¦*¦
The Sore
Spots
of Middle
¡What Remains To Be Done at the
-"-*-'.
m
-«-«7-LÍ7
Europe
Fourteen Districts in Which Lie The Germs of Future Hostilities
The No Man's Lands of the Balkans
Peace Conference Is Far More Than What Has Already Been
There Is Possibility of an Alliance Germany, Russia and Italy | ofin the Complex Balkan Prob¬ lem That Awaits Solution
Done.Many Danger Spots By Frank II. Simonds
IT IS, perhaps, a mere truism to remark that what remains to he done at the Paris Conference is far more considerable alike in bulk and in importance than what has been accomplished in th« treaty with Germany. Still, there may be a cer-i tain surprise in pointing out that the treaty recently signed disposes of less than 10 per cent of the territory which must be apportioned before the work of making peace is ever, while the population awaiting alio-
something like seventy millions, as compared with the less than seventy millions divided in the Versailles settlement. The Allies, who have conquered Germany and imposed their peace terms upon her, have now to sepa¬ cation is
little order and calm out of that great central chaos which now ex¬ tends from the Baltic to the Mgean and from the Adriatic to the Black Sea. Until these things are accom¬ plished thc-Ve can be no peace in Eu¬ rope, rind in the accomplishment of eyen a temporary arrangement there may be sown the seeds of many
future
wars.
To begin at the beginning, there js the Russian problem. It may be {divided into two equally important Varis; there is the question of Rus¬ sia itself and the question of the various races on the fringe of the Russian state, which are seeking ndependence, union with other fraclions of their own race who are seekpermanent separation from Rus¡ia, precisely as the Danes, the Poles and the people of Alsace-Lor¬ raine sougjit liberation from the
ally;
she
finally collapsed
and made
separate peace; but does this jus¬ tify her recent allies in treating her
a
dividing
her terri¬ enemy and tories, cutting her off from the Bal¬ tic; in effect, ratifying the. terms of as an
tlio treaty which her enemy Ger¬ many imposed upon her, swovd in
hand> at B rest-Li to\»fil
Unfortunately,
the progress of has resulted in the permanent alienation of Italy; nothing is more certain than that, once the chance comes, Italy will re¬ turn to her old German alliance. To insure that Russia, when she does
events at Paris
already
the old Russian Poland? But the Polish armies are in Wilna, Minsk and Kove!, fighting Bolshevist forces. Certainly if Kolchak will not recog¬ nize the independence of Finland he will not consent to the separa¬ tion of Lithuania, White Russia and Volhynia from the old Muscovite state.
Nor is the
dispute merely
be¬
tween the Pole and the Russian
here. Qn the contrary, the Poles desire to restore the old confedera¬ tion between Lithuania and Poland, while the Lithuanians desire uncon¬ ditional independence, and even if this were granted there is still to be settled the age-long difference be¬ tween two peoples as to their boun¬ daries. If the Paris conference gives Poland White Russia and Lithuania, it alienates the Russians and the Lithuanians; if it does not, German yoke. it alienates the Poles. If it returns the Lithuanians to Russia, it alien¬ on Russia » ates both these people and the Poles Is Complex Problem and does violence to the of As to Russia herself, what policy self-determination of peoples.right will the Allies adopt? They can¬ Then there is the problem of Riga, not recognize Lénine and the Reds, of Libau, of the provinces of the both because the things these people Esthonia and Livonia, Courland, the are to all of abhorrent represent a certain minority of German with ideas of western civilization and be¬ inhabitants and a strong separatist cause, unless recognized by the out¬ sentiment. To take these away side world, they will shortly collapse Russia from would be to undo the of their own weight. But if there is to be peace in Eu¬ work of Peter the Great and le'avn Russia without access to the Baltic. rope there must be peace in Russia, and to obtain peace in Russia it is New War Against eninntial that the western powers Russia Possible »hould find some substitute for the these people are But anarchy and suicide of the Lénine asking, precisely with Allied help, a gallant régime. Apparently the Allies now fight against the Bolshevist Rus¬ are placing their hopes upon Kolshall they be rewarded by sians; is chak, but this decision arousing betrayal to the Russians? If they protest in Britain and France, are, will unquestionably fight where Kolchak is seen as a reaction¬ with they aid.German troops German ary, and in neither country is there are still there.against Russia until any desire to restore in Russia the such time as Russia and Germany tyranny of the old, stupid and cor¬ come to terms over the whole set of rupt régime, which has gone. that concern them. It is, questions over¬ can Kolchak Granted that no simple tangle, this problem then, throw Lénine and Trotzky, however, of the Baltic and Polish hinter¬ this only raises new problems. He Will come to Moscow and Petrograd lands. In the solving of it, the main ques a« the champion of a restored Rustion necessarily will be the self-in¬ it is and rta, of a reunited Russia, he will consent, that terest of the Western powers. Ii conceivable that ' bis countrymen will consent, to any would be idle to expect Great Brit and France to alienate Russia treaty by which the nations, yester¬ ain ceding her territories to Polana by day Russian allies, shall have appor¬ and or more independent Baltic one between tioned Russian territories i the several border states, erected a states, thus insuring a speedy com¬ .ew Poland, liberated Finland, allo- bination of Russia and Germany tc * cated Bessarabia to Rumania and undo this work. The fact that every Europear »«cognized the independence of the and most Americans dis recognizes Baltic .everal tribes of the provregard is that the German victory faces? over Rus'sia destroyed the balance f Join Germany of power in Europe, which was re Bo Red i vide Poland stored only when we sent great to the Continent. Thest armies situaa such Instead of accepting ; tlon, is it not almost inevitable that armies have mostly departed; theii the new Russia, the restored Russia, return under any cirmustances i; will join hand» with Germany in a at least problematical ; therefore, i< Sew partition of Poland, in a new is of Utmost importance to the West if they are to exist, t( arrangement «n the Baltic lands, em powers, between Russir alliance an S which shall reproduce the situation prevent which would be al and Germany, the since has existed steadily bwhkh can This b< irresistible. most a and Policies of a great Russian so framinf great Prussian, Peter and Freder¬ avoided only, if at all,asby not to dis peace ick, brought Russia to the Baltic the termstheof Russia of to-morrow and excluded Poland from the open xatisfy which, one must assume, will b< fea? If Russia were condemned always strong and mindful of its histori« to he the thing It is, it would be easy greatness. il« aettl« all th« question» now That is w>y the whole Russiar
fild
Ing
Policy
(
'
May
the Germans and the Magyars com¬ bined would outnumber the Ruma¬ nians. Moreover, the southwestern districts are Serb, the northwest¬ ern Magyar, but to give these dis¬ tricts to the Serbs and the Magyars would be to deprive the Rumanians living in the uplands of their natural and necessary means of communication to the Theiss and Danube rivers, by which* they ex¬ port their produce.
other hand, can point to the pledges given by their allies in secret treaties; moreover, in the matter of Bessarabia, Rumania's claim is in¬
thejj»
ponent racial parts, deal with the become
a
Rumania and Italy or conquer Jugo-
Slavia and suppress Greece. Both the latter frankly ask only outnumber the German?, for what they are entitled to have and Magyars, who are all according to the famous Fourteen in considerable numbers, biff Points. Italy and Rumania, on the
in the has a nians Serbs
possible. But neither the one nor the other condition is fulfilled. Rus¬ sia was long an ally, and a useful
Austria-Hungary into its com¬ a great power again, as she Kusso-Polish problem, the Russo- almost certainly must, because of Rumanian question, bring about a the fashion in which her old allies settlement so far as England is con¬ have treated her, shall also turn to cerned, dispose of the tangled prob¬ the Germans is to provide for a new lem of Constantinople and the war, with every chance in favor of 6hores of the Straits and impose a victory by the new alliance. The real difficulty which con¬ peace terms upon Bulgaria. fronts the men who have to carry Reconcile Must on the work of peacemaking is the Racial Disputes puzzle about Russia. We have rec¬ Not less difficult is the task of ognized the independence of Fin¬ reconciling the disputes between the land, but Kolchak flatly refuses to separate races on which the several recognize it on his part. We have provinces of Austria are to be be¬ recognized the claim of Polaml to stowed, accommodating the acute freedom, which Kolchak also con¬ quarrel between the southern Slavs cedes, but what is to bo Poland's and the Italians, and thus bringing eastern limit? The boundaries of rate
any race many who inhabit it which clear majority. The Ruma¬
1,500,000 and there is not
raised; if Russia were conquered after a war waged against Britain, France and Italy, then terms like those imposed upon Germany would be.
The black areas
are
disputed territories the disposition of which _
problem has continued to paralyze the Paris conference. A mistake, tRe "backing of the wrong horse," would be fatal. Lloyd George and Wilson were willing to flirt with Lé¬ nine, some months ago, because neither was directly exposed to Rus¬ sian invasion if the reactionary fac¬ tion regained control, but France is; has been invaded by Russians at least twice in a little more than a century, and France was always op^ posed to that man.uvre which ended ingloriously in the Prinkipo fiasco. We have, as a result of our, peace¬ making so far, alienated Italy and created a sullen, resentful,'revenge¬ ful Germany. Both circumstances
must
Conference
still he decided
by the
Peace
dispute directly with Rus¬ tion is Polish, but the Czechs have ticklish puzzle, which we may call sia, without, however, receiving in an economic necessity tö possess the the Rumanian question. The new advance any guarantee from the land, at least they allege such a Rumania is something like Western powers, although no one necessity, and the Paris conference a square, andshaped on each of its four disputes the fact that the great ma¬ once conceded it to them. Then it sides it has a near-war in progress. jority of the population are Ru¬ repented. On the east it disputes with the manian by race. Ukrainians and thus with the RusTwo Slav Peoples Even this summary retreat does sians the territory once comprising not, however, dispose of all the ques¬ With Daggers Drawn the Russian province of Bessarabia. Now the question is open again, On the north it is at odds with tions affecting Poland. To-day Pol¬ ish armies are fighting the Ukraini¬ with the two Slav peoples at dag¬ Husigary over a vast area of Ruans in Eastern Galicia, and there is gers drawn. To give it to one would manian speaking lands, which it an historic dispute between these be to alienate the other, to estab has taken in recent months. On tho peoples for the possession of East¬ lish a separate state under the guar¬ sj^uth there is the old quarrel with ern Galicia, with Lemberg, the cap¬ antee of the league of nations would Bulgaria over all of the Dobrudja ital, which is itself a Polish city, sur¬ be to alienate both and erect an in¬ in general and the Southern Dorounded by a Ruther.ian speaking defensible state, one more indefen¬ brudja in particular. On the west country. Had Russia stayed in the sible state in Europe, without any there is a new quarrel with the were approximately inevitable: at war she would have annexed all of desire for independence and with Serbs over the western fringe of least there was no escape from the Galicia with the consent of the absolutely no means of defending the Banat. its unsought independence or re¬ For the Western powers to rec¬ German detail. To add to these a Western powers, but what now? ceiving aid from the nations which ognize -Rumanian claims to Bessa¬ Russia, destined to be again the First of all, will the Ukraine en¬ »would thus create it. rabia would be to alienate Russian greatest power on the Continent, dure as a separate state or will it To sum up, then, the Allies, with opinion, precisely as in the north. would be for France and Great revert to Russia? Should the WestBritain, with her Indian Empire and ern powers follow the German ex- cur assistance, must give Poland an But to fail to recognize Rumanian her Mesopotamian colony, to com¬ ample and recognize the independ¬ eastern frontier, since they have claims would be to deny the Four¬ ence of the Ukraine or not? To recognized its right to exist. To teen Points, since the people are mit suicide* recognize would be to alienate the do this they must assign Russian Rumanian and have already selfNorthern Russians and the Poles; territory to Poland, yet it is of determined themselves to be such, Poland Has Many not to recognize might be to guess utmost importance that they do and, even more serious, to alienate Troubles in Store wrong, for the Ukrainians might not alienate Russian national senti¬ th.e Rumanian nation, which is des¬ Therefore, it is not going to be gain liberty. But to bestow Eastern ment, drive a restored Russia into tined to be one of the great powers of the future in Europe, larger in easy or rapid work, this settling the Galicia upon the Poles would alien¬ German arms. * eastern frontiers of Poland and Ru¬ ate both the Russians and the The same problem must be faced area than the mainland of Italy, and mania and the future status of the Ukrainians and lead to serious con¬ in dealing with Finland, the Baltic capable of sustaining at least as Baltic provinces. I should guess sequences: Meantime the Poles provinces, while there large a population. If Rumania that in the end Finland would be hold all of it, as'^a result of their also is the Lithuania, incident grave danger tc finds her claims denied, she unques¬ confirmed in her independence, Po¬ victories, and mean to hang on. the Poles, the Lithua tionably will renounce her associa¬ alienating land in the possession of not much Then there is the dispute between nians, the peoples of the Baltic tion with the Western powers; so more than the old area of Russian the Poles and the Czecho-Slovaks provinces and the Czecho-Slovaks much she has already threatened Poland, including Cholm, while Ru¬ over Teschen, a tiny'territory, im¬ as each or all feel their own rights to do. manian possession of Bessarabia, mensely rich in minerals, lying be¬ under the Fourteen abridgec Then there is the dispute with the which exists, might be tolerated but tween Polish and Czech peoples at by the necessities Points, of the Greai Serbs over the Banat. Now the would hardly be sanctioned. That the headwaters of the Oder and the Powers. Banat exists to confute the Four¬ is, it might be left for Rumania to Vistula. A majority of the popula There remains an almost equalh teen Points. It has a population of settle the
Will America Adopt the Armenians? .r-
^
/
New York Tribune
(Copyright,
Special Cable Service 1919. New York Tribuno Inc.)
PARIS, July 12.-Official circles ad-
mit that the sole reason fbr post¬ poning the Turkish problem is the necessity of knowing whether America will accept a mundate for Armenia, Con¬ stantinople and Asia Minor. It is un¬ derstood that before hjs departure
President Wilson told Clemenceau and
Greeks
/ .'--
charge
the Italians with secret¬ the Turks to attack the Greeks. Constantinople is the key to the Turkish problem, and the American answer on the Constantinople mandatp is matter of pressing importance. American officials here formerly were impressed by the argument that the Sultan'g removal from Constantinople would deeply offend the Mussulman
ly pricking
on
Lloyd George that he thought the Ar¬ populations everywhere. They now menian mandate was feasible, but it confess that fuller knowledge destroys The experts and scholars was utterly impossible to offer an this case. opinion in regard to Constantinople who have been consulted declare that Constantinople never has been consid¬ and Asia Minor. ered a sacred place by the Mussulmans, Is
Constantinople to tbe Ke^ Armenian
Problem
representatives here pro. fess that they have reason to be hope¬ ful that America will assume a man¬ date. Meanwhile the urgency of a de¬ cision on the Turkish problem was aecentuatcd with the arrival of news from official sources that the generals commanding three Turkish forces in Asia Minor.the first in Amsia and Sivns, the second in Halikersi, where they confront the Greeks, and the third 'in Konia, where they confront the Itnlians.refuse to obey orders ema¬ nating from Constantinople, thus
Status of Sultan Is Brought Into Question '
Charles,
a
member of the Turkish
serious parliament and a noted authority on Moslem law, declarea: "Medina and <¦ greater alnea the Mecca, the chief centrée of Mahom-
dering immediately possible clashes. The danger
ren-
still less the sacred city of Islam, for it always has retained a Christian character. The Turk never was more than a temporary resident, and it is now urged that the Sultan's departure will result among other benefits in cleansing the city of thousands of unproductive hangers on living at the expense of the population and constituting a serious obstacle to the peace and progress of the Orient.
etanism, always have recognize the religious
refused
to
supremacy of the Sultan, whi'e Mussulman authori¬ ties by their official acts and docu¬ ments avow that Constantinople has preserved its Christian and Hellenic character. When certain Moslems living outside the frontiers of the Otto¬ man empire declare that the removal
"It is necessary at the outset to make a distinction. There will be two different classes of states or communi¬ ties under mandate. There will be, in the words of the covenant, 'those colonies and territories which are inhabited by peoples not yet able to stand by themselves under the strenuous conditions of fthe modern world.' And there will be 'certain .
.
of the Sultan from Constantinople would wound #e susceptibilities of the communities formerly belonging to Turkish Empire which have faithful, it merely means the. persist¬ the reached a stage of development where ence ef the great Panislamic propa¬ their existence as independent nations ganda inaugurated by Abdul Hamid can be provisionally recognized, sub¬ and continued by the Young Turks at ject to the of administrative the kaiser's instigation. The general; advice and rendering assistance a 'nandatary world interest as well as the interest until such time as by are able to they of the powers governing the Mussul¬ stand alone.' German East Africa is man populations demand the removal an obvious instance of the first class, cf the Sultan aAd the liberation of Con¬ Armenia of the secor.d.To allow him to remain stantinople. Thc Duties of u on the Bosporus, either as Sultan or Nation Caliph, would be to recognize a power which even those most particularly "It is clear that the civilized manda¬ concerned never recognized. tary power, whichever it be, in dealing "To lose the opportunity of changing with nr African colony has two main the Sultan's place of residence would duties, Its primary duty is toward the permit the continuance of. a permanent natives of the colony; its secondary danger to the great powers as well as duty is toward the rest of Cue world. "As for the duties of the mandatory to the Christian population 01" the power toward the outside world, they Levant." The thorny problem of colonial man¬ may be summed up in two words.the of the. 'open door.' There dates under, the league of. nations is maintenance must be complete equality of commer¬ discussed by the Paris correspondent of cial rights, as well as of religious "The Manchester Guardian." Be says: rights, for all nations."
Mandatary
disputable.
There remains the dispute be¬ tween the Italians and the Jugo¬ slavs over Fiume and Dalmatia, the merits of which are so well known to my readers that I shall not re¬ peat former analyses here. But it is an element in the larger culcula| tion. Italy is practically outside the Rumania Claims j western alliance now; she feels herAll of the Banat ¡ self badly treated; she resents PresNow the Rumanians claim all the ident Wilson's criticism; she feels, Banat and have to support their not unjustly, that her European alclaim a separate, secret treaty with lies have sided with the President the Western allies. It was a part rather than with her. If Germany of the reward promised them for is sullenly revengeful, Italy is openentering the war. But when they iy dissatisfied; therefore no solution entered they were betrayed, de¬ of the Adriatic problem that she feated and compelled to make a would even consider would do jusseparate peace. Does this invali¬ tice to' Slav rights and no solution date the. pledge given by the which ignores Slav rights can Western allies? At least the Ru¬ manently satisfy the great nationperof manians deny it. But the Serbs southern Slavs, including the best assert this to be the caseT point to fighting race in which is the fact that the population of the destined to rise Europe, on the eastern districts claimed is Serb, and would shores of the Adriatic. Nor can we* vote for union with the new Jugo¬ expect the Greeks ever to slav state, and argue that Mr. Wil¬ definitely the loss of northernaccept Epi¬ son does not recognize secret trea¬ rus or the islands of the .'-gean, ties anyway. Then the Magyar.; which have been Hellenic in history claim the district about Szegedin, since the very beginning of history. which is Hungarian, on the same These circumstances explain Eu¬ ground of self-determination. As ropean despair in the presence of for the Germans, close to half a the problems of peacemaking. million in number, they seem re 'But," my American friends argue, signed to losing in any case. 'the league of nations will arrange If the Western Allies recognize everything.'' But how can the league Serbian claims and fail to accepl of nations reconcile the Serbs to the Rumanian claims in Bessarabia, Ru loss of hundreds of thousands of mania will make an alliance witr Slavs to Italy, the Greeks to the surItaly, which has a dispute with ttu render of nearly half a million HelJugo-Slavs on her hands. More lenes to Italy and Italy's new ward, over, Bulgaria, despite her quarre Albania? And how can the league with Rumania over the Dobrudja of nations reconcile Italy to permit¬ might easily be placated by a prom ting a new Slav state to rise ise of the Macedonian territory across the Adriatic or to consent¬ she has waged three wars to ac¬ ing to the creation of a Greek state quire, and then we should have ; which will doom all her hopes in the new Balkan problem on our hand: Kgean and on the west coast of at once. To suppose that the West Asia Minor, at the precise moment ern powers would go to war agaii when Britain and France, by the to save Serbia is to suppose the new peace, are realizing their aspiimpossible, but this is exactly whi: rations, both in Syria and Mesopowould be necessary if the league oi tamia in Asia and in Egypt and nations were to be preserved at all Morocco in Africa?
I
Problem to Atone For Wrongs Done
Americans See But A
Single Solution
But. if the Serbs are denied their Then, again, the American point part of the Banat, if this injury is of view, influenced by the Fourteen
added to the wrong, the palpable Points, conceives that there is only wrong, already done in the hinter one just solution, and that such a lands of Trieste, where half a mil¬ solution, if reached, will close the lion Slavs have been turned over tc debate. Unhappily, there are fre¬ Italy, and to the probable wrong tc quently at least 'two solutions conbe done, under the terms of the forming to justice as laid down by Anglo-French-Italian secret treatj the Fourteen Points, and in some affecting Dalmatia, then we shal cases, as in the Banat, a situation have exactly the same menace tc where the Fourteen Points have no world peace that Serbia constitutec application, since self-determination from the Congress of Vienna dowr is impossible as a whole, and, if the to the assassination at Serajevo vote of the people be had in the vari¬
when the whole world was em ous districts, commercial ruin will broiled. Moreover, Italy and Ruma result. nia, two Latin states, with strong Finally there is the sympathies and a common enemy point of view, which no European Americanmight easily find a basis of agree k reckons with, the point of view of ment with Germany, looking for al the French and British, who have to lies and necessarily prepared U face the eventuality of a restored trade upon the differences and profi Russia, the certainty of a vengeful by the mistakes of the Paris Peaci Germany and the growing fact of a Conference. thoroughly dissatisfied Italy, whose There is also a Greek complicatioi dissatisfaction grows out of the reto be reckoned with. The Greek: ! jection of claims she holds %just, and Serbs have a treaty of allianci which were agreed to by her allies, against the Bulgarians and Greeci but rejected by President Wilson, in claims the old .Egean coast of Bui j accordance with his views of justice, garia in western Thraee. In addi views which, in the abstract at least, tion, Greece has a quarrel with thi cannot be disputed. If Germany, Russia and Italy Italians affecting northern Epirus the Dodecanesus Islands, witl find a common basis for cooperation Rhodes and the western shore o in upsetting the present settlement Asia Minor, including Smyrna in Europe, where is the force coming Northern Epirus is Greek by right from to defeat them? Certainly but Italy has prevented Greece fron France and Great Britain cannot do occupying it, and now, as th thijä. Even if we sent new millions mandatory of Albania, occupies i to Europe they would hardly arrive herself. The Dodecanesus an I in time to save France from a new Rhodes are Greek speaking, bu invasion. As for the league of naItaly has held them since her Tr: tions. what power has it, outside of politan War. Finally, the wester the power of the nations which eonpowers promised Smyrna to Italj stitute a real part of it, and these but have recently permitted Greec are Britain, France and ourselves? Such briefly, then, is a conspectus to occupy it. Thus the Balkans are beginnin; of some of the remaining problems to divide again, with Greece an< of peace; such is the unfinished before the Paris conference. Jugo-Slavia in ore camp and Ital; business and Rumania in a second, with Bu! ence. garia destined, it would Keem, t (Copyright, 1919, by The McClure Newspaper Syndicate) join the Latin powers. But thi makes a new Eastern question an gives Germany a chance to .selec rfy> Established 1827 ^S«i partners from one pide or the othe while the F'aris Conference, if 143 We.t,42d St. acts justly, must offend at least or cor. 67th St., Broadway, side, and probably. both, and ca Manhattan S0i> Fulton S\, Brooklyn not enforce any decision it m¡ reach in any case since its writ \v not run where it has no armies of Anjr Amount on go and it has no armies ttß flg Pledget of Personal Property
Inc. * f R. Simpson s Co.¿KSKKS
I
LOANS