October 8, 2009

October 8, 2009

European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 by Nick Thomas for Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

Making Leaders Successful Every Day

For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals Includes data from Consumer Technographics® October 8, 2009

European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014

Two-Thirds Of European Internet Users Will Be Watching Online Video By 2014 by Nick Thomas with Mark Mulligan and Erik Hood

Exec ut i v e S u m ma ry Western European Internet users have embraced the Web as a place to read news, play games, listen to music, and, especially, watch video. Consumption of all these will continue to rise, but most users of most content will not pay for it directly. Monetization will continue to be a challenge: While video is on track to become the most popular type of content online in the next three years, the shortage so far of compelling paid propositions means that revenues from online video will not start to take off until 2011. For music, on the other hand, there is light at the end of what has been a long tunnel: A new generation of subscription services, alongside Apple’s pioneering iTunes store, will create a market worth more than €2,435 million by 2014.

ta bl e of Contents 2 Audiences Love Online Content — And Some Users May Even Pay For Some Of It Most European Online Consumers Will Be Watching Online Video By 2011 While Online Music Buyers Will Increase, Buyers Of Other Content Will Remain Elusive Online Music Spend Will Accelerate, But Video Spend Won’t Take Off Until 2011 recommendations

9 Be Realistic, Get Social, And Focus On The User Experience 9 Supplemental Material

N OT E S & R E S O URCE S We used data from the Forrester Research Activity and Online Paid Content Forecast, 09/09 (Western Europe) for this report.

Related Research Documents “How To Survive The Media Meltdown” August 5, 2009 “We Are All Media Companies Now” July 7, 2009 “How Digital Consumption Is Reinventing The Media Industry” May 1, 2009

© 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please email [email protected]. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com.

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

Audiences love online content — and Some users may even pay for some of it The impact of digitization on the content industry — what we at Forrester call the media meltdown — has been liberating for users but pesky for content owners. From a user’s perspective, the Web is a brilliant place to find content, whether it’s news, video, sports, games, or music, and adoption levels continue to rise. From a content owners’ perspective, though, the Web has been spectacularly unsuccessful in generating the kinds of revenues that physical media like CDs and DVDs have done (but are no longer doing). Yet after much soul-searching, no little pain, and a few false dawns, we are beginning to see some new models emerging that may yet persuade Internet users to open their wallets. Not all media categories are equal, though, and while music leads the way, video will be slower to develop its revenues despite its surging popularity. And for the beleaguered newspaper industry, we see no such cause for online optimism — yet. Most European Online Consumers Will Be Watching Online Video By 2011 As broadband adoption has risen throughout Europe, so rich media content has become a key part of users’ online experience. Video consumption — driven by the success of YouTube and boosted by the emergence of online catch-up services from broadcasters, such as the BBC’s iPlayer and M6 Replay in France — is moving beyond specialist sites and becoming integrated into the wider Web experience. A mainstream Web site that lacks video content is now rare, and increasingly that video is center stage, not confined to a separate part of the site. In this context, Forrester forecasts that video will be the most popular content category online by 2014, although music and games sites will be much more effective at charging users for their content (see Figure 1).

· The rise of online video continues across Europe. It is well on its way to becoming a

mainstream activity across all of the 17 countries included in our forecast.1 While penetration in 2014 will be highest in the early-adopting Netherlands, reaching 79% by 2014, watching video content will be a mainstream online activity even in laggard Greece. Our categories are not exclusive: Video is an increasingly important part of news and sports Web sites, for example, while music video is the most popular subcategory on the most-watched video service, YouTube. Germany will have the largest audience for online video in 2014, with 40.9 million Internet users watching it.

· News remains the most popular standalone content category online for now. Although we

expect video to overtake it in 2012, news continues to grow in popularity among European online users. At first glance, this seems out of step with a news industry struggling to support its existing business structures. But in one sense, the notable popularity of online news, without effective monetization, has accelerated the decline of the news industry’s traditional business models. Don’t believe the rumors that news doesn’t have an audience or that young Internet users in particular are not interested in it.2 While 61% of European online users will access news content online in 2014, the highest interest, as now, will be in those territories where newspapers have traditionally sold most, such as Sweden (77%). Germany, though, will be the largest European market by some distance, with 39.8 million online users accessing news sites online.

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

· The UK will remain the main market for online sports content within Europe. With

(proper) football dominant, UK users are more committed than their European counterparts to following sports news and playing sports-related games online, such as the Fantasy Football leagues run by newspapers.3 Sports content is not going to become a mainstream activity in Europe, however, with only 23% of European Internet users accessing it even by 2014. While the increase in freely available video content online will help drive further engagement, we also expect more traction from more niche sports, especially those that lend themselves to Web-based coverage — such as cricket, with its lengthy game play as well as its reliance on data, graphics, video, and audio.4

· Some 25% of European Internet users will be playing online games regularly by 2014. While

playing games online won’t become a mainstream activity overall, penetration levels will be significantly higher among younger users than among older generations, reflecting the youth skew of many games. Social games will drive further growth among younger social networkers — interacting with their friends via games on Facebook, for example.5 While playing games will continue to grow online, it will grow more rapidly as an activity among mobile users in the next five years, creating new opportunities for games that can be played across both platforms.6

· The UK will have Europe’s largest market for online music, with 26.3 million users by 2014.

However, the highest proportion of Internet users accessing music online will be in Scandinavia, where many of the most innovative music products are now being developed — from Sweden’s Spotify to Danish telco TDC’s free music offering Play, which has successfully pioneered a new distribution paradigm by bundling music into a broadband package. By contrast, online music consumption in Germany will relatively remain low at just 36% of Internet users, although it will still be the third-largest market in Europe due to its massive population.

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October 8, 2009

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

Figure 1 Forecast: Western European Online Content Activity, 2009 To 2014 Percent of European online users accessing content online 100% 80% Video News

60%

Music 40% Games Sports

20% 0%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

News

48%

51%

53%

55%

56%

58%

59%

61%

Video

30%

38%

45%

51%

55%

59%

63%

67%

Music

30%

35%

39%

42%

45%

47%

49%

51%

Sports

20%

21%

22%

22%

22%

23%

23%

23%

Games

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

Source: Forrester Research Activity and Online Paid Content Forecast, 09/09 (Western Europe) 53766

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

While Online Music Buyers Will Increase, Buyers Of Other Content Will Remain Elusive The music industry has had longer to deal with the seismic impact of the media meltdown, and although it may never regain the kinds of revenues it enjoyed at the height of the CD sales boom, some of its initiatives are starting to bear fruit.7 By acknowledging what its consumers actually value and by not hanging on to outdated analog models, the music industry is starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. Even for music, however, a significant share of digital revenues will come from free-to-the-consumer services. There is cause for guarded optimism in the games sector, too, where buyers are still a minority but are willing to spend. The video industry has yet to offer truly compelling paid propositions, which means its revenues will not take off until 2011. Sports content online will struggle to compete with pay TV, while the news sector faces the biggest challenges, despite the appeal of its content (see Figure 2).

October 8, 2009

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

Figure 2 Forecast: Western European Online Content Buyers, 2009 To 2014 Percent of European online adults who will pay to access content online 25% Music

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Games Sports Video News 2014

2007

2008

Music

7.3%

8.8%

10.6%

12.9%

15.9%

19.1%

22.0%

24.1%

Games

2.9%

3.4%

3.8%

4.1%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

5.0%

Sports

1.6%

1.9%

2.1%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

2.6%

Video

0.6%

0.7%

0.9%

1.0%

1.2%

1.5%

1.8%

2.1%

News

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

Source: Forrester Research Activity and Online Paid Content Forecast, 09/09 (Western Europe) 53766

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

· The growth in online video has not yet delivered a new generation of buyers. The vast

majority of videos offered and viewed are and will remain free — both the user-generated content on YouTube and the TV shows available via broadcaster catch-up services. The market for paid video content online is still nascent, with online aggregators struggling to assemble the right content at the right price and with the right consumer experience. Rights holders’ reluctance to offer content at what consumers consider a fair price — with digital rentals still on a par with physical DVDs, for example — has been a major brake on the development of this market, but we expect competition from new entrants to deliver a number of more compelling offerings in 2010, with revenues growing after that.8 Although movies represent the best opportunity for generating new revenues, buyers will still represent just 3.2% of the total European online video audience by 2014.

· Only 1.1% of the online news audience in 2014 will be paying for it. Although online news

traffic continues to grow, only specialist business titles like the Financial Times have established any kind of a successful paid-for model. While this is the big topic among news publishers in 2009, simply erecting a paywall in front of existing services will drive users elsewhere, given the

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October 8, 2009

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

commoditized nature of much news coverage and its ubiquity online. Building an agreement among publishers that they will all build a paywall seems equally unlikely. Publishers will have more success by offering core news for free and charging for access to additional exclusive content and for “membership” of a club based around shared values and passions — travel, personal finance, books, or food, for example. With little evidence of users’ willingness to pay for core news content, publishers will succeed by leveraging their news brands to drive users to new revenue streams.9

· Pay TV will remain the dominant platform around paid content for sports. Sports content

remains primarily free online, although UK pay-TV giant BSkyB now offers Internet-only subscriptions to its sports channels. The primary TV will remain the main outlet for football, the main sport in Europe.10 There will be opportunities online for smaller clubs that are currently not covered by the main broadcasters to sell their coverage to small but passionate audiences, while other online growth opportunities will lie with smaller niche sports that lend themselves to the Web medium — those that combine video with graphics, data, and user interaction via a social element, plus live gambling where legal. While most sports content will be free to consumers and with only 11.3% of the sports online audience paying for content online in 2014, we might see paid-for services develop around sports as diverse as motorsport, horse racing, cycling, and chess, for example.

· More than 20% of the online games audience will pay for some of their content by 2014. The

core of these buyers will be active players of massively multiplayer online games (MMOGs) — notably Activision Blizzard’s World Of Warcraft, whose revenues dominate this sector. Persuading players of casual games to pay for a “pro” version online remains a harder sell, with conversion rates of 1% to 2% historically, although a focus on monetizing through in-game purchases and virtual currencies rather than the game itself have created new revenue streams. One area of growth has been among “tween” online users — those aged 9 to 12 — who have embraced the likes of Club Penguin and Stardoll.11 Forrester anticipates future growth from social gaming, both online and on mobile phones; the potential for revenues is more likely on the mobile — thanks to an established billing arrangement for purchase — especially if users can access these games across multiple platforms.

· Forty-seven percent of the online music audience will pay for some of that music by 2014.

Growth will come not just from transactional sites like iTunes but also from new subscriptionbased services. The former model worked for Apple, but no one has replicated its success, as they’ve been unable to match its user-friendly combination of a deep catalog, one-click purchasing, and an ecosystem based around a proprietary (and highly desirable) device. Apple will continue to dominate this model in the medium term. The much-hyped Spotify model offers a primarily free Web-based experience with an option for a paid upgrade to a premium

October 8, 2009

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

service, while UK cable company Virgin Media’s broadband customers will soon be offered unlimited access to Universal Music’s catalog for a monthly fee. Such models will achieve traction in Europe in the next five years as the music labels come to terms with the realities of the media meltdown and deliver services that users want. Online Music Spend Will Accelerate, But Video Spend Won’t Take Off Until 2011 The new models emerging to distribute music online will lead to decent revenue growth in the next five years, although they still won’t generate enough to offset declining CD sales. Moreover, the tangled legacy of territorial rights and the conflicting interests of different stakeholder groups will inhibit certain music services from entering less promising territories.12 Yet music is still in the vanguard for digital content offerings in Europe; other sectors, notably video, are still lagging the kinds of new product innovation we are seeing from music services. This helps explain why Forrester forecasts slow takeoff for revenues beyond music and games (see Figure 3).

· The lack of appealing paid video offerings will continue to inhibit spending. Although

competition in this space is now heating up, we have yet to see a truly successful on-demand online video portal that has all these requirements: a deep catalog, up-to-date content, a great user experience, attractive pricing — and an audience.13 However, with younger users now spending more time online than watching TV and with consumption of movies via DVD remaining steady, the opportunity to create a sizeable paying audience for movies delivered digitally seems worth pursuing, although we may have to wait until there is a base of installed users able to access, for example, LOVEFiLM on Project Canvas via a set-top box.14 Conversely, these services may succeed by delivering video via IP to the primary TV rather than to a PC or laptop, but we anticipate growth on both platforms. As the players looking to enter this market develop their services, we expect not just the number of buyers but also the average revenue per user (ARPU) to increase — from just under €24 per user in 2009 to just over €55.50 per user in 2014.

· Spend on news services will not see significant growth. Although publishers are now talking

publically about introducing paywalls, we have yet to see a general news site attract paying customers. The future, as outlined above, will be in leveraging the news brands and creating new revenues beyond the core news itself. Most users will be happy with freely provided (adsupported) news, whether from the likes of the BBC or aggregated via the likes of Google News. Such aggregators have highlighted to readers how dependent many news providers have been on recycling the same wire services. News providers must work harder to add value with exclusive content and analysis to retain their value.15 This kind of deepened engagement may not result in a rise in subscriptions to the news service, alas, but it will create new opportunities for publishers to connect with and sell to their readers.

· Sports spend online will remain a fraction of that spent on premium pay-TV channels.

With total European revenues of €151 million by 2014, online sports content on its own will not compare with the value of premium sports services on TV, which will see the lion’s share of consumer spend on accessing sports coverage. However, online content can play an important

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

strategic role in preserving the value of pay-TV packages, if it is offered as a free add-on. And although we see interesting opportunities for more niche sports to create new paying audiences, these will, by definition, be smaller.

· Online games revenues overall will reach €828 million by 2014. Among the categories we

forecast, the ARPU for online games is highest, with the average paying gamer’s annual spend reaching €55.60 by 2014. Those who do pay for online games tend to commit both time and money to the experience. Although the big growth will come in the Scandinavian countries, the UK market will dominate European games revenues, accounting for €193.5 million of the total in 2014.

· European music spend will accelerate in the next five years, reaching €2,435 million by 2014.

We expect to see the continued steady growth of the à la carte sector, coupled with dynamic growth in new paid-for subscription services to drive this; iTunes will remain a key player. Not only do we expect the number of European Internet music buyers to increase, but we expect them to spend more, too: By 2014, the average European online music buyer will spend just over €34 on digital music each year.

Figure 3 Forecast: Western European Paid Online Content Revenues, 2009 To 2014 Revenues from buyers of online content (millions)

€2,500

Music

€2,000 €1,500 €1,000

Games

€500 €0

2010

2011

2012

2013

Video Sports News 2014

2007

2008

2009

Music

€415

€583

€782

€1,042

€1,392

€1,768

€2,137

€2,435

Games

€329

€424

€502

€568

€633

€695

€758

€828

Sports

€63

€82

€97

€109

€120

€131

€141

€151

News

€61

€66

€70

€74

€79

€84

€89

€95

Video

€21

€35

€52

€75

€112

€170

€247

€355

Base: European online adults Source: Forrester Research Activity and Online Paid Content Forecast, 09/09 (Western Europe) 53766 October 8, 2009

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

Reco m m en d at i ons

BE Realistic, get social, and focus on the user experience Paid content services online will fail to build an audience if their valuation of the content is too far from that of the users. While users might want an all-you-can-eat model for €10 per month, some content owners in some sectors are holding out for prices that still match or even exceed physical media. But something has to give. Understanding users’ requirements is key, and part of that is to understand the vital importance of “social”: With social networking firmly established among younger audiences in particular, users now expect and want to share, rate, and comment on content. They also expect a site to make that experience easy and fun. Integrating both social elements and a great user experience is not going to be merely desirable — it will be essential for the successful monetization of online content.16

· Content owners must be realistic about the value of their content. Content owners whose estimation of the actual value of their content matches that of its users will succeed. There is a current mismatch in valuation — most users value content well below what most content owners want to charge for it.

· Add value to the content with Web-specific social initiatives. Users do not value a secondrate experience, where the Web is just another delivery platform for TV content, for example. By enhancing the value of their content through low-cost but high-impact initiatives, such as the integration of social elements into news coverage, owners will go some way toward meeting the expectations of potential buyers.

· Invest in the user experience. In future, content sites will not be able to differentiate through their catalogs alone, although a deep and up-to-date catalog is vital. A great user experience is always important, but it is pivotally so in the context of persuading consumers to pay for content.

Supplemental MATERIAL As part of the forecast modeling, Forrester develops comprehensive historical and base-year market size estimates based on a variety of sources, including public financial documents, executive interviews, and Forrester’s proprietary primary consumer and executive research. All of Forrester’s forecasts are designed by a dedicated team of forecasting analysts who build the models, conduct extensive industry research, and manage the process of formally building consensus among Forrester’s analysts. Forecast analysts have backgrounds in investment banking, management consulting, and market research, where they developed extensive experience with industry and company forecasting. For more information on Forrester’s new ForecastView offering, including access to additional details and metrics not included in this report, please contact us at [email protected].

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

Endnotes 1

Source: Forrester Research Activity and Online Paid Content Forecast, 09/09 (Western Europe). This model is a part of Forrester’s new ForecastView offering. It includes detailed forecast data about the 17 Western European countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece).

2

While the definition of “news” may be evolving, the reality is that for many people the definition includes both what Britney is wearing and the elections in Iran, for example. Add in the notion of a “news feed” from a social networking site — which might combine what a user’s friends have been up to with posts of traditional news content — and we can see that a formal journalistic notion of what constitutes news is in danger of becoming irrelevant.

3

Disney subsidiary ESPN’s mooted decision in September 2009 to launch a dedicated sports portal in the UK makes sense, although one publisher advised Forrester that specialist sites (based around one football club, for example) attract a more loyal and active audience than generalist ones.

4

One example is the English Premier League highlights available free via Virgin Media’s Web site.

5

Zynga’s social game FarmVille, for example, had more than 50 million active players globally on Facebook in September 2009. Source: “Chinese Developers Move Up As FarmVille Hit 50M This Week,” InsideSocialGames.com, September 28, 2009 (http://www.insidesocialgames.com/2009/09/28/chinesedevelopers-move-up-as-farmville-hit-50m-this-week/).

6

As mobile phones are now ubiquitous across Western Europe, the industry’s attention has turned to the mobile Internet arena. Despite the recession, mobile Internet adoption will continue to grow significantly, with audiences tripling from 13% of Western European mobile users in 2008 to 39% in 2014. The current economic climate will lengthen handset renewal cycles, foster the development of low-cost offerings, and boost the uptake of SIM-only contracts. However, it will only slightly reduce the pace of growth for those elements that stimulate mobile Internet usage: 3.5G and Internet-centric mobile phones as well as all-youcan-eat data plans will be widely available in the next five years. In the next decade, the mobile Internet will replicate the success story of the PC-based Internet. As Europe is one of the most diverse and saturated mobile landscapes in the world, the challenge will be to adapt to local conditions to increase the usage of new services. Forrester recommends that consumer product strategists carefully analyze the differences across Europe and take a detailed look at each national situation when defining their strategies. See the August 28, 2009, “Western European Mobile Forecast, 2009 To 2014” report.

7

The media meltdown — where traditional media business models based on scarcity and control are fundamentally challenged by the new realities of digital media consumption — is creating huge problems for media companies. But consumers are spending more than ever on accessing content and are also still loyal to “old” media. Companies must understand what has changed, what has stayed the same, and where their opportunities lie. New innovations like social tools can complement traditional media skills, such as programming, to enhance the value of next-generation content. See the May 1, 2009, “How Digital Consumption Is Reinventing The Media Industry” report.

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European Paid Content And Online Activity Forecast, 2009 To 2014 For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

8

In the UK, for example, users could expect to see in the next 12 months paid online video offerings from the likes of Hulu, YouTube, Microsoft (both via its MSN Video service and via downloads to the Xbox), Arqiva, and Project Canvas, the platform initiative backed by the BBC, ITV, and incumbent telco BT. The latest partner to join Canvas is LOVEFiLM, the largest DVD rental company in the UK, which is seeking to migrate users from its online rental of physical DVDs subscription service to online digital rental.

9

Just as supermarkets like Tesco have also become banks, news organizations should consider selling holidays, insurance products, and wine, for example.

10

That will be strengthened by the introduction of services like Xbox’s “Party Mode,” part of its joint venture with BSkyB that allows groups of Xbox owners, wherever they are, to watch BSkyB’s football coverage together in real time in a virtual living room; they are represented on screen by avatars and can exchange comments on screen.

11

Although game play is primarily free, the sites encourage users to subscribe to a premium paid-for version. This demographic represents a good prospect for growth, given that is usually their parents who stump up for subscriptions, resulting in reported conversion rates closer to 5%.

12

Pandora’s reluctance to enter the UK market is a frustrated response to the complex and unwieldy thicket of agreements that it is obliged to negotiate.

13

Some sites — such as SevenOne Media’s maxdome platform in Germany or blinkbox in the UK — have some of these elements in place, including a decent catalog, but adoption remains low; in general, European consumers remain unconvinced by services that many see as still too slow and too expensive.

14

Source: European Technographics Media, Marketing, And Social Computing Online Survey, Q3 2008.

15

Firms can do this by allowing their community of readers to help them create, sort, rate, and share content.

16

This is the case with the best online retailers now, such as Amazon.com.

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53766