Moving Average Method.docx

Sales forecasting Technique Moving Average method 1.

The following table shows the calculations for parts (a), (b), and (c).

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6

Time Series Forecast Value Forecast Error 18 13 18 -5 16 13 3 11 16 -5 17 11 6 14 17 -3 Totals

a.

MAE = 22/5 = 4.4

b.

MSE = 104/5 = 20.8

c.

MAPE = 159.38/5 = 31.88

d.

Forecast for week 7 is 14

2.

Absolute Value of Forecast Error

Squared Forecast Error

5 3 5 6 3 22

25 9 25 36 9 104

Percentage Error -38.46 18.75 -45.45 35.29 -21.43 -51.30

Absolute Value of Percentage Error 38.46 18.75 45.45 35.29 21.43 159.38

The following table shows the calculations for parts (a), (b), and (c).

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6

Time Series Forecast Value Forecast Error 18 13 18.00 -5.00 16 15.50 0.50 11 15.67 -4.67 17 14.50 2.50 14 15.00 -1.00 Totals

Absolute Value of Forecast Error

Squared Forecast Error

5.00 0.50 4.67 2.50 1.00 13.67

a.

MAE = 13.67/5 = 2.73

b.

MSE = 54.31/5 = 10.86

c.

MAPE = 105.89/5 = 21.18

d.

Forecast for week 7 is (18 + 13 + 16 + 11 + 17 + 14) / 6 = 14.83

25.00 0.25 21.81 6.25 1.00 54.31

Percentage Error -38.46 3.13 -42.45 14.71 -7.14 -70.21

Absolute Value of Percentage Error 38.46 3.13 42.45 14.71 7.14 105.86