Monte Carlo Simulation And Investment

Monte Carlo Simulation and Investment Appraisal for  Metropolitan Movies Studio Ltd Metropolitan Movies Studio Ltd is considering investing in a new up­class cinema  hall   to   be   located   at   a   new   upmarket   shopping   mall.   Expenditure   on   movies   in  developing   countries   is   a   consumer   discretionary   that   depend   on   households  disposable, economic growth, political risks, and other factors that are difficult to  predict, a Monte Carlo simulation is to be run in determining the viability of the  project.  The following data is available. Initial Investment

Sh.250,000,000

Cash Flow (CF) in Periods 1 & 2

Range between Sh.36,000,000   and Sh.108,000,000   

Cash Flow (CF) in Periods 3 & 4

Range between Sh.30,000,000   and Sh.90,000,000   

Cost of Goods Sold and Operating  Expenses (Common Size %)

35%

Fixed Cost (Depreciation) Tax Rate Required Rate of Return  Terminal Value at end of year 4 

Sh.6,000,000 per year 30% 12%  Range between Sh.100,000,000   and Sh.300,000,000   

The management of Metropolitan Movies Studio Ltd runs a 100 iteration net present  value analysis to simulate the probable distribution of the project’s net present value.  On the basis of this analysis management will make a decision on the viability of the  proposed project.  Exhibit 1 shows the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. Figure 1 shows the  probability distribution if the simulated net present values. Figure 2 shows the  cumulative probability of the simulated net present values. Exhibit 2 shows the 100  net present value iterations. A positive net present value is expected 32% of the time.  This means under current forecasts and assumptions, the proposed project has a 32%  chance of success and therefore is not viable. 

William M. Kinai ([email protected]; +254 020 2323 858) is the founder and principal of Concert Management Consulting, a firm that provides business assessment, business planning, interim management, and executive training services to growing businesses and nonprofit organizations in the East African region including Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. Copyright © 2009 William M. Kinai. This article may be reprinted free of charge in any publication or website provided that the article is unedited, and that the copyright, author's bio, and contact information appears with each reproduction and/or posting.

Monte Carlo Simulation and Investment Appraisal

Exhibit 1: Probability Analysis Class

Class Intervals

Observations

Probability

Cumulative

Cumulative

Observations

Probability

Lower Limit

Upper Limit

1

(100,925,308.38)

(85,950,383.21)

7.00

0.07

7.00

0.07

2

(85,950,383.21)

(70,975,458.04)

11.00

0.11

18.00

0.18

3

(70,975,458.04)

(56,000,532.87)

11.00

0.11

29.00

0.29

4

(56,000,532.87)

(41,025,607.70)

12.00

0.12

41.00

0.41

5

(41,025,607.70)

(26,050,682.53)

12.00

0.12

53.00

0.53

6

(26,050,682.53)

(11,075,757.36)

11.00

0.11

64.00

0.64

7

(11,075,757.36)

3,899,167.81

9.00

0.09

73.00

0.73

8

3,899,167.81

18,874,092.98

9.00

0.09

82.00

0.82

9

18,874,092.98

33,849,018.15

14.00

0.14

96.00

0.96

10

33,849,018.15

48,823,943.32

4.00

0.04

100.00

1.00

100.00

1.00

Observations

Probability

Negative NPV

68.00

0.68

Positive NPV

32.00

0.32

100.00

1.00

Figure 1: Pro babilit y 0.16 0.14

0.14

Pro bability

0.12

0.11

0.11

0.12

0.12

0.11

0.10 0.08

0.09

0.09

0.07

0.06 0.04

0.04 0.02 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Class

2

Monte Carlo Simulation and Investment Appraisal

Figure 2: Cumulait ve Pro bailit y o f t he Simulat ed Net Present Values 60,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

N e t Pre se nt Value

0

-20,000,000

-40,000,000

-60,000,000

-80,000,000

-100,000,000

-120,000,000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 4244 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98100 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

Cumulat ive Pro b ab ilit y

3

Exhibit 2: Net Present Value Simulations Iteration

Cash Flow 

1 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

106846541.2 77146793.75 63913862.33 38817085.85 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

2 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

46841622.9 51790859.48 32236835.43 82501380.44 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

3 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

90032702.23 53875748.91 38653193.76 48359637.54 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­37396289.43 ­6000000 63450251.8 ­19035075.54 44415176.26 6000000 50415176.26 0.892857143 45013550.24 ­27001377.81 ­6000000 44145415.93 ­13243624.78 30901791.15 6000000 36901791.15 0.797193878 29417881.98 ­22369851.82 ­6000000 35544010.52 ­10663203.16 24880807.36 6000000 30880807.36 0.711780248 21980348.72 ­13585980.05 ­6000000 19231105.81 ­5769331.742 13461774.06 6000000 19461774.06 0.635518078 12368309.26

­250000000

1

­250000000

233769206.1

0.635518078

148564556.6 7344646.822

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­16394568.02 ­6000000 24447054.89 ­7334116.466 17112938.42 6000000 23112938.42 0.892857143 20636552.16 ­18126800.82 ­6000000 27664058.66 ­8299217.598 19364841.06 6000000 25364841.06 0.797193878 20220696 ­11282892.4 ­6000000 14953943.03 ­4486182.909 10467760.12 6000000 16467760.12 0.711780248 11721426.38 ­28875483.15 ­6000000 47625897.28 ­14287769.19 33338128.1 6000000 39338128.1 0.635518078 25000091.58

­250000000

1

­250000000

115053140

0.635518078

73118350.42 ­99302883.46

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­31511445.78 ­6000000 52521256.45 ­15756376.94 36764879.52 6000000 42764879.52 0.892857143 38182928.14 ­18856512.12 ­6000000 29019236.79 ­8705771.037 20313465.75 6000000 26313465.75 0.797193878 20976933.8 ­13528617.82 ­6000000 19124575.94 ­5737372.783 13387203.16 6000000 19387203.16 0.711780248 13799428.27 ­16925873.14 ­6000000 25433764.4 ­7630129.321 17803635.08 6000000 23803635.08 0.635518078 15127640.43

­250000000

1

­250000000

193010666.3

0.635518078

122661767.8 ­39251301.59

4

Iteration

Cash Flow 

4 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

104131701.9 54024752.86 63629701.23 87872584.94 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

5 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

69839979.51 54217017.63 78548668.46 67373142.72 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

6 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

Iteration

1 2 3 4

60986623.85 105646734.8 56012944.54 88914315.45 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value Cash Flow 

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­36446095.65 ­6000000 61685606.21 ­18505681.86 43179924.35 6000000 49179924.35 0.892857143 43910646.74 ­18908663.5 ­6000000 29116089.36 ­8734826.808 20381262.55 6000000 26381262.55 0.797193878 21030980.99 ­22270395.43 ­6000000 35359305.8 ­10607791.74 24751514.06 6000000 30751514.06 0.711780248 21888320.3 ­30755404.73 ­6000000 51117180.21 ­15335154.06 35782026.15 6000000 41782026.15 0.635518078 26553232.97

­250000000

1

­250000000

226991410.4

0.635518078

144257144.9 7640325.916

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­24443992.83 ­6000000 39395986.68 ­11818796 27577190.68 6000000 33577190.68 0.892857143 29979634.53 ­18975956.17 ­6000000 29241061.46 ­8772318.437 20468743.02 6000000 26468743.02 0.797193878 21100719.88 ­27492033.96 ­6000000 45056634.5 ­13516990.35 31539644.15 6000000 37539644.15 0.711780248 26719977.22 ­23580599.95 ­6000000 37792542.77 ­11337762.83 26454779.94 6000000 32454779.94 0.635518078 20625599.38

­250000000

1

­250000000

163801604

0.635518078

104098880.6 ­47475188.37

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­21345318.35 ­6000000 33641305.5 ­10092391.65 23548913.85 6000000 29548913.85 0.892857143 26382958.8 ­36976357.18 ­6000000 62670377.62 ­18801113.29 43869264.34 6000000 49869264.34 0.797193878 39755472.21 ­19604530.59 ­6000000 30408413.95 ­9122524.184 21285889.76 6000000 27285889.76 0.711780248 19421557.38 ­31120010.41 ­6000000 51794305.04 ­15538291.51 36256013.53 6000000 42256013.53 0.635518078 26854460.52

­250000000

1

­250000000

105439135.3

0.635518078

67008476.65 ­70577074.45

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax ating Expenses 

Taxation @  30%

Net profit after  Add back: de­ tax preciation

Net cash flow

PVF @ 12%

Present value

Net  Present  Value

5

7 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

41786812.73 76362497.13 68162241.94 80941579.75 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

8 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

101144375.4 50301109.74 51763483.39 40659235.68 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

9 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

62762940.47 63115391.09 73588218.02 85375244.6 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 10 Year  Year  Year 

­14625384.46 ­26726873.99 ­23856784.68 ­28329552.91

­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000

21161428.27 43635623.13 38305457.26 46612026.84

­6348428.482 ­13090686.94 ­11491637.18 ­13983608.05

14812999.79 30544936.19 26813820.08 32628418.79

6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000

20812999.79 36544936.19 32813820.08 38628418.79

0.892857143 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078

18583035.53 29133399.39 23356228.99 24549058.48

­250000000

1

­250000000

182494625.4

0.635518078

115978633.7 ­38399643.95

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­35400531.37 ­6000000 59743843.98 ­17923153.19 41820690.79 6000000 47820690.79 0.892857143 42697045.35 ­17605388.41 ­6000000 26695721.33 ­8008716.399 18687004.93 6000000 24687004.93 0.797193878 19680329.19 ­18117219.19 ­6000000 27646264.2 ­8293879.26 19352384.94 6000000 25352384.94 0.711780248 18045326.84 ­14230732.49 ­6000000 20428503.19 ­6128550.958 14299952.23 6000000 20299952.23 0.635518078 12900986.64

­250000000

1

­250000000

158973428.1

0.635518078

101030487.5 ­55645824.48

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­21967029.17 ­6000000 34795911.31 ­10438773.39 24357137.92 6000000 30357137.92 0.892857143 27104587.42 ­22090386.88 ­6000000 35025004.21 ­10507501.26 24517502.95 6000000 30517502.95 0.797193878 24328366.51 ­25755876.31 ­6000000 41832341.71 ­12549702.51 29282639.2 6000000 35282639.2 0.711780248 25113485.67 ­29881335.61 ­6000000 49493908.99 ­14848172.7 34645736.29 6000000 40645736.29 0.635518078 25831100.23

­250000000

1

­250000000

201673881.5

0.635518078

128167397.7 ­19455062.5

Cash Flow  1 2 3

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  40437922.72 ­14153272.95 ­6000000 20284649.77 ­6085394.93 14199254.84 6000000 20199254.84 0.892857143 18035048.96 96137221.91 ­33648027.67 ­6000000 56489194.24 ­16946758.27 39542435.97 6000000 45542435.97 0.797193878 36306151.12 55389582.39 ­19386353.84 ­6000000 30003228.56 ­9000968.567 21002259.99 6000000 27002259.99 0.711780248 19219675.31

6

Year 

Year  Year 

4

34984744.39 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

11 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

52731270.74 60045873.66 76617639.94 68839275.46 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

12 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

94168089 55774629.91 35522409.16 61737612.61 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 13 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Cash Flow  1 2 3 4

67086168.52 97397476.59 37625272.07 48032594.08 Other Cash  Flows:

­12244660.54

­6000000

16740083.85

­5022025.156

11718058.7

6000000

17718058.7

0.635518078

11260146.62

­250000000

1

­250000000

197610611.9

0.635518078

125585116.4 ­39593861.62

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­18455944.76 ­6000000 28275325.98 ­8482597.795 19792728.19 6000000 25792728.19 0.892857143 23029221.6 ­21016055.78 ­6000000 33029817.88 ­9908945.363 23120872.51 6000000 29120872.51 0.797193878 23214981.28 ­26816173.98 ­6000000 43801465.96 ­13140439.79 30661026.17 6000000 36661026.17 0.711780248 26094594.29 ­24093746.41 ­6000000 38745529.05 ­11623658.71 27121870.33 6000000 33121870.33 0.635518078 21049547.39

­250000000

1

­250000000

246758957.3

0.635518078

156819778.4 208122.9104

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32958831.15 ­6000000 55209257.85 ­16562777.36 38646480.5 6000000 44646480.5 0.892857143 39862929.01 ­19521120.47 ­6000000 30253509.44 ­9076052.832 21177456.61 6000000 27177456.61 0.797193878 21665702.01 ­12432843.21 ­6000000 17089565.96 ­5126869.787 11962696.17 6000000 17962696.17 0.711780248 12785492.33 ­21608164.42 ­6000000 34129448.2 ­10238834.46 23890613.74 6000000 29890613.74 0.635518078 18996025.41

­250000000

1

­250000000

209042050.3

0.635518078

132850002.1 ­23839849.14

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­23480158.98 ­6000000 37606009.54 ­11281802.86 26324206.68 6000000 32324206.68 0.892857143 28860898.82 ­34089116.81 ­6000000 57308359.79 ­17192507.94 40115851.85 6000000 46115851.85 0.797193878 36763274.75 ­13168845.23 ­6000000 18456426.85 ­5536928.055 12919498.79 6000000 18919498.79 0.711780248 13466525.54 ­16811407.93 ­6000000 25221186.15 ­7566355.845 17654830.31 6000000 23654830.31 0.635518078 15033072.3

7

Year  Year 

0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

14 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

70377920.73 64983835.71 60550747.02 62343372.78 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

15 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

98803580.86 57673503.3 78721774.68 60557521.97 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

16 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

94193001.71 107227301.5 32457260.44 75546317.84 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value 

­250000000

1

­250000000

281995990.7

0.635518078

179213550.1 23337321.52

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­24632272.26 ­6000000 39745648.48 ­11923694.54 27821953.93 6000000 33821953.93 0.892857143 30198173.15 ­22744342.5 ­6000000 36239493.21 ­10871847.96 25367645.25 6000000 31367645.25 0.797193878 25006094.75 ­21192761.46 ­6000000 33357985.57 ­10007395.67 23350589.9 6000000 29350589.9 0.711780248 20891170.15 ­21820180.47 ­6000000 34523192.31 ­10356957.69 24166234.61 6000000 30166234.61 0.635518078 19171187.45

­250000000

1

­250000000

141812655.8

0.635518078

90124506.5 ­64608868

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­34581253.3 ­6000000 58222327.56 ­17466698.27 40755629.29 6000000 46755629.29 0.892857143 41746097.58 ­20185726.16 ­6000000 31487777.15 ­9446333.144 22041444 6000000 28041444 0.797193878 22354467.48 ­27552621.14 ­6000000 45169153.54 ­13550746.06 31618407.48 6000000 37618407.48 0.711780248 26776039.4 ­21195132.69 ­6000000 33362389.28 ­10008716.78 23353672.5 6000000 29353672.5 0.635518078 18654789.54

­250000000

1

­250000000

291421483.1

0.635518078

185203621 44735014.96

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32967550.6 ­6000000 55225451.11 ­16567635.33 38657815.78 6000000 44657815.78 0.892857143 39873049.8 ­37529555.54 ­6000000 63697746 ­19109323.8 44588422.2 6000000 50588422.2 0.797193878 40328780.46 ­11360041.15 ­6000000 15097219.29 ­4529165.786 10568053.5 6000000 16568053.5 0.711780248 11792813.23 ­26441211.24 ­6000000 43105106.6 ­12931531.98 30173574.62 6000000 36173574.62 0.635518078 22988960.63

­250000000

1

­250000000

256449066

0.635518078

162978017.6

8

Net  Present  Value Iteration

Cash Flow 

17 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

50524664.3 70789714.06 41506732.72 85455522.72 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

18 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

42749723.05 99538000.64 59832445.72 32394713.59 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

19 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

48570082.16 76280344.68 58875859.46 36274489.55 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

27961621.73

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­17683632.51 ­6000000 26841031.8 ­8052309.539 18788722.26 6000000 24788722.26 0.892857143 22132787.73 ­24776399.92 ­6000000 40013314.14 ­12003994.24 28009319.9 6000000 34009319.9 0.797193878 27112021.6 ­14527356.45 ­6000000 20979376.27 ­6293812.88 14685563.39 6000000 20685563.39 0.711780248 14723575.43 ­29909432.95 ­6000000 49546089.77 ­14863826.93 34682262.84 6000000 40682262.84 0.635518078 25854313.5

­250000000

1

­250000000

121068892.4

0.635518078

76941469.87 ­83235831.86

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­14962403.07 ­6000000 21787319.98 ­6536195.994 15251123.99 6000000 21251123.99 0.892857143 18974217.84 ­34838300.23 ­6000000 58699700.42 ­17609910.13 41089790.29 6000000 47089790.29 0.797193878 37539692.52 ­20941356 ­6000000 32891089.72 ­9867326.915 23023762.8 6000000 29023762.8 0.711780248 20658541.08 ­11338149.76 ­6000000 15056563.83 ­4516969.15 10539594.68 6000000 16539594.68 0.635518078 10511211.43

­250000000

1

­250000000

269311654.7

0.635518078

171152425.3 8836088.155

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­16999528.76 ­6000000 25570553.41 ­7671166.022 17899387.38 6000000 23899387.38 0.892857143 21338738.74 ­26698120.64 ­6000000 43582224.04 ­13074667.21 30507556.83 6000000 36507556.83 0.797193878 29103600.79 ­20606550.81 ­6000000 32269308.65 ­9680792.595 22588516.06 6000000 28588516.06 0.711780248 20348741.04 ­12696071.34 ­6000000 17578418.21 ­5273525.462 12304892.74 6000000 18304892.74 0.635518078 11633090.26

­250000000

1

­250000000

104875884.8

0.635518078

66650520.79 ­100925308.4

9

Iteration

Cash Flow 

20 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

83089183.87 98612577.87 40790786.53 32736998.38 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

21 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

68002659.18 64789217.45 66546874.68 36602991.57 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

22 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

Iteration

1 2 3 4

60997653.93 96578019.52 61741119.32 31278577.93 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value Cash Flow 

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­29081214.35 ­6000000 48007969.51 ­14402390.85 33605578.66 6000000 39605578.66 0.892857143 35362123.8 ­34514402.25 ­6000000 58098175.62 ­17429452.68 40668722.93 6000000 46668722.93 0.797193878 37204020.19 ­14276775.29 ­6000000 20514011.25 ­6154203.374 14359807.87 6000000 20359807.87 0.711780248 14491709.09 ­11457949.43 ­6000000 15279048.95 ­4583714.685 10695334.26 6000000 16695334.26 0.635518078 10610186.75

­250000000

1

­250000000

158710064

0.635518078

100863114.9 ­51468845.28

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­23800930.71 ­6000000 38201728.46 ­11460518.54 26741209.93 6000000 32741209.93 0.892857143 29233223.15 ­22676226.11 ­6000000 36112991.34 ­10833897.4 25279093.94 6000000 31279093.94 0.797193878 24935502.18 ­23291406.14 ­6000000 37255468.54 ­11176640.56 26078827.98 6000000 32078827.98 0.711780248 22833076.13 ­12811047.05 ­6000000 17791944.52 ­5337583.355 12454361.16 6000000 18454361.16 0.635518078 11728080.14

­250000000

1

­250000000

126916921.2

0.635518078

80657997.89 ­80612120.51

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­21349178.88 ­6000000 33648475.06 ­10094542.52 23553932.54 6000000 29553932.54 0.892857143 26387439.77 ­33802306.83 ­6000000 56775712.69 ­17032713.81 39742998.88 6000000 45742998.88 0.797193878 36466038.65 ­21609391.76 ­6000000 34131727.56 ­10239518.27 23892209.29 6000000 29892209.29 0.711780248 21276684.14 ­10947502.27 ­6000000 14331075.65 ­4299322.696 10031752.96 6000000 16031752.96 0.635518078 10188468.83

­250000000

1

­250000000

157706517.9

0.635518078

100225343.2 ­55456025.39

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax ating Expenses 

Taxation @  30%

Net profit after  Add back: de­ tax preciation

Net cash flow

PVF @ 12%

Present value

Net  Present  Value

10

23 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

83506985.08 61266451.27 43234805.26 63045144.42 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

24 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

94615590.82 100975748.7 74169309.61 44485131.49 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

25 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

86439258.52 40709669.98 31889291.14 51780021.54 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 26 Year  Year  Year 

­29227444.78 ­21443257.94 ­15132181.84 ­22065800.55

­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000

48279540.3 33823193.32 22102623.42 34979343.87

­14483862.09 ­10146958 ­6630787.026 ­10493803.16

33795678.21 23676235.33 15471836.39 24485540.71

6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000

39795678.21 29676235.33 21471836.39 30485540.71

0.892857143 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078

35531855.55 23657713.11 15283229.03 19374112.25

­250000000

1

­250000000

281434073.5

0.635518078

178856441.6 22703351.5

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­33115456.79 ­6000000 55500134.03 ­16650040.21 38850093.82 6000000 44850093.82 0.892857143 40044726.63 ­35341512.04 ­6000000 59634236.64 ­17890270.99 41743965.65 6000000 47743965.65 0.797193878 38061197.11 ­25959258.36 ­6000000 42210051.25 ­12663015.37 29547035.87 6000000 35547035.87 0.711780248 25301678 ­15569796.02 ­6000000 22915335.47 ­6874600.64 16040734.83 6000000 22040734.83 0.635518078 14007285.44

­250000000

1

­250000000

240711022.4

0.635518078

152976206.4 20391093.59

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­30253740.48 ­6000000 50185518.04 ­15055655.41 35129862.63 6000000 41129862.63 0.892857143 36723091.63 ­14248384.49 ­6000000 20461285.49 ­6138385.646 14322899.84 6000000 20322899.84 0.797193878 16201291.33 ­11161251.9 ­6000000 14728039.24 ­4418411.773 10309627.47 6000000 16309627.47 0.711780248 11608870.68 ­18123007.54 ­6000000 27657014 ­8297104.201 19359909.8 6000000 25359909.8 0.635518078 16116681.15

­250000000

1

­250000000

221058779.9

0.635518078

140486851 ­28863214.21

Cash Flow  1 2 3

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  52910684.73 ­18518739.65 ­6000000 28391945.07 ­8517583.521 19874361.55 6000000 25874361.55 0.892857143 23102108.53 90527658.57 ­31684680.5 ­6000000 52842978.07 ­15852893.42 36990084.65 6000000 42990084.65 0.797193878 34271432.28 76309310.06 ­26708258.52 ­6000000 43601051.54 ­13080315.46 30520736.08 6000000 36520736.08 0.711780248 25994738.58

11

Year 

Year  Year 

4

87393045.04 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

27 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

37731529.7 60791734.5 76371693.05 68994159.36 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

28 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

39554634.23 88407883.61 83357724.42 34381740.22 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 29 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Cash Flow  1 2 3 4

57768742.2 59117267.92 73291321.19 41674298.72 Other Cash  Flows:

­30587565.76

­6000000

50805479.28

­15241643.78

35563835.49

6000000

41563835.49

0.635518078

26414568.86

­250000000

1

­250000000

297459822.9

0.635518078

189041095.1 48823943.32

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­13206035.39 ­6000000 18525494.3 ­5557648.291 12967846.01 6000000 18967846.01 0.892857143 16935576.8 ­21277107.07 ­6000000 33514627.42 ­10054388.23 23460239.2 6000000 29460239.2 0.797193878 23485522.32 ­26730092.57 ­6000000 43641600.48 ­13092480.14 30549120.34 6000000 36549120.34 0.711780248 26014941.93 ­24147955.77 ­6000000 38846203.58 ­11653861.07 27192342.51 6000000 33192342.51 0.635518078 21094333.73

­250000000

1

­250000000

128703013.5

0.635518078

81793091.81 ­80676533.42

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­13844121.98 ­6000000 19710512.25 ­5913153.675 13797358.57 6000000 19797358.57 0.892857143 17676213.01 ­30942759.26 ­6000000 51465124.34 ­15439537.3 36025587.04 6000000 42025587.04 0.797193878 33502540.69 ­29175203.55 ­6000000 48182520.87 ­14454756.26 33727764.61 6000000 39727764.61 0.711780248 28277438.14 ­12033609.08 ­6000000 16348131.15 ­4904439.344 11443691.8 6000000 17443691.8 0.635518078 11085781.49

­250000000

1

­250000000

282593358.6

0.635518078

179593188.2 20135161.55

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­20219059.77 ­6000000 31549682.43 ­9464904.73 22084777.7 6000000 28084777.7 0.892857143 25075694.38 ­20691043.77 ­6000000 32426224.15 ­9727867.244 22698356.9 6000000 28698356.9 0.797193878 22878154.42 ­25651962.42 ­6000000 41639358.77 ­12491807.63 29147551.14 6000000 35147551.14 0.711780248 25017332.66 ­14586004.55 ­6000000 21088294.17 ­6326488.251 14761805.92 6000000 20761805.92 0.635518078 13194503

12

Year  Year 

0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

30 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

41422845.66 40521126.92 85350920.36 62332869.3 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

31 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

84975258.08 74533519.73 55658959.22 73372913.19 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

32 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

44346031.64 48048737.04 81292204.32 51969264.23 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value 

­250000000

1

­250000000

211687119.4

0.635518078

134530991.3 ­29303324.2

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­14497995.98 ­6000000 20924849.68 ­6277454.904 14647394.78 6000000 20647394.78 0.892857143 18435173.91 ­14182394.42 ­6000000 20338732.5 ­6101619.749 14237112.75 6000000 20237112.75 0.797193878 16132902.38 ­29872822.13 ­6000000 49478098.23 ­14843429.47 34634668.76 6000000 40634668.76 0.711780248 28922954.6 ­21816504.25 ­6000000 34516365.04 ­10354909.51 24161455.53 6000000 30161455.53 0.635518078 19168150.26

­250000000

1

­250000000

290409363.5

0.635518078

184560400.7 17219581.81

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­29741340.33 ­6000000 49233917.75 ­14770175.32 34463742.42 6000000 40463742.42 0.892857143 36128341.45 ­26086731.91 ­6000000 42446787.83 ­12734036.35 29712751.48 6000000 35712751.48 0.797193878 28469986.83 ­19480635.73 ­6000000 30178323.49 ­9053497.047 21124826.44 6000000 27124826.44 0.711780248 19306915.69 ­25680519.62 ­6000000 41692393.57 ­12507718.07 29184675.5 6000000 35184675.5 0.635518078 22360497.36

­250000000

1

­250000000

218700830.8

0.635518078

138988331.7 ­4745926.935

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­15521111.07 ­6000000 22824920.56 ­6847476.169 15977444.39 6000000 21977444.39 0.892857143 19622718.21 ­16817057.97 ­6000000 25231679.08 ­7569503.723 17662175.35 6000000 23662175.35 0.797193878 18863341.32 ­28452271.51 ­6000000 46839932.81 ­14051979.84 32787952.97 6000000 38787952.97 0.711780248 27608498.77 ­18189242.48 ­6000000 27780021.75 ­8334006.525 19446015.22 6000000 25446015.22 0.635518078 16171402.7

­250000000

1

­250000000

173622516.9

0.635518078

110340248.3

13

Net  Present  Value Iteration

Cash Flow 

33 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

69169820.94 50296780.93 55238052.85 76655252.84 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

34 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

75329389.57 66585585.89 77553379.14 53377942.52 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

35 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

42313772.97 60107548.49 80708066.46 58068552.33 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

­57393790.69

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­24209437.33 ­6000000 38960383.61 ­11688115.08 27272268.53 6000000 33272268.53 0.892857143 29707382.61 ­17603873.33 ­6000000 26692907.61 ­8007872.282 18685035.32 6000000 24685035.32 0.797193878 19678759.03 ­19333318.5 ­6000000 29904734.35 ­8971420.306 20933314.05 6000000 26933314.05 0.711780248 19170600.95 ­26829338.49 ­6000000 43825914.34 ­13147774.3 30678140.04 6000000 36678140.04 0.635518078 23309621.08

­250000000

1

­250000000

221560201.4

0.635518078

140805513.4 ­17328122.91

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­26365286.35 ­6000000 42964103.22 ­12889230.97 30074872.26 6000000 36074872.26 0.892857143 32209707.37 ­23304955.06 ­6000000 37280630.83 ­11184189.25 26096441.58 6000000 32096441.58 0.797193878 25587086.72 ­27143682.7 ­6000000 44409696.44 ­13322908.93 31086787.51 6000000 37086787.51 0.711780248 26397642.8 ­18682279.88 ­6000000 28695662.64 ­8608698.792 20086963.85 6000000 26086963.85 0.635518078 16578737.14

­250000000

1

­250000000

117600201.4

0.635518078

74737054.04 ­74489771.93

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­14809820.54 ­6000000 21503952.43 ­6451185.73 15052766.7 6000000 21052766.7 0.892857143 18797113.13 ­21037641.97 ­6000000 33069906.52 ­9920971.956 23148934.56 6000000 29148934.56 0.797193878 23237352.17 ­28247823.26 ­6000000 46460243.2 ­13938072.96 32522170.24 6000000 38522170.24 0.711780248 27419319.88 ­20323993.32 ­6000000 31744559.02 ­9523367.705 22221191.31 6000000 28221191.31 0.635518078 17935077.27

­250000000

1

­250000000

286397789.5

0.635518078

182010972.9 19399835.32

14

Iteration

Cash Flow 

36 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

43743499.74 82211256.03 80565253.31 35652633.64 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

37 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

44460474.89 78732026.19 55471165.58 78039645.2 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

38 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

Iteration

1 2 3 4

96454299.46 97269630.82 38130777.08 70704255.84 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value Cash Flow 

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­15310224.91 ­6000000 22433274.83 ­6729982.449 15703292.38 6000000 21703292.38 0.892857143 19377939.63 ­28773939.61 ­6000000 47437316.42 ­14231194.93 33206121.49 6000000 39206121.49 0.797193878 31254880.02 ­28197838.66 ­6000000 46367414.65 ­13910224.4 32457190.26 6000000 38457190.26 0.711780248 27373068.41 ­12478421.77 ­6000000 17174211.86 ­5152263.559 12021948.31 6000000 18021948.31 0.635518078 11453273.96

­250000000

1

­250000000

110902842.2

0.635518078

70480761.15 ­90060076.84

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­15561166.21 ­6000000 22899308.68 ­6869792.603 16029516.07 6000000 22029516.07 0.892857143 19669210.78 ­27556209.17 ­6000000 45175817.02 ­13552745.11 31623071.92 6000000 37623071.92 0.797193878 29992882.59 ­19414907.95 ­6000000 30056257.62 ­9016877.287 21039380.34 6000000 27039380.34 0.711780248 19246096.84 ­27313875.82 ­6000000 44725769.38 ­13417730.81 31308038.57 6000000 37308038.57 0.635518078 23709932.98

­250000000

1

­250000000

275764206.3

0.635518078

175253138.5 17871261.66

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­33759004.81 ­6000000 56695294.65 ­17008588.39 39686706.25 6000000 45686706.25 0.892857143 40791702.01 ­34044370.79 ­6000000 57225260.04 ­17167578.01 40057682.03 6000000 46057682.03 0.797193878 36716902.12 ­13345771.98 ­6000000 18785005.1 ­5635501.531 13149503.57 6000000 19149503.57 0.711780248 13630238.4 ­24746489.54 ­6000000 39957766.3 ­11987329.89 27970436.41 6000000 33970436.41 0.635518078 21588826.47

­250000000

1

­250000000

124816354.5

0.635518078

79323049.77 ­57949281.22

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax ating Expenses 

Taxation @  30%

Net profit after  Add back: de­ tax preciation

Net cash flow

PVF @ 12%

Present value

Net  Present  Value

15

39 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

58378559.37 91518620.42 39056549.17 83639777.69 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

40 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

57822292.14 44966791 60919579.58 81391785.1 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

41 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

83328218.68 66590454.55 46803127.63 70394210.66 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 42 Year  Year  Year 

­20432495.78 ­32031517.15 ­13669792.21 ­29273922.19

­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000

31946063.59 53487103.27 19386756.96 48365855.5

­9583819.077 ­16046130.98 ­5816027.089 ­14509756.65

22362244.51 37440972.29 13570729.87 33856098.85

6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000

28362244.51 43440972.29 19570729.87 39856098.85

0.892857143 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078

25323432.6 34630877.14 13930058.96 25329271.35

­250000000

1

­250000000

117543714.4

0.635518078

74701155.48 ­76085204.46

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­20237802.25 ­6000000 31584489.89 ­9475346.967 22109142.92 6000000 28109142.92 0.892857143 25097449.04 ­15738376.85 ­6000000 23228414.15 ­6968524.244 16259889.9 6000000 22259889.9 0.797193878 17745447.95 ­21321852.85 ­6000000 33597726.73 ­10079318.02 23518408.71 6000000 29518408.71 0.711780248 21010620.27 ­28487124.79 ­6000000 46904660.32 ­14071398.1 32833262.22 6000000 38833262.22 0.635518078 24679240.19

­250000000

1

­250000000

296861049

0.635518078

188660563.4 27193320.84

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­29164876.54 ­6000000 48163342.14 ­14449002.64 33714339.5 6000000 39714339.5 0.892857143 35459231.7 ­23306659.09 ­6000000 37283795.46 ­11185138.64 26098656.82 6000000 32098656.82 0.797193878 25588852.7 ­16381094.67 ­6000000 24422032.96 ­7326609.888 17095423.07 6000000 23095423.07 0.711780248 16438865.96 ­24637973.73 ­6000000 39756236.93 ­11926871.08 27829365.85 6000000 33829365.85 0.635518078 21499173.58

­250000000

1

­250000000

170247073

0.635518078

108195092.7 ­42818783.39

Cash Flow  1 2 3

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  87442845.06 ­30604995.77 ­6000000 50837849.29 ­15251354.79 35586494.5 6000000 41586494.5 0.892857143 37130798.66 70705922.77 ­24747072.97 ­6000000 39958849.8 ­11987654.94 27971194.86 6000000 33971194.86 0.797193878 27081628.56 33212509.24 ­11624378.23 ­6000000 15588131 ­4676439.301 10911691.7 6000000 16911691.7 0.711780248 12037408.11

16

Year 

Year  Year 

4

87852597.85 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

43 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

74057209.9 81637355.79 53119150.17 49829226.58 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

44 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

71247939.79 67888862.36 84349483.9 87309481.19 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 45 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Cash Flow  1 2 3 4

37177963.05 65534720.97 47265719.34 86261574.4 Other Cash  Flows:

­30748409.25

­6000000

51104188.6

­15331256.58

35772932.02

6000000

41772932.02

0.635518078

26547453.49

­250000000

1

­250000000

110491870.4

0.635518078

70219581.16 ­76983130.02

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­25920023.46 ­6000000 42137186.43 ­12641155.93 29496030.5 6000000 35496030.5 0.892857143 31692884.38 ­28573074.53 ­6000000 47064281.26 ­14119284.38 32944996.88 6000000 38944996.88 0.797193878 31046713.08 ­18591702.56 ­6000000 28527447.61 ­8558234.284 19969213.33 6000000 25969213.33 0.711780248 18484373.1 ­17440229.3 ­6000000 26388997.27 ­7916699.182 18472298.09 6000000 24472298.09 0.635518078 15552587.86

­250000000

1

­250000000

237692855.4

0.635518078

151058106.7 ­2165334.874

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­24936778.93 ­6000000 40311160.87 ­12093348.26 28217812.61 6000000 34217812.61 0.892857143 30551618.4 ­23761101.83 ­6000000 38127760.54 ­11438328.16 26689432.38 6000000 32689432.38 0.797193878 26059815.35 ­29522319.37 ­6000000 48827164.54 ­14648149.36 34179015.17 6000000 40179015.17 0.711780248 28598629.38 ­30558318.42 ­6000000 50751162.78 ­15225348.83 35525813.94 6000000 41525813.94 0.635518078 26390405.48

­250000000

1

­250000000

215946870.9

0.635518078

137238140.4 ­1161390.981

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­13012287.07 ­6000000 18165675.99 ­5449702.796 12715973.19 6000000 18715973.19 0.892857143 16710690.35 ­22937152.34 ­6000000 36597568.63 ­10979270.59 25618298.04 6000000 31618298.04 0.797193878 25205913.62 ­16543001.77 ­6000000 24722717.57 ­7416815.272 17305902.3 6000000 23305902.3 0.711780248 16588680.91 ­30191551.04 ­6000000 50070023.36 ­15021007.01 35049016.35 6000000 41049016.35 0.635518078 26087391.99

17

Year  Year 

0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

46 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

38683450.87 81709023.2 80251176.22 88605495.54 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

47 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

93962281.1 72983451.71 78714016.47 72568646.9 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

48 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

58502936.11 92159778.02 46618714.83 32631122.16 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value 

­250000000

1

­250000000

112793781.8

0.635518078

71682487.47 ­93724835.66

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­13539207.8 ­6000000 19144243.07 ­5743272.92 13400970.15 6000000 19400970.15 0.892857143 17322294.77 ­28598158.12 ­6000000 47110865.08 ­14133259.52 32977605.56 6000000 38977605.56 0.797193878 31072708.51 ­28087911.68 ­6000000 46163264.54 ­13848979.36 32314285.18 6000000 38314285.18 0.711780248 27271351.4 ­31011923.44 ­6000000 51593572.1 ­15478071.63 36115500.47 6000000 42115500.47 0.635518078 26765161.93

­250000000

1

­250000000

103815492.2

0.635518078

65976622.1 ­81591861.29

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32886798.39 ­6000000 55075482.72 ­16522644.82 38552837.9 6000000 44552837.9 0.892857143 39779319.56 ­25544208.1 ­6000000 41439243.61 ­12431773.08 29007470.53 6000000 35007470.53 0.797193878 27907741.17 ­27549905.76 ­6000000 45164110.7 ­13549233.21 31614877.49 6000000 37614877.49 0.711780248 26773526.82 ­25399026.42 ­6000000 41169620.49 ­12350886.15 28818734.34 6000000 34818734.34 0.635518078 22127935.14

­250000000

1

­250000000

165199885.7

0.635518078

104987513.9 ­28423963.39

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­20476027.64 ­6000000 32026908.47 ­9608072.542 22418835.93 6000000 28418835.93 0.892857143 25373960.65 ­32255922.31 ­6000000 53903855.72 ­16171156.71 37732699 6000000 43732699 0.797193878 34863439.89 ­16316550.19 ­6000000 24302164.64 ­7290649.393 17011515.25 6000000 23011515.25 0.711780248 16379142.03 ­11420892.76 ­6000000 15210229.4 ­4563068.821 10647160.58 6000000 16647160.58 0.635518078 10579571.5

­250000000

1

­250000000

229223667

0.635518078

145675784.4

18

Net  Present  Value Iteration

Cash Flow 

49 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

92216491.92 56414815.1 78114718 79789668.63 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

50 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

47413399.38 101466009.1 45890235.23 33925542.28 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

51 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

94934964.67 79569053.84 38946413.35 89062043.39 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

­17128101.55

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32275772.17 ­6000000 53940719.74 ­16182215.92 37758503.82 6000000 43758503.82 0.892857143 39070092.7 ­19745185.28 ­6000000 30669629.81 ­9200888.944 21468740.87 6000000 27468740.87 0.797193878 21897912.04 ­27340151.3 ­6000000 44774566.7 ­13432370.01 31342196.69 6000000 37342196.69 0.711780248 26579438.01 ­27926384.02 ­6000000 45863284.61 ­13758985.38 32104299.23 6000000 38104299.23 0.635518078 24215971.02

­250000000

1

­250000000

280841454.2

0.635518078

178479821.3 40243235.11

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­16594689.78 ­6000000 24818709.59 ­7445612.878 17373096.72 6000000 23373096.72 0.892857143 20868836.35 ­35513103.2 ­6000000 59952905.94 ­17985871.78 41967034.16 6000000 47967034.16 0.797193878 38239025.95 ­16061582.33 ­6000000 23828652.9 ­7148595.87 16680057.03 6000000 22680057.03 0.711780248 16143216.61 ­11873939.8 ­6000000 16051602.48 ­4815480.744 11236121.74 6000000 17236121.74 0.635518078 10953866.97

­250000000

1

­250000000

234755244.4

0.635518078

149191201.8 ­14603852.28

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­33227237.63 ­6000000 55707727.03 ­16712318.11 38995408.92 6000000 44995408.92 0.892857143 40174472.25 ­27849168.84 ­6000000 45719885 ­13715965.5 32003919.5 6000000 38003919.5 0.797193878 30296491.95 ­13631244.67 ­6000000 19315168.68 ­5794550.603 13520618.07 6000000 19520618.07 0.711780248 13894390.37 ­31171715.19 ­6000000 51890328.2 ­15567098.46 36323229.74 6000000 42323229.74 0.635518078 26897177.64

­250000000

1

­250000000

141588359.7

0.635518078

89981962.26 ­48755505.53

19

Iteration

Cash Flow 

52 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

76444252.34 76484015.47 61430039.29 37591972.75 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

53 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

51491123.76 84813625.25 51802776.93 77245044.51 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

54 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

Iteration

1 2 3 4

86873519.93 39054258.88 77736981.58 78962266.14 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value Cash Flow 

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­26755488.32 ­6000000 43688764.02 ­13106629.21 30582134.82 6000000 36582134.82 0.892857143 32662620.37 ­26769405.42 ­6000000 43714610.06 ­13114383.02 30600227.04 6000000 36600227.04 0.797193878 29177476.91 ­21500513.75 ­6000000 33929525.54 ­10178857.66 23750667.88 6000000 29750667.88 0.711780248 21175937.75 ­13157190.46 ­6000000 18434782.29 ­5530434.687 12904347.6 6000000 18904347.6 0.635518078 12014054.66

­250000000

1

­250000000

157651849.3

0.635518078

100190600.3 ­54779310

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­18021893.32 ­6000000 27469230.45 ­8240769.134 19228461.31 6000000 25228461.31 0.892857143 22525411.89 ­29684768.84 ­6000000 49128856.41 ­14738656.92 34390199.49 6000000 40390199.49 0.797193878 32198819.75 ­18130971.92 ­6000000 27671805 ­8301541.501 19370263.5 6000000 25370263.5 0.711780248 18058052.44 ­27035765.58 ­6000000 44209278.93 ­13262783.68 30946495.25 6000000 36946495.25 0.635518078 23480165.67

­250000000

1

­250000000

141235650.6

0.635518078

89757809.25 ­63979741

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­30405731.98 ­6000000 50467787.95 ­15140336.39 35327451.57 6000000 41327451.57 0.892857143 36899510.33 ­13668990.61 ­6000000 19385268.27 ­5815580.481 13569687.79 6000000 19569687.79 0.797193878 15600835.29 ­27207943.55 ­6000000 44529038.02 ­13358711.41 31170326.62 6000000 37170326.62 0.711780248 26457104.29 ­27636793.15 ­6000000 45325472.99 ­13597641.9 31727831.09 6000000 37727831.09 0.635518078 23976718.72

­250000000

1

­250000000

103310202.2

0.635518078

65655501.16 ­81410330.21

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax ating Expenses 

Taxation @  30%

Net profit after  Add back: de­ tax preciation

Net cash flow

PVF @ 12%

Present value

Net  Present  Value

20

55 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

79593330.51 58428951.31 68163211.02 75274752.19 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

56 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

56674294.47 85269616.66 48275444.65 45890934.98 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

57 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

45078812.67 83164736.88 42997863.5 82829221.42 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 58 Year  Year  Year 

­27857665.68 ­20450132.96 ­23857123.86 ­26346163.27

­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000

45735664.83 31978818.35 38306087.16 42928588.92

­13720699.45 ­9593645.506 ­11491826.15 ­12878576.68

32014965.38 22385172.85 26814261.01 30050012.25

6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000

38014965.38 28385172.85 32814261.01 36050012.25

0.892857143 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078

33941933.38 22628486.01 23356542.84 22910434.51

­250000000

1

­250000000

233302214.7

0.635518078

148267775.2 1105171.899

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­19836003.06 ­6000000 30838291.4 ­9251487.421 21586803.98 6000000 27586803.98 0.892857143 24631074.98 ­29844365.83 ­6000000 49425250.83 ­14827575.25 34597675.58 6000000 40597675.58 0.797193878 32364218.42 ­16896405.63 ­6000000 25379039.02 ­7613711.707 17765327.32 6000000 23765327.32 0.711780248 16915690.57 ­16061827.24 ­6000000 23829107.73 ­7148732.32 16680375.41 6000000 22680375.41 0.635518078 14413788.6

­250000000

1

­250000000

102282065.7

0.635518078

65002101.83 ­96673125.6

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­15777584.44 ­6000000 23301228.24 ­6990368.471 16310859.77 6000000 22310859.77 0.892857143 19920410.51 ­29107657.91 ­6000000 48057078.97 ­14417123.69 33639955.28 6000000 39639955.28 0.797193878 31600729.65 ­15049252.23 ­6000000 21948611.28 ­6584583.383 15364027.89 6000000 21364027.89 0.711780248 15206493.07 ­28990227.5 ­6000000 47838993.92 ­14351698.18 33487295.74 6000000 39487295.74 0.635518078 25094890.31

­250000000

1

­250000000

276377819.1

0.635518078

175643100.5 17465624.06

Cash Flow  1 2 3

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  58378696.59 ­20432543.81 ­6000000 31946152.78 ­9583845.834 22362306.95 6000000 28362306.95 0.892857143 25323488.35 81402152.69 ­28490753.44 ­6000000 46911399.25 ­14073419.77 32837979.47 6000000 38837979.47 0.797193878 30961399.45 48058972.45 ­16820640.36 ­6000000 25238332.09 ­7571499.628 17666832.47 6000000 23666832.47 0.711780248 16845583.88

21

Year 

Year  Year 

4

31175955.78 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

59 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

96647837.92 68972062.16 39695889.07 46369390.56 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

60 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

106158651.7 61991273.62 39428794.3 50838415.81 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 61 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Cash Flow  1 2 3 4

92328408.35 57481326.82 75614281.75 82707026.42 Other Cash  Flows:

­10911584.52

­6000000

14264371.25

­4279311.376

9985059.878

6000000

15985059.88

0.635518078

10158794.54

­250000000

1

­250000000

200753543.7

0.635518078

127582506.3 ­39128227.44

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­33826743.27 ­6000000 56821094.65 ­17046328.39 39774766.25 6000000 45774766.25 0.892857143 40870327.01 ­24140221.76 ­6000000 38831840.4 ­11649552.12 27182288.28 6000000 33182288.28 0.797193878 26452717.06 ­13893561.17 ­6000000 19802327.89 ­5940698.368 13861629.53 6000000 19861629.53 0.711780248 14137115.59 ­16229286.69 ­6000000 24140103.86 ­7242031.158 16898072.7 6000000 22898072.7 0.635518078 14552139.16

­250000000

1

­250000000

112447238.8

0.635518078

71462253.11 ­82525448.06

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­37155528.09 ­6000000 63003123.59 ­18900937.08 44102186.51 6000000 50102186.51 0.892857143 44734095.1 ­21696945.77 ­6000000 34294327.85 ­10288298.36 24006029.5 6000000 30006029.5 0.797193878 23920623.01 ­13800078 ­6000000 19628716.29 ­5888614.888 13740101.4 6000000 19740101.4 0.711780248 14050614.27 ­17793445.53 ­6000000 27044970.27 ­8113491.082 18931479.19 6000000 24931479.19 0.635518078 15844405.75

­250000000

1

­250000000

180559602.3

0.635518078

114748891.5 ­36701370.38

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32314942.92 ­6000000 54013465.43 ­16204039.63 37809425.8 6000000 43809425.8 0.892857143 39115558.75 ­20118464.39 ­6000000 31362862.43 ­9408858.73 21954003.7 6000000 27954003.7 0.797193878 22284760.61 ­26464998.61 ­6000000 43149283.14 ­12944784.94 30204498.2 6000000 36204498.2 0.711780248 25769646.7 ­28947459.25 ­6000000 47759567.17 ­14327870.15 33431697.02 6000000 39431697.02 0.635518078 25059556.32

22

Year  Year 

0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

62 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

92211316.45 82105543.49 76626780.78 53343593.66 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

63 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

36630524.09 71984200.1 81806668.6 87034970.69 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

64 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

50905838.63 92509631.16 83814593.31 61025771.37 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value 

­250000000

1

­250000000

190826827.1

0.635518078

121273898.5 ­16496579.18

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32273960.76 ­6000000 53937355.69 ­16181206.71 37756148.98 6000000 43756148.98 0.892857143 39067990.16 ­28736940.22 ­6000000 47368603.27 ­14210580.98 33158022.29 6000000 39158022.29 0.797193878 31216535.62 ­26819373.27 ­6000000 43807407.51 ­13142222.25 30665185.26 6000000 36665185.26 0.711780248 26097554.65 ­18670257.78 ­6000000 28673335.88 ­8602000.764 20071335.12 6000000 26071335.12 0.635518078 16568804.79

­250000000

1

­250000000

154496948.1

0.635518078

98185603.55 ­38863511.22

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­12820683.43 ­6000000 17809840.66 ­5342952.198 12466888.46 6000000 18466888.46 0.892857143 16488293.27 ­25194470.04 ­6000000 40789730.07 ­12236919.02 28552811.05 6000000 34552811.05 0.797193878 27545289.42 ­28632334.01 ­6000000 47174334.59 ­14152300.38 33022034.21 6000000 39022034.21 0.711780248 27775113.18 ­30462239.74 ­6000000 50572730.95 ­15171819.29 35400911.67 6000000 41400911.67 0.635518078 26311027.83

­250000000

1

­250000000

253727366.4

0.635518078

161248328.3 9368052.026

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­17817043.52 ­6000000 27088795.11 ­8126638.533 18962156.58 6000000 24962156.58 0.892857143 22287639.8 ­32378370.91 ­6000000 54131260.25 ­16239378.08 37891882.18 6000000 43891882.18 0.797193878 34990339.75 ­29335107.66 ­6000000 48479485.65 ­14543845.7 33935639.96 6000000 39935639.96 0.711780248 28425399.7 ­21359019.98 ­6000000 33666751.39 ­10100025.42 23566725.97 6000000 29566725.97 0.635518078 18790188.88

­250000000

1

­250000000

243711274.9

0.635518078

154882921.1

23

Net  Present  Value Iteration

Cash Flow 

65 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

91295978.89 41922039.54 37874325.07 79340879.98 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

66 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

69365192.76 73107652.11 62974930.01 78512701.57 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

67 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

91192811.39 106237883.8 84143318.44 88390664.6 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

9376489.227

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­31953592.61 ­6000000 53342386.28 ­16002715.88 37339670.4 6000000 43339670.4 0.892857143 38696134.28 ­14672713.84 ­6000000 21249325.7 ­6374797.711 14874527.99 6000000 20874527.99 0.797193878 16641045.91 ­13256013.78 ­6000000 18618311.3 ­5585493.389 13032817.91 6000000 19032817.91 0.711780248 13547183.85 ­27769307.99 ­6000000 45571571.99 ­13671471.6 31900100.39 6000000 37900100.39 0.635518078 24086198.97

­250000000

1

­250000000

139463890.7

0.635518078

88631823.8 ­68397613.18

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­24277817.47 ­6000000 39087375.29 ­11726212.59 27361162.7 6000000 33361162.7 0.892857143 29786752.41 ­25587678.24 ­6000000 41519973.87 ­12455992.16 29063981.71 6000000 35063981.71 0.797193878 27952791.54 ­22041225.51 ­6000000 34933704.51 ­10480111.35 24453593.16 6000000 30453593.16 0.711780248 21676266.08 ­27479445.55 ­6000000 45033256.02 ­13509976.81 31523279.21 6000000 37523279.21 0.635518078 23846722.3

­250000000

1

­250000000

274103438.3

0.635518078

174197690.4 27460222.74

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­31917483.99 ­6000000 53275327.4 ­15982598.22 37292729.18 6000000 43292729.18 0.892857143 38654222.48 ­37183259.33 ­6000000 63054624.46 ­18916387.34 44138237.12 6000000 50138237.12 0.797193878 39969895.67 ­29450161.45 ­6000000 48693156.98 ­14607947.1 34085209.89 6000000 40085209.89 0.711780248 28531860.63 ­30936732.61 ­6000000 51453931.99 ­15436179.6 36017752.39 6000000 42017752.39 0.635518078 26703041.26

­250000000

1

­250000000

150514183.2

0.635518078

95654484.51 ­20486495.46

24

Iteration

Cash Flow 

68 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

74556728.8 39642476.21 79405232.32 61315862.11 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

69 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

78672201.31 66372852.65 81992388.89 38790070.58 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

70 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

Iteration

1 2 3 4

63444179.75 69373556.61 54903451.75 57215684.61 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value Cash Flow 

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­26094855.08 ­6000000 42461873.72 ­12738562.12 29723311.6 6000000 35723311.6 0.892857143 31895813.93 ­13874866.67 ­6000000 19767609.54 ­5930282.861 13837326.67 6000000 19837326.67 0.797193878 15814195.37 ­27791831.31 ­6000000 45613401.01 ­13684020.3 31929380.7 6000000 37929380.7 0.711780248 26997384 ­21460551.74 ­6000000 33855310.37 ­10156593.11 23698717.26 6000000 29698717.26 0.635518078 18874071.73

­250000000

1

­250000000

139571252.6

0.635518078

88700054.23 ­67718480.74

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­27535270.46 ­6000000 45136930.85 ­13541079.25 31595851.59 6000000 37595851.59 0.892857143 33567724.64 ­23230498.43 ­6000000 37142354.22 ­11142706.27 25999647.95 6000000 31999647.95 0.797193878 25509923.43 ­28697336.11 ­6000000 47295052.78 ­14188515.83 33106536.94 6000000 39106536.94 0.711780248 27835260.56 ­13576524.7 ­6000000 19213545.88 ­5764063.763 13449482.11 6000000 19449482.11 0.635518078 12360497.5

­250000000

1

­250000000

131739532.4

0.635518078

83722854.51 ­67003739.37

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­22205462.91 ­6000000 35238716.84 ­10571615.05 24667101.79 6000000 30667101.79 0.892857143 27381340.88 ­24280744.81 ­6000000 39092811.8 ­11727843.54 27364968.26 6000000 33364968.26 0.797193878 26598348.42 ­19216208.11 ­6000000 29687243.64 ­8906173.091 20781070.54 6000000 26781070.54 0.711780248 19062237.03 ­20025489.61 ­6000000 31190195 ­9357058.499 21833136.5 6000000 27833136.5 0.635518078 17688461.42

­250000000

1

­250000000

275454423.6

0.635518078

175056266 15786653.74

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax ating Expenses 

Taxation @  30%

Net profit after  Add back: de­ tax preciation

Net cash flow

PVF @ 12%

Present value

Net  Present  Value

25

71 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

52708895.57 43928094.15 33641826.95 31578300.73 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

72 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

84963332.86 73347625.03 48961615.39 87196298.42 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

73 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

47255462.04 87039595.43 55315959.64 67239237.81 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 74 Year  Year  Year 

­18448113.45 ­15374832.95 ­11774639.43 ­11052405.26

­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000

28260782.12 22553261.2 15867187.52 14525895.47

­8478234.636 ­6765978.36 ­4760156.255 ­4357768.642

19782547.48 15787282.84 11107031.26 10168126.83

6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000

25782547.48 21787282.84 17107031.26 16168126.83

0.892857143 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078

23020131.68 17368688.49 12176446.95 10275136.9

­250000000

1

­250000000

188899559.4

0.635518078

120049085 ­67110510.99

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­29737166.5 ­6000000 49226166.36 ­14767849.91 34458316.45 6000000 40458316.45 0.892857143 36123496.83 ­25671668.76 ­6000000 41675956.27 ­12502786.88 29173169.39 6000000 35173169.39 0.797193878 28039835.29 ­17136565.39 ­6000000 25825050 ­7747515.001 18077535 6000000 24077535 0.711780248 17137913.83 ­30518704.45 ­6000000 50677593.97 ­15203278.19 35474315.78 6000000 41474315.78 0.635518078 26357677.47

­250000000

1

­250000000

261407274.9

0.635518078

166129049 23787972.46

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­16539411.72 ­6000000 24716050.33 ­7414815.098 17301235.23 6000000 23301235.23 0.892857143 20804674.31 ­30463858.4 ­6000000 50575737.03 ­15172721.11 35403015.92 6000000 41403015.92 0.797193878 33006230.8 ­19360585.87 ­6000000 29955373.77 ­8986612.13 20968761.64 6000000 26968761.64 0.711780248 19195831.84 ­23533733.23 ­6000000 37705504.58 ­11311651.37 26393853.2 6000000 32393853.2 0.635518078 20586879.34

­250000000

1

­250000000

184207074.9

0.635518078

117066926.3 ­39339457.42

Cash Flow  1 2 3

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  107798782 ­37729573.68 ­6000000 64069208.27 ­19220762.48 44848445.79 6000000 50848445.79 0.892857143 45400398.03 41845885.19 ­14646059.82 ­6000000 21199825.38 ­6359947.613 14839877.76 6000000 20839877.76 0.797193878 16613422.96 47457447.84 ­16610106.74 ­6000000 24847341.09 ­7454202.328 17393138.77 6000000 23393138.77 0.711780248 16650774.11

26

Year 

Year  Year 

4

50080169.74 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

75 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

92235629.82 83227808.28 57590958.28 58245103.94 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

76 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

107859681.1 95285101.68 66064869.93 30111057.04 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 77 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Cash Flow  1 2 3 4

56842023.05 73027314.05 59075788.61 46688006.49 Other Cash  Flows:

­17528059.41

­6000000

26552110.33

­7965633.099

18586477.23

6000000

24586477.23

0.635518078

15625150.76

­250000000

1

­250000000

288923112.5

0.635518078

183615861.3 27905607.13

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­32282470.44 ­6000000 53953159.38 ­16185947.81 37767211.57 6000000 43767211.57 0.892857143 39077867.47 ­29129732.9 ­6000000 48098075.38 ­14429422.61 33668652.77 6000000 39668652.77 0.797193878 31623607.12 ­20156835.4 ­6000000 31434122.88 ­9430236.865 22003886.02 6000000 28003886.02 0.711780248 19932612.93 ­20385786.38 ­6000000 31859317.56 ­9557795.269 22301522.29 6000000 28301522.29 0.635518078 17986129.06

­250000000

1

­250000000

195250101.4

0.635518078

124084969.3 ­17294814.16

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­37750888.37 ­6000000 64108792.69 ­19232637.81 44876154.88 6000000 50876154.88 0.892857143 45425138.29 ­33349785.59 ­6000000 55935316.09 ­16780594.83 39154721.26 6000000 45154721.26 0.797193878 35997067.33 ­23122704.48 ­6000000 36942165.45 ­11082649.64 25859515.82 6000000 31859515.82 0.711780248 22676974.06 ­10538869.96 ­6000000 13572187.08 ­4071656.123 9500530.953 6000000 15500530.95 0.635518078 9850867.646

­250000000

1

­250000000

261520933.2

0.635518078

166201280.9 30151328.23

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­19894708.07 ­6000000 30947314.98 ­9284194.495 21663120.49 6000000 27663120.49 0.892857143 24699214.72 ­25559559.92 ­6000000 41467754.14 ­12440326.24 29027427.89 6000000 35027427.89 0.797193878 27923651.06 ­20676526.01 ­6000000 32399262.6 ­9719778.78 22679483.82 6000000 28679483.82 0.711780248 20413490.1 ­16340802.27 ­6000000 24347204.22 ­7304161.266 17043042.95 6000000 23043042.95 0.635518078 14644270.38

27

Year  Year 

0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

78 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

61351191.97 75671031.28 41595530.43 60418123.02 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

79 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

88698266.13 104658747.6 56885363.17 65573267.04 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

80 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

59039225.14 72567760.23 48090041.4 72528084.75 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value 

­250000000

1

­250000000

209396991.3

0.635518078

133075573.5 ­29243800.22

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­21472917.19 ­6000000 33878274.78 ­10163482.43 23714792.35 6000000 29714792.35 0.892857143 26531064.59 ­26484860.95 ­6000000 43186170.33 ­12955851.1 30230319.23 6000000 36230319.23 0.797193878 28882588.67 ­14558435.65 ­6000000 21037094.78 ­6311128.433 14725966.34 6000000 20725966.34 0.711780248 14752333.46 ­21146343.06 ­6000000 33271779.97 ­9981533.99 23290245.98 6000000 29290245.98 0.635518078 18614480.84

­250000000

1

­250000000

144006416.9

0.635518078

91518681.38 ­69700851.06

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­31044393.15 ­6000000 51653872.99 ­15496161.9 36157711.09 6000000 42157711.09 0.892857143 37640813.47 ­36630561.67 ­6000000 62028185.95 ­18608455.79 43419730.17 6000000 49419730.17 0.797193878 39397106.32 ­19909877.11 ­6000000 30975486.06 ­9292645.818 21682840.24 6000000 27682840.24 0.711780248 19704098.89 ­22950643.46 ­6000000 36622623.58 ­10986787.07 25635836.5 6000000 31635836.5 0.635518078 20105146.02

­250000000

1

­250000000

126413753.5

0.635518078

80338225.74 ­52814609.55

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­20663728.8 ­6000000 32375496.34 ­9712648.902 22662847.44 6000000 28662847.44 0.892857143 25591828.07 ­25398716.08 ­6000000 41169044.15 ­12350713.24 28818330.9 6000000 34818330.9 0.797193878 27756960.22 ­16831514.49 ­6000000 25258526.91 ­7577558.073 17680968.84 6000000 23680968.84 0.711780248 16855645.87 ­25384829.66 ­6000000 41143255.09 ­12342976.53 28800278.56 6000000 34800278.56 0.635518078 22116206.16

­250000000

1

­250000000

149281239.6

0.635518078

94870926.55

28

Net  Present  Value Iteration

Cash Flow 

81 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

60879616.36 47773368.23 86694665.3 54976759.61 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

82 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

62294970.73 44328569.43 45155767.92 44207395.61 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

83 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

97562882.01 92251630.57 31090894.51 85572619.28 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

­62808433.13

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­21307865.73 ­6000000 33571750.64 ­10071525.19 23500225.45 6000000 29500225.45 0.892857143 26339487.01 ­16720678.88 ­6000000 25052689.35 ­7515806.805 17536882.55 6000000 23536882.55 0.797193878 18763458.66 ­30343132.85 ­6000000 50351532.44 ­15105459.73 35246072.71 6000000 41246072.71 0.711780248 29358139.85 ­19241865.86 ­6000000 29734893.75 ­8920468.124 20814425.62 6000000 26814425.62 0.635518078 17041052.25

­250000000

1

­250000000

214685268.4

0.635518078

136436369.3 ­22061492.98

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­21803239.76 ­6000000 34491730.97 ­10347519.29 24144211.68 6000000 30144211.68 0.892857143 26914474.72 ­15514999.3 ­6000000 22813570.13 ­6844071.039 15969499.09 6000000 21969499.09 0.797193878 17513950.17 ­15804518.77 ­6000000 23351249.15 ­7005374.744 16345874.4 6000000 22345874.4 0.711780248 15905352.02 ­15472588.46 ­6000000 22734807.15 ­6820442.144 15914365 6000000 21914365 0.635518078 13926975.14

­250000000

1

­250000000

132575759.2

0.635518078

84254291.76 ­91484956.2

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­34147008.7 ­6000000 57415873.31 ­17224761.99 40191111.31 6000000 46191111.31 0.892857143 41242063.67 ­32288070.7 ­6000000 53963559.87 ­16189067.96 37774491.91 6000000 43774491.91 0.797193878 34896756.94 ­10881813.08 ­6000000 14209081.43 ­4262724.43 9946357.002 6000000 15946357 0.711780248 11350301.94 ­29950416.75 ­6000000 49622202.53 ­14886660.76 34735541.77 6000000 40735541.77 0.635518078 25888173.23

­250000000

1

­250000000

264137596.6

0.635518078

167864217.8 31241513.61

29

Iteration

Cash Flow 

84 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

102244468.8 71411953 70131474.11 73490637.6 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

85 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

79369790.9 94637882 65306691.57 56085929.16 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

86 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

Iteration

1 2 3 4

96185823.24 77312948.2 43840979.86 67392656.27 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value Cash Flow 

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­35785564.08 ­6000000 60458904.71 ­18137671.41 42321233.3 6000000 48321233.3 0.892857143 43143958.3 ­24994183.55 ­6000000 40417769.45 ­12125330.83 28292438.61 6000000 34292438.61 0.797193878 27337722.11 ­24546015.94 ­6000000 39585458.17 ­11875637.45 27709820.72 6000000 33709820.72 0.711780248 23993984.55 ­25721723.16 ­6000000 41768914.44 ­12530674.33 29238240.11 6000000 35238240.11 0.635518078 22394538.64

­250000000

1

­250000000

278357280

0.635518078

176901083.7 43771287.32

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­27779426.82 ­6000000 45590364.09 ­13677109.23 31913254.86 6000000 37913254.86 0.892857143 33851120.41 ­33123258.7 ­6000000 55514623.3 ­16654386.99 38860236.31 6000000 44860236.31 0.797193878 35762305.73 ­22857342.05 ­6000000 36449349.52 ­10934804.86 25514544.66 6000000 31514544.66 0.711780248 22431430.41 ­19630075.2 ­6000000 30455853.95 ­9136756.186 21319097.77 6000000 27319097.77 0.635518078 17361780.52

­250000000

1

­250000000

224058727.6

0.635518078

142393372 1800009.105

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­33665038.14 ­6000000 56520785.11 ­16956235.53 39564549.58 6000000 45564549.58 0.892857143 40682633.55 ­27059531.87 ­6000000 44253416.33 ­13276024.9 30977391.43 6000000 36977391.43 0.797193878 29478150.06 ­15344342.95 ­6000000 22496636.91 ­6748991.073 15747645.84 6000000 21747645.84 0.711780248 15479544.74 ­23587429.7 ­6000000 37805226.58 ­11341567.97 26463658.6 6000000 32463658.6 0.635518078 20631241.93

­250000000

1

­250000000

192615402.2

0.635518078

122410570.3 ­21317859.41

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax ating Expenses 

Taxation @  30%

Net profit after  Add back: de­ tax preciation

Net cash flow

PVF @ 12%

Present value

Net  Present  Value

30

87 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

65410166.78 49104136.94 41125904.88 78478374.46 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

88 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

63441565.16 93793374.96 83146691.1 82874268.34 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

89 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

71337790.76 70233835.84 68727413.87 51378510.01 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 90 Year  Year  Year 

­22893558.37 ­17186447.93 ­14394066.71 ­27467431.06

­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000 ­6000000

36516608.4 25917689.01 20731838.17 45010943.4

­10954982.52 ­7775306.703 ­6219551.451 ­13503283.02

25561625.88 18142382.31 14512286.72 31507660.38

6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000

31561625.88 24142382.31 20512286.72 37507660.38

0.892857143 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078

28180023.11 19246159.36 14600240.52 23836796.25

­250000000

1

­250000000

175026373.1

0.635518078

111232424.3 ­52904356.46

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­22204547.81 ­6000000 35237017.35 ­10571105.21 24665912.15 6000000 30665912.15 0.892857143 27380278.7 ­32827681.24 ­6000000 54965693.72 ­16489708.12 38475985.61 6000000 44475985.61 0.797193878 35455983.42 ­29101341.89 ­6000000 48045349.22 ­14413604.76 33631744.45 6000000 39631744.45 0.711780248 28209092.89 ­29005993.92 ­6000000 47868274.42 ­14360482.33 33507792.1 6000000 39507792.1 0.635518078 25107916.12

­250000000

1

­250000000

122900676.4

0.635518078

78105601.69 ­55741127.18

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­24968226.77 ­6000000 40369563.99 ­12110869.2 28258694.8 6000000 34258694.8 0.892857143 30588120.35 ­24581842.54 ­6000000 39651993.3 ­11895597.99 27756395.31 6000000 33756395.31 0.797193878 26910391.67 ­24054594.85 ­6000000 38672819.01 ­11601845.7 27070973.31 6000000 33070973.31 0.711780248 23539265.58 ­17982478.5 ­6000000 27396031.51 ­8218809.453 19177222.06 6000000 25177222.06 0.635518078 16000579.78

­250000000

1

­250000000

243064662.3

0.635518078

154471987.1 1510344.505

Cash Flow  1 2 3

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  53813743.8 ­18834810.33 ­6000000 28978933.47 ­8693680.04 20285253.43 6000000 26285253.43 0.892857143 23468976.27 99186919.9 ­34715421.97 ­6000000 58471497.94 ­17541449.38 40930048.56 6000000 46930048.56 0.797193878 37412347.38 79511962.28 ­27829186.8 ­6000000 45682775.48 ­13704832.65 31977942.84 6000000 37977942.84 0.711780248 27031949.57

31

Year 

Year  Year 

4

84103648.75 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

91 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

45063702.5 75504792.27 62440199.54 61718779.91 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

92 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

50143645.92 68314419.24 62169363.8 71749784.37 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration 93 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Cash Flow  1 2 3 4

86189668.15 93277019.58 35043956.65 65600614.41 Other Cash  Flows:

­29436277.06

­6000000

48667371.69

­14600211.51

34067160.18

6000000

40067160.18

0.635518078

25463404.65

­250000000

1

­250000000

189943382.1

0.635518078

120712453.2 ­15910868.96

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­15772295.87 ­6000000 23291406.62 ­6987421.987 16303984.64 6000000 22303984.64 0.892857143 19914272 ­26426677.3 ­6000000 43078114.98 ­12923434.49 30154680.48 6000000 36154680.48 0.797193878 28822289.93 ­21854069.84 ­6000000 34586129.7 ­10375838.91 24210290.79 6000000 30210290.79 0.711780248 21503088.26 ­21601572.97 ­6000000 34117206.94 ­10235162.08 23882044.86 6000000 29882044.86 0.635518078 18990579.73

­250000000

1

­250000000

127985945.6

0.635518078

81337382.2 ­79432387.89

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­17550276.07 ­6000000 26593369.85 ­7978010.954 18615358.89 6000000 24615358.89 0.892857143 21977999.01 ­23910046.73 ­6000000 38404372.5 ­11521311.75 26883060.75 6000000 32883060.75 0.797193878 26214174.71 ­21759277.33 ­6000000 34410086.47 ­10323025.94 24087060.53 6000000 30087060.53 0.711780248 21415375.4 ­25112424.53 ­6000000 40637359.84 ­12191207.95 28446151.89 6000000 34446151.89 0.635518078 21891152.26

­250000000

1

­250000000

202682412

0.635518078

128808337 ­29692961.61

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­30166383.85 ­6000000 50023284.3 ­15006985.29 35016299.01 6000000 41016299.01 0.892857143 36621695.54 ­32646956.85 ­6000000 54630062.73 ­16389018.82 38241043.91 6000000 44241043.91 0.797193878 35268689.34 ­12265384.83 ­6000000 16778571.82 ­5033571.547 11745000.28 6000000 17745000.28 0.711780248 12630540.69 ­22960215.04 ­6000000 36640399.36 ­10992119.81 25648279.55 6000000 31648279.55 0.635518078 20113053.81

32

Year  Year 

0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

94 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

66804369.2 42443260.6 80646406 56115196.74 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

95 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

77266710.1 52888474.49 39553015.47 62302095.44 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

96 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

66828567.82 88079305.68 89346620.31 56629478.18 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value 

­250000000

1

­250000000

270453155.4

0.635518078

171877869.6 26511849.03

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­23381529.22 ­6000000 37422839.98 ­11226851.99 26195987.99 6000000 32195987.99 0.892857143 28746417.84 ­14855141.21 ­6000000 21588119.39 ­6476435.816 15111683.57 6000000 21111683.57 0.797193878 16830104.89 ­28226242.1 ­6000000 46420163.9 ­13926049.17 32494114.73 6000000 38494114.73 0.711780248 27399350.52 ­19640318.86 ­6000000 30474877.88 ­9142463.364 21332414.52 6000000 27332414.52 0.635518078 17370243.55

­250000000

1

­250000000

104141081.7

0.635518078

66183540.14 ­93470343.06

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­27043348.53 ­6000000 44223361.56 ­13267008.47 30956353.09 6000000 36956353.09 0.892857143 32996743.83 ­18510966.07 ­6000000 28377508.42 ­8513252.526 19864255.89 6000000 25864255.89 0.797193878 20618826.45 ­13843555.42 ­6000000 19709460.06 ­5912838.017 13796622.04 6000000 19796622.04 0.711780248 14090844.54 ­21805733.4 ­6000000 34496362.03 ­10348908.61 24147453.42 6000000 30147453.42 0.635518078 19159251.67

­250000000

1

­250000000

128922078.8

0.635518078

81932311.81 ­81202021.7

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­23389998.74 ­6000000 37438569.08 ­11231570.72 26206998.36 6000000 32206998.36 0.892857143 28756248.53 ­30827756.99 ­6000000 51251548.69 ­15375464.61 35876084.08 6000000 41876084.08 0.797193878 33383357.85 ­31271317.11 ­6000000 52075303.2 ­15622590.96 36452712.24 6000000 42452712.24 0.711780248 30217002.04 ­19820317.36 ­6000000 30809160.82 ­9242748.245 21566412.57 6000000 27566412.57 0.635518078 17518953.55

­250000000

1

­250000000

256208712.4

0.635518078

162825268.6

33

Net  Present  Value Iteration

Cash Flow 

97 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

44584631.21 65347398.07 65032861.33 76265061.26 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

98 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

38918211.55 46687695.34 78195152.52 60401503.31 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Iteration

Cash Flow 

99 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

46278114.49 49644338.43 72835754.76 57853164.56 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

22700830.53

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­15604620.93 ­6000000 22980010.29 ­6894003.087 16086007.2 6000000 22086007.2 0.892857143 19719649.29 ­22871589.32 ­6000000 36475808.75 ­10942742.62 25533066.12 6000000 31533066.12 0.797193878 25137967.25 ­22761501.47 ­6000000 36271359.87 ­10881407.96 25389951.91 6000000 31389951.91 0.711780248 22342747.75 ­26692771.44 ­6000000 43572289.82 ­13071686.95 30500602.87 6000000 36500602.87 0.635518078 23196793

­250000000

1

­250000000

175658113.5

0.635518078

111633906.7 ­47968935.98

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­13621374.04 ­6000000 19296837.51 ­5789051.252 13507786.25 6000000 19507786.25 0.892857143 17417666.3 ­16340693.37 ­6000000 24347001.97 ­7304100.591 17042901.38 6000000 23042901.38 0.797193878 18369659.9 ­27368303.38 ­6000000 44826849.14 ­13448054.74 31378794.4 6000000 37378794.4 0.711780248 26605487.54 ­21140526.16 ­6000000 33260977.15 ­9978293.146 23282684.01 6000000 29282684.01 0.635518078 18609675.07

­250000000

1

­250000000

251460262.1

0.635518078

159807542.6 ­9189968.61

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­16197340.07 ­6000000 24080774.42 ­7224232.326 16856542.09 6000000 22856542.09 0.892857143 20407626.87 ­17375518.45 ­6000000 26268819.98 ­7880645.994 18388173.98 6000000 24388173.98 0.797193878 19442102.99 ­25492514.17 ­6000000 41343240.59 ­12402972.18 28940268.42 6000000 34940268.42 0.711780248 24869792.91 ­20248607.6 ­6000000 31604556.96 ­9481367.089 22123189.88 6000000 28123189.88 0.635518078 17872795.59

­250000000

1

­250000000

184034705.5

0.635518078

116957382.4 ­50450299.24

34

Iteration

Cash Flow 

100 Year  Year  Year  Year 

Year  Year 

1 2 3 4

84055011.86 68066325.27 64649712.98 76874589.71 Other Cash  Flows: 0 Initial Invest­ ment 4 Terminal Value  Net  Present  Value

Cost of Goods  Fixed Cost  Net profit be­ Taxation @  Net profit after  Add back: de­ Net cash flow PVF @ 12% Present value Net  Present  Sold and Oper­ (Depreciation) fore tax 30% tax preciation Value ating Expenses  ­29419254.15 ­6000000 48635757.71 ­14590727.31 34045030.4 6000000 40045030.4 0.892857143 35754491.42 ­23823213.84 ­6000000 38243111.42 ­11472933.43 26770178 6000000 32770178 0.797193878 26124185.27 ­22627399.54 ­6000000 36022313.44 ­10806694.03 25215619.41 6000000 31215619.41 0.711780248 22218661.32 ­26906106.4 ­6000000 43968483.31 ­13190544.99 30777938.32 6000000 36777938.32 0.635518078 23373044.69

­250000000

1

­250000000

226289573.2

0.635518078

143811114.7 1281497.438

35

Monte Carlo Simulation and Investment Appraisal

William M. Kinai ([email protected]; +254 020 2323 858) is the founder and principal of Concert Management Consulting, a firm that provides business assessment, business planning, interim management, and executive training services to growing businesses and nonprofit organizations in the East African region including Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.

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