3.4 3.9
4.8 5.4
ROA ROE EV/EBITDA Net debt/equity Price/book
% % x % x
7.1 31.3 11.0 415.0 2.2
7.2 26.6 8.1 346.9 1.9
8.4 26.7 6.8 286.9 1.6
9.3 29.6 5.6 243.3 1.2
Depending on the size of the buyback, the company’s net gearing level could
be lowered slightly on gains from the cancelled CBs. In any case, falling prices (prices for Olam’s weighted basket of products have declined by 27% QoQ), imply a reduction in working capital needs for the next 1–2 quarters. Thus, nominal headline gearing levels could fall from the 2.7x the company posted in September 2008. Its net gearing adjusted for hedged/pre-sold inventory receivables backed by letters of credit was 0.7x. The CBs were quoted at 45.6% of face value as of 3 December, with a yield-
to-put (July 2011) of about 38.4%. The yield-to-maturity of the CB (July 2013) is 23.2%. The tender offer opened at 9am on 4 December and will close at noon on 5 December. The company will likely draw down existing banking facilities (49% in unused
lines as of the end of September 2008) to finance the repurchase of these CBs. Similar moves elsewhere: on 5 November, supply-chain manager Noble
Group (NOBL SP, S$0.94, OP, TP: S$1.35) repurchased US$20m worth of its senior notes due November 2015. Similarly, Kuok Khoon Hong, the CEO of edible oils processor/merchandiser Wilmar (WIL SP, S$2.60, OP, TP: S$3.00), personally bought, on 17 October, US$1.6m of Wilmar's convertible bonds due in 2012 (at 65.25%).
Earnings revision OLAM SP rel All Singapore performance, & rec history
We expect net income gains depending on the size of the CB buyback.
Price catalyst 12-month price target: S$1.65 based on a PER methodology. Catalyst: Volume growth of more than 16% from new products/segments.
Action and recommendation We expect volume growth of 16% for Olam in FY6/09, helped by share gains
and expansion into new product areas. Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, December 2008 (all figures in SGD unless noted)
Olam’s ability to scale up without relying on profits driven by commodity prices
remains a better risk/reward proposition than commodity growers.
Analyst Patrick Yau, CFA 65 6231 2835
[email protected]
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/research/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Analysis Olam will repurchase up to US$150m worth of its convertible bonds (maturing July 2013).
US$300m of those CBs was issued in July 2008 (coupon 1%, yield-to-maturity of 4.5%, 6.2% dilution assuming full conversion). Depending on the size of the buyback, the company’s net gearing level could be lowered slightly
on gains from equity on the cancelled CBs. In any case, falling prices (prices for Olam’s weighted basket of products have declined by 27% QoQ), imply a reduction in working capital needs for the next 1–2 quarters. Thus, nominal headline gearing levels could fall from the 2.7x the company posted in September 2008. Its net gearing adjusted for hedged/pre-sold inventory receivables backed by letters of credit was 0.7x. The CBs were quoted at 45.6% of face value as of 3 December, with a yield-to-put (July 2011) of
about 38.4%. The yield-to-maturity of the CB (July 2013) is 23.2%. The tender offer opened at 9am on 4 December and will close at noon on 5 December. The company will likely draw down existing banking facilities (49% in unused lines as of the end of
September 2008) to finance the repurchase of these CBs. Olam has previously reiterated that its panel of bankers is comfortable with the borrowings
provided to the company ahead of what is now the key season for sourcing the commodities that it deals with. In some sense, the decision to push ahead with this CB tender offer also implies that Olam continues to receive strong support from its bankers. We have previously stressed that, despite its high headline net gearing figures, the company’s
debt is mostly funding working capital needs rather than fixed investments or other long-duration assets. As a result, we do not anticipate the approach of a 'Minsky' moment, nor do we expect Olam to pay off debt by running non-current assets continuously at high utilisation rates in hopes of achieving positive cash generation. Instead, it operates on approximately 100-day+ cash cycles and continuously repays debt as inventories are sold to customers and receivables are collected. Funding for working capital: Olam's net debt of S$2.7bn (with 62% as short-term loans) at the end of
FY6/08 mainly funded working capital needs as 90% of its assets (about S$6.0bn) are workingcapital related. Non-current assets amounted to S$0.6bn, or 10% of total assets. As noted, Olam continuously repays debt as inventories are sold to customers and receivables are collected (twothirds of its receivables are supported by letters of credit). Olam's working capital needs in FY6/08 were S$1.8bn in inventory and S$0.7bn in receivables. Only S$0.5bn is funded by Olam's payables/creditors; it thus needs debt of about S$2bn to fund working capital needs. On our existing projection for 16% growth in volumes for this year, there is room for the level of working capital debt to be lower than the S$2–2.1bn (similar to levels for FY6/08) that we expect for this year. Similar moves elsewhere – on 5 November, supply-chain manager Noble Group (NOBL SP,
S$0.94, OP, TP: S$1.35) repurchased US$20m of its senior notes due November 2015. Similarly, on 17 October, Kuok Khoon Hong, the CEO of edible oils processor/merchandiser Wilmar (WIL SP, S$2.60, OP, TP: S$3.00) personally bought US$1.6m of Wilmar's convertible bonds due in 2012 (at 65.25%). Olam’s sponsor family, the Kelwaram Group, purchased 2m shares on 16 October (stake now
26.8%); CEO Sunny Verghese added 1m shares 10 October (stake now 5.2%). We still expect Olam to increase earnings at an average of 14% in the next two years as it boosts
volumes across its portfolio by about 16% YoY each year. Is there still room for Olam to expand market share? Likely yes because, outside of cashews and cocoa, its global volume share is much less than 10%
5 December 2008
2
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Fig 1
Olam International Ltd
Market share of agri-commodities traded volume
Olam market share <5%
Olam market share between 5-10%
Olam market share >10%
Cotton Coffee
Cocoa Cashews
Rice Timber Dairy Sugar Spice Almonds Peanuts Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Fig 2
Revenue by segment (S$m)
Fig 3 FY6/09E: Revenue growth by segment (YoY%)
(S$m)
(YoY %)
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000
25 1,640
20
1,727
15
2,474
2,027
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
10 3,189
3,348
1,169
1,227
2008
2009F
5 0 -5 -10
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery & beverage ingredients
Food staples and packaged foods
Fibre and wood products
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery Food staples Fibre and & beverage and packaged wood products ingredients foods
Total
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Fig 4 We expect volumes to grow for all divisions other than fibre and wood products in FY6/09
Fig 5 Expect overall FY6/09 volumes to grow by 16% to 5.7m tonnes
(YoY %)
(mt)
60
7.0
50
6.0
40
5.0
30 20
4.0
10
3.0
0
2.0
-10
1.0
-20
0.0
-30 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009F
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery & beverage ingredients
Food staples and packaged foods
Fibre and wood products
Source:Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Total
Edible Nuts, spices and pulses
Confectionery Food staples Fibre and & beverage and packaged wood products ingredients foods 2008
2009F
* Fibre & wood products in cubic metres Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Food demand is steady. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data for the past 30 years
indicate that, on average, there is fairly stable consumption in food items such as coffee in volume terms. Global consumption of coffee has grown, on average, by 2% a year for the past 30 years. Even during periods of weak economic conditions, the contraction in consumption volumes, if any, seems small.
5 December 2008
3
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Fig 6
Olam International Ltd
World consumption : Coffee (volume)
(% chg) 8 6 4 2 0 -2
20 08
20 06
20 04
20 02
20 00
19 98
19 96
19 94
19 92
19 90
19 88
19 86
19 84
19 82
19 80
19 78
-4
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Diversity in customers, with each transaction small. Each transaction is small, with the
average invoice value about US$250,000. Olam serves more than 6,500 customers, with the top five in each product segment accounting for less than 10% of its revenues. For FY6/08, customers in the Americas accounted for 13% of sales, the smallest share of its revenues compared with revenues from other continents.
Fig 7 Well-diversified sales: markets — Sales turnover FY6/07
Fig 8 Well-diversified sales: markets — Sales turnover FY6/08
Africa 20.9%
Africa 22.0% Asia & Middle East 39.1%
Asia & Middle East 44.3% Americas 12.8%
Americas 13.4%
Europe 22.0%
Source:Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Europe 25.5%
Source:Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Decomposing its interest payments. Olam paid S$201m in interest expenses (for this exercise,
we assume this all went to service working capital-related loans) to fund the 5m tons of produce and commodities that it sourced last year, ie, about S$40 of interest charges per average ton of cargo. For example, this is about 1.3% of the value of a ton of cocoa, which is now about S$3,000/ton. Ceteris paribus, if interest rates double, the interest costs may be 2.6% of the value of a ton of cocoa, still a small cost component for managing this amount of cargo. (Olam's revenue per ton was about S$1,600 last year because not all its volumes were cocoa). Historically, a supply chain manager such as Olam has typically been able to pass on increases in the cost of carry to customers or the farmers.
5 December 2008
4
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Its ability to scale earnings without relying on commodity prices to drive profits is a better
risk/reward proposition than for other soft-commodity growers. Our target price of S$1.65 implies a FY6/09 PER of 15x. Prices are not a key driver; volume is more important. Commodity prices are not key to Olam’s earnings growth because it earns a supply-chain fee for the produce that it deals with. Overall volume growth is much more important – we expect Olam to record volume growth of 16% in FY6/09. There is still room for volume growth via market share additions as, outside of cocoa and cashews, Olam’s global market share is below 10% for most of the commodity groups it sources.
Fig 9 OLAM: PER band chart 20 15 55x 46x 37x
8 7 6 5 4
27x 18x
3 2
9x
1 0.8 0.6 06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
Fig 10 OLAM: P/BV band chart 20 15 14x 12x 10x 7x
8 7 6 5 4
5x
3 3x
2
1 0.8 0.6 06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
5 December 2008
5
Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Olam International Ltd (OLAM SP, Outperform, Target price: S$1.65) Interim Results
2H/08A
1H/09E
2H/09E
1H/10E
Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
4,815 935 3,881 216 19 0 0 197 -97 0 0 17 3 120 9 129 -0
3,667 880 2,787 205 28 1 0 176 -121 5 0 0 0 60 -7 53 0
5,064 1,084 3,980 297 28 1 0 269 -121 5 0 0 0 153 -18 134 0
4,043 849 3,194 127 28 1 0 98 -146 10 0 0 0 -38 4 -33 0
Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings
m m
129 129
53 54
135 136
EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth yoy (adj)
¢ ¢ %
8.1 8.1 61.6
3.1 3.1 31.5
EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Earnings Split Revenue Growth EBIT Growth
% % % % %
4.5 4.1 77.0 55.2 61.2
Profit and Loss Ratios
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
8,152 1,633 6,519 368 34 0 0 334 -201 -0 0 21 11 165 3 168 0
8,731 1,964 6,766 502 56 2 0 444 -241 10 0 0 1 213 -26 187 0
9,626 2,156 7,470 594 56 2 0 536 -291 20 0 0 1 265 -32 233 0
11,272 2,548 8,725 719 57 2 0 660 -312 22 0 0 1 371 -45 326 0
-33 -32
Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings
m m
168 168
187 189
233 235
326 328
7.9 7.9 -2.9
-1.9 -1.9 nmf
EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth (adj) PE (rep) PE (adj)
¢ ¢ % x x
10.5 10.5 53.0 8.4 8.4
10.9 11.1 4.9 8.0 8.0
13.6 13.7 24.1 6.5 6.4
19.0 19.2 39.7 4.6 4.6
5.6 4.8 28.4 9.9 27.9
5.9 5.3 71.6 5.2 36.5
3.1 2.4 -13.8 10.3 -44.5
Total DPS Total Div Yield Weighted Average Shares Period End Shares
¢ % m m
2.5 2.8 1,600 1,585
2.8 3.1 1,713 1,713
3.4 3.9 1,713 1,713
4.8 5.4 1,713 1,713
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EBIT Growth Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Profit Margin Payout Ratio EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
% % % % % % % % x x
48.8 48.8 45.1 20.0 4.5 4.1 2.1 23.7 11.0 12.1
7.1 36.5 33.0 22.5 5.7 5.1 2.1 25.0 8.1 9.2
10.3 18.3 20.6 22.4 6.2 5.6 2.4 25.0 6.8 7.5
17.1 21.1 23.2 22.6 6.4 5.9 2.9 25.0 5.6 6.1
Balance Sheet Ratios ROE ROA ROIC Net Debt/Equity Interest Cover Price/Book Book Value per Share
% % % % x x
31.3 7.1 16.1 415.0 1.7 2.2 0.4
26.6 7.2 11.9 346.9 1.8 1.9 0.5
26.7 8.4 13.4 286.9 1.8 1.6 0.6
29.6 9.3 15.4 243.3 2.1 1.2 0.7
Profit & Loss
Cashflow Analysis EBITDA Tax Paid Chgs in Working Cap Net Interest Paid Other Operating Cashflow Acquisitions Capex Asset Sales Other Investing Cashflow Dividend (Ordinary) Equity Raised Debt Movements Other Financing Cashflow
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
367 -12 -838 -183 0 -666 -218 -72 18 0 -271 -54 307 824 0 1,077
447 3 -113 -241 77 172 -151 -50 0 0 -201 -43 0 461 0 418
538 -32 -529 -312 228 -107 0 -65 0 0 -65 -59 0 300 0 241
663 -32 -529 -312 103 -107 0 -65 0 0 -65 -59 0 300 0 241
Net Chg in Cash/Debt
m
102
389
70
70
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
339 724 1,790 27 403 130 2,803 6,217 520 1,860 1,129 25 2,046 5,579 638 0 0 638 6,217
727 782 1,825 168 398 130 2,040 6,069 478 1,910 1,540 53 1,303 5,284 785 0 0 785 6,069
859 863 2,013 148 402 129 2,234 6,646 527 2,110 1,540 59 1,438 5,674 973 0 0 973 6,646
927 1,011 2,358 126 409 129 2,606 7,566 618 2,410 1,540 72 1,684 6,324 1,242 0 0 1,242 7,566
Balance Sheet Cash Receivables Inventories Investments Fixed Assets Intangibles Other Assets Total Assets Payables Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Provisions Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Funds Minority Interests Other Total S/H Equity Total Liab & S/H Funds
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
All figures in SGD unless noted. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2008
5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
Olam International Ltd
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions
Volatility index definition*
Financial definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements.
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests
Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below benchmark return
Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative.
Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year.
EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares
Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year.
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2008 Outperform Neutral Underperform
AU/NZ 43.17% 41.37% 15.47%
Asia 61.57% 16.43% 22.00%
RSA 63.08% 30.77% 6.15%
USA 53.60% 37.60% 8.80%
CA 71.54% 24.61% 3.85%
EUR 43.00% 48.00% 9.00%
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94 122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062 )(MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. Disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd; and Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited are not authorised deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. MGL provides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and liabilities of Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Other Disclaimers: In Canada, securities research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participating organisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montréal Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd in the United States and to US persons and any person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. Securities research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947) in Australia, a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange; Macquarie Securities (NZ) Ltd in New Zealand, a licensed sharebroker and New Zealand Exchange Firm; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd in the United Kingdom, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905); Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd in Hong Kong, which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission; Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited in Japan, a member of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc., Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd, and Jasdaq Securities Exchange, Inc. (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau(kinsho) No. 231, a member of Japan securities Dealers Association and Financial Futures Association of Japan); Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited in South Africa, a member of the JSE Limited and in Singapore, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company Registration Number: 198702912C), a Capital Markets Services licence holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodial services in Singapore. Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exempt from complying with sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, a Macquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered brokerdealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the research report is distributed in the United States by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. affiliate research reports and affiliate employees are not subject to the disclosure requirements of FINRA rules. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. and wishing to effect a transaction in any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. The information contained in this document is
5 December 2008
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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer
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confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this document in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. MGL has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level (which may be revised and updated from time to time) (the "Conflicts Policy") pursuant to regulatory requirements (including the FSA Rules) which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. Disclosures with respect to the issuers, if any, mentioned in this research are available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. © Macquarie Group Macquarie Capital (Singapore) Pte Limited has been appointed as Joint Lead Manager to the preferential offering by Olam International Limited as announced on 28 March 2008 The Macquarie Group is acting as financial adviser to Olam International Holdings Limited (OLAM:SGX) in relation to the takeover offer of all of the shares in Queensland Holdings Limited (QCH:ASX) as announced on 7 March 2007. Bangkok Tel: (662) 694 7999
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5 December 2008
8
Asia Research Head of Equity Research Stephen O’Sullivan
Media (852) 2823 3566
Automobiles/Auto Parts Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) Dan Lucas (Japan) Eunsook Kwak (Korea) Linda Huang (Taiwan)
(6221) 515 7343 (813) 3512 6050 (822) 3705 8644 (8862) 2734 7521
Banks and Non-Bank Financials Ismael Pili (Asia, Japan) Nick Lord (Asia, China, Hong Kong) Sarah Wu (China) Seshadri Sen (India) Ferry Wong (Indonesia) Chin Seng Tay (Malaysia, S’pore) Nadine Javellana (Philippines) Matthew Smith (Taiwan) Alastair Macdonald (Thailand)
(65) 6231 2840 (852) 2823 4774 (8621) 2412 9035 (9122) 6653 3053 (6221) 515 7335 (65) 6231 2837 (632) 857 0890 (8862) 2734 7514 (662) 694 7741
Chemicals/Textiles Scott Weaver (Taiwan) Jal Irani (India) Christina Lee (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)
(8862) 2734 7512 (9122) 6653 3040 (822) 3705 8670 (603) 2059 8993
Conglomerates Gary Pinge (Asia) Leah Jiang (China) Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore)
(852) 2823 3557 (8621) 2412 9020 (6221) 515 7343 (65) 6231 2830
Consumer Mohan Singh (Asia) Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) Charles Yan (China) Unmesh Sharma (India) Sarina Lesmina (Indonesia) Duane Sandberg (Japan) Toby Williams (Japan) Heather Kang (Korea) HongSuk Na (Korea) Edward Ong (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Linda Huang (Taiwan)
(852) 3901 1111 (852) 2823 3568 (8621) 2412 9033 (9122) 6653 3042 (6221) 515 7339 (813) 3512 7867 (813) 3512 7392 (822) 3705 8677 (822) 3705 8678 (603) 2059 8982 (632) 857 0899 (8862) 2734 7521
Emerging Leaders Jake Lynch (Asia) Hiu-Lui Ko (China) Minoru Tayama (Japan) Robert Burghart (Japan) Heather Kang (Korea) Scott Weaver (Taiwan)
(8621) 2412 9007 (852) 2823 4704 (813) 3512 6058 (813) 3512 7853 (822) 3705 8677 (8862) 2734 7512
Industrials Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) Christopher Cintavey (Japan) Janet Lewis (Japan) Michael Na (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) David Gambrill (Thailand)
(852) 2823 3568 (9122) 6653 3049 (603) 2059 8989 (632) 857 0899
Oil and Gas David Johnson (Asia, China) Scott Weaver (Taiwan) Jal Irani (India) Christina Lee (Korea) Edward Ong (Malaysia) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore)
(852) 2823 4691 (8862) 2734 7512 (9122) 6653 3040 (822) 3705 8670 (603) 2059 8982 (603) 2059 8993 (65) 6231 2830
Pharmaceuticals Abhishek Singhal (India) Naomi Kumagai (Japan) Christina Lee (Korea)
(9122) 6653 3052 (813) 3512 7474 (822) 3705 8670
Property Matt Nacard (Asia) Eva Lee (China, Hong Kong) Chris Cheng (China, Hong Kong) Unmesh Sharma (India) Chang Han Joo (Japan) Hiroshi Okubo (Japan) Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore) Elaine Cheong (Singapore) Corinne Jian (Taiwan) Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand)
(852) 2823 4731 (852) 2823 3573 (852) 2823 3581 (9122) 6653 3042 (813) 3512 7885 (813) 3512 7433 (65) 6231 2838 (65) 6231 2839 (8862) 2734 7522 (662) 694 7727
Resources / Metals and Mining Andrew Dale (Asia) YeeMan Chin (China) Rakesh Arora (India) Adam Worthington (Indonesia) Polina Diyachkina (Japan) Christina Lee (Korea) Scott Weaver (Taiwan)
(852) 2823 3587 (852) 2823 3562 (9122) 6653 3054 (6221) 515 7338 (813) 3512 7886 (822) 3705 8670 (8862) 2734 7512
Technology Warren Lau (Asia) Kishore Belai (India) Damian Thong (Japan) David Gibson (Japan) George Chang (Japan) Yukihiro Goto (Japan) Do Hoon Lee (Korea) Michael Bang (Korea) Patrick Yau (Singapore) Chia-Lin Lu (Taiwan) Daniel Chang (Taiwan) James Chiu (Taiwan) Nicholas Teo (Taiwan)
(852) 2823 3592 (9122) 6653 3046 (813) 3512 7877 (813) 3512 7880 (813) 3512 7854 (813) 3512 5984 (822) 3705 8641 (822) 3705 8659 (65) 6231 2835 (8862) 2734 7526 (8862) 2734 7516 (8862) 2734 7517 (8862) 2734 7523
Telecoms (9122) 6653 3166 (813) 3512 7432 (813) 3512 7475 (822) 2095 7222 (603) 2059 8993 (662) 694 7753
Insurance Mark Kellock (Asia) Seshadri Sen (Asia, India) Makarim Salman (Japan)
Transport & Infrastructure
Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) Shubham Majumder (India) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines)
(852) 2823 3567 (9122) 6653 3053 (813) 3512 7421
Tim Smart (Asia, China) Bin Liu (China) Shubham Majumder (India) Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) Nathan Ramler (Japan) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Ramakrishna Maruvada (Philippines, Singapore, Thailand)
(852) 2823 3565 (852) 2249 3634 (9122) 6653 3049 (6221) 515 7343 (813) 3512 7875 (603) 2059 8989 (65) 6231 2842
Gary Pinge (Asia) Anderson Chow (Asia, China) Jonathan Windham (Asia, China) Wei Sim (China, Hong Kong) Eunsook Kwak (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)
(852) 2823 3557 (852) 2823 4773 (852) 2823 5417 (852) 2823 3598 (822) 3705 8644 (603) 2059 8993
Utilities Carol Cao (China, Hong Kong) Adam Worthington (Indonesia) Kakutoshi Ohori (Japan) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines)
(852) 2823 4075 (6221) 515 7338 (813) 3512 7296 (603) 2059 8989 (632) 857 0899
Commodities Jim Lennon Adam Rowley Jonathan Butcher Max Layton Bonnie Liu Henry Liu Rakesh Arora
(4420) 7065 2014 (4420) 7065 2013 (4420) 7065 5938 (4420) 7065 2000 (8621) 2412 9008 (8621) 2412 9005 (9122) 6653 3054
Data Services Andrea Clohessy (Asia)
(852) 2823 4076
Economics Bill Belchere (Asia) Rajeev Malik (ASEAN, India) Richard Gibbs (Australia) Paul Cavey (China) Richard Jerram (Japan)
(852) 2823 4636 (65) 6231 2841 (612) 8232 3935 (852) 2823 3570 (813) 3512 7855
Quantitative Martin Emery (Asia) Viking Kwok (Asia) George Platt (Australia) Raelene de Souza (Australia) Tsumugi Akiba (Japan)
(852) 2823 3582 (852) 2823 4735 (612) 8232 6539 (612) 8232 8388 (813) 3512 7560
Strategy/Country Tim Rocks (Asia) Daniel McCormack (Asia) Desh Peramunetilleke (Asia) Mahesh Kedia (Asia) Michael Kurtz (China) Seshadri Sen (India) Ferry Wong (Indonesia) Chris Hunt (Japan) Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) Eugene Ha (Korea) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Edward Ong (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Tuck Yin Soong (ASEAN, Singapore) Daniel Chang (Taiwan) Alastair Macdonald (Thailand)
(852) 2823 3585 (852) 2823 4073 (852) 2823 3564 (852) 2823 3576 (8621) 2412 9002 (9122) 6653 3053 (6221) 515 7335 (813) 3512 7878 (813) 3512 7850 (822) 3705 8643 (603) 2059 8989 (603) 2059 8982 (632) 857 0899 (65) 6231 2838 (8862) 2734 7516 (662) 694 7741
Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx Email [email protected] for access
Sales Regional Heads of Sales Peter Slater (Boston) Michelle Paisley (China, Hong Kong) Ulrike Pollak-Tsutsumi (Frankfurt) Thomas Renz (Geneva) Ajay Bhatia (India) Stuart Smythe (India) Chris Gray (Indonesia) Gino C Rojas (Philippines) Greg Norton-Kidd (New York) Luke Sullivan (New York)
(1 617) 217 2103 (852) 2823 3516 (49) 69 7593 8747 (41) 22 818 7712 (9122) 6653 3200 (9122) 6653 3200 (6221) 515 7304 (632) 857 0761 (1 212) 231 2527 (1 212) 231 2507
Regional Heads of Sales cont’d
Sales Trading cont’d
Scot Mackie (New York) Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) Giles Heyring (Singapore, Malaysia) Mark Duncan (Korea, Taiwan) Angus Kent (Thailand) Michael Newman (Tokyo) Charles Nelson (UK/Europe) Rob Fabbro (UK/Europe)
Brendan Rake (India) Edward Robinson (London) Robert Risman (New York) Isaac Huang (Taiwan) Jon Omori (Tokyo)
(1 212) 231 2848 (1 415) 835 1235 (65) 6231 2888 (8862) 2734 7510 (662) 694 7601 (813) 3512 7920 (44) 20 7065 2032 (44) 20 7065 2031
Sales Trading Adam Zaki (Asia) Mona Lee (Hong Kong) Stuart Goddard (Europe)
December 08
(852) 2823 3528 (852) 2823 3519 (44) 20 7065 2033
(9122) 6653 3204 (44) 20 7065 5883 (1 212) 231 2555 (8862) 2734 7582 (813) 3512 7838
Alternative Strategies Convertibles - Roland Sharman Depository Receipts - Robert Ansell Derivatives - Tim Connolly Futures - Tim Smith Hedge Fund Sales - Darin Lester Structured Products - Andrew Terlich
(852) 2823 4628 (852) 2823 4688 (852) 2249 3380 (852) 2823 4637 (852) 2823 4736 (852) 2249 3225
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