Morning Meeting 20090122

22 Jan. 09 

















United States : The NABH housing market reached its lowest level in January ITALY : THE TRADE BALANCE IS GETTING WORST IN NOVEMBER Stocks were higher on Wednesday on President Obama's first full day on the job

 National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Index since January 2000                    Source : Bloomberg

The NAHB housing market index reached its lowest level at 8 ( prior 9 ) in January meaning that the confidence among U.S. homebuilders is at its lowest level underlining the fact that housing slump will get worst in the upcoming year and will deepened the recession. Financial crisis, tight credit conditions, rise of the unemployment and global recession indicates that the construction sector crisis is in a lasting trend. Indexes

Forex

Price

% 5 Days

Ytd

8228,1

-2,53%

-6,25%

EUR/USD

1,3006

-0,88%

-6,95%

S&P 500

840,2

-3,59%

-6,98%

EUR/JPY

115,91

1,73%

-8,58%

Nasdaq

1507,1

-2,55%

-4,44%

USD/JPY

89,14

0,81%

-1,71%

CAC 40

2905,6

-4,80%

-9,71%

Oil

Price

% 5 Days

Ytd

DAX

4261,2

-3,65%

-11,41%

Brent $/b

43,8

-1,84%

4,60%

Eurostoxx 50

2188,4

-4,75%

-10,59%

Gold

Price

% 5 Days

Ytd

DJ 600 FTSE 100 Nikkei Shanghai Comp Sensex (India)

184,5 4059,9

-4,30% -2,84%

-6,98% -8,44%

Gold $/oz

853,9

4,40%

-3,20%

Rates

USA

Euro

Japan

8051,7 2005,0

-6,36% 2,91%

-9,12% 10,11%

Central Banks* Overnight 3 Months

0,25 0,15

2,00 1,38

0,13 0,13

DJIA

Price

% 5 Days

Ytd

8813,1

-6,31%

-8,65%

MICEX (Russia)

583,4

-4,42%

-5,83%

Bovespa (Brasil)

38542,9

1,48%

2,64%

0,11 1,25 0,23 10 Years** 2,56 3,09 1,24 *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi ** Euro: German Bund rate

Source : Bloomberg

































 The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting, and announces its decision on interest rates. Meeting of the European Union employment and social affairs ministers in the Czech Republic (to January 24) Monthly Bulletin of the ECB Oscar nominations released The Santa Barbara International Film Festival is due to start in California (to February 1). India-ASEAN forum in New Delhi (to January 22nd) North American International Auto Show (Detroit) Jan. 11th – 25 th

   

Time

Country

Indicator

0.50 am 3.00 am 3.00 am 3.00 am 3.00 am 3.00 am 3.00 am 4.00 am 6.00 am 8.45 am 10.00 am 11.00 am 1.00 pm

Japan China China China China China China Japan Japan France Euro area Euro area United States

2.30 pm

United States

2.30 pm 4.00 pm

United States United States

Adjusted merchandise trade balance GDP Annual GDP Producer price index Consumer price index Retail sales Industrial production BoJ target rate Supermarket sales Consumer spending ECM monthly report Industrial new orders Weekly mortgage applications Housing starts Building permits Initial jobless claims House price index

Period

GE forecasts

December 4th quarter 2008 December December December December December December January November January 17th December

0,0 %

625 000

January 17th November

-0,2 %, -0,6 % YoY

605 000 600 000 540 000 -1,2 %

-4,7 %, -15,1 % YoY +15,8 % 625 000 615 000 524 000 -1,1 %





Dividend Colgate Palmolive ($0.40)

Previous

-¥367,6 bn +9,0 % YoY +13,0 % +2,0 % YoY +2,4 % YoY +20,8 % YoY +5,4 % YoY 0,10 % +0,6 % YoY +0,3 %, +1,0 % YoY

-5,0 %, -20,0 % YoY

 Results BBVA / Nokia (11.00 GMT) / ST Micro (after US close) / Fiat / Microsoft / AMD (AMC) / Sun Micro / Google / Lockeed Martin

Consensus

-¥328,5 bn +6,8 % YoY +9,2 % -0,1 % YoY +1,6 % YoY +19,5 % YoY +4,2 % YoY 0,10 %



Cette bombe qui menace les marchés boursiers La Tribune, p.1 Berlin table sur une contraction de 2.25 % du PIB La Tribune, p.6 Les grandes banques françaises bénéficiaires malgré la crise Les Echos, p.1 La caisse des Dépôts pourrait être en perte pour la première fois Les Echos, p.1 Nationalization fears grow as U.K banks sink further The Wall Street Journal, p 32 Oil volatility to stay Financial Times, p 28

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

-2-



























Economic data preview

Today ,watch in the United-states the release of the housing starts for December due at 14.30 am which are expected to be stable but at a very low level , indeed the U.S. households are strongly hit by the credit crunch and by the jump of the unemployment reducing significantly their purchased power and as a consequence hitting the real estate market and the housing starts ./JB

ate

ECONOMY UNITED STATES : THE NABH HOUSING MARKET REACHED ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN JANUARY The NAHB housing market index reached its lowest level at 8 ( prior 9 ) in January meaning that the confidence among U.S. homebuilders is at its lowest level underlining the fact that housing slump will get worst in the upcoming year and will deepened the recession. Financial crisis, tight credit conditions, rise of the unemployment and global recession indicates that the construction sector crisis is in a lasting trend. ITALY : THE TRADE BALANCE IS GETTING WORST IN NOVEMBER Italian economy which was already facing huge structural issues before the global financial turmoil and now global economic recession is particularly hit . Indeed the strong decrease of the demand add to the lake of competitiveness of its product is catastrophic for the Italian external trade. As a matter of fact the trade balance slumped to - €1078.0 millions ( previous -€ 62.0 millions ) and has the recession is deepening ,2009 will be a terrible year for Italian external trade. UNITED KINGDOM: UNEMPLOYMENT IS WORSENING IN JANUARY United -Kingdom economy is strongly hit by the financial turmoil and the by the credit crunch . The country is facing a deep and lasting recession and companies are cutting investments. As a matter of fact claimant count rate increase from 3.3% to 3.6% and jobless claims change are still at a very high level at 77.9 thousand ( prior 83.1 thousand ). In this very difficult economic situation the public sector net credit requirement jumped from £ 8.9 billions to £ 44.2 billions underlining the huge financial needs of the government. On the other hand the M4 money supply rose from 1.2%to 1.7%. To fight the recession the Bank of England decreased its leading rate from 2.00% to 1.5% and only one vote was in favour of a larger cut. /JB

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

-3-



























Stocks were higher on Wednesday on President Obama's first full day on the job

 

Stocks were higher on Wedndesday on President Obama's first full day on the job, indicating a dramatic change in traders' moods since Tuesday's ugly session. The biggest rally came in financials. Bank of America (+30.98%), Citigroup (+31.07%) and JPMorgan Chase (+25.09%) each held substantial gains in afternoon trading, bouncing back as the president met with economic advisors to discuss, among other things, shoring up the nation's banks. Insider buying buoyed Bank of America shares. The sector was upbeat: American Express +8.14 %, Bank of New York +21.05 %, Goldman Sachs +18.07 %, Morgan Stanley +28.70 %. Other financials were on the upside as well: Visa +4.15 %, MasterCard +10.84 %, Ambac +10.20 %, AIG +5.84 %, Allstate +8.11 %, Fannie Mae +17.46 %, Berkshire Hathaway +2.44 %. State Street (-2.53 %) lowered again after Tuesday’s plunge (-59 %). Homebuilders were mixed: DR Horton +4.12 %, Centex -0.20 %. IBM (+11.52 %) actually provided some excitement. The firm caught analysts and traders off guard when it posted a better-than-expected quarter and 2009 guidance well above consensus estimates. IBM said it believes it can capitalize off the downturn by marketing its products as cost-effective. Techs were sharply up (Microsoft +4.87 %, Apple +5.92 %, Hewlett-Packard +5.31 %, Motorola +4.64 %, Symantec +7.52 %, Cisco +4.60 %) such as semiconductors: Nvidia +4.85 %, Intel +3.11 %, AMD +12.50 %, Sun Microsystems +6.84 %, Broadcom +6.00 %. Internet rebounded: Google +7.19 %, Yahoo! +5.27 %, eBay +5.82 %, Amazon.com +4.34 %. Oil companies (ExxonMobil +3.89 %, Chevron +4.28 %, ConocoPhilips +8.08 %, Marathon +7.81 %, Anadarko +5.80 %), oil services (Halliburton +6.68 %, Schlumberger +5.87 %, Noble +11.97 %, Nabors +11.70 %, Baker Hughes +8.77 %) and refiners (Valero +6.63 %, Sunoco +3.99 %) soared. With the exception of Wal-Mart (-2.81 %), retailers were on the upside: J.C. Penney +2.99 %, Target +4.89 %, Sears +3.82 %, Dillards +5.54 %, Kohl’s +4.64 %, Nordstrom +8.49 %, Collective Brands +6.49 %, Office Depot +3.14 %. Pharmaceuticals were mixed: Merck -1.15 %, Pfizer +1.63 %, BMS +3.36 %. Media (Time Warner +5.48 %, Gannett +4.42 %, Walt Disney +4.89 %), transport (Burlington +7.09 %, Union Pacific +7.11 %, FedEx +3.46 %), industrials (Boeing +4.73 %, Deere +5.36 %, Honneywell +2.73 %), hotels & leisure (Las Vegas Sands +10.12 %, Wynn Resorts +6.16 %), consumer stocks (Mc Donald’s +2.86 %, Colgate +1.39 %, Nike +3.44 %) rose. Telcos were mixed: AT&T +3.08 %, Verizon +3.45 %, QWest -1.67 %, Sprint +8.74 %. Airlines nosedived: Delta -8.51 %, AMR -23.71 %, Continental -11.05 %, JetBlue -10.58 %. AFTER SESSION: Apple (+9.5 %) reported Q1 sales and profits that topped analysts’ estimates. eBay (-6.1 %) dropped. The world’s largest internet auctioneer expects to earn as much as 34 cents a share in Q1. That trailed the 39-cent average estimate from analysts. Paypal and Skype helped the overall business. JP Morgan (+3.67 %) rose.

This morning (6.40 GMT) INDEX FUTURES for March expiry were up: DJIA +0.46 %, S&P 500 +0.56 %, Nasdaq +1.48 %./JFV Treasuries fell late Wednesday, pushing 10-year note yields up to the highest in a month, as U.S equity markets held onto some of the morning's gains. Investors expect debt issuance to increase this fiscal year, possibly beyond the $2 trillion already anticipated, as President Barack Obama supports billions of dollars in government programs to revive  the economy. Eyes were on Congress as it decides whether to confirm Timothy Geithner, current head of the New  York Federal Reserve, as treasury secretary (Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.75 %, +4bps, 5-year rate at 1.60 %, +8 bps, 10-year rate at 2.53 %, +11bps, 30-year rate at 3.16 %, +14 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread was flat at -61 bps. /JFV Japan’s markets rose 150.10 or 1.90 % to close at 8,051.74 in Tokyo , increasing after two drop sessions following Wall Street and ignoring the gloomy forecast of the Japanese external trade. Investors ignored bleak forecast of the Japanese central bank which anticipate two years in a row of economic recession. The market was positively impacted by the measures from the central bank aiming to rescue companies facing financing difficulties and measures easing  global financial turmoil. Oil sector went up led by the rebound of the barrel( INPEX+2.84%), component sector went up ( NTT+7.04%,Tokyo electron +3.73%,Nec+3.45%), financials went up ( Nomura+4.73%,Credit Saison  +3.72%),Distribution sector went up ( Fast retailing +7.50%,Seven&Holdings+3.59%), Telecom sector went significantly up ( KDDI+4.54%,Trend micro+3.46%) On the other hand car sector went down ( Toyota-4.20%,Mazda-3.95%,Honda-3.36%)and electronic sector went slightly down( Sony-2.56%,Pionner1.69%,Canon -1.65%)./JB Crude oil prices surged on concerns OPEC oil cartel could cut again their production quota and ahead of the inventories data released today. The Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package also drove the prices higher on hopes it would boost demand. Note that the market is still in a contango situation in which the prices of a short-term  future is worth less than a long-term. The WTI climbed 9.06 % at $42.25 a barrel while crude oil for March delivery ended above $43 level at $43.55/bbl . The Brent that rose 4.12 % yesterday at $44.40 a barrel was losing ground this morning at $43.43/bbl. The US futures one-month were slightly down 0.18% at $43.47 (7.10 am GMT). /LC The yen rose for a fourth day against the pound, approaching a record high, on speculation the deepening financial crisis will force the U.K. government to nationalize banks (123.39 GBP/JPY). The yen also versus the euro and the  dollar. The pound approached a 23-year low versus the dollar as the BoE may cut rates again next month (1.3024 EUR/USD vs. 1.2956 yesterday morning, 116.12 EUR/JPY vs. 116.41, 89.16 USD/JPY vs. 89.85). /JFV

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

-4-

Europe Indices EuroStoxx 50 DJ 600 FTSE 100 DAX (XETRA) CAC 40 AEX (Pays Bas) SMI (Suisse) S&P / MIB (Italie) IBEX 35 (Esp.) BVL (Portugal)











America

% Chg -0,56% -0,64% -0,77% +0,50% -0,67% -1,00% -0,32% -2,07% -0,55% -1,03%

Indices DJIA S&P 500 NASDAQ TSX Bolsa (Mexico) Bovespa (Br.) Merval (Argent.) IPSA (Chili) IGBVL (Pérou)

        

21/1/09 8228 840 1507 8758 19497 38543 1063 11782 6965





% Chg +3,51% +4,35% +4,60% +2,97% +1,48% +3,41% +1,73% +1,48% -0,39%

Source : Bloomberg



 Asia         

India



22/1/09 % Chg 8052 +1,90% 796 +1,11% 12800 +1,79% 1730 +1,62% 1116 +1,14% 441 +2,32% 1323 +0,23% CLOSED 2005

+1,00%

8798

+0,39%

Dow Jones

Nikkei 225

CITIGROUP INC

MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE 8,97 GR NITTO BOSEKI CO LTD -7,26

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

UP

DOWN



Indices Nikkei Topix Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Thailand Indonesia Taiwan China

% % Dow Jones 31,07 WAL-MART STORES-2,81 INC ALSTOM 5,66 MUENCHENER RUECKVER -3,15 AG-REG JPMORGAN CHASE25,10 & CO MERCK & CO. INC. -1,15 CREDIT AGRICOLE SA 4,63 SANOFI-AVENTIS -3,12 INTL BUSINESS MACHINES 11,52 CORPALTRIA GROUP INC -1,11 DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED 3,92 GDF SUEZ -3,02 AMERICAN EXPRESS8,14 CO JOHNSON & JOHNSON -0,69 PHILIPS ELECTRONICS 3,91 NV ENI SPA -2,93 AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL 5,84 GROUP UNITED TECHNOLOGIES -0,22 CORP %

INTESA SANPAOLO -5,26

DOWN

Euro Stoxx 50

%

SOCIETE GENERALE 10,29

UP



UP

Euro Stoxx 50

         

21/1/09 2188 185 4060 4261 2906 238 5304 18554 8231 2051



Nikkei 225

%

FAST RETAILING CO7,50 LTD

%

YOKOHAMA RUBBER -5,32 CO LTD 7,04 CLARION CO LTD -4,84 JGC CORP 6,92 FUJI HEAVY INDUSTRIES -4,76 LTD DAIWA SECURITIES GROUP 6,84 INC TOYOTA MOTOR CORP -4,20 NTT DATA CORP

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

DOWN



-5-













 MORRISON : Chrismas LFL sales ex-fuel up 8.2% (+7.6% exp) / Expectations for the FY profit outturn for 2008/09 remain unchanged POSTBANK : Soffin hasn't received an application for aid from DPB (Source) HYPO REAL ESTATE may have to agree to split off DEPFA BANK to avoid collapse (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung ) IRISH LIFE PERMANENT is still planning to raise €1bn through a bond sale as soon as markets stabilize (CEO) APPLE : Q1 sales $10.17bn (9.75bn e) / EPS $1.78 (1.39 e) but sales of the iPhone fell sharply in OctoberDecember from the previous quarter to 4.3 m phones (5m exp) / Sees Q2 EPS $0.90-1.00 (1.13 e) with sales $7.6-8bn ($8.20bn e) / Up 8% after close JPM: CEO Jamie Dimon bought 500k shares at $22.92 per share on Jan. 16. ($11.5m)

 CREDIT AGRICOLE (Yesterday) prices 1.25bn 2016 bond , 4.5% at SWAPS +135bp (Source) / Separately, Agricultural Bank of China would be in talks to introduce Credit Agricole as a strategic investor before its planned US$25.6 bn listing in 2010 (HK Economic Times) KBC has reached agreement with the Flemish regional government for a non-dilutive, core capital injection of €2 bn with right to issue further €1.5bn of core capital to flemish Govt for at least 5 years / Writedowns on CDO €2.5bn / Q4 derivative loss of €200m FIAT : The Exor holding company of Agnelli family is weighing a possible capital increase of about €2 bn for Fiat (La Repubblica) / The capital hike would be aimed at keeping a significant stake in a merged company in case of an alliance with Peugeot … CREDIT SUISSE had its long-term senior debt rating placed on “watch negative” by Fitch UBS ’s individual rating was downgraded by Fitch and placed on “rating watch negative.” EBAY : Q4 revenue $2.04bn (2.12bn e) / EPS $0.41 (0.39 e) / Sees Q1 EPS $0.32-0.34 (0.40 e)with rev. $1.80-2.05bn (2.10bn e) TSMC : Q4 sales NT$64.56 bn (66.5bn exp) / GM 31.3% / Operating margin 18.6% (25% exp) / Sees Q1 GM between 1-5% LG ELECTRONICS : Q4 operating loss W309.8bn (-201bn e) / Sold 25.7m mobile phonesin the Q4 vs 23m units in the Q3 SONY forecast a much bigger-than-expected annual operating loss due to “a sharp appreciation in the yen, steep price falls and restructuring costs” = Now expects an operating loss of 260bn yen for the year ending March 31 (+9bn yen exp) / Conf call 0830 GMT

 ADECCO RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL BY GOLDMAN SACHS BEST BUY RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY DEUTSCHE BANK ERICSSON RAISED TO BUY FROM REDUCE BY NOMURA ERICSSON RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL BY GOLDMAN SACHS S&P DOWNGRADES LAFARGE TO BBB OUTLOOK STILL NEGATIVE LOGITECH CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP H&M CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL BY JP MORGAN ERAMET CUT TO UNDERPERFORM BY MERRILL LYNCH

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

-6-







 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 22/01/2007









6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1

22/07/2007

22/01/2008

22/07/2008

22/01/2009

22/01/2007

22/07/2007

22/01/2008

22/07/2008

Source : Bloomberg

Source : Bloomberg

5,5 5,25 5 4,75 4,5 4,25 4 3,75 3,5 3,25 3 2,75 2,5 2,25 2 22/01/2007



1,2



1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,6 -0,8 22/07/2007

22/01/2008

22/07/2008

22/01/2009

-1 22/01/2007

22/07/2007

22/01/2008

22/07/2008

Source : Bloomberg



150

22/01/2009

Source : Bloomberg

1,65

140



1,6

130

1,55

120

1,5

110 100

1,45

90

1,4

80

1,35

70 60

1,3

50

1,25

40 30 22/01/2007

22/01/2009

1,2 22/07/2007

22/01/2008

22/07/2008

22/01/2009

22/01/2007

22/07/2007

22/01/2008

Source : Bloomberg

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

22/07/2008

22/01/2009

Source : Bloomberg

-7-





















   

       

 

 













   

      

  

  

   

 

 

 Small & Mid Caps Junior Financial Analyst

























     Jean de HENNEZEL









                

                                       

                

                

  

  

 

 









      

         

     

     



        













       

                

      









 

  

 

 





    

    

    









      

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com

-8-